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THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC's ART of SURVIVAL THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S ART of SURVIVAL: Neutralizing Domestic and Foreign Threats Saeid Golkar Policy Focus 125 | June 2013 THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC’S ART OF SURVIVAL: Neutralizing Domestic and Foreign Threats All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Published in 2013 in the United States of America by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050, Washington, DC 20036. Cover photo: Iranian soldiers shout anti-American slogans at a ceremony celebrating the 27th anniversary of the return from exile of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, February 2006. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian) Contents About the Author v Acknowledgments vii Executive Summary 1 Introduction 3 1 | Neutralizing Threats from Below 4 2 | Neutralizing Threats from Above 9 3 | Neutralizing External Threats 14 4 | Conclusion 16 Notes 17 About the Author SAEID GOLKAR is a fellow at the Roberta Buffett Center for International and Comparative Studies at Northwest- ern University. Previously, he served as a postdoctoral fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) at Stanford University. His research interests include the politics of authoritarian regimes, state control, and Middle Eastern politics; his most recent analysis has appeared in Politics, Religion & Ideology, Armed Forces & Society, Journal of the Middle East and Africa, Digest of Middle East Studies, and Middle East Quar- terly, among other publications. n n n The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessarily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy v Acknowledgments THE AUTHOR IS GRATEFUL to Dr. Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, and Mehdi Khalaji of The Washing- ton Institute for their insightful comments and feedback, which led to significant improvements in previous drafts of this paper. Additional thanks are due to Professors Larry Diamond and Hendrik Spruyt, whose support made this research possible. He would also like to thank Institute director of publications Mary Kalbach Horan, senior editor George Lopez, and research assistant Guive Rosen for their editorial and transliteration assistance. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy vii What do you want to achieve or avoid? The answers to this question are objectives. How will you go about achieving your desired results? The answer to this you can call “strategy.” —william e. rothschild Executive Summary THE REEMERGENCE OF IRAN’S hardliners in reformists. Increased investment in the Basij and other 2005 after an apparent reformist victory years earlier social security apparatuses was a major factor in Teh- came as a shock to many observers, who were con- ran’s ability to dismantle the opposition Green Move- vinced that the Islamic Republic had been transform- ment in 2009 and establish a climate of fear in its wake. ing into a more democratic state. Yet the regime was Those who participate in these apparatuses become able to marginalize the reformists who came to power dependent on the regime and subject to indoctrina- following the 1997 presidential election, even as it tion, while those who remain “outsiders” face persis- dealt with external challenges such as the threat of U.S. tent threats, interference, and suppression, both on the attack following the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan. streets and online. It defused another crisis in 2009, gradually crushing To nullify threats from above (e.g., coup), the and controlling the opposition movement that erupted regime created a parallel military structure, the Islamic after the disputed presidential election. And when Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), alongside the Arab uprisings swept the region beginning in 2011, regular military. It then solidified its control over this toppling several longstanding authoritarian regimes, organ through intense religious indoctrination (e.g., Tehran effectively controlled its population. No dem- dispatching clerics throughout the corps), pervasive onstrations have occurred in Iranian cities during this surveillance (e.g., embedding independent internal period, and the regime appears steadfast in the face of intelligence personnel within units), and economic co- significant regional change. optation. Today, the IRGC has extended its influence How has the Islamic Republic persisted in the face to every sector of Iran’s economy, well beyond that of of so many crises since 1997, including the ongoing the regular military. This gives IRGC personnel great impasse with the international community over the incentive to continue supporting the regime in order nuclear program? How has the regime countered to secure their privileges. threats to its power? Analyzing Tehran’s intricate To deal with external threats, the Islamic Repub- survival strategies sheds light on both questions. lic has expanded its presence throughout the world, Like similar regimes, it has used a combination of especially in the backyard of its perceived enemies. tactics and factors to neutralize threats, including The IRGC’s Qods Force is instrumental in this effort, the residual appeal of its revolutionary ideology and which aims to form a resistance axis that can challenge religious legitimacy, as well as more direct methods the United States and Israel while also deterring them like propaganda, restrictive social policies, perva- from attacking Iran. Ideological entreaties and oil- sive surveillance, calibrated violence, coup-proofing, funded economic incentives are key to recruiting sup- and co-optation.1 porters abroad, whether individually or in the form of To deal with threats from below (e.g., revolu- large-scale proxies such as Hezbollah. tion), the regime has primarily relied on the Basij, a Despite the success of this approach thus far, mass administrative network of social, professional, the regime’s explicit attempts to disrupt the natural and militia groups established to mobilize loyalists, order of Iranian society could endanger the regime’s demobilize independent movements, and marginalize long-term survival. The character of the populace has The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1 Saeid Golkar The Islamic Republic’s Art of Survival changed dramatically over the years as increasing num- In this climate, the regime will have to choose bers of educated youths thwart government suppres- between accepting the ongoing social changes or brac- sion by gaining access to information and communica- ing itself for another uprising. Although the probabil- tion technologies. In addition, high unemployment, ity and timing of such an uprising are impossible to inflation, mismanagement, and pervasive political and know with certainty, many scholars believe riots are economic corruption have eroded the Islamic Repub- likely if Tehran does not begin implementing major lic’s legitimacy and produced deep popular discontent. reforms in the near future. 2 Policy Focus 125 Introduction DESPITE FACING NUMEROUS crises over the strategies focus on controlling the political elite or past fifteen years, the Iranian regime has shown a sur- the masses, while others have been developed to nul- prisingly potent ability to keep its opponents in check lify outside threats. Different regimes use different and remain in power. The past four years alone have “survival tool boxes” depending on their nature and seen mass demonstrations against a disputed election, goals. For example, authoritarian regimes rely more unprecedented international sanctions, and region- on repression than quasi-democratic regimes. And wide Arab uprisings, but none of these developments some autocratic governments use different tools than has seriously shaken the regime’s grip at home. To others—states like Syria use mass repression, intimi- understand how Tehran has accomplished this feat, dation, and organized violence, while Arab kingdoms one must look at the various approaches it takes to in the Persian Gulf rely mainly on buying the popu- dealing with threats. lation’s loyalty.5 Within the wide body of scholarship on autocratic Likewise, Iran has employed a number of different governments, some observers argue that rulers are most strategies against its opponents. The following chapters concerned about neutralizing threats, not just main- describe how the Islamic Republic has thwarted threats taining power.2 Such threats can come from inside the from below (revolution), threats from above (coup), state, outside the state, or both, and they may or may and external threats (foreign intervention). Although not involve violence.3 Generally, they take three forms: many of these strategies have been evident since the threats from top regime officials (e.g., a military coup), regime’s establishment, this study focuses on methods threats from popular uprisings, and threats from out- used since the silent popular uprising that brought side the state, such as foreign intervention.4 reformists to power in 1997. The conclusion discusses To neutralize these threats, states tend to create whether this approach—however effective it may have institutions that can carry out a variety of strategies, been thus far—is sustainable
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