Smallsats by the Numbers 2020
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 1 Overview
Introduction
2019 Smallsat Highlights Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
Commercial Smallsats
Government Smallsats
Non-Profit and Academic Smallsats
Looking Forward: Areas To Watch
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 2 Introduction
Smaller satellites are of increasing interest; more widely used in recent years Mass Class Name Kilograms (kg) Bryce’s Smallsats by the Numbers presents historical Femto 0.01 – 0.09 information on smaller satellites launched 2012-2019 Pico 0.1 – 1 (regardless of operational status) Nano 1.1 – 10 Definition used here, 600 kg and under, reflects the Micro 11 – 200 Smallsats five smallest mass classes defined by the FAA Mini 201 – 600 ‘Smallsat’ or ‘very small satellite’ are often used to Small 601 – 1,200 refer to smaller satellites Medium 1,201 – 2,500 Intermediate 2,501 – 4,200 Large 4,201 – 5,400 Heavy 5,401 – 7,000 Extra Heavy > 7,001
From FAA The Annual Compendium of Commercial Space Transportation: 2018
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 3 2019 Smallsat Highlights
Other/Unknown average smallsat mass, nearly 2x Scientific Remote increase from 2018, 6x increase 3% 2% Sensing 109 kg from 2017
26% of launches included smallsats, 45% nearly doubling from 24% in 2012 37% 389 Smallsats Launched dedicated smallsat launches, almost 28 half by China 32%
Communications Technology of smallsats launched by U.S. Development 57% launch providers Smallsats by Use
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 4 Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019) Highlights
1,700+ smallsats launched
52% of smallsats provide commercial services
increase in proportion of upmass represented by 11x smallsats over 7 years
Smallsat usage began to increase Government and commercial sectors are in 2012 increasingly using smallsats
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 5 The Big Picture of Smallsats: Smallsats in Context Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
500
400
300
200 389 338 328 Number of Spacecraft Launched Number of Spacecraft
100 195 173 130 126
52 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Smallsat (.01-600 kg) Small (601-1,200 kg) Medium (1,201-2,500 kg) Intermediate (2,501-4,200 kg) Large (4,201-5,400 kg) Heavy (5,401-7000 kg) Extra Heavy (7,000+ kg)
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 6 Number of Smallsats by Mass Class Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
450
400
350
300 Launched
250 Smallsats 200
150 Number of
100
50
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Femto (.01-.09) Pico (.1-1) Nano (1.1-10) Micro (11-200) Mini (201-600)
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 7 Share of Smallsats by Mass Class Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
100% 2% 7% 8% 8% 9% 9% 17% 90% 17%
21% 17% 18% 37% 80% 24% 14%
70% Smallsats 33%
60% 16% 50% 37% 83% 65% 59% 40% 21% 67% 58%
30% 38%
20% 29% Percentage of Total Number of of Total Percentage 29% 10% 6% 12% 10% 6% 6% 5% 3% 4% 3% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Femto (.01-.09 kg) Pico (.1-1 kg) Nano (1.1-10 kg) Micro (11-200 kg) Mini (201-600 kg)
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 8 Share of Smallsats by Use Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
100% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 5% 2% 7% 6% 3% 10% 6% 90% 15% 18% 10% 10% 11% 80% 30% 12% 38% 11% 70% 36% 28%
60% 43%
Launched 40%
50%
52% 32% 40% Smallsats 58% 66% 30% 54% 53%
20% 39% 38% 26%
Percentage of Percentage 10% 17% 9% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Remote Sensing Technology Development Communications Scientific Other/Unknown Planet owned 55% of remote sensing smallsats launched; SpaceX owned nearly 50% of communications smallsats
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 9 Number of Smallsats by Operator Type Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
450
400
350
300
Launched 250
200 Smallsats 150
100 Number of 50
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Commercial Academic Government-Civil Government-Military Non-Profit
Share of smallsats providing commercial services grew from 6% in 2012 to 62% in 2019
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 10 Average Smallsat Mass Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
120
100
80
60 Launched (Kilograms)
40 Smallsats
20 Mass of
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 11 Smallsats as Percentage of Total Upmass Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Percentage of Total Upmass 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 11% Represented by Smallsats
In 2019, smallsats made up 11% of all mass launched into orbit
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 12 Percentage of Smallsats by Operating Country Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
Each 1% Australia Canada 14% India South Korea UK
Germany 3%
Russia 4% 1,731 Smallsats 4% Launched Japan (2012 – 2019) 60% USA 10%
China
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 13 Percentage and Number of Smallsats by Country of Launch Provider Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
450 ≤1% Europe Iran Japan North Korea 400 2% Israel
350 China 5%
300 11%
250
200 1,731 45%
150 Smallsats Number of Spacecraft 18% Launched 100 (2012 – 2019)
50 Russia USA
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 18%
USA India Russia China Japan Europe Iran North Korea Israel
Rocket Lab is headquartered in the U.S. with a subsidiary in New Zealand. It is counted here as a U.S. company India
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 14 Percentage of Launches With Smallsats Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
120 50%
45%
100
40% Percentage with of Launches
35% 80
30%
60 25%
20%
40 Smallsats
Total Number of Launches Total 15%
10% 20
5%
0 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Launches Without Smallsats Launches With Smallsats Percentage of Launches With Smallsats
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 15 Share of Smallsats by Launch Vehicle Category Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
100% 5% 8% 16% 13% 90% 20% 26% 37% 80% 39%
70%
60%
50% 95% 92% 84% 87% 40% 80% 74%
Percentage of Launches Percentage 63% 30% 61%
20%
10%
