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The Foreign Minister Who Never Was

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The Foreign Minister Who Never Was The foreign minister who never was BY:DENNIS SHANAHAN, POLITICAL EDITOR The Australian March 02, 2012 12:00AM Cartoon by Peter Nicholson. Source: The Australian JULIA Gillard's ability to turn good news - a brilliant political strategy, a poignant moment, or an opportunity to become strong, credible and assertive - into bad news and dumb politics appears to be boundless. And, when the Prime Minister has a brain snap, makes an error of judgment or gets into trouble for a reflexive and ill-considered denial the finger is pointed towards staff, speech writers, the hate media, Tony Abbott, or most of all, Kevin Rudd. The mistakes she's admitted are those where she neglected to publicly apportion blame to Rudd as a dysfunctional, pathological leader, and this being the reason for her taking over as prime minister in June 2010. On Monday morning, after three politically debilitating months of unforced errors, media disasters and a destabilising campaign to gather support for a Rudd leadership challenge, Gillard was finally in the clear. After a brilliant political strategy to force Rudd's hand early, at least two weeks before he was prepared to go, Gillard was able to crush him in the Labor caucus ballot 71 to 31 votes. Although there was a strong element of voting against Rudd rather than for Gillard in the ballot, it saw off Rudd's chances for this parliamentary term at least and gave Labor a chance to regather its thoughts and try to redeem a seemingly hopeless position. Gillard set out her intentions, addressing the public: "I can assure you that this political drama is over and now you are back at centre stage where you should properly be and you will be the focus of all of our efforts." On the issue of reshuffling her ministry and whether she would be punishing Rudd supporters, Gillard declared: "My focus will be on having a team based on merit and the ability to take the fight up on behalf of Labor to our conservative opponents. That's how I will make the selections." Ministers said this was the start of a new assertiveness from Gillard, that she had proved she was as tough as titanium and would be methodical and disciplined. It was the clear air Gillard craved and the opportunity to recast her frontbench on merit, revive the government and address some policy horrors. Within hours of the leadership victory, Gillard was on the telephone talking to former NSW premier Bob Carr, Labor's longest-serving NSW premier who had been approached by NSW Labor general-secretary, Sam Dastyari, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Mark Arbib's resignation and the foreign affairs vacancy created by Rudd's resignation. After at least two conversations with Gillard on Monday night Carr thought he had the job he'd always wanted. He began to prepare for the job, he spoke to people about the portfolio and even booked a flight from Sydney to Canberra about 10am on Tuesday for an announcement. Gillard then made her first real mistake while still bathed in the golden glow of victory. Dastyari had done the right thing by Labor, Gillard and Carr. While the extent of Carr's appeal outside NSW might be debatable, there was no doubt his appointment as a "respectable replacement" would serve as a circuit-breaker for Labor and change the focus from Rudd. But Gillard, who'd accepted the arguments and grasped the plan, lost all the apparent steely resolve in the face of demands Stephen Smith, who had stepped aside for Rudd in 2010 and helped build her numbers in Monday's ballot, should get the job. Simon Crean, who taunted Rudd into the open, publicly said appointments should be made to those who'd done their time. There was factional resistance as well. Wayne Swan, who supported the idea, had to ring Carr early on Tuesday, before he headed for the airport, to tell him the deal was off. Carr was distraught. He sent emails and at a dinner in Sydney "couldn't stop talking about what had happened to him". Gillard had folded at the first test of her new assertiveness. Her second mistake was to dismiss The Australian's report on Wednesday of the events as "completely untrue" though The Sydney Morning Herald online had broken a version of the story on Tuesday about 10.30am, and Carr had already responded to questions about the welshed deal on Wednesday morning. Gillard paid the price among her colleagues for another error of judgment and in the parliament as her authority was queried and her truthfulness challenged. Incredibly, perhaps ironically, according to the ABC's 7.30 on Wednesday night: "Some ministers are privately blaming Rudd supporters for mischief-making and somehow being responsible for this report in one newspaper claiming there'd been a rebellion over plans to offer Bob Carr the plum Foreign Affairs job instead of Defence Minister Stephen Smith." But there is a greater issue here than just a bungled attempt to woo Carr to Canberra and another mishandled media performance where Gillard looked shifty and insecure, as she did handling the fallout from the Australia Day riot and leadership coup on the ABC's Four Corners. A media embarrassment will pass as newspapers sop up spilled water from a dog's dish but the nation can't afford a ministry that looks like a dog's breakfast built on the principles of reward for those who "got numbers" for her and punishment for Rudd backers. If Smith gets Foreign Affairs, Gillard's crumbled, putting someone back in the portfolio who was indecisive and globally invisible and she'll be turning over Defence for the fourth time and not to her first choice. There would be enormous resistance to have her key backer, Joel Fitzgibbon, back in Defence and while some senior Defence figures would be happy to see Smith go, there are those who fear another minister - unless it's Greg Combet who has some experience - is treating Defence with disrespect and disregard. On the other hand, Gillard will damage her credibility with the public and industry if she were to punish Resources Minister Martin Ferguson, who was handed the job by her in June 2010, to fix the mess that was the then Resources Super Profits Tax. At the time Crean publicly confirmed the government had not properly consulted the mining industry which felt betrayed before Ferguson's appointment. The Minerals Resources Rent Tax is still not through the Senate. Having blown the best bet at a bold and attractive move with the cabinet, Gillard may now be best served by leaving as many people as possible where they are. .
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