NORTH AMERICAN TRACKER

August 30th, 2021 EDITION METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY

Leger, the largest Canadian-owned polling and marketing research firm, in collaboration with , conducted this web survey with a representative sample of 2,005 and 1,004 Americans, over the age of 18, selected from LEO’s (Leger Opinion) representative panel. The questionnaire consisted of 25 questions and was completed in 10 minutes on average. Data collection took place from August 27th, 2021, to August 30th, 2021, via Computer-Assisted Web Interviewing technology (CAWI).

Using 2016 Census reference variables, the Canadian data was then analyzed and weighted by our statisticians according to gender, age, mother tongue, region, education level, presence of children in households, and according to the party they voted for in the last federal election in order to render a representative sample of the general population. Using 2010 U.S. Census reference variables, the American data was then analyzed and weighted by our statisticians according to gender, age, region, race/ethnicity, household size and education level in order to render a representative sample of the general population.

2 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY

The LEO (Leger Opinion) panel is the largest Canadian panel with over 400,000 representative panelists from all regions of . LEO was created by Leger based on a representative Canadian sample of Canadian citizens with Internet access.

LEO's panelists were randomly selected (RDD) through Leger's call centre, panelists from more hard-to-reach target groups were also added to the panel through targeted recruitment campaigns. The double opt-in selection process, a model to detect fraud and the renewal of 25% of the panel each year ensures complete respondent quality. To ensure a higher response rate and reach people on their mobile devices, Leger has also developed a high-performance Apple and Android application.

In fact, Leger is the only Canadian research firm offering both the number and quality of panelists. Most competing polling firms in Canada and the United States also use the LEO panel.

3 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY

A margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample in a panel survey. For comparison purposes, a probability sample of this size would have a margin of error ±2.18%, 19 times out of 20 for the Canadian sample and of ±3.09%, 19 times out of 20 for the American sample. The results presented in this study comply with the public opinion research standards and disclosure requirements of CRIC (the Canadian Research and Insights Council) and the global ESOMAR network. Leger is a founding member of CRIC and is actively involved in raising quality standards in the survey industry. President Jean-Marc Léger is a member of the CRIC’s Board of Directors and the Canadian representative of ESOMAR.

4 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH METHODOLOGY

Leger is the polling firm that has presented the most accurate data, on average, over the last ten years in Canada. During the last federal election in 2019, Leger was once again the most accurate firm in the country. This accuracy is attributed to the quality of the LEO panel and rigorous application of methodological rules by Leger's 600 employees, including 200 professionals in Leger's eight offices across Canada (Montreal, , City, Winnipeg, , and Vancouver) and in the United States (Philadelphia).

Poll aggregator 338Canada.com gave Leger the highest rating among all polling firms in Canada for the accuracy of its studies. See https://338canada.com/pollster-ratings.htm

2019 CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTION

LEGER SURVEY Published in Le Journal de Montréal 33% 33% 18% 8% 6% 2% October 20, 2019

OFFICIAL RESULTS 2019 Canadian Federal Election 33% 34% 16% 8% 7% 2%

5 NOTES ON READING THIS REPORT METHODOLOGY

The numbers presented have been rounded. However, the numbers before rounding were used to calculate the sums presented and might therefore not correspond to the manual addition of these numbers.

In this report, data in bold red characters indicates a significantly lower proportion than that of other respondents. Conversely, data in bold green characters indicates a significantly higher proportion that that of other respondents.

A more detailed methodology is presented in the appendix.

If you have questions about the data presented in this report, please contact Christian Bourque, Associate and Executive Vice-President at the following e-mail address: [email protected] or Jack Jedwab, President & CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies: [email protected].

For any questions related to our services, or to request an interview, please contact us by clicking here.

