DOCSLIB.ORG

POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Document # 4

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Document # 4 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Document # 4 Political Weather Forecast© Platform for competing views and decent debate The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Measurement at the starting point of the Election campaign Released on: March 4, 2013 Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan is not related to Gallup Inc. headquartered in Washington D.C. USA. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup Pakistan (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). We disclaim any responsibility for surveys pertaining to Pakistani public opinion except those carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International Association. For details on Gallup International Association see website: www.gallup- international.com and www.gallup.com.pk. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development And Transparency – PILDAT (www.pildat.org) is an indigenous, independent, not-for-profit, non- partisan political think tank working to strengthen democracy and democratic instituons in Pakistan since 2001. Page | 1 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 WHO ARE WE? Gallup-Pildat Political Weather Forecast© A platform for competing views and decent debate This study is being presented jointly by Gallup Pakistan and PILDAT. Gallup Pakistan is providing findings from an unsponsored survey conducted by Gallup as part of its public service program. PILDAT is providing its facilities and communications platform on a gratis basis to generate meaningful discussion and dialogue. The common objective of Gallup-Pildat Poll is to introduce a joint nonpartisan platform for discussing issues related to Election 2013. Caution to Readers of Political Weather Forecast© We attempt to make scientific forecast of electoral outcome. However, despite their scientific methodology political forecasts are as ‘uncertain’ as weather forecasts. Structural hazards in political and physical weather bear many similarities. ALL READERS ARE THEREFORE CAUTIONED TO READ THESE FORECASTS AT THEIR OWN RISK! Political Weather Forecasts can be helpful but they are by no means definitive on electoral outcomes in Pakistan in 2013. They can only be a guideline for decent debate and deliberation. Page | 2 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 C o n t e n t s POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST AND VOTING INTENTIONS IN 11 ELECTORAL TERRITORIES OF PAKISTAN Page # Who are We? 2 Acronyms and Definitions 3 Part 1 Highlights 4 Part 2 Main Findings 8 List of Tables: Table 1 Consolidated National Score of Leading Players 13 Table 2 Regions of Continuity and Change 14 Table 3 Imran Khan G-E Gap 15 List of Figures: Fig. 1 All Pakistan Voting Intentions 21 Fig. 2 Punjab Voting Intentions 21 Fig. 3 Sindh Voting Intentions 22 Fig. 4 KPK Voting Intentions 22 Fig. 5 Balochistan Voting Intentions 23 Appendices Appendix 1: Consolidated Voting Intentions 24 Appendix 2: Gallup-Pildat Poll Analytical Charts 27 Appendix 3: Research Methodology 31 Page | 3 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Definitions and Acronyms 1- Eleven Electoral Territories The Pakistani electorate elects 272 Members to the National Assembly of Pakistan on the election day for as many constituencies. A given number of members are later elected by the chosen house. We have grouped the 272 constituencies into 11 electoral territories, 3 in Punjab, 2 in Sindh, 4 in KPK and 2 in Balochistan. The groups have been carved on the basis of historical patterns of voting during the last 20 years. Each of the 11 territories exhibits a certain type of uniformity in it, specially in terms of key contesting parties. While each territory has internal similarity, it is dissimilar from the others. The table at the end of this document provides evidence to this thesis. The geographical scope of each electoral territory is as below: Geographic Scope of the 11 Electoral Territories Electoral Territory Number and Name Constituting Administrative Divisions Electoral Territory # 1: Punjab 1: Rawalpindi, Gujranwala and Lahore Divisions National Assembly Seats: 69 Percent of 272 contested seats: 25.3% Northern-Central Punjab Electoral Territory # 2: Punjab 2: Faisalabad and Sargodha Divisions National Assembly Seats: 31 Western Punjab Percent of 272 contested seats: 11.4% Electoral Territory # 3: Punjab 3: Bahawalpur, DG Khan and Multan Divisions National Assembly Seats: 50 Percent of 272 contested seats: 18.4% South Punjab Page | 4 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Electoral Territory # 4: Sindh 1: Karachi Division National Assembly Seats: 20 Karachi Percent of 272 contested seats: 7.4% Electoral Territory # 5: Sindh 2: Hyderabad, Larkana, Mir Pur Khas and Sukkur Divisions National Assembly Seats: 41 Percent of 272 contested seats: 15.1% Rest of Sindh Electoral Territory # 6: KPK 1: Malakand Division National Assembly Seats: 8 Northern KPK Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.9% Electoral Territory # 7: KPK 2: Bannu, DI Khan and Kohat Divisions