Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report 22 July 2017

Weekly Iraq .Xplored report 22 July 2017

Prepared by Risk Analysis Team, Iraq garda.com/ips

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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report

22 July 2017

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... 2 ACTIVITY MAP ...... 3 OUTLOOK ...... 4

Short term outlook ...... 4

Medium to long term outlook ...... 4 SIGNIFICANT EVENTS ...... 5

ISF to launch offensive soon to retake Tal Afar ...... 5 THREAT MATRIX ...... 5 LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ...... 5

Security ...... 5

Political ...... 6

Foreign Affairs ...... 7

Economy ...... 7 WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT ...... 9

Countrywide Military/Security Situation ...... 9 ACRONYM LIST ...... 15 GARDAWORLD INFORMATION SERVICES ...... 16 GARDAWORLD...... 16

This report is an abridged version of GardaWorld Weekly Iraq .Xplored July 22, 2017. To subscribe to the full versions of the daily/weekly Iraq .Xplored reports, or for enquires relating to other GardaWorld services, please contact [email protected]

Disclaimer: The information and opinions expressed in this Report are the views of GardaWorld and constitute a judgment as at the date of the Report and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions expressed in this Report have been formed in good faith on the basis of the best information and intelligence available at the time of writing, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. GardaWorld accepts no liability arising out of or in connection with the comments made or the information set out in this Report and the reader is advised that any decision taken to act or not to act in reliance on this Report is taken solely at the reader’s own risk. In particular, the comments in this Report should not be construed as advice, legal or otherwise.

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ACTIVITY MAP

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Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report

22 July 2017

OUTLOOK

Short term outlook

. With victory in Mosul announced across Iraqi media, there is an elevated likelihood of coordinated reprisal attacks into population centres across the north, west and centre of Iraq, though these will likely be constrained by resources and the security footprint, particularly in Baghdad. IS may also attempt to increase their attack tempo in eastern Anbar, with the cities of Ramadi and Fallujah likely to be key targets for high- profile attacks.

. Two SVBIED attacks in Basra province on May 19, and SVIED attacks in Karbala and Babel on June 9 exhibit IS retains intent and capability for attacks in the southern provinces. The region remains assessed as non- permissive for IS to significantly escalate operations due to demographics, with the few Sunni militant sympathizers in the region remaining isolated.

. The security footprint and other local factors in the central and southern regions, particularly in Baghdad, will severely constrain IS ability to mount sustained complex attacks of the type reported in the north and the west of the country. The threat from low-level IED and SAF attacks remains. There may be an increased level of ISF deliberate actions to disrupt and deter insurgent and criminal activity during the Mosul operation, especially in the northern areas of Baghdad province.

Medium to long term outlook

. In the absence of concerted engagement with the Sunni population in areas currently under IS control, it is possible that the post-IS security environment will be characterized by sectarian flash points between radical Sunni tribes and Shia militia groups especially in Nineveh province and western Kirkuk. Limited reporting has already indicated displaced Sunni families being advised or directed to leave Kirkuk. It is almost certain that in areas retaken by ISF, an insurgency will be established by Sunni insurgents including remaining IS affiliates.

. Low-level incidents related to criminality, personal disputes and tribal tensions are likely to continue in Basra and the southern provinces in general. This is assessed to be facilitated by large segments of the security forces currently being involved in operations to retake IS-held areas of the country. In the long-term, there will be tensions driven by the return of Shia militia factions, who will expect material and social rewards for the contribution in the national campaign against IS.

. While the Mosul operation has refocused attention away from Abadi’s reform program, the risk of politically motivated demonstrations against corruption in front of government institutions remains extant.

