2013 REPORT HARVARD’S PROGRAM ON EDUCATION POLICY AND GOVERNANCE A Bridge to the Future

EN Program on Education Policy and Governance (PEPG) From the Director Director Faculty Affiliates Matthew M. Chingos Paul E. Peterson Roland Fryer Fellow, Governance Studies, Henry Lee Shattuck Professor of Government Professor of Economics, Brown Center on Education Policy, Brookings Institution Harvard University Nathan Glazer Editor-in-Chief, Education Next Jay P. Greene Professor Emeritus of Education and Sociology, Harvard University Department Head and 21st Century Chair in Education Reform, University of Arkansas Deputy Director Joshua Goodman Martin R. West Eric A. Hanushek The Harvard Program on Education Policy and Assistant Professor of Public Policy, Governance (PEPG) has acted as a bridge to the educational Assistant Professor of Education Paul and Jean Hanna Senior Fellow, Harvard Graduate School of Education Hoover Institution future by holding true to its research and training mission, Christopher Jencks Michael Henderson producing influential reports and involving students in its Professor of Social Policy, Harvard University Advisory Committee Assistant Professor, University of Mississippi research, conferences and other activities. PEPG is entering Richard Light Jeb Bush (Chair) Frederick M. Hess its 17th year and celebrating the 13th year of its widely read Professor of Education, Harvard University Foundation for Excellence in Education Resident Scholar and Director of Education quarterly journal Education Next. Through careful research, PEPG scholars Cory Booker Donald Rubin Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute Through careful research, PEPG scholars are clarifying Professor of Statistics, Harvard University are clarifying the school reform agenda Mayor, Newark, NJ William G. Howell the school reform agenda—on topics that range from middle Cesar Conde Sydney Stein Professor of American Politics, schools and social promotion to international competitiveness —on topics that range from middle schools Univision Networks Education Next Harris School, University of Chicago Frederick M. Hess and digital learning. For example, PEPG’s widely cited Bruce Douglas Martina Viarengo and social promotion to international Executive Editor report, Achievement Growth, found that student achievement Harvard Development Company Assistant Professor of Economics Michael Horn Graduate Institute of International and gains in the U.S. fail to close the international achievement Timothy Draper competitiveness and digital learning. Executive Editor Development Studies of Geneva gap—the U.S. ranked 25th out of 49 countries in student Draper Fisher Jurvetson Marci Kanstoroom Ludger Woessmann test-score gains over a 14-year period. A separate report, The Peter Flanigan Executive Editor Professor of Economics of Education, Effects of School Vouchers on College Enrollment, found college the global debt crisis and its effects on U.S. and European UBS Securities, LLC Michael J. Petrilli University of Munich enrollment increases of 24 percent for African Americans who federalist-based governments. PEPG research and articles C. Boyden Gray Executive Editor Human Capital and Innovation Dept. Head, attended a private school with the help of a voucher. from its journal, Education Next have been widely cited by Gray & Schmitz, LLP Ifo Institute for Economic Research Martin R. West Digital learning was the focus of a conference hosted at scholars and bloggers alike, used for teaching in colleges and Phil Handy Executive Editor Patrick J. Wolf the Hoover Institution of Stanford University in February universities around the country and across the oceans, quoted Winter Park Capital Company Professor and Endowed Chair in School Choice, Carol Peterson Roger Hertog Department of Education Reform, 2012, at which former governor Bob Wise of West Virginia by elected officials, and reported in major media outlets. Managing Editor Alliance Capital Management University of Arkansas unveiled basic principles he and his colleagues offered as These are a few of the activities highlighted in the pages Kathryn Ciffolillo Al Hubbard a guide to the online learning community. In July 2012, that follow. We welcome your comments and suggestions. Manuscript Editor E&A Industries Project Funders and Contributors PEPG hosted an international conference on the achievement Gisèle Huff Bodman Foundation growth in the U.S. and in countries abroad. The keynote Jaquelin Hume Foundation Staff speech was delivered by Maureen McLaughlin, Senior Advisor Antonio M. Wendland Boone Family Foundation John F. Kirtley to the Secretary and Director of International Affairs at the Associate Director Lynde & Harry Bradley Foundation KLH Capital, L.P. U.S. Department of Education. August brought scholars, Nick Tavares Educate Texas Joel L. Klein Research, Web & Data Manager again from both within the U.S. and Europe, to discuss —Paul E. Peterson News Corporation Thomas B. Fordham Foundation Maura R. Roche Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Steve Klinsky Staff Assistant New Mountain Capital, LLC Hoover Institution Deborah McGriff Research Affiliates Jaquelin Hume Foundation NewSchools Christopher Berry Individual Donor Gifts Inside James Piereson Associate Professor, Harris School, Kern Family Foundation William E. Simon Foundation University of Chicago ...... Kovner Foundation New Digital Learning Policy Conference Hosted by PEPG 2 Michael Podgursky David E. Campbell University of Missouri Professor of Political Science, Searle Freedom Trust School Vouchers Help African Americans Go to College ...... 4 Jerry Rappaport University of Notre Dame William E. Simon Foundation Phyllis and Jerome Lyle Rappaport Third Graders Benefit from Grade Retention...... 6 Rajashri Chakrabarti Thomas W. Smith Foundation Foundation Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Nina S. Rees Smith-Richardson Foundation The Middle School Plunge...... 7

National Alliance for Public Charter Schools Taubman Center on State and Local Government,