6 FEDERAL POLITICS VOTING INTENTIONS - FEDERAL ELECTIONS

CTC37. If federal elections were held today, for which political party would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for...? In the event a respondent had no opinion, the following prompting question was asked: Even if you have not yet made up your mind, for which of the following political parties would you be most likely to vote? Would it be for the ... Base: All respondents (n=2,005), except for the Bloc Québécois, Quebecers only and the Maverick Party, Albertans and Saskatchewanians only

TOTAL TOTAL TOTAL Sub- August Decided ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC Male Female 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural Gap Canada urban 16th voters 2021 Weighted n= 2,005 1,710 114 390 659 113 198 237 857 854 468 557 686 666 678 357 1,644 Unweighted n= 2,005 1,723 169 425 511 176 181 261 890 833 462 605 656 703 672 342 1,678 ... Erin O’Toole’s Conservative 29% 34% 37% 20% 35% 53% 52% 26% 37% 31% 25% 34% 39% 29% 35% 40% +4 Party of Canada 30% ... ’s Liberal 26% 30% 35% 33% 34% 19% 12% 32% 28% 32% 29% 28% 33% 35% 29% 24% -5 Party of Canada 35% ... Jagmeet Singh’s New 20% 24% 24% 13% 25% 22% 28% 35% 21% 26% 35% 25% 15% 28% 22% 19% +4 Democratic Party of Canada 20% ... Yves-François Blanchet’s 6% 7% 29% - Bloc Québécois ------7% ... Maxime Bernier’s People’s 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 4% 1% 4% 2% 2% 4% 2% 2% 3% 3% +1 Party of Canada* 2% ... Annamie Paul’s Green Party 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% 0% 5% 2% 2% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 3% -3 of Canada 5% … another party 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% - I would not vote 3% ------I would cancel my vote 1% ------I don’t know 9% ------Refusal 1% ------

*People’s Party of Canada was added to the surveyed parties starting July 5, 2021. 8 **The Maverick party was included in the voting intention question but are not presented in the table since they are at 0% overall (3% in ). EVOLUTION OF VOTING INTENTIONS IN CANADA

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10% Others 0% 08- 08- 04- 04- 04- 05- 05- 05- 05- 06- 06- 06- 06- 06- 07- 07- 07- 07- 08- 08- 08- 08- 08- 09- 09- 09- 09- 10- 10- 10- 10- 11- 11- 11- 11- 12- 01- 01- 02- 02- 03- 03- 03- 04- 04- 05- 05- 06- 06- 07- 07- 08- 16- 30- 13-2020-2027-2004-2011-2019-2025-2001-2008-2015-2022-2029-2006-2013-2020-2027-2003-2010-2007-2024-2031-2008-2013-2021-2028-2005-2013-2019-2026-2002-2009-2016-2030-2014-2004-2118-2101-2115-2101-2115-2129-2112-2126-2110-2125-2107-2121-2105-2119-2102-21 20212021 LPC 39% 42% 43% 44% 41% 44% 41% 40% 46% 40% 39% 40% 39% 38% 39% 35% 33% 36% 35% 38% 35% 34% 35% 35% 40% 36% 37% 36% 37% 34% 36% 35% 34% 35% 35% 36% 37% 36% 35% 36% 35% 35% 34% 33% 34% 32% 34% 33% 34% 36% 35% 30%

CPC 28% 29% 28% 25% 28% 25% 27% 27% 25% 27% 28% 28% 25% 26% 28% 29% 31% 29% 32% 30% 29% 32% 31% 30% 30% 32% 29% 29% 30% 31% 28% 31% 30% 29% 30% 29% 28% 29% 28% 31% 28% 30% 28% 30% 30% 29% 30% 30% 29% 29% 30% 34%

NDP 18% 14% 14% 15% 17% 15% 15% 18% 15% 16% 19% 17% 20% 19% 17% 20% 20% 15% 18% 18% 21% 19% 18% 19% 17% 20% 21% 18% 18% 21% 21% 18% 20% 23% 20% 21% 22% 20% 23% 19% 22% 18% 20% 19% 19% 22% 20% 19% 22% 20% 20% 24%

BQ 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 7%

GPC 8% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6% 7% 6% 7% 5% 6% 5% 7% 7% 6% 6% 8% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5% 4% 6% 6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 5% 7% 6% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 2%

PPC* 4% 3% 3% 2% 3%

Others 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 2% 4% 2% 3% 4% 4% 3% 5% 4% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1%

*People’s Party of Canada was added to the surveyed parties starting July 5, 2021. The Maverick Party was added on august 30, 2021. 9 **The Maverick party was included in the voting intention question but are not presented in the table since they are at 0% overall (3% in Alberta). CHOICE OF POLITICAL PARTY (1/2)

