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Technical Assistance for Improving Emissions Control the Role Of This Project is Co-Financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey This Project is c This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey Technical Assistance for Improving Emissions Control Service Contract No: TR0802.03-02/001 Identification No: EuropeAid/128897/D/SER/TR The Role of Emissions Dispersion Modelling in Cost Benefit Analysis Applied to Urban Air Quality Management: Part 1-the Approach (Version 2: 18 May 2012) This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of the Consortium led by PM Group and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. Contracting Authority: Central Finance and Contracting Unit, Turkey Implementing Authority / Beneficiary: Ministry of Environment and Urbanisation Project Title: Improving Emissions Control Service Contract Number: TR0802.03-02/001 Identification Number: EuropeAid/128897/D/SER/TR PM Project Number: 300424 This project is co-financed by the European Union and the Republic of Turkey The Role of Emissions Dispersion Modelling in Cost Benefit Analysis Applied to Urban Air Quality Management: Part 1 – the Approach Version 2: 18 May 2012 PM File Number: 300424-06-RP-200 PM Document Number: 300424-06-205(2) CURRENT ISSUE Issue No.: 2 Date: 18/05/2012 Reason for Issue: Final Version for Client Approval Customer Approval Sign-Off Originator Reviewer Approver (if required) Scott Hamilton, Peter Print Name Russell Frost Jim McNelis Faircloth, Chris Dore Signature Date PREVIOUS ISSUES (Type Names) Issue No. Date Originator Reviewer Approver Customer Reason for Issue 1 14/03/2012 Scott Hamilton, Peter Russell Frost Jim McNelis For client review / comment Faircloth, Chris Dore CFCU / MoEU 300424-06-RP-205 (2) TA for Improving Emissions Control 18 May 2012 CONTENTS GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS ....................................................................................... vi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................. vii 1 Overview of the Impact Pathway Approach ......................................................... 1 1.1 Introductory Comments .................................................................................. 1 1.2 Impact Pathway Approach ............................................................................. 1 1.3 Strategic Air Quality Management Planning .................................................. 2 1.4 Local and Larger-Scale Urban Air Quality Management ................................ 3 1.4.1 Assessment Phase ........................................................................................ 3 1.4.2 The Options Analysis Phase .......................................................................... 4 1.4.3 The Strategy Development and Implementation Phase................................. 5 2 The Emissions Inventory ........................................................................................ 6 2.1 The role of emission inventories in Local Air Quality Management ............... 6 2.2 The scale of the study area ............................................................................ 6 2.2.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 6 2.2.2 Street scale emissions (bottom-up approach)................................................ 7 2.2.3 City scale emissions (top-down approach) .................................................... 7 2.3 Local Emission Inventories: Spatial and Time Resolution ............................. 7 2.4 The use of different assessment metrics: concentration limit values versus exposure or emission reductions ................................................................... 8 3 Air Quality Monitoring to Support Modelling........................................................ 9 3.1 Scope and Purpose ....................................................................................... 9 3.1.1 Selection of pollutants .................................................................................... 9 3.1.2 Averaging times ............................................................................................. 9 3.1.3 Fixed versus mobile monitoring sites ............................................................. 9 3.1.4 Monitoring techniques .................................................................................... 9 3.1.5 Network design and station locations............................................................. 9 3.2 Using monitoring data for dispersion model calibration ............................... 10 4 Emissions Mapping and Time Resolution .......................................................... 11 4.1 Local-level emission inventories .................................................................. 11 4.1.1 introduction .................................................................................................. 11 4.1.2 Defining the extent, the spatial resolution and the time resolution ............... 11 4.1.3 Compiling emission totals from localised measurement data ...................... 11 4.1.4 Height of emission releases ......................................................................... 12 4.1.5 Generating mapped emissions at the required spatial and time resolution . 13 4.2 City level emission inventories ..................................................................... 13 Dispersion Modelling in CBA Applied to Air Quality Management – Part 1 i CFCU / MoEU 300424-06-RP-205 (2) TA for Improving Emissions Control 18 May 2012 4.2.1 Generating emission totals from national level data .................................... 13 4.2.2 Defining the spatial resolution and extent .................................................... 13 4.2.3 Point, line and area sources......................................................................... 14 4.2.4 Generating city level mapped emissions...................................................... 15 4.2.5 Converting from annual to shorter time resolutions ..................................... 16 5 Dispersion Modelling ............................................................................................ 17 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 17 5.1.1 Scope of this Section ................................................................................... 17 5.1.2 Applications: local scale and urban scale .................................................... 17 5.1.3 Requirements and Limitations...................................................................... 19 5.2 The dispersion modelling process................................................................ 19 5.3 Types of dispersion model ........................................................................... 20 5.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................. 20 5.3.2 Gaussian models ......................................................................................... 20 5.3.3 Eulerian models ........................................................................................... 21 5.3.4 Lagrangian models ...................................................................................... 21 5.4 Uses of dispersion modelling ....................................................................... 21 5.5 Limitations of dispersion models .................................................................. 21 5.6 Characterisation of emission sources .......................................................... 22 5.7 Meteorology in dispersion modelling ............................................................ 23 5.7.1 Major meteorological factors ........................................................................ 23 5.7.2 Meteorological data for dispersion models................................................... 23 5.8 Gaussian versus advanced models ............................................................. 23 5.9 Modelling the local and urban scale ............................................................. 24 5.10 Dispersion modelling tools ........................................................................... 25 5.11 Minimising model error and uncertainty ....................................................... 27 5.11.1 Scope ........................................................................................................... 27 5.11.2 Model performance ...................................................................................... 27 5.12 Model calibration .......................................................................................... 28 6 Dispersion Modelling Case Studies .................................................................... 29 6.1 Local Example - Dispersion of vehicle emissions, UK Local Authority ........ 29 6.2 Urban Example - Exposure modelling in Beijing using CMAQ ..................... 31 6.3 Urban Example - Use of dispersion modelling to support air quality management in Istanbul ............................................................................... 33 6.4 Conclusion ................................................................................................... 38 7 Mapping of Air Quality Data ................................................................................. 39 7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................
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