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Trends in Australian Political Opinion Results from the Australian Election Study 1987– 2019

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Trends in Australian Political Opinion Results from the Australian Election Study 1987– 2019 Trends in Australian Political Opinion Results from the Australian Election Study 1987– 2019 Sarah Cameron & Ian McAllister School of Politics & International Relations ANU College of Arts & Social Sciences australianelectionstudy.org Trends in Australian Political Opinion Results from the Australian Election Study 1987– 2019 Sarah Cameron Ian McAllister December, 2019 Sarah Cameron School of Social and Political Sciences The University of Sydney E [email protected] Ian McAllister School of Politics and International Relations The Australian National University E [email protected] Contents Introduction 5 The election campaign 7 Voting and partisanship 17 Election issues 31 The economy 51 Politics and political parties 71 The left-right dimension 81 The political leaders 85 Democracy and institutions 97 Trade unions, business and wealth 107 Social issues 115 Defence and foreign affairs 129 References 143 Appendix: Methodology 147 Introduction The Liberal-National Coalition The results also highlight how In 2019 two further surveys are win in the 2019 Australian federal voter attitudes contributed available to complement the election came as a surprise to the to the election result. Factors AES. The first is Module 5 of the nation. The media and the polls advantaging the Coalition in the Comparative Study of Electoral australianelectionstudy.org had provided a consistent narrative 2019 election include: the focus Systems project (www.cses. in the lead up to election day that on economic issues (p. 32), an org). This survey used the Social > Access complete data files and Labor was headed for victory. area in which the Coalition has Research Centre’s ‘Life in Australia’ documentation to conduct your When we have unexpected election a strong advantage over Labor panel and was fielded just after the own analysis results, how do we make sense of (p. 34); and Bill Shorten’s low election. In addition to fielding the why people voted the way they did? popularity in comparison to other Module 5 questionnaire, the survey > Explore interactive charts to party leaders over the past thirty also included a variety of other The Australian Election Study (AES) examine differences in political years (p. 88). Although the Coalition questions relevant to the election. provides the most sophisticated attitudes by age, gender, education won the election, there were The second is the 2016-19 panel and comprehensive source of level and vote factors benefitting Labor. Climate survey, which re-interviewed 968 evidence ever collected on political change and the environment respondents between the two attitudes and behaviour in Australia. > Download Australian Election were more important issues in this elections and provides a unique A representative public opinion Study reports and articles election than in any other election insight into the factors influencing survey, the AES has been fielded on record (p. 33), an area where changes in political attitudes after every federal election since Labor’s policies are preferred to the and behaviour between the two 1987. The survey asks a wide Coalition’s (p. 39). And a majority elections. range of questions to discover what of voters disapproved of the way shaped voters’ choices at the ballot In this monograph, we draw on the the Liberal Party handled the 2018 box—including considerations in main recurring themes of the AES leadership change from Malcolm the vote decision, the importance of to trace long-term changes in the Turnbull to Scott Morrison (p. 95). different policy issues, and attitudes political opinion of the electorate. towards the political parties and In most cases, our trends run from The appendix provides an overview leaders. This provides a wealth of 1987 until 2019; in some cases, of the methodology used in each information to understand voter the same questions have been survey. behaviour and how that feeds into asked in surveys conducted in Further details on the dynamics election results. 