Harvard Kennedy School of Government Education Next After 12 Years...... 8 Gerard Robinson gh Former Commissioner of Education, The Walton Family Foundation Why Can’t American Students Compete with the Rest of the World? ...... 10 ...... Program on Education Policy and Governance (PEPG) International Conferences 12 Harvard Kennedy School, Room T-304, 79 John F. Kennedy Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 Sixth Annual Public Opinion Survey...... 14 Phone: (617) 495-7976, Fax: (617) 496-4428 E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.hks.harvard.edu/pepg http://www.educationnext.org Federalism and the Global Debt Crisis...... 16 PEPG Fellows ...... Cover photos: Top: Roberto Rodriguez, Special Assistant to President Obama on Education; Middle: Mona Mourshed, McKinsey Company; Bottom left: Governor Scott Walker, Wisconsin 17 and Martin R. West, Harvard Graduate School of Education; Bottom center: Julie Young, Florida Virtual School; Bottom right: Principal Shouqian Tang, Shanghai High School hks.harvard.edu/pepg 1 New Digital Learning Policy Conference Hosted by PEPG Education experts from districts, charter schools, legislatures, education companies, foundations, think tanks, and academia gathered at the Hoover Institution on the campus of Stanford University to discuss some of the thornier policy questions By Michael Horn, Executive Editor, Education Next

As digital learning opportunities are spreading, the hype around of one-size-fits-all legislation for all states to solve these their potential to create a student-centric public education system issues may be more of a pipe dream than many have is expanding at just as rapid a pace. Many worry, however, that hoped, which could stymie efforts, like those of the if the proper policies and regulations are not in place to focus Alliance for Excellent Education, led by Governor Wise, them around student learning outcomes and growth, then digital to create model digital-learning legislation to help states learning may fail to deliver on its promise. In early February, modernize their education systems. If this year’s state education experts from districts, charter schools, legislatures, legislative sessions are any indication, the confusion at the education companies, foundations, think tanks, and academia conference is likely to pale in comparison to that around gathered at the Hoover Institution on the campus of Stanford the nation. That may also be a good thing, as each state University to discuss some of the thornier policy questions tries different approaches and innovations so that the relating to the growth of digital learning in the country’s K–12 country can learn what approaches work best. education system. With the 10 Elements of High Funding follows the student Quality Digital Learning, created in When the state of Florida moved 2010 by the Digital Learning Council, the funding for its Florida co-chaired by former governors Jeb Bush Virtual School (FLVS) away and Bob Wise, providing the starting from a year-to-year line-item point for the conversation, participants appropriation to a per-pupil delved into several areas likely to create funding model in 2003, partial the most challenges from a policy funding began following students perspective to the implementation of to the FLVS course of their choice. the following framework: Enrollments in FLVS soared. It now serves more than 148,000 1. Funding follows the student students. In addition, funding 2. Choice among multiple providers: does not just follow students to Report of Digital Learning Council, co-chaired by Governors Bush and Wise, receives close scrutiny from participants at the PEPG Reducing costs without lowering quality the online course; it also creates conference held at the Hoover Institution. 3. Fund achievement, not attendance Michael Horn (right) leads conference discussion an accountability mechanism, as FLVS 4. F ederal, state and local roles in education together with James H. Shelton III, Assistant receives funding only when a student build solid businesses selling to districts directly. If online learning is Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Education, successfully passes the course. Since then, growing organically through this path, then why, they asked, should and former governor Bob Wise, West Virginia. What emerged from the conversations many—including the majority of people at there be a policy that allowed funding to follow the student? was at times confusing and also revealing. the conference—have accepted that having There were many answers to these questions. One was First, the conversations were noteworthy funding follow students down to the course based on equity: ensuring that all students, especially those in for the participants’ inability to keep the level is a critical state policy for digital urban and small rural districts, would have access to learning The policy road ahead strands separate from each other. Each learning to realize its promise. opportunities. For example, roughly 1 million high-school of the policy questions has significant But not everyone at the conference was students in California—about 50 percent of the state’s high- may be more difficult than and complicated interdependencies onboard. A few could not understand why school student population—attend schools where they don’t many digital learning with the other elements. Second, this was desirable, as, in their view, it would have access to the full slate of courses required for entrance to among a group noteworthy for its create a fractured learning experience, when University of California and California State University schools. advocates assume. The ability broad agreement around the potential a school should be responsible for all learning Without the ability for funding to follow students so they can of technology to transform America’s so as to create a coherent and integrated take the online courses that they need to gain admission to these of one-size-fits-all legislation education system into a student-centric learning experience. As one participant said, schools, there is no sign of another fix coming anytime soon, for all states to solve this one able to personalize affordably for “What about the student who takes 13 particularly given the state’s budget woes and the discrepancies different student needs was a stunning different courses from 13 different providers? of funding levels from district to district, which affects the may be more of a pipe dream amount of disagreement over the proper Utah State Senator Howard Stephenson notes Does that actually add up to a valuable high- willingness of online course providers to partner with some than many have hoped. paths forward. The implications are comments made by Gisèle Huff (center), the Jaquelin school education equal to the sum of the districts. Participants also suggested that in states where funding striking. The policy road ahead may Hume Foundation, together with Amy Anderson, individual courses a student takes?” could follow the student down to the course level, districts had be more difficult than many digital Assistant Commissioner, Colorado Department In addition, some noted that private far more incentive to innovate and create partnerships with learning advocates assume. The ability of Education. providers of online courses had been able to various providers to bolster their offerings.

