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CBRE Hot 100 2016 winners in ’s residential market CBRE Residential 2–3 Hot 100 2016

The year is drawing to a close and so our annual Hot 100 report is published. Find out where was hot in 2016.

Contents Best performing locations 4–5 Most affordable boroughs 8–9 For nature lovers 10–11 For shopaholics 14–15 Boroughs for renters 16–17 Best school provision 20–21 Tallest towers 22–23 Highest level of development 24–25 Demographic trends 28–29 Best economic performance 30–31 CBRE Residential 4–5 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Best performing locations

Although prices remain highest in , with homes in Kensington and Chelsea averaging £1.35 million, the other London boroughs continue to see the highest rate of growth. For the second year running Newham tops the table for price growth. This year prices in Newham increased by 24%; up from 16% last year. The areas characterised by significant regeneration, such as and Barking and , are recording price rises of 18% and 17%, which is well above the average rate of 12%.

Top Ten Price growth Top Ten Highest value

1 Newham 23.7% 1 Kensington and Chelsea £1,335,389 2 Havering 19.0% 2 City of £964,807 3 Waltham Forest 18.9% 3 £863,829 4 Croydon 18.0% 4 Camden £797,901 5 Redbridge 18.0% 5 Ham. and £795,215 6 17.2% 6 Richmond upon Thames £686,168 7 Barking and Dagenham 17.1% 7 £676,178 8 16.7% 8 £624,212 9 16.5% 9 Hackney £567,230 10 Sutton 16.5% 10 Haringey £545,025

360 Barking CBRE Residential 6–7 Hot 100 2016 CBRE Residential 8–9 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Most affordable boroughs Using a simple ratio of house prices to earnings we can illustrate the most affordable boroughs. For the second year running Bexley comes out as the most affordable for its local residents. In second place is , with a close third. Tower Hamlets makes its first entrance in the top ten (last year in 5 Barking and 12th slot), replacing Hillingdon, which is now in 14th place. 6 Redbridge Dagenham 9 Tower Hamlets 9.7% 10.1% 9.4%

House price to earnings ratio % 4 Havering 1 Bexley 8.17 9.0% 2 Bromley 8.79 3 Greenwich 8.91 4 Havering 9.00 5 Barking and Dagenham 9.43 6 Redbridge 9.75 7 9.88 8 Croydon 10.07 9 Tower Hamlets 10.12 10 Sutton 10.35

House price to earnings ratio

18 (%)

16

14

12 1 Bexley 10 8.2%

8 7 Kingston upon Thames 3 Greenwich 6 9.9% 8.9%

4

2 10 Sutton 10.3% 2 Bromley 0 8.8% Brent Sutton Barnet Bexley Enfield Harrow Bromley Islington Camden Croydon Hackney Newham Havering Haringey Lewisham Hillingdon Redbridge Greenwich 8 Croydon Wandsworth Tower Hamlets Tower Ham. & Fulham Waltham Forest Waltham 10.1% Kens. & Chelsea Kens. City of Westminster Kings. upon Thames Richm. upon Thames Barking & Dagenham CBRE Residential 10–11 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 For nature lovers

Outside space, fresh air and greenery are increasingly recognised as necessary for wellbeing. Havering has the largest percentage of open space being home to many parks such as Raphael Park, and Park. Upminster Golf Club is also located in Havering. Richmond upon Thames comes in at third and is well known for Richmond Park and Gardens to name a few; a large part of the borough is designated as part of the . Although, unsurprisingly we don’t find any inner London boroughs in this top ten, there are many oases of calm to be found in the city centre, not least, Hyde Park, Regent’s Park and Kensington Gardens.

