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Canada This Month Public Opinion Research Release Date: July 22, 2020 Federal Politics Field Dates: July 14 to July 20, 2020

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Canada This Month Public Opinion Research Release Date: July 22, 2020 Federal Politics Field Dates: July 14 to July 20, 2020 Canada This Month Public Opinion Research Release Date: July 22, 2020 Federal Politics Field Dates: July 14 to July 20, 2020 STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Federal Politics in the time of COVID-19 The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. Federally, approval of the government’s handling of the pandemic has been rising, which has translated to the highest government satisfaction that we’ve seen in years. Though approval of the government’s handling of COVID-19 has remained stable, general satisfaction with the federal government has been declining since May. Even so, Trudeau maintains his lead as the best option for Prime Minister of Canada and the Liberals maintain their lead in vote. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing results from our July 2020 Canada This Month survey. This online survey was in field from July 14th to July 20th with a weighted sample size of 2,000 and oversamples in Alberta and BC. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how Canadians are rating the Federal government’s handling of COVID-19 and the impacts that is having for government satisfaction and vote choice. 3 Government Approval The federal government continues to receive high marks, both generally and for their handling of COVID-19 specifically. Federal Satisfaction: A majority (54%) report they are satisfied with 4 the performance of the federal government Generally speaking, how satisfied are you with the performance of the FEDERAL government in Canada? Would you say you are...? [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] Satisfied: 54% 39% Dissatisfied: 41% 21% 20% 15% 5% Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know Current data: July 2020 satisfaction with the federal with the federal satisfaction Tracking: Satisfaction Federal Current Current 2020 July data: 8% 37% 28% 28% Mar-12 n=2,000] respondents; all of [asked speaking, how Generally Apr-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Apr-14 2015 Election Jun-14 Very satisfied Very Sep-14 Nov-15 satisfied are you with the performance of the FEDERAL government in Canada? Would you say you are...? you say you in Canada? Would government the FEDERALof performance with the you are satisfied Dec-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Somewhat satisfied Somewhat Dec-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 +13% in gov’tJuly to down13points is Dec-17 high in May, of +26% record a From Jan-18 Somewhat dissatisfied Somewhat Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Very dissatisfied Very Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) Don't know Don't May-19 2019 Election Jun-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 net net Jun-20 Jul-20 15% 39% 20% 21% 5% 5 COVID-19 Handling: More than 6-in-10 (63%) approve of the federal 6 government’s handling of the outbreak Now thinking about the federal government, do you approve or disapprove of the way the federal government has handled the outbreak of COVID- 19? [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] Approve: 63% 37% 25% Disapprove: 21% 13% 10% 11% 4% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know disapprove Current data: July 2020 COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Most approve of federal government’s 7 handling of the situation; net satisfaction increased slightly since June Now thinking about the federal government, do you approve or disapprove of the way the federal government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] 3% 4% 17% 11% 10% 16% 13% 14% 37% 33% 25% 17% Jul-20 Jun-20 Apr-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 (2) Apr-20 (2) Apr-20 (3) Apr-20 Mar-20 (2) Mar-20 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: July 2020 Read, Seen, Heard A majority have heard something about the government, and among those, impression is mostly negative. This is largely driven by the negative impressions left on those who recall the WE charity scandal. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Current data: Current Note: Read, Seen, Heard Tracking: Heard Seen, Read, about the federal government, up 5 points month up 5 points government, about the federal 45% 55% Don’tshown. notknow Mar-12 n=2,000] respondents; all of [asked days? few last in the government Federal the and Minister about Canada's Prime anything heard orseen read, you Have July 2020. Apr-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Apr-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Nov-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Over 6 Over Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 No Mar-18 Apr-18 - May-18 in Yes Jun-18 - Jul-18 something (62%) 10 recall Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 - Apr-19 to Apr-19 (2) - May-19 month Jun-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 38% 62% 9 trending negatively over the past few months few the past over negatively trending Tracking: Impact Heard, Seen, Read, Federal Note: data: Current Note: 6% 11% 33% 14% 35% in May ‘18, this question is asked of all respondents ‘18, all in Mayasked ofexcept questionthis is Ontario. inthose shown. notDon’t know Mar-12 n=1235]RSH; have who those of [asked government? Federal the and Minister Canada's Prime or less favourable somewhat favourable, more somewhat favourable, a more lot feeling you leave hear see or read, you what Did July 2020. Apr-12 Nov-12 A lot more favourable more A lot Jan-13 Apr-13 Apr-14 2015 Election 2015 Jun-14 Sep-14 Nov-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Jun-16 Somewhat more favourable more Somewhat Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Made no no difference Made Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Somewhat less favourable Somewhat Oct-18 Nov-18 hasbeen Impact of RSH Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 Apr-19 (2) May-19 Election 2019 A lot less favourable less A lot Jun-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 a Feb-20 towards less favourable lot Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 7% 10% 29% 25% 30% 10 Federal Read, Seen, Heard: Over 6-in-10 (62%) have RSH about the 11 federal government; mostly leading to a less favourable impression Have you read, seen or heard anything about Canada's Prime Minister Did what you read, see or hear leave you feeling a lot more favourable, and the Federal government in the last few days? somewhat more favourable, somewhat less favourable or a lot less [Asked of those who have RSH; n=2000] favourable towards Canada's Prime Minister and the Federal government? 62% [Asked of those who have RSH; n=1235] A lot less favourable 30% Less Favourable: 55% 38% Somewhat less favourable 25% Made no difference 29% Somewhat more favourable 10% More Favourable: 17% A lot more favourable 7% No Yes Current data: July 2020 Over 7-in-10 (72%) recall the WE charity controversy and among those that mention it, impact is strongly negative (-60% net favourability) And what have you read, seen or heard about Canada’s Prime Minister and the Federal government in the last few days? Please be specific. [Asked of those who have RSH; n=1,235] Impact by RSH More fav. No Difference Less fav. NET The WE charity controversy 72% 5% 29% 66% -60% COVID-19 - general (briefings/accouncements, etc.) 15% 47% 32% 21% +27% Trudeau's apology for the WE scandal 7% 12% 28% 60% -47% Continued border closure/extension 5% 43% 47% 10% +33% Extension of COVID-19 financial support: CERB/CEWS 3% 38% 40% 22% +16% Student volunteer/employment program connected to WE scandal 3% 13% 32% 56% -43% General negative comment re: Trudeau/Federal government 3% 8% 31% 62% -54% Trudeau should have recused himself from cabinet (WE) 3% 4% 17% 79% -74% Canada's deficit and debt 2% General positive comment re: Trudeau/Federal government 2% Aid given to provinces from Federal gov't 2% Trudeau refused trade meeting/relationship with Trump 1% ‘Other’ includes: • A news report/article general Other 3% • NBC broadcasting NHL game Don't know 1% Refused 1% Note: Impact shown only for responses with a weighted sample size of n>30 13 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to analyze vote leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: Majority (54%) feel we should base spending 14 decisions on public need, not the government’s ability to afford it Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their To create equal opportunity so that everyone can decisions mainly on…? 57% [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] compete on their own to be the best they can be To redistribute wealth so that the poor and Their ability to afford the programs and 33% disadvantaged have more than they would if left 32% services on their own The public's need for the programs and 54% services Don't know 11% Don't know 14% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=2,000] The profit system brings out the worst in Too often the government listens to experts 39% 40% human nature instead of common sense The profit system teaches people the Provincial issues are complicated so 44% value of hard work and success government should listen to experts when it 45% comes to policy Don't know 17% Don't know 15% Current data: July 2020 Value Clusters: Conservative clusters are smallest, 1-in-4 (25%) 15 categorized as Business Liberals Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense.
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