2 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 3 School Vouchers Help African Americans Go to College

A Generation of School-Voucher Success By Matthew M. Chingos and Paul E. Peterson

We have for the first time tracked the impact of a voucher program all the way from kindergarten (in 1997) to college enrollment (in 2011). Our study compared students who won a voucher lottery with students who didn’t—the only difference between the groups was the luck of the draw, the gold standard in research design. The study shows that an African American student who was able to use a voucher to attend a private school was 24 percent more likely to enroll in college than an African American student who didn’t win a voucher lottery. The voucher program took place in New York City. Its impetus came in 1996, when Archbishop The study compared students who won a voucher lottery with students who didn’t— John J. O’Connor invited New York City schools the only difference between the groups was the luck of the draw, the gold standard in chancellor Rudy Crew to “send the city’s most research design. troubled public school students to Catholic schools.” When Mayor Rudolph Giuliani attempted to fund the initiative to college, we linked student identifying characteristics to out of city funds, he encountered strong opposition from those college enrollment data available from the National Student who saw it as a violation of the First Amendment’s establishment Clearinghouse, which collects that information from institutions clause (an argument subsequently rejected by the Supreme Court of higher education attended by 96 percent of all U.S. students. in other cases). As the controversy raged, a group of private Although our study identified no significant impact on college philanthropists—including prominent Wall Street figures Bruce enrollments among Hispanic students, the impact on African Kovner, Roger Hertog and Peter American students was large. Not only were part-time and full-time Matthew M. Chingos Flanigan—created the New York School college enrollment together up 24 percent, but full-time enrollment Choice Scholarships Foundation. increased 31 percent and attendance at selective colleges (enrolling The foundation offered three-year students with average SAT scores of 1100 or higher) more than scholarships—that is, vouchers—worth doubled, to 8 percent from 3 percent. up to $1,400 annually (in 1998 dollars) These impacts are especially striking given the modest costs of to approximately 1,000 low-income the intervention: only $4,200 per pupil over a three-year period. families with children of elementary- This implies that the government would actually save money if it school age. A recipient could attend introduced a similar voucher program, as private-school costs are Scholarship winners proudly display their certificates at a1997 gathering in Central Park in New York City. any of the hundreds of private schools, lower than public-school costs. religious or secular, in New York City. The difference in the effects for African American and Hispanic The city’s largest provider of private students is probably due to the greater educational challenges faced schooling was the Catholic archdiocese, by the African Americans. Only 36 percent of them went to college PEPG postdoctoral fellow, which reported average tuition at if they didn’t receive a voucher, compared to 45 percent of the An African American student 2011–2012; PEPG research the time of $1,728 per year. Total Hispanic students. fellow, 2006–2011; Fellow, expenditures at these schools, from all “I have an 8-year-old in third grade, and she’s doing great. It’s who was able to use a voucher to attend a private school Brookings Institution. revenue sources, came to $2,400 per miraculous the way she has changed,” said a voucher-winning was 24 percent more likely to enroll in college pupil (compared to total costs of more African American mother at a focus group session in 1999. The than $5,000 per pupil in the public cause of the change was clear. It came from the power of parental than an African American student who didn’t win schools). More than 20,000 applicants choice in education. It wasn’t “miraculous”—unless you happen to participated in the lottery. be one of the parents directly involved. a voucher lottery. Of the 2,666 students in the original study, necessary information was available for more than 99 percent. To see Excerpted from op-ed essay that appeared in the Wall Street Journal, whether those who won the lottery were more likely to go August 23, 2012.

4 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 5 Reforming the Early Years of Schooling Third Graders Benefit from Grade Retention By Martin R. West and Guido Schwerdt Achievement Tumbles When Young Sudents Change Schools By Martin R. West and Guido Schwerdt

(Figure 1) Middle-School Plunge research Students who move to middle schools for grade 6 or grade 7 lose ground in both reading and math compared to their peers who attend K‒8 schools.

The Middle School In 2010, the Charlotte-Mecklenburg (North Carolina) school district shut- tered four of its eight middle schools, opting to serve students in elemen- lorida’s policy of retaining third graders based on tary schools spanning F Achievement P lungewhen state standardized test scores has a positive long-term kindergarten through tumbles grade 8. In so doing, it fol- young students change schools impact on those students, according to the study The lowed in the footsteps of urban school districts such as Baltimore, districts, public school students make two school Effects of Test-based Retention on Student Outcomes over transitions, entering a middle school in grade 6 or Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and New 7 and a high school in grade 9. This pattern reflects Time, by Martin R. West and Guido Schwerdt. York City, all of which have in the the influence of enrollment pressures and peda- past decade expanded their reliance on gogical theories that, over the past half century, all Retention only works when the students who are but eliminated the K–8 school from the American the once ubiquitous K–8 model. education landscape. A small fraction of students held back are provided with extra instruction and the do attend public schools encompassing grades K–8, Not all school systems are moving in that direc- 6–12, or even K–12, however. We exploit this varia- tion. In Cambridge, Massachusetts, a district with tion by comparing the achievement trajectories of money to fund those programs, according to Harvard surprisingly low student performance given the sub- Florida students entering a middle school or a high stantial per-pupil resources at its command, the school to those of their peers who do not make University researcher Martin R. West. school committee has decided to try to boost student those transitions. achievement by abandoning its K–8 model in favor Our study extends research conducted in New Retained students outperform classmates who of having separate middle schools that serve grades York City (see “Stuck in the Middle,” research, Fall 6 through 8 (though, in an unusual twist, each of 2010), in which Jonah Rockoff and Benjamin Lock- barely made the cut on test scores. Those gains the latter will be housed in the same facility as an wood found that entering a middle school causes a elementary school). sharp drop in student achievement relative to the eventually level off in subsequent years. In short, policymakers nationwide continue to performance of those remaining in K–8 schools. It wrestle with a basic question: At what grade level is hard to know whether one can generalize from The authors argue that the advantage of holding should students move to a new school? In the most results from the nation’s largest city (and school dis- common grade configuration in American school trict), however, especially when it employs a complex students back is that it catches students who would

likely have to be retained later. The intervention by MARTIN R. WEST and GUIDO SCHWERDT

