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RISE AND DECLINE OF ETHNO-NATIONAL MOVEMENTS OF PAKISTAN: DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FACTORS by TAHIR AMIN M.SC., International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, 1976 M.A., International Relations, Carleton University, Ottawa, 1978 Submitted to the Department of Political Science in Partial Fullfillment of the Requirements of the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN POLITICAL SCIENCE February 1988 c Tahir Amin 1987 Signature redacted Signature of Author Department of Political Science Si gnature red acted October, 1987 Certified by - Professor Myron Weiner Thesis Supervisor Signature redacted Accepted by I Harvey $. Sapolsky, Chairman Graddate Program Committee MASSACHUSETTS IN$TI1E OF TEHNOLOGY MAR 14 1988 UWI ARCHIVES TO IEESHA, SIDRA AND FURQAN Acknowledgements In completing this study, I am most grateful to my thesis committee: Professor Myron Weiner (Chairman), Professor Hayward R. Alker Jr. and Professor Nazli Choucri. They provided me with invaluable comments on every stage of this study. I am also thankful to Dr. Anwar Syed who went through the first four chapters of the study and gave thorough comments. I am also indebted to the Institute of Policy Studies, Islamabad for allowing me to freely use the facilities at the Institute during my field trips to Pakistan. I also thank Tobie Weiner for typing this manuscript with great care. Finally, I wish to thank King Faisal Foundation of Saudi Ministry of Higher Education for funding my study at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. RISE AND DECLINE OF ETHNO-NATIONAL MOVEMENTS OF PAKISTAN: DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL FACTORS by TAHIR AMIN ABSTRACT The rise of ethno-national movement as a global phenomenon has attracted significant attention from social scientists but not the decline. Post-1971 Pakistan represents an excellent case-study to examine both the rise and the decline of the ethno-national movements. This thesis focuses on the three movements: the Pushtunistan movement, the Jeeya Sind movement, and the Baluch movement. The Pushtunistan movement which was a powerful mass-based movement prior to the creation of Pakistan began to decline in the post-independence era. The Jeeya Sind movement and the Baluch movement have significantly emerged on the Pakistani political scene in the contemporary period 1978-1987. The central question addressed in this dissertation is: what domestic and international factors have been responsible for the rise and decline of these movements? The dominant thrust of the theoretical literature of nationalism and comparative ethnicity has until recently been on society-centered explanations. The theorists, focusing their attention on the ethnic groups, have mainly emphasized factors of social change at the group level broadly associated with the process of modernization. The post- modernization writers, noting the inadequacies of the modernization perspective, have now begun to emphasize the role of the context, especially the state as a primary causal factor in understanding the variations in the course of ethno-national movements. This shift from the society-centered explanations to the state-centered explanations is in accord with the mainstream political.science literature on the role of the state. We present two sets of arguments in this dissertation: (1) In an analytic-empirical mode, our argument is that the explanation for the rise and decline of the movements primarily lies in the domestic and international political context. Among the domestic factors, it is the political policy of the state elite which is the most important factor in determining both the rise and decline of the movements. If the policy of the state elite leads to the greater power-sharing among the ethnic groups, the movements are likely to decline. Conversely, if the policy aims at the monopolization of power by certain ethnic groups, the groups excluded from the power-sharing arrangements begin to formulate secessionist ideologies leading to the rise of the movement. The policies of the state elite and their consequences are the major catalysts of changes at the group level. Ethnic elites' perceptions and strategies of political mobilization are largely determined in reaction to the policies of the state elite. Among the international factors, three factors, transnational influences, activities of coethnics living in the adjacent countries or abroad, and the policies of the foreign states also play a role in influencing the course of the movements. However, the international factors play a secondary role and reinforce the trends generated by the domestic factors. Our second set of arguments is in an interpretative vein and relates to the ideologies of state. The proponents of state admit that the states cannot be divorced from their broader cultural context, but they do not pay enough attention to state-ideologies. The focus on the state ideologies allows an analyst to cut across such analytic distinctions as state/society and national/international. We note the relevance of three