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The New Canadian Federal Dynamic What Does It Mean for Canada-US Relations? Canada’S Political Spectrum

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The New Canadian Federal Dynamic What Does It Mean for Canada-US Relations? Canada’S Political Spectrum The New Canadian Federal Dynamic What does it mean for Canada-US Relations? Canada’s Political Spectrum Leader: Justin Trudeau Interim Leader: Rona Leader: Thomas Mulcair Ambrose Party Profile: Social Party Profile: Populist, liberal policies, historically Party Profile: Social democratic fiscally responsible liberal/conservative, socialist/union roots fiscally pragmatic Supporter Base: Urban Supporter Base: Canada, Atlantic Supporter Base: Quebec, Urban Canada Provinces Suburbs, rural areas, Western provinces Leader: Elizabeth May Leader: Vacant Party Profile: Non-violence, social Party Profile: Protect/Defend justice and sustainability Quebec interests, independence Supporter Base: British Supporter Base: Urbana & rural Columbia, Atlantic Provinces Quebec Left Leaning Right Leaning 2 In Case You Missed It... Seats: 184 Seats: 99 Seats: 44 Popular Vote: 39.5% Popular Vote: 31.9% Popular Vote: 19.7% • Swept Atlantic Canada • Continue to dominate in the • Held rural Québec • Strong showing in Urban Prairies, but support in urban • Performed strongly across Canada – Ontario, Québec, and centres is cracking Vancouver Island and coastal B.C. B.C. 3 Strong National Mandate Vote Driven By • Longest campaign period in Canadian history – 78 Days • Increase in 7% in voter turnout • “Change” sentiment, positive messaging…. sound familiar? 4 The Liberal Government The Right Honourable Justin Trudeau Prime Minister “…a Cabinet that looks like Canada”. • 30 Members, 15 women • 2 aboriginal • 5 visible minorities • 12 incumbents • 7 previous Ministerial experience • 11 from Ontario • 7 from Quebec 5 A Cabinet with International Focus Sub-Committee on Canada-US Relations The Right Honourable Justin Trudeau Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland Ralph Goodale Lawrence MacAulay Cabinet Committees Minister of International Minister of Public Minister of Agriculture Trade Safety and Agri-Food • Canada in the World and Public Security • Sub-Committee – Canada-US Relations • Environment, Climate Change and Energy Catherine McKenna Stephane Dion Harjit Sajjan Minister of the Environment Minister of Foreign Minister of National and Climate Change Affairs Defence 6 Cross-Border Diplomacy • Current Ambassador Gary Doer to remain for transition of new Trudeau appointee • Expected Nov/Dec • Embassy staff will largely President remain Barack Obama Reshaping the dialogue on… Relationship with Justin Trudeau • Keystone XL Pipeline • Untested but friendly • Oil sands development • Limited overlap of their • Climate change • Bi-national security issues administrations • Border facilitation • Majority of collaboration at • Trans-Pacific Partnership implementation officials’ working level • Softwood lumber 7 First 100 Days First 100 Days Oct 19 Nov 15 Nov 27 Dec 3 Jan 8 Commitments: Election Day G20 Summit Commonwealth Parliament Government in Turkey Heads of Gov. resumes funding bill may • Tax changes meeting be required • Syrian refugee resettlement • Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Aboriginal Nov 4 Nov 18 Nov 30 Dec 4 Jan 30 Women Cabinet APEC Economic COP21 in Speech from Council of the • Amendments to security Bill appointed Leader’s Summit Paris the Throne Federation C-51 Before resuming the House, Trudeau must... • Staff PMO and Ministers Offices • Send Mandate Letters to incoming Ministers • Draft a Speech from the Throne 8 Nicole Foster Randy Pettipas Vice President and General Manager, President and CEO Ontario 403-264-3830 416-597-3485 [email protected] [email protected] globalpublicaffairs.ca @GPAinsights linkedin.com/company/global-public-affairs Victoria, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa 9 Natural Resources & Environment Oil & Gas Environment • Link market access to • National carbon price environmental • Will draft new GHG regulations targets in consultation • Phase out “fossil fuel with provinces subsidies” • Public review of • Balance oil sands environmental Hon. James Carr development with assessment process increased environmental • Modernize and rebuild Minister of Natural oversight trust in National Resources • Limited commentary on Energy Board LNG and fracking 10 Natural Resources & Environment Pipelines Legislation & Regulation First Nations • $2.6B for FN Education • Supports Keystone XL • Introduce new Ambient Air Quality Standards • Federal Reconciliation • Opposes Northern Framework to recognize Gateway • Conduct a “review” of changes to the Fisheries Title Rights • No definitive Act and Navigable • Return to the principles statement yet on Waters Act to re-establish of the Kelowna Accord TransMountain “lost protections” • National inquiry into • Views Energy East as • Complete robust species Murdered and Missing not having the at risk action plans and Aboriginal Women required social licence strengthen protections for due to ineffective endangered species review process 11 Transportation Liberal Commitments • $20 billion in new funding over 10 years for public transit • Would be distributed to the provinces and territories in a manner similar to the federal gas tax transfer • On top of all existing public transit Hon. Marc Garneau commitments already made by the federal government Minister of Transport 12 Infrastructure Liberal Commitments • $125 billion over the next 10 years in new infrastructure spending • Focus on 3 areas: public transit, social infrastructure, and "green" projects Hon. Amarjeet Sohi • Creation of a new Canada Infrastructure Bank, as well as Green Bonds to Minister of Infrastructure support renewable energy projects and Communities • Greater consultation with municipalities 13 International Trade Liberal Commitments • Reschedule and host a new trilateral leaders’ summit with the U.S. & Mexico • New cabinet committee to oversee Canada-U.S. relationship • Supportive of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, pending review of the technical details • Reduce the barriers that limit trade by re-focusing Hon. Chrystia Freeland Building Canada Fund to promote a steadier flow of goods and business travellers • Explore deeper trade relationships with emerging and Minister of International Trade established markets (including China and India) • Develop a new export promotion strategy that will help businesses take advantage of new trade agreements 14 Foreign Investment Liberal Commitments • Deals would be approved on “merit, not political calculations” • Interested in collaborative relationships with the provinces and other stakeholders – could complicate approval process • May involve additional scrutiny on the undertakings if deals are approved on their economic merits Hon. Navdeep Bains • No direct reference to state-owned enterprise investment • Supportive of more open government with more decision Minister of Innovation, making processes being transparent – may mean no more Science and Economic “secret” trade deals Development 15 Health and Life Sciences Liberal Commitments • Liberals will negotiate a new Health Accord with the provinces and territories • Committed to spending $3 billion over four years for home care, including more access to in-home caregivers, financial supports for family care, and palliative care Hon. Jane Philpott • Committed to new spending of $30 million over two years to the Public Health Agency of Canada to support a national strategy to increase Minister of Health vaccination rates and raise awareness on concussion treatment 16 Agri-food Liberal Commitments • Addressing Supply Management concerns from TPP and CETA • Will prioritize nutrition labelling reform and new regulatory controls (trans fat and sodium) • Managing NGO pressure on select Hon. Lawrence MacAulay policy issues, example: “Sugar Tax” Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food • Food safety priority: they will likely seek to enhance CFIA’s operations re inspectors and quality controls 17 Consumer Goods Consumer Goods Liberal Commitments Sector in Canada • Issues impacting consumers will remain Canadian consumer product a hot button issue industries account for close to • Liberals seeking to improve energy one-third of Canada's efficiency standards for consumer and manufacturing GDP and 40% of commercial products. employment • Based on past policies, there is The food and beverage possibility for new product labelling processing industries are the provisions for consumer goods, largest of all manufacturing especially as it relates to chemicals. industries in Canada. 18.
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