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SIGNIFICANT EVENTS

THREAT MATRIX

Region Political Terrorism Militancy Crime K&R

KRG* Moderate Low Low Low Low

North** Moderate High-Extreme High High High

Baghdad Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate Moderate

Anbar Moderate High High High High

South*** Moderate Low Moderate Moderate Moderate

Threat Scale Minimal Low Moderate High Extreme

* KRG – Dohuk, Erbil & Sulaymaniyah ** North – Nineveh, Salah ad-Din & Diyala *** South – Babil, Wasit, Karbala, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Dhi Qar, Muthanna, Maysan & Basra

LATEST DEVELOPMENTS

Security

ISF to launch offensive soon to retake Tal Afar Top Iraqi military commander, Lt-Gen Abdul Amir Yarallah stated on July 15 that Iraqi forces will soon launch a new offensive to recapture Tal Afar from IS. Yarallah stated that the fourth stage of the 'We Are Coming, Nineveh' operations will be launched soon to liberate Tal Afar city and the other districts in Nineveh province still under IS control. While Yarallah did not mention a timeframe for the commencement of operations against Tal Afar, a number of analysts and commentators have said that it will likely take several weeks for Iraqi forces to realign and refit prior to operations against Tal Afar.

Further speculation over the fate of al-Baghdadi In a further twist over the fate of IS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a senior Iraqi intelligence officer said in a statement on July 16 that al-Baghdadi was still alive and hiding in Syria in an area outside the northern Syrian province of al-Raqqah. The statement was attributed to Abu Ali al-Basri, the head of the intelligence and anti- terrorism department at the Iraqi Interior Ministry. On July 21, the US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis also said that he believed that al-Baghdadi, was still and that he would only believe otherwise when ‘we know for sure we have killed him.’

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IS highlights its ‘operations’ south of Mosul IS has published an infographic on its operation targeting Imam Gharbi village 70km south of Mosul, saying it was in its twelfth day. The group has highlighted the offensive that targeted the village to the south of Qayyarah in the context of its diminishing hold on Mosul. In recent days IS has not posted any updates on the situation in Mosul’s. On 14 July, mainstream news outlets said that Iraqi forces had stormed Imam Gharbi village and made some gains against IS there. The following day reports claimed that the Iraqi army and local militias had recaptured Imam Gharbi village and reopened the Qayyarah-Shirqat road.

Five Germans amongst 20 female IS members apprehended in Mosul Five German women are in custody following a military operation in the Iraqi city of Mosul. It is alleged that they travelled to Iraq to join IS. The five German women in remand are reportedly part of a group of 20 female fighters apprehended in Mosul's Old City area last week, including other nationals from Russia, Turkey, Canada, Libya, and Chechnya. An Iraqi military official stated that the group of women had been hiding in a system of tunnels built by IS, and that weapons and explosive belts were found at the site of their arrest -- presumably to be used for assaults on Iraqi soldiers. Initial reports say that the arrested individuals were working for the police arm of IS in the city,

IS claims attack on Syrian army near Iraqi border Islamic State has claimed killing 25 Syrian soldiers in an attack near the border with Iraq. On 19 July, IS's news outlet Amaq said that IS militants attacked the Syrian army in Wadi al-Waer (al-Waer Valley) near the Syrian- Iraqi border, killing 25 soldiers and destroying a range of military hardware. The Amaq claim was posted on IS channels on the messaging app Telegram. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Syria monitoring group based in the UK, on July 19 also reported ‘ongoing clashes’ between the Syrian army and IS militants in eastern Homs countryside.

Political

Iraqi Sunni political and tribal figures form new alliance Following the Sunni leaders gathering in Baghdad on July 14, which took place at the home Iraq’s Sunni parliamentary Speaker Salim al-Jabouri, an announcement on July 15 stated that following the gathering those involved had formed a new Sunni alliance. According to a media statement, the new alliance will be under the banner of the Alliance of Iraqi National Forces. The stated aim of the alliance is to be involved in the post-IS era and become an authority and mouthpiece for the Sunni population. According to reports, some 300 major political and tribal figures now make up the alliance.

Iraqi PM attends Mosul liberation parade in Baghdad Iraqi military forces paraded through the Baghdad on July 15 to celebrate the recapture of Mosul from IS. The victory parade came days after Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi officially announced ‘victory’ in Mosul, which they had held since 2014. The parade took place on the ‘Cross Swords’ within the International Zone where Abadi revived military hardware, the Iraqi army, the elite counter-terrorism forces, the federal police, and the government-allied Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). The parade also included a fly past by Iraqi aircraft and helicopters.

