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Home , Bev Oda, Carol Skelton, Chuck Strahl, Denis Lebel, Diane Ablonczy, Gerry Ritz

’S HARPER’S SHUFFLE NORTH MINISTRY FALLOUT The Hill Times’ extensive policy Get all you need to know about PM Post-shuffle, staffers are upset briefing on Canada’s North. p. 15-29 Harper’s shuffle. p. 1, 3, 4, 6, 10 with the PMO’s HR management. p. 34

EIGHTEENTH YEAR, NO. 901 CANADA’S POLITICS AND GOVERNMENT NEWSWEEKLY MONDAY, AUGUST 20, 2007 $4.00 Harper’s MacKay and Cabinet shuffle Bernier the plays well in new stars of , says Cabinet, but new poll did MacKay get Of all the moves, Chuck promotion? Strahl’s jump into indian and northern affairs is seen least ‘If MacKay doesn’t carry Afghani- favourably by the public stan, defence and so on, and shore up some support in Atlan- By BEA VONGDOUANGCHANH tic Canada, Harper fails. And I

The Conservatives made suspect Harper...has figured that inroads in Quebec with its Cabinet out,’ says Prof. Donald Savoie shuffle last Tuesday, according to a new poll by Innovative Research Group for The Hill Times, which By CHRISTOPHER GULY shows that, as a result of the shuf- Photograph by Jake Wright, The Hill Times fle, Quebecers are twice as likely Cabinet shuffle time should be happy time, people: From left to right: Indian and Northern Affairs Minister Chuck Peter MacKay and Maxime Ber- to be more favourable to the gov- Strahl, Defence Minister Peter MacKay, National Revenue Minister Gordon O’Connor, International Cooperation nier—the young, handsome, telege- ernment than the rest of Canada. Minister , Industry Minister , and Foreign Affairs Minister . All were part of nic, effective communicators and “I think they did the shuffle to Prime Minister ’s 10-member Cabinet shuffle last week at . Extensive coverage inside. in Stephen Harper’s Cabi- wall off the negative momentum. net—drew the most attention as the I think they felt things weren’t apparent winners of the 10-person going the way they wanted on shuffle last week, but one political Afghanistan and they would’ve expert wonders whether Mr. MacK- been grateful just to get away pitch mayor as ay’s new role as defence minister with it and have nobody notice should be considered a promotion. and then move on to reposition- “If MacKay were to pull this off, ing, but in actual fact they scored candidate in Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean then, wow, I think Harper would say, some points in Quebec,” Greg ‘Oh, that’s not what I thought would happen,’” said Prof. David Docherty, Lyle, managing director of Inno- The Tory candidate, Denis Lebel, is resigning as vative Research Group, told The Low voter-turnout in Sept. 17 Québec a political science professor at Wil- the popular mayor of Roberval to run in what some frid Laurier University in Waterloo, Hill Times. “What we see is that in byelections will help the federalist vote, experts are calling a litmus test for the federal Quebec, the shuffle’s being seen Ont., where he is also dean of the Conservatives in Quebec. faculty of arts. He alluded to the ten- more positively than in the rest says Léger Marketing’s Jean-Marc Léger “[Mr. Lebel] is the best known candidate, and of Canada.… It isn’t a political sion that reportedly exists between the Conservatives are in government, and also [vot- Mr. MacKay (, N.S.) earthquake, but it is a tremor, and By NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and JAMES MUNSON ers] could just try him out. But we can’t discount it does suggest for the first time in and the Prime Minister. the fact that this riding has been Bloc for the last “Prime Minister Harper a while some momentum for the The Conservatives, with a former mayor as their 14 years, and 14 years is a long time. We shouldn’t acknowledged that defence is a Conservatives in Quebec.” candidate, are challenging the Bloc Québécois’ hold give him the win right now,” Mr. Migneault told problem. But if it is a problem, The poll also found that although on the riding of Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean in the Sept. The Hill Times. he’s not doing Mr. MacKay any Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s 