National Assembly Seats: 19 South KPK Percent of 272 contested seats: 7.0% Electoral Territory # 8: KPK 3: Peshawar and Mardan Divisions National Assembly Seats: 13 KPK Peshawar Valley Percent of 272 contested seats: 4.8% Electoral Territory # 9: KPK 4: Hazara Division National Assembly Seats: 7 KPK Hazara Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.6% Electoral Territory # 10: Balochistan 1: Quetta and Zhob Divisions National Assembly Seats: 6 Quetta-Zhob Zone Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.2% Electoral Territory # 11: Balochistan 2: Kalat, Makran, Nasir Abad and Sibi Divisions National Assembly Seats: 8 Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.9% Kalat-Makran Zone Page | 5 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 2- February 2013 Forecast by Gallup-Pildat Poll These forecasts are based on a nation-wide poll on voting intentions in approximately 300 villages and 200 urban locations in all provinces and regions of the country. Detailed methodology is provided in the document. 3- Consolidated Forecast by Political Weather Forecast (PWF) The PWF forecast is computed by averaging the findings of two polls conducted by two separate organisations during the last 3 months. The consolidated figure is an average of the poll reported by IRI (as appeared in the media) and the poll conducted in January-February 2013 by Gallup Pakistan. 4- Gilani’s Index of Electoral Record: 1993-2008 This Index is based on data provided by the Election Commission of Pakistan for all national elections conducted during 1993-2008. The purpose of the Index is to measure consolidated voting patterns for all elections during this period. The consolidated voting pattern emerging from 4 National Elections over a period of 20 years provides a guideline to understand and interpret the latest forecasts. Details on this Index are available separately. 5- Three Drivers of Change in conventional (historically rooted) electoral patterns: Experts at Gallup Pakistan have developed three indicators which bear on political weather and can cause shifts in electoral behavior under certain conditions. Those are the following: Page | 6 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 a- Popularity-Electability Gap: (PE Gap) This Index is computed by measuring 2 variables. The first estimates the popularity of a party’s leader; the second estimates the vote bank of the party at the constituency level. The difference of the two is called Popularity- Electability Gap. b- Alliance Potential Index: All voters are surveyed on their first choice in the forthcoming electoral contest and the second choice. The second choice provides an indication of the acceptability of that party to the voter under certain conditions. This figure is taken as the Alliance Value or Index of that party. c- Acceptability Gap: Acceptability Gap measures the level of voter’s net hostility among voters about a political party. If the positive value of voting intention in favor of a party is greater than hostility against it (voters saying they will never vote for it), the Index gives a positive value on Ability to Govern. This means that irrespective of the size of its vote bank, it enjoys Acceptability to Govern. If the value of hostility is higher than the value of voting intention, the Index provides a Negative Value. Negative value indicates the possibility of voters casting their strategic vote for a competing party, not for the love of it, but to defeat the party that invokes their hostility. It also shows that irrespective of the size of its vote bank, the party has wide Unacceptability to Govern the country. Page | 7 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 All three indices provide important background information for intelligent and decent debate on expected outcome of the forthcoming election. 6- Acronyms for Party Names: ANP Awami National Party FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas MNA Member National Assembly MQM Muttahidda Quami Movement KP Khyber Pakhtunkhawa Province PML-Q/O Pakistan Muslim League Q/Other Groups PML-N Pakistan Muslim League -Nawaz PPP Pakistan Peoples Party PTI Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf JI Jamat-e-Islami JUI-F/MMA Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (F) / MMA PAT Pakistan Awami Tahreek PWF Political Weather Forecast IND Independent Candidate Page | 8 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 7- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1- Sample Size: 9,660 2- Scope of Sample: The sample is representative of Male and Female adult (Age 18+) population of Pakistan. The sample represents both rural and urban areas of
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Muslim Nationalism, State Formation and Legal Representations of the Ahmadiyya Community in Pakistan