Issues over the maintenance of Mosul dam need to be addressed: PM Abadi Reports on July 15 claimed that Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi has directed that any obstacles facing the Italian company Trevi, which is maintaining the Mosul dam, need to be resolved. The statement came following a recent meeting between the Ministry of Water Resources and the Italian company supervising the repairs to the dam and the engineering advisory team, according to a statement by the PMs Office. During the meeting, which was attended by the Italian ambassador and the US ambassador to Baghdad, Abadi addressed the need to continue work on the project to maintain the Mosul dam.

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Iraqi forces will not take part in battles outside of Iraq: Iraqi VP Iraqi Vice President Osama al-Nujaifi has said the Iraqi forces will not take part in any battle outside their homeland. Nujaifi's remarks came in response to statements linked to Iraqi Ambassador to Tehran Rajih al- Musawi on Iraqi forces' preparedness to fight IS militants in Syria, according to news reports on July 16. Nujaifi added that Iraqi forces involvement in battles in Syria would be a source of trouble. Iraqi Foreign Ministry Spokesman Ahmed Jamal had earlier said that the Iranian media took Musawi's statements out of context.

Iraqi PM praises ISF for Mosul victory, calls on Turkey to remove troops from Ba'shiqa Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has announced new fund allocations for the Popular Mobilisation Units (PMU), hailing their ‘sacrifices’ during the operation to recapture Mosul from IS. Speaking during his weekly news conference on July 18, aired by state-run Iraqia News TV, Abadi also stated following the complete recapture of Mosul from IS, there was no need for Turkish troops to remain in Ba'shiqa camp, north east of Mosul, as such he stated that he had called on Ankara to fully withdraw its troops from Ba'shiqa.

Foreign Affairs

Egyptian foreign minister visits Iraq Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry arrived in Baghdad on July 19 on an official visit for talks with Iraq officials. During his visit, Shoukry discussed with senior Iraqi officials means of boosting bilateral relations in all fields, as well as the latest developments in the region. Shoukry’s Iraq visit also covered regional issues, including the current boycott against Qatar by a number of Gulf States over allegations that the country funds terrorism. Following his meeting with Shoukry, Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari called for better intelligence cooperation with Egypt in the war on terror, especially against IS. Jaafari also said that Iraq is ready to back Egypt in the face of terrorism the same way Egypt supported Iraq’s stability and security, adding that Cairo's role in the region is pivotal.

Russia confirms deal to supply tanks to Iraq Russia will supply a large batch of tanks to Iraq this year, according to the Russian TASS news agency in a report on July 20. The report cited Vladimir Kozhin, the Russian president's aide for military technical cooperation as stating that the contract was significant and would likely be followed by ‘other deals’. The report stated that the total sum of the contract may exceed $1 billion and will be facilitated through Russia's Uralvagonzavod Corporation, the supplier of the tanks. According to the TASS report, Iraq made the decision to purchase the Russian military hardware following the successful performance of the tanks in Syria.

Jordan, Iraq discuss reopening of Trebil border crossing for trade On 19 July, the army chiefs of both Jordan and Iraq discussed the mechanism for the reopening of the Trebil border crossing between Jordan and Iraq for international trade. The statement was made at a joint press conference in Baghdad following a meeting between Jordanian Lt General Mahmoud Abdul Halim Freihat and Iraqi Gen Othman Ghanmi. Gen Ghanmi praised the role played by Jordan in the war against terrorism, and the support it provided to the Iraqi forces to control the borders. Ghanemi also stated that Iraqi and Jordanian forces had ‘completely secured’ the border area from the Trebil border crossing to the al-Tanf crossing - known as al- Waleed in Iraq.

