Space-Science Hopes Rest on Rocket Test New Launch Vehicle Could Carry Next Generation of NASA’S Research Probes

NEWS NATURE|Vol 465|20 May 2010

Space-science hopes rest on rocket test New launch vehicle could carry next generation of NASA’s research probes.

When the Falcon 9 rocket makes its inaugural This radical transition is still very much in

test flight, expected later this month, it will doubt, as legislators in Congress fight to protect SpaceX carry with it NASA’s hopes for a new genera- space-industry jobs (see Nature doi:10.1038/ tion of low-cost rockets to ferry cargo and peo- news.2010.189; 2010). Yet even the most ardent ple into space. critics of Obama’s new space vision are eager to The rocket — touted as a possible saviour see whether Falcon 9 can help to keep NASA of human spaceflight — could also solve a astronauts in space. serious problem facing the next generation of In the obsession over human space flight, space probes. Satellites that observe Earth and many are overlooking the role that the Falcon 9 nearby planets, as well as space telescopes able could have in replacing the Delta II, which came to look deep into the cosmos, are about to be to prominence during a golden era in the 1990s hit by the retirement of the Delta II rocket, a when rockets were plentiful and relatively inex- workhorse that has launched 60% of NASA’s pensive. The rocket’s biggest buyer, the US Air science missions during the past decade. Force, had to launch a constellation of global Among NASA’s stable of rockets, the Delta II positioning satellites, and private satellite-com- is the right size for all but the most ambitious munication companies such as Iridium were science missions, and at about $50 million per also snapping up the rockets by the handful. rocket the price was right too — ten years ago. But then the communications satellite market But since then, the cost of a Delta II launch has dried up, and the Air Force said it no longer had roughly doubled, making it unaffordable. The an essential need for the Delta II, conducting last science launch scheduled for the Delta II its final launch with one last year. Instead, the is in 2011, for GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Air Force has committed to sustaining the very Interior Laboratory), a mission to study the Countdown is imminent for the Falcon 9 rocket. large Delta IV and Atlas V rockets in the Evolved Moon’s core by mapping tiny variations in its Expendable Launch Vehicle programme. weak gravitational field. could carry supplies and science experiments “We’re almost reaching the stage of despera- to the International Space Station (ISS). In Price hikes tion for launch vehicles,” says Jack Burns, a space December 2008, SpaceX won a $1.6-billion As buyers have bailed, the price of a Delta II, scientist at the University of Colorado at Boul- contract for 12 ISS resupply flights, up until including launch, has shot up. A decade ago, der and a member of NASA’s science advisory the end of 2015. The rocket’s potential role they were a relative bargain, ranging from committee. NASA science chief Edward Weiler expanded in February, when President Barack $50 million to $80 million apiece. Now, each adds, “If there is no replacement ever for the Obama proposed axing the suite of NASA one costs about $120 million — almost as Delta II, that would take away a critical capa- rockets intended to replace the Space Shuttle expensive as the much bigger Atlas V — with bility.” He hopes that in three or four years the and once again send humans to the Moon. further hikes expected. United Launch Alli- Falcon 9, developed by SpaceX of Hawthorne, Some $6 billion over 5 years — money that ance, the joint venture of Lockheed Martin and California, will emerge as a low-cost replace- would have gone to the Constellation rockets Boeing that makes the Delta II, would be happy ment. “Very much hoping, I might add.” — would instead be ploughed into commercial to continue selling it to NASA. The compo- SpaceX unveiled its plans for Falcon 9 in providers such as SpaceX, in the hope that they nents for five rockets are waiting to be assem- 2005, and a year later won NASA contracts could transport not only cargo, but people as bled, says William Wrobel, who directs NASA’s worth $278 million to develop rockets that well (see Nature 463, 716–717; 2010). launch services programme. The problem is

MID-SIZED ROCKETS NEED A BOOST 60 m SpaceX hopes the Falcon 9 will ﬁll a hole left by the retirement of the Delta II. SHUTTLE ATLAS V (401) • First launch: 1981 • First launch: 2002 • Payload to LEO: FALCON 9 • Payload to LEO: 24,400 kg 40 m 9,800 kg TAURUS II • First launch: 2010 • DELTA II (7920) • First launch: 2011 Payload to LEO: • First launch: 1990 • Payload to LEO: 10,450 kg • Payload to LEO: 5,500 kg 6,100 kg 20 m