Note: Based on Florida students enrolled in grade 3 from 2001-2004 who completed the allows schools to boost state test in both math and reading in each of the subsequent five years. SOURCE: Authors’ calculations those students’ math and ILLUSTRATION / MICHAEL WARAKSA Guido Schwerdt reading skills on par with educationnext.org SPRING 2012 / EDUCATION NEXT 63 their classmates. Florida students retained in third grade are “The Middle School Plunge” appeared in the Spring 2012 issue of Education Next. less likely to be retained again later. “Third-grade retention A PEPG study of statewide data from all Florida public in Florida has no impact on schools finds that moving to a middle school in grade 6 or The drops in achievement we observe student absences or special 7 causes a substantial drop in student test scores relative to for students entering middle schools amount education classifications,” those of students who remain in K–8 schools, and increases Schwerdt and West write, the likelihood of their dropping out of high school. to between 3.5 and 7 months of expected “but it sharply reduces Data on state math and reading test scores for all PEPG Postdoctoral fellow, learning over the 10-month school year. 2010–2011; Economist, the probability that the Florida students attending public schools in grades 3 to 10 Ifo Institute, Munich. student will be retained in PEPG deputy director Martin R. West discusses his research on grade retention and from the 2000–01 through 2008–09 years were analyzed. a subsequent grade. social promotion. The researchers also conducted a test-score analysis “It also suggests that the separately for schools in Miami-Dade County, which is Florida’s and following the transition to middle school; there are only costs associated with policies largest district (345,000 students) and offers a wide range of grade insignificant differences in effects for students of different that increase retention rates in configurations up through grade 8. They find that “the negative ethnicities in reading. the early grades are less than Retention works when the students effects of entering a middle school for grade 6 or grade 7 are, if Principal surveys indicate that aspects of school climate, such is typically assumed because who are held back are anything, even more pronounced in Miami-Dade County than as safety and order, are worse in Florida middle schools than in many of them would have received an additional year they are statewide.” K–8 schools. The authors surmise that students in grades 6–8 of schooling anyway as a result of being retained later in provided with extra instruction. The negative effects of entering a middle school are who remain in K–8 schools “may benefit from being among their educational careers.” somewhat smaller outside of urban districts, but they remain the oldest students in a school setting that includes very young Excerpted from an article published online by NPR (npr.org), substantial even in rural areas. Among student subgroups, students, perhaps because they have greater opportunity to take August 20, 2012. the study finds that black students suffer larger drops both at on leadership roles.”

6 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 7 Spring 2012 • $7.00 educationnext.org Summer 2012 • $7.00 educationnext.org Fall 2012 • $7.00 educationnext.org Winter 2013 • $7.00 educationnext.org

Education Next After 12 Years EducationA JOURNAL OF OPINION AND RESEARCH Next EducationA JOURNAL OF OPINION AND RESEARCH Next EducationA JOURNAL OF OPINION AND RESEARCH Next EducationA JOURNAL OF OPINION AND RESEARCH Next Exam Schools The Algebra Problem Great Cultivating America’s future leaders When and how should it be taught? Chester E. Finn • Jessica Hockett A Journal of Opinion and Research Kalena Cortes • Joshua Goodman • Takako Nomi pg 70 Teachers page 8 Jacob L. Vigdor pg 42 Life-long benefits for students RAJ CHETTY JOHN N. FRIEDMAN JONAH E. ROCKOFF page 62