Saudi Arabia and Iraq to share intelligence; open border crossings and resume direct flights Saudi Arabia and Iraq have agreed to exchange intelligence on counter-terrorism and to reopen two border crossings between the two countries, in a further move to normalise ties marred by over two decades of tension, according to Saudi-funded news channel Al-Arabiya TV on July 21. A news conference in Baghdad also announced that both countries had agreed to create a joint security room that would allow them to exchange intelligence on terrorism and security issues. The conference also announced the opening of the Arar border crossing to facilitate the travel of Iraqi pilgrims to the kingdom's holy sites. In addition to the reopening of the

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22 July 2017 border crossings, direct flights will also resume, starting with air links between Baghdad and Riyadh. These will be followed by others to Mecca and Medina, especially during the pilgrimage season.

Economy

NSTR

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WEEKLY OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT

Countrywide Military/Security Situation

Northern Provinces (Kirkuk/Salah al-Din/Diyala)

Reporting in this period has seen IS continue to test and assert their freedom of action across Nineveh, and Salah ad-Din, including in Mosul’s suburbs. ISF operations in Nineveh and Diyala have seen steady progress and reporting from Hawijah seems to highlight ongoing internal tensions. Reporting in this period indicates that east Mosul's security environment is increasingly 'permissive' though several incidents highlight enduring hazard. The majority of activity reported in the city in this period has been from the west, particularly Old Mosul, where ISF continue to clear out IS fighters, IEDs and 'sleeper cells.'

Across the rest of the province, reporting is very much framed by the anticipated push into Tal Afar, expected to occur in around three weeks' time. Within Tal Afar, IS continue to suffer internal blood-letting and popular reprisals, much of which is revisited upon the civilian population. Further south, reporting was dominated by the joint ISF and PMU operation to recapture Imam Gharbi, though PMU have also reported repelling an attack near ancient Hatra, approximately 100km south of Mosul.

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In Salah ad-Din, two 10-year old children were killed by an IED whilst playing in IS-held east Shirqat; reporting claims that one of the victims was possibly the son of the IS bomb maker responsible. A smuggler was also reportedly killed by IS militants for suspected collaboration with security forces in east Shirqat. IS have made several attacks on positions bordering the Alas and Ajli oilfields. In provincial capital Tikrit, a mass grave containing the remains of Iraqi soldiers killed by IS militants in 2014 was found in the presidential complex. In the south, PMU are reported to have killed three militants in a pre-emptive operation targeting an IS safe-house in al-Zawrah, west of Samarah and four Federal Police members were reportedly wounded in a shooting attack on their patrol in Balad, near the boundary with Baghdad province.

Across the provincial boundary Diyala has seen normal patterns of violence related to tribal, insurgent, criminal and ISF actions. Though the number of discrete incidents province-wide was slightly elevated, all were in-line for long-standing trends in their respective areas. ISF and PMU launched further joint operation to clear IS ‘sleeper cells’ from Tawakol village north of Muqdadiyah, approximately 35km north east of Baqubah. The operation reportedly resulted in four safe-houses destroyed, three IEDs disarmed and the discovery of an underground tunnel. In central Diyala, ISF reported the destruction of a booby-trapped IS safe-house in Mansouriyah. PMU in eastern Diyala also conducted a clearance operation in Naft Khana near the Iranian border, reporting the deaths of several militants in one IS-safe house.

In Kirkuk province, security forces have taken further action to disrupt IS attack planning, reporting arrests in at least two operations in Kirkuk city and the province's northern Dibis district. IS have made their presence felt across the province, with five killed and five abducted during an assault into a village on the eastern fringe of the group's Hawijah enclave.

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Anbar Province

IS in Anbar continue to make their presence felt throughout the province, while ISF have again made efforts to disrupt lethal aid facilitation through the western and southern deserts, and to target IS with airstrikes in their western redoubts. A deputy battalion commander was reportedly killed and several of his personal guards were wounded in a suicide attack during a security operation in Hit. Subsequent reporting stated that ISF had arrested 11 suspects in connection with the SVIED attack. Multiple rockets and mortars launched by IS militants reportedly also impacted Kubaisah sub-district, west of Hit, without causing casualties.

