Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development in Indonesia DISCLAIMER : The views expressed in this discussion paper are those of the author(s) 7 i

Population Dynamics and Sustainable Development in Indonesia

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Jose Ferraris Professor Emil Salim 7 v

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LIST of TABLES

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ADB; AEC; AFC; AFTA; ASC; ASCC; ASLUT; L Bappenas: L BKB; L BKKBN ; L BMI ; BPJS; L BPS; L BRIC; CBS; CCS; CEDAW; CRC;  DM; EPZ ;  FAO ; FDI; GenRe; GFSI ; GHGs; HEIs; HFA; HLPEP ; ICF; ICPD; ICT; IDHS; IFLS; IGI; ILO; ISTWS; 7 xi

IT; JKN; L JMA; KEN; L KM ; KPK;  M&A ; MIT; MOH/Kemenkes; L MOMT; MRAs; NCDs ; NTA; PBI; PISA ; PKH; L PLN; L PNPM; R & D; Riskesdas; L Sakernas; L SECI; SJSN; L STEM; SUSENAS TFP; TIMSS; TVS;  UHC/JKN; L UN; UNFPA; WB; WFH WFP; WHO; xii

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Age structure6

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Child marriage6>

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Human capital6

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1.1 OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY 

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1.2 POPULATION ISSUES AND MODELS

1.2.1 Human Rights Based Approach

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1.3.3 Environmental Dimension

1.3.4 Justice

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1.4 FRAMEWORK OF ANALYSIS   

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Future Population Dynamics: Three Mega Demographic Trends 18

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2.1 POPULATION SIZE BETWEEN 2015 AND 2030

2.1.1 The National Trend: Increasing Population ata Reduced Rate

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2.2 POPULATION AGE COMPOSITION: THE EMERGENCE OF A DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS AND AGEING POPULATION ? <   36



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2.2.4 Working-age Population (25-59 years old)

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Indonesia: Becoming a Magnet for Foreigners





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3.1. ECONOMIC DIMENSION

3.1.1 Promote Growth for Sustainable Consumption and Production

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3.2.1 Eradication of Capability Deprivation 7 77

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Gizi Buruk Gizi Kurang Gizi Normal Gizi Lebih Province V0V`VQ%`1.VR !:H@Q%`1.VR QRV`: VQ%`1.VR VCCQ%`1.VR 2005 20071 20101 2005 20071 20101 2005 20071 20101 2005 20071 20101 (1) (2)(3)(4)(5) (6) (7) (8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13) Aceh-10.70 7.10 - 15.80 16.60 -69.20 72.10 - 4.20 4.20 Sumatera Utara 10.45 8.40 7.80 18.20 14.30 13.50 67.79 72.70 71.10 3.56 4.50 7.50 Sumatera Barat 10.81 5.90 2.80 19.6314.30 14.40 66.88 77.00 81.30 2.682.80 1.60 Riau 9.277.50 4.80 16.54 13.90 11.40 67.52 73.30 75.20 6.67 5.30 8.60 Jambi 5.54 6.30 5.40 18.7212.6014.30 71.33 75.80 76.30 4.41 5.30 4.10 Sumatera Selatan 8.54 6.50 5.50 17.52 11.7014.40 69.02 75.00 74.50 4.92 6.705.60 Bengkulu 6.97 4.80 4.30 19.59 11.90 11.00 69.91 77.20 73.703.53 6.00 10.90 Lampung 7.24 5.703.50 16.7211.80 10.00 72.33 78.30 79.80 3.714.20 6.80 Kep. Bangka Belitung 8.704.603.20 17.04 13.7011.70 69.07 76.40 80.605.19 5.40 4.50 Kepulauan Riau - 3.00 4.30 - 9.40 9.80 - 81.50 81.30 -6.10 4.60

DKI Jakarta 7.30 2.90 2.6015.03 10.00 8.70 72.87 80.60 77.704.80 6.50 11.10 Jawa Barat 5.77 3.703.10 16.23 11.30 9.90 74.82 81.50 81.603.19 3.50 5.40 Jawa Tengah 5.84 4.00 3.30 18.13 12.00 12.40 73.34 80.40 78.10 2.693.60 6.20 DI Yogyakarta 4.08 2.40 1.40 10.97 8.50 9.90 81.76 85.00 81.50 3.19 4.00 7.30 Jawa Timur 5.67 4.80 4.80 18.09 12.6012.30 73.04 78.00 75.30 3.20 4.50 7.60 Banten6.98 4.40 4.80 19.19 12.20 13.70 69.49 79.90 77.50 4.33 3.40 4.00

Bali 5.10 3.20 1.7015.41 8.20 9.20 75.7383.90 81.00 3.76 4.708.00 Nusa Tenggara Barat 8.44 8.10 10.6024.95 16.7019.90 64.42 71.40 66.90 2.19 3.702.60 Nusa Tenggara Timur 13.04 9.40 9.00 28.03 24.20 20.40 57.25 64.40 67.50 1.682.00 3.10

