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Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report

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Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report Oman Fisheries & Aquaculture Climate Change Risk Assessment Technical Report John Pinnegar, Ella Howes, Georg Engelhard, Will Le Quesne 2020 Cefas Document Control Submitted to: David Ramos Date submitted: 25/10/2020 Project Manager: Kerry I’Anson Report compiled by: John Pinnegar, Ella Howes, Georg Engelhard Quality control by: Will Le Quesne Approved by and date: Will Le Quesne – 25/10/2020 Version: 2.0 Pinnegar, J.K., Howes, E.L., Engelhard, G.H., Le Quesne, W.J.F. (2020) Vulnerability of Fisheries to Climate Change in Oman. Report of Task 1: Recommended citation Climate change Risk Assessment (CRA), Centre for Environment, for this report: Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (Cefas), Lowestoft, United Kingdom Version Control History Version Author Date Comment Initial Draft (without 0.1 John Pinnegar 10/09/2020 aquaculture section) Georg Engelhard & 0.2 06/10/220 Full report John Pinnegar 1.0 Will Le Quesne 07/10/20 QC – Final edit 2.0 Will Le Quesne 24/10/20 Revised Exec Summary Executive Summary Fish and seafood are a global commodity with an estimated global first sale value of over US$ 390 billion per year, this figure is increased by value-added processing as fish products pass through the supply chain. Fish are also an important part of global food supplies; 3.3 billion people rely on fish for over 20% of their annual animal protein intake. As well as being of global significance, fisheries are an important source of revenue, employment and food in Oman. Fisheries in Oman generated a first sale price of almost US$ 400 million in 2019 including over US$ 260 million of exports. This is a contribution of approximately 0.8% of national GDP and provided over 50,000 direct jobs. Fisheries are recognised as one of the five sectors of Oman’s economy that can drive economic diversification, and ambitious investment plans amounting to US$ 2.5 billion have been proposed to rapidly develop Oman’s wild fisheries, aquaculture and processing sectors. Wild fisheries and aquaculture are directly, or indirectly, connected with the natural environment and exposed to the effects of climate change. Climate driven changes in productivity and sustainability can directly impact the wild fisheries and aquaculture sectors and ripple through supply chains, impacting associated investments, infrastructure and downstream processing. Therefore, implementing actions to build resilience and adaptive capacity in fisheries and aquaculture is necessary to futureproof the livelihoods, food security, revenues and investments associated this sector. Through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Oman has agreed to take ambitious actions to adapt to the effects of climate change, and a decline in fisheries productivity has been identified in Oman’s Nationally Determined Contribution as a priority for adaptation action. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has established a framework for conducting climate change risk assessments to understand how the different components of climate risk affect linked ecological-economic systems. The results of the fisheries and aquaculture climate change risk assessment presented in this report facilitate the development of prioritised resilience and adaptation building actions to ensure long-term environmental and economic sustainability in the fisheries sector in Oman. The fisheries climate risk assessment took account of ecological sensitivity and exposure to climate change impacts, as well as the level of climate hazard fisheries are exposed to and the socioeconomic vulnerability adaptive capacity of difference components of the fishery. The four coastal wilayats identified as being most at risk from climate change impacts on fisheries are Ja’alan Banī Bū Hassan, Salālah, Mutrah and Al-Jāzer. Page ii Ja’alan Banī Bū Hassan is most exposed to climate risk due to the high socio-economic vulnerability, the limited diversity of species caught and high exposure to increasing temperature and cyclone risk. Salālah is at increased risk due to high species sensitivity and low diversity of catches, Mutrah has high risk due to species sensitivity and exposure to climate hazards, and Al-Jāzer was identified as being at increased risk due to low species diversity, moderate species sensitivity and exposure to climate impacts. The dhow hand line, troll line and fish trap fisheries in Batinah and Muscat Governorates are identified as most at risk due to high values for all components of the risk assessment – socio- economic vulnerability, sensitivity of the target species, limited diversity in catches and high exposure to climate hazards. The industrial and coastal fishery are the most capital-intensive fleets and show strong socio- economic resilience to climate change, and low risk overall. The aquaculture climate risk assessment took account of species’ thermal sensitivity, exposure to sea level rise and storm surge, hazard of low oxygen exposure and disease vulnerability. Due to the early stage of development of aquaculture in Oman, the risk assessment was based on future projections of aquaculture production. Shrimp aquaculture is identified as most at risk due to vulnerability of shrimp ponds to flooding and storm surges and due disease exposure, even though whiteleg shrimp have low thermal sensitivity to the direct temperature impacts of climate change. Flood and storm surge risk will vary between sites depending on the exact setting of each shrimp farm. Gilthead bream, which is already being farmed in Muscat Governorate, also has a moderately high overall risk score. This is due to high scores for thermal sensitivity and exposure to low oxygen hazard. This analysis does not provide a quantitative estimate of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture; however, it identifies priority climate change associated risk factors for different sectors of the Oman’s fisheries and aquaculture sector. Climate change is happening; implementing targeted adaptation and resilience building measures is necessary to protect the food production, livelihoods, investments and supply chains that are dependent on productive fisheries and aquaculture. Page iii Table of Contents 1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 9 2 Climate Vulnerability Assessments (CVAs) ....................................................................... 10 3 Climate Change and the marine environment in Oman ................................................... 13 4 Introduction to the fisheries and aquaculture in Oman ................................................... 16 5 Fisheries Assessment - Methods ....................................................................................... 20 5.1 Species Sensitivity [S] .................................................................................................... 22 5.2 Fisheries Exposure [E] ................................................................................................... 25 5.3 Fisheries Vulnerability [V] ............................................................................................. 26 5.4 Meteorological Hazard [H] ............................................................................................ 29 5.5 Construction of the overall ‘risk’ metric [R] .................................................................. 34 6 Fisheries Assessment - Fishing Fleets Results ................................................................... 34 6.1 Species Sensitivity [S] .................................................................................................... 34 6.2 Fisheries Exposure [E] ................................................................................................... 37 6.3 Fisheries Vulnerability [V] ............................................................................................. 37 6.4 Meteorological Hazard [H] ............................................................................................ 38 6.5 Overall Risk Score .......................................................................................................... 38 7 Fisheries Assessment - Coastal Districts (wilayats) Results .............................................. 42 7.1 Species Sensitivity [S] .................................................................................................... 42 7.2 Fisheries Exposure [E] ................................................................................................... 42 7.3 Fisheries Vulnerability [V] ............................................................................................. 45 7.4 Meteorological Hazard [H] ............................................................................................ 47 7.5 Overall Risk Score .......................................................................................................... 48 8 Aquaculture Assessment ................................................................................................... 52 8.1 Species included ............................................................................................................ 52 8.2 Sensitivity to thermal stress .......................................................................................... 54 8.3 Exposure to flooding and storm surge .......................................................................... 56 8.4 Hazard from low-oxygen levels ....................................................................................
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