PHOSPHORUS FLOWS IN CHINA Physical Profiles and Environmental Regulation Promotor: Prof. dr. ir. A. P. J. Mol Hoogleraar Milieubeleid Wageningen Universiteit, Nederland Samenstelling Promotiecommissie: Prof. dr. F. Biermann Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Nederland Prof. dr. J. Chen Tsinghua University, P. R. China Prof. dr. P. P. S. Ho Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, Nederland Prof. dr. H.B.J. Leemans Wageningen Universiteit, Nederland Dit onderzoek is uitgevoerd binnen de onderzoekschool PHOSPHORUS FLOWS IN CHINA Physical Profiles and Environmental Regulation Yi Liu Proefschrift ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor op gezag van de rector magnificus van Wageningen Universiteit, Prof.dr.ir. L. Speelman in het openbaar te verdedigen op maandag 23 mei 2005 des namiddags te vier uur in de Aula Yi Liu Phosphorus Flows in China: Physical Profiles and Environmental Regulation/ Wageningen: Wageningen University PhD-Thesis Wageningen University ISBN 90-8504-196-1 © Copyright Yi Liu, 2005 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any from by any means without prior permission of the author. Preface Water eutrophication has become one of the most severe environmental problems in China, in parallel with rapid economic and societal transitions of this developing country. The lack of overall knowledge on societal cycles of nutrients, however, has contributed to the longstanding absence of effective and efficient eutrophication control in China. In order to provide a scientific basis for future improvement of eutrophication policy, this thesis has developed a comprehensive methodology by combining a substance flow analysis approach with an environmental policy evaluation framework. By applying this combined methodology for phosphorus, this thesis has systematically analyzed the physical profiles and the environmental regulations of substance flows, at both national and local (Dianchi Basin) levels. Although this study has not revealed the entire secret of curbing eutrophication via ecologizing phosphorus flows, it does prove its value, in both methodological and practical terms, for the scientific field of societal metabolism and in particular for the Chinese ongoing practice of establishing a circular economy. This doctoral research had been implemented in the framework of the ENRICH (Environmental Management in China) project, a collaborative education and research program between Wageningen University in the Netherlands and Tsinghua University in China. The project was sponsored by SAIL foundation (now part of NUFFIC), to which I am very grateful. I feel indebted to Professor dr. Arthur Mol. One can doubt that this thesis will come into being without his great enthusiasm of and commitment to this research project. The academic quality of this thesis was highly improved by his expertise and critical and detailed refinements on all chapters. I appreciate that he always inspired and encouraged me at the most difficult time during this research. What I have already learnt from him will benefit me a lot for my entire lifetime, although I have not been able to learn enough on all occasions. I highly appreciate Professor dr. Jining Chen, the program leader at Tsinghua University. Without his trust and recommendation, I could never have come to the Netherlands. His invaluable supports and advices, far beyond this thesis, have greatly benefited me. Special thanks go to Prof. dr. P. P. S. Ho and Dr. P. Du, the program coordinators of the ENRICH project, for their all helpful arrangements which enabled me to actively participate in this program as well as to concentrate on my PhD research. I would like to extend appreciation to Dr. Ester van der Voet, Dr. René Kleijn, Dr. Reid Lifset and Dr. Lei Shi for their stimulating comments on some theoretical and applicable issues of material flow analysis. I owe many thanks to Prof. dr. Hans Bruyninckx, Prof. dr. Tianzhu Zhang, Prof. Shengtong Cheng and Prof. dr. Yi Qian for their constructive suggestions on environmental policy analysis approaches. I am also grateful to Prof. dr. Leen Hordijk, Prof. Thomas Graedel, Dr. David Sonnenfeld, Prof. dr. Gert Spaargaren and Prof. dr. Kris van Koppen for helpful discussions on either the theory of industrial ecology or the Chinese idea of circular economy. During my fieldworks in Dianchi Basin, many local officials and experts and friends have helped me. I wish to extend my special thanks to Mr. Shuzhuang He, Prof. Hongtao Wang, Prof. Guanghe Li, Mr. Yimin Wang, Mr. Zhaoliu Chen, Mr. Yifeng Lu, Dr. Yan Liu, Mr. Bo Wang and Mr. Bojing Yang. I owe many thanks to all colleagues and fellow PhD candidates at the Environmental Policy Group in Wageningen University for the harmonious and