Kalimantan Barat 11.56 8.50 9.50 21.16 14.00 19.70 63.61 72.50 67.00 3.67 5.00 3.90 Kalimantan Tengah 10.19 8.10 5.30 17.18 16.10 22.30 68.54 72.10 69.40 4.08 3.602.90 Kalimantan Selatan 11.29 8.40 6.00 24.48 18.20 16.80 61.94 70.40 73.10 2.29 3.00 4.00 Kalimantan Timur 7.59 6.20 4.40 18.33 13.10 12.70 69.55 75.30 75.90 4.53 5.40 7.00

Sulawesi Utara - 4.30 3.80 - 11.50 6.80 - 80.7084.30 - 3.605.10 Sulawesi Tengah 10.36 8.90 7.90 20.96 18.7018.60 66.50 69.40 69.10 2.18 3.00 4.40 Sulawesi Selatan 8.655.10 6.40 21.51 12.50 18.60 66.51 73.10 72.20 3.33 9.30 2.80 Sulawesi Tenggara 10.04 6.80 6.50 19.34 15.90 16.30 67.69 73.60 66.90 2.93 3.6010.20 Gorontalo15.41 8.20 11.20 26.07 17.20 15.30 56.44 71.30 69.40 2.07 3.30 4.10 Sulawesi Barat - 10.00 7.60 - 15.40 12.90 -72.10 74.90 - 2.40 4.70

Maluku 15.19 9.30 8.40 18.47 18.50 17.80 62.51 67.30 70.50 3.83 4.90 3.40 Maluku Utara 10.24 6.705.7017.06 16.10 17.90 68.90 74.30 73.20 3.80 3.00 3.20 Papua Barat - 6.80 9.10 - 16.40 17.40 -74.20 67.30 - 2.70 6.20 Papua 13.75 6.60 6.30 17.46 14.6010.00 63.93 73.40 78.40 4.86 5.30 5.30

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Percentage of women age 15-19 who have had a live birth or who are pregnant with their first child, and percentage who have begun childbearing, by province, Indonesia 2012

Percentage of women Percentage age 15-19 who: who have Have had a live Are pregnant with begun Number of Province birth first child childbearing women %I: V`: Aceh 3,0 2,2 5,2 142 North Sumatera 3,1 1,6 4,7 455 West Sumatera 1,4 1,9 3,3 145 Riau 4,4 1,5 5,8 144 Jambi 12,6 3,8 16,4 87 South Sumatera 9,1 2,8 11,9 190 Bengkulu 4,7 4,1 8,8 49 Lampung 8,1 3,8 11,9 220 Bangka Belitung 9,7 1,9 11,6 37 Riau Islands 4,4 0,4 4,8 36

:0: DKI Jakarta 2,4 1,6 4,1 278 West Java 7,6 3,6 11,2 1260 Central Java 4,7 1,1 5,7 943 DI Yogyakarta 4,7 1,4 6,1 96 East Java 8,0 2,1 10,1 931 Banten 6,2 1,3 7,5 358

:C1:JR %: VJ$$:`: Bali and Nusa Tengga 6,8 2,1 8,9 106 West Nusa Tenggara 8,4 3,8 12,3 152 East Nusa Tenggara 4,1 2,2 6,3 159

":C1I:J :J West Kalimantan 19,8 3,1 22,9 114 Central Kalimantan 16,7 3,8 20,5 59 South Kalimantan 12,7 3,7 16,4 114 East Kalimantan 9,3 3,7 13,0 100

%C:1V1 North Sulawesi 10,8 4,2 15,0 71 Central Sulawesi 14,5 5,2 19,779 South Sulawesi 6,7 3,9 10,6 274 Southeast Sulawesi 10,7 5,1 15,8 62 Gorontalo 8,8 4,9 13,6 35 West Sulawesi 15,5 1,6 17,1 33

$:C%@%:JR&:]%: Maluku 5,4 2,67,9 47 North Maluku 9,2 2,6 11,8 35 West Papua 13,0 4,3 17,3 22 Papua 11,8 2,5 14,3 93

Total 7,0 2,5 9,5 6927

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13.05 10 11.26 7.18 4.06 4.43 1.43 1.43 1.83 2.45 0 0.76 0.88 0.75 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

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Labor Productivity Growth (%), 1990-2011

10 9.1 9 8 7 6 4.9 4.7 5 4.3 4.1 3.3 3.2 4 3 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.1 3 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 2 1.3 1 0 a k ey US k Iran istan India ROC Japan China k Korea Tur Vietnam Vietnam Pa Thailand Malaysia Australia Indonesia Sri Lan Singapore Cambodia Philippines Bangladesh Hong Kong

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