Havering COVID-19 Statistics

This report brings together information published elsewhere to provide residents with a clear statement about the coronavirus pandemic in Havering. It is updated weekly.

New cases of coronavirus

The number of people testing positive for coronavirus in the UK is published each day on the GOV.UK website1.

The current situation in Havering – Week 38, ending 24 September 2021 As of 24 September 2021, 35,740 Havering residents have tested positive for coronavirus. 2

Number of Havering residents testing positive for coronavirus each week from 13 March 2020 to 24 September 2021

4000

3500 3460 3175 2974 3000 2891

2500

2000 1775 1550 1500 Numberof cases 1170 972 945 939 930 1000 907 749 717 717 687 678 672 663 651 647 586 567 536 502 481 471 392 374

500 302 287 229 225 207 196 159 158 157 131 128 110 102 94 91 87 86 83 79 79 75 75 64 60 53 53 49 44 38 37 36 34 32 31 28 26 26 23 22 21 19 18 16 15 12 11 11 9 10 10 7 5 2 0 10-Jul 10-Jul 24-Jul 09-Jul 23-Jul 03-Apr 03-Apr 17-Apr 02-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 02-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 12-Jun 12-Jun 26-Jun 08-Jan 22-Jan 11-Jun 25-Jun 06-Mar 06-Mar 20-Mar 05-Feb 19-Feb 05-Mar 19-Mar 07-Aug 07-Aug 21-Aug 04-Sep 18-Sep 13-Nov 27-Nov 11-Dec 25-Dec 06-Aug 20-Aug 03-Sep 17-Sep 01-May 01-May 15-May 29-May 14-May 28-May

1 From 2 July 2020 onwards, this website reported the results of testing in all settings and the data has been cleaned to remove duplicates. Previously, only pillar 1 data were shown. Pillar 1 comprises NHS and PHE labs testing NHS patients and staff, and care home residents and staff in new outbreaks; Pillar 2 comprises commercial labs testing people in the community attending regional drive through centres, mobile testing units or requesting a home test and regular testing in care homes. 2 Prior to 12 May 2020, only NHS patients or people engaged in specific occupations could access testing, and many people do not develop symptoms and therefore do not know they should be tested; so many more people will actually have been infected.

471 cases were reported in the last week, a decrease of 10 cases compared to the previous week. This equates to an incidence rate3 of 182 new cases/100,000 population which is lower than the London average (191/100,000), and England (327/100,000) average.

Weekly rate of new cases per 100,000 population in Havering, London and England: 4 September 2020 – 24 September 2021

Havering London England 1400

1200

1000

800

600 Rate / 100,000 Rate / 100,000 400

200

0 02-Jul 09-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 02-Oct 02-Oct 09-Oct 16-Oct 23-Oct 30-Oct 02-Apr 09-Apr 16-Apr 23-Apr 30-Apr 01-Jan 08-Jan 15-Jan 22-Jan 29-Jan 04-Jun 11-Jun 18-Jun 25-Jun 05-Mar 12-Mar 19-Mar 26-Mar 05-Feb 12-Feb 19-Feb 26-Feb 04-Sep 04-Sep 11-Sep 18-Sep 25-Sep 06-Nov 13-Nov 20-Nov 27-Nov 04-Dec 11-Dec 18-Dec 25-Dec 06-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug 03-Sep 10-Sep 17-Sep 24-Sep 07-May 14-May 21-May 28-May

The number of new cases in Havering and in neighbouring areas rose significantly between September and December 2020. Rates started declining in January 2021 and by May they were below 20/100,000. Throughout June and the beginning of July rates were rising again due to the spread of the new Delta variant but started to decline from mid-July.

Latest weekly rates show all adjacent local authorities have rates higher than 167/100,000.

Nationally, Kettering (1,007/100,000) has the highest rate.

