The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Document # 4 Political Weather Forecast© Platform for competing views and decent debate The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Measurement at the starting point of the Election campaign Released on: March 4, 2013 Disclaimer: Gallup Pakistan is not related to Gallup Inc. headquartered in Washington D.C. USA. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup Pakistan (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). We disclaim any responsibility for surveys pertaining to Pakistani public opinion except those carried out by Gallup Pakistan, the Pakistani affiliate of Gallup International Association. For details on Gallup International Association see website: www.gallup- international.com and www.gallup.com.pk. Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development And Transparency – PILDAT (www.pildat.org) is an indigenous, independent, not-for-profit, non- partisan political think tank working to strengthen democracy and democratic instituons in Pakistan since 2001. Page | 1 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 WHO ARE WE? Gallup-Pildat Political Weather Forecast© A platform for competing views and decent debate This study is being presented jointly by Gallup Pakistan and PILDAT. Gallup Pakistan is providing findings from an unsponsored survey conducted by Gallup as part of its public service program. PILDAT is providing its facilities and communications platform on a gratis basis to generate meaningful discussion and dialogue. The common objective of Gallup-Pildat Poll is to introduce a joint nonpartisan platform for discussing issues related to Election 2013. Caution to Readers of Political Weather Forecast© We attempt to make scientific forecast of electoral outcome. However, despite their scientific methodology political forecasts are as ‘uncertain’ as weather forecasts. Structural hazards in political and physical weather bear many similarities. ALL READERS ARE THEREFORE CAUTIONED TO READ THESE FORECASTS AT THEIR OWN RISK! Political Weather Forecasts can be helpful but they are by no means definitive on electoral outcomes in Pakistan in 2013. They can only be a guideline for decent debate and deliberation. Page | 2 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 C o n t e n t s POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST AND VOTING INTENTIONS IN 11 ELECTORAL TERRITORIES OF PAKISTAN Page # Who are We? 2 Acronyms and Definitions 3 Part 1 Highlights 4 Part 2 Main Findings 8 List of Tables: Table 1 Consolidated National Score of Leading Players 13 Table 2 Regions of Continuity and Change 14 Table 3 Imran Khan G-E Gap 15 List of Figures: Fig. 1 All Pakistan Voting Intentions 21 Fig. 2 Punjab Voting Intentions 21 Fig. 3 Sindh Voting Intentions 22 Fig. 4 KPK Voting Intentions 22 Fig. 5 Balochistan Voting Intentions 23 Appendices Appendix 1: Consolidated Voting Intentions 24 Appendix 2: Gallup-Pildat Poll Analytical Charts 27 Appendix 3: Research Methodology 31 Page | 3 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Definitions and Acronyms 1- Eleven Electoral Territories The Pakistani electorate elects 272 Members to the National Assembly of Pakistan on the election day for as many constituencies. A given number of members are later elected by the chosen house. We have grouped the 272 constituencies into 11 electoral territories, 3 in Punjab, 2 in Sindh, 4 in KPK and 2 in Balochistan. The groups have been carved on the basis of historical patterns of voting during the last 20 years. Each of the 11 territories exhibits a certain type of uniformity in it, specially in terms of key contesting parties. While each territory has internal similarity, it is dissimilar from the others. The table at the end of this document provides evidence to this thesis. The geographical scope of each electoral territory is as below: Geographic Scope of the 11 Electoral Territories Electoral Territory Number and Name Constituting Administrative Divisions Electoral Territory # 1: Punjab 1: Rawalpindi, Gujranwala and Lahore Divisions National Assembly Seats: 69 Percent of 272 contested seats: 25.3% Northern-Central Punjab Electoral Territory # 2: Punjab 2: Faisalabad and Sargodha Divisions National Assembly Seats: 31 Western Punjab Percent of 272 contested seats: 11.4% Electoral Territory # 3: Punjab 3: Bahawalpur, DG Khan and Multan Divisions National Assembly Seats: 50 Percent of 272 contested seats: 18.4% South Punjab Page | 4 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 Electoral Territory # 4: Sindh 1: Karachi Division National Assembly Seats: 20 Karachi Percent of 272 contested seats: 7.4% Electoral Territory # 5: Sindh 2: Hyderabad, Larkana, Mir Pur Khas and Sukkur Divisions National Assembly Seats: 41 Percent of 272 contested seats: 15.1% Rest of Sindh Electoral