Figure 1 Estimated population of Scotland (2008-based), actual and projected, 1951-2033
6,000
5,000
4,000 Projected 1
3,000 Persons ('000s)
2,000
1,000
0 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023 2027 2031 Year 1 2008-based projection. Figure 2a Projected percentage change in population, (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033 (Map)
Percentage projected population change less than -10
-10 to less than 0 Shetland 0 to less than +10 +10 to less than +20 +20 and higher
Orkney Isles
Eilean Siar
Highland
Moray
Aberdeenshire Aberdeen City
Angus
Perth & Kinross Dundee City
Falkirk 1 2 City of East 7 West Edinburgh Lothian 4 3 Lothian 6 Midlothian 5 North Ayrshire South Lanarkshire East Scottish Borders Ayrshire 1. West Dunbartonshire South 2. East Dunbartonshire Ayrshire 3. North Lanarkshire 4. Glasgow City Dumfries 5. East Renfrewshire & Galloway 6. Renfrewshire 7. Inverclyde 8. Clackmannanshire
© Crown copyright 2010 All rights reserved General Register Office for Scotland License number: 10018879 2009 Figure 2b Projected percentage change (2008-based), council area, 2008 - 2033
40
30
20
10
0 Percentage change -10
-20
-30 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland Inverclyde Midlothian Eilean Siar SCOTLAND Dundee City East Lothian Argyll & Bute Glasgow City West Lothian Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire North Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Orkney Islands Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway West Dunbartonshire Projected percentage change in population, (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033 (Map)
Percentage projected population change less than -5 -5 to less than 0 Shetland 0 to less than +10 +10 to less than +12 +12 to less than +15 +15 and higher
Orkney
Western Isles
Grampian Highland
Tayside
Forth Valley Fife
Greater Glasgow Lothian & Clyde Lanarkshire Borders Ayrshire & Arran
Dumfries & Galloway
© Crown copyright 2010 All rights reserved General Register Office for Scotland. Licence number: 10018879 2009 Figure 3b Projected percentage change in population (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033 (Chart)
25
20
15
10
5 Percentage change 0
-5
-10 Fife Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Tayside Borders Shetland Highland Grampian Lanarkshire Forth Valley SCOTLAND Clyde Western Isles Ayrshire & Arran & Ayrshire Greater Glasgow & Dumfries & Galloway Dumfries & Galloway Figure 4a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), council area, 2008 - 2033
50
40
30
20
10
0
Percentage change -10
-20
-30
-40 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland Inverclyde Midlothian Eilean Siar Dundee City SCOTLAND East Lothian Argyll & Bute Glasgow City West Lothian Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire North Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Orkney Islands Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway West Dunbartonshire Figure 4b Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2008-based), by council area, 2008- 2033
40
30
20
10
0 Percentage change -10
-20
-30 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland Midlothian Inverclyde Eilean Siar SCOTLAND Dundee City East Lothian Argyll & Bute Glasgow City Renfrewshire West Lothian East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Orkney Islands Perth Kinross & Scottish Borders Scottish Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire East Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway & Dumfries West Dunbartonshire 1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 4c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age1 (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
70
60
50
40
30 Percentage change Percentage 20
10
0 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland Midlothian Inverclyde Eilean Siar Eilean SCOTLAND Dundee City East Lothian East Argyll & Bute Glasgow City West Lothian West Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Aberdeen City Aberdeen North Ayrshire North Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire South Orkney Islands Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Shetland Edinburgh, City of City Edinburgh, North Lanarkshire North South Lanarkshire South East Renfrewshire East Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire East Dumfries & Galloway & Dumfries West Dunbartonshire West 1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 4d Projected percentage change in population aged 75 and over (2008 based), by council area, 2008- 2033
160
140
120
100
80
60 Percentage change
40
20