Head of Hit local council, Mohammad Mohammadi, reported that ISF have killed four apparent suicide bombers attempting to infiltrate into Dulab village, 70km west of Ramadi. Also in the Euphrates River Valley, several strikes were reported against IS locations, including an apparent HIMAR guided missile strike into Anah from Al- Assad Airbase in the province's al-Baghdadi sub-district. Unconfirmed social media reporting suggested that two civilian families were killed in coalition airstrikes in al-Qaim.

Two ISF members were killed and two others wounded when an IED detonated in the Kilo 160 area, 150km west of Ramadi; possibly linked to an ISF operation that destroyed 10 explosive vests, 18 anti-tank mines, two trucks loaded with cooking gas cylinders and one fuel tank, south of Kilo 160. A senior figure from the Sunni militia, Khamis Bahar, reported killing two suicide bombers in Karma, 53 km east of Ramadi. Also in Karmah, four suspected IS militants were also arrested in Karmah, east of Fallujah.

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Capital Region (Baghdad City)

IS have conducted further high-profile and low-profile asymmetric attacks. On July 15, one person was killed and seven were wounded in a VBIED detonation near the Mashtal bus terminal in eastern New Baghdad. A fatal IED attack was reported in Sadr City's al-Amana neighbourhood. Two other low-level devices were also reported to have been found and cleared in separate incidents in Shula, in the north west of Kadhimiyah district. In related reporting, ISF made multiple counter-terror arrests across the city and province throughout the week.

Several shooting attacks were reported around the city centre. Several sources reported the apparent targeted killing of an Iraqi Air Force Colonel, named as Bashir Fadhel al-Hamdani. Accounts vary, though indications are that he was shot and killed along with his wife and three children when gunmen broke into their house in the city’s western Mansour district. Several items were also reported stolen.

Other crime reporting in this period has continued in line with recent norms. A doctor, reportedly with prior military service, was also wounded in stabbing attack in his private clinic in al-Ma’amel, in the north east of the province. At least one account indicates he died of his wounds. The Head of Karkh Health Directorate, Chasib Latif al-Hadjami, also announced the release of the surgeon was abducted near Shula in north west Baghdad yesterday. Several bodies showing gunshot or stabbing wounds were recovered from several neighbourhoods in the south and east of the city.

ISF are also reported to have recovered 20 bodies showing gunshot wounds to the head and chest over the course of three days in Zafaraniyah, Kamalya and Rashid IDP Camps in the south west of Baghdad.

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22 July 2017

Central Region (Baghdad Belts)

IS have continued to facilitate high-profile attacks into the city, with ISF reported two apparent intercepts in the west, and contest ISF in rural areas, particularly the north and west. However, IED activity and targeted shootings have been reported throughout the province.

In the north, IS have targeted ISF and civilians with shooting attacks and low-level IEDs. Two fatal UVIED attacks were reported against civilians in Saba al Bor and Tha’alba, north of the city limits.

One ISF member was also killed and another injured in an IED strike against their vehicle in Tarmiyah’s Howrah area. A civilian was also shot dead near his home in Tarmiyah, and ISF are reported to have killed two suicide bombers wearing explosive belts after surrounding a home in the district.

The western has also seen typical patterns of violent activity and attempted HPA facilitation. On July 20, it was reported that three IS suicide bombers were reportedly arrested at CP Falcon, on the western boundary with Anbar. This followed a report that a VBIED had been discovered and control detonated at the location. Five civilians were also wounded in an IDF attack in Radhwaniyah in the provincial south west.

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22 July 2017

Southern Provinces

Mounting violence and instability around Hillah’s northern Musayyib area, a historical centre of support for the Sunni insurgency, has been raised at the national level. Babel MP Ahmad al-Salmani (Iraq National Accord), criticised security provision in Babel province following multiple kidnappings of civilians in Musayyib and Iskandariah areas north of Hillah early this month. Al-Salmani demanded Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi intervened to protect the local population. A number of Sunni families have reportedly faced death threats and told to leave the areas ‘within 24 hours.’ The body of one of the abductees was reportedly found at an unspecified location northern Babel province.