    Politics of Exclusion: Muslim Nationalism, State Formation and Legal Representations of the Ahmadiyya Community in Pakistan by Sadia Saeed A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Sociology) in The University of Michigan 2010 Doctoral Committee: Professor George P. Steinmetz, Chair Professor Howard A. Kimeldorf Associate Professor Fatma Muge Gocek Associate Professor Genevieve Zubrzycki Professor Mamadou Diouf, Columbia University © Sadia Saeed 2010 2 Dedication This dissertation is dedicated to my parents with my deepest love, respect and gratitude for the innumerable ways they have supported my work and choices. ii Acknowledgements I would like to begin by acknowledging the immense support my parents have given me every step of the way during my (near) decade in graduate school. I have dedicated this dissertation to them. My ammi and baba have always believed in my capabilities to accomplish not only this dissertation but much more in life and their words of love and encouragement have continuously given me the strength and the will to give my research my very best. My father‘s great enthusiasm for this project, his intellectual input and his practical help and advice during the fieldwork of this project have been formative to this project. I would like to thank my dissertation advisor George Steinmetz for the many engaged conversations about theory and methods, for always pushing me to take my work to the next level and above all for teaching me to recognize and avoid sloppiness, caricatures and short-cuts. It is to him that I owe my greatest intellectual debt.
    [Show full text]
  • Political Advocacy and Outreach Support for Transforming Education in Pakistan (TEP) Phase-II
    Political Advocacy and Outreach Support for Transforming Education in Pakistan (TEP) Phase-II All Parties Conference April 24, 2014 District: Hyderabad All Parties Conference Contents District Hyderabad Table of Contents Context and Background ........................................................................................................................... 2 1. Registration of the Participants ..................................................................................................... 2 2. Recitation of the Holy Quran and Welcome Note ........................................................................ 2 3. Presentation on Educational Issues in Hyderabad ........................................................................ 2 4. Perspectives of Participants .......................................................................................................... 3 5. Vote of Thanks ............................................................................................................................. 5 Annex I- Photo Gallery ............................................................................................................................... 6 Annex II- List of Participants .................................................................................................................... 7 Annex III- Media Coverage ....................................................................................................................... 9 Institute of Social and Policy Sciences (I-SAPS) 1 | P a g e All
    [Show full text]
  • National Integration: Challenges and Options for Pakistan
    JSSA Vol. VII, No. 1 Muhammad Nawaz Khan National Integration: Challenges and Options for Pakistan Muhammad Nawaz Khan1 Abstract National integration solidifies the foundation of nationhood, which is crucial for national security against internal and external challenges. The study argues that there is a thin line between centripetal and centrifugal forces, which stimulates unfavorable environment having specific characteristic and features. Therefore, the multiplicity of languages, races, ethnicities, and sects are being influenced from that particular environment, which may serve both as ingredients of national integration and disintegration. Based on secondary review of academic sources, this study discusses that the issues such as leadership dilemma, bad governance, socio-economic disparity, ethno-cultural polarization, sub- nationalist politics, fragile national unity under federalism, extremism, national identity crisis and modernity confusion are the main challenges to Pakistan’s efforts of national integration. It also suggests ways and means to address the issues of national integration. Keywords: Two-nation Theory, Socialism, Enlightened Moderation, Muslim Identity, National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, National 1 Mr. Muhammad Nawaz Khan is a Research Associate, Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI), Islamabad. 34 National Integration: Challenges and Options for Pakistan Action Plan, 18th Amendment, Aghaz-e-Haqooq-e-Balochistan, China- Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Introduction “National integration indicates national
    [Show full text]
  • Politics of Sindh Under Zia Government an Analysis of Nationalists Vs Federalists Orientations
