Risk Analysis in Aquaculture: a Step-By-Step Introduction With
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Risk analysis in aquaculture: A step-by-step introduction with worked examples RISK ANALYSIS IN AQUacULTURE: A step-by-step INTRODUCTION WITH WORKED EXAMPLES RISK RISK A Authors N Curtis E. Lind,1 Genya V. Dana,2 Ramesh P. Perera3 and Michael J. Phillips1 A LYSIS IN IN LYSIS Authors Affiliations 1 Aquaculture and Genetics Discipline, WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia A 2 QU Dana & Sharpe Risk Associates, Arlington, VA 22206, USA [Disclaimer: This article was written prior to the current employment of G.V. Dana at the US ac Department of State. The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s), and do not ULTU necessarily reflect those of the US Department of State or the US Government.] 3 Biosecurity Australia, GPO Box 858, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia R E: A step-by-step INT step-by-step A E: Citation This publication should be cited as: Lind CE, Dana GV, Perera RP and Phillips MJ. 2015. Risk analysis in aquaculture: A step-by-step introduction with worked examples. WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia. Manual: 2015-08. Acknowledgments This research was supported by funding from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish. We are thankful to R Melba Reantaso, Rohana Subashinghe and Elena Irde (FAO) for their contributions to the design ODU and implementation of the workshop and for the participants who contributed to the workshop outputs that were used in the development of this publication. C TION WITH WO WITH TION R KED EX KED A MPLES 2 CONTENTS List of boxes 4 List of figures 5 List of tables 6 List of maps 7 Introduction 8 Hypothetical scenario for a risk analysis 9 Methodology and risk analysis approach 11 Risk analysis overview 11 Scoping the risk analysis 11 Stakeholder identification 11 Boundaries and objectives 12 Conceptual modeling 14 Assessment end points and measurement end points 16 Hazard Identification 17 Risk assessment 19 Exposure and effects 19 Uncertainty analysis 23 Risk management 26 C Risk communication 28 ONTENTS Conclusion 29 Notes 30 References 31 Appendices 34 I. Oreochromis species ranges in Zambia 34 II. Additional examples of key stages of a risk analysis – Ecological risks from an introduction of an improved strain of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) from Asia to Zambia 38 III. Additional examples of key stages of a risk analysis - Pathogen risks from the introduction of African catfish, Clarias gariepinus, from Nigeria to Zambia for aquaculture 45 3 LIST OF BOXES Box 1 Potential stakeholders relevant to the introduction of GIFT to Zambia for aquaculture. 12 Box 2 Boundaries and objectives of a risk analysis for the importation of GIFT into Zambia. 13 Box 3 Conceptual model of the potential interactions and linkages that may be affected by genetic impacts associated with the introduction of GIFT to Zambia. 15 Box 4 Assessment and measurement end points for a risk analysis of the potential genetic impacts of introducing GIFT to Zambia for aquaculture. 17 Box 5 Hazards identified that may lead to genetic impacts from the introduction of GIFT into Zambia, and a fault tree diagram highlighting the chain of events that must happen for genetic introgression to occur. 18 Box 6 Evaluating and estimating components of risk regarding the potential genetic impacts caused by a proposed GIFT introduction L into Zambia. 20 IST OF BOXES OF IST Box 7 Addressing uncertainty. 25 Box 8 Risk management options for minimizing the likelihood or consequence of potential harms caused by the introduction of GIFT to Zambia for aquaculture. 27 Box 9 Example of an approach for a risk communication strategy for GIFT introduction into Zambia. 28 4 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Map of Zambia, highlighting important fisheries areas. 9 Figure 2 Example of a risk evaluation matrix, highlighting differing severity of likelihood, consequence and risk categories, and a cutoff point of an acceptable level of risk (ALOR). 19 Figure 3 Example of data that could be used to inform risk assessment scoring. This figure highlights the replacement of O. mortimeri by introduced O. niloticus in gillnet catches in Lake Kariba, Zambia. 22 Figure 4 Screenshots from “Subjective Risk Assessment” tool (ACERA), as used for the assessment of GIFT introduction into Zambia. 22 Figure 5 Example of conceptual model developed by workshop participants. 39 Figure 6 Participants’ example of an event tree from escape of GIFT to adverse change in native tilapia species. 40 Figure 7 Conceptual model of the receiving environment and potential interactions relevant to pathogen transfer. 48 L IST OF FIGU OF IST Figure 8 Commodity distribution pathway diagram. 