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Containing Shiite Militias: the Battle for Stability in Iraq

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Containing Shiite Militias: the Battle for Stability in Iraq P B D C S M: T B S I R A Containing Shiite Militias: The Battle for Stability in Iraq Ranj Alaaldin The Brookings Institution is a private non-profit organization. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Institution, its management, or its other scholars. Brookings recognizes that the value it provides to any supporter is in its absolute commitment to quality, independence and impact. Activities supported by its donors reflect this commitment and the analysis and recommendations are not determined by any donation. Copyright © 2017 Brookings Institution BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 U.S.A. www.brookings.edu BROOKINGS DOHA CENTER Saha 43, Building 63, West Bay, Doha, Qatar www.brookings.edu/doha III Containing Shiite Militias: The Battle for Stability in Iraq Ranj Alaaldin1 The liberation of Mosul is complete. The so- the Badr Brigade), and his deputy, Abu Mahdi called Islamic State (ISIS) is unlikely to govern al-Muhandis (the head of Kataib Hezbollah). and control large swaths of territory any time They have functioned with autonomy over soon. However, while there are reasons to the past decade with considerable resources celebrate, the end of the so-called Caliphate and patronage from their sponsors in Tehran, does not mean the end of ISIS and militancy in and they have also capitalized on Sistani’s call Iraq. To make the liberation of Mosul count, the to arms to sustain, legitimize, and consolidate Iraqi government and its allies will now have to their presence. take on the more difficult long-term challenge of reconstructing the country and reconciling International organizations have accused its communities and political factions. One Iraq’s Shiite militias of committing sectarian particular challenge that could complicate atrocities and human rights abuses.2 Many such efforts is the ascendancy of Shiite militia have fought both Western coalition forces groups, which could soon use their popular and the Iraqi army in the past. Along with support to radically alter the political map of their sectarian discourse, and the substantial the country. support they receive from Iran, these militias have exacerbated sectarian tensions between Many of Iraq’s Shiite militias mobilized in Iraq’s Arab Sunnis and Shiites, which militant response to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s groups like ISIS have exploited to swell their fatwa that called on all able-bodied Iraqis ranks. Shiite militias have also concerned to defend their country when the Iraqi army other sections of Iraqi society. This includes collapsed and Mosul fell to ISIS in June 2014. the Kurds, who have been engaged with the An umbrella militia organization known as the militias in a series of skirmishes in key disputed “Hashd al-Shaabi,” or Popular Mobilization territories, as well as those components of the Forces (PMF), was established in response. Shiite community that do not want Iraq to be On the surface, the PMF constitutes a state- dominated by unaccountable armed groups. sanctioned organization that reports to the federal government, but in practice, it is Reformist politicians, including Prime Minister dominated by Iran-aligned, pre-existing militia Haidar al-Abadi, have criticized militias that groups such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib operate independently of the state and have Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, and called on them to disarm. However, these the Badr Brigade. These actors constitute the calls have been met with fierce resistance from spearhead of the organization and report to the militia factions, which have threatened its de facto leader, Hadi al-Amiri (the head of to reorganize independently if the institution 1 Ranj Alaaldin is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center (BDC). His research focuses on militia groups in Iraq and Syria, govern- ance, state-building, and post-conflict reconstruction in the MENA region. The author would like to thank Adel Abdel Ghafar, Nader Kabbani, and Firas Masri at the BDC for their support and feedback. The author would also like to gratefully acknowledge the support he has received from the BDC communications team, in particular Bahaa Omran, Sumaya Attia, and Francoise Freifer. 