Spotlight on Iran (August 9 – 23, 2015)
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The Regionalist Perspective a Thesis Submitted
TURKEY’S FLUCTUATING RELATIONS WITH IRAN, 2002-2019: THE REGIONALIST PERSPECTIVE A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF SOCIAL SCIENCES OF MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY BY ZEHRA FUNDA SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN THE DEPARTMENT OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS JANUARY 2021 1 2 Approval of the thesis: TURKEY’S FLUCTUATING RELATIONS WITH IRAN, 2002-2019: THE REGIONALIST PERSPECTIVE submitted by ZEHRA FUNDA SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in International Relations, the Graduate School of Social Sciences of Middle East Technical University by, Prof. Dr. Yaşar KONDAKÇI Dean Graduate School of Social Sciences Prof. Dr. Oktay TANRISEVER Head of Department International Relations Prof. Dr. Meliha BENLİ ALTUNIŞIK Supervisor International Relations Examining Committee Members: Assist. Prof. Dr. Şerif Onur BAHÇECİK (Head of the Examining Committee) Middle East Technical University International Relations Prof. Dr. Meliha BENLİ ALTUNIŞIK (Supervisor) Middle East Technical University International Relations Assist. Prof. Dr. Derya GÖÇER AKDER Middle East Technical University Area Studies Assist. Prof. Dr. Gülriz ŞEN TOBB University of Economics and Technology Political Science and International Relations Assist. Prof. Dr. Bayram SİNKAYA Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University International Relations 3 4 PLAGIARISM I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this work Name, Last Name: ZEHRA FUNDA SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA Signature: iii ABSTRACT TURKEY’S FLUCTUATING RELATIONS WITH IRAN, 2002-2019: THE REGIONALIST PERSPECTIVE SAVAŞ YALÇINKAYA, Zehra Funda Ph.D., The Department of International Relations Supervisor: Prof. -
The Iranian Leadership's Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy
The Iranian Leadership’s Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy Israel 2009-2012 Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum Lt. Col. (ret.) Michael Segall Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs המרכז הירושלמי לענייני ציבור ומדינה )ע"ר( © 2012 Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs 13 Tel Hai Street, Jerusalem, Israel Tel. 972-2-5619281 Fax. 972-2-5619112 Email: [email protected] Website: www.jcpa.org ISBN: 978-965-218-106-0 Production Coordinator: Tommy Berzi Graphic Design: Studio Rami & Jaki - www.ramijaki.co.il An updated version of “What Iranian Leaders Really Say about Doing Away with Israel: A Refutation of the Campaign to Excuse Ahmadinejad’s Incitement to Genocide”(November 2008) 2 The Iranian Leadership’s Continuing Declarations of Intent to Destroy Israel Preface In 2008, the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs published an in-depth study of the Iranian leadership’s views on Israel and Jews.1 At the time, international attention had been focused on President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s October 2005 statement that Israel should be “wiped off the map.” A controversy arose at the time over whether he indeed made this remark or was mistranslated, as several academics and two members of the U.S. House of Representatives, Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) and Ron Paul (R-Texas), alleged. It was demonstrated that Ahmadinejad indeed called for the destruction of Israel and his words were not misrepresented. The previous study concluded with the observation by Michael Axworthy, who served as head of the Iran Section of Britain’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office from 1998 to 2000: “The formula had been used before by Khomeini and others, and had been translated by representatives of the Iranian regime as ‘wiped off the map.’ Some of the dispute that has arisen over what exactly Ahmadinejad meant by it has been rather bogus. -
The View from Tehran
The View from Tehran Iranian Leaders’ Perspectives on the International Framework Agreement Centre for the New Middle East Policy Paper No. 3 (2015) Tom Wilson The Henry Jackson Society June 2015 THE VIEW FROM TEHRAN Summary • In the wake of the release of the negotiated framework agreement, Iranian leaders have categorically denied the validity of that agreement as presented in the US State Department fact sheet outlining what was agreed by the sides. All of the most critical components of the framework agreement have subsequently been challenged in the statements of Iranian officials. In addition to disputing that the fact sheet represents what was agreed at the Lausanne talks, Iran’s most senior figures have also claimed that the framework agreement is not in any way binding upon Iran. • It is apparent from the statements of the Iranian leadership that the regime regards the negotiations on the nuclear issue as a tactical step for advancing its national objectives, rather than as an opportunity for rapprochement with America and the West. In the regime’s narrative, Iranian negotiators have succeeded in forcing the international community to acquiesce and accept Iran’s nuclear programme. Indeed, Iranian leaders have presented their country’s gains in the negotiations as both a form of “resistance” against America, and as a victory over the West. • The view of the nuclear negotiations expressed by Iranian leaders fits into a wider pattern of hostility to the West, with the advancement of the nuclear programme being a core element of Iranian ascendancy. Rather than moderating anti-American and anti-Western rhetoric during the negotiations period, several Iranian figures – including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei – have continued, and even intensified, their use of aggressively anti-American language. -
