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Feasibility Study: Modelling Environmental Concentrations of Chemicals from Emission Data EEA Technical report No 8/2007 Feasibility study: modelling environmental concentrations of chemicals from emission data ISSN 1725-2237 EEA Technical report No 8/2007 Feasibility study: modelling environmental concentrations of chemicals from emission data Cover design: EEA Layout: Diadeis and EEA Legal notice The contents of this publication do not necessarily reflect the official opinions of the European Commission or other institutions of the European Communities. Neither the European Environment Agency nor any person or company acting on behalf of the Agency is responsible for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report. All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrieval system, without the permission in writing from the copyright holder. For translation or reproduction rights please contact EEA (address information below). Information about the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (www.europa.eu). Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2007 ISBN 978-92-9167-925-6 ISSN 1725-2237 © EEA, Copenhagen, 2007 European Environment Agency Kongens Nytorv 6 1050 Copenhagen K Denmark Tel.: +45 33 36 71 00 Fax: +45 33 36 71 99 Web: eea.europa.eu Enquiries: eea.europa.eu/enquiries Contents Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 6 Executive summary .................................................................................................... 7 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 10 1.1 Purpose of the study ........................................................................................10 1.2 EPER chemicals and modelling priorities ..............................................................11 1.3 Structure of this report .....................................................................................15 2 Methodology ........................................................................................................ 16 2.1 Model evaluation criteria ...................................................................................16 2.2 Contents of a model toolbox ..............................................................................18 3 Phase 1 — Model evaluation ................................................................................ 20 3.1 General aspects ...............................................................................................20 3.2 Air Quality models ...........................................................................................20 3.3 Multimedia models ...........................................................................................38 3.4 Surface water models .......................................................................................59 3.5 Sewage treatment models.................................................................................63 3.6 Conclusions from Phase 1 .................................................................................66 4 Phase 2 — Strategy, demonstration and proposals for development....................67 4.1 Strategy development ......................................................................................67 4.2 Demonstration of the staged approach to modelling chemical density..................... 73 4.3 Work plan for predicting chemical density from EPER releases ................................97 4.4 Conclusions from Phase 2 ...............................................................................107 Appendix 1: Technical specification ........................................................................ 109 Appendix 2: List of participants .............................................................................. 112 Appendix 3: Comments on the draft final report from experts at the Brno chemical modelling summer school, July 2005 .................................... 113 Appendix 4: Proceedings of expert workshop, 16 August 2005, EEA, Copenhagen ......................................................................... 117 Feasibility study: modelling environmental concentrations of chemicals from emission data 5 Acknowledgements Acknowledgements This report is the output of a contract to AEA Brno summer school of Environmental Chemistry Technology, working in cooperation with and Ecotoxicology 2005, and the Copenhagen RECETOX‑TOCOEN. The authors were: workshop (see Appendix 4), and through other means. John Abbott (AEA Technology); Special thanks for their detailed review to: Keith Brown (AEA Technology); Michael McLachlan, Stockholm University, Sweden; Ivan Holoubek (RECETOX‑TOCOEN). Gerhard Lammel, Max Planck Institute, Hamburg, The EEA project manager was Gabriele Schöning. German;y Andreas Barkman, EEA project manager on air emissions, provided the necessary input on EPER. Victor Shatalov, MSC‑East Moscow, Russia; The authors and EEA wish to thank all who have Johannes Ranke, University of Bremen, Germany; contributed to the project through participating in the brainstorming meeting (see Appendix 2), the Martin Scheringer, ETH Zürich, Switzerland. 6 Feasibility study: modelling environmental concentrations of chemicals from emission data Executive summary Executive summary The purpose of this feasibility study is to develop 9. Summarise the findings in the final report. a toolbox of available methodologies and a work plan for applying relevant models to substances The findings from Phase 1 of the study were reported under the European Pollution Emission reported in an interim report submitted in May 2005. Register (EPER) in order to predict the composition This final report presents developments made under and distribution of these chemicals in the European the completion of the study in Phase 2, building environment — in effect, the 'chemical density' of on the strategy from the interim report stage. A Europe. The study aims to identify which of the draft of this final report has been reviewed at an available chemical models are sufficiently validated international summer school on chemical modelling and accepted to be used in a policy context and held in Brno in July 2005 and at an expert workshop which models are suitable for substances listed held in Copenhagen on 16 August 2005. This final under EPER. The focus of the study will therefore be report takes into account the feedback from the specifically on models suitable for large industrial review of the draft report. point source emissions, with emphasis on models suitable for manufactured chemicals and heavy The principal conclusions of this feasibility study metals. are as follows: The work, which has been undertaken in two 1. Predicting the chemical density of Europe from phases, consists of the following tasks: emissions data will require access to appropriate models and the data needed to drive them. Phase 1 2. A large number of models are available for 1. Identify available models. predicting environmental concentrations of 2. Verify their status of validation and general chemicals in single or multiple environmental acceptance. media. Many of these models are 3. Evaluate selected models for their ability to well‑established in terms of history of usage provide information on the spatial distribution in policy or regulatory applications, have of chemicals in the different environmental been peer‑reviewed and used as the basis of media in the geographical area of the EEA many peer‑reviewed scientific papers. Most member country and participating states. of these models are readily available, either 4. Scan models and provide information on the for purchase or as freeware. Most will run on time and spatial scale they cover, provide current Microsoft Windows® based personal expert judgement on the resolution needed computers commonly in general use and some for assessment of (pan) European, national, may be run interactively over the Internet. A few regional or local pollution and describe model require a more sophisticated platform, such as characteristics for each level. Unix or Linux workstations. Some established 5. Identify which models are applicable to EPER models, notably EMEP models, are not publicly substances. available, at least at present. 3. Models range from highly complex spatially Phase 2 and temporally resolved models capable of 6. Run one or more models for a test substance predicting small scale variations in chemical using EPER database releases to map chemical concentrations in one or more environmental concentrations, identify 'hot spots' assess media, to simpler screening tools that predict usefulness of EPER data for this purpose, concentrations averaged over wider spatial and and compare predicted concentrations with temporal domains. A number of leading models measured values, if available. have been identified for specific applications 7. Draft a work plan to extend Task 6 to all relevant that are particularly well‑established and models identified in Task 5. which could form the basis of a set of tools for 8. Develop a strategic proposal on how these modelling chemical density from emissions models and derived data can be used to data. The study has not attempted to identify estimate the chemical density in the European the 'best' model for any particular
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