LEO, low Earth orbit 0 m

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research overseas. u go.nature.com/q2q7BT p that, without the additional buyers and bigger market, NASA cannot afford to pay for Neglected diseases fund touted the upkeep of the launch-pad infrastructure that the Air Force had paid for. “NASA can’t go it alone,” says Wrobel. Despite decades of research into drugs channelled through PDPs. Although only Wrobel says that most imminent mis- and vaccines for neglected diseases such as 13 of more than 1,000 drugs developed sion launches, such as the 2011 launch of tuberculosis and dengue fever, few products between 1975 and 1997 were for neglected the heavy Mars Science Laboratory and have made it through clinical development diseases, PDPs created over the past decade Juno, a mission to Jupiter, needed the extra and into the hands of the millions who already have 143 candidate products thrust of an Atlas V anyway. But if NASA desperately need them. in development, and have rolled out 11 officials are forced to buy more Atlas Vs One of the biggest hurdles is the products for malaria, leishmaniasis and in the future, they will be paying extra for sheer expense of running clinical trials, meningitis. unused launch capacity. “The more that the compared with the small profits that But many PDPs need a fresh cash launch vehicle costs, the less science mis- commercial companies can expect to injection as more of their product sion you get for your money. Or fewer mis- make from treatments for diseases that candidates begin to enter clinical sions,” says Alan Stern, a planetary scientist disproportionately affect poor and development, the most expensive phase at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, marginalized populations. of drug and vaccine discovery. Without NASA’s former science chief and an advo- This week, alongside the World Health substantial new funding, projects will stall cate of commercial space flight. Organization’s (WHO’s) annual assembly and waste much of the earlier development Several missions could take advantage of health ministers in Geneva, Switzerland, work and investments, says Paul Herrling, of Falcon 9’s leaner launch capability and a consortium of industry and non- head of the Novartis Institutes for lower price of about $50 million per launch. governmental organizations proposed Developing World Medical Research. These include the Soil Moisture Active and a scheme to help address the problem: a The proposed PDP+ Fund would seek to Passive mission, an Earth-observing sat- global fund that would channel billions of raise funds from governments and other ellite due for launch in 2015; the Interna- dollars a year into product development. donors, and through bond financing and tional Lunar Network, a system of landers Plans for the fund were put forward by innovative taxation schemes. It would act as designed to meas- the International AIDS Vaccine Initiative a one-stop-shop for donors, coordinating “The more the ure the Moon’s seis- (IAVI), the pharmaceutical giant Novartis funding of projects to many different PDPs. launch vehicle mic activity, among and the George Institute for International “Do we need a super-PDP fund? Without costs, the less other things; and Health in Sydney, Australia. It would a doubt,” says Jean-François Alesandrini, modest-sized channel money from donors towards a spokesman for the DNDi. However, he science mission astrophysics and product-development partnerships cautions that the details of the scheme still you get for your planetary-science (PDPs) — collaborative efforts between need fleshing out, particularly on the issue money.” missions that would research agencies, donors and biotech and of attracting new donor funding. Many launch in 2016. pharmaceutical companies to develop questions remain as to how the PDP+ Fund All bets are not riding on the Falcon 9, drugs, diagnostics and vaccines for the would work, adds Alesandrini, in particular however, which will launch from Cape developing world. The fund aims to its governance structure, and how its expert Canaveral, Florida, and carry a prototype encourage contributions from donors who committees would choose which projects to of its cargo capsule Dragon. Orbital Sci- lack the resources or expertise to assess the fund. ences, headquartered in Dulles, Virginia, quality and progress of the various PDP Herrling says that informal discussions and another winner of ISS cargo-transport offerings. he has had with donors, including the US money, is developing the Taurus II, another Dozens of not-for-profit PDPs, including government, have been positive, as have medium-sized launcher that is scheduled the IAVI, the Medicines for Malaria those with other companies and groups that for first test flights in 2011 (see Mid-sized Venture, the Global Alliance for TB Drug will be invited to come on board. rockets need a boost). For the planned 2012 Development, and the Drugs for Neglected The PDP+ Fund resembles the idea for a launch of the Lunar Atmosphere and Dust Diseases initiative (DNDi), have been set global research fund that was floated by a Environment Explorer (LADEE), Orbital up during the past 15 years. Their aim is WHO expert panel in 2002 to complement is putting together stockpiled ballistic mis- to bridge the gap between basic research the multibillion-dollar Global Fund to Fight siles into the Minotaur 5, which costs less and product development, and to prevent AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. This was than $50 million and is just the right size for promising research leads for neglected created in the same year, but funds only the small Moon mission. diseases from languishing on the shelf. They disease-control measures, not research. The If Falcon 9’s test launch is successful, it are run like businesses, but are supported global research fund proposal never gained should be carrying cargo to the ISS within a by donor funding, and have generous traction because governments considered it few months. But scientists will have to wait intellectual-property rules to make any a risky venture, says Mary Moran, director a while longer — before a new rocket can products affordable to poor countries, of health policy at the George Institute. The carry a scientific payload, NASA requires allowing generic manufacturers to make difference now, says Herrling, is that PDPs three successful launches and a technical cheap versions freely. are widely recognized to produce drug certification that takes about three years. PDPs have become an attractive choice leads. “We have a state-of-the-art pipeline NASA hopes to certify Falcon 9 or one of for neglected-disease donors — of the that now needs investment to take forward,” its competitors by the end of 2013. ■ estimated US$3 billion spent on such he says. ■ Eric Hand research in 2008, about one-fifth was Declan Butler