Now entering its 13th year of publication, PEPG’s quarterly viewed climbed to journal, Education Next, a journal of opinion and research, continues more than 1,200,000. Equity Through to shape policy discussions and legislative initiatives. In early 2012, Recently, the School Choice it provided the first lay-friendly account of a major study by Raj website was made more Fund the child, Chetty and his colleagues that shows the large impact high-quality “mobile-friendly” so not the school pg 8 teachers can have on their students’ lifetime earnings. In November that information is Closing the Potential Gap pg 62 Crime and School choice pg 70 Debating the Common Core pg 48 What Time Should School Begin? pg 56 Is the U.S. Catching Up? pg 24 Charter Building Battles pg 50 2012 Poll of Teachers and the Public pg 8 Vouchers and Tax Credits pg 20 Obama’s Education Record pg 39 Political Challenges for Charters pg 24 Do Voucher Schools Discriminate? pg 16 Fighting for Reform pg 25 Transforming Teacher Education pg 42 Judging Teachers Fairly pg 34 Digital Learning and Traditional Schools pg 54 Gentrifying Schools pg 36 2012, it released the first careful study by Gregory Branch and displayed in roughly the his colleagues that measures the major impact that high-quality same way on the mobile principals can have on student performance. In addition, the journal site as it is on a personal provided extensive coverage of debates over teacher evaluations, computer. The display “reshapes” itself to fit smartphones, tablets, Education Next articles more frequently than ever before. (For teacher compensation, teacher pensions, and teacher organizations. mini-tablets, or whatever portable reading device people use. Even details, see accompanying figures.) The journal provided extensive before introducing this change, the increase in viewing from mobile Our Twitter site growth has also been dramatic. The number of Other provocative essays included: sites has shifted upward so that by late 2012 nearly 20 percent of followers has nearly tripled over the course of the past two years so coverage of debates over 1) A nationwide study of examination schools by Chester Finn its page views were by mobile users. That percentage is expected to that by the end of November 2012 more than 28,000 individuals and Jessica Hockett, who surveyed all public schools in the grow rapidly now that the site is well adapted to these devices. were following our tweets. Education Next’s Klout score, an indicator teacher evaluations, teacher United States that require high performance on an entrance Coverage in the higher-quality outlets within the of the extent to which people are using our site as a source of compensation, teacher pensions and examination before matriculation. (Exam schools serve a mainstream media also escalated in 2012, jumping from 4 information, climbed from 51 in 2011 to 79 in November 2012, diverse population; white students constitute less than half articles per issue of the journal in 2011 to 16 articles per placing it as high as fifth among the country’s top twitter sites teacher organizations. the total.) issue in 2012. Also, those who write blogs are covering covering education topics. 2) A comparison conducted by Jay Greene and colleagues of school performance in every U.S. school district with Education Next Twitter followers Average High-Quality Monthly Web Traffic (in thousands) schools internationally. (Many schools (in thousands) Print Media Per Issue thought to be of high quality turn out 16 to be mediocre when measured by 80 international standards.) 30 12 3) Josh Goodman showed that it’s a good 70 idea to require students to take algebra 8 twice if they do not do well the first time. 4) A report on the appropriate federal role 4 60 in education prepared by the Koret All visits Unique visitors Task Force at the Hoover Institution, 0 which recommended that the federal 20 50 ‘11 government provide parents with ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘12 information and encourage greater school Note: High-Quality Print Media defined as top 20 newspapers ranked 40 choice, but let local officials manage their by highest circulation and the top 25 magazines ranked by ad revenue. schools free of federal regulation. Average Blog Hits Per Issue 30 Just as the range and significance of 120 10 the topics Education Next is broadening, 20 its audience continues to grow. As the accompanying charts show, the numbers 80 coming to its website are increasing rapidly. 10 In the last two years, the number of unique visitors more than doubled. In the 40 0 twelve-month period ending on October 0 31, 2012, the site had more than 600,000 unique visitors, a 37 percent increase over 0 Aug ‘09 Dec ‘10 Dec ‘11 Nov ‘12 Dec-Feb ‘11 Jun-Aug ‘11 the preceding period. Total visits came to Dec ‘09 Dec-Feb ‘10 Mar-May ‘10 Jun-Aug ‘10 Mar-May ‘11 Sept-Nov ‘11 Dec-Feb ‘12 Mar-May ‘12 Jun-Aug ‘12Sept-Nov ‘12 ‘11 Sept-Nov ‘09 Sept-Nov ‘10 800,000, and the number of website pages ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘12

8 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 9 Why Can’t American Students Compete with the Rest of the World? Only 32% of U.S. Students Recent Gains Are Smaller Than Are Proficient in Math in 24 Other Countries By Eric A. Hanushek and Paul E. Peterson By Joel L. Klein, Former Schools Chancellor, New York City

As all schoolchildren know, water freezes at 32 degrees Just when you thought we’d reached a consensus on Fahrenheit. So maybe it is more than a mere coincidence the need to dramatically improve America’s schools, Achievement Growth: that 32 percent of U.S. public- and private-school students a chorus is emerging to suggest all is well. It’s hard to International and U.S. State Trends in Student Performance in the class of 2011 are deemed proficient in mathematics, overstate how dangerous such complacency is. Eric A. Hanushek • Paul E. Peterson • Ludger Woessmann placing the United States 32nd among the 65 political Only the top quarter of America’s K–12 students jurisdictions that participated in the latest international tests are performing on par with the average students administered by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation in Singapore, Hong Kong, Finland, Taiwan, and and Development (OECD). The United States ranks between South Korea. International comparisons of advanced Portugal and Italy and far behind South Korea, Finland, achievement in math are even more depressing: 16 Canada, and the Netherlands, to say nothing of the city of countries now produce at least twice as many advanced Shanghai, with its 75 percent proficiency rate. math students per capita as we do, an important We became aware of the predictor of how many engineers and scientists we’ll seriousness of the problem after have in the future driving economic growth—all this as Carlos X. Lastra-Anadón we equated, with the help of the U.S. continues to spend more on schools than many Ludger Woessmann and Carlos wealthy nations do as a share of GDP. Xabel Lastra-Anadón, the test To be sure, there’s been some progress. A new Harvard scores of the class of 2011 on an PEPG study (Achievement Growth: International and international test when this class U.S. State Trends in Student Performance) looks at the was in 10th grade, with its prior pace of improvement on international tests and confirms eighth-grade scores on the National the NAEP’s findings of modest gains by U.S. students Assessment of Educational Progress in 4th and 8th grade, which the complacency crowd no (NAEP), an official U.S. test that doubt will cheer. But digging deeper into the data, the both assesses performance of U.S. new study also shows that the pace of improvement in “Globally Challenged” identified the mediocre standing of U.S. students as Harvard’s Program on Education Policy and Governance & Education Next students and sets the standard the U.S. has been no better than the median rate for all Taubman Center for State and Local Government compared to those in other countries. Harvard Kennedy School for “proficiency.” 49 industrialized and developing countries during the PEPG research fellow, Linking these tests also decade that the researchers analyzed. We’re being lapped 2009–2013; Ph.D. allowed us to compare by countries we wouldn’t ordinarily think of as playing candidate, Harvard University, and government the performance of Only 7 percent of U.S. students perform at the in our league. The study shows that students in Latvia, and social policy program, students in each state Chile, and Brazil are improving at an annual rate nearly Harvard Kennedy School. with that of students advanced level in math, putting the country behind three times that of the U.S., and that students in Portugal, EN in other countries. The 25 other nations. Hong Kong, Germany, Poland, Liechtenstein, Slovenia, results are scary. Even Colombia, and Lithuania are moving ahead at twice the in Massachusetts, with rate of our students. Meanwhile, modest gains among Report prepared by Eric A. Hanushek, Hoover Institution; Paul E. Peterson, Harvard University; and Ludger Woessmann, University of Munich. its renowned collection of public and of Asian students in the United States (52 percent) who score at or U.S. eighth graders are only about two-thirds that of our private schools, students reach only the level attained by students in above the proficiency level. fourth graders, implying serious slippage in the middle the entire nations of Canada, Japan, and Switzerland. But the United States is not doing any better by its very years of schooling. The bottom line: slight improvements The percentage proficient in the state of New York (30 percent) best students than by the rest of them. Only 7 percent of U.S. from inadequate starting points while other countries is equivalent to that achieved by students in debt-ridden Portugal students perform at the advanced level in math, putting the advance faster is no reason for America to celebrate. Students in Latvia, and Spain. California, the home of highly skilled Silicon Valley, has country significantly behind 25 other nations. Forty-five percent The complacency crowd will ask why we should bother a math proficiency rate of 24 percent, the same as bankrupt Greece of the students in Shanghai are advanced in math, as are 20 with such an ambitious agenda. But take it from someone Chile, and Brazil are improving and just a notch above struggling Russia. percent in South Korea and Switzerland. Fifteen percent of who fought for eight years to improve our country’s at an annual rate Proficiency rates among African Americans and Hispanics are the students score at or above the advanced level in six other biggest urban school district and knows how much further very low (11 and 15 percent, respectively). But if one compares key countries: Japan, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, New we still have to go: resting on inadequate laurels is no way nearly three times that only the white students in the U.S. with all students in other Zealand, and Canada. to help America’s children prosper in a global age. countries, the U.S. still falls short: only 42 percent are proficient, of the U.S. which would place them at 17th in the world compared with all of Excepted from an op-ed by Eric A. Hanushek and Paul E. Peterson Excerpted from op-ed essay that appeared in Time, July the students in other nations. The only positive sign is the majority that appeared in Newsweek, September 5, 2011. 16, 2012.