17 byelection, says Daniel Migneault, editor-in-chief personal favours by saying, ‘Solve ( Southwest, Alta.) Cabi- of the Roberval-area newspaper, L’Etoile du Lac. net shuffle made no difference in Please see story on Page 11 this for me.’” favour for his government with 55 Prof. Docherty acknowledged per cent of respondents, but 20 per that Mr. MacKay is probably bet- cent said they are more favourable. ter attuned to the political dynam- Mr. Lyle said this is partly because ics of the issues than his predeces- of Mr. Harper’s decision to move Devon Island researchers eye sor in national defence, Gordon former industry minister Maxime O’Connor (Carleton-Mississippi Bernier (Beauce, Que.) into the for- Mills, Ont.), but Minister MacKay eign affairs portfolio, and former greenhouse, rovers on Mars now has to ensure that he and international cooperation minister Gen. Rick Hillier, the chief of the areas such as new planetary vehicles and potential defence staff who attended last Publications Mail Agreement #40068926 Josée Verner (Louis-Saint Laurent, ‘We are really trying to understand the funda- Que.) into the Canadian heritage greenhouses for another remote destination—Mars. week’s Cabinet swearing-in cer- file. In Quebec, the moves for the mentals of the lunar and Martian landscape, The Haughton-Mars Project, located on Devon emony at Rideau Hall, are “talking Quebec ministers are supported the history of water on Mars, the history of ice Island, Nunavut, provides a environment for the on the same wavelength.” not only by Tories, but “it’s creep- development of technology that will help to both “And it doesn’t look like Mr. ing into groups like the Bloc,” Mr. on Mars,’ says the chair of the Mars Institute make the next phase of lunar exploration possible Hillier is the type of individual Lyle said. and will eventually put a person on Mars. who will sit down with the min- “For the first time in a long Now entering its 10th year, the project is man- ister and say, ‘Oh yes, let’s make time something went right for the By ROBERT SMOL aged by the Mars Institute, a private, not-for-profit sure we’re together on this before Conservatives in Quebec, and the public benefit research organization with ongoing I talk publicly.’” question is, can they keep it roll- Once the target of explorers seeking the elusive partnerships with NASA, the Canadian Space In this way, Mr. MacKay faces Northwest Passage to the Pacific, the islands of Nuna- Please see story on Page 10 vut are today attracting groundbreaking research into Please see Policy Briefing on Page 23 Please see story on Page 3 10 THE HILL TIMES, MONDAY, AUGUST 20, 2007 POLL MacKay’s move A look at Innovative Research Group’s to Defence most polling questions for The Hill Times, Aug. 17 positive: poll Have you read, seen or heard anything recently about a federal Overall, does the cabinet shuffle make you more or less likely to support the Conservatives in cabinet shuffle? Yes 87% the next election? (By language) Continued from Page 1 No 10% Don’t know 4% Much Somewhat Neither Somewhat Much ing? That will fall very much on the shoul- More More more nor less less ders of Bernier and Verner. They’re in the Did what you read, saw or heard about the new federal Cabinet likely likely less likely likely likely spotlight. Quebecers noticed. The question Ministers leave you feeling more or less favourable towards the federal government? English speakers 4% 8% 65% 8% 12% is can they run with that momentum?” More favourable 20% French speakers 2% 14% 53% 2% 21% At the same time however, those who A lot more favourable 4% said the shuffle made them more favour- Somewhat more favourable 16% able to the Conservatives were not nec- Less favourable 21% Overall, does the cabinet shuffle make you more or less likely to support the Conservatives in the essary more likely to vote for the Tories Somewhat less favourable 13% next election? (By political affiliation) A lot less favourable 8% in the next election, the poll found. Only Made no difference 55% 12 per cent of respondents said they are Much Somewhat Neither Somewhat Much more likely to vote Conservative in the The following is a list