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Home , Adam van Koeverden, Amarjeet Sohi, Andrew Scheer, Guy Caron, Helena Jaczek, Jagmeet Singh

2019 Federal Election: Result and Analysis

O C T O B E R 22, 2 0 1 9 NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS

157 121 24 3 32 (-20) (+26) (-15) (+1) (+22)

Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament

• The of (LPC) won a second mandate, although was diminished to minority status. • The result of the 43rd Canadian election is one of the closest in recent memory, with both the Liberals and Conservatives separated by little more than one percentage point. Conservatives share of vote is slightly higher than the Liberals, making major gains in key areas for the party • Bloc Quebecois (BQ) is a winner in this election, moving up to official party status which will give the party added resources as well as significance in the House of Commons • The NDP managed to win enough seats to potentially play an important role in the House of Commons, but the party took a big hit in — where they were only able to hold one of the Layton era “Orange Wave” seats • , who started the People’s Party of Canada after narrowly losing the Conservative leadership contest in 2017, lost the seat he has held onto since 2006 • The former Treasury Board president Dr. , who ran as an independent following her departure from the liberal caucus, lost her seat in Markham Stouffville to former Liberal MPP and Minister of Health, Dr. . Jody Wilson-Raybould won as an independent in Granville NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS

10 2 32 3

39 24

PARTY STANDINGS AT 157 DISSOLUTION OF THE 2019 42ND PARLIAMENT 177

95

121

Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Green Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Green REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ATLANTIC CANADA

26 4 1 1 (-5) (+4) (+1) (+1)

Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament

• Atlantic Canada is no longer painted red but all five Liberal ministers in the region were re-elected • Former Conservative Minister of Health Chris d’Entremont won the West Nova riding, as well as other former Conservative MPs , John Williamson and • won in with — the first time the party has won a seat outside of REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ATLANTIC CANADA

1 1

4 PARTY STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION OF 2019 THE 42ND PARLIAMENT

26

100%

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Liberal Conservative NDP Green REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS QUEBEC

35 10 1 0 32 (-5) (-1) (-13) (+22)

Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament

• Results are divided in Quebec • BQ returned to relevance by taking most of the NDP seats in the province • The NDP were eliminated in all but one riding in la belle province with key losses by Pierre-Luc Dusseault, and • Maxime Bernier, who started the People’s Party of Canada after narrowly losing the Conservative leadership contest in 2017, lost his seat • The Liberals’ grip on Montreal continues but with the BQ upset, the party took away any opportunity the Liberals had to form a REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS QUEBEC

10

32 14 PARTY STANDINGS AT 35 DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND 40 PARLIAMENT

11

1

10 Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Liberal Conservative NDP BQ REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ONTARIO

79 36 6 0 (+3) (+3) (-2) (+0)

Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament

• With the BQ results in Quebec, Ontario was the next battleground for the Liberals and Conservatives with each party only gaining a few seats

• The province remained loyal to the Liberals with the “Ford factor” providing much needed momentum in the region resulting in half the Liberal caucus coming from Ontario. In particular, the party had strong results in the GTHA region, winning almost every riding in and the 905 suburban region — an area the Conservatives failed to win back after almost all of its seats went red in the 2015 election. Of note, Conservative MP and CPC Deputy Leader lost to former Olympian, in Milton

• Kim Rudd was also defeated

• The former Treasury Board president Dr. Jane Philpott, who was ejected from the Liberal Party after sticking by Jody Wilson-Raybould in the SNC-Lavalin affair, loses her seat in Markham-Stouffville REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ONTARIO

8 6

PARTY 36 33 STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT 76 79

Liberal Conservative NDP Liberal Conservative NDP REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS PRAIRIES

4 21 3 0 (-4) (+6) (-1) (+0)

Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament

• In , seats were split with the Conservatives winning six seats, the Liberals four and the NDP three • lost his riding by nearly 17 points to Conservative • Liberals were completely eliminated in and , a gap acknowledged by Prime Minister Trudeau in his late night remarks • Candice Bergen was re-elected REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS PRAIRIES

4 3

4

8

PARTY STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT

15 21

Liberal Conservative NDP Liberal Conservative NDP REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ALBERTA

0 33 1 0 (-3) (+5) (+0) (+0)

Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament

• Conservatives won every riding in Alberta and Saskatchewan except for Strathcona, which stayed NDP • Cabinet Minister lost, as well as , and special advisor to the Prime Minister on LGBTQ+ issues Randy Boissonnault REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ALBERTA

1 1 4

PARTY STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT

33 29

Liberal Conservative NDP Conservative NDP REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS BRITISH COLUMBIA

11 16 12 2 (-6) (+8) (+0) (+0)

Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament

• NDP held on to its ridings on Vancouver Island • In Metro Vancouver, the Liberals held most of the seats • Conservatives made in-roads in battleground B.C., picking up eight seats in this election, winning a total of 16 seats (compared to nine prior to the vote) in a province that’s held provincially by a minority NDP government that is propped up by the Greens. • Former Liberal justice minister Jody-Wilson Raybould, who was at the centre of the SNC-Lavalin affair, won the Vancouver Granville riding and she will sit as an Independent in the House of Commons. REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS BRITISH COLUMBIA

