September 10, 2017 5 News & Analysis Levant tensions rising Israel’s muscle flexing is geared towards Hezbollah

Mamoon Alabbasi aims of the exercise is to train the Israeli military to severely damage Hezbollah’s infrastructure and re- London duce the number and reach of its rocket arsenal. srael appears to be flexing its Israel’s outgoing air force chief muscles with its largest mili- Amir Eshel admitted that, over the tary drill in almost 20 years past five years, Israel had carried and air strikes in Syria that out nearly 100 air strikes in Syria. have Lebanon’s Hezbollah in The targets of the strikes were Iits sights. suspected arms convoys either be- Israeli officials said the ten-day longing to or possibly heading to exercise would involve tens of Hezbollah. thousands of soldiers, including Israel’s latest attack, which tar- thousands of reserves, deploying geted a Syrian weapons manufac- aircraft, boats and submarines. turing plant, is said to have the aim More than 18 months were report- of preventing the site’s arms reach- edly spent to prepare for the drill. ing Hezbollah. The drill is to simulate “sce- Some say that the attack was a narios we’ll be facing in the next message to the United States and confrontation with Hezbollah,” an Russia, which — from the view of unidentified defence source told Tel Aviv — are not taking Israeli se- Agence France-Presse. The last curity into consideration. large-scale Israeli drill was in 1998, “The attack attributed to Israel when it simulated war with Syria. — the first to be reported since the [de-escalation zones] agreement was reached — may be interpreted A woman and a girl walk past a replica of the Dome of the Rock emblazoned Israel appears less as an Israeli signal of sorts to the Conflicting interests. world powers: You still need to with the emblem of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the “Garden of Iran” Park in the Lebanese Maroun concerned with the al-Ras village along the southern border with Israel. (AFP) Assad regime than take our security interests into ac- count; we’re capable of disrupting with the presence of the process of a future settlement ror groups.” armed militant groups, most of torate of Iran. It may become just Iranian proxies, such in Syria if you insist on leaving us Israel appears less concerned them aided and funded by Iran. another proxy with the goal of as Hezbollah, inside out of the picture,” wrote military with the Assad regime than with They are grave threats but not ex- spilling as much Israeli blood as Syria. analyst Amos Harel in Haaretz. the presence of Iranian proxies, istential ones,” said Israeli Military possible,” the source added. There are fears, however, that such as Hezbollah, inside Syria. Intelligence Director Major-Gener- Critics, however, accuse Israel Israel said it suspects Hezbol- things might get out of control. Despite occupying the Syrian al Herzl Halevi. of inflating its external threats lah is preparing to attack the Jew- “To a great extent, Hezbollah, Golan Heights since 1967 and offi- Israel also appears to be wary of to deflect attention from its poli- ish state, saying that the Lebanese like Israel, is worried about a war cially being in a state of war with a “Syria that is connected to Iraq, cies towards the Palestinians and movement has become mightier and would prefer to avoid one Damascus, Israel has enjoyed that is connected to Iran, which the occupied territories. They add militarily than it was during the — but in the Middle East things relative peace with Syria. The Syr- are both connected to Hezbollah’s that, by highlighting the mutual war between the two sides in 2006. sometimes happen when you don’t ian border was the quietest among Secretary-General Hassan Nasral- threat that Israel and some Arab Hezbollah now has a presence in exactly intend them,” Harel wrote. those of Israel’s neighbours. Prior lah’s Lebanon,” an Israeli security countries face from Iran, Tel Aviv Syria, fighting alongside forces loy- The Syrian Foreign Ministry filed to the March 2011 popular uprising source told Al-Monitor website on hopes to have a better standing al to Syrian President Bashar Assad a complaint with the UN Security against Assad, the United States condition of anonymity. that would end its relative isola- against rebels opposing his rule, Council and UN Secretary-General was secretly courting the Syrian “If, in the past, the Syrian ruler tion in the region. granting the Lebanese movement Antonio Guterres that said: “The leader to distance himself from was independent and it was im- more opportunities to strike Israel Israeli aggression has become a Iran and possibly establish ties possible to pit him against Israel Mamoon Alabbasi is Deputy from inside Syria. norm. Those who attack the Syrian with Tel Aviv. directly, it may soon be revealed Managing Editor and Online Israeli officials said one of the Army are direct supporters of ter- “The threats to Israel are from that Syria has become a protec- Editor of The Arab Weekly. Whose stability and security are we talking about?