Iran's Human Rights Violators and Canada's Magnitsky Statutes
Briefing Book, January 2020 Iran’s Human Rights Violators and Canada’s Magnitsky Statutes A Canadian Primer The Canadian Coalition Against Terror (C-CAT) is a policy, research and advocacy group committed to developing innovative strategies in the battle against extremism and terrorism. C-CAT is comprised of terror victims, counterterrorism professionals, lawyers and others dedicated to building bridges between the private and public sectors in this effort. http://www.c-catcanada.org The contents of this briefing binder may be reproduced in whole or part with proper attribution to the original source(s) Dr. Ahmed Shaheed: (UN special rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief from 2011 to 2016) “Those who violate human rights in Iran are not fringe or renegade officials. Rather, they hold senior positions in the executive branch and the judiciary, where they continue to enjoy impunity. These officials control a vast infrastructure of repression that permeates the lives of Iranian citizens. …Defiance of these norms often comes at a terrible cost, with Iranians frequently facing unjust detention, torture, and even death.”1 Table of Contents 1. A Memo to the Reader---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1 2. Canada-Iran Overview---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------3 > Canada-Iran-Relations Fact Sheet > Iran’s International Ranking as a Human Rights Violator > Iran’s International Ranking for Corruption 3. The Magnitsky Act and Iran --------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 -
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC's ART of SURVIVAL
THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S ART of SURVIVAL: Neutralizing Domestic and Foreign Threats Saeid Golkar Policy Focus 125 | June 2013 THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S ART OF SURVIVAL: Neutralizing Domestic and Foreign Threats All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Published in 2013 in the United States of America by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036. Cover photo: Iranian soldiers shout anti-American slogans at a ceremony celebrating the 27th anniversary of the return from exile of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, February 2006. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) Contents About the Author v Acknowledgments vii Executive Summary 1 Introduction 3 1 | Neutralizing Threats from Below 4 2 | Neutralizing Threats from Above 9 3 | Neutralizing External Threats 14 4 | Conclusion 16 Notes 17 About the Author SAEID GOLKAR is a fellow at the Roberta Buffett Center for International and Comparative Studies at Northwest- ern University. Previously, he served as a postdoctoral fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University. His research interests include the politics of authoritarian regimes, state control, and Middle Eastern politics; his most recent analysis has appeared in Politics, Religion & Ideology, Armed Forces & Society, Journal of the Middle East and Africa, Digest of Middle East Studies, and Middle East Quar- terly, among other publications. -
Major General Mohammad Bagheri: Chief of Staff of Iran's Armed Forces
Major General Mohammad Bagheri: Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces November 2020 1 Table of Contents Early Life and the Iran-Iraq War ............................................................................................................... 3 Reorganization, Positioning, and Firouzabadi’s Shadow ........................................................................... 4 Promotion as Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces .................................................................................. 7 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................... 9 2 Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri is the chief of staff of Iran’s Armed Forces. The chief of staff is considered the highest ranking military officer in the Islamic Republic and is responsible for the coordination and supervision of Iran’s regular army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Bagheri ascended to this post through a storied family military history and quiet competence. His arrival at the helm of the Armed Forces General Staff (AFGS) also bolstered the IRGC’s role in Iran’s national command structure. Early Life and the Iran-Iraq War There are conflicting reports as to the year of Bagheri’s birth. Some sources, including the U.S. Treasury Department, say he was born in 1960 in Tehran. Others list the year as 1958. In addition to his military training, Bagheri received a conventional education as an engineering student and later earned a doctoral degree in political geography from Tarbiyat-e Modares University. Bagheri’s revolutionary activities date back to the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979. He was one of the students who attacked and seized the U.S. embassy, and Iranian media indicates that he deployed to the battlefield one month after the Iran-Iraq War began. There isn’t an extensive record of his service in these early years. -
A Neoclassical Realist Account
