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Beyond the Carbon Curse: a Study of the Governance Foundations of Climate Change Politics in Australia, Canada and Norway

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Beyond the Carbon Curse: a Study of the Governance Foundations of Climate Change Politics in Australia, Canada and Norway Beyond the Carbon Curse: a Study of the Governance Foundations of Climate Change Politics in Australia, Canada and Norway by Nathan C Lemphers A thesis submitted in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto © Copyright by Nathan Lemphers 2020 Beyond the Carbon Curse: A study of the governance foundations of climate change politics in Australia, Canada and Norway Nathan Lemphers Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science University of Toronto 2020 Abstract Without risking hyperbole, climate change is the greatest political challenge humanity has ever faced. The world must achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century if the most catastrophic damage is to be avoided. The prospect of environmental transformation is most remote for major fossil fuel-exporting countries. Yet amongst the world’s largest exporters of carbon, three countries are more likely to make a transition: Australia, Canada and Norway. Across these three countries, significant climate policy variation exists. Norway developed an early, broad, diverse and durable suite of climate policies compared to Australia and Canada. In this dissertation, I explain the climate policy variation of these three countries and why responses from sympathetic governments were able to make headway and entrench policies in some cases but not others. A novel analytical framework is created to explain these outcomes using within-case process tracing and a comparative case study. Data is obtained largely through interviews with 124 informants and primary document analysis. II My central finding is that the governance foundations of climate policy are critical in explaining climate policy. State strength matters. A strong and democratic state has the potential to assuage the political risk facing economic and regime elites from climate policy. It can restructure policy networks to empower civil society so that transformative climate policy is more likely to be announced and implemented. State strength can explain why switching governments in Australia and to some degree in Canada, as opposed to Norway, meant slow shifts and easy reversal. This dissertation contributes in several ways to the scholarship on comparative environmental politics and green state political theory. First, it foregrounds the role of the state in comparative environmental politics by emphasizing the unique and critical role that states play in providing the governance foundations needed to domestically decarbonize. Second, it theorizes linkages that can reconcile the green state literature with the economic growth imperative and the biogeochemical limits of the planet. Lastly, it provides theoretical insights into the transformative and democratic role of the strong state in addressing climate change by stressing inclusivity throughout the policymaking process. III Acknowledgements This dissertation was borne out of my ignorance and curiosity in how other countries with a similar reliance on fossil fuels production have managed climate policy. Many years later, it is safe to say I have more tools and wisdom than I did before. However, I did not get here on my own. My former colleagues at the Pembina Institute inspired and encouraged my curiosity and got shit done, particularly Clare Demerse, Simon Dyer, Jennifer Grant, Julia Kilpatrick, Jeremy Moorhouse, Aarti Rana, Marlo Raynolds, Tim Weis, Ed Whittingham, and Dan Woynillowicz. Thanks also to my colleagues at Oil Change International, where I worked in my final year of my doctoral studies as I was wrapping up my dissertation. Hannah McKinnon, Matt Maiorana, Greg Muttitt, Kelly Trout, Alex Doukas, Collin Rees, Elizabeth Bast and Steve Kretzmann were a collective source of inspiration for me as exceptionally bright, committed and strategic activists on the leading edge of the climate movement. A special award goes to my dissertation supervisor Steven Bernstein, who took me under his wing knowing I had not taken a political science course in my life. Steven provided generous and sage advice as he guided me through the crucible of doctoral research. My other dissertation committee members, Grace Skogstad and Lou Pauly, shared prescient and timely advice, giving me room to discover things on my own but guidance to anticipate and steer away from intellectual traps. Thanks also to my internal examiner, Matthew Hoffmann, who helped me focus my argument and reminded me of the normative dimensions to my work. Angela Carter, my external examiner, renewed my excitement in turning this dissertation into a timely book. I am deeply appreciated the feedback I received on my dissertation from other academics in Canada, especially Kathryn Harrison, Peter Dauvergne, Jennifer Clapp, Graeme Auld and Laurie Adkin. To the administrative support of the Department of Political Science, notably Carolynn Branton, Mary-Alice Bailey, and Lou Tentsos, I salute you. Your behind-the-scenes