Total square meters % of of green space borough

1 Havering 67,575,440 59.0

2 Bromley 86,245,303 57.4

3 Richmond upon Thames 33,500,925 57.0

4 Enfield 39,861,193 48.5

5 Hillingdon 52,107,306 45.0

6 Redbridge 22,750,573 40.3

7 Greenwich 19,816,164 39.3

8 Bexley 24,997,725 38.9

9 Barnet 32,665,095 37.7

10 Hounslow 21,221,417 37.5 CBRE Residential 12–13 Hot 100 2016 CBRE Residential 14–15 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 For shopaholics

A recent CBRE survey highlighted the symbiotic relationship Retail would make a development between quality retail and residential development, with more appealing 77% of respondents saying good retail provision had a strong positive impact on residential values. Unsurprisingly Westminster, which includes the famous shopping destinations 86% of Oxford Street, Regent Street and Bond Street has the highest Good quality retail had a ‘strong positive’ number of shops. Although Islington misses out on a top ten impact on residential slot for shops, it creeps in at number 10 for food and beverage outlets, with over 500 restaurants, cafes and bars. 77%

Important to have a strong retail offering Number of shops Food and beverage outlets 1 Westminster 5,937 1 Westminster 2870 83% 2 Barnet 2,189 2 City Of London 1438

3 City Of London 1,895 3 Barnet 732 Preferred independent stores 4 Kensington & Chelsea 1,822 4 Wandsworth 640 5 & Fulham 1,590 5 Croydon 580 65% 6 Newham 1,587 6 Camden 564

7 Croydon 1,552 7 Lambeth 564 ‘Convenience’ was the main benefit of living around retail 8 Wandsworth 1,538 8 Kensington & Chelsea 559 9 Brent 1,479 9 Hammersmith & Fulham 548 10 Lambeth 1,170 10 Islington 512 91%

Which type of retail outlet would you most like to have in your residential development?

70% 54% 54% 44% 36% 34%

Coffee shop Supermarket Restaurant Bar / wine bar Convenience Delicatessen / patisserie store CBRE Residential 16–17 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Boroughs for renters

Despite having the highest rental growth for the second year running, Bexley remains the cheapest borough with rents of £1,051 pcm. Unsurprisingly, the prime boroughs of Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and the City have the highest rents, all in excess of £3,000pcm.

Highest rents pcm Lowest rents pcm

1 Kensington and Chelsea £3,391 1 Bexley £1,051 2 Westminster £3,188 2 Havering £1,138 3 City of London £3,108 3 Barking and Dagenham £1,170 4 Camden £2,634 4 Sutton £1,188 5 Islington £2,306 5 Bromley £1,276 6 Hammersmith and Fulham £2,250 6 Hillingdon £1,280 7 Lambeth £2,183 7 Croydon £1,311 8 Tower Hamlets £2,113 8 Redbridge £1,312 9 Hackney £2,057 9 Enfield £1,319 10 Wandsworth £1,901 10 Waltham Forest £1,328

Rental growth % Share of private renters %

1 Bexley 7.4 1 Westminster 43.3 2 Havering 6.5 2 Newham 42.5 3 Islington 4.8 3 Ealing 35.0 4 Lambeth 4.8 4 Lambeth 34.4 5 Hammersmith and Fulham 4.1 5 Hammersmith and Fulham 33.1 6 Harrow 3.9 6 Kensington and Chelsea 33.1 7 Sutton 3.5 7 Camden 32.0 8 Brent 3.1 8 Tower Hamlets 31.5 9 Enfield 3.0 9 Wandsworth 31.2 10 Croydon 3.0 10 Waltham Forest 30.0

Nine Elms Point CBRE Residential 18–19 Hot 100 2016 CBRE Residential 20–21 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Best school provision

London has 3,118 primary schools. Of these, 658, or 21%, are rated outstanding. Although Southwark has the highest number of outstanding schools, at 31, Harrow with 30 outstanding schools actually records the highest proportion of outstanding primary schools, at 38%. This top ten includes 11 boroughs as Kingston upon Thames, Newham, Barnet and Sutton all have 25% outstanding schools.