CTC694. Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? Base: Decided voters (n=1,723)

61%

21% 17%

Final choice I'm likely to change my mind Don’t know

TOTAL Sub- TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural August Gap CANADA urban 16th Weighted n = 1,710 114 390 659 113 198 237 468 557 686 666 678 357 1,644 Unweighted n = 1,723 169 425 511 176 181 261 462 605 656 703 672 342 1,678 Final choice 61% 62% 50% 64% 72% 69% 61% 54% 59% 68% 63% 59% 62% 58% +3 I'm likely to 21% 11% 43% 17% 12% 11% 15% 30% 22% 15% 21% 23% 18% 23% -2 change my mind Don’t know 17% 26% 7% 19% 16% 19% 24% 16% 18% 17% 15% 18% 19% 19% -2

10 CHOICE OF POLITICAL PARTY – DETAILS BY VOTING INTENTIONS (2/2)

CTC694. Is this your final choice or are you likely to change your mind? Base: Decided voters

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others CANADA

Weighted n= 1,710 517 575 408 112 38 44 9* Unweighted n= 1,723 533 569 392 118 48 46 11* Final choice 61% 63% 68% 57% 54% 35% 51% 24% I'm likely to change my mind 21% 20% 15% 22% 43% 47% 24% 23% Don’t know 17% 17% 17% 21% 3% 18% 25% 52%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 11 NEW QUESTION

OPINION ON LEADERS (1/3)

CTC754. In the past week, has your opinion of the following leaders improved, remained stable or worsened? Base: All respondents (n=2,005)

7% Justin Trudeau 52% 41%

23% Erin O’Toole 53% 24%

23% Jagmeet Singh 61% 16%

Improved Remained stable Worsened

12 NEW QUESTION

OPINION ON LEADERS (2/3)

CTC754. In the past week, has your opinion of the following leaders improved, remained stable or worsened? Base: All respondents

TOTAL Sub- ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural CANADA urban Weighted n= 2,005 137 470 770 131 225 272 547 684 775 777 784 425 Unweighted n= 2,005 201 500 601 201 201 301 540 727 738 814 773 404 Justin Trudeau Improved 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 5% 7% 11% 5% 6% 10% 5% 5% Remained stable 52% 56% 51% 56% 44% 40% 53% 52% 55% 48% 53% 53% 48% Worsened 41% 37% 41% 37% 49% 55% 40% 37% 40% 46% 37% 42% 47% Erin O’Toole Improved 23% 15% 24% 23% 28% 28% 17% 18% 20% 28% 20% 23% 26% Remained stable 53% 58% 59% 50% 50% 50% 56% 55% 56% 50% 51% 55% 53% Worsened 24% 27% 18% 27% 23% 22% 28% 28% 24% 22% 28% 22% 21% Jagmeet Singh Improved 23% 18% 14% 28% 20% 25% 31% 30% 21% 20% 27% 23% 16% Remained stable 61% 70% 71% 56% 61% 56% 58% 58% 65% 60% 58% 61% 67% Worsened 16% 13% 15% 16% 19% 20% 11% 12% 14% 19% 15% 16% 17%

13 NEW QUESTION

OPINION ON LEADERS - DETAILS BY VOTING INTENTIONS (3/3)

CTC754. In the past week, has your opinion of the following leaders improved, remained stable or worsened? Base: All respondents

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others CANADA Weighted n= 2,005 517 575 408 112 38 44 9* Unweighted n= 2,005 533 569 392 118 48 46 11* Justin Trudeau Improved 7% 17% 3% 5% 3% 2% 2% 0% Remained stable 52% 72% 30% 58% 47% 63% 28% 51% Worsened 41% 11% 67% 37% 50% 35% 70% 49% Erin O’Toole Improved 23% 11% 52% 7% 30% 10% 17% 9% Remained stable 53% 52% 43% 56% 55% 56% 58% 69% Worsened 24% 37% 6% 37% 15% 34% 25% 21% Jagmeet Singh Improved 23% 25% 15% 53% 7% 20% 5% 16% Remained stable 61% 65% 61% 46% 73% 64% 53% 27% Worsened 16% 10% 25% 2% 21% 16% 42% 57%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 14 SATISFACTION WITH TRUDEAU’S GOVERNMENT (1/3)