2 2

11 12 14 PARTY 17 STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT

10 16

Liberal Conservative NDP Green Liberal Conservative NDP Green ANALYSIS

• This strong outcome has created a lifeline for Prime Minister . The Prime Pierre Cyr Minister needs to use this opportunity to show that he wants to make a minority parliament work, Vice President while focusing on key priorities such as carbon pricing and national pharmacare. The days ahead will be more Liberal complicated for the Trudeau government in a minority environment, and the Liberals will need to pivot to develop strong relationships across party lines. Due to the strength of the minority government, we believe the Liberals will seek to govern on an issue by issue, and vote by vote basis, as opposed to formalizing a coalition with another party. One thing is for certain, although Canadians might have been disappointed in Prime Minister Trudeau for some of his gaffes, they continue to believe in his leadership and have sent the Liberals a very clear warning shot.

John Capobianco • This is a strong result for CPC Leader and the Conservative party overall, gaining in seat count, defeating PPC Leader Maxime Bernier in Beauce, and winning the overall popular vote. In forming the Senior Vice President Official Opposition, these positive results should give Scheer the confidence from his enlarged caucus to Conservative keep the Liberal minority government accountable until the next election. Many Conservatives will see Scheer’s multi-election path to victory as similar to ’s own path in 2004 and 2006.

• This election gave Canadians a chance to get to know - a principled, hard-working, exciting Jennifer Anthony new leader. After writing off the New Democrats at the beginning of the campaign, most commentators agree Senior Vice President that it was the best run campaign, and we’re seeing those results. Canadians sent a clear message that they NDP want results for average people, not just those that need help the least. With this minority government, New Democrats believe they can get a lot done for people. NEXT STEPS

Governor General meets Vote on Throne Speech. with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Swearing-in ceremony of the If the throne speech does Speech from the Throne confirm that he is able to form a Transition meetings Prime Minister and Cabinet not pass, the government government loses the confidence of the House of Commons.

• Although the Governor General holds a tremendous amount of decision-making power following a minority government election result, the reality is Canadians have elected a strong minority government and expect the parties to engage in the business of running the country. Also, there is little to no appetite among the parties to plunge the country into an election any time soon.

• Prime Minister Trudeau’s remarks may have given an indication of early focuses that his minority government will take on items related to climate change, and increased restrictions on firearms. Also, NDP has expressed openness towards a minority government or coalition with the Liberals. We expect that pharmacare will be a longer term play likely leading to a new health care accord between the federal, provincial and territorial governments.

• Trudeau has refrained from making any clear comments regarding how the Liberals would act in a minority situation but the Throne Speech will indicate more of where the Liberals think they can seek enough consensus to make the minority government work.

• A minority government also means a more complex parliament. In the coming days, FHR foresees fierce negotiations in relation to the election of a speaker, and the chairing and membership of standing committees. The Liberals will have to place more emphasis on parliamentary business in this new mandate as they do not have majority control of committees. This is a significant shift, and will demand stronger overall coordination and strategy, which runs counter to the Prime Minister’s more “laissez faire” approach in the first term. We foresee that Opposition members could try and call an official inquiry into the SNC Lavalin scandal through a number of standing committees. These risks need to be assessed and closely managed or they could cause major distractions in the early days of this minority government.

• As for party leadership, each party’s constitution outlines rules around leadership reviews and resignations. The Conservatives, NDP and Green have automatic leadership reviews following general elections. We believe both CPC Leader Andrew Scheer and NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh will win these reviews. The Liberal constitution allows for a “leadership endorsement ballot” only if Trudeau ceases to be Prime Minister (the constitution does not distinguish between majority and minority governments), which was not the case in this election. KEY LIBERAL PLATFORM COMMITMENTS

• Committed to $9.3 billion in new spending in 2020-2021, with the deficit rising to $27.4 billion that same fiscal year. Given current trends, the finance department doesn’t predict a return to balanced budgets until at least 2040.

• Plan to phase out coal power by 2030 to help Canada exceed the Paris agreement’s carbon emission reduction targets. They pledged net-zero emissions by 2050.

• Promised an additional $3 billion in public transit funding per year. Transit funding would be tied to investment in zero-emission transit vehicles from 2023. The party has proposed starting a National Infrastructure Fund to support major projects, including building a link between Newfoundland and Labrador. • Pledged to protect a quarter of Canada's natural land and ocean habitats by 2025. Liberals also want to create the Canada Water Agency, a national group focused on water infrastructure and security. • Promised to ban some single-use plastics as early as 2021. • Plan to take "critical next steps" toward a national pharmacare program but the platform had few details. • The government signed a health-care funding agreement with the provinces and territories, promising a three per cent annual health transfer increase with more funding for mental health, addictions and home care programs. They plan to double the child disability benefit and expand access to medical assistance in dying. • Liberals have stressed their commitment to reconciliation while brushing off criticisms of their policies — including support for the . They promise to fully implement the Indigenous Languages Act and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples and give at least five per cent of federal contracts to Indigenous-owned businesses. They are seeking judicial review of First Nation child welfare compensation. • Support Line 3, Keystone XL, and the massive LNG project running to B.C.’s coast. • Promising to boost Old Age Security at age 75 by 10 per cent and increase the Canada Pension Plan by 25 per cent for widows and widowers. The party hasn’t said whether this would translate to higher premiums to cover the cost. KEY CONSERVATIVE PLATFORM COMMITMENTS