Share of Number of Total number Borough outstanding outstanding of schools schools 1 Harrow 38% 30 78 2 Richmond upon Thames 31% 25 81 3 Southwark 27% 31 113 4 Lambeth 27% 26 98 5 Wandsworth 26% 30 114 6 Lewisham 26% 26 99 7 Redbridge 26% 25 96 8 Kingston upon Thames 25% 17 67 9 Newham 25% 27 107 10 Barnet 25% 30 120 11 Sutton 25% 18 72 CBRE Residential 22–23 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Top 10 Tallest towers under construction Tallest towers with planning permission

We are having a resurgence of high rise development and London’s skyline is changing. The towers of today are so far removed from the much maligned council blocks of the ‘60s. Designed by starchitects, they come with a plethora of amenities and other benefits. The tallest tower in London is , at over 1,000 feet. The tallest residential tower in London is Berkeley’s The Tower, One St George’s Wharf. However, at ‘just’ 49 storeys, it will soon be overtaken by another Berkeley tower – and The . Also just coming out of the ground, we have the . Although it has fewer floors than South Quay Plaza and the Landmark, at 771 ft, it will be Western Europe’s tallest residential building.

Spire London

Scheme Name Borough Developer Total homes Storeys Scheme Name Borough Developer Total homes Storeys

1 Landmark Pinnacle Tower Hamlets Chalgrove 822 75 1 Alpha Square Tower Hamlets Drakar Ltd 634 65

2 South Quay Plaza Tower Hamlets Berkeley Homes SE London 888 68 2 South Quay Plaza 4 Tower Hamlets Berkeley Homes SE London 396 56

3 Spire London Tower Hamlets Greenland (UK) Investment 861 67 3 Morello Quarter - Morello Tower Croydon Redrow / Menta 499 55

4 The Diamond Tower Tower Hamlets Group 611 59 4 New Covent Garden Market Wandsworth VSM Estates Limited 2971 51

5 One Wandsworth Dalian Wanda Group 487 59 5 AYKON London One Lambeth AYKON / DAMAC 450 50

6 1 Park Drive Tower Hamlets 483 57 6 Square Lambeth CLS Holdings Plc 578 50

7 Tower Hamlets Ballymore Group 756 55 7 Convoys Wharf Lewisham Hutchison Property Group (UK) Ltd 3500 48

8 The Madison Tower Hamlets LBS Properties 423 53 8 Bankside Quarter Southwark Carlyle Group 489 48

9 KPF Tower Tower Hamlets Canary Wharf Group 797 51 9 Millharbour Village Tower Hamlets Galliard Homes 861 43

10 Hackney Brookfield Europe 329 50 9 Portal West Business Centre Ealing City & Docklands Property Group 578 42 CBRE Residential 24–25 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Highest level of development

As is typical across the whole of the UK, homebuilding in London falls woefully short of the levels needed. We estimate London needs to build around 52,000 homes per annum to keep up with demand, yet for the last decade or so, we built an average of 19,000 units each year. However, some areas are leading the way; Tower Hamlets currently has 9,400 units under construction with a further 17,000 in the planning pipeline. Greenwich also has 17,000 units with planning permission.

Under construction Units Schemes With planning permission Units Schemes

1 Tower Hamlets 9,409 45 1 Greenwich 17,038 86 2 Newham 5,957 21 2 Tower Hamlets 17,006 194 3 Southwark 4,402 37 3 Barnet 16,534 125 4 Wandsworth 4,084 20 4 Newham 14,766 99 5 Greenwich 3,250 24 5 Hammersmith and Fulham 11,049 97 6 Croydon 2,932 23 6 Wandsworth 10,753 169 7 Hackney 2,629 26 7 Barking and Dagenham 9,068 41 8 Barnet 2,538 29 8 Ealing 8,763 84 9 Westminster 2,500 34 9 Lewisham 8,466 84 10 Brent 2,392 17 10 Southwark 7,687 260

London Dock CBRE Residential 26–27 Hot 100 2016 CBRE Residential 28–29 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Demographic trends

