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Berlin Institute for Population and Development

Lifeworlds in Europe How Consumer Structure between Madrid and Is Changing

n half is already shrinking +++ Purchasing power highest in Northern and Western Europe but the East is catching up +++ More elderly people in all in the future +++ Urban centres continue to gro nd Russians with low income +++ A third of consumers belong to middle-class lifeworlds +++ Mid-ranking young persons a rising force in +++ Large share of top-ranking lifeworlds in Great Britain

Berlin Institute for Population and Development

Lifeworlds in Europe How Consumer Structure between Madrid and Moscow Is Changing Imprint

Published by: GfK Verein Nordwestring 101 D-90419 Nürnberg Germany Phone: +49 (0)911-395-2231 Fax: +49 (0)911-395-2715 E-Mail: [email protected] www.gfk-verein.org

This study was commissioned by the GfK Verein and compiled by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development.

November 2012

Authors: Vera Kreuter, Ruth Müller, Florian Sievers, Reiner Klingholz

Copy-editing: Ruth Müller, Florian Sievers

Translation: Tradukas GbR

Organisation: Vera Kreuter

Design: Jörg Scholz/Traktor, Büro für Kommunikation, Cologne (www.traktorimnetz.de)

The majority of the thematic maps were drawn using the programme EasyMap of Lutum+Tappert DV-Beratung GmbH, Bonn. CONTENTS

FOREWORD ...... 4

EUROPE – THE DEMOGRAPHIC FORERUNNER ...... 5

1. DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN EUROPE AND ITS REGIONS ...... 8

2. THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF BIOGRAPHICAL LIFEWORLDS IN EUROPE TODAY AND IN THE FUTURE ...... 31

3. THE STRUCTURE OF THE BIOGRAPHICAL LIFEWORLDS IN EUROPE’S REGIONS TODAY AND IN 2025 ...... 47

INDICATORS AND EVALUATION ...... 115

REFERENCES ...... 119

Lifeworlds in Europe 3 FOREWORD

After many years of market research practice, of their biography. They grow up, go to school Future consumer patterns in Germany’s expenditure on research and development, the lifeworlds have become established as an and in some cases to college or university, regions were described in the study entitled labour market), and future (the infrastructure, excellent tool for dividing the population into engage in various kinds of gainful employment, Lifeworlds 2025: How Consumer Structure Is a shortage of highly skilled workers). These different segments and hence into different find a place to live, marry, bring up children, Changing in the [German] Regions, published factors are further influenced by the extent categories of consumer. A special feature of and eventually retire. Lifeworlds are hence in 2011. Reason enough, then, to ask how of and motives for in- and out-migration lifeworlds, a notion coined by the sociologist dynamic classifications, describing typical lifeworlds in the European regions will develop (education, work, retirement). Gerhard Kleining, is that these are not limited stages of a person’s biography together with over the next ten to fifteen years against the to particular product areas or characteristics of the very different needs and consumer wishes background of demographic change and the In what direction will consumer potential in current lifestyles, but reflect trends in society that go with them. continuing economic and financial crisis, the various regions of Europe develop? Will as a whole. This method of segmenting the and what special regional features we can there be more consumers with low income, population is used as a standard by several By comparing consumers across Europe, we already discern today. Using as a basis the or is the share of consumers with higher market research instruments, including the GfK find that if we allow for differences resulting accumulated data of the European Consumer socioeconomic status growing? Where will consumer panels, the GfK Consumer Climate from the varying standards of living in different Study conducted by the Gfk Verein, the present there be a particularly large number of older Index, and the “typology of wishes” employed , the biographical lifeworlds in study traces the development of lifeworlds, consumers by the middle of the next decade, by the Burda publishing house and will also many cases better reflect the variance in looking particularly at biographical lifeworlds and where can we expect the numbers form the basis for the joint market and media private consumption than a consideration of up to the year 2025. of young people and students to decline studies planned for the future by the publishers national differences does. Thus consumers in significantly? The present study conducted Bauer, Burda, Gruner+Jahr, and Springer Best a particular lifeworld, such as, for instance, Two factors are significant for how the by the Berlin Institute for Population and for Planning (B4P). The lifeworlds method has mid-ranking young persons, have much in lifeworlds in the individual European Development provides answers to those also been adopted by many ad-hoc studies common no matter what they live in regions will develop in the future: the first is questions. and for surveys conducted by brand-name and certainly more in common than national demographic trends; the second is changing manufacturers. Finally, they are used in the differences would lead us to expect. economic conditions, which are influenced Ronald Frank GfK’s European Consumer Study conducted by the past (structural change, the burden of GfK Verein regularly in nine countries since 2005. Family, obsolescent industries), present (investment, educational institutions, and place of work provide the framework for the different phases of life through which people pass in the course

4 Lifeworlds in Europe EUROPE – THE DEMOGRAPHIC FORERUNNER Europe has always been at the forefront of demographic change

Europe 2020 is the title of the European’s Young Europeans have been worst affected The study revealed huge differences not only flourishing labour market, making high rates Commission’s most important economic by the crisis, as the unemployment statistics between but also within the 30 countries of foreign migration necessary. The classical strategy programme for the future. Over the show. Yet these are precisely the people surveyed: differences in economic power, emigration countries like Ireland or Spain coming decade it aims to secure Europe’s needed to cushion the impact of demographic levels of education, and demographics. This is had now become immigration countries. Had future as a location for research and change, to compensate for the future decline scarcely surprising given that only a few years these trends continued, both population and development, improve the educational level of in the size of the workforce through better earlier the EU had gained ten new members economic performance would have continued its population, increase economic growth, and training and education, and thus finance aging from Central and (as well as the to soar. The 2008 study was based on data stabilise public finances. European societies. two small states Malta and Cyprus), enlarging collected before the crisis, and while it it to a total of 27. The countries of the former documented some of its early signs – such as So far, so good. Unfortunately, however, this In 2008 the Berlin Institute for Population East Bloc had, moreover, just completed a the end of the building boom in Spain or the sequel to what has been termed the Lisbon and Development published its first study difficult phase of transformation and were now banking crisis in Ireland, Iceland, and Great Strategy has received little public attention, for on Europe’s demographic future. The study faced with the gargantuan task of catching up Britain – these were not yet reflected in the the economic and financial crisis in Euroland evaluated all 285 regions of the EU and of with the rest of Europe, making it impossible statistics. The Demographic Future of Europe has consigned all visions of the future to the the non-EU states of Norway, Iceland, and for them to play in the same league as the was thus a snapshot of Europe just before the back burner for the time being. The chief goals Switzerland. Using 24 different criteria, members of the old EU. Populations were major economic slump. of both the Lisbon and the 2020 agendas – it surveyed the whole of Europe from the declining in some regions and growing rapidly more education, more innovation, and more Portuguese Azores in the Atlantic to Cyprus in in other, economically more powerful areas. Since then, not only has the economic sustainability in order to remain globally the Mediterranean, and from the far north of Societies were aging at different rates, with situation deteriorated, the demographic competitive – have thus disappeared from Norway to Sicily. All of the indicators used tell an exceptionally low birth rate in places where shift has also advanced further. The present the agenda in many EU states. For wherever us something about the future prospects of the many young people had moved away in search study shows these changes using the same budgets are cut, unemployment reaches record regions surveyed. Taken together, they provide of education and work, leaving the elderly indicators as in 2008. After Gross Domestic levels, and incomes and purchasing power fall, a comprehensive picture of the European behind. Educational levels, productivity, Product (GDP) in the EU had grown a further there will be little investment in the future. status quo. innovative power, and opportunities for 3.2 percent in 2007, mainly owing to the creating new jobs in the knowledge society boom in Central and Eastern Europe, it then were all distributed extremely unevenly across fell by 4.3 percent in 2009 and is expected to Europe. stagnate in 2012. According to the prognoses of the European statistics agency Eurostat, Nevertheless, there were some signs that only Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Iceland the late developers were starting to catch will achieve GDP growth of more than 2 up with the EU heartland. Countries like percent in 2012, while the crisis-ridden states Spain, Ireland, the Baltic Republics, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia were able to report high rates of economic growth and a

