An Atomic Adventure
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An atomic adventure A case study of the history of Swedish nuclear policy using the theories of historical institutionalism and advocacy coalition framework author Martin Jansson supervisor Elfar Loftsson Master's thesis, 30 hp spring 2015 Södertörns Högskola Faculty of environmental sciences Environment, communication & politics Abstract A case study of the first 35 years, 1945 to 1980, of the Swedish nuclear institution. The purpose is to discover which actors that have shaped the Swedish nuclear institution. By using the theories of historical institutionalism and advocacy coalition framework I have analyzed these 35 years in three separate parts. Historical institutionalism puts emphasis on the creation of an institution, and so have I. The creation phase goes from 1945 to 1972. The following two parts are critical junctures that spans the years 1973-1978 and 1978-1980. The first critical juncture deals with the Centre Party's reversal in their opinion on nuclear power, the 1976 election and the outcome of that election. The third juncture starts with the Harrisburg accident and ends after the 1980 referendum. Using the advocacy coalition framework to analyze the actions or actors and coalitions during these three phases, I have come to the conclusion that the industry actors, those that have built the reactors, have been the most successful in pushing their coalition's agendas, over the years. Their influence was considerable during the years of institutional creation, while the coalitions that opposed nuclear power were quite weak during this time frame, which is consistent with historical institutionalism's focus on the creation, and path dependence. keywords: Nuclear power, coalitions, actors, historical institutionalism, path dependence, advocacy coalition framework, environmental movements 1 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Research problems & questions ........................................................................................... 6 2 Method ................................................................................................................................................ 7 2.1 Research design & limitations.............................................................................................. 8 2.2 Sources & earlier research ................................................................................................... 9 2.3 Disclaimers ........................................................................................................................ 10 3 Theory ............................................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Historical institutionalism .................................................................................................. 11 3.1.1 Punctuated equilibria/critical junctures ....................................................................... 12 3.1.2 Agency & change ....................................................................................................... 13 3.1.3 Institutions .................................................................................................................. 13 3.1.4 Criticisms .................................................................................................................... 15 3.2 Advocacy coalition framework .......................................................................................... 15 3.2.1 Agency........................................................................................................................ 17 3.2.2 Belief systems, individuals & the devil shift ............................................................... 18 3.2.3 Learning & change ..................................................................................................... 19 3.2.4 Criticisms .................................................................................................................... 20 3.3 The green dimension of politics ......................................................................................... 21 3.3.1 Where do the parties stand? ........................................................................................ 22 4. The creation of the Swedish Nuclear Institution: 1945-1972 ............................................................ 24 4.1 Timeline ............................................................................................................................. 24 4.2 Actors & coalitions ............................................................................................................ 25 4.3 A Swedish bomb, Swedish uranium and the Swedish line ................................................. 26 4.3.1 The Swedish line ........................................................................................................ 28 4.3.2 ASEA, Vattenfall and AB Atomenergi ....................................................................... 29 4.3.3 ASEA-Atom ............................................................................................................... 31 4.3.4 Atomic fuel ................................................................................................................. 32 4.3.5 Different reactors ........................................................................................................ 32 4.3.6 Ågesta and Marviken .................................................................................................. 34 4.3.7 Oskarshamn & light water reactors ............................................................................ 35 4.4 The captains of industry ..................................................................................................... 36 4.5 The Social democrats ......................................................................................................... 37 4.5.1 Social democratic environmentalists ........................................................................... 38 4.5.2 The relationship between S and the industry............................................................... 38 4.5.3 Internal strife .............................................................................................................. 39 4.6 The seeds of a green movement ......................................................................................... 40 4.7 Other critics ....................................................................................................................... 42 4.7.1 Criticism from within.................................................................................................. 44 2 4.7.2 Mr. Alfvén .................................................................................................................. 44 4.8 Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 45 4.8.1 The advocacy coalition framework ............................................................................. 45 4.8.2 Historical institutionalism & path dependence ........................................................... 46 4.8.4 The pro-weapons coalition .......................................................................................... 48 4.8.5 The Swedish line coalition .......................................................................................... 48 4.8.6 The commercial reactor coalition................................................................................ 49 4.8.7 The environmental/critical coalition ........................................................................... 49 5 Juncture 1: 1973-78, Fälldin & Alfvén .............................................................................................. 50 5.1 Timeline ............................................................................................................................. 50 5.2 Actors & coalitions ............................................................................................................ 50 5.3 The Centre Party ................................................................................................................ 50 5.3.1 Hannes, Hambraeus and Fälldin ................................................................................. 51 5.3.2 Hambraeus' parliamentary fight .................................................................................. 52 5.4 The other political parties................................................................................................... 53 5.5 The environmental movements .......................................................................................... 54 5.6 The election of 1976 .......................................................................................................... 55 5.7 After the election................................................................................................................ 56 5.7.1 The energy commission & a solution for nuclear waste.............................................. 57 5.7.2 Fälldin in trouble ........................................................................................................ 59 5.8 Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 61 5.8.1 Historical institutionalism ..........................................................................................