10 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 11 International Conferences 2011: The International Experience 2012: Achievement Growth in By Carlos X. Lastra-Anadón and Paul E. Peterson U.S. Schools and Around the World

Learning from international experience can be a bit like reading tea leaves: people are tempted to see in the patterns whatever they think they Nancy Grasmick, former should see. But for all the hazards associated Maryland State Superintendent, with drawing on international experience, the listens attentively to conference greatest risk lies in ignoring such information Keynote speaker Tony Miller, presentations along with altogether. Steadfastly insisting that the United Deputy Secretary of Education, John Winn, former Florida States is unique and that nothing is to be learned U.S. Department of Education. Commissioner of Education. from other lands might appeal to those on the campaign trail. But it is a perilous course of Andrew Schleicher (left), Special Advisor on Education Policy, Organisation action for those who wish to understand—and Paul Pastorek, former State Superintendent, for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Secretary-General, listens improve—the state of American education. Louisiana (left), and Tony Bennett, State to comments on the proceedings from Michael Fullan, professor emeritus, If nothing else, reflection on international Superintendent, Indiana, answer questions on University of Toronto. experience encourages one to think more carefully how their states’ own autonomy and school choice about practices and proposals at home. It is have affected student achievement in the U.S. not so much specific answers that come from conversing with educators from around the world, as it is gaining some intellectual humility. Such conversations provide opportunities to learn the multiple ways in which common questions are Amanda Olberg posed and answered, and to consider how policies that have proved successful elsewhere Dr. Avis Glaze, of Edu-quest might be adapted to International Inc., shares her international experiences. the unique context of U.S. education. Christopher Cerf, State Commissioner of Roberts Ķīlis, Minister of Education and Science, Latvia, the top-performing country in terms of achievement growth, participates in the discussion That, perhaps, is Education, New Jersey, ponders on how we get Eric A. Hanushek, Hoover Institution, addresses the opening alongside special guest and conference keynote speaker Maureen McLaughlin, the most important good teachers. panel at PEPG’s 2012 conference, presenting the event’s principal Senior Advisor to the Secretary and Director of International Affairs, U.S. contribution of the research paper Achievement Growth. Department of Education. August 2011 conference PEPG research fellow, on “Learning from the 2011–2013; master’s in International Experience,” Public Policy candidate, and the August 2012 Harvard Kennedy School, conference on “Learning It is not so much played a key role in the from Improving School organization of the 2012 specific answers that come digital and international Systems at Home conferences. and Abroad.” Many from conversing with educators who attended said the conferences had sparked from around the world, conversations well beyond the usual boundaries on thinking about U.S. education policy, whether Shengchang Tang, principal, Shanghai High Lead author of How the World’s as it is gaining the issue was teacher reforms, school choice, the School, China, discusses student achievement Most Improved School Systems Keep Getting Better, Dr. Mona some intellectual humility. development of common standards and school in his country with PEPG Fellow Carlos X. Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin addresses the 2012 PEPG conference Lastra-Anadón. Mourshed, McKinsey & Co., presents accountability, or the promise of learning online. on high-performing school systems on the role states in fostering achievement growth in education, as PEPG around the world. associate director, Antonio M. Wendland, listens attentively while overseeing Excerpted from a feature article in Education Next, the day’s logistics. Winter 2012.