Lifeworlds in Europe 5 of Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain, and Slovenia Natural population growth – that is, the the continent has had the oldest population Shifting demography will be deep in the red, with negative growth amount by which births exceed deaths, was in the world. The median age, which divides rates of between minus 4.7 and minus 1.4 only one per thousand in the EU in 2011, a population into a younger and an older Around 11 percent of the world’s population currently lives in Europe, whereas in 1950 it was still more than percent. whereas worldwide it lay at about 1 percent half, was 40.6 for the EU as a whole in 2009 20 percent. Since Europe’s population is scarcely and in Africa it was as high as 2.4 percent. and is likely to rise to 47.9 by 2060. Thus growing any longer and after 2025 will probably start In demographic terms the EU continued to Any growth at all in the EU population is the workforces of European companies are to decline, its proportion of the world population grow during this period, exceeding the 500 increasingly attributable to migration from aging more than in other regions of the world. will continue to decrease and by 2050 only about million population threshold in 2009. Yet this non-EU states. If one includes as part Because the post-war baby-boom generation 8 percent of the inhabitants of the globe will be Europeans. By then the population of Africa will have growth is slowly but surely slowing down. of Europe, then Europe is the first and only will soon reach retirement age, the “working doubled and will make up around a quarter of the Prognoses predict a continuing increase until continent worldwide where the population has population” between the ages of 20 and 64 world’s population, as opposed to 15 percent today. the 2040s when the European population ceased to grow of its own accord. will start to decline in 2014 while the number The Asian share is expected to decrease from 60 to 55 is set to reach 526 million, but after that of people over 60 is already growing by two percent. While Europe’s populations are aging, those in Africa and Asia will remain much younger. On those it will gradually decline. Europe is thus on Because of the small number of births and million people a year even today – at double two continents the number of children being born the threshold of the demographic post- continuously rising life expectancy, Europe as the rate of 2007. By 2060 the share of over- is well above the level required to maintain a stable growth phase. Six EU countries – , a whole is aging, so that for some time now 80-year-olds in the population is likely to population. Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, and – have already reached this point, USA and Latin America as have several neighbouring countries such EU Europe Russia Asia Africa as Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia. Germany Canada and the Caribbean alone is set to lose 16 million inhabitants by 2011 502 740 143 346 596 4,216 1,051 2060 – and would then be only the third most Population (in millions) 2025 515 746 139 391 676 4,780 1,444 populous country in the EU after Great Britain 2050 513 725 126 470 746 5,284 2,300 and France. Change in population 2011 to 2050 (in percent) 2.2 – 2.0 – 11.9 35.8 25.2 25.3 118.8 2010 40.9 40.1 37.9 37.2 27.6 29.2 19.7 The reason for the decline is above all the Median age* 2025 44.4 43.8 41.5 38.9 32.8 33.9 21.8 continuing low birth rate. Although the fertility 2050 47.2 45.5 43.6 40.8 43.4 42.8 28.4 rate – that is the average number of children Number of children per woman 2011 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.2 2.2 4.7 born per woman – recently rose slightly to 2011 16 16 15 19 28 26 41 1.6 in the EU, it is not expected to reach the Percentage of under-15-year-olds 2025 15 16 17 19 23 22 36 2.1 level required to keep a population stable 2050 14 16 17 18 17 17 29 without immigration in the foreseeable 2011 17 16 13 13 7 7 4 future. Currently, only Ireland and Iceland Percentage of over-65-year-olds 2025 22 21 17 18 10 10 4 have achieved this level, and no country has 2050 29 27 23 22 19 18 7 exceeded it. On the contrary, in countries 2010 (EU 2009) 80 75 68 78 73 69 55 like Germany, Austria, and many other South, Life expectancy 2025 78 71 80 76 73 61 Central, and East European states the fertility 2050 82 75 83 80 77 68 rate seems to be stabilising at the low level of (Source: United Nations; Eurostat) around 1.4. *The median age divides the population into two halves of equal size, one older, the other younger.

6 Lifeworlds in Europe have tripled to 12 percent. People over 60 We see the same picture in Russia, only there Many countries in these growth regions and migrants are among the fastest-growing the differences between urban and rural have in addition succeeded in using their This study shows the figures for the nine countries chosen for more detailed analysis at the level of population groups in Europe. areas are even more dramatic. Because the huge potential of young people productively. NUTS2 regions (EU) or federal subjects (Russia). population as a whole is declining and because Some threshold countries have invested For the remaining countries we used the national These population effects become even more since the end of communism Russians have intelligently in education and jobs and have average. visible at the regional level; particularly in been free to choose where they live, people are thus managed to cash in their demographic countries where the population as whole is becoming ever more concentrated in the large dividend. Falling birth rates and rising The four French overseas (Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guayana, and Réunion) as well as the declining, rural areas on the periphery are , above all in Moscow, St Petersburg, incomes have led to a rapid rise in household Spanish exclaves in Morocco (Melilla and Ceuta) are losing inhabitants. While the has always Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, and Yekaterinburg, purchasing power, which in turn has further not included in the study because too much data exerted a pull on young people, in the past the while the already thinly-populated areas of this accelerated economic development. Even was missing. number of children in rural areas was much huge empire are depopulating still further. if the level of prosperity in those countries higher than in the cities, so it was possible to is still way below that in Europe viewed compensate for out-migration. This is no longer In world terms, then, both Europe and Russia in absolute terms, the economic centre of the case. As well as young people seeking are losing demographic weight, while global gravity is shifting even more rapidly than education or employment, young families income, purchasing power, and investment are the demographic one away from Europe and are also moving into the cities, because the moving to the new, demographically young towards Asia, Latin America, and in some infrastructure in rural areas is become ever and up-and-coming centres of the globe. In cases even Africa. thinner, with schools closing, post offices and 1960 Europe’s share of the world population shops disappearing, and healthcare provision was still 20 percent; by 2011 it had fallen to 11 Historically, Europe was always ahead when deteriorating. In modern societies, moreover, percent, and it is likely to decline further to 8 it came to demographic change, and it was new, future-oriented jobs tend to appear in percent by 2050. Whereas Russia’s population here, with the advent of industrialisation, those places where there is a critical mass has been shrinking for years and Europe’s has that the population explosion occurred that of universities, companies, and qualified stagnated, the population of Asia is set to grow later spread all over the world. Now, once people who will take ideas and develop new by 25 percent, that of North and South America again, Europe is heading the trend only this products and services out of them – in other by 29 percent, and that of Africa by almost 120 time towards aging and stagnation, and soon words, once again in the urban centres. Those percent. to population decline. Here, too, the other who remain in structurally weak rural areas regions of the world will follow sooner or – from Portugal to Spain, Germany, Bulgaria, later. All the more important then, given these or Romania – tend to be the elderly, so that parameters, to realise an innovation strategy future demographic development is already that despite demographic givens will ensure pre-programmed and with it regional income the well-being of the European population. distribution and purchasing power. The EU strategy Europe 2020 could make a major contribution towards this end.

