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The Future of Iran's Security Policy

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The Future of Iran's Security Policy The Future of Iran’s Security Policy INSIDE TEHRAN’S STRATEGIC THINKING J. Matthew McInnis MAY 2017 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE The Future of Iran’s Security Policy INSIDE TEHRAN’S STRATEGIC THINKING J. Matthew McInnis MAY 2017 AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE © 2017 by the American Enterprise Institute. All rights reserved. The American Enterprise Institute (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional posi- tions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author(s). Contents Acknowledgments .............................................................................................................................................................. v Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................................... 1 SECTION I: Iran’s Strategic Thinking: Origins and Evolution .............................................................................. 3 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................... 4 Consensual Decision-Making ..................................................................................................................................... 11 Evolving Threat Perceptions in Post-1979 Iran...................................................................................................... 17 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................................... 23 Notes ................................................................................................................................................................................ 25 SECTION II: Iran at War: Understanding Why and How Tehran Uses Military Force ................................. 29 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 30 Crisis Simulation: Collapse of the Iran Nuclear Deal ........................................................................................... 31 Historical Patterns: Iran in Conflict ......................................................................................................................... 40 Escalation and De-Escalation in Conflict ................................................................................................................ 53 Toward a Model of Iran at War ................................................................................................................................. 70 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................... 75 Notes .............................................................................................................................................................................. 77 SECTION III: Iranian Concepts of Warfare: Understanding Tehran’s Evolving Military Doctrines ........ 87 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................. 88 Strategy and Doctrine Formation ............................................................................................................................ 89 Historical and Ideological Influences on IRI Doctrine ......................................................................................... 95 Key Characteristics of IRI Doctrine ....................................................................................................................... 100 A Model of IRI Doctrine ........................................................................................................................................... 102 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................. 106 Notes ............................................................................................................................................................................... 111 SECTION IV: Building the Iranian Military: Understanding Tehran’s Defense Acquisition and Research and Development Decision-Making ............................................................................................. 115 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................. 116 Understanding the Iranian Military Budget .......................................................................................................... 117 Understanding Iran’s Defense Industrial Base and Acquisition ....................................................................... 125 Toward a Model of IRI Acquisition and Research and Development Decision-Making .............................. 130 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................................... 135 Notes ...............................................................................................................................................................................137 Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................................ 143 About the Author ............................................................................................................................................................ 146 iii Acknowledgments would like to thank Tara Beeny for all her assis- For their diligent research and translation efforts, I tance and support in crafting this monograph thanks are also due to Diana Timmerman, Mehrdad and John Spacapan for bringing it into the home Moarefian, Jordan Olmstead, Farzana Fayeq, Neakzaad stretch. I am very appreciative to Ashton Gilmore Horrait, Mitra Namiranian, and Rebecca Asch, all of of Defense Group International’s Center for Intel- whom made valuable additions to the final product. ligence Research Analysis for his contributions Gratitude is due to Malcolm Byrne and the staff of the throughout this project, especially authoring the National Security Archive at George Washington Uni- findings on Iran’s emerging cyber warfare doctrines. versity for assistance with primary research materials. I am also deeply grateful for the extensive transla- I am indebted to Frederick Kagan for his advice and tion and economic analyses efforts Daniel Schnur support, in particular for ensuring effective execution provided, which were crucial for this study’s budget- of the crisis simulation, as well as to Paul Bucala, Marie ary analyses. Donovan, Caitlin Pendleton, and the rest of AEI’s Crit- I would like to express a special appreciation to ical Threats Project team for repeatedly granting their Jim Mattis, who provided a thoughtful critique of the insights and time. My final thanks to Sarah Crain and Iran at War section during his tenure as the Davies Rachel Jelinek for their meticulous editing and to Family Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Claude Aubert and other members of AEI’s design Institution. team for their thoughtful and creative support. v Introduction hen the Syrian opposition stronghold of Aleppo would be essential to contain escalation, blunt Iran’s Wfell in late 2016, Iran was the central player in a offensive actions, and decisively achieve US objec- coalition that dropped barrel bombs on marketplaces, tives. Simply put, the US needs a better understand- targeted aid workers, besieged the city, and killed ing of how Iran fights and prepares for war. more than 31,000 civilians. The Islamic Republic of This monograph attempts to answer those ques- Iran’s (IRI) major role in the battle, which at one point tions. Rather than supplying definitive formulas or supported 25,000 affiliated troops and militias on the “playbooks” for Iranian behavior, which would be ground, was more significant than even the Syrian impossible from a US standpoint, this work pro- Army presence. But how and why is Iran willing and vides a series of analytic frameworks and tools for able to expend vast resources in Syria when opposi- policymakers to appropriately interpret the IRI’s tion forces do not directly threaten the Iranian home- decision-making. It draws on historical case stud- land? If Washington had better understood Tehran’s ies since the 1979 Islamic Revolution (focusing on capacity for expeditionary warfare and degree of com- the 1980–88 Iran-Iraq War, the US-Iran Tanker con- mitment to Damascus sooner, it would have gained flicts, the Iraq War from 2003 to 2011, and the ongoing the tools to craft much wiser policy in the conflict. Syrian civil war), a post-JCPOA failure crisis simu- Syria is just one example in which greater insight lation exercise, extensive analysis of senior Iranian into Iran’s security decision-making—how Tehran leadership statements and writings, military exercise approaches the use of force, deterrence, proportion- observation, and economic assessments. Particular
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