Protest action, some highly agitated, or precipitating a forcible ISF response, has been reported throughout the south. Dozens of employees of the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs staged a protest in Karbala city against delays to their monthly salary payments. The same issue was highlighted in Basra, where dozens of employees on temporary contracts gathered outside al-Najebeiah Power Station in the northern of the city. Unconfirmed reporting from Diwaniyah indicated that ISF forcibly dispersed dozens of protesting teachers demanding permanent contracts from outside the regional office of the Education directorate in Diwaniyah city.

Tribal clashes in Maysan have seen two fatalities. One person was killed and three injured when a tribal fight broke out in al-Musharrah sub-district, east of Amarah. Another person was killed and two others injured in a similar tribal clash in al-Majar, 30km south of Amarah. In other reporting, from Basra, two large cash robberies were reported. On July 17 five masked gunmen were reported to have stolen $350,000 USD in a home invasion in Shatt al-Arab, to the east of Basra city proper. This followed similar reporting on July 19 in which $20,000 USD was reportedly stolen during a burglary in Jubaila, in the north of the city.

Weekly Iraq .Xplored Report

22 July 2017

ACRONYM LIST

AII - Area of Intelligence Interest MoO - Ministry of Oil AKA - Also Known As MoT - Ministry of Transportation AO - Area of Operations MSR - Main Supply Route APC - Armored Personnel Carrier NFDK - No Further Details Known APIED - Anti-Personnel IED NGO - Non-Governmental Organization (aid/charity) AQ - Al-Qaeda NSTR - Nothing Significant To Report AT - Anti-Tank OCG - Organized Crime Group ATGW - Anti Tank Guided Weapon OPF - Oil Protection Force AVIED - Anti-Vehicle IED PAX - Person, Persons or Passenger BBIED - Body Borne IED PBIED - Person-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (UN Bde - Brigade Term) Bn - Battalion PoI - Point of Impact (for IDF) BXP - Border Crossing Point PoO - Point of Origin (for IDF) CET - Convoy Escort Team PSAF - Precision Small Arms Fire CLC - Concerned Local Citizens PSC - Private Security Company CoP - Chief of Police PSD - Private Security Detail CP - Check Point RCIED - Remote-Controlled IED C-PERS - Captured Personnel RPG - Rocket Propelled Grenade CPX - Complex Attack (an attack using multiple weapon RTA - Road Traffic Accident systems) SAF - Small Arms Fire CQA - Close Quarter Assassination/Attack SAFIRE - Surface to Air FIRE DBS - Drive by Shooting SF - Special Forces Div - Division SVBIED - Suicide Vehicle Borne IED DoD - Department of Defense SVEST - Suicide Explosive Worn Vest DoS - Department of State TCN - Third Country National DoS - US Department of State TCP - Traffic Control Point ECP - Entry Control Point Technical - An improvised weapon-mounted pick-up truck ECP - Entry Control Point (IZ, BIAP) TTP - Tactics, Techniques and Practices EFP - Explosively Formed Projectile UVIED - Under Vehicle IED EOD - Explosive Ordinance Disposal (Bomb Squad) UXO - Unexploded Ordnance ERW - Explosive Remnants of War VBIED - Vehicle Borne IED FoM - Freedom of Movement VCP - Vehicle Checkpoint GoI - Government of Iraq WIA - Wounded in Action HCN - Host Country National HG - Hand Grenade HME - Home Made Explosive HMG - Heavy Machine Gun HVT - High Value Target IC - International Community IDF - Indirect Fire (i.e.: rockets, mortars) IDP - Internally Displaced Persons IEC - Independent Electoral Commission IED - Improvised Explosive Device IM - International Military IOC - International Oil Company IRAM - Improvised Rocket Assisted Mortar IRL - Improvised Rocket Launcher IS - Islamic State IVCP - Illegal Vehicle Check Point IVO - In Vicinity Of IZ - International Zone KIA - Killed in Action LN - Local National/Iraqi Civilian MAIED - Magnetically attached IED (aka UVIED) MIA - Missing in Action MoD - Ministry of Defense MoF - Ministry of Finance MoFA - Ministry of Foreign Affairs MoHE - Ministry of Higher Education MoI - Ministry of Interior MoJ - Ministry of Justice

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