3 Rates are used as a way of comparing the number of cases across different populations of different sizes over a given period. In this instance, by calculating how many cases have been diagnosed for every 100,000 people in Havering and other selected areas (number of cases / population size x 100,000), we are able to compare the relative Covid-19 burden. Number / rate of new cases in Havering, neighbouring areas, London and England: 18 to 24 September 2021

Number of Weekly new cases in rate per Area Population week ending 100,000 24-09-2021 residents Havering 471 259,552 181.5 Barking and Dagenham 357 212,906 167.7 Basildon 446 187,199 238.2 Brentwood 166 77,021 215.5 Epping Forest 266 131,689 202.0 Redbridge 637 305,222 208.7 Southend on sea 375 183,125 204.8 Thurrock 360 174,341 206.5 London 17,121 8,961,989 191.0 England 183,889 56,286,961 326.7 Kettering 1,025 101,776 1007.1

The Office for National Statistics publishes an interactive map showing the rates of new confirmed cases at locality level (small neighbourhood areas such as MSOA). Rates are suppressed where there have been fewer than 3 cases in a seven-day period. This is to protect the privacy of individuals and prevent disclosure.

The ONS map currently shows that most neighbourhoods had an incidence rate higher than 100/100,000.

Positivity and rates of testing

More information about testing is now published at local authority level on the GOV.uk website.

Since May 2020, anyone with symptoms has been told to book a PCR test4. Positivity rate i.e. the % of PCR tests that test positive for coronavirus is another useful measure of the scale of new infections in the community.

At New Year, more than 25% of all PCR tests of Havering residents were positive. The positivity rate reduced to 0.2% by mid-May, increased to over 10% in July and started to decline again in August, mirroring the changes in the rate of new cases. The latest positivity rate for Havering as of 21 September was 6.5%, higher than London (4.2%) and national average (4.8%).

Weekly percentage of people testing positive (PCR test) in Havering: January to 21 September 2021 Havering Positivity % (PCR only) London Positivity % (PCR only) England Positivity % (PCR only)

30

25

20

15 Positivity(%) 10

5

0 01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep

Early in January 18,000 PCRs tests per week were recorded for Havering residents. The number of PCR tests then reduced to just over 5,000 per week in early June as fewer people were experiencing symptoms that might be due to coronavirus infection. The number of tests being conducted rose over the month of July but have been declining again since early August.

4 Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests go to a laboratory for testing. It can take a few days to receive the result from these laboratory-based tests, however a positive result is very accurate for confirming coronavirus infection. It remains important that anyone with symptoms isolates immediately and books a test. Between a quarter and a third of cases of coronavirus do not display symptoms and yet may be infectious. Everyone is encouraged to regularly get a rapid community test using a Lateral Flow Device5.

Havering Council began providing residents with access to rapid community testing just before Christmas and nearly 12,000 tests are now being done each week. Rapid testing home kits are also available to pupils, teaching staff and health and care staff. The increase in Lateral Flow Device Testing in September can be attributed to secondary school aged children testing as they return to school after their summer break.

Weekly number of people receiving a Lateral Flow Device Test (LFT) or Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test in Havering: January to 21 September 2021

Number of people in Havering who have had a LFT test the previous 7 days Number of people in Havering who have had a PCR test the previous 7 days

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000 Number of testsNumberof 15000

10000

5000

0 01-Jan 01-Feb 01-Mar 01-Apr 01-May 01-Jun 01-Jul 01-Aug 01-Sep

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Patients with COVID-19 at BHRUT Hospitals The number of COVID-19 inpatients at BHRUT Hospitals began to rise in September 2020 initially slowly but then much more quickly before peaking in mid-January 2021 when more than 500 people were admitted. Subsequently the number fell very significantly to fewer than 10 at the start of June but started rising again in July. As of 24 September 2021, there are 48 inpatients with COVID-19.