ABSTRACT The present monograph examines post-revolutionary Iran’s grand strategy by way of its adjustments at three key inection points. The rst spans the end of the Iran-Iraq war, the collapse of the bipolar order and the First Gulf War, along with internal structural changes following Ayatollah Khomeini’s death (1988-91). The second inection point encompasses the events of 11 September and the US invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq (2001-3). The third corresponds to the more recent Arab uprisings and the increasing internal and external pressures Iran faced over its nuclear program (2011-15). Given the epistemic challenges inherent in any reckoning of intentions or ends, as opposed to capabilities or means, a strict focus on the notion of ‘grand strategic adjustments’ instead permits an empirically-grounded COVER analysis of grand strategy as opposed to a more sweeping but potentially speculative reading. In examining these inection points, the author adopts Neoclassical Realism as a theoretical framework to structure the narrative, furnishing a systematic account linking systemic pressures and incentives (independent variable), via domestic lters (intervening variables), to nal outcomes or grand strategic adjustments (dependent variable). Given the prominence and predominance of ideas and the structure of rule in the Islamic Republic, the focus of domestic factors specically falls on the ‘ideational-constitutive’ (national identity, regime ideology, status aspirations and Grand strategic adjustments in state interests) and ‘institutional-competitive’ (elite interfactional bargaining) aspects. The author concludes that while Iran’s leaders have over the decades proven the capacity to both reconcile ends and means, and identify and respond to grand strategic threats and opportunities, they have ultimately yet to transcend the vicious post-revolutionary Iran: circle of self-manufactured challenges. -
Khamenei's Team of Rivals
KHAMENEI’S TEAM OF RIVALS: IRANIAN DECISION-MAKING, JUNE-JULY 2014 FREDERICK W. KAGAN JULY 2014 A REPORT BY THE CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT OF THE AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE KHAMENEI'S TEAM OF RIVALS JULY 2014 The author is deeply grateful for the hard work, dedication, skill, and support of Heather Malacaria, Mehrdad Moarefian, Marie Donovan, Amir Toumaj, Kimiya Haghighi, Zoe Newberg, and Christopher Rawlins. Their efforts made this report possible. Thanks are also due to Matthew McInnis for his advice, insight, and friendship. 1 www.criticalthreats.org KHAMENEI'S TEAM OF RIVALS JULY 2014 Executive Summary Iran’s national security decision-making process is not remotely as opaque as it sometimes appears. The recent crisis in Iraq and the nuclear negotiations in Geneva have opened a fascinating window into the efforts of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to bring rival groups within his government together behind a single set of policies. He appears to have been remarkably successful in mediating tensions between President Hassan Rouhani and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps senior leaders. They have come together, at least for the moment, behind a coherent set of strategies for dealing with a number of thorny problems in Iraq, the nuclear negotiations, and even economic reforms. It remains to be seen if these accommodations will survive the current crisis, of course, but the success of Khamenei’s efforts so far is impressive. The relationship between Rouhani and Khamenei is central to almost all Western analyses of Iran’s likely trajectory in foreign and security policy, and in the nuclear negotiations. Much of the hopefulness about the negotiations themselves has stemmed from the assessment that Rouhani is a determined reformer willing to buck the pressures of the “hard-liners,” by which is usually meant the IRGC and the clergy. -
The IRGC Command Network Formal Structures and Informal Influence
THE IRGC COMMAND NETWORK FORMAL STRUCTURES AND INFORMAL INFLUENCE A REPOrt BY AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT JULY 2013 WILL FULTON All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. ©2013 AEI’s Critical Threats Project Cover Image: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses IRGC commanders, Tehran, July 2011. Left to right: Mohammad Bagheri, Ali Saidi, Mohammad Ali Jafari, Qassem Suleimani, Mohammad Pakpour, Gholam Ali Rashid. Credit: leader.ir. The IRGC Command Network Formal Structures and Informal Influence Will Fulton July 2013 A report by AEI’s Critical Threats Project ABOUT US About the Author Will Fulton is an analyst, a Palantir fellow, and the IRGC Project team lead at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute. His research focuses on Iran’s IRGC and its global force projection network, including the Quds Force, Lebanese Hezbollah, and proxies, as well as Iranian domestic politics. Will has testified before Congress and briefed congressional staff, as well as members of the defense community. He received his B.A. in Political Science from the University of Wisconsin- Madison, and received his M.A. in Near Eastern Studies with a concentration in Persian and Iranian Studies from the University of Arizona. Acknowledgments The author would like to thank: Frederick W. Kagan for his patient guidance throughout the research, analysis, and writing process; Jessica Lewis for helping to frame the assessment in its early stages; Katherine Faley for her editorial expertise and support; Stephen Gailliot and Amir Toumaj for their invaluable research and analytical support; Maggie Obriwin for InDesign training, and; Marie Donovan and Mary Ella Simmons for their assistance. -
