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Speed Selection During Winter Road Conditions (MPC-19-394)

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Speed Selection During Winter Road Conditions (MPC-19-394) MPC 19-394 | S. Thapa and R. Young Speed Selection During Winter Road Conditions A University Transportation Center sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation serving the Mountain-Plains Region. Consortium members: Colorado State University University of Colorado Denver Utah State University North Dakota State University University of Denver University of Wyoming South Dakota State University University of Utah Speed Selection During Winter Road Conditions Sandeep Thapa Graduate Research Assistant Rhonda Young, P.E., Ph.D Adjunct Professor University of Wyoming August 2019 Acknowledgements This research was made possible with funding supported by the U.S. Department of Transportation though the Mountain-Plains Consortium (MPC) Transportation Center. Disclaimer The contents of this report reflect the views of the authors, who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the information presented. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program, in the interest of information exchange. The U.S. Government assumes no liability for the contents or use thereof. NDSU does not discriminate in its programs and activities on the basis of age, color, gender expression/identity, genetic information, marital status, national origin, participation in lawful off- campus activity, physical or mental disability, pregnancy, public assistance status, race, religion, sex, sexual orientation, spousal relationship to current employee, or veteran status, as applicable. Direct inquiries to: Vice Provost, Title IX/ADA Coordinator, Old Main 201, 701-231-7708, [email protected]. TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Problem Statement ......................................................................................................................... 3 1.2 Objectives and Goals ...................................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Report Organization ....................................................................................................................... 4 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 Impact of Adverse Weather Conditions on Speed Selection.......................................................... 5 2.2 Microscopic Behaviors ................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.1 Driver Car-Following Behavior .......................................................................................... 8 2.2.2 VISSIM Car-Following Behavioral Models ....................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Gap Acceptance Behavior................................................................................................. 11 2.3 Microscopic Traffic Simulation Models and Weather Conditions ............................................... 12 2.4 Weather Responsive Traffic Management Strategies .................................................................. 13 2.5 Statistical Analyses of Weather Related Driver Behavior ........................................................... 15 2.6 Speed Selection Behavior ............................................................................................................. 15 2.7 Summary of Literature Review .................................................................................................... 16 3. ROADWAY SEGMENT AND PROJECT DATA .......................................................................... 17 3.1 Roadway Segment Selection Process ........................................................................................... 17 3.2 Wyoming Corridors...................................................................................................................... 17 3.2.1 Elk Mountain Corridor ...................................................................................................... 18 3.2.2 Laramie−Cheyenne Corridor ............................................................................................ 21 3.2.3 Green River−Rock Springs Corridor ................................................................................ 23 3.3 Colorado Corridors ....................................................................................................................... 25 3.4 Summary of Selected Roadway Segments ................................................................................... 25 3.5 Project Data Collection ................................................................................................................ 25 3.5.1 Traffic data ........................................................................................................................ 25 3.5.2 Weather Data .................................................................................................................... 26 3.6 Existing ITS Applications ............................................................................................................ 27 3.7 Merged Datasets ........................................................................................................................... 28 4. DATA ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................. 30 4.1 Data Description ........................................................................................................................... 30 4.1.1 Wyoming Data .................................................................................................................. 30 4.2 Descriptive Statistics of Vehicle Speeds ...................................................................................... 34 4.2.1 Vehicle Speed Baseline .................................................................................................... 35 4.2.2 Traffic Speed ..................................................................................................................... 37 4.2.3 Vehicle Speeds During Non-Ideal Periods ....................................................................... 38 4.2.4 Speed and Cumulative Distributions ................................................................................ 39 4.2.5 Standard Deviation ........................................................................................................... 41 4.3 Headways and Gap Analyses ....................................................................................................... 43 4.4 Comparison Between Ideal Periods and Storm Events ................................................................ 45 i 5. STATISTICAL MODELING............................................................................................................ 49 5.1 Ordered Probit Model for Speed Selection Behavior ................................................................... 49 5.1.1 Descriptive Statistics ......................................................................................................... 50 5.1.2 Model Estimation Results ................................................................................................. 52 5.2 Log-Logistic Distribution Model for Vehicle Headway .............................................................. 56 5.2.1 Descriptive Statistics ......................................................................................................... 56 5.2.2 Model Estimation Results ................................................................................................. 57 5.2.3 Comparison Between the Results ..................................................................................... 59 6. MICROSCOPIC SIMULATION...................................................................................................... 62 6.1 Base Model ................................................................................................................................... 63 6.2 Adjusted Models .......................................................................................................................... 64 6.3 Model Calibration ........................................................................................................................ 65 6.4 Sensitivity Analysis ...................................................................................................................... 66 6.5 Procedures for Calibrating Adverse Weather Conditions in VISSIM .......................................... 71 7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................. 77 7.1 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................................... 77 7.1.1 Analysis of Speed ............................................................................................................. 77 7.1.2 Impacts of Adverse Weather Condition on Traffic Operations ........................................ 77 7.1.3 Impacts of Adverse Weather Condition on Microscopic Indicators ................................. 79 7.1.4 Sensitivity Analysis on Weather Responsive Simulation Model Parameters ................... 79 7.1.5 Procedure Guidelines for Calibrating Adverse
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