ideologies, liberalism, Marxism, and Islam, three transnational cultural traditions, to our case study, and argue that the perceptions, attitudes, actions and reactions of both the state elite as well as the ethnic elites cannot be adequately understood without understanding these alternative cultural traditions. Thesis Supervisor: Dr. Myron Weiner Title: Ford International Professor of Political Science TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION Page 1.1. Problem 1 1.2. Significance of the Problem 3 1.3. Central Argument 8 1.4. Relevance of Three Traditions 12 1.5. Methodology 15 1.6. Organization of the Study 16 CHAPTER II: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 23 2.1. Review of the Literature on Nationalism and Ethnicity Liberalism (a) Traditional Writers 24 (b) Modernization Theorists 28 (c) Post-Modernization Theorists 37 2.2. Marxism (a) Traditional Writers 41 (b) Modernization Theorists 43 (c) Post-Modernization Theorists 49 2.3. Islam (a) Traditional Writers 52 (b) Modernization Theorists 55 (c) Post-Modernization Theorists 59 2.4. Summary 61 CHAPTER III: ORIGINS OF THE MOVEMENTS: THE LIBERAL PHASE 1947-1970 70 3.1. Peoples and Geography 73 3.2. Pakistan Movement and Regional Loyalties: PrePartition Legacy 78 3.3. State Elite Versus Ethnic Elites: Conflicting Perceptions 85 3.4. Liberal Pakistan: Background 91 (a) Ayub's Perceptions 94 (b) State Elite 96 3.5. Perspective from Center: Policies - An Overview 97 (a) Political 98 (b) Cultural 99 (c) Economic 100 (d) Consequences 100 3.6. Perspective from the Provinces: The Movements 103 N.W.F.P.: The Pushtunistan Movement (a) Organization 104 (b) Ideology and Strategy 106 (c) Social Base Sind: The Jeeya Sind Movement (a) Organization 109 (b) Ideology and Strategy 110 (c) Social Base 111 Baluchistan: The Baluch Movement (a) Organization 112 (b) Ideology and Strategy 113 (c) Social Base 114 3.7 International Factors 115 (a) Transnational Influences 115 (b) Activities of Coethnics 117 (c) Policies of Foreign Governments 118 3.8 Summary 124 CHAPTER IV: EVOLUTION OF THE MOVEMENTS: THE SOCIALIST PHASE 1971-1977 4.1 Socialist Pakistan: Background 140 (a) Bhutto's Rise to Power 144 (b) Bhutto's Perceptions 145 (c) PPP 147 4.2 State Elite Versus Ethnic Elites: Short-Lived Federalism 148 4.3 Perspective from the Center: Policies: An Overview 156 (a) Political 157 (b) Cultural 159 (c) Economic 160 (d) Consequences 161 4.4 Perspective from the Provinces Movements 164 N.W.F.P.: Pushtunistan Movement (a) Organization 164 (b) Ideology and Strategy 167 (c) Social Base 169 Sind: Jeeya Sind Movement (a) Organization 172 (b) Ideology and Strategy 174 (c) Social Base 176 Baluchistan: Baluch Movement (a) Organization 177 (b) Ideology and Strategy 179 (c) Social Base 180 4.5 International Factors 181 (a) Transnational Influences 181 (b) Activities of Coethnics 184 (c) Policies by Foreign Governments 185 4.6 Summary 189 CHAPTER V: RISE AND DECLINE OF THE MOVEMENTS: ISLAMIC PHASE 1977-1987 5.1 Islamic Pakistan: Background 204 (a) The Coup d'Etat of July 1977 204 (b) Zia-ul-Haq's Perceptions 206 (c) State Elite 208 5.2 Perspective from the Center Policies: An Overview 209 (a) Political 209 (b) Cultural 213 (c) Economic 214 (d) Consequences 215 5.3 Perspective from the Provinces: Movements 220 N.W.F.P.:Pushtunistan Movement (a) Organization 220 (b) Ideology and Strategy 221 (c) Social Base 224 Sind: Jeeya Sind Movement (a) Organization 229 (b) Ideology and Strategy 231 (c) Social Base 234 Baluchistan: Baluch Movement (a) Organization 237 (b) Ideology and Strategy 238 (c) Social Base 241 5.4 International Factors 243 (a) Transnational Influences 243 (b) Activities of Coethnics 245 (c) Policies of Foreign Governments 248 5.5 Summary 254 CHAPTER VI: WHY RISE AND DECLINE: EXPLANATIONS 267 6.1 Domestic Factors 270 6.2 International Factors 281 CHAPTER VII: CONCLUDING REFLECTIONS 293 7.1 Perspective from Alternative Cultural Traditions 294 7.2 Alternative Theoretical Explanations: Syntheses 302 7.3 Conclusions Summarized 308 Selected Bibliography 314 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Problem The rise of ethno-national movements as a global phenomena since the early 1970's has been attracting significant attention from social scientists as well as policy-makers. Both theoretical and empirical literature dealing with these movements continues to proliferate. 1 However, social scientists have paid little attention to the fact that some ethno-national movements in the recent history have declined as well. The Biafran movement in Nigeria, the Quebec movement in Canada, the Walloon movement in Belgium and the Pushtunistan movement in Pakistan are some of the salient cases of decline which have gone unnoticed.2 Post-1971 Pakistan represents an excellent case-study to examine both the rise as well as the decline of the ethno-national movements. This thesis focusses on the three ethno-national movements of Pakistan: (1) the Pushtunistan movement, (2) the Jeeya Sind movement and (3) the Baluch movement. The Pushtunistan movement which grew as a powerful mass-based movement prior to the creation of Pakistan, began to decline in the post-independence era.