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Periscope 2004 NEWSLETTER OF AFIO NATIONAL OPINIONS, PERISCOPE EVENTS, PLANS & NEWS Association of Former Intelligence Offi cers Volume XXVI, Number 1, 2004 Report on AFIO National Special Events SPEAKER PROGRAMS 2003-04 20 AUGUST 2004 As we go to press, James L. Pavitt, the recently retired deputy director of operations at CIA, and Peter Earnest, AFIO Chairman and Executive Director of the International Spy Museum will address AFIO mem- bers at the August 20th luncheon in Tyson’s Corner, Vir- Intelligence Community Restructuring ginia. Pavitt was in the face of Multi-National Terrorism appointed Deputy Director for Opera- The Wisdom of Rebuilding the House during a Storm tions on August 1, 1999, after serving AFIO’s as Associate Deputy National Intelligence Symposium 2004 Director for Oper- ations from July at The National Security Agency / 1997 through July 1999. He joined the Central Security Service, Agency in 1973 as a Career Trainee. the National Cryptologic Museum He served in a variety of intelligence and the Conference Center at the assignments in Europe, Asia and at CIA Maritime Institute, Headquarters in Langley, Virginia. 28 - 31 October 2004 Mr. Pavitt served in the United Linthicum Heights, Maryland States Army from 1969-1971 as an intelligence offi cer. From 1971 until f you have not made your plane already made, and those proposed 1973, he was a legislative assistant and hotel reservations, NOW and their impact on the way we do with the House of Representatives. He is the time to do so. The AFIO business. We will also look at intel- received a Bachelor of Arts in History National Intelligence Sympo- ligence lessons learned in Iraq and in from the University of Missouri and Isium 2004, 28th through 31st Octo- the War on Terrorism, and those hot was a National Defense Education Act ber 2004, will closely examine the spots that loom on the horizon: China Fellow at Clark University. Intelligence Community as it faces and Korea. Following release of the 9/11 scores of restructuring plans. Sessions On Thursday evening, 28 Octo- Commission Report, he will speak will include distinguished speakers ber, will be registration and an infor- on the impact on clandestine activi- from the intelligence community, law mal reception at the Maritime Insti- ties by the anticipated restructuring enforcement, and homeland security tute which also serves as the confer- of the intelligence community...what talking about the incredible changes Symposium on page 16 Special Events continues on page 8 2004 • ASSOCIATION OF FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICER’S PERISCOPE NEWSLETTER • PAGE 1 PERISCOPE Book Center, she brought her publishing ISSN 1044-3819, in 2004 and organizational wizardry to AFIO in is published twice per year by the 2000, streamlining our membership pro- Association of Former Intelligence Offi cers President’s cesses and revamping the publications with impressive results. The more recent issues 6723 Whittier Avenue, Suite 303A, Message McLean, VA 22101-4533 of the Intelligencer and Periscope—the Voice: 703-790-0320; Fax:703-790-0264; fi nest in the series—are attributable to e-mail: afi o@afi o.com S. Eugene Poteat Elizabeth and her editorial and artistic Web: www.afi o.com expertise. Editors— Senior: Elizabeth Bancroft A graduate of Harvard, she has been Copy: Mary Lynne McElroy y now, most of you are aware a Life Member of AFIO since the early Lorenzo Simi of the dilemma we faced 1980s when she began work in the open- Robert E. Redding finding a replacement for source side of the fi eld. She worked on © 2004, AFIO, All Rights Reserved B Roy Jonkers, our Executive Director of AFIO Board sub-committees in the 1990s A F I O P UBLICATIONS seven years, to whom we owed so much in and joined the staff full-time in 2000, WINs – Weekly Intelligence Notes—News, Issues, Com- breathing new life into AFIO. Since Roy’s bringing a high level of computer database mentaries, Book Reviews, delivered by e-mail. e-BBNs – e-Bulletin Board Notices—Upcoming Events, passing, I have interviewed over a dozen skills, immediately put to use. Career announcements, Requests by Research- ers/Authors for assistance—delivered monthly by well-qualified candidates. The choice Though she did not apply for the posi- e-mail. seemed exceedingly diffi cult though there tion, she became the clear choice and your Website – www.afi o.com – Fast-Breaking National and For- eign News, Events, Scholarships, Legislation, WINs, was less urgency than one might expect, AFIO Board of Directors unanimously and Careers, Store...and more. Updated daily. Periscope – AFIO Newsletter for National and Chapter since it was evident AFIO was in good enthusiastically endorsed her appointment news and internal Association issues and policies of hands and running exceptionally well as our new Executive Director. I am sure interest to members and donors. 