Lifeworlds in Europe 7 DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS IN 1 EUROPE AND ITS REGIONS This study focuses on the current In order to judge how well equipped the better when evaluated as a whole than they The overall picture showing Northern Europe regional distribution and future regions are for the future, the Berlin Institute did four years ago. If we look more closely, ahead of Southern Europe and Western Europe development of biographical lifeworlds has developed an index based on 24 however, we see that the effects of the crisis ahead of Eastern Europe has not changed very in eight European countries: Great indicators. This takes into account not only are already becoming apparent, above all in much. Among the regions of the eight selected Britain, France, Spain, the Netherlands, the economic performance of a country or certain Spanish regions and in Ireland. In the EU countries, Upper Bavaria, North-East Austria, Italy, Poland, and Russia. The in terms of Gross Domestic Product interim evaluation of the labour market and Scotland, and the Berkshire-Buckinghamshire- Berlin Institute analysed the regional (GDP) or per capita income, but also the age in the individual indicators on which this is Oxfordshire region to the west of London, development of lifeworlds in Germany structure of the population, the employment based, the impact of the crisis is already very occupy the three top places, followed by in its study Lifeworlds 2025, published ratios of various population groups, clear. certain regions of Austria and the Netherlands. in 2011. Future developments in these educational and innovation indicators, and At the bottom of the scale we find remote rural countries and their regions depend indicators of ecological sustainability. A in southern Italy and most regions of largely on their current economic and list of the indicators together with precise Overall evaluation: west and north do Poland, which are still suffering the effects of demographic situation, which we will definitions can be found in the appendix on better than east and south the radical structural changes that followed the outline in the following. page 115. fall of the Iron Curtain. The maps of Europe on page 9 show the overall How fit are the countries of the EU for the The index was developed and compiled for evaluation on the basis of the 24 indicators future, most especially the various regions the first time in 2008. This first calculation for the years 2004–2006 and 2009–2011. of Austria, France, Germany, Great Britain, was based on data from the years 2004– They thus provide an overview of how well Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, and Spain? 2006 and thus reflected the state of the prepared the EU states and the non-EU states The answer to that question depends on the regions before the current economic and Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway are for the answers to a number of others, such as: Is the financial crisis, which began in 2007. The future. For the eight EU countries subjected population declining or increasing? To what newly calculated index is based on the latest to closer study the maps show the findings for extent is it aging? How large is each country’s available data from the years 2009–2011, individual regions; for the remaining countries potential working population? Is it well enabling us to observe how the regions and they show national averages.* The countries qualified and are there sufficient jobs available countries have fared during the crisis. The that scored highly on their fitness for the future * Owing to insufficient comparable data for the other for it? Is the economy innovative and will it go findings reveal that the overall picture of the both in 2008 and today were the Scandinavian non-EU European countries – such as the states on the on being able to compete with other regions? regions in the five years between the old and countries, Switzerland, and certain regions of former Yugoslavia and in particular Russia – the new data has scarcely deteriorated. A of southern Germany, Austria, Great Britain, we decided not to compile an index for these countries. number of regions, for example in Germany, In the following we do, however, outline a number of key France, and the Netherlands. indicators for the Russian regions, which taken together Spain, and Poland as well as in the countries allow us to gain a picture of the demographic, economic, of Central and Eastern Europe even score and social situation there.

8 Lifeworlds in Europe Overall evaluation 2008 Overall evaluation 2008/2012 Overall evaluation 2012 The comparison between the overall evaluations for 2008 and 2012 shows that the situation in most regions and countries has improved. better than 2.4 The overall value is composed of 24 indicators from five areas ranging from better than 2.4 Unemployment has fallen, not only in Germany, and GDP and disposable 2.4 to under 2.7 demography to economy and health. The evaluation uses the same system 2.4 to under 2.7 income have risen overall. The educational level and life expectancy of 2.7 to under 3.0 of grading as the German school system, awarding a mark from 1 (best) to 6 2.7 to under 3.0 populations have also increased. Although societies all over Europe have aged over this period, the time frame is too short for this unfavourable 3.0 to under 3.3 (worst). The overall evaluation shows clearly which EU countries and regions 3.0 to under 3.3 are well equipped for the future – because these score high marks on all or demographic development to have had much of an impact on the overall 3.3 to under 3.6 3.3 to under 3.6 many indicators – and which are likely to be struggling with development evaluation. The map also shows clearly, however, that some countries, 3.6 to under 3.9 problems. 3.6 to under 3.9 such as Spain, Ireland, the Baltic States, Greece, and some regions of Great 3.9 to under 4.2 3.9 to under 4.2 Britain, have been especially hard hit by the economic and financial crisis 4.2 and worse 4.2 and worse and score worse in the overall evaluation.