    POLITICS OF SINDH UNDER ZIA GOVERNMENT AN ANALYSIS OF NATIONALISTS VS FEDERALISTS ORIENTATIONS A Thesis Doctor of Philosophy By Amir Ali Chandio 2009 Department of Political Science & International Relations Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan POLITICS OF SINDH UNDER ZIA GOVERNMENT AN ANALYSIS OF NATIONALISTS VS FEDERALISTS ORIENTATIONS A Thesis Doctor of Philosophy By Amir Ali Chandio 2009 Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Ishtiaq Ahmed Chaudhry Department of Political Science & International Relations Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan Dedicated to: Baba Bullay Shah & Shah Abdul Latif Bhittai The poets of love, fraternity, and peace DECLARATION This thesis is the result of my own investigations, except where otherwise stated. Other sources are acknowledged by giving explicit references. A bibliography is appended. This work has not previously been accepted in substance for any degree and is not being concurrently submitted in candidature for any degree. Signed………………………………………………………………….( candidate) Date……………………………………………………………………. CERTIFICATES This is to certify that I have gone through the thesis submitted by Mr. Amir Ali Chandio thoroughly and found the whole work original and acceptable for the award of the degree of Doctorate in Political Science. To the best of my knowledge this work has not been submitted anywhere before for any degree. Supervisor Professor Dr. Ishtiaq Ahmed Choudhry Department of Political Science & International Relations Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan Chairman Department of Political Science & International Relations Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan. ABSTRACT The nationalist feelings in Sindh existed long before the independence, during British rule. The Hur movement and movement of the separation of Sindh from Bombay Presidency for the restoration of separate provincial status were the evidence’s of Sindhi nationalist thinking.
    [Show full text]
  • Sindhi Ethno-National Movement: Question of Provincial Autonomy
    Sindhi Ethno-national Movement: Question of Provincial Autonomy * Sultan Mubariz Khan ** Muhammad Mushtaq Abstract Success or failure of negotiations between the ethnic groups and the state play a vital role in changing the demands of ethno-national groups, which oscillate between secession and autonomy. Ephraim Nimni has observed that in the present era the growing consciousness can be witnessed among multinational states for transfer of power to regional governments often formed by minority groups and increasing number of ethno-nationalist movements have been demanding their national rights within the jurisdiction of multinational states by devolution of powers. Monsterrat Guibernau has concluded that devolution in cultural, economic and political spheres had successfully deterred the secessionist movements in Canada, Spain and Britain though strengthened the sense of distinctive cultural identity in the regions benefited by devolution. According to Donald Horowitz some ethnic groups are constrained to demand outright secession because they co-habit the territory with other nations or ethnic groups and could not develop congruence of views with those groups regarding the goals to be pursued. Michel Seymour is of the opinion that geo-political reasons and mutually advantageous economic ties with other regions of the multinational states have also been causal factors for the debilitation of the separatist movements.1 These factors have influenced the ideology of Sindhi nationalist movement which is presently striving for autonomous status within the federal structure of Pakistan. The article examines the developments that consolidated a sense of ethno-national identity amongst indigenous Sindhis and simultaneously debilitated the separatist movement often known as „Sindhudesh‟. Sindhi Ethno-national Movement: Question of Provincial Autonomy 33 Introduction The sense of identify among Sindhi community emerged before the establishment of Pakistan.
    [Show full text]
  • Religious Thought and National Integration in Pakistan Centre For
    i Religious Thought and National Integration in Pakistan MUHAMMAD NADEEM SHAH Ph.D: Roll No. 03 Session: - 2007 Supervisor PROF. DR. UMBREEN JAVAID Centre for South Asian Studies University of the Punjab, Quaid-i-Azam Campus, Lahore. ii Religious Thought and National Integration in Pakistan A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment for the requirement for Degree of Ph.D in Centre for South Asian Studies, University of the Punjab, Lahore. Supervisor Submitted by Prof. Dr. Umbreen Javaid Muhammad Nadeem Shah H.E.C. Nominee Roll No. 03 Centre for South Asian Studies Ph.D University of the Punjab, Lahore. Session: 2007 Centre for South Asian Studies University of the Punjab Quaid-i-Azam Campus Lahore. iii DEDICATED TO My Mother and the memory of my Father, the late, Ghulam Sarwar Shah iv DECLARATION I hereby declare that this Ph.D. thesis, titled as “Religious Thought and National Integration in Pakistan” is the result of my individual research and I have not submitted this thesis concurrently to any other University or Institution for any degree whatsoever. MUHAMMAD NADEEM SHAH v CERTIFICATE This is to certify that the research carried out in this thesis is an original work. I have personally gone through all the material reported and certify its correctness. Material included in this thesis has not been submitted in partial or full for the award of any other degree from any other institution. I endorse its evaluation for the award of Ph.D degree through official procedure of the University. PROF. DR. UMBREEN JAVAID vi CONTENTS Sr. No. Page No.