• Promised his party would erase the deficit while cutting taxes. His plan to do that includes slashing foreign aid by 25 per cent, cancelling corporate handouts and cutting costs on consultants and federally owned real estate. He promised to balance the books over five years. • Called the Liberals’ ineffective and vowed to repeal it. The Conservatives committed to meeting Paris agreement targets by requiring that heavy emitters invest in clean technology or research. • Want to ban the practice of dumping raw sewage into waterways and the party would only allow plastic waste to be sent abroad for recycling. • Strongly opposed a handgun ban and promise to repeal C-71, the Liberals’ gun bill. • Pledged to increase health transfer payments by at least three per cent annually and uphold other parts of the health accord. They’ve dismissed pharmacare, instead focusing on people not covered provincially or at work. • Scheer committed to work with Indigenous communities on developing energy resources. To do that, he would have appointed a minister for “consulting Indigenous rights holders.” • Promised to end foreign oil imports and get pipelines built, including the Trans Mountain. • Scheer said he would use constitutional powers to declare construction of pipelines to be in the national interest, a move he argues would get them built faster. He also would overturn recent legislation restricting the movement of oil tankers in northern B.C. • Scheer promised not to renege on federal funds already committed to transit projects but would scrap the Canada Infrastructure Bank, which has funded transit. KEY NDP PLATFORM COMMITMENTS

• In his speech in , Jagmeet Singh pointed towards pharmacare, taxing the rich and tackling student debt as areas he would push on.

• NDP are in favour of continuing with a carbon tax and the rebate program. However, Singh wants to crack down more on heavy emitters. He said he wants those who produce the most emissions to “have the most burden” and vows to change the requirements slightly for industrial emitters.

• Want to cut Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions to 450 megatonnes by 2030. To get there, it would spend $15 billion retrofitting buildings and create a “climate bank” to invest in renewable energy and clean technology. It wants to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies, boost the support fund for communities hit by natural disasters and see Canada powered by net carbon-free electricity by 2030.

• NDP would waive the federal tax on zero-emission vehicles and work toward the goal it shares with the Liberals of getting all new vehicles zero-emission by 2040.

• Plan to balance the budget “when prudent” but has no target date. It’s proposing running a $32.7 billion deficit in 2020.

• Pledged to protect 30 per cent of the country’s natural land, freshwater and oceans by 2030. It also wants to boost reforestation, but doesn’t offer a tree planting number. The party wants to create a national freshwater strategy. It promises to introduce a ban on some single-use plastics by 2022 and make plastic-producing companies responsible for their product’s lifecycle.

• Want to expand the current model to include mental health, dental, eye and hearing coverage. They proposed a “pharmacare for all” plan, covering -approved drugs, promising $10 billion to start implementing it next year. The party wants to loosen restrictions on medical assistance in dying and create a national autism strategy. It also pledges legislation to regulate natural health products.

• The party wants to develop an action plan for reconciliation, based on the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s report and the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. They would also create a national council for reconciliation. New Democrats promised to implement all recommendations from the MMIWG inquiry and lift all drinking water advisories by 2021.

• Singh has opposed the Trans Mountain project but his reversal over the liquefied natural gas project in B.C. has drawn ridicule. He promised to give provinces veto power over national infrastructure projects that run through them, including pipelines.

• Pledge to make automatic enrollment in the Old Age Security and the Guaranteed Income Supplement retroactive. SENIOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS TEAM

Pierre Cyr John Capobianco Jennifer Anthony Vice President Senior Vice President Senior Vice President In addition to chairing and managing over a As National Public Affairs Lead, John provides Jennifer is an issues management and crisis dozen local campaigns, Pierre has worked on a government relations and strategic communication strategist with a decade of number of central campaigns, election readiness communications counsel to clients across an experience providing advice to Premiers and committees, and leadership campaigns. He array of sectors. With over 25 years of Cabinet Ministers. She served as deputy chief of served three terms as Vice-President of experience of grassroots political experience staff and director of issues management to Organization for the . Pierre and knowledge at all three levels of government, Alberta and director of has a combined 15 years experience on John has built an extensive political network. He issues management for the Premier of Parliament Hill and at Queens Park, during is also recognized as a leader in the Progressive Manitoba. Jen has served as a strategist, which he served as senior advisor to two Conservative moment, twice winning the organizer and campaign manager for New Premiers, a federal liberal leader, and served in Conservative Party of Canada nomination for Democratic Party campaigns in six provinces. various senior advisory roles, including chief of the Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding and running as a staff to eight federal and provincial ministers. federal Conservative candidate in the 2004 and 2006 elections under the leadership of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper. John is also a regular political commentator in Canada’s national media. Contact Us

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