of changes to the federal cabinet, please indicate More More more nor less less next election because of the shuffle. This if you personally think this change is a good move, a bad move, or likely likely less likely likely likely also holds true in Quebec. “The people doesn’t really change anything? Conservative 10% 24% 63% 1% 0% that have been engaged by the shuffle ■ Peter MacKay as the new Minister of Defence, replacing Gordon O’Connor Liberal - 1% 65% 8% 23% in Quebec have not been persuaded,” Mr. Good move 38% NDP - 4% 61% 11% 21% Lyle said. “The government’s got their foot Does not change anything 26% Bloc 2% 4% 51% 5% 28% Bad move 15% in the door, but they haven’t closed the Green - 0% 68% 15% 12% sale, which is hardly a surprise. But the Don’t know 22% fact that they have their foot in the door is Undecided/DK - 2% 59% 9% 11% ■ Maxime Bernier as the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, both interesting and unexpected.” replacing Peter MacKay The poll asked whether respondents Good move 24% Overall, does the cabinet shuffle make you more or less likely to support the Conservatives in agreed that the Cabinet shuffle didn’t mat- Does not change anything 29% the next election? (By region) ter “because Prime Minister Harper makes Bad move 15% all of the decisions anyway,” or whether Don’t know 32% Much Somewhat Neither Somewhat Much they agreed that the shuffle was important ■ Josée Verner as the new Minister of Heritage, replacing Bev Oda More More more nor less less “because individual ministers have input Good move 24% likely likely less likely likely likely behind the scenes and are responsible Does not change anything 38% BC 3% 2% 73% 9% 11% Bad move 4% for running their departments effectively.” 8% 9% 70% 2% 11% Fifty-five per cent of agreed Don’t know 34% with the first statement, whereas 37 per Prairies 2% 12% 52% 13% 20% ■ Jim Prentice as the new Minister of Industry, replacing Maxime Bernier 4% 9% 64% 6% 13% cent agreed with the second statement. Good move 21% Nine per cent said they didn’t know. Does not change anything 38% Quebec 2% 13% 56% 2% 19% Peter MacKay’s (Central Nova, N.S.) Bad move 6% Atlantic 1% 6% 63% 19% 7% move to defence was seen as the most posi- Don’t know 34% tive. A net 23 per cent of people found it a ■ as the new Minister of State for Tourism, replacing good move, while his replacement at foreign Good move 17% affairs, Mr. Bernier, received a net positive Does not change anything 44% result from nine per cent of respondents. Bad move 2% Indian and Northern Affairs Minister Don’t know 37% (Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon, ■ Chuck Strahl as the new Minister of Indian Affairs, replacing Jim Prentice B.C.) received the only net negative score Good move 11% on the outcome of the move. Does not change anything 40% “Prentice got a plus-15 for moving Bad move 16% over to Industry replacing Bernier, who Don’t know 33% people actually quite liked, so he’s clearly ■ Gordon O’Connor as the new Minister of Revenue, replacing got some positive capital and I think the Good move 13% challenge for Strahl is Prentice is seen Does not change anything 41% as successful in that portfolio and now Bad move 13% there’s a question of what Strahl will do,” Don’t know 33% Mr. Lyle said. “It’s not a huge question ■ mark, it’s not a big negative, but it is, of Bev Oda as the new Minister of International Development, replacing Josée Verner all the moves, the one that on the balance Good move 10% got people the most negative. So Strahl’s Does not change anything 43% walking into big shoes.” Bad move 10% The poll was conducted online between Don’t know 37% Aug. 15-17 with 878 Canadians and is ■ Gerry Ritz as the new Minister of Agriculture, replacing Chuck Strahl considered accurate to within 3.3 percent- Good move 8% age points, 19 times out of 20. Does not change anything 46% [email protected] Bad move 5% The Hill Times Don’t know 42% -Source: Innovative Research Group online survey conducted between August 15th and 17th, with 878 eligible responses. Results are considered accurate within 3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Compiled by Rita Devlin Marier