1967, 1969 and 1979, allowing shaping the 2019 election are us to extend the time series This monograph presents the provided in our accompanying back another two decades. The long-term trends over time in report, The 2019 Australian 1987 to 2019 trends are based voter attitudes and behaviour Federal Election: Results from on the Australian Election Study in Australia. Situating the 2019 the Australian Election Study. (AES) surveys, comprehensive election in historical context These reports and a range of other post-election surveys of political highlights unique factors in this resources including codebooks, opinion that have asked the same election. Many indicators point to technical reports and an interactive questions and used substantially citizen detachment from the major tool to explore the data online, the same methodology. The 1967, political parties, including record are available on the AES website: 1969 and 1979 surveys are also low political partisanship (p. 28), australianelectionstudy.org comprehensive academic surveys rising voter instability (p. 21) and of political opinion; all three surveys Sarah Cameron voter distrust in government (p. 99). were conducted by Don Aitkin, who Ian McAllister Compared to previous elections, pioneered the use of mass public voters saw clear differences opinion surveys in the academic between the parties (p. 27). December 2019 study of politics in Australia. 5 Acknowledgements The election campaign Voting and partisanship Election issues The economy Many individuals have contributed to the Australian Election Study Politics and political parties over its more than thirty year history. The current team of investigators The left-right dimension includes Ian McAllister, Jill Sheppard, Clive Bean, Rachel The political leaders Gibson and Toni Makkai. Previous contributors include David Democracy and institutions Denemark, David Gow, Roger Jones, Anthony Mughan and Trade unions, business and wealth Juliet Pietsch. Anna Lethborg at the Social Research Centre fielded the 2019 survey. Steven Social issues McEachern, Marina McGale and Lawrence Rogers at the Australian Defence and foreign affairs Data Archive prepared the data for public release. Emily Downie, Ralph References Kenke, Ron Woods and Small Multiples have contributed to the Appendix: Methodology graphic design of this report. Martin Heskins in the ANU School of Politics and International Relations has provided support with project management. The Australian Election Study is funded by the Australian Research Council (details on p. 149). Last but not least, this research is made possible by the thousands of Australians who completed the Australian Election Study surveys and shared their opinions as captured in this report. 6 7 The election campaign Followed the election in the mass media Watched the leaders’ debates Television Watched debate Radio Did not watch debate Newspapers Internet 70% 90% 63 79 59 80 60 55 71 52 68 70 65 70 48 50 60 58 57 60 42 42 56 40 54 53 40 37 36 50 47 47 34 44 33 32 43 32 31 42 30 30 40 29 28 40 30 27 26 35 26 25 32 30 23 21 21 21 30 18 20 30 19 22 18 20 17 16 17 17 21 18 15 15 19 17 16 15 12 20 14 14 15 10 11 10 7 10 3 2 1 0 0 1967 1969 1979 1987 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1990 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 8 The election campaign 9 The election campaign Interest in the election Contacted by candidate or political party Care a good deal who wins the election Contacted by a party during the campaign A good deal of interest in the election 90% 70% 83 79 60 61 80 76 74 60 57 72 75 68 69 70 65 65 68 66 50 45 60 60 50 40 50 33 40 38 29 40 28 30 33 32 34 34 30 30 31 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 1967 1969 1987 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 10 The election campaign 11 The election campaign Discussing the election campaign with others Involvement in the election campaign Discuss politics Attend meeting Persuade others how to vote Work for party or candidate Contribute money to a political party or election candidate 100% 14% 88 84 82 12 12 80 75 76 11 74 10 73 72 10 68 67 9 8 60 8 8 7 49 42 6 40 5 5 35 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 3 3 18 18 3 3 2 3 3 2 20 15 2 15 14 14 3 2 3 2 2 11 0 0 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 1969 1993 1996 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 12 The election campaign 13 The election campaign Websites accessed during the election campaign Online activity during the election campaign Party or candidate campaign sites Signed up to receive information from a party or candidate Mainstream news media Shared unofficial political content online Federal Parliament Joined a political group on a social networking site Australian Electoral Commission Unofficial online videos 50% 12% 42 42 10 10 10 9 40 8 30 30 30 7 27 6 21 21 5 5 20 4 19 17 15 4 14 14 12 10 8 9 2 2 8 2 10 8 8 2 2 6 5 5 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 2010 2013 2016 2019 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 14 The election campaign 15 The election campaign Notes ‘contribute money to a political party or election candidate’; (2010) The election campaign Followed the election in the combined responses to ‘contribute mass media money to a political party or election Voting and partisanship Response categories for television, candidate by mail or phone’ and radio and newspapers are: ‘contribute money to a political Election issues (1967-1979) ‘yes’; (1987-1990) party or election candidate using ‘often’; (1993-2019) ‘a good deal’.
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