    [Show full text]
  • Brief History of Awami Tahreek -.:: GEOCITIES.Ws
    BBRRIIEEFF HHIISSTTOORRYY OOFF AAWWAAMMII TTAAHHRREEEEKK The History of Revolutionary Political, Educational & Cultural struggles of Awami Tahreek (Peoples Movement) & its Founders. SSiinnddhhii AAwwaammii ee--BBooookkss 2 1960 to 1969 1. 1960 to 1966: Struggle for awareness of Sindhi Nation from the platforms of Sindh Hari Committee and National Awami Party. 2. 1960: Mr. Rasool Bux Palijo founder and president of Awami Tahreek played an active part in the activities and struggles of National Awami Party. 3. 1967 January: Sindhi Sham at Jamshoro Engineering College. Rasool Bux Palijo presented, somewhat shocking facts about role of Bin Qasim, Raja Dahir, Dodo Soomro, Doolah Darya Khan and others 4. 1967: Awami Tahreek Chief Rasool Bux Palijo resisted extremist movement against poetry of Shaikh Ayaz and progressive literature by writing a book: 'Andha Oondha Weja'. 5. 04-03-1967: SaeeN Palijo Planned, led and guided the first organized struggle of Sindhi students, provided legal and mass support for imprisoned students. 6. 1967 Jeejee Zareena Baloch and SaeeN Rasool Bux Palijo introduced the new trend of revolutionary and nationalist songs and poetry in Sindh- a new wave of nationalism. 7. 1968: SaeeN Palijo played an important leading role in the establishment of 'Bazm-e-Soofia-e-Sindh. 8. 1968 December: SaeeN Palijo and other comrades organized the memorable and unique protest of Sindhi intellectuals in Hyderabad. 9. 1968: SaeeN Palijo and other founder members of Awami Tahreek led and participated in the mass movement for restoration of democracy. th 10. 04-03-1969 on the second anniversary of 4 March SaeeN Palijo and other comrades arranged the historical protest of thousands of Protestants against One Unit in Hyderabad and took the struggle to its successful result against the ruler General Ayub Khan.
    [Show full text]
  • Dilemma of Political Culture: Case Study of Pakistan (1988-1997)
    DILEMMA OF POLITICAL CULTURE: CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN (1988-1997) Ph.D. Dissertation Submitted By: Muhammad Javaid Akhter Department of Pakistan Studies Bahauddin Zakariya University Multan Supervised By: Prof. Dr. Khawaja Alqama Prof. Dr. Khurram Qadir i CONTENTS Acknowledgement Abstract Glossary CHAPTER- 1: P.1 INTRODUCTION 1.1. Understanding of the Terminologies: 1.1.1 Politics: 1.1.2 Political: 1.1.3 Culture: 1 .1.4 Dilemma: 1.1.5 Political Culture: 1.1.5.1. Political Culture and its Components: i. Cognitive Orientation; ii. Affective Orientation; iii. Evaluative Orientation; 1.1.5.2. Types of Political Culture: i. Parochial Political Culture; ii. Subject Political Culture; iii. Participant Political Culture; 1.2. Genesis of the Problem: 1.3. Study of Sources: 1.4. Methodology: 1.5. The Scheme of Chapters: 1.5.1. Political Parties’ Structure and Their Elections’ Manifestos: 1.5.2. Electoral Politics of Pakistan: 1.5.3. Electoral Politics in North West Frontier Province: 1.5.4. Electoral Politics in Punjab: ii 1.5.5. Electoral Politics in Sindh: 1.5.6. Electoral Politics in Baluchistan: Conclusion CHAPTER- 2: P. 43 POLITICAL PARTIES’ STRUCTURE AND THEIR ELECTIONS’ MANIFESTOS 2.1. Conceptual Study of Political Party 2.2. Description of Political Milieu of Pakistan 2.3. Genesis of Pakistan Muslim League and its Alliance Islami Jamhoori Ittehad(IJI) 2.4. Pakistan Peoples Party/Peoples Democratic Alliance (PPP/PDA): 2.4.1. Party’s Structure; 2.5. Muttahida Qaumi Movement/Haq Prast Group (MQM/HPG) 2.6. Genesis of Jammiat Ulamma-i-Islam- Fazal-ur-Rehman JUI(F): 2.6.1.