0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Medium-Heavy Launch Small Launch Vehicles Medium-Heavy Launch Vehicle Small Launch Vehicle *FAA definitions of medium-heavy and small launch vehicles Vehicles (Capacity >2,268 kg)* Vehicles (Capacity ≤2,268 kg)*
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 16 Launches Dedicated to Smallsats Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
100% 30
90%
25 80% Number of Dedicated Launches 70% 20
60%
50% 15 Launches that were Dedicated Launches that were
40%
Smallsat 10 30%
20% 5
10% Percentage of Percentage
0% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Percent of Smallsat Launches that were Dedicated Dedicated Smallsat Launches
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 17 Percentage of Smallsats Launched that are CubeSats Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
100%
90%
80% are CubeSats are
70%
60%
50%
40% Smallsats launched that
30%
20% Percentage of Percentage
10%
0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 18 Share of CubeSats by Dimension Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
1.5U ≤1% All Others 6U 5% 7% 2U CubeSats are a “kit” form of 7% smallsat with a standard form factor • 1 kg, 10-centimeter cube = 1 1,126 unit = 1U CubeSats • Can combine to form larger CubeSats (e.g. 3U, 6U, more) 15% Launched 1U (2012 – 2019) 64% 3U
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 19 Number of CubeSats Launched Directly into Orbit vs Deployed From ISS Smallsat Trends (2012 – 2019)
300
250
200 Launched
150 CubeSats
100 Number of
50
0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Launched Directly to Orbit Launched to be Deployed from ISS
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 20 Commercial Smallsats Highlights 899 commercial smallsats launched, 2012 – 2019
68% for remote sensing
81% manufactured by U.S. companies
70% owned by Planet, SpaceX, Spire (largest smallsat operators)
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 21 Commercial Smallsats by Use Commercial Smallsats
2% 1 100% 1% 300 2% 2% Other/Unknown 7% 8% 5% 16% 90% 5% 16% 14% 250 Number of Commercial 80% 9% Launched
70% 20% 58% 67% 200 80
60% Smallsats 243 50% 57% 97% 150 93% Commercial 87% Smalllsats Smallsats 40% 76% 9% 140 Launched in 2019 100 30% 61% Launched 20% 22 33% 33% 50
Percentage of Commercial of Commercial Percentage 10% 21%
0% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Remote Sensing Technology Development Communications Scientific Other/Unknown Number of Smallsats
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 22 Percentage by Operator Commercial Smallsats
113 Commercial Operators 30%
899 43% Commercial Smallsats Launched (2012 – 2019)
13%
14%
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 23 Government Smallsats Highlights
353 government smallsats launched 2012 – 2019
38% owned by U.S. government (about 1/3 NASA)
42 governments (including Europe) own smallsats
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 24 Total Number of Government Smallsats (2012 – 2019) Government Smallsats
160 Six or Fewer Government
140 Smallsats Iran Vietnam Canada Egypt 120 South Korea Ecuador Norway Singapore
100 France Belarus Australia Argentina Algeria Philippines 80 North Korea Ethiopia
of Government Smallsats of Government Israel Colombia United Kingdom Malaysia 60 Poland Kazakhstan
Number Brazil Spain 40 Turkey Mexico Saudi Arabia Pakistan UAE Peru 20 Indonesia Rwanda Italy Sweden
0 USA China Russia Japan India Germany Europe Taiwan
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 25 Largest Government Smallsat Operators Government Smallsats
# of Satellites Launched Type Operator 2012 – 2019 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 51 Russian Federal Space Agency (Roscosmos) 22 Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), US 16 Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) 12 Civil Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) 9 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR) 7 European Space Agency (ESA) 7 National Space Program Office (NSPO), Taiwan 7 US DoD 58 Russia Ministry of Defence 21 Military People's Liberation Army (PLA), China 22 (based on public sources) Project Biarri, Australia 3 Korean People's Army 3
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 26 Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats Highlights
smallsats launched by academic (348) and non-profit 459 (111) organizations 2012 – 2019
~80% for technology development
academic (189) and non-profit (53) organizations 242 own smallsats (often only one or two)
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 27 Number of Academic Smallsats by Institution Academic and Non-Profit Smallsats
18
16 Nearly 190 academic operators Nearly 190 academic operators 14 launched smallsats 2012 – 2019 launched smallsats 2012 – 2019
12 Delete Cal Poly and (SJSU)
10 Either delete (Beijing) from Tsighun, or add (city) or 8 (country) to others
6 Number of Academic Smallsats Number of Academic 4
2
0 Kyushu Institute Technical University of California Nanyang San Jose State Tsinghua University of of Technology University of Colorado at Polytechnic Technical University University Toronto Berlin Boulder State University University
Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 28 Looking Forward: Areas To Watch
Business Outcomes Smallsat business ventures of all types continue efforts to prove both their business models and their ability to generate significant revenue. Financial outcomes of today’s smallsat companies will impact the long-term smallsat market
Communications Constellations Smallsat telecommunications operators have said they plan to launch tens of thousands of smallsats. Initial deployment of these large constellations will dominate smallsat activity in the next few years
Small Launch Vehicles Dozens of new small launch vehicles (many <500kg capacity) are in development to launch smallsats. Governments are increasingly interested in small launch vehicles. Among commercial customers, competition from larger vehicles and uncertainty in smallsat business cases will shape the market
Orbital Debris Large smallsat constellations raise concerns about orbital debris. How businesses and policy makers respond to debris risk will be a trend to watch in 2020
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Bryce Space and Technology analytics + engineering www.brycetech.com 30