12 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 13 Hispanics give higher marks to our nation’s schools than do other groups. Students are often given the grades A, B, C, D, and Fail to denote the quality of their work. Suppose the public schools themselves were Findings from the Sixth Annual Public Opinion Survey graded in the same way. What grade would you give the public schools in the nation as a whole? Reform Agenda Gains Strength While Teacher Unions Have a Popularity Problem Hispanics African Americans Whites Public 4 4 6 1 6 1 6 1 By Paul E. Peterson, William Howell, and Martin R. West 12 18 18 20 13 A 35 20 18 B C D Support for increased spending on local public schools However Wisconsin’s recall election turns out on F 46 61 56 54 Tuesday, teacher unions already appear to be losing a is sharply lower among respondents informed about larger political fight—in public opinion. In our latest current spending levels—and lower still among those annual national survey, we found that the share of the asked about taxes to support local public schools. SOURCE: 2012 EducationNext-PEPG Survey of Public Opinion public with a positive view of union impact on local Share supporting increased... schools has dropped by seven percentage points in the past year. Among teachers, the decline was an even spending on public schools taxes to fund public schools more remarkable 16 points. 70 When more options are available, less than half of the public expresses 63 We have asked the following question since 2009: “a lot of trust and confidence” in our nation’s teachers. 60 “Some people say that teacher unions are a stumbling Do you have trust and confidence in the men and women who How much trust and confidence do you have in the men and block to school reform. Others say that unions fight 50 are teaching children in the public schools? women who are teaching children in the public schools? for better schools and better teachers. What do you 43 40 35 think? Do you think teacher unions have a generally PDK-Gallup EdNext-PEPG EdNext-PEPG positive effect on schools, or do you think they have a 30 4 Percent 24 2 9 generally negative effect?” Respondents can choose among five options: 20 27 28 very positive, somewhat positive, neither positive 10 nor negative, somewhat 38 negative, and very negative. 0 Michael Henderson In our polls from 2009 Uninformed* Informed† Uninformed** Informed†† to 2011, we saw little 71 72 49 change in public opinion. *Uninformed: Do you think that government funding for public schools in your district should increase, decrease, or stay about the same? † Around 40 percent of Informed: As it turns out, according to the most recent information available, $[CURRENT SPENDING] is being spent each year per child attending public schools in your district. Do you think that government funding for public schools in your district should increase, Yes No Don’t know Complete A lot Some Little respondents were neutral, decrease, or stay about the same? saying that unions had **Uninformed: Do you think that taxes to fund public schools should increase, decrease, or stay about the same? ††Informed: As it turns out, according to the most recent information available, $[CURRENT SPENDING] is being spent each year SOURCE: 2012 EducationNext-PEPG Survey of Public Opinion; 2012 PDK-Gallup Poll of the Public's Attitudes toward the Public Schools neither a positive nor per child attending public schools in your district. Do you think that taxes to fund public schools in your district should increase, decrease, a negative impact. The or stay about the same? remainder divided almost SOURCE: 2012 EducationNext-PEPG Survey of Public Opinion evenly, with the negative share being barely greater Vouchers garner substantial support, PEPG Research Fellow 2006– than the positive. watchdog Mike Antonucci, top officials of the National Education but tax credit–funded scholarships draw even more. 2011; Assistant Professor, But this year, unions lost ground. Association are reporting a decline of 150,000 members over A proposal has been made that would University of Mississippi, While 41 percent of the public still takes the past two years and project that they will lose 200,000 more Tax credit–funded give low-income families with children in is co-author with Peterson the neutral position, those with a positive members by 2014, as several states have recently passed laws ending Vouchers scholarships and West of a forthcoming public schools a wider choice, by allow- monograph on the conflicting view of unions dropped to 22 percent in the automatic deduction of union dues from teachers’ paychecks. 50 28 ing them to enroll their children in private views of American teachers 2012 from 29 percent in 2011. Teachers’ increasingly critical stance toward their unions schools instead, with government helping and the American public. Political campaigns may already have could have multiple causes. With unions on the defensive in state to pay the tuition. Would you favor or noticed this shift. In a recent address on legislatures—on pension and medical benefits, evaluation systems oppose this proposal? education, GOP presidential candidate and collective bargaining itself—some teachers may be concerned Mitt Romney called teacher unions “the that unions aren’t fighting hard enough for their interests. Others Another proposal has been made to offer a tax credit for individual and corporate clearest example of a group that has lost its way.” may be coming to the conclusion that unions are standing in the 50 72 The survey’s most striking finding comes from its nationally way of education reform. donations that pay for scholarships to representative sample of teachers. Whereas 58 percent of teachers help low-income parents send their chil- dren to private schools. Would you favor took a positive view of unions in 2011, only 43 percent do in Excerpted from an op-ed essay that appeared in the Wall Street Support Oppose or oppose such a proposal? 2012. The number of teachers holding negative views of unions Journal, June 5, 2012. nearly doubled to 32 percent from 17 percent last year. Perhaps SOURCE: 2012 EducationNext-PEPG Survey of Public Opinion this helps explain why, according to education journalist and union

14 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 15 The Global Debt Crisis PEPG Research Papers: 2011–2012 Haunting U.S. and European Federalism By Paul E. Peterson and Daniel Nadler