Lifeworlds in Europe 9 In the overall evaluation the picture has not Some indicators – such as climate and Unlike the fertility rate, in-migration may By contrast, in recent years the Polish regions changed much over the last four years: the environmental protection or the age structure fluctuate strongly from one year to the next have hardly lost any inhabitants to out- eastern EU countries continue to lag behind of the population – have been either hardly because it is influenced in the short term by migration. Although the proportion of young the western ones, and the Scandinavian affected or not affected at all by the current political and economic changes. In several people in the population is gradually declining, countries score highest. Nevertheless, the economic and financial crisis. And while the of the countries and regions surveyed here, it is still greater in Poland than in many other situation in almost all Central and East economic and labour market data from the changes in the migration balance – i.e. the European countries, since here the average European states behind the former Iron years 2009–2011 do show the impact of the difference between in- and out-migration – as number of children per woman was relatively Curtain has improved considerably. In Poland crisis, they also show positive developments in a result of the crisis are already observable. high until the fall of communism. Poland thus the positive trend applies above all to the a number of regions and countries. Ireland, Iceland, and many regions of has the potential for relatively favourable capital, Warsaw, and the surrounding region Spain, for example, became less attractive demographic development in the years to of Masovia, both of which have now attained a to migrants after 2009. The impact of the come. middle ranking. By contrast, some of Poland’s Demographics: more elderly people, crisis in these countries was felt early on and more rural areas are still among the regions a few more children was dramatic, leading to a sharp increase scoring worst overall in our index. In eastern in unemployment. These areas have also The labour market: an upswing in Germany many regions have improved Changes in the age structure of the population lost people as a result of out-migration and Germany and Poland; crisis not only in markedly; only -Anhalt continues to tend to follow long-term trends. Thus, dramatic hence, unlike in the years prior to the crisis, Spain lag far behind. At the top end of the ranking, changes in the birth rate are liable to occur even show a negative migration balance. Iceland was forced to relinquish its leading only after major political upheavals, if at all. The prospects look particularly dire in Spain, The interim indicators for the labour market position after being hit by the economic Altogether the proportion of young people in where the grave situation is compounded by a show clear changes in recent years – both and financial crisis, and Upper Bavaria now the population has fallen almost everywhere, birth rate that has been low for some time. at the top and at the bottom end of the occupies first place.* while that of older people has risen. This scale. Thus the crisis has not had such reflects the fact that for some time now Even though it showed some improvement disastrous consequences for the labour Parts of Poland and eastern Germany fertility rates have been low in the majority in the overall evaluation, eastern Germany market everywhere as it has in, say, Ireland demonstrate that even regions whose future of EU countries. In Germany, Italy, and Spain, continues to be Europe’s most worrying or Spain. On the other hand, many regions prospects once looked shaky can develop where the number of children born per woman region in terms of demographics. To date its in Central Europe have moved up to the top positively and that the overall evaluation of has been low for decades, there are few regions have yet to recover from the dramatic group, while in 2008 (using data from 2006) this study is not a final judgement. Rather, young people and hence few potential future drop in the fertility rate that followed the the Scandinavian countries and some British it should be regarded as a snapshot of a parents. In countries like France and Great political upheavals of 1989, and while the out- regions were clearly ahead with respect to particular point in time, which together with Britain, where the fertility rate is higher, there migration of young people that has prevailed employment. In southern Germany, Austria, the evaluations of specific areas reveals are comparatively greater numbers of young for the past 20 years has recently come to a Switzerland, and the Netherlands, more deficits and development trends and can serve people. Although women in most countries stop, this is mainly because the proportion of people over the age of 55 and more women as an orientation aid for political decision- and regions are now having more children than young people in the population is already at a are employed than was the case before – in makers. was the case several years ago, the increase very low level. other words, these countries and regions are is only slight, and even if the trend continues making better use of their potential workforce. it will impact on the age structure only in the At the same time, unemployment has fallen long term. At the same time, life expectancy is considerably (or, as in Austria, has remained at * Here we should note that the European countries not rising, which is a further factor increasing the a very low level). included in our more detailed survey could only be proportion of older people in the population. considered as a whole. If we were to examine them at the regional level as well, Stockholm, Oslo, and Akershus as well as three other Swedish and Norwegian regions would all be ranked ahead of Upper Bavaria in the overall evaluation.

10 Lifeworlds in Europe Interim score labour market 2008 Labour market 2008/2012 Interim score labour market 2012

better than 1.8 The interim score for the labour market is composed of indicators showing better than 1.8 1.8 to under 2.3 the proportion of various groups of the population in employment and the 1.8 to under 2.3 2.3 to under 2.8 unemployment ratio. The interim index shows how well the potential working 2.3 to under 2.8 2.8 to under 3.3 population has been used in individual regions and countries. Over the past 2.8 to under 3.3 four years the labour market situation has improved markedly in Central 3.3 to under 3.8 3.3 to under 3.8 European countries like Poland and Germany. In the crisis-hit countries from 3.8 to under 4.3 Spain to Great Britain and from Ireland to Greece there are more people 3.8 to under 4.3 4.3 to under 4.8 without work than there were four years ago. 4.3 to under 4.8 4.8 and worse 4.8 and worse

Lifeworlds in Europe 11 A number of Polish regions have developed in Education: rising levels almost with respect to education and technology The economy: growth despite the crisis a similarly positive direction. In 2006 Poland everywhere are the regions of southern Germany, which still occupied the lowest position in the labour have a highly qualified workforce and have In most regions and countries, GDP and market league table, along with southern Italy. In the course of the general upturn on invested heavily in research and development. disposable per capita income in 2009 – the A number of regions in eastern Germany and the labour market, both Poland and These areas are characterised by a high level most recent year for which we have data – in northern and southern France only fared Germany have managed to decrease of innovation, which translates into a large were higher than four years earlier. Great slightly better. Like some Polish regions, most youth unemployment considerably; in the number of registered patents. At the bottom of Britain, however, experienced a serious regions in eastern and northern Germany Berlin Institute’s indicator system this is a the table are regions in Spain, Italy, and Poland recession in 2008/09 in which GDP and have not only dealt well with the crisis, they component of the education, science, and as well as the former East Bloc countries where disposable per capita income fell sharply. are actually in a better position now than technology indicator. Poland had one of the an innovative economy that includes research Exceptions to this were London and North- they were before. Southern Italy, on the other worst scores on this indicator in 2006 and has become established in only a few centres. East Scotland, where oil continues to bring in hand, remains near the bottom of the scale. As since then has risen to the lower section of high revenues. A number of regions in France was the case several years ago, not even one the middle-ranking countries. The region The educational level of the workforce has also showed a lower economic performance person in two of working age is in employment around Warsaw is way ahead of the rest of risen in almost all regions and countries since in 2009 than in 2004/05, as did Iceland and here – or at least not in official employment. the country in this respect and is on a par 2006 – if only because the up-and-coming regions of Denmark, Sweden, and Hungary. Moreover, less than a third of the women are with many West European regions. generation of employees are on average better The Spanish economy also contracted economically active. educated than their parents and are more considerably in 2009, but growth in the years The EU countries and regions are at very likely to have gone to university. The level of prior to this had been so high that GDP and At the other end of the scale, some regions of different stages on the path from an industrial investment in research and development as disposable income were still well above their Great Britain proved unable to maintain their to a modern knowledge society. As was the well as the number of patents registered at 2004/05 levels. very positive scores. The unemployment ratio case four years ago, the Central and East the European Patent Office fluctuates in the has risen considerably, even if the country as European countries lag behind Western regions from year to year. Therefore no overt Overall the majority of EU countries and a whole is still in the top group with respect and Northern Europe, as do the southern upward or downward trend can be discerned regions have improved their interim score to labour market indicators; this is more than regions of Spain and Italy, where youth compared with four years ago. Generally for the economic indicator. Both the data can be said of Spain, whose regions were unemployment is particularly high. These speaking, however, companies and state from 2009 and those from 2004/05 showed already doing badly in 2006 and have since economically weak regions may become institutions in most countries and regions that many former East Bloc countries have deteriorated further with respect to labour caught up in a vicious circle whereby an are tending to spend slightly more money not yet caught up economically with the market indicators. economy that lacks innovation triggers out- on research and development than they did states in Western and Northern Europe. migration of young, well-qualified people to before. Overall those regions where there was The basic distribution of economic power regions offering attractive job opportunities. a lot of investment in the past and where this in Europe showed little change, with the These already structurally weak areas then investment has been successfully translated economic powerhouses continuing to be lose the young talent they had. into innovation (in the form of new patents in Switzerland/southern Germany/western being registered) have remained in a good Austria, the Netherlands, and Scandinavia. The European centres of innovation are position. While in a few smaller countries like Austria located in rich countries, above all in or the Netherlands economic performance is Switzerland, western Austria and southern evenly distributed, in Italy, Spain, Germany, Germany as well as in the Netherlands, Poland, and Great Britain there is a large Norway, and Sweden. Top of the league

