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2019 Federal Election: Result and Analysis

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2019 Federal Election: Result and Analysis O C T O B E R 22, 2 0 1 9 NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS 157 121 24 3 32 (-20) (+26) (-15) (+1) (+22) Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament • The Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) won a second mandate, although was diminished to minority status. • The result of the 43rd Canadian election is one of the closest in recent memory, with both the Liberals and Conservatives separated by little more than one percentage point. Conservatives share of vote is slightly higher than the Liberals, making major gains in key areas for the party • Bloc Quebecois (BQ) is a winner in this election, moving up to official party status which will give the party added resources as well as significance in the House of Commons • The NDP managed to win enough seats to potentially play an important role in the House of Commons, but the party took a big hit in Quebec — where they were only able to hold one of the Layton era “Orange Wave” seats • Maxime Bernier, who started the People’s Party of Canada after narrowly losing the Conservative leadership contest in 2017, lost the seat he has held onto since 2006 • The former Treasury Board president Dr. Jane Philpott, who ran as an independent following her departure from the liberal caucus, lost her seat in Markham Stouffville to former Liberal MPP and Ontario Minister of Health, Dr. Helena Jaczek. Jody Wilson-Raybould won as an independent in Vancouver Granville NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS 10 2 32 3 39 24 PARTY STANDINGS AT 157 DISSOLUTION OF THE 2019 42ND PARLIAMENT 177 95 121 Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Green Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Green REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ATLANTIC CANADA 26 4 1 1 (-5) (+4) (+1) (+1) Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament • Atlantic Canada is no longer painted red but all five Liberal ministers in the region were re-elected • Former Conservative Nova Scotia Minister of Health Chris d’Entremont won the West Nova riding, as well as other former Conservative MPs Rob Moore, John Williamson and Richard Bragdon • Green Party won in Fredericton with Jenica Atwin — the first time the party has won a seat outside of British Columbia REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ATLANTIC CANADA 1 1 4 PARTY STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION OF 2019 THE 42ND PARLIAMENT 26 100% Liberal Conservative NDP Green Liberal Conservative NDP Green REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS QUEBEC 35 10 1 0 32 (-5) (-1) (-13) (+22) Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament • Results are divided in Quebec • BQ returned to relevance by taking most of the NDP seats in the province • The NDP were eliminated in all but one riding in la belle province with key losses by Pierre-Luc Dusseault, Ruth Ellen Brosseau and Guy Caron • Maxime Bernier, who started the People’s Party of Canada after narrowly losing the Conservative leadership contest in 2017, lost his seat • The Liberals’ grip on Montreal continues but with the BQ upset, the party took away any opportunity the Liberals had to form a majority government REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS QUEBEC 10 32 14 PARTY STANDINGS AT 35 DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND 40 PARLIAMENT 11 1 10 Liberal Conservative NDP BQ Liberal Conservative NDP BQ REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ONTARIO 79 36 6 0 (+3) (+3) (-2) (+0) Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament • With the BQ results in Quebec, Ontario was the next battleground for the Liberals and Conservatives with each party only gaining a few seats • The province remained loyal to the Liberals with the “Ford factor” providing much needed momentum in the region resulting in half the Liberal caucus coming from Ontario. In particular, the party had strong results in the GTHA region, winning almost every riding in Toronto and the 905 suburban region — an area the Conservatives failed to win back after almost all of its seats went red in the 2015 election. Of note, Conservative MP and CPC Deputy Leader Lisa Raitt lost to former Olympian, Adam Van Koeverden in Milton • Kim Rudd was also defeated • The former Treasury Board president Dr. Jane Philpott, who was ejected from the Liberal Party after sticking by Jody Wilson-Raybould in the SNC-Lavalin affair, loses her seat in Markham-Stouffville REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ONTARIO 8 6 PARTY 36 33 STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT 76 79 Liberal Conservative NDP Liberal Conservative NDP REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS PRAIRIES 4 21 3 0 (-4) (+6) (-1) (+0) Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament • In Manitoba, seats were split with the Conservatives winning six seats, the Liberals four and the NDP three • Ralph Goodale lost his riding by nearly 17 points to Conservative Michael Kram • Liberals were completely eliminated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, a gap acknowledged by Prime Minister Trudeau in his late night remarks • Candice Bergen was re-elected REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS PRAIRIES 4 3 4 8 PARTY STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT 15 21 Liberal Conservative NDP Liberal Conservative NDP REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ALBERTA 0 33 1 0 (-3) (+5) (+0) (+0) Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament • Conservatives won every riding in Alberta and Saskatchewan except for Edmonton Strathcona, which stayed NDP • Cabinet Minister Amarjeet Sohi lost, as well as Kent Hehr, and special advisor to the Prime Minister on LGBTQ+ issues Randy Boissonnault REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS ALBERTA 1 1 4 PARTY STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT 33 29 Liberal Conservative NDP Conservative NDP REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS BRITISH COLUMBIA 11 16 12 2 (-6) (+8) (+0) (+0) Comparison between results reflected based on party standings at dissolution of the 42nd parliament • NDP held on to its ridings on Vancouver Island • In Metro Vancouver, the Liberals held most of the seats • Conservatives made in-roads in battleground B.C., picking up eight seats in this election, winning a total of 16 seats (compared to nine prior to the vote) in a province that’s held provincially by a minority NDP government that is propped up by the Greens. • Former Liberal justice minister Jody-Wilson Raybould, who was at the centre of the SNC-Lavalin affair, won the Vancouver Granville riding and she will sit as an Independent in the House of Commons. REGIONAL ELECTION RESULTS BRITISH COLUMBIA 2 2 11 12 14 PARTY 17 STANDINGS AT DISSOLUTION 2019 OF THE 42ND PARLIAMENT 10 16 Liberal Conservative NDP Green Liberal Conservative NDP Green ANALYSIS • This strong minority government outcome has created a lifeline for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The Prime Pierre Cyr Minister needs to use this opportunity to show Canadians that he wants to make a minority parliament work, Vice President while focusing on key priorities such as carbon pricing and national pharmacare. The days ahead will be more Liberal complicated for the Trudeau government in a minority environment, and the Liberals will need to pivot to develop strong relationships across party lines. Due to the strength of the minority government, we believe the Liberals will seek to govern on an issue by issue, and vote by vote basis, as opposed to formalizing a coalition with another party. One thing is for certain, although Canadians might have been disappointed in Prime Minister Trudeau for some of his gaffes, they continue to believe in his leadership and have sent the Liberals a very clear warning shot. John Capobianco • This is a strong result for CPC Leader Andrew Scheer and the Conservative party overall, gaining in seat count, defeating PPC Leader Maxime Bernier in Beauce, and winning the overall popular vote. In forming the Senior Vice President Official Opposition, these positive results should give Scheer the confidence from his enlarged caucus to Conservative keep the Liberal minority government accountable until the next election. Many Conservatives will see Scheer’s multi-election path to victory as similar to Stephen Harper’s own path in 2004 and 2006. • This election gave Canadians a chance to get to know Jagmeet Singh - a principled, hard-working, exciting Jennifer Anthony new leader. After writing off the New Democrats at the beginning of the campaign, most commentators agree Senior Vice President that it was the best run campaign, and we’re seeing those results. Canadians sent a clear message that they NDP want results for average people, not just those that need help the least. With this minority government, New Democrats believe they can get a lot done for people. NEXT STEPS Governor General Julie Payette meets Vote on Throne Speech. with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to Swearing-in ceremony of the If the throne speech does Speech from the Throne confirm that he is able to form a Transition meetings Prime Minister and Cabinet not pass, the government government loses the confidence of the House of Commons. • Although the Governor General holds a tremendous amount of decision-making power following a minority government election result, the reality is Canadians have elected a strong minority government and expect the parties to engage in the business of running the country. Also, there is little to no appetite among the parties to plunge the country into an election any time soon. • Prime Minister Trudeau’s remarks may have given an indication of early focuses that his minority government will take on items related to climate change, and increased restrictions on firearms. Also, NDP has expressed openness towards a minority government or coalition with the Liberals.
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