2 See for example Human Rights Watch, “Iraq: Ban Abusive Militias from Mosul Operation,” July 31, 2016, https://www.hrw.org/ news/2016/07/31/iraq-ban-abusive-militias-mosul-operation; Jeffrey Gettleman, “Bound, Blindfolded and Dead: The Face of Revenge in Baghdad,” New York Times, March 26, 2006; Amnesty International, “Absolute Impunity, Militia Rule in Iraq,” October 2014, https://www. amnesty.org.uk/files/absolute_impunity_iraq_report.pdf. 1 of the PMF is disbanded.3 Disarming and elections in 2009 and 2010. Therefore, the demobilizing Shiite militia groups is challenging ascendancy of Shiite militia groups (and their and complicated, not only because of their vast Iranian patrons) is not irresistible. Reversing numbers, autonomy, financial resources and their prominence once again requires a holistic arms, but also because of their support bases— approach and a greater appreciation of the due to their significant overlap and interactions complex web of interpersonal and inter- with the Iraqi state and society. organizational links that shape Iraq’s Shiite community. This policy briefing calls for a What compounds the challenge even further three-pronged strategy focused on helping is that Iran-aligned Shiite militias have already Iraqis reduce the space in which Shiite militias established themselves as quasi versions of operate by establishing an environment and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, having enjoyed the space culture of accountability. to do so as a result of the fragility of the Iraqi state and society over the past decade. In other First, the United States should shift its resources words, they have established themselves as away from the Iraqi state—specifically its socio-cultural movements that have military political class—and recalibrate its policies and social welfare wings and that operate toward the grassroots communal dynamics of independently of the state. Conversely, they the Shiite community. Moreover, the United have not yet amassed the same power and States should empower the array of state-aligned authority as their Lebanese counterparts. militias, tribes, and clerical figures whose Moreover, the PMF was institutionalized into political and ideological alignments, as well the Iraqi state only recently and now functions as their day-to-day interactions and discourse, parallel to a much weaker Iraqi military. This are characterized by pluralistic values and could result in Iraq elevating the PMF into hostility to Iranian interference. These actors its own version of the Iranian Revolutionary have been misunderstood and unappreciated Guards Council (IRGC). Therefore, it is by policymakers, but they display far-reaching not too late to either resolve the problem of influence and moral authority within the Shiite autonomous Shiite militias or, at least, contain community, which should be utilized. them in the coming years. Second, the United States should use its Iraq’s Shiite militias were once pushed to influence to ensure international resources are the margins after the Iraqi state and its directed toward Iraqi NGOs, humanitarian institutions—particularly its armed forces— organizations, and civil-society actors, which became more effective. With substantial U.S. generally have greater reach and credibility military support, the country was stabilized than international organizations. These local between 2008-2011, rendering Shiite militias actors are better positioned to nudge armed an unnecessary force. The militias were groups into respecting human rights and thereafter derided for their general lawlessness adopting basic international norms, but they and for committing human rights abuses. have received insufficient investment and The entities that aligned themselves with Iran remain vulnerable to becoming political fronts were punished at the provincial and national for corrupt elites.4 3 United States Institute of Peace, “Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi on U.S. Ties, War with ISIS,” March 20, 2017, https://www.usip.org/events/ iraqi-prime-minister-abadi-us-ties-war-isis; “Iraqi PM Haider al-Abadi Compares Shiite Militias to ISIS: We Did Not Fight the Baath Re- gime Only to be Ruled by Gangs,” MEMRI TV, May 20, 2017, https://www.memri.org/tv/iraqi-pm-abadi-slams-shiite-militias; Hayder al-Khoei, Twitter Post, July 8, 2017, https://twitter.com/Hayder_alKhoei/status/883461859717894145. 4 For studies on this, see Oliver Kaplan, “Nudging Armed Groups: How Civilians Transmit Norms of Protection,” Stability: International Journal of Security & Development (December 2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.5334/sta.cw. 2 Containing Shiite militias: The Battle for Stability in Iraq Finally, Shiite militias may have battlefield From this environment emerged Mohammed experience, but they are ill-equipped to engage Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, the founder of in governance and administration. In the the Sadrist movement that today, under the event that Shiite militia factions fail to deliver leadership of his son Muqtada, constitutes security and services to local communities, Iraq’s most powerful socio-political
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