National-Security-Decision-Making-In-Iran Copy
National Security Decision-Making in Iran KEVJN LIM Open Briefing: The Civil Society Intelligence Agency London, United Kingdom This article reviews national security decision-making in the Iranian context by focusing on institutions, formal process and individuals. It specifically examines the Supreme Na- tional Security Council, which formalizes and embodies the decision-making process, as well as the Revolutionary Guards, which epitomize both the influence of institutions as well as the centrality of the agent-individual. Despite the plurality of formal insti- tutions and the existence of process, decision-making remains heavily centered on a small group of largely unelected individuals driven as much by ‘regime expediency’ as by mutual give-and-take along informal, microfactional lines. While he may have the last word, even Iran’s current Supreme Leader is constrained by these ideological, ne- gotiational and structural factors. These key figures are closely affiliated either with the politico-clerical founding kernel of the 1979 Revolution, or the powerful Revolutionary Guards—mainly the hardliners in any case—and are instrumental in determining the discursive boundaries of national security, the scope of which this article confines to defense and foreign policy. Finally, how all this coheres in the realm of strategy has as much to do with regime survival as with the art of reconciling ends and means. Introduction One of the challenges faced by policymakers with regards to the Islamic Republic of Iran is discerning the effective lines of authority in the context of national security decision- making.1 This ambiguity is nourished by the structure of power as currently exists, the multiple and mutually competing centers of influence, the preponderance of personal rela- tionships and patronage networks, and the deliberate opacity of political processes. -
1 Salvaging the “Axis of Resistance,” Preserving Strategic Depth
1 Salvaging the “Axis of Resistance,” Preserving Strategic Depth No. 1 November 2014 The Iranian Political Elite and Syria: Parallel Tracks with a Single Objective? Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi Salvaging the “Axis of Resistance,” Preserving Strategic Depth The Iranian Political Elite and Syria: Parallel Tracks with a Single Objective? Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi العدد - )اﻷول( 2 No. 1 November 2014 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are the author’s alone, and do not rep- resent those of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies. 3 4 No. 1 November 2014 Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Nasser Mohajer, Dr. Nader Hashemi, Dr. Muhammad Idrees Ahmad who read a preliminary draft of this paper and the research department at KFCRIS. Abstract This paper attempts to describe the public and private positions of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s political elite towards the Assad regime and Syrian civil war since the uprisings of 2011 and in light of more recent developments in the region such as the rise of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. It is divided into three parts and tries to describe the differ- ences, but also complementary efforts and division of labour within and between the Iranian state’s manifold institutions vis-à-vis the Syrian file. Part 1 assesses the diplomatic track focussing on the proposals and views of the Rouhani government and Foreign Ministry. Part 2 discusses a number of the Guardian Jurist Sayyid Ali Khamenei’s public statements, as well as those of his coterie of trusted advisers. Part 3 details the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria and its pivotal role in advising and training pro-Assad forces and how this process relates to the Islamic Republic’s broader regional strategy towards Iraq and the Le- vant, in particular. -
Iran's Proxy Wars
` AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAAAz.’[-p;u65egyuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuiop[;’]\ Iran’s Proxy Wars: Iraq, Lebanon, Palestinian Territories/Gaza, Syria, Yemen Updated May 2021 0 Since its inception in 1979, the Islamic Republic of Iran has aggressively sought to “export” its Islamic Revolution and remake the Middle East under its dominion. Iran’s primary method to empower itself has been to anchor loyal proxies in the region, which it has done most successfully with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and more recently in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Gaza. Where its proxies have not been able to take root, Iran has engaged in subversive activities to undermine its rivals and enhance its influence, as it has done in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Afghanistan. Iran’s quest for regional dominance has ultimately caused tremendous instability throughout the Middle East, enflaming sectarian divisions and triggering devastating wars that have left hundreds of thousands dead. Contents Country Reports ...................................................................................................................................... 2 Proxy Wars .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Iraq.................................................................................................................................................. 2 Lebanon .......................................................................................................................................