Number of COVID-19 inpatients at BHRUT hospitals August 2020 to 24 September 2021

600

500

400

300

200 Number of inpatients Numberof inpatients

100 48

0 03-Jul 17-Jul 31-Jul 10-Oct 10-Oct 24-Oct 10-Apr 24-Apr 02-Jan 16-Jan 30-Jan 05-Jun 19-Jun 13-Mar 13-Mar 27-Mar 13-Feb 27-Feb 01-Aug 01-Aug 15-Aug 29-Aug 12-Sep 26-Sep 07-Nov 21-Nov 05-Dec 19-Dec 14-Aug 28-Aug 11-Sep 08-May 22-May Deaths due to coronavirus

The Office for National Statistics publishes information regarding the number of deaths with COVID-19. The latest data (for the week ending 17 September 2021) shows there were 2 COVID-19 related deaths in Havering in the preceding week. In total the number of deaths in Havering with COVID-19 is 939.

Number of COVID-19 related deaths each week from 29 March 20 to 17 September

80 75

70 64 62 61 60 57 50 50 50 4746 39

40 31 31 27 30 26 25

Numberof deaths 20 18 18 20 1617 17 16 16 14 12 11 10 7 78 4 5 4 4 2 2 32 2 2 2 3 3 2 001001100000101 11000000100001001 00 0 1 0 10-Jul 10-Jul 24-Jul 09-Jul 23-Jul 03-Apr 03-Apr 17-Apr 02-Oct 16-Oct 30-Oct 02-Apr 16-Apr 30-Apr 12-Jun 12-Jun 26-Jun 08-Jan 22-Jan 11-Jun 25-Jun 20-Mar 20-Mar 05-Mar 19-Mar 05-Feb 05-Feb 19-Feb 07-Aug 07-Aug 21-Aug 04-Sep 18-Sep 13-Nov 27-Nov 11-Dec 25-Dec 06-Aug 20-Aug 03-Sep 17-Sep 01-May 01-May 15-May 29-May 14-May 28-May

Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine

The NHS in England is currently offering the COVID-19 vaccine to everyone aged 16 and over and some children aged 12 to 15 who have a higher risk of getting seriously ill from COVID-19 or who live with someone at high risk of catching it. Vaccine uptake data is published for Havering, East London, London and England and can be accessed at NHS.uk.

The latest data for the period 8 December 2020 to 19 September 2021 shows 79% of the population in Havering have had their first dose of the vaccine which is similar to the national average (80%) but higher than East London (66%) and London (68%) average.

74% of the population in Havering have had their second dose of the vaccine which is higher than East London (59%) and London (62%) and similar to the national average (75%).

Please note that the National Immunisation Service (NIMS) data is used in these calculations. NIMS data is considered the most accurate source for estimating the size of the population and is derived from the GP registration database.

Number and percentage of people vaccinated in London and England: 8 December to 19 September 2021 Vaccination 1st Dose Havering East London London England Age group Number % Number % Number % Number % 18-24 13,395 64.2% 118,421 53.5% 523,495 55.4% 3,482,424 66.0% 25-29 11,334 61.8% 136,800 56.1% 594,345 58.3% 2,865,065 64.0% 30-34 13,282 64.3% 150,932 55.7% 633,491 57.3% 3,171,068 66.4% 35-39 14,544 70.5% 140,599 59.2% 600,912 59.8% 3,208,893 70.9% 40-44 14,268 76.7% 125,628 65.9% 567,598 65.4% 3,162,576 76.4% 45-49 14,087 81.8% 109,395 71.8% 520,727 71.3% 3,288,090 82.0% 50-54 15,806 86.8% 104,321 76.5% 510,328 76.0% 3,659,862 86.5% 55-59 15,852 89.0% 92,324 79.3% 465,332 78.8% 3,625,178 88.9% 60-64 13,961 90.1% 75,014 81.5% 373,340 81.2% 3,127,250 90.6% 65-69 11,183 91.3% 56,219 83.9% 285,688 83.5% 2,670,286 92.4% 70-74 11,622 93.1% 46,827 86.9% 252,500 86.4% 2,709,264 94.5% 75-79 8,340 94.0% 31,818 87.8% 177,570 87.5% 1,975,177 95.4% 80+ 12,409 94.3% 45,792 87.5% 250,712 87.0% 2,618,355 95.0% Total 170,083 79.3% 1,234,090 66.0% 5,756,038 67.6% 39,563,488 79.9%