2x/year. Intelligencer – Journal of U.S. Intelligence Studies— under the dedication and management of you will all join me in welcoming her to the AFIO’s fl agship publication—substantive articles ranging from historic surveys of intelligence prac- the Acting Executive Director, Elizabeth job she has been doing so well since Roy’s tices, to current cutting-edge concerns and direc- Bancroft. untimely death last October. tions. Includes book reviews, essays, reprints and columnists. 2x/year. Known to many researchers, authors and intelligence bibliophiles for her years C O N T E N T S at the helm of the National Intelligence National Intelligence Symposium 2004 ............. 1 conundrum remains. Report on AFIO National Special Events ............ 1 James Pavitt / Peter Earnest Luncheon ........... 1 Re-org ideas are addressed in many Ryszard Kuklinski Panel / Luncheon ................. 8 of our recent Weekly Intelligence Notes— Michael Ledeen / Richard Mobley which are now under the editorship of sea- Luncheon ................................................... 9 What’s New soned journalist who at this time wishes to Stewart Alsop Media Awards .......................... 9 Boston Pops Spy Music Gala ............................10 be known only as DKR. With new plans President’s Message — Gene Poteat ................... 2 in AFIO and different Intelligence Community What’s New in AFIO — Elizabeth Bancroft ......... 2 architects speaking out each week, the Opinions & Letters - Symposium gives a perfect opportunity Analysis of Analyses by Ward Warren ............ 3 Don’t Blame the Intelligence Analysts for to compare the various schemes and the Politics by Dick Gay ....................................... 4 implications of their enactment. Throw in Economic Statecraft by Norman Bailey ............ 5 Elizabeth Bancroft an election year, and the fogging grows. 1986 by Dwayne Anderson ................................ 6 Executive Director The community sees clearly on one Current AFIO Chapters .......................................12 Composition of AFIO Membership ....................12 issue: the demand for new recruits has Chapter Activities - Recent & Forthcoming .......13 ystery and conjecture hang in the never been stronger – with weekly requests Weekly Intelligence Notes - Notice ....................14 air. Will they radically change to our offi ce for scientists, engineers and IT Corporate Sponsorships the Intelligence Community? pros, analysts, language instructors, econo- by Robert Redding ...........................................15 M AFIO Corporate Sponsor List .............................15 Will it result in an entity that has increased mists, and administrative support. All with Symposium/Convention 2004 power, enhanced analysis, and more timely the ability to make good decisions, and Maps and Directions ........................................17 output, or do we get a ‘construction’ that dedicated to serving the nation. Agenda .............................................................18 defi es logic and fails to work. Would not AFIO’s mission for almost 30 years Registration Form ............................................19 New Intelligence Scholarships ...........................21 be the fi rst time. has been keeping you informed of these Donors to AFIO in 2003 ......................................22 But tinkering with the engine in the needs – and hot issues – through our con- Special Volunteers ............................................24 middle of a race can have unintended con- ferences, publications, luncheons, and AFIO’s Academic Exchange Program ................25 sequences. It was this concern that drives emails. Most people talk wistfully about Lockwood & Kent Intelligence Writing Award Recipients ........................................................26 the focus of AFIO’s 2004 Intelligence making the world a safer place — AFIO Book Reviews — Selections Symposium. Sub-titled “The Wisdom members are out there, doing it. by Joseph Goulden and André Kesteloot ........27 of Fixing the House in the Middle of a Forthcoming Books — Elizabeth Bancroft ...........31 Storm”…yes, the analogy differs, but the PAGE 2 • ASSOCIATION OF FORMER INTELLIGENCE OFFICER’S PERISCOPE NEWSLETTER • 2004 our tent.” same mélange, mishmash, olla podria, OPINIONS Two keen minds looking at the or potpourri of analysts, collectors, same set of facts reached two con- and kibitzers who have axes to grind, clusions wildly at variance with each oxen to gore, and scores to settle. The other. product should be unusable. In fact, And that’s the story of analysis. it is quite good. Thomas Powers in Analysis of Analyses The analyst sees what he wants to his book, The Man
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