    [Show full text]
  • Politics of Sindh Under Zia Government by Amir Ali Chandio
    POLITICS OF SINDH UNDER ZIA GOVERNMENT BY AMIR ALI CHANDIO REPRODUCED BY SANI H. PANHWAR POLITICS OF SINDH UNDER ZIA GOVERNMENT1 AN ANALYSIS OF NATIONALISTS VS FEDERALISTS ORIENTATIONS By Amir Ali Chandio 2009 Reproduced by Sani H. Panhwar 1 A T hesisforDoctorofP hilosophy DepartmentofP oliticalS cience& InternationalR elations.T histhesisisthe resultofauthor'sown investigations,exceptw hereotherwisestated.O thersourcesareacknowledgedby giving explicitreferences.A bibliographyisappended.S upervisor:P rof.Dr.IshtiaqAhmedChaudhry Dedicated to: Baba Bullay Shah & Shah Abdul Latif Bhittai The poets of love, fraternity, and peace ABSTRACT The nationalist feelings in Sindh existed long before the independence, during British rule. The Hur movement and movement of the separation of Sindh from Bombay Presidency for the restoration of separate provincial status were the evidence’s of Sindhi nationalist thinking. After the restoration of the provincial status of Sindh the politics of province dominated by the nationalist or provincial parties. The result of 1937 elections showed that country level parties such as All India Muslim League and Indian National Congress could not success to win the elections in Sindh. Even Muslim League did not achieve a single seat. After the guarantees of the provincial autonomy and sovereign status to the units in Lahore Resolution 1940, the politician of Sindh supported Pakistan with the hope that after the independence their identification as well as their legitimate rights would be protected. But unfortunately their hopes could not fulfill the requisites requirements of federalism such as grant of provincial autonomy to federating units, supremacy of constitution, democratic and participatory political system and independent judiciary. Unfortunately the parameters of the federation had been undermined by the civil and military bureaucracy of Pakistan since the day of its independence.
    [Show full text]
  • Cascades of Violence War, Crime and Peacebuilding Across South Asia
    CASCADES OF VIOLENCE WAR, CRIME AND PEACEBUILDING ACROSS SOUTH ASIA CASCADES OF VIOLENCE WAR, CRIME AND PEACEBUILDING ACROSS SOUTH ASIA JOHN BRAITHWAITE AND BINA D’COSTA Published by ANU Press The Australian National University Acton ACT 2601, Australia Email: [email protected] Available to download for free at press.anu.edu.au A catalogue record for this book is available from the National Library of Australia ISBN (print): 9781760461898 ISBN (online): 9781760461904 WorldCat (print): 1031051140 WorldCat (online): 1031374482 DOI: 10.22459/CV.02.2018 This title is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0). The full licence terms are available at creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode Cover design and layout by ANU Press. Cover image by Eli Vokounova, ‘Flow by Lucid Light’. This edition © 2018 ANU Press Contents Boxes and tables . vii Figures, maps and plates . ix Abbreviations . xiii Foreign terms . xix Preface . xxi Part I: Cascades on a broad canvas 1 . Introduction: Cascades of war and crime . 3 2 . Transnational cascades . 37 3 . Towards a micro–macro understanding of cascades . 93 4 . Cascades of domination . 135 Part II: South Asian cascades 5 . Recognising cascades in India and Kashmir . 177 6 . Mapping conflicts in Pakistan: State in turmoil . 271 7 . Macro to micro cascades: Bangladesh . .. 321 8 . Crime–war in Sri Lanka . 363 9 . Cascades to peripheries of South Asia . 393 Part III: Refining understanding of cascades 10 . Evaluating the propositions . 451 11 . Cascades of resistance to violence and domination . 487 12 . Conclusion: Cascades and complexity .
