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Strategic Vision vol. 9, no. 46 (June, 2020) Missing the Old Normal

Amrita Jash

!"# $#"%#&' "$ the Wuhan virus in er, and has hampered the diplomatic e-orts of the December ()*+ in had transi- People’s Republic of China (PRC). Wtioned by March ()() into a global pan- With increased damage to China’s responsible im- demic, rebranded as COVID-*+. On one hand, the age, the pandemic severely hijacked ’s rela- stringent measures employed by Beijing to combat tions and led to harsh criticism of the communist the virus outbreak, such as imposing lockdowns, regime. Examples of this criticism include references travel restrictions, and testing through no-contact to COVID-*+ as the Chinese virus or Wuhan vi- measures, have been lauded in the press; on the other rus; describing China’s aid activities as little more hand, China’s lack of transparency and initial at- than “mask ”; and calls to make China tempts to cover up the outbreak have put Beijing pay for the damage done. ,e biggest casualty has under global scrutiny. ,is has raised serious doubts been China’s relations with the United States. With over China’s ability to act as a responsible stakehold- hundreds of thousands having died from the virus

photo: Shealah Craighead

US President , Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and Indian Prime Minister at the G20 .

Dr. Amrita Jash is Research Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), in -India. She holds a PhD in Chinese Studies from Jawaharlal Nehru University. 30 STRATEGIC VISION

photo: Isaac Maxwell US, Japanese, and Indian Naval o!cers address participants during the 2019 Malabar Exercise. worldwide, countries have been prompted to rethink such as Italy, Pakistan, Iran, Venezuela, and others their ties with the Beijing regime. India and Japan have also received contingents of Chinese medical have been notable exceptions, however, by not join- teams. ,rough such e-orts, China hopes to boost ing in the blame game. its international status. However, its own handling ,e signi/cance of Beijing’s relations with New of the virus outbreak has raised serious doubts over Delhi and Tokyo is four-fold. First, China shares Beijing’s ability to act as a responsible world leader. important bilateral ties with both. Second, both are China’s battle against international criticism has important trading partners. ,ird, China has unre- solved territorial issues with both, including terri- “The wolf warrior attitude of Beijing’s torial and maritime disputes with Japan in the East representatives is only causing more China Sea. Fourth, both New Delhi and Tokyo are damage to its already tarnished image.” important partners to the United States. given rise to another aspect of the COVID-*+ fallout: COVID-"# impact the rise of so-called . Chinese have become increasingly more strident Given these factors, it is imperative to understand the and combative, applying diplomatic aggression to impact of COVID-*+ on China’s good relations with win the war to control the narrative. “,e days when India and Japan, as they have important repercussions China can be put in a submissive position are long for Asia, and for the globe. Calling for a global e-ort gone,” the (CCP) mouth- to /ght the pandemic, Chinese leaders have launched piece !e tweeted. a Health Silk Road approach to diplomacy, by pro- International crises can o.en become make-or- viding test kits, masks, ventilators and other medical break opportunities. For China, COVID-*+ has supplies to over *)) countries. In addition, countries proved to be a “break” moment. With the pandemic PRC Ties With Japan, India 31 destabilizing the international economy and global equally, and foster an open, fair and equitable busi- order, the most pressing challenge for China—besides ness environment.” saving the lives of its citizens—is damage control. Second, the Indian Council of Medical Research Unfortunately, the wolf warrior attitude of Beijing’s found the test kits for coronavirus antibodies pro- representatives is only causing more damage to its vided by two Chinese /rms to have poor accuracy, already tarnished image. and was forced to return them. Ji went on the defen- sive, saying that using the word “faulty” to describe Spirits dampened Chinese products was “unfair and irresponsible.” ,ird, !e Global Times took exception to an opin- ,e celebratory spirit of the 0)th anniversary of ion column in the Indian media outlet WION, which China-India relations has been gravely hit by the expressed support for ’s participation in the pandemic. What was supposed to be a landmark year World Health Assembly, given that country’s im- has seen a number of severe diplomatic challenges pressive handling of the pandemic and its - over COVID-*+. First, India stepped up scrutiny of ic isolation at the hands of China. ,e aforemen- investments from neighboring countries to curb “op- tioned CCP mouthpiece advised WION, and other portunistic takeovers and acquisitions”—phrasing Indian media, to “think independently,” characteriz- that is clearly aimed at Chinese investments. Now, ing WION’s words of support for Taiwan as de/ance countries need to approach the Indian ’s “internationally recognized one-China rather than opting for the automatic route. Calling principle.” this “discriminatory,” a spokeswoman for the Chinese Finally, the virus failed to prevent or dampen ten- Embassy in India, Counselor Ji Rong, emphasized the sions at the border when in June, India and China need “to treat investments from di-erent countries witnessed a violent scu1e in the Galwan Valley of

photo: River Bruce

A US Air Force B-1B takes o" from Anderson Air Force Base in Guam to support operations in the Sea of Japan. 32 STRATEGIC VISION

A traditional ceremony is held at a monastery in Ladakh. The region has been the site of con#ict recently between Indian and Chinese troops.