50 R ES 5 LIST OF TaBLES Table 1 Likelihood table used for risk assessment 20 Table 2 Definition of consequence scores for each end point assessed 20 Table 3 Key publications and sources of information used that may influence and support likelihood and consequence scores 21 Table 4 Common sources of uncertainty encountered in risk analysis 24 Table 5 Hazards Table 41 Table 6 Likelihood table 41 Table 7 Consequences for species richness and/or composition 41 Table 8 Consequences for sustainable fisheries production 42 Table 9 Consequences for nursery zones 42 Table 10 Risk management 44 L IST IST T OF Table 11 Risk communication 44 Table 12 Hazard Identification Table 49 A BLES Table 13 Nomenclature for qualitative likelihoods 51 Table 14 Matrix of ‘rules’ for combining descriptive likelihoods 51 Table 15 Matrix for estimating the ‘likely consequences’ for each outbreak scenario 52 Table 16 Risk estimation matrix 53 Table 17 Risk communication 55 Table 18 Risk analysis 55 6 LIST OF MaPS Map 1 Species range of Oreochromis andersonii 34 Map 2 Species range of Oreochromis macrochir 35 Map 3 Species range of Oreochromis mortimeri 36 Map 4 Species range of Oreochromis mossambicus 37 L IST OF OF IST Ma PS 7 INTRODUCTION This publication is based on materials covered and outputs generated during the Workshop on Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools for Aquaculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, which was jointly held by WorldFish and FAO in Siavonga, Zambia on 28 June–2 July 2010. The workshop was delivered as a training exercise to 17 participants from seven sub-Saharan countries and was designed to highlight current methodologies and tools available for environmental risk analysis in aquaculture development. A key focus of the workshop was to encourage participants to consider hypothetical but realistic scenarios and to discuss issues relevant to evaluating the environmental risks of a given activity or scenario. This publication presents selected scenarios from the workshop and the outcomes of the deliberative process as developed by the participants. The full workshop prospectus and agenda, including the participants list, can be downloaded at [http://www. worldfishcenter.org/resource_centre/FAO-WFC-Zambia-RA-Workshop-Prospectus.24.June.2010. pdf] This publication is factual but not comprehensive, therefore any statements or estimations of risk do not represent the actual risks arising from the described scenario. It is intended to serve as an easily readable introduction to risk analysis, highlighting worked examples that will provide guidance on how a risk analysis may be approached in a similar situation. INT R ODU C TION 8 HYPOTHETICAL SCENARIO FOR A RISK ANALYSIS Scenario: Transfer of Oreochromis niloticus from The GIFT (genetically improved farmed tilapia) Malaysia (GIFT strain) to Zambia for aquaculture strain of Nile tilapia is a domesticated strain that has been selectively bred for improved growth A proposal is received from a private farmer by and survival traits. GIFT populations have a regulatory authorities in Zambia for introducing growth rate which is 60–80% greater than an improved strain of Nile tilapia Oreochromis unselected Nile tilapia populations. The GIFT niloticus from Malaysia (GIFT strain) to a fish strain comes from brood stock which originated farm in Zambia for aquaculture purposes. in four wild populations (Egypt, Ghana, Kenya and Senegal) and four domesticated strains Oreochromis niloticus is a member of the family (Israel, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand). The Cichlidae. It is native to Africa and parts of Nile tilapia has been widely introduced for the Middle East. It is found in coastal rivers of aquaculture, with many existing strains now Israel; in the Albert Nile to the Nile Delta; in widely distributed through countries and H Jebel Marra; and in West Africa with a natural ecosystems in tropical regions globally. The YPOTHETI distribution that covers the basins of Benue, GIFT strain has been widely farmed throughout Chad, Gambia, Niger, Senegal and Volta. The Asia and the Pacific regions, but is not being maximum size is 60 cm, with a maximum cultured in Africa. recorded weight of 4.4 kg. It lives up to 9 years (Trewevas 1983). Other life history traits can be ca found in Fishbase.1 S L C EN Lake Tanganyika AR Lake FO IO Mweru Lake Mweru Wantipa TANZANIA R DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC A LUAPULA Kasama OF THE CONGO Lake R NORTHERN Malawi ISK Lake Bangweulu A Mansa N A a LYSIS Solwezi Muchinga Mts. ANGOLA ngw Lua MALAWI NORTH Ndola WESTERN Lungwebungu COPPERBELT MOZAMBIQUE a Chipata Lung CENTRAL Busanga a EASTERN Swamp Kafue i Kabwe unsemfw Zambezi Lukanga L River mbez Swamp MOZAMBIQUE Za Mongu Itezhi-Tezhi Lusaka LUSAKA Dam Kafue Kafue Flats Kariba Gorge Dam ZAMBIA WESTERN Mulonga IMPORTANT FISHERIES Plain Kariba Dam SOUTHERN IMPORTANT FISHERIES (SWAMPS) Lake ZIMBABWE NATIONAL CAPITAL Kariba PROVINCE CAPITAL RIVERS Livingstone NAMIBIA PROVINCE BOUNDARY INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY Note: Red dot indicates the location of farm that will receive the proposed introduced fish. Figure 1. Map of Zambia, highlighting important fisheries areas. 9 The species occurs in a wide variety of each have current or potential commercial freshwater habitats such as rivers, lakes, sewage significance for fisheries and aquaculture in canals and irrigation channels.