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August 30Th, 2021 EDITION METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY

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August 30Th, 2021 EDITION METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY NORTH AMERICAN TRACKER August 30th, 2021 EDITION METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY Leger, the largest Canadian-owned polling and marketing research firm, in collaboration with The Canadian Press, conducted this web survey with a representative sample of 2,005 Canadians and 1,004 Americans, over the age of 18, selected from LEO’s (Leger Opinion) representative panel. The questionnaire consisted of 25 questions and was completed in 10 minutes on average. Data collection took place from August 27th, 2021, to August 30th, 2021, via Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing technology (CAWI). Using 2016 Census reference variables, the Canadian data was then analyzed and weighted by our statisticians according to gender, age, mother tongue, region, education level, presence of children in households, and according to the party they voted for in the last federal election in order to render a representative sample of the general population. Using 2010 U.S. Census reference variables, the American data was then analyzed and weighted by our statisticians according to gender, age, region, race/ethnicity, household size and education level in order to render a representative sample of the general population. 2 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY The LEO (Leger Opinion) panel is the largest Canadian panel with over 400,000 representative panelists from all regions of Canada. LEO was created by Leger based on a representative Canadian sample of Canadian citizens with Internet access. LEO's panelists were randomly selected (RDD) through Leger's call centre, panelists from more hard-to-reach target groups were also added to the panel through targeted recruitment campaigns. The double opt-in selection process, a model to detect fraud and the renewal of 25% of the panel each year ensures complete respondent quality. To ensure a higher response rate and reach people on their mobile devices, Leger has also developed a high-performance Apple and Android application. In fact, Leger is the only Canadian research firm offering both the number and quality of panelists. Most competing polling firms in Canada and the United States also use the LEO panel. 3 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error ±2.18%, 19 times out of 20 for the Canadian sample and of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20 for the American sample. The results presented in this study comply with the public opinion research standards and disclosure requirements of CRIC (the Canadian Research and Insights Council) and the global ESOMAR network. Leger is a founding member of CRIC and is actively involved in raising quality standards in the survey industry. President Jean-Marc Léger is a member of the CRIC’s Board of Directors and the Canadian representative of ESOMAR. 4 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY Leger is the polling firm that has presented the most accurate data, on average, over the last ten years in Canada. During the last federal election in 2019, Leger was once again the most accurate firm in the country. This accuracy is attributed to the quality of the LEO panel and rigorous application of methodological rules by Leger's 600 employees, including 200 professionals in Leger's eight offices across Canada (Montreal, Toronto, Quebec City, Winnipeg, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver) and in the United States (Philadelphia). Poll aggregator 338Canada.com gave Leger the highest rating among all polling firms in Canada for the accuracy of its studies. See https://338canada.com/pollster-ratings.htm 2019 CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION LEGER SURVEY Published in Le Journal de Montréal 33% 33% 18% 8% 6% 2% October 20, 2019 OFFICIAL RESULTS 2019 Canadian Federal Election 33% 34% 16% 8% 7% 2% 5 NOTES ON READING THIS REPORT METHODOLOGY The numbers presented have been rounded. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers. In this report, data in bold red characters indicates a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicates a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents. A more detailed methodology is presented in the appendix. If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-President at the following e-mail address: [email protected] or Jack Jedwab, President & CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies: [email protected]. For any questions related to our services, or to request an interview, please contact us by clicking here. 6 FEDERAL POLITICS VOTING INTENTIONS - FEDERAL ELECTIONS CTC37. If federal elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for the ... Base: All respondents (n=2,005), except for the Bloc Québécois, Quebecers only and the Maverick Party, Albertans and Saskatchewanians only TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL Sub- August Decided ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural Gap Canada urban 16th voters 2021 Weighted n= 2,005 1,710 114 390 659 113 198 237 857 854 468 557 686 666 678 357 1,644 Unweighted n= 2,005 1,723 169 425 511 176 181 261 890 833 462 605 656 703 672 342 1,678 ... Erin O’Toole’s Conservative 29% 34% 37% 20% 35% 53% 52% 26% 37% 31% 25% 34% 39% 29% 35% 40% +4 Party of Canada 30% ... Justin Trudeau’s Liberal 26% 30% 35% 33% 34% 19% 12% 32% 28% 32% 29% 28% 33% 35% 29% 24% -5 Party of Canada 35% ... Jagmeet Singh’s New 20% 24% 24% 13% 25% 22% 28% 35% 21% 26% 35% 25% 15% 28% 22% 19% +4 Democratic Party of Canada 20% ... Yves-François Blanchet’s 6% 7% 29% - Bloc Québécois - - - - - - - - - - - - - 7% ... Maxime Bernier’s People’s 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 4% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% +1 Party of Canada* 2% ... Annamie Paul’s Green Party 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% -3 of Canada 5% … another party 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% - I would not vote 3% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I would cancel my vote 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I don’t know 9% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Refusal 1% - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - *People’s Party of Canada was added to the surveyed parties starting July 5, 2021. 8 **The Maverick party was included in the voting intention question but are not presented in the table since they are at 0% overall (3% in Alberta). EVOLUTION OF VOTING INTENTIONS IN CANADA 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Others 0% 08- 08- 04- 04- 04- 05- 05- 05- 05- 06- 06- 06- 06- 06- 07- 07- 07- 07- 08- 08- 08- 08- 08- 09- 09- 09- 09- 10- 10- 10- 10- 11- 11- 11- 11- 12- 01- 01- 02- 02- 03- 03- 03- 04- 04- 05- 05- 06- 06- 07- 07- 08- 16- 30- 13-2020-2027-2004-2011-2019-2025-2001-2008-2015-2022-2029-2006-2013-2020-2027-2003-2010-2007-2024-2031-2008-2013-2021-2028-2005-2013-2019-2026-2002-2009-2016-2030-2014-2004-2118-2101-2115-2101-2115-2129-2112-2126-2110-2125-2107-2121-2105-2119-2102-21 20212021 LPC 39% 42% 43% 44% 41% 44% 41% 40% 46% 40% 39% 40% 39% 38% 39% 35% 33% 36% 35% 38% 35% 34% 35% 35% 40% 36% 37% 36% 37% 34% 36% 35% 34% 35% 35% 36% 37% 36% 35% 36% 35% 35% 34% 33% 34% 32% 34% 33% 34% 36% 35% 30% CPC 28% 29% 28% 25% 28% 25% 27% 27% 25% 27% 28% 28% 25% 26% 28% 29% 31% 29% 32% 30% 29% 32% 31% 30% 30% 32% 29% 29% 30% 31% 28% 31% 30% 29% 30% 29% 28% 29% 28% 31% 28% 30% 28% 30% 30% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29% 30% 34% NDP 18% 14% 14% 15% 17% 15% 15% 18% 15% 16% 19% 17% 20% 19% 17% 20% 20% 15% 18% 18% 21% 19% 18% 19% 17% 20% 21% 18% 18% 21% 21% 18% 20% 23% 20% 21% 22% 20% 23% 19% 22% 18% 20% 19% 19% 22% 20% 19% 22% 20% 20% 24% BQ 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% GPC 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 2% PPC* 4% 3% 3% 2% 3% Others 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% *People’s Party of Canada was added to the surveyed parties starting July 5, 2021.
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