12 Lifeworlds in Europe Interim score economy 2008 Economy 2008/2012 Interim score economy 2012

better than 1.8 Two of the indicators used to calculate the interim score for the economy – better than 1.8 1.8 to under 2.4 GDP and per capita disposable income – generally rise each year, meaning 1.8 to under 2.4 2.4 to under 3.0 that a steady improvement in the economic score is the norm. Therefore one 2.4 to under 3.0 3.0 to under 3.6 would expect this year’s evaluation to show an improvement for most regions 3.0 to under 3.6 and countries over the level four years ago. And this is indeed the case, 3.6 to under 4.2 3.6 to under 4.2 which makes the exceptions – i.e., those countries and regions that are in a 4.2 to under 4.8 worse position than before – particularly conspicuous. The map shows that a 4.2 to under 4.8 4.8 to under 5.4 number of British and French regions as well as Iceland have yet to overcome 4.8 to under 5.4 5.4 and worse the effects of the economic and financial crisis. 5.4 and worse

Lifeworlds in Europe 13 wealth discrepancy between different parts Consumer mood during the crisis Consumer surveys such as the GfK-Trendsensor In the countries most affected by the crisis of the country. The distance between eastern Konsum provide information about the consumers hold a more gloomy view not only and western Germany in economic terms People in the countries and regions of Europe subjective side of economic development of the future, but of the present too: on average has, however, lessened. In France wealth is are aware of changing economic conditions in the individual countries. How do people they believe that the current financial situation relatively evenly distributed between the and respond to them. This enables them to assess their financial situation? Do they view in their private household has deteriorated regions. Only the region around the capital give a subjective evaluation of their personal the future with optimism or are they afraid significantly since the beginning of the crisis. still stands out considerably, although France’s economic situation. Here it is not only the of losing their jobs in the coming years and In 2007/08, 20 percent of consumers in the rigid centralism seems to have been mitigated conditions in their own region or country that the financial hardship this would entail? nine countries surveyed said that they were somewhat in recent years, and consequently have a role to play but also the situation in This survey collects data every two years at least well provided for and that they could regions in both the south-west and south-east Europe as a whole and worldwide. on underlying trends in private consumer afford quite a few things, in other words, they of the country are showing positive economic behaviour and the consumer mood in the nine were subjected to few material constraints. trends. Obviously, of the indicators used to produce countries surveyed (eight EU countries and By 2010 this share had fallen to 17 percent. the index, labour market indicators will Russia). Particularly in Spain and Great Britain people have the strongest and most direct effect on saw themselves as materially worse off than Health: life expectancy rising income and hence on the material situation In 2009/10 more than one employed person two years earlier. More than a quarter of of consumers. Therefore their mood and in four in the nine European countries Spaniards and almost a third of Italians said The indicators for health and climate subjective evaluation of their own economic thought their job might be threatened.* This they were either barely managing to make ends protection have improved in nearly all regions. situation are likely to be directly affected by represented only a slight rise over 2007/08. If meet or were in financial difficulties. Only in The trend towards higher life expectancy in this. If people are afraid of losing their jobs – we look at individual countries, we can clearly Germany – where the upswing on the labour Europe continues unabated. Infant mortality in independently of whether this fear is justified discern the influence of the actual labour market was most marked – did the proportion most EU countries had reached a consistently in individual cases – consumer confidence market situation. In Germany and Austria of those positively assessing their own low level by the mid-1990s and since then falls. the upswing gave rise to a buoyant mood. financial situation rise. has fallen again slightly. Yet life expectancy There the share of people afraid of losing their in Eastern Europe continues to be lower than job fell by more than a third. In Austria only in Western Europe, and statistically speaking slightly more than one person in ten expressed more babies die there before their first uncertainty, while in Germany the figure was birthday. over 17 percent. In France, Italy, Great Britain, and Spain employees were more pessimistic Most states also succeeded in lowering about the future. Fear of unemployment rose emissions of the main greenhouse gas carbon particularly sharply in Spain – from 14 to 25 dioxide. Moreover, in all countries a greater percent. proportion of electricity consumed now comes from renewables than was the case a few years ago.

* In order to be able to compare the figures with 2007/08, those respondents who answered “Impossible to tell at the moment” were excluded from the calculation.