0 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland Inverclyde Midlothian Eilean Siar Dundee City SCOTLAND East Lothian Argyll & Bute Glasgow City West Lothian Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire North Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Orkney Islands Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway West Dunbartonshire Figure 5a Projected percentage change in population aged 0-15 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
20
10
0
-10
Percentage change -20
-30
-40 Fife Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Borders Shetland Highland Galloway Grampian Dumfries & Lanarkshire Forth Valley SCOTLAND Clyde Western Isles Ayrshire & Arran & Ayrshire Greater Glasgow & Figure 5b Projected percentage change in population of working age1 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033 20
10
0
-10 Percentage change
-20
-30 Fife Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Tayside Borders Shetland Highland Galloway Grampian Dumfries & Dumfries Lanarkshire Forth Valley SCOTLAND Clyde Western Isles Ayrshire & Arran Greater Glasgow &
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 5c Projected percentage change in population of pensionable age1 (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
60
50
40
30
Percentage change 20
10
0 Fife Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Borders Shetland Highland Galloway Grampian Dumfries & Lanarkshire Forth Valley SCOTLAND & Clyde Western Isles Ayrshire & Arran & Ayrshire Greater Glasgow
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 5d Projected percentage change in population aged 75 and over (2008 based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
140
120
100
80
60 Percentage change 40
20
0 Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Borders Shetland Highland Galloway Grampian Dumfries & Lanarkshire Forth Valley SCOTLAND Clyde Western Isles Ayrshire & Arran Greater Glasgow & Figure 6a Age structure of council areas in 2008: children, working age, pensionable age 1 (%) (ranked by percentage of pensionable age) 100
80
60
40 Percentage population Percentage 20
0 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland East Inverclyde Galloway Midlothian West Eilean Siar Dumfries & Dundee City SCOTLAND East Lothian Argyll & Bute Glasgow City West Lothian Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire North Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Orkney Islands Dunbartonshire Dunbartonshire Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire Council area Children Working age Pensionable age
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 6b Projected age structure of council areas in 2033 (2008-based): children, working age, and pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
100
80
60
40 Percentage population 20
0 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland East Galloway Inverclyde Midlothian West Eilean Siar Dumfries & SCOTLAND Dundee City Dundee East Lothian Argyll & Bute Glasgow City Glasgow Renfrewshire West Lothian East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Orkney Islands Orkney Dunbartonshire Dunbartonshire Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of Edinburgh, City North Lanarkshire North South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire Council area Children Working age Pensionable age
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 7a Age structure of NHS board areas in 2008: children, working age, pensionable age 1 (%) (ranked by percentage of pensionable age)
100
80
60
40 Percentage population
20
0 Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Borders Borders Shetland Highland Galloway Grampian Dumfries & Dumfries Lanarkshire Forth Valley Forth SCOTLAND & Clyde Western Isles Western Ayrshire & Arran & Ayrshire Greater Glasgow Greater NHS board area
Children Working age Pensionable age
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 7b Projected age structure of NHS board areas in 2033 (2008-based): children, working age, pensionable age1 (%), (ranked by percentage of pensionable age) 100
80
60
40 Percentage population Percentage 20
0 Fife Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Arran Clyde Borders Highland Shetland Greater Ayrshire & Ayrshire Galloway Grampian Glasgow & Dumfries & Lanarkshire Forth Valley SCOTLAND Western Isles NHS board area
Children Working age Pensionable age
1Includes the change in women's state pension age from 60 to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the subsequent change of both male and female state pension age to 66 by 2026 Figure 8 Percentage difference between projected 2031 population using 2006-based and 2008-based projections, by council area 20
15
10
5
0 Percentage difference
-5
