Job Name:2105384 Date:14-12-31 PDF Page:2105384cbc.p1.pdf Color: Black PANTONE 1255 C the Communist Challenge in the Caribbean and Central America the Communist Challenge in the Caribbean and Central America Howard J. Wiarda and Mark Falcoff with Ernest Evans and jiri and Virginia Valenta American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research Washington, D.C. Distributed to the Trade by National Book Network, 15200 NBN Way, Blue Ridge Summit, PA 17214. To order call toll free 1-800-462-6420 or 1-717-794-3800. For all other inquiries please contact the AEI Press, 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 or call 1-800-862-5801. Acknowledgments are given at back of book. Distributed by arrangement with UPA, Inc. 4720 Boston Way Lanham, MD 20706 3 Henrietta Street London WC2E 8LU England Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Wiarda, Howard J., 1939- The communist challenge in the Caribbean and Central America. Bibliography: p. 1. Caribbean Area-Relations-Soviet Union. 2. Soviet Union-Relations-Caribbean Area. 3. Soviet Union-Foreign relations-1945- . 4. Communism­ Caribbean Area-History-20th century. 5. Geopolitics­ Caribbean Area. I. Falcoff, Mark. II. Title. F2178.S65.W52 1987 327.729047 87-14032 ISBN 0-8447-3627-9 ISBN 0-8447-3628-7 (pbk.) AEI Studies 458 © 1987 by the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without permission in writing from the American Enterprise Institute except in the case of brief quotations embodied in news articles, critical articles, or reviews. The views expressed in the publications of the American Enterprise Institute are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the staff, advisory panels, officers, or trustees of AEI. "American Enterprise Institute" and @ are registered service marks of the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Printed in the United States of America Contents FOREWORD Christopher C. DeMuth ix PREFACE Howard]. Wiarda xi CONTRIBUTORS xiii INTRODUCTION 1 Howard J. Wiarda 1 The Debate over the Soviet Presence in Latin America 1 Proxies, Partisans, and Satellites: Aspects of the Soviet Presence in Latin America 3 The Book: A Look Ahead 10 COMMUNISM IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 2 CARIBBEAN Mark Falcoff 13 The Caribbean in Soviet Strategic Planning 16 The Political Environment in the Caribbean Basin 17 Cuba 20 Nicaragua 30 Grenada 43 SOVIET POLICY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 3 AMERICA: OPPORTUNITIES AND CONSTRAINTS Howard J. Wiarda 51 Sovietologists and Latin Americanists: A Meeting of the Minds? 51 The U.S.S.R. and Latin America: New Capabilities and Tactics 55 The Soviet Union and Latin American Realities 62 Conclusions and Implications 70 Bibliography 76 v SOVIET STRATEGIES AND POLICIES IN THE CARIBBEAN 4 BASIN Jiri Valenta and Virginia Valenta 79 Shifts in Soviet Policies, 1960-1986 81 Soviet Strategic Objectives 85 Soviet Policies toward Revolutionary Regimes: Cuba, Nicaragua, and Grenada 92 Soviet Policies toward "Progressive" Regimes: Mexico and Panama 109 Soviet Policies toward "Bourgeois-Liberal" Regimes: Venezuela, Costa Rica, and Colombia 113 Soviet Policies toward "Reactionary" Regimes: El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras 118 Regional Cqnflict in the Caribbean Basin 123 Future Soviet-Cuban Strategy in the Caribbean Basin 126 CUBA'S STRATEGY IN EXPORTING REVOLUTION 5 Mark Falcoff 144 Theories of Revolution: Conflict and Convergence 145 Cuban-Soviet Military Links 147 Cuban Contributions to Soviet Expansionism: Methodologies 149 Cuban Contributions to Soviet Expansionism: Resources 151 Cuba's Role: The Case of Nicaragua 154 Cuba's Role: The Case of Grenada 155 Cuba's Role: Nonrevolutionary States 156 Future Prospects 156 REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENTS IN CENTRAL AMERICA: 6 THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW STRATEGY Ernest Evans 160 The Earlier Generation of Revolutionary Movements 161 Contemporary Revolutionary Movements in Latin America 168 Patterns of Violence 177 Conclusion: Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy 179 vi BISHOP'S CUBA, CASTRO'S GRENADA: NOTES TOWARD 7 AN INNER HISTORY Mark Falcott 187 Cuba's Revolutionary Foreign Policy 187 Cuba and the New Jewel Revolution 188 Implications for Future Cuban Policy 193 Implications for Future U.S. Policy 194 THE IMPACT OF GRENADA IN CENTRAL AMERICA 8 Howard /. Wiarda 198 The Rising Soviet-Cuban Presence in Central America and the Caribbean Basin l~9 What the Grenada Documents Reveal 199 The U.S. Intervention and Its Effects 205 Conclusions and Implications 212 NICARAGUAN HARVEST 9 Mark Falcott 218 Nicaragua's Revolution 218 Nicaragua's Problems 220 Rising Totalitarianism 226 The Opposition and the Future 231 AFTERWORD 10 Mark