14 Lifeworlds in Europe POTENTIAL PURCHASING POWER: POPULATION DENSITY AND INCOME

Population density and average purchasing The largest numbers of people per square Of the EU countries analysed in more detail in In terms of income Norway and Switzerland power of the inhabitants together provide kilometre are to be found in the capital cities this study, the Spanish regions of head the league table. And in general people information about the potential purchasing and surrounding regions. London and Moscow Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura in the in regions with flourishing economies tend to power of a region. In densely populated are by far the most densely populated capital south-west of the country have the lowest have a particularly high average income, such regions many potential consumers live in a cities, followed by Vienna and Berlin. The population density with 25 and 26 inhabitants as in the greater metropolitan areas of certain small area – and in places where people have precise population density in urban regions, per square kilometre, respectively. They thus capitals and other big cities in the western EU. a lot of money at their disposal they can spend however, also depends on whether only form a sharp contrast to the region around In these conurbations with high population more on consumer goods. In rural areas, densely populated city areas are included the capital, Madrid, where 780 people live in density, the size of the service sector tends by contrast, there are few people, and their or, as in Paris, the more thinly populated a single square kilometre. In Great Britain the to be higher than average, and this is where disposable income and hence their purchasing surrounding area as well. Other areas where contrast between the thinly populated north of attractive and well-paid jobs are concentrated. power tends to be lower than in more densely people live very close together include the Scotland and the regions around Manchester populated areas. Ruhr region of Germany, Paris, Madrid, large is particularly stark. In Poland, by contrast, the London, the capital of Great Britain and parts of southern Britain and the British population is relatively evenly spread. Fewer Europe’s most important stock exchange Population density depends, on the one hand, Midlands, and almost the entire Netherlands. than one person in eight lives in a metropolitan location, was badly hit by the financial crisis, on geographical and climatic conditions and region there, whereas in the Netherlands, yet it has still managed to retain its ranking on the other on economic structures and Viewed in national terms the biggest contrasts Great Britain, and Germany the figure is more as the region with the highest incomes potential. High mountainous areas, barren are those between the EU and Russia, and than one person in three. nationwide. There is a marked difference in steppes, or desert-like regions are more thinly within a country those between Russia’s purchasing power between this urban centre populated than fertile plains or coastal regions regions. Whereas in Moscow each square and the British periphery. In the British regions with a pleasanter climate. Urban centres kilometre is home to more than 9,000 people, High purchasing power in the north and with a lower economic performance, per capita and the areas surrounding them provide and in St. Petersburg more than 3,000, in most west purchasing power is around a third lower. In plenty of jobs in industry and services and other Russian regions the figure is lower than Spain and Italy, too, average purchasing power consequently many people live there. In mainly 100 and in many areas in the eastern part of In all the countries we surveyed the population decreases the further south one goes, whereas agricultural areas the number of inhabitants the country not even as high as ten. Almost one was not only concentrated to a greater or in countries like Austria and Germany it is per square kilometre is much lower. There is person in three in Russia lives in a region with lesser extent in the urban centres and the more evenly distributed. a tendency for the concentration of people fewer than 20 people per square kilometre. surrounding areas; these people also tended in urban regions to intensify over time, for However, the population in these large Russian to have more disposable income to spend on in modern knowledge societies new jobs are regions is not distributed evenly, but is usually consumer goods. mostly generated in areas where there are concentrated in the and cities. already companies, research, and educational GfK purchasing power is calculated on the institutions as well as a critical mass of human basis of recent data on net household income, resources. More varied cultural programmes consumer spending of private households, and also draw people from remote rural areas. other more general economic data for each country. Prognoses for the current year are also used.

Lifeworlds in Europe 15 Population density (inhabitants per square under 5 Compared with the EU countries, many parts of Russia kilometre), 2010. Data for Scotland and 5 to under 10 are almost devoid of people. The population is strongly concentrated in the cities and in the western part of the Saxony: 2008; Russia: 2009 10 to under 20 (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat) country. In the EU countries thinly populated regions 20 to under 50 are usually either mainly rural and structurally weak, 50 to under 100 like those in Poland and eastern Germany, or else they 100 to under 150 have unfavourable climatic or geographical features. 150 to under 300 This applies to the extreme north of Europe as well as to southern Italy or the Spanish interior. On the Iberian 300 to under 600 Peninsula the population is concentrated mainly on the 600 to under 1,000 northern Mediterranean coast and in greater Madrid. 1,000 and more

Four of the seven regions with the highest In some EU countries the economic and With respect to purchasing power Europe Russia disposable income (taking inflation into average disposal income are in Germany: financial crisis that began in 2007/2008 has as a whole continues to be divided into two account) has risen sharply over the past ten Upper Bavaria, Stuttgart, the Darmstadt region made a noticeable dent in people’s purchasing halves by a line separating the former East years. Yet at the same time social inequality together with the financial centre Frankfurt power, whereas in other countries it has Bloc countries from the states further west. has increased. A broad middle class with am Main, and Hamburg. The inhabitants of actually risen. Thus four years ago Great Thus people in Poland and Russia are less strong purchasing power is emerging only London, greater Paris, and Vienna also have Britain was still at the top of the nine countries prosperous than in the other EU countries. In slowly. Muscovites and inhabitants of the high purchasing power. surveyed in this study, yet today it lags some Chukotka Autonomous in the far east of way behind Austria, France, and Germany.

16 Lifeworlds in Europe GfK per capita purchasing power in euros under 4,000 The Swiss and Norwegians have by far the highest in the NUTS2 regions, 2011/12 4,000 to under 7,000 average incomes, followed by the inhabitants of the areas around Vienna, London, and Paris and the (Source: GfK Geomarketing) 7,000 to under 10,000 economically flourishing regions of southern Germany 10,000 to under 13,000 and the rest of Austria. People in these countries and 13,000 to under 16,000 regions have almost twice as much money at their 16,000 to under 19,000 disposal as in the region of Russia with the highest 19,000 to under 22,000 incomes, the City of Moscow, and three times as much as the region around Warsaw, which is where Polish 22,000 and more purchasing power is highest. The calculation does not, however, take account of differences in price levels between the countries. If it did, it would show that the differences in living standards are slightly less than the the country have a level of purchasing power populated areas in eastern Russia this high people lives mainly from breeding reindeer and differences in euro purchasing power. that far exceeds the national average and yet figure is most likely a statistical anomaly, fishing. Other areas such as , situated is only comparable with the poorer regions of for lower taxes mean that many companies east of the Urals, have become rich on account Spain and Italy. have registered their headquarters here, thus of the huge oil and gas reserves. By contrast, a driving up GDP. The population of only 50,000 number of republics in southern Russia, such The many national and international as Chechnya, Ingushetia, and Kalmykia, have companies in the Russian capital offer well- particularly low incomes. paid jobs, whereas in the extremely thinly