Territory # 6: KPK 1: Malakand Division National Assembly Seats: 8 Northern KPK Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.9% Electoral Territory # 7: KPK 2: Bannu, DI Khan and Kohat Divisions National Assembly Seats: 19 South KPK Percent of 272 contested seats: 7.0% Electoral Territory # 8: KPK 3: Peshawar and Mardan Divisions National Assembly Seats: 13 KPK Peshawar Valley Percent of 272 contested seats: 4.8% Electoral Territory # 9: KPK 4: Hazara Division National Assembly Seats: 7 KPK Hazara Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.6% Electoral Territory # 10: Balochistan 1: Quetta and Zhob Divisions National Assembly Seats: 6 Quetta-Zhob Zone Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.2% Electoral Territory # 11: Balochistan 2: Kalat, Makran, Nasir Abad and Sibi Divisions National Assembly Seats: 8 Percent of 272 contested seats: 2.9% Kalat-Makran Zone Page | 5 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 2- February 2013 Forecast by Gallup-Pildat Poll These forecasts are based on a nation-wide poll on voting intentions in approximately 300 villages and 200 urban locations in all provinces and regions of the country. Detailed methodology is provided in the document. 3- Consolidated Forecast by Political Weather Forecast (PWF) The PWF forecast is computed by averaging the findings of two polls conducted by two separate organisations during the last 3 months. The consolidated figure is an average of the poll reported by IRI (as appeared in the media) and the poll conducted in January-February 2013 by Gallup Pakistan. 4- Gilani’s Index of Electoral Record: 1993-2008 This Index is based on data provided by the Election Commission of Pakistan for all national elections conducted during 1993-2008. The purpose of the Index is to measure consolidated voting patterns for all elections during this period. The consolidated voting pattern emerging from 4 National Elections over a period of 20 years provides a guideline to understand and interpret the latest forecasts. Details on this Index are available separately. 5- Three Drivers of Change in conventional (historically rooted) electoral patterns: Experts at Gallup Pakistan have developed three indicators which bear on political weather and can cause shifts in electoral behavior under certain conditions. Those are the following: Page | 6 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 a- Popularity-Electability Gap: (PE Gap) This Index is computed by measuring 2 variables. The first estimates the popularity of a party’s leader; the second estimates the vote bank of the party at the constituency level. The difference of the two is called Popularity- Electability Gap. b- Alliance Potential Index: All voters are surveyed on their first choice in the forthcoming electoral contest and the second choice. The second choice provides an indication of the acceptability of that party to the voter under certain conditions. This figure is taken as the Alliance Value or Index of that party. c- Acceptability Gap: Acceptability Gap measures the level of voter’s net hostility among voters about a political party. If the positive value of voting intention in favor of a party is greater than hostility against it (voters saying they will never vote for it), the Index gives a positive value on Ability to Govern. This means that irrespective of the size of its vote bank, it enjoys Acceptability to Govern. If the value of hostility is higher than the value of voting intention, the Index provides a Negative Value. Negative value indicates the possibility of voters casting their strategic vote for a competing party, not for the love of it, but to defeat the party that invokes their hostility. It also shows that irrespective of the size of its vote bank, the party has wide Unacceptability to Govern the country. Page | 7 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 All three indices provide important background information for intelligent and decent debate on expected outcome of the forthcoming election. 6- Acronyms for Party Names: ANP Awami National Party FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas MNA Member National Assembly MQM Muttahidda Quami Movement KP Khyber Pakhtunkhawa Province PML-Q/O Pakistan Muslim League Q/Other Groups PML-N Pakistan Muslim League -Nawaz PPP Pakistan Peoples Party PTI Pakistan Tahreek-e-Insaf JI Jamat-e-Islami JUI-F/MMA Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (F) / MMA PAT Pakistan Awami Tahreek PWF Political Weather Forecast IND Independent Candidate Page | 8 The Uncertain POLITICAL WEATHER FORECAST for Election 2013 7- RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1- Sample Size: 9,660 2- Scope of Sample: The sample is representative of Male and Female adult (Age 18+) population of Pakistan. The sample represents both rural and urban areas of