London has 8.7 million residents; nearly Largest population 6 million are of working age, with just under 1 million over 65 year olds. Clearly as the 1 Barnet 383,100 population grows, sufficient housing needs to 2 Croydon 380,700 become available. Tower Hamlet’s has the 3 Ealing 349,700 highest expected population growth, with 4 Newham 332,600 nearly 60,000 additional residents forecast 5 Enfield 329,000 over the next decade. Luckily as our previous top ten shows it also comes in at the top for 6 Brent 325,300 number of units currently under construction. 7 Bromley 324,600 8 Lambeth 322,000 9 Wandsworth 318,000 10 Southwark 306,700

Highest number of working age % Number

1 Barnet 65.3 250,202 2 Croydon 65.1 247,670 3 Lambeth 74.6 240,300 4 Ealing 67.8 236,932 5 Newham 71.1 236,329 6 Wandsworth 73.7 234,300 7 Southwark 73.9 226,500 8 Brent 68.3 222,232 9 Tower Hamlets 74.3 213,226 10 Enfield 64.7 212,871

Strongest forecast population growth % Number

1 Tower Hamlets 20 57,420 2 Barking and Dagenham 18 36,648 3 Redbridge 15 44,610 4 Barnet 14 53,634 5 Newham 14 46,564 6 Hillingdon 14 41,510 7 Greenwich 14 38,220 8 Hackney 14 37,142 9 Kingston upon Thames 14 23,926 10 City of London 14 1,148 CBRE Residential 30–31 Hot 100 2016

Top 10 Best economic performance

The housing market is inextricably linked to the underlying economic performance of an area. As economic growth increases and as employment increases, the demand for housing increases. Hackney with its burgeoning technical and creative hub, had the highest GDP growth last year and is expected to grow the fourth fastest over the next decade. Although Westminster has the largest overall economic base GDP, it had below average growth last year of 2% (in at 25th).

Largest forecast GDP Largest current GDP growth % % growth up to 2026

1 Hackney 8 1 Southwark 42 2 Newham 5 2 Camden 39 3 Southwark 5 3 Hackney 37 4 Brent 5 4 Tower Hamlets 36 5 Redbridge 5 5 Hounslow 36 6 Haringey 5 6 Islington 34 7 Wandsworth 4 7 Harrow 34 8 Lewisham 4 8 Lambeth 34 9 Camden 4 9 City of London 34 10 City of London 4 10 Wandsworth 32

Largest forecast employment Highest employment rate % % growth up to 2026

1 City of London 5 1 Southwark 20 2 Hackney 4 2 Camden 17 3 Newham 4 3 Hackney 16 4 Camden 4 4 Tower Hamlets 15 5 Tower Hamlets 3 5 Harrow 14 6 Southwark 3 6 Redbridge 14 7 Greenwich 3 7 Haringey 14 8 Redbridge 2 8 Islington 13 9 Havering 2 9 Lambeth 13 10 Haringey 2 10 Greenwich 13 CBRE Residential 32–33 Hot 100 2016

Sources Land Registry, Molior, EGi, National Statistics, Rightmove, Nationwide.

Photography P12-13 colin bain / Alamy Stock Photo. P15 depositphotos.com / irstone. P20-21 © istockphoto.com / JoeDunckley.

Disclaimer CBRE Limited confirms that information contained herein, including projections, has been obtained from sources 2016 CBRE believed to be reliable. While we do not doubt their accuracy, we have not verified them and make no guarantee, Jennet Siebrits Mark Collins Lisa Hollands warranty or representation about them. It is your responsibility to confirm independently their accuracy and Head of Residential Research London Residential London Residential completeness. This information is presented exclusively for use by CBRE clients and professionals and all rights to Senior Director Chairman Managing Director the material are reserved and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE. T: +44 (0)20 7182 2066 T: +44 (0)20 7182 2264 T: +44 (0)20 7420 2004 © 2016 CBRE Ltd. E: [email protected] E: [email protected] E: [email protected] cbreresidential.com/research