Falcott 234 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 240 INDEX 243 vii The American Enterprise Council of Academic Robert A. Goldwin Institute for Public Advisers Resident Scholar Policy Research Co-Director, D. Gale Johnson, Chairman Constitution Project University of Chicago Gottfried Haberler A nonpartisan, nonprofit Donald C. Hellmann Resident Scholar research and educational University of Washington Economic Policy organization established in Robert A. Nisbet William S. Haraf 1943, AEI is supported by Albert Schweitzer Professor J.E. Lundy Visiting foundations, corporations, of Humanities Emeritus at Scholar Columbia University and the public at large. Its Karlyn H. Keene purpose is to assist policy Herbert Stein Resident Fellow makers, scholars, business A. Willis Robertson Editor, Public Opinion Professor of Economics men and women, the press, Emeritus at University Evron Kirkpatrick and the public by providing of Virginia Resident Scholar objective analysis of Murray L. Weidenbaum Marvin H. Kosters national and international Washington University Resident Scholar issues. Views expressed in Director, Economic Policy James Q. Wilson Studies AEI publications are those James Collins Professor of the authors and do not of Management at David Michael Lampton necessarily reflect the views University of California Adjunct Scholar at Los Angeles of the staff, advisory panels, Director, China Project officers, or trustees of AEI. Marion Ein Lewin Gerald R. Ford Director, Center for Distinguished Fellow Health Policy Research Arthur F. Bums S. Robert Lichter Executive Committee Distinguished Scholar DeWitt Wallace Fellow Jeane J. Kirkpatrick John H. Makin Willard C. Butcher, Chairman Senior Fellow Counselor to the Resident Scholar The Chase Manhattan Bank, N.A. Director, Fiscal Policy President for Foreign Paul F. Oreffice, Vice Chairman Policy Studies Studies The Dow Chemical Company Irving Kristol Michael Novak Christopher C. DeMuth Senior Fellow George F. Jewett Scholar President, AEI Director, Social and Political Herbert Stein Studies John J. Creedon Senior Fellow Metropolitan Life Insurance Co. Editor, AEI Economist Norman J. Ornstein Resident Scholar Richard B. Madden BenJ. Wattenberg Potlatch Corporation Senior Fellow William A. Schambra Robert H. Malott Resident Fellow FMC Corporation Co-Director, Claude E. Barfield Constitution Project Richard M. Morrow Resident Fellow Amoco Corporation Director, Science and William Schneider Technology Resident Fellow Richard D. Wood Eli Lilly and Company Douglas J. Besharov C. Eugene Steuerle Resident Scholar Resident Scholar Director, Social Responsibility Project Edward Styles Director, Publications James F. Hicks Phillip Cagan Vice President, Finance and Adjunct Scholar John C. Weicher Administration, Treasurer, Director, Contemporary F. K. Weyerhaeuser Scholar Secretary Economic Problems Howard J. Wiarda Patrick Ford Marvin L. Esch Resident Scholar Vice President, Development Director, Seminars and Director, Hemispheric and Public Relations Programs Studies Foreword AEI has long been in the forefront of strategic and foreign policy studies, with extensive publications on Asia, the Middle East, Europe and NATO, Latin America, and the U.S.-Soviet relationship. Over the years we have analyzed such diverse topics as SALT, detente, the Atlantic alliance, terrorism, the defense buildup, and U.S. strategic policy and made policy recommendations on them. In this volume we turn our attention to the role of the Soviet Union, Cuba, and Nicaragua in the Caribbean and Central America. Two main arguments have dominated the debate: one, that the Soviet Union and Cuba are the cause of all the trouble in the region; and, two, that the Communist issue is a red herring, a bogus issue without basis in fact. This book sets the record straight. It outlines the rising Soviet military, cultural, diplomatic, economic, and political influence in the region. It also traces the growing sophistication of Soviet strategies and tacticS', as well as the limits on the Soviets in the area. It shows how the Soviet Union, while not the instigator of most Latin American instability, has learned how to play on the heightened nationalism, anti-Americanism, and desire for change in the region and to profit from them. In taking advantage of the shaky insitutions of the area, the Soviet Union is able to expand its influence, embarrass the United States, and turn the existing instability to its own purposes. We hope this book will encourage discussion on these critical issues. This book was completed with financial support from the Mellon Foundation, Citicorp, the Pew Memorial Trust, and another major foundation, which wishes to remain anonymous. We thank them for their generous support; the book that follows, however, expresses the