-10 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Highland Inverclyde Midlothian Eilean Siar SCOTLAND Dundee City East Lothian Argyll & Bute Glasgow City West Lothian Renfrewshire East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire North Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Orkney Islands Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Shetland Islands Edinburgh, City of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway West Dunbartonshire Figure 9 Percentage difference between 2006-based and 2008-based population projections in 2031, by NHS board area 10
8
6
4
2
Percentage difference 0
-2
-4 Fife Orkney Lothian Tayside Borders Borders Highland Shetland Galloway Grampian Grampian Dumfries & Lanarkshire Forth Valley SCOTLAND & Clyde Western Isles Western Ayrshire & Arran Greater Glasgow Greater Figure 10 a Projected percentage change in population under low migration, principal and high migration projections (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
Inverclyde Inverclyde Inverclyde
East East East Dunbartonshire Dunbartonshire Dunbartonshire
West West Shetland Islands Dunbartonshire Dunbartonshire
Dundee City Shetland Islands Renfrewshire
Argyll & Bute Argyll & Bute East Renfrewshire
West Renfrewshire North Ayrshire Dunbartonshire
Renfrewshire Dundee City Argyll & Bute
Eilean Siar North Ayrshire Dundee City
North Ayrshire Eilean Siar Shetland Islands
East Renfrewshire East Renfrewshire South Ayrshire
Aberdeen City South Ayrshire Eilean Siar
Dumfries & Glasgow City East Ayrshire Galloway
Dumfries & Dumfries & East Ayrshire Galloway Galloway
South Ayrshire Glasgow City North Lanarkshire
East Ayrshire Moray Midlothian
Moray North Lanarkshire Glasgow City
Midlothian Midlothian Aberdeen City Council area Council area Council area Council North Lanarkshire Aberdeen City Moray
Stirling Stirling South Lanarkshire
SCOTLAND SCOTLAND Orkney Islands
Orkney Islands Angus SCOTLAND
Fife South Lanarkshire Angus
Angus Fife Stirling
South Lanarkshire Orkney Islands Fife
Edinburgh, City of Falkirk Falkirk
Scottish Borders Scottish Borders Scottish Borders
Falkirk Edinburgh, City of Highland
Highland Highland Edinburgh, City of
Aberdeenshire Aberdeenshire West Lothian
West Lothian West Lothian Clackmannanshire
Clackmannanshire Clackmannanshire Aberdeenshire
Perth & Kinross Perth & Kinross Perth & Kinross
East Lothian East Lothian East Lothian
-30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Percentage change Percentage change Percentage change
Low migration Principal High migration FigureFigure 10 b Projected percentage change in population under low migration, principal and high migration projections (2008-based), by NHS board area, 2008-2033
Shetland Shetland Shetland
Western Isles Western Isles Ayrshire & Arran
Greater Glasgow Greater Glasgow Greater Glasgow & Clyde & Clyde & Clyde
Dumfries & Ayrshire & Arran Western Isles Galloway
Dumfries & Dumfries & Ayrshire & Arran Galloway Galloway
SCOTLAND Lanarkshire Lanarkshire
Lanarkshire SCOTLAND Orkney
Orkney Tayside SCOTLAND NHS board area NHS board NHS board area NHS board NHS board area NHS board Grampian Fife Fife
Fife Highland Tayside
Tayside Orkney Highland
Highland Grampian Forth Valley
Borders Forth Valley Grampian
Forth Valley Borders Borders
Lothian Lothian Lothian
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Percentage change Percentage change Percentage change
Low migration Principal High migration Figure 11 Projected percentage change in births (2008-based), by council area, 2008-2033
40
30
20
10 change
0
-10
Percentage -20
-30
-40
-50 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Orkney Highland Shetland Midlothian Inverclyde Eilean Siar SCOTLAND Dundee City East Lothian Argyll & Bute Argyll Renfrewshire Glasgow City West Lothian East Ayrshire East Aberdeen City North Ayrshire Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Perth & Kinross Scottish Borders Edinburgh, city of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway Dumfries West Dunbartonshire Council area Figure 12 Migration to and from outwith Scotland and to and from other council areas within Scotland, 2003-2008 15
10
5 per 100 population in 2008
0
-5
Net migration (2003-2008) Net migration (2003-2008) -10 Fife Moray Angus Falkirk Stirling Orkney Highland Shetland Midlothian Inverclyde Eilean Siar Dundee City East Lothian Argyll & Bute Argyll Renfrewshire Glasgow City West Lothian East Ayrshire Aberdeen City North Ayrshire Aberdeenshire South Ayrshire Perth & Kinross Perth Scottish Borders Edinburgh, city of North Lanarkshire South Lanarkshire East Renfrewshire Clackmannanshire East Dunbartonshire Dumfries & Galloway Dumfries West Dunbartonshire Council area
Outwith Scotland Within Scotland