ince the ceasefire ac- whether the next Syria would be Russia’s planned arrangements charge of dealing with “the Iranian cords following the secular or Islamic, a confederation for Syria suggest additional condition in Syria.” This is what October 1973 war, Syria or separate states. grounds for “surgical” operations was said to the Israeli security del- Mohamad Kawas has never been a source All the clamour and the number in accordance with the interests egation during an official visit to is a Lebanese writer. of worry to Israel. As of cooks in the Syrian kitchen of all countries in the region, Washington last month and why a matter of fact, the have never been a problem or especially Syria’s neighbours, and Netanyahu went to see Putin. SSyrian regime was very keen to hindrance to its agents in the field always with America’s blessings. Following Israel’s failed talks ensure that nothing, not even a or its air force. Taking advantage Hence, the creation of “de-escala- with the United States and Russia, spontaneous outburst by an Arab of international immunity, Israel tion zones.” analyses and comments in the citizen sick of the Israeli occupa- carried out assassinations and Iran’s influence in Syria is in Israeli media suggested that an Is- tion, would disturb the ceasefire. air strikes against targets of its direct conflict with the agendas of raeli military intervention in Syria The Syrian regime made sure that choice, the latest of which was the various countries with stakes had become unavoidable, regard- sort of frustration was channelled near Masyaf in Hama. in Syria. The Trump administra- less of Israel’s agreements with through the Lebanese-Israeli The perspectives and agendas tion has always condemned Iran’s Washington and Moscow. Such border alone. of the United States and Russia presence in Syria and Jordan an intervention would reshuffle Syria’s admirable show of self- have diverged many times and wants to keep Iran-backed forces the cards in Syria so that Israel discipline and restraint produced on many international issues in Syria far from its borders. becomes a formal part of any a pro-Syrian regime lobby among but there is one thing both super Turkey is trying to find common agreements about Syria’s future. elite political and military circles powers always agree on: Israel’s ground with Iran on the Kurd- Such a move by Israel within in Israel. This lobby made sure the security. ish issue — neither want the the current context is highly risky Syrian regime was spared from US Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin establishment of a Kurdish entity but it seems that Israel is too anx- and Western plans that had wiped Netanyahu has become a frequent anywhere in the region — and ious to wait for the development out entrenched regimes in Iraq, traveller to Russia, more so in fact Israel considers the presence of of an antidote to the Syrian sick- Libya, Afghanistan and Yugoslavia. than to the United States. Hezbollah in Syria an imminent ness. Israel’s military manoeuvres The Syrian regime was aware In September 2015, Russian threat that must be dealt with in northern Israel might as well of the paramount importance of President Vladimir Putin was regardless of any future arrange- be the rattling of chains needed to Israel’s security to the world’s careful not to start Russia’s ments in Syria. draw everybody’s attention. major powers. Just in case its military campaign in Syria before It does not look like Washington However, Israel needn’t worry attention lapsed momentarily, reaching agreements with his and Moscow have reached a com- too much for its security will Rami Makhlouf, a Syrian business Israeli “partner.” It was also out of prehensive agreement on Iran’s always be a fundamental issue at tycoon and maternal cousin of concern for Israel’s security that future role in Syria or the entire stake for any plans for the Mid- Syrian President Bashar Assad, Russia offered in 2013 to elimi- region for that matter. Both coun- dle East by either Washington or reminded the world of that simple nate the Syrian regime’s chemical tries are contending with other Moscow. fact, declaring in April 2011 in weapons. divisive issues between them but It’s interesting, then, how Iran’s influence in the New York Times: “If there is None of Israel’s actions inside Putin knows that his long-term Makhlouf’s remark that there will Syria is in direct no stability here [Syria], there’s Syria would have been possible ambitions in Syria will collide be no stability in Israel without no way there will be stability in without coordination with or with Iran’s agenda there. stability in Syria has flipped conflict with the Israel.” complete cover from Russian air For the time being, both Russia around to become an Israeli secu- agendas of the Israel was not overly interested defence in Syria. Now that the and Iran need to cooperate to rity axiom, namely that there will various countries in the heated debate about the Americans are present on Syrian counteract the impression created be no stability in Syria as long as probable shape of Syria’s future soil, nothing indicates a change in and propagated by the Trump Israel’s security and stability are with stakes in Syria. regime. It could not care less the rules of the game. administration that Russia is in not guaranteed.