work keeps the department afloat and its many graduate students able to navigate our time at the University. IV My friends and colleagues at the University of Toronto’s Department of Political Science and the Environmental Governance Lab at the Munk School of Global Affairs were a cherished source of camaraderie and inspiration over the past six years: Steven Denney, Emile Dirks, Wayne Zhu, Laura Tozer, Heather Millar, Hamish van der Ven, Dave Gordon, Erica Petkov, Jacqueline Peterson, Eve Bourgeois, and Amy Janzwood. While I was living in Toronto, I had the privilege to be a Junior Fellow at Massey College. The richly diverse conversations I had with the Massey College community fed the multidisciplinary part of my brain and provided a respite from the, at times restricting, confines of political science. The Round Room offered an appropriately dignified and somewhat intimidating venue for my dissertation defence. For four years during my dissertation, I was a Pierre Elliot Trudeau Foundation Scholar. It is difficult to enumerate the number of kindred spirits and sources of inspiration I found within the Foundation’s community. There are too many to name them all here but at the core was my 2014 cohort of scholars and Josée St-Martin, the Foundation’s scholarship administrator. For my Canada-based research, I have deep gratitude to Michael Horgan, my mentor through the Trudeau Foundation, who shared his insights as Canada’s Deputy Minister of Finance, Environment, and Natural Resources. He helped open the doors to many key interviews. Former Canadian High Commissioner to Australia Michael Small, Former Canadian Ambassador to Norway Jillian Stirk and Else Kveinen at Norway’s Ottawa Embassy provided valuable advice prior to my international fieldwork. For 5 months in 2017, I had the privilege of living in Oslo. I was a Visiting PhD Student at the climate change policy think tank, CICERO, based at the University of Oslo. Guri Bang and Arild Underdal were instrumental in bringing me on board and making me feel at home. I’d like to thank the members of the climate policy team there, notably: Bård Lahn, Merethe Dotterud Leiren, Solveig Aamodt, Elin Lerum Boasson, Håkon Sælen, and Erlend Hermansen. Much gratitude to Kristin Halvorsen for your interview and your introductions to luminary Norwegians and for Nathalie Schaller for guiding Marie-Camille and I through the underground world of Franco-expat-parents in Oslo. Also in Oslo, I was a Visiting Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute for International Affairs (NUPI). This connection would not have been possible without V Mikkel Pedersen who found a home for me within the think thank’s Energy and Russia Group. My colleagues Indra Overland, Helge Blakkisrud, Roman Valkchuk, Elana Wilson Rowe, Jakub Godzimirski, Kristian Lundby Gjerde, Kristin Fjæstad, Malin Østevik, and Sigrid Valberg were an excellent collective sounding board on my initial research interviews and helped to educate me on Norway-Russian energy relations. Thanks to Elin Maria Fiane for your outstanding support with the NUPI library. Beyond those at CICERO and NUPI, thanks must be given to the broader community of scholars that welcomed my curiosity: Oluf Langhelle, Helge Ryggvik, Einar Lie, Klaus Mohn, Jon Birger Skjærseth, Tine Handeland, Fay Farstad, Dag Harald Claes, Peter Notre, Else Grete Broderstad, and Berit Kristoffersen. Many thanks to Synnøve Hageberg, the ever-patient librarian at the Norwegian Oil Museum in Stavanger. During my four months in Australia, I had the fortune of being based at the University of Melbourne’s Australia-German Climate and Energy College. It was Anita Talberg that initially recruited me and made me and my family feel immediately welcome in Australia. College Director Malte Meinshausen and his mötley crüe of PhD students provided an engaging and family-friendly environment to puzzle through Australian politics. Thanks to Annabelle Workman and Stephen Pollard for showing me it is possible to have two kids and stay sane while completing a dissertation. Robyn Eckersley, who had the odious task of being my local supervisor in Melbourne, provided excellent counsel on my research as it unfolded Down Under. I would be remiss not to thank the other academics who took the time to meet with me including: Peter Christoff, Paul Burke, Evgeny Postnikov, Christopher Wright, Frank Jotzo, Ross Garnaut, Clive Hamilton, Hugh Saddler, Kate Crowley, Chris Riedy, Tim Flannery, David Karoly and Jim Stanford. It did not take long after arriving in Melbourne for some of our local neighbours to befriend us. Thanks for making us feel at home so quickly. The efficient librarians at the National Library of Australia were very helpful. The staff of the Blackwater International Coal Centre in Central Queensland and the Hunter Valley Coal Industry Centre and local activists in both coal regions shared with me crucial local dimensions that did not emerge from my interviews with downtown elites. I would like thank the 124 interviewees who shared their time and wisdom with me as I sought to solve what I think is particularly vexing public policy issue. A full list of interviewees can be found at the end of my dissertation.
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