friendly working environment. I am very grateful to Ms. Corry Rothuizen, always being there, for her support to me and my family. I thank Dr. Peter Oosterveer for sharing his PhD experience with me. My special thanks go to Ms. Loes Maas for all her arrangements to facilitate my stay and Drs. Judith van Leeuwen for her important spiritual encouragements. I would like to thank all my Chinese friends in the Netherlands. Special thanks go to Dr. Lei Zhang, Drs. Zhongkui Sun, Dr. Liping Wen, Dr. Bo Jiang, Mr. Xiucheng Fan, Dr. Zhenfei Guan, Drs. Lan Ge, Drs. Nan Chen, Ms. Dexue Tian, Drs. Lijin Zhong, Drs. Fu Sun, Drs. Minpeng Chen, Ms. Ming Zhao, Mr. Hai Guo, Ms. Yang Wang, Mr. Chunguang Li, for their helps and the sharing of joys and sadness with me. The last, not the least, I am in great debt to my wife, Ms. Yuan Ma, for her love, understanding and support over the years, especially for her company during the last several months of this PhD experience. Wageningen, April 2005 vi Contents Preface v Contents vii Lists of Tables, Figures and Appendices ix Abbreviations xi Chapter 1 Introduction 1 1.1 General Introduction 1 1.2 Phosphorus Flows in Natural and Societal Contexts 2 1.2.1 The biogeochemical cycle of P substances 2 1.2.2 Societal metabolism of P bulk-materials: A historical view 3 1.2.3 P use and induced resource and environment issues 5 1.3 Eutrophication Control in China 7 1.3.1 The state of eutrophication as indicated by P 7 1.3.2 Eutrophication control approaches: a view of P flows 8 1.4 Research Questions 9 1.5 Structure of Thesis 10 Chapter 2 Research on Societal Metabolism of P: Methodology 13 2.1 Introduction 13 2.2 Analyzing Societal Metabolism of P 14 2.2.1 Physical-based analytical methods 15 2.2.2 Material flow analysis approaches 17 2.2.3 Modeling P flows by a SFA approach 22 2.3 Implementation of Environmental Policy Evaluation 24 2.3.1 Methods of environmental policy evaluation 24 2.3.2 Evaluating P-related environmental policies in China 27 2.4 Research Strategy 28 2.5 Methods of Data Collection 29 Chapter 3 Material Flow and Ecological Restructuring in China: the Case of Phosphorus 33 Abstract 33 Keywords 33 3.1 Introduction 33 3.2 Material Flow Analysis and Ecological Restructuring 35 3.3 Framing National Phosphorus Flow 36 3.3.1 The static SFA model 36 3.3.2 Analysis and identification of the structure of flows 43 3.4 Ecological Restructuring Analysis 45 3.5 Discussion and Conclusions 48 References 50 Chapter 4 Evaluation of Phosphorus Flows in the Dianchi Watershed, Southwest of China 53 Abstract 53 Keywords 53 4.1 Introduction 53 4.2 The MFA/SFA Method and Phosphorus Metabolism 55 4.3 The Case of Dianchi Watershed 57 4.4 Modeling Phosphorus Flow in Dianchi Watershed 59 4.4.1 Structure of the SFA Model 59 4.4.2 Results Discussion 61 4.5 Conclusion: Towards Prospects 65 References 66 Chapter 5 Reflection on the Substance Flow Analysis Approach 69 5.1 Introduction 69 5.2 Principles to Reduce Data Uncertainty 70 5.3 Development of PHOSFLOW Model in 2000 72 5.4 Modification of PHOSFAD Model 76 5.4.1 Mining and Phosphate Industry 76 5.4.2 Crop farming 78 5.4.3 Livestock husbandry 79 5.4.4 Population 80 5.4.5 Wastes treatment/ disposal 80 5.5 Comparative Analysis of Physical Characteristics 81 5.5.1 Aggregate Physical Structure 82 5.5.2 Sectoral Metabolic Efficiency 84 5.6 Discussion on the Changes in P Loads to Water 87 5.7 Conclusions: Setting an Agenda for Policy Evaluation 89 Chapter 6 Evaluation of P-related Environmental Regulation in China 93 6.1 Introduction 93 6.2 Regulation of P Emission from Intensive Livestock 94 6.2.1 Economic and environmental profiles of animal husbandry in China 95 6.2.2 The national regulatory framework: an ex ante evaluation 98 6.2.3 P regulation on animal husbandry in Dianchi Basin 104 6.3 Centralized Control for P in Urban Domestic Wastewater 108 6.3.1 Urban wastewater treatment and P control in China 108 6.3.2 Urban centralized P control in Dianchi Basin 115 6.4 The Ban of P Containing Detergents 119 6.4.1 STPP use in a global context: background of the P ban 119 6.4.2 Analysis of P detergents ban in China: An overview 121 6.4.3 Implementation of P detergents ban in Dianchi Basin 125 6.5 Discussions and Conclusions 128 Chapter 7 Ecologizing Societal P Metabolism: Conclusions 131 7.1 Introduction 131 7.2 Physical Characteristics of P Throughput 131 7.2.1 The physical structure of P throughputs 131 7.2.2 Structural change of societal P throughput: an outlook 134 7.3 Regulating the Societal P Metabolism 135 7.4 The Methodology and Its Application: A Revisit 138 7.4.1 Advantages and limitations of the methods 138 7.4.2 Applicability of this methodology for China 141 7.5 Epilogue: Towards a Gradual Restructuring of P Flows 143 References 145 Appendices 163 Summary