Lifeworlds in Europe 17 POPULATION DEVELOPMENT

The population of the EU as a whole is growing. populated, often gain inhabitants at the In France, Spain, the Netherlands, and baby-boom generation grows old from about However, this growth is predominantly occurring expense of the periphery. An exception here is Great Britain, everything pointed towards 2020 onwards and their mortality increases, in the countries to the west of the former Iron the economically extremely underdeveloped population growth over the past decade. More the decline will accelerate further. Stable Curtain. By contrast, in a number of regions in republic of Ingushetia in the North Caucasus, people were born than died, and immigration populations or even growth are, however, still Poland, eastern Germany, and many Central and which showed by far the highest population exceeded emigration. By contrast, in Germany, possible in the future. Great Britain, France, East European countries the population has growth – 50 percent. The populations of Austria, and Italy, population growth derived and the Netherlands currently show a positive declined over the past decade. In Russia almost the neighbouring republics of Dagestan and entirely from a positive migration balance. natural population balance – in other words, all regions have lost significant numbers of Chechnya also grew considerably. In Chechnya While in Poland there was an excess of births there are more births than deaths. On the inhabitants, and Russia as a whole has shrunk women on average bear 3.4 children, while in over deaths, this was more than compensated one hand, women are having a comparatively demographically by more than 3 percent. In Ingushetia the population grew by a quarter in for by emigration. As a final point, the Russian large number of children, and on the other, Great Britain, Spain, France, the Netherlands, 2000 alone because of the many thousands of population declined despite the positive these countries’ populations are being swelled and Austria almost all regions have gained refugees fleeing from Chechnya. migration balance because the number of by immigration of young people, who start inhabitants. Great Britain’s population has deaths far exceeded the number of births. families in their new homeland and thus grown by a good 5 percent, that of Austria by 7 generate further population growth. percent, and that of Spain by almost 15 percent. The west is growing, the east is In the regions with the largest relative growth in shrinking Only migration will bring future growth In 2025 Germany will still be the second most Spain, the Netherlands, and Russia, the populous country in Europe after Russia. population has increased by more than a fifth The greatest population losses over the These trends are likely to continue and But in the longer term Europe’s demographic since 2000. past decade were experienced by Magadan intensify in the decades to come, with balance will shift: prognoses suggest that by and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug population development determined mainly 2050 both France and Great Britain will have Generally speaking, the cities and metropolitan in eastern Russia. These areas each lost by migration movements within the EU and more inhabitants than Germany. In Poland, regions of highly developed countries attract around a fifth of their inhabitants. Fourteen from non-member countries. For wherever too, the population is set to decrease in the more inhabitants than the remote, economically other Russian regions also lost 10 percent the fertility rate has been below 2.1 for some future, even though currently there are more weak areas. One exception is France, where the or more of their populations. Of the eight EU time – and this applies to most European births than deaths there. Throughout almost population as a whole is growing and where countries surveyed in more detail in this study, countries – the trend towards natural the whole of Eastern Europe the number of the metropolitan regions grew less than the population decline of this order of magnitude population decline will not be reversed in children born fell dramatically following the country as a whole between 1997 and 2008. occurred only in a few regions of eastern the medium term. Small or childless families end of communism. And the low birth rate In countries like Russia or Germany, where the Germany. have become the social norm. Most people do since the 1990s not only means that a segment population is declining or stagnating, the urban not want a large number of children, so that of the population is missing but also that the regions, which are usually already densely with each generation the number of potential number of potential parents in the future will parents dwindles. Particularly in eastern be smaller, thus leading to further population Germany and in many eastern EU countries decline with a certain time lag. there is a shortage of young people. These areas are likely to be Europe’s demographic losers in the future too. When the big post-war

18 Lifeworlds in Europe Population development in percent from 2000 to under – 20 In the past decade Europe has grown most strongly in 2010 (Brandenburg: 2001 to 2010; Greece: 2000 – 20 to under – 15 the western regions – from Iceland to Great Britain and France to Spain. At the top of the table comes Ireland, to 2009; in each case the population level on 1 Jan) – 15 to under – 10 (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat; own calculations) which gained almost a fifth more inhabitants over this – 10 to under – 5 period. By contrast, many East European countries – 5 to under 0 have lost inhabitants, as have some regions of 0 to under 5 Germany, particularly in the east and in the traditional 5 to under 10 industrial centres of the Ruhr und Saar. 10 to under 15 15 to under 20 20 and more

Russia, too, will shrink demographically. has a young population structure and is Prognoses predict significant population experiencing steady in-migration, as well as growth for only a few regions. These include parts of the North Caucasus, southern Siberia, Tyumen Oblast in the Urals, which today and Moscow and environs, which as an urban centre attracts internal migrants from other parts of Russia.

Lifeworlds in Europe 19 Projected population development in percent from under – 20 In large parts of Europe the population is still 2010 to 2025 (Greece: 2009 to – 20 to under – 15 growing. However, because in many countries and 2025; Spain: 2010 to 2021; Russia: 2011 to 2026; – 15 to under – 10 regions fertility rates have been at a low level for in each case the population level on 1 Jan) several decades, the numbers of inhabitants in those – 10 to under – 5 places have started to sink or at least are set to do (Source: – 5 to under 0 so in the future. Only those areas that are attractive Eurostat; 0 to under 5 to migrants and/or have high fertility rates have Rosstat; 5 to under 10 maintained stable populations or have even grown. Instituto The predicted population development shown here 10 to under 15 Nacional de is based on the population prognosis Europop2008 Estadística; own 15 to under 20 published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the calculations) 20 and more European Union. The figures for Spain are based on the latest calculations by the Spanish National Statistics Institute and already take account of the end of the major wave of migration prior to 2008. Although the Spanish prognosis is only for the period up to 2021, development trends are likely to remain similar in the period up to 2025. In the other seven EU countries studied in more detail here, the change to migration figures has been much less dramatic than in Spain.

20 Lifeworlds in Europe FERTILITY

There is a belt of countries running through gained personal freedom is expressed in more The differences are becoming smaller Successful state measures include adequate the EU where women on average have more individual life planning. One aspect of this and high-quality childcare (including for children. In some regions the average is two or trend is that many women are having their first In Russia, by contrast, there are big differences children under the age of three) as well as more, so that in these places each generation child later if they indeed have children at all. between the regions, although, as in the generous payments to parents for a limited replaces or exceeds the one before. In these much smaller EU, the differences have been period of time after the birth. In countries countries the population is likely to remain Although fertility varies considerably across shrinking for several decades. Only four with a high fertility rate there is a higher relatively stable even without immigration. the EU, the regions within the individual Russian regions still have a fertility rate higher social acceptance of mothers who have young This “fertility belt” runs from Scandinavia in countries show rather similar trends. The than 2.1 and hence high enough to allow the children and still go out to work. the north through Great Britain, Ireland, and largest discrepancies are to be found in Spain population to grow without in-migration. the Netherlands to France. and Italy. The number of children women These are the three mountainous republics Overall the European trend towards having have and the number of women who remain of Chechnya, Altai, and Tuva as well as the ever fewer children and smaller families seems Ireland tops the fertility league, with a total childless seems to be influenced more by Chukotka Autonomous Okrug in the far east to be coming to an end. In most countries fertility rate of almost 2.1 children per woman. national factors such as family policy and of the country where the population is poor (with the exception of Germany, Hungary, and In France and Great Britain, the figure is 2.0, traditions than by regional particularities. and still has a traditional lifestyle. The fertility Portugal), women are starting to have more in the Netherlands 1.8. In Germany, Poland, rate is particularly low, on the other hand, in children than they did ten years ago. While it is Austria, Italy, and Spain, on the other hand, the western Russia, particularly in urban areas. unlikely that as many children will be born as fertility rate has been low for many years and The discrepancy between urban and rural were in the 1950s and 1960s – lifestyles and is currently about 1.4. In Poland and Russia, regions is thus still clearly discernible in social norms have changed too fundamentally as in almost all EU countries east of the former Russia, whereas in the EU it has grown smaller for that to happen – the phase of extremely Iron Curtain, the fertility rate fell dramatically in recent years. But in the EU fewer children low fertility in which the number of children following the political upheavals of 1989/90 are born in the urban centres as well; it has per woman was less than 1.3 seems to be over. and has risen again only very gradually even long been the case that women in cities are In those European countries where fertility though the political and economic uncertainty more likely to do paid work and their average was very low over a long period, the number of the immediate post-communist era would educational level tends to be higher. Both of births will continue to diminish over the seem to have at least partly been overcome. of these factors mean that they have fewer next decades even if the number of children None of these countries will regain the fertility children, have them later, or remain childless. per woman rises slightly, for the low birth rates of the pre-1989 period in the foreseeable rates in the past mean that there will be fewer future, however, for having few children has How can the major differences in fertility potential mothers in the future. become the new social norm, and the newly between countries be explained? In the EU, the average number of children per woman is particularly high in countries where for many years it has been made easier to combine children and a career – for instance in France or Scandinavia. This suggests that family policy certainly does influence fertility.