Eastern Ladakh, resulting in the death of () Indian a positive note, Japan was the /rst to provide medi- soldiers. ,is was the deadliest incident between the cal aid to China by donating masks, goggles, protec- two countries’ militaries since *+20. ,e precursor to tive suits, and other supplies for epidemic preven- this was set in May, when Indian and Chinese troops tion and control. In addition, Japan’s ruling Liberal clashed in two previous incidents, to which China re- Democratic Party Diet members also donated a por- sponded by saying “our troops there are committed to tion of their March salaries (3,))) yen) to China’s upholding peace and stability.” Furthermore, China /ght against COVID-*+—a sum totaling ( million accused India of causing the tensions by turning a yen, or about US4*5,*0). blind eye to its own transgressions along the contest- ed border that led to the calamity. ,ese situations “Although the wolf warrior diplomacy exemplify the tensions at play between China and employed by China’s diplomats has India, and the pandemic is only adding new facets not yet been directed toward India to old diplomatic tensions. or Japan, relations exhibit the strains What looked to have been improving Beijing-Tokyo of discord, suggesting that not every- thing is going well.” relations was impacted by the COVID-*+ pandemic. Most notably, the outbreak has hijacked the biggest potential political breakthrough in Sino-Japanese ,e impact on bilateral ties can be witnessed in sev- ties by stalling a by PRC General Secretary eral areas. First, the disruption of the export-import planned for April. ,is diplomatic event supply chain has prompted Japan to shi. its manufac- was seen by both sides as a potential stabilizer for the turing of high value-added products from China back fragile ties, but the virus outbreak caused a delay. On to Japan, and for the production of other goods to be PRC Ties With Japan, India 33 spread across Southeast Asia. In doing so, a signi/- stroyer in Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force. ,is cant amount of the US4(.6 billion stimulus package further demonstrates that old tensions remain far against COVID-*+ has been allotted for companies from settled. ,ese factors exemplify the divide that to shi. production back to Japan, or to other coun- runs in contrast to the intention of putting relations tries. ,is decisive move by Japan risks impacting the on a stable track. e-ort by Xi and Abe to stabilize relations. With the growing economic contingencies, Japan’s economic Signi$cant shi% recovery will act as a decisive factor in shaping the ties between the two trading partners. China’s relations with India and Japan are undergo- Second, on the political front, Tokyo is showing ing a signi/cant shi. under the COVD-*+ pandemic. signs of resentment toward Beijing for its culpabil- Although the wolf warrior diplomacy employed by ity for the virus outbreak. Speaking on the issue of China’s diplomats has not yet been directed toward China’s undue in7uence in the operations of the India or Japan, relations exhibit the strains of discord, World Health Organization (WHO), Japan’s Deputy suggesting that not everything is going well. Prime Minister Taro Aso ex- pressed criticism by suggesting, “it shouldn’t be called the WHO. It should be re- named the CHO [China Health Organization].” ,is o8cial criti- cism of China ex- empli/es instabil- ity in the relation- ship. ,ird, the vi- ral outbreak has failed to reduce tensions in the East China Sea. In March, a Chinese /shing boat col- lided with the JS Shimakaze, a

Hatakaze-class Maximilian Dörrbecker (Chumwa) guided missile de- 34 STRATEGIC VISION

With national interests held high, there seems to be new normal in China’s ties with both India and Japan, a divide in the pursuit of interests. ,e biggest casu- given that both are strong partners with Washington alty is China’s trade, given that both India and Japan and, most importantly, members of the Quadrilateral are major trading partners. Amid a global push to Security Dialogue, or Quad, which seems to unnerve disengage from China, India is becoming an attrac- Chinese leaders. tive new option as a manufacturing base, which will ,e global action against China for its silence and cause China’s economy to su-er from a withdrawal lack of transparency over the Wuhan epidemic acts of investments. Japanese manufacturers pulling out as a litmus test. ,is will act as a pressure point for of China will only add to the damage done to China’s both India and Japan, if they so choose. ,is will re- economy, given Japan’s huge investments there. sult in creating severe discord in ties if New Delhi and Tokyo fail to maintain their respective pre-COVID-*+ Testing grounds policies toward Beijing. With the growing uncertainties and increasing eco- Furthermore, given the unresolved territorial and nomic distress accompanied by overwhelmed health maritime disputes, if China takes a wolf warrior at- care systems, many countries are now forced to re- titude toward New Delhi and Tokyo, then both the evaluate their diplomatic ties with China. India and Chinese border with India and the East China Sea Japan are no exceptions. Under these circumstances, will become the testing grounds for Beijing’s resolve and with no immediate upswing in relations appar- to recover from the secondary e-ects the pandemic. ent on the horizon, China’s ties with India and Japan ,is will further add to the security dilemma be- are likely to sink to a new diplomatic low. ,erefore, tween these states. a return to the old normal would appear to be a far- In addition, the US factor looms large in shaping a fetched prospect.

photo: Soon Kwon

Sailors aboard the USS McCampbell stand at attention for India’s International Fleet Review 2016 passing exercise hosted by the Indian Navy.