CTC695. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau? Base: All respondents (n=2,005)

Very satisfied 6% Total Satisfied: 38% Somewhat satisfied 32%

Somewhat dissatisfied 24% Total Dissatisfied: Very dissatisfied 32% 56%

Don’t know 5%

Prefer not to answer 1%

15 SATISFACTION WITH TRUDEAU’S GOVERNMENT (2/3)

CTC695. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau? Base: All respondents

TOTAL Sub- TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural August Gap CANADA urban 16th

Weighted n= 2,005 137 470 770 131 225 272 547 684 775 777 784 425 2,007

Unweighted n= 2,005 201 500 601 201 201 301 540 727 738 814 773 404 2,007

Total Satisfied 38% 48% 36% 41% 27% 28% 44% 40% 35% 40% 46% 36% 30% 42% -4

Very satisfied 6% 9% 5% 7% 5% 4% 8% 7% 5% 7% 9% 5% 5% 7% -1

Somewhat satisfied 32% 40% 31% 34% 22% 23% 36% 34% 30% 33% 37% 31% 25% 35% -3

Total Dissatisfied 56% 49% 56% 52% 67% 72% 51% 52% 58% 57% 48% 59% 66% 51% +5

Somewhat dissatisfied 24% 23% 31% 21% 26% 17% 26% 26% 25% 22% 22% 26% 24% 24% -

Very dissatisfied 32% 27% 25% 31% 41% 55% 25% 26% 34% 35% 26% 33% 41% 28% +4

Don't know 5% 2% 6% 5% 6% 0% 5% 8% 5% 2% 5% 4% 4% 5% -

Prefer not to answer 1% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% -

16 SATISFACTION WITH TRUDEAU’S GOVERNMENT - DETAILS BY VOTING INTENTIONS (3/3) CTC695. Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied with the Canadian government led by Justin Trudeau? Base: All respondents

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others CANADA

Weighted n= 2,005 517 575 408 112 38 44 9* Unweighted n= 2,005 533 569 392 118 48 46 11* Total Satisfied 38% 82% 17% 36% 26% 31% 12% 21% Very satisfied 6% 18% 2% 2% 1% 6% 2% 21% Somewhat satisfied 32% 63% 15% 33% 25% 24% 10% 0% Total Dissatisfied 56% 17% 82% 61% 72% 65% 88% 66% Somewhat dissatisfied 24% 12% 21% 38% 49% 32% 6% 23% Very dissatisfied 32% 5% 61% 23% 23% 32% 82% 43% Don't know 5% 2% 0% 3% 1% 5% 0% 13% Prefer not to answer 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 17 LEADER WHO WOULD MAKE THE BEST PRIME MINISTER (1/3)

CTC696. In your opinion, which federal would make the best ? Base: All respondents (n=2,005)

Justin Trudeau 23%

Jagmeet Singh 23%

Erin O’Toole 21%

Maxime Bernier 3%

Annamie Paul 1%

Another one 2%

None of the above 11%

I don't know 15%

I prefer not to answer 2% 18 LEADER WHO WOULD MAKE THE BEST PRIME MINISTER (2/3)

CTC696. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? Base: All respondents

TOTAL Sub- TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural Gap CANADA urban August 16th

Weighted n= 2,005 137 470 770 131 225 272 547 684 775 777 784 425 2,007 Unweighted n= 2,005 201 500 601 201 201 301 540 727 738 814 773 404 2,007 Justin Trudeau 23% 30% 24% 25% 17% 13% 22% 21% 19% 28% 28% 22% 17% 27% -4 Jagmeet Singh 23% 21% 13% 26% 24% 24% 32% 35% 23% 14% 25% 23% 20% 18% +5 Erin O’Toole 21% 19% 18% 20% 31% 28% 15% 14% 18% 27% 17% 23% 24% 15% +6 Maxime Bernier 3% 2% 3% 3% 1% 5% 4% 3% 5% 2% 2% 3% 5% 3% - Annamie Paul 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% - Another one 2% 0% 7% 1% 1% 2% 0% 2% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 4% -2 None of the above 11% 7% 14% 10% 10% 13% 11% 9% 11% 12% 9% 12% 14% 14% -3 Don’t know 15% 19% 19% 13% 12% 14% 14% 14% 19% 13% 15% 14% 17% 17% -2 Prefer not to answer 2% 0% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% +1

