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Cuba: a New Policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement Counter Our Hitherto Self-Imposed Role of Critical the Conduct and Timing of Foreign Policy Re- Observer

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Cuba: a New Policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement Counter Our Hitherto Self-Imposed Role of Critical the Conduct and Timing of Foreign Policy Re- Observer Cuba in Transition in Cuba U.S. Policy Toward a a Toward Policy U.S. Foreign Policy Brookings Project on on Project Brookings CUBA: Una Nueva Política at BROOKINGS Report of the the of Report de Diálogo Crítico y Constructivo ABRIL 2009 APRIL 2009 APRIL Engagement Critical and Constructive Constructive and Critical Informe del Proyecto de Brookings sobre P New A CUBA: olicy of of olicy la Política de Estados S NG KI OO BR at oreign P oreign F olicy Unidos hacia Cuba en Transición Foreign Policy CUBA: A New Policy of at BROOKINGS Critical and Constructive Engagement MEmbERS OF THE CORE GROUP OF ADVISERS APRIL 2009 Co-Directors Carlos Pascual Vicki Huddleston Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy Visiting Fellow The Brookings Institution The Brookings Institution Project Advisers Gustavo Arnavat Jesús Gracia Attorney at Law Former Spanish Ambassador to Cuba Ann Louise Bardach Paul Hare Author/Journalist Former British Ambassador to Cuba University of California Santa Barbara Francisco J. (Pepe) Hernández Dr. Ramon Colás President Co-Director Cuban American National Foundation Center for the Understanding of Cubans of African Descent Dr. William LeoGrande Dean, School of Public Affairs Dr. Jorge I. Domínguez American University Vice-Provost for International Affairs Antonio Madero Professor of Mexican and Latin Dr. Marifeli Pérez-Stable American Politics and Economics Vice President for Democratic Governance Harvard University Inter-American Dialogue Daniel Erikson Jorge R. Piñón Senior Associate for U.S. Policy Energy Fellow Director of Caribbean Programs Center for Hemispheric Policy Inter-American Dialogue University of Miami Dr. Mark Falcoff Dr. Archibald Ritter Resident Scholar Emeritus Distinguished Research Professor Emeritus American Enterprise Institute Department of Economics and Norman Paterson School of International Affairs Dr. Damián J. Fernández Carleton University Provost and Executive Vice President Purchase College Andrés Rozental Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Dr. Andy S. Gomez Institution Nonresident Senior Fellow, The Brookings Former Deputy Foreign Minister of Mexico Institution Assistant Provost, University of Miami Carlos Saladrigas Senior Fellow, Institute for Cuban and Cuban Co-Chairman American Studies Cuba Study Group Report of the The advisory group is fully independent. Members served in their personal capacity and not under instructions from any organization or government. The report reflects strictly personal views of the Brookings Project on members of the group and is in no way an expression of their views in their official capacity nor the U.S. Policy Toward a views of any government or organization with which they are affiliated. Cuba in Transition Foreword Under the auspices of the Brookings Institu- in Cuba and the United States. By testing the re- tion’s project “U.S. Policy toward a Cuba in Transi- sponses of several strategic actors and stakehold- tion,” nineteen distinguished academics, opinion ers—the Cuban hierarchy, independent civil so- leaders, and international diplomats committed ciety, and the international and Cuban American themselves to seeking a strong and effective U.S. communities—to a variety of scenarios, we have policy toward Cuba. identified potential catalysts and constraints to political change on the island. Our advisers are well known experts in the field of U.S.-Cuba relations, and come from diverse back- We arrived at the same conclusion: the United grounds and political orientations. Half of them States should adopt a policy of critical and con- are also Cuban American. Over the past eigh- structive engagement, phased-in unilaterally. To teen months, project advisers and special guests this end, we have created a roadmap of executive have carried out a series of simulation exercises actions that would allow President Barack Obama and discussions that have served to enhance our to align our policy with the region and restore understanding of the complex political realities normal bilateral relations over time. Carlos Pascual Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy The Brookings Institution Vicki Huddleston Visiting Fellow The Brookings Institution Brookings Project on U.S. Policy Toward a Cuba in Transition iii Acknowledgements We at Brookings are grateful to the members Diana Negroponte and Raj Desai were a constant of the core group of advisers for contributing source of ideas throughout the project. their time, depth of expertise and rich experienc- es to this project. We are delighted to have worked The project also benefited from the information with such a diverse group toward a consensus on and opinions generously shared by a wide range a broad range of issues. of individuals during the simulation exercises and other project-related events, including Frank Al- In addition to our