Vaccination 2nd Dose Havering East London London England Age group Number % Number % Number % Number % 18-24 10,768 51.6% 87,840 39.7% 401,899 42.5% 2,738,714 51.9% 25-29 9,592 52.3% 112,585 46.2% 503,469 49.4% 2,405,202 53.7% 30-34 11,650 56.4% 130,777 48.3% 556,498 50.3% 2,782,813 58.3% 35-39 13,211 64.0% 125,380 52.8% 540,967 53.9% 2,917,825 64.5% 40-44 13,304 71.5% 114,439 60.0% 523,365 60.3% 2,959,579 71.5% 45-49 13,431 78.0% 101,210 66.5% 487,124 66.7% 3,133,371 78.2% 50-54 15,330 84.2% 98,344 72.1% 483,197 71.9% 3,538,142 83.6% 55-59 15,467 86.8% 87,490 75.2% 441,757 74.8% 3,515,817 86.2% 60-64 13,644 88.1% 71,680 77.9% 357,801 77.9% 3,047,149 88.3% 65-69 11,009 89.9% 54,384 81.2% 277,148 81.0% 2,629,227 91.0% 70-74 11,507 92.2% 45,716 84.9% 246,786 84.5% 2,678,853 93.5% 75-79 8,270 93.2% 31,068 85.8% 173,601 85.6% 1,954,078 94.4% 80+ 12,213 92.8% 44,459 84.9% 243,383 84.5% 2,570,568 93.3% Total 159,396 74.3% 1,105,372 59.1% 5,236,995 61.5% 36,871,338 74.4% Implications

As from 5 January 2021 the government introduced a National Lockdown, requiring everyone to stay at home except for specific purposes. From 12 April, the restrictions have gradually been relaxed as the 4 tests that Government is using to make decisions are being met (GOV.UK). Most legal restrictions to control COVID-19 were lifted on 19th July 2021. Some requirements will remain legally enforceable e.g. anyone who tests positive must isolate. A traffic light system for international travel has been introduced, and you must follow the rules when returning to England depending on whether you return from a red, amber or green list country. From 4 October 2021, the rules for international travel to England will change from the red, amber, green traffic light system to a single red list of countries and simplified travel measures for arrivals from the rest of the world. The rules for travel from countries and territories not on the red list will depend on your vaccination status (for more information see GOV.UK).

We must all remain vigilant, continue to test regularly, isolate immediately whenever needed and get vaccinated with both doses as soon as possible.

In addition, everyone can continue with four simple actions to protect ourselves and each other:  Wash hands - keep washing your hands regularly  Cover face - wear a face covering in enclosed or crowded spaces  Make space – avoid enclosed or crowded spaces as far as possible  Fresh air – better still, meet family, friends etc. outside if possible. And we must comply with the expectations of NHS test and trace:-  If you develop symptoms, you must isolate immediately and get tested as soon as possible  If you test positive, you must . self-isolate for a minimum 10 full days, and until symptom free (you can stop self-isolating after the 10 days if you do not have any symptoms or you just have a cough or changes to your sense of smell or taste – these can last for weeks after the infection has gone) . and share information with the NHS test and trace service when they get in touch so that your close contacts don’t inadvertently spread the infection further. o If you've been in close contact with someone who has COVID-19, you must self-isolate for 10 full days, unless you are double vaccinated or aged under 18 years and 6 months. o From 16th August, if you are double vaccinated or aged under 18 years and 6 months, you will not need to self-isolate following close contact with someone who has COVID-19. Young people and double vaccinated individuals identified as close contacts will continue to be advised to take a PCR test, to detect the virus and variants of concern. Anyone who tests positive following the PCR test will still be legally required to self-isolate, irrespective of their age or vaccination status.

Detailed guidance for households with possible or confirmed infection is available on the GOV.UK website

Visit the Council website for more information on how you can do your bit and tell us what you’re doing to keep your community safe.

Please note: The data presented here are as shown on the specified website on the date given. They may be subject to amendment by PHE or ONS at a later date. Further information will be added to this page as it becomes publicly available. Contact [email protected] for further information and previous data. Last Updated: 27 September 2021