    [Show full text]
  • 8. Nationalist Political Parties, Sajid Khan
    Nationalist Parties in Electoral Politics of Sindh Muhammad Sajid Khan ∗ Abstract Sindhi nationalism emerged with narrative of marginalization, exploitation and threat of domination. The continuous waves of migration since 1947 further sharpened this consciousness, created polarization in Sindh and curtailed the process of assimilation. The ethno-linguistic and cultural identity markers surfaced as an agent in shaping the political landscape. The political actors were forced to use nationalist symbols and idioms to lure masses. The Pakistan Peoples’ Party, despite its predominantly centralist character, responded to popular aspirations of Sindhi nationalism and maintained its dual and sometimes conflicting or divergent image of centralist and regional political force to consolidate its popular support base and effectively applied its Sindh card for mass political mobilization. Despite their radical popular appeal and agenda and presence of prominent figures like G.M. Syed, Ayub Khuro and Rasool Bakhsh Palijo, The Sindhi nationalist political forces failed to translate their electoral support to defeat the MQM in urban Sindh, and its counterparts; the ANP in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and the nationalist parties of Balochistan. They did not succeed in evolving an umbrella organization and it ∗ Ph.D. Scholar, Department of History, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad and Lecturer in Department of History, Govt. Postgraduate College Asghar Mall, Rawalpindi. 144 Pakistan Journal of History and Culture, Vol. XXXVIII, No.1, 2017 remained personal network of loyalist without elaborate party structure. The parties were unable to perform in electoral sphere. They, however, sometimes opted to abstain from electoral process and at times joined electoral alliances with ideological rival centralist or Punjab dominated political forces to counter the PPP.
    [Show full text]
  • The Failure of Police Reform in Pakistan: What Police Order 2002 Reveals About the Challenges Confronting Democratic Consolidation
    The Failure of Police Reform in Pakistan: What Police Order 2002 reveals about the challenges confronting democratic consolidation Author Siddiqi, Huma Published 2020-07-02 Thesis Type Thesis (PhD Doctorate) School School of Govt & Int Relations DOI https://doi.org/10.25904/1912/875 Copyright Statement The author owns the copyright in this thesis, unless stated otherwise. Downloaded from http://hdl.handle.net/10072/395528 Griffith Research Online https://research-repository.griffith.edu.au Griffith Business School Submitted in fulfilment of the requirement of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Huma Shazia Siddiqi January 2020 1 The Failure of Police Reform in Pakistan: What Police Order 2002 reveals about the challenges confronting democratic consolidation Huma Shazia Siddiqi MPhil (Government and Public Policy) Centre for Government and International Relations Griffith Business School, Nathan Campus. Griffith University The thesis is submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy January 2020 2 Synopsis This thesis studies a 2002 attempt to fundamentally reform the Pakistan Police Service (PSP) through the promulgation of Police Order 2002. This reform was aimed at converting the PSP from an instrument of coercive government to a force responsive to and protective of the citizenry. It constituted, as its introduction explicitly stated, a significant move toward democratic consolidation in Pakistan. PO 2002 was introduced nationwide on 14 August 2002 with wide support from Pakistani elites and under the direction of the autocratic but reform-oriented government of General Pervez Musharraf. Yet PO 2002 failed. It was amended in 2004 and annulled in 2010. Understanding why it failed is important for understanding the challenges confronting democratising developing states, like Pakistan.
    [Show full text]