advisers, we have worked maguer, Fulton Armstrong, Anders Aslund, Mau- closely with other experts in the field. Our rec- ricio Cárdenas, Paul Cejas, Alex Correa, Margaret ommendations for policy would not have been Crahan, Isabel Estrada-Portales, John Ferch, Alan made possible without Robert Muse and Richard Flanigan, Joe Garcia, Col. Sam Gardiner, Robert Popkin, who have helped us navigate the maze of Gelbard, Tom Gjeltan, Guillermo Grenier, Or- embargo laws and regulations. We are indebted lando Gutierrez Boronat, Peter Hakim, Alcibi- to Hugh Gladwin, Katrin Hansing and Guillermo ades Hidalgo, Caryn Hollis, Jose Miguel Insulza, Grenier for their research and polling work on Kirby Jones, Brian Latell, Bruce Levy, Abe Lowen- Cuban American opinion in Florida. thal, John McAuliff, Carmelo Mesa-Lago, Capt. Michael Mohn, Carlos Alberto Montaner, Frank Within Brookings, Dora Beszterczey was instru- Mora, David Mutchler, Despina Manos, José Pas- mental in the writing and editing of this paper, as cual Marco Martinez, Carlos Ricardo Martins well as managing the project and its research at Ceglia, Eusebio Mujal-Leon, Angelos Pangratis, large. Amélie Rapp provided invaluable research Michael E. Parmly, Phil Peters, Albert Ramdin, assistance and led the translation of the paper into Dan Restrepo, Riordan Roett, Arturo Sarukhán Spanish. Other assistance throughout the course Casamitjana, Jack Sheehan, Wayne Smith, Jaime of the project was provided by Dan Sullivan, Jason Suchlicki, Julia E. Sweig, Jay Taylor, Octavio Tripp, Trentacoste, Michael Bustamante, Danielle Barav, and Michael Wilson. Tiziana Dominguez, and Jessica Despres. We are indebted to the support of Foreign Policy staff, This project would not have been possible with- particularly Charlotte Baldwin, Peggy Knudson, out the generous financial support of the Liberty Gail Chalef, Ian Livingston, Maggie Humenay Mutual Group, The Cleveland Foundation, the and Shawn Dhar. Carol Graham, Ted Piccone, Cuba Study Group and other donors. Brookings Project on U.S. Policy Toward a Cuba in Transition v Cuba: A New Policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement U.S. policy toward Cuba should advance the toward Cuba would reflect the hemisphere’s and democratic aspirations of the Cuban people and our own desire to encourage the Cuban govern- strengthen U.S. credibility throughout the hemi- ment to adopt international standards of democ- sphere. Our nearly 50-year old policy toward racy, human rights, and transparency. Cuba has failed on both counts: it has resulted in a downward spiral of U.S. influence on the is- Engagement does not mean approval of the Cu- land and has left the United States isolated in the ban government’s policies, nor should it indicate hemisphere and beyond. Our Cuba policy has be- a wish to control internal developments in Cuba; come a bellwether, indicating the extent to which legitimate changes in Cuba will only come from the United States will act in partnership with the the actions of Cubans. If the United States is to region or unilaterally—and ineffectually. Inevita- play a positive role in Cuba’s future, it must not bly, strategic contact and dialogue with the Cuban indulge in hostile rhetoric nor obstruct a dialogue government will be necessary if the United States on issues that would advance democracy, justice, seeks to engage the Cuban people. and human rights as well as our broader national interests. Perversely, the policy of seeking to iso- This paper proposes a new goal for U.S. policy to- late Cuba, rather than achieving its objective, has ward Cuba: to support the emergence of a Cuban contributed to undermining the well-being of state where the Cuban people determine the polit- the Cuban people and to eroding U.S. influence ical and economic future of their country through in Cuba and Latin America. It has reinforced the democratic means. A great lesson of democracy Cuban government’s power over its citizens by in- is that it cannot be imposed; it must come from creasing their dependence on it for every aspect of within; the type of government at the helm of the their livelihood. By slowing the flow of ideas and island’s future will depend on Cubans. Our policy information, we have unwittingly helped Cuban should therefore encompass the political, eco- state security delay Cuba’s political and economic nomic, and diplomatic tools to enable the Cuban evolution toward a more open and representa- people to engage in and direct the politics of their tive government. And, by too tightly embracing country. This policy will advance the interests of Cuba’s brave dissidents, we have provided the Cu- the United States in seeking stable relationships ban authorities with an excuse to denounce their based on common hemispheric values that pro- legitimate efforts to build a more open society. mote the well-being of each individual and the growth of civil society. To engage the Cuban gov- The Cuban Revolution of 1959 is a fact of histo- ernment and Cuban people effectively, the United ry that cannot be removed or unlived, but, over States will need to engage with other govern- time, Cuba will change. As the Cuban people ments, the private sector, and non-governmental become inexorably linked to the region and the organizations (NGOs).
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