The Effects of School Vouchers on College Enrollment: Experimental Evidence from New York City Nationwide, state debt is running around $3 trillion. Matthew Chingos – Brookings Institution If unfunded pension liabilities are factored in, Paul E. Peterson – Harvard University estimated liabilities leap forward by another $1 trillion to $4 trillion, depending on the optimism of the The Effects of Test-based Retention on Student assumptions made. Outcomes over Time: Regression Discontinuity Evidence The bond market has taken notice. Before the 2008 from Florida financial crisis, state sovereign debt was just about the Martin R. West – Harvard Graduate School of Education safest place to invest. Because investors did not pay taxes Guido Schwerdt – Harvard University, Ifo Institute on the interest, states were able to borrow money at rates below those paid for federal securities. With the onset of Educational Attainment Across the UK: Performance, the financial crisis, not only did borrowing costs rise across Scholars gathered at Harvard under PEPG auspices in August 2012 to prepare a full- Inequality and Evidence PEPG – Ednext Fellows and Staff: Top Row, Left to Right: Nick Tavares, Web Editor; the board, but differences in interest rates among states scale study of the debt crises within federal systems in the United States and Europe. Stephen Machin – London School of Economics Kathryn Ciffolillo, Manuscript Editor; Bruce Sanders, Design Director; Carol Peterson, widened dramatically. Bond holders concluded that some Sandra McNally – London School of Economics Managing Editor; Carlos X. Lastra-Anadón, Fellow; Janice Riddell, External Relations; states, like Greece, had been extraordinarily profligate, Gill Wyness – London School of Economics Antonio Wendland, Associate Director, Benedikt Siegler, Fellow. Bottom Row, and, even worse, lacked the will to rein in their expenditures. Federal fiscal bailouts put our federal system at risk. In essence, Left to Right: Maura Roche, Program Assistant; Jen Barker, Social Media Manager; Specifically, a 20-percentage-point increment in either the the national government is acting as if states are too big to fail. In Understanding the Divergent Trends in PISA Test Paul E. Peterson, Martin R. West, Amanda Olberg, Fellow. Democratic share of the state legislature or a comparable increase the next financial crisis, the federal government may decide that Results for Poland and the Czech Republic in the share of the public workforce that is unionized drives up states need to be treated like General Motors. Mikolaj Herbst – University of Warsaw interest rates by nearly one half of a percentage point on a five-year But if the federal government is going to tacitly assume Daniel Munich – CERGE–EI Do (German) State Bond Markets Discount Politics? security note. That amount is nontrivial. In Obama’s home state of responsibility for state debts, then those $3 trillion in sovereign state Steven G. Rivkin – University of Illinois at Chicago Daniel J. Nadler – Harvard University Illinois, it is costing governments over $700 million annually. debt must be added to the $14 trillion national debt that has already Jeffrey C. Schiman – University of Illinois at Chicago Sounman Hong – Harvard University The impact of these political factors caused grave concern, pushing the current U.S. debt into the danger Camillo von Muller – University of St. Gallen on interest rates is in addition to the zone. Even if pension liabilities are ignored, the combined federal- Gold Standards? State Standards Reform and Student Achievement Daniel Nadler impact of standard economic factors. state-local debt runs in excess of 120 percent of GDP. Joshua Goodman, Harvard Kennedy School Political and Institutional Determinants of Tax–Exempt Bond Yields State bankruptcies date back to the Daniel J. Nadler – Harvard University 1840s when, amid a financial crisis, Excerpted from oped essay which appeared in the Wall Street School Turnarounds: Evidence from the 2009 Stimulus Sounman Hong – Harvard University Pennsylvania, Michigan, Illinois, and Journal on September 15, 2011. It provided the focal point for the Thomas S. Dee – University of Virginia five other states discovered they had federalism conference. Globally Challenged: Are U.S. Students Ready to Compete? invested too heavily in infrastructure. Achievement Growth: International and U.S. State Trends in Paul E. Peterson – Harvard University But overall, the instances were few; in Student Performance Ludger Woessmann – University of Munich each case, the federal government Eric A. Hanushek – Hoover Institution Eric A. Hanushek – Hoover Institution refused to come up with a fix. Paul E. Peterson – Harvard University Carlos X. Lastra-Anadón – Harvard University Bankrupt states paid the price, With the onset Ludger Woessmann – University of Munich but for the country as a whole, a The Impact of Alternative Grade Configurations on Student Outcomes Education Iron Triangle through Middle and High School PEPG research fellow, 2008– system of fiscally sovereign states of the financial crisis, 2013; Ph.D. candidate, has proven incredibly beneficial to Martin R. West – Harvard Graduate School of Education Guido Schwerdt – Harvard University, Ifo Institute Harvard University. He the nation’s economic well-being. not only did borrowing costs rise Michael Henderson – University of Mississippi Martin R. West – Harvard Graduate School of Education is co-editor, with Paul E. Every state is responsible for its across the board, Paul E. Peterson – Harvard University Peterson, of a forthcoming own police, fire, schools, transport, Effects of Adult Education Vouchers on the Labor Market: Evidence from publication, The Global Debt Does Additional Spending Help Urban Schools? An Evaluation Using a Randomized Field Experiment Crisis: Haunting U. S. and and much more, and most of the but differences in interest rates European Federalism. time they do reasonably well. If Boundary Discontinuities Guido Schwerdt – Harvard University, Ifo Institute they manage their affairs so as to among states Stephen Gibbons – London School of Economics Dolores Messer – University of Bern attract business, commerce and widened dramatically. Sandra McNally – London School of Economics Ludger Woessmann – University of Munich talented workers, states prosper. If states make a mess of Martina Viarengo – The Graduate Institute, Geneva Stefan C. Wolter – University of Bern things, citizens and businesses vote with their feet, marching off to a part of the country that works better.

16 educationnext.org hks.harvard.edu/pepg 17 Nonprofit EN U.S. Postage Paid Program on Education Policy and Governance (PEPG) Permit No. 26 Peterborough, Harvard Kennedy School NH Room T-304 03458 79 John F. Kennedy Street Cambridge, MA 02138