19 LEADER WHO WOULD MAKE THE BEST PRIME MINISTER - DETAILS BY VOTING INTENTIONS (3/3)

CTC696. In your opinion, which federal party leader would make the best Prime Minister of Canada? Base: All respondents

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others CANADA Weighted n= 2,005 517 575 408 112 38 44 9* Unweighted n= 2,005 533 569 392 118 48 46 11* Justin Trudeau 23% 68% 9% 6% 12% 3% 2% 0% Jagmeet Singh 23% 17% 5% 77% 5% 33% 0% 7% Erin O’Toole 21% 3% 63% 1% 20% 2% 7% 22% Maxime Bernier 3% 1% 4% 0% 1% 1% 64% 21% Annamie Paul 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% Another one 2% 1% 2% 0% 18% 2% 10% 4% None of the above 11% 5% 9% 6% 24% 14% 10% 33% Don’t know 15% 5% 8% 8% 20% 21% 7% 13% Prefer not to answer 2% 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 20 PARTY THAT WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT (1/3)

CTC710. Who do you think will win the next federal election and form the next government? Base: All respondents (n=2,005)

The 39%

The Conservative Party of Canada 28%

The of Canada 7%

Don't know/Prefer not to answer 25%

21 PARTY THAT WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT (2/3)

CTC710. Who do you think will win the next federal election and form the next government? Base: All respondents

TOTAL Sub- TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural August Gap CANADA urban 16th Weighted n= 2,005 137 470 770 131 225 272 547 684 775 777 784 425 2,007 Unweighted n= 2,005 201 500 601 201 201 301 540 727 738 814 773 404 2,007 The Liberal Party of Canada 39% 32% 47% 40% 30% 35% 37% 41% 38% 40% 43% 38% 37% 47% -8 The Conservative Party of Canada 28% 33% 23% 31% 37% 32% 22% 25% 29% 30% 23% 31% 34% 18% +10 The New Democratic Party of 7% 6% 3% 7% 7% 9% 13% 13% 7% 3% 10% 6% 6% 8% -1 Canada Don't know/Prefer not to answer 25% 29% 27% 22% 26% 24% 28% 21% 26% 27% 24% 25% 24% 27% -2

22 PARTY THAT WILL FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT - DETAILS BY VOTING INTENTIONS (3/3)

CTC710. Who do you think will win the next federal election and form the next government? Base: All respondents

TOTAL LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC PPC Others CANADA

Weighted n= 2,005 517 575 408 112 38 44 9* Unweighted n= 2,005 533 569 392 118 48 46 11* The Liberal Party of Canada 39% 72% 22% 40% 53% 45% 15% 0% The Conservative Party of Canada 28% 9% 62% 17% 22% 19% 58% 44% The New Democratic Party of Canada 7% 6% 0% 23% 2% 13% 5% 16% Don't know/Prefer not to answer 25% 13% 16% 20% 23% 23% 22% 40%

*Given the small number of respondents (n<30) data are presented for illustrative purposes only. 23 CHOICE BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVES AND THE LIBERALS (1/3) CTC711. If the race is very tight between the Liberals and Conservatives, making every vote important, would that situation… Base: Decided voters who do not intend to vote for the Conservative Party or the Liberal Party (n=611)

… make you more likely to support the Liberals 24%

… make you more likely to support the 15% Conservatives

… not make you change your mind and you would 61% still vote for [Selected Party]

24 CHOICE BETWEEN THE CONSERVATIVES AND THE LIBERALS (2/3) CTC711. If the race is very tight between the Liberals and Conservatives, making every vote important, would that situation… Base: Decided voters who do not intend to vote for the Conservative Party or the Liberal Party

TOTAL Sub- TOTAL ATL QC ON MB/SK AB BC 18-34 35-54 55+ Urban Rural August Gap CANADA urban 16th

Weighted n= 611 32 176 202 31 71 99