Lifeworlds in Europe 21 Average no. of children per woman (total under 1.30 Whether children in Europe grow up with a small or fertility rate), 2009 1.30 to under 1.45 large number of siblings depends on where they live. In an area of Europe stretching from Scandinavia to (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat) 1.45 to under 1.60 France women have a comparatively large number of 1.60 to under 1.75 children. In the rest of Europe the average number of 1.75 to under 1.90 children per woman is around 1.4 almost everywhere. 1.90 to under 2.05 The regional differences are similarly large in Russia 2.05 and more where economically successful urban regions have lower fertility rates, whereas in the poor mountainous regions of the south and in the thinly populated north- east they are on average higher.

22 Lifeworlds in Europe MIGRATION

Nowadays migration movements are the most The crisis has changed migration Whether these trends will continue and In many regions the positive migration balance important factor in population development patterns whether immigration countries like Italy and should not obscure the fact that these regions in most EU countries, for in many countries Great Britain will continue to attract people are simultaneously also losing inhabitants the population is growing mainly as a result Migration also, however, depends on current from elsewhere is thus by no means certain, to other regions and countries. Many rural of immigration. Migration trends, in turn, political and economic circumstances in the but depends on political and economic regions in Spain and Italy, for instance, depend on so-called push factors in the countries of origin and destination. Thus developments within and outside Europe as attract migrants from other economically country of origin and pull factors in the country the immigration figures for any given year well as immigration legislation. Prognoses weak countries in Africa, for instance. But in of destination. People leave their homeland represent only a snapshot of that point in predicting population growth in the EU over comparison with other EU countries they are because of unfavourable economic, political, time. In the years prior to the 2009/10 period the coming decades certainly assume that the themselves economically underdeveloped and or social conditions, or because they know being examined here, Spain, for instance, stream of immigration from outside the EU thus have high rates of emigration as well as or hope that they will find better conditions experienced a wave of immigration; between will remain constant. immigration. elsewhere. With their relatively high levels 2003 and 2007, 600,000 more people of prosperity and political stability, Norway, came to Spain than left. With the onset of the Where the migrants to each country mainly The situation is similar in Russia, where the Switzerland, and the core EU countries act as economic and financial crisis, which had a come from depends – apart from the current rural north-eastern regions experienced magnets for immigrants from poorer parts of drastic impact on the Spanish labour market, political and economic situation – largely a major out-migration trend in the period the world. Almost half of those who migrated immigration declined significantly, while at on geographical or linguistic proximity and immediately following the break-up of the into one of the EU’s 27 member-states in 2008 the same time more than three times as many also on historical connections. In France, for Soviet Union, in some cases losing half their came from a country outside the EU; people people left the country than had done in the example, the largest group of migrants are population to more westerly regions or to also tend to migrate from poorer to richer mid-2000s. In 2011, for which we do not yet from the country’s former Algeria. regional capitals. In the years 2009/10 these countries within the EU itself. have regional data, the migration balance for Immigrants to Spain often come from regions continued to have a negative migration Spain as a whole was negative for the first time neighbouring Morocco, from Romania, or balance as did the European north of the in many years. Many Spaniards are currently from South America. Many of Germany’s country, even though Russia as a whole has seeking jobs and future prospects in other EU immigrants are from Poland, whereas the gained inhabitants as a result of in-migration. countries. The number of Spaniards emigrating number of immigrants from Turkey has Whereas migrants from abroad – especially to Germany, for instance, doubled between declined considerably over the past ten years. labour migrants from other post-Soviet 2008 and 2011. After a number of years with a The largest group of immigrants to Great states – are fairly evenly spread across the slightly positive or sometimes slightly negative Britain are from the Indian subcontinent. By country because of regional work permits, migration balance, Germany gained almost far the largest numbers of migrants to Poland internal migration goes almost exclusively 280,000 inhabitants through immigration in are Polish citizens returning home. This in one direction: away from the already 2011. In other countries, such as Great Britain, indicates that circular migration, especially thinly populated rural areas and towards the the positive migration balance has remained labour migration, plays a greater role in economically powerful regions around major fairly constant. Poland than in countries like Germany or cities like Moscow, St Petersburg, Novosibirsk, Great Britain, where most immigrants are not or Yekaterinburg. German or British citizens. Many migrants to Russia also have Russian roots, although most of them come from other countries of the former Soviet Union.

Lifeworlds in Europe 23 Average migration balance per 1,000 under – 6 If we look at the average figures for 2009 and inhabitants, 2009/10 (Great Britain: 2009) – 6 to under – 4 2010 we see that apart from Poland, all the nine countries investigated more closely in this study (Source: Eurostat; own calculations) – 4 to under – 2 gained inhabitants through immigration. But this – 2 to under 0 applies only to the countries as a whole: some regions 0 to under 2 in Spain, Germany, Poland, Russia, and northern 2 to under 6 France experienced considerable migration losses. 6 to under 10 One reason for this is that foreign migrants are not evenly distributed throughout the country. Another is 10 and more migration movements within countries. Particularly well-qualified people are moving from peripheral areas that have less attractive jobs and are far from cultural and economic centres to the major cities and Migrants are on average younger than the migrants from other parts of the country, nor a cultural infrastructure. With respect to metropolitan regions. general population, and conversely, older migration means a bonus in human capital. the educational level of foreign migrants the people are usually less mobile. For this reason The less attractive regions, however, lose the picture is mixed. Whereas immigrants in Great the average age in regions with a high rate of inhabitants that they actually need for their Britain or Poland, for example, have a slightly in-migration is often lower than in regions of own economic development but to whom they higher average level of education than the out-migration. More highly educated people can offer neither sufficiently appealing jobs native population, migrants to the southern EU are generally also more willing to move within states or to France are often poorly educated. a country. For regions that attract internal

24 Lifeworlds in Europe AGE STRUCTURE

Life expectancy is increasing throughout The old age dependency ratio is highest in In other regions, such as southern Spain and An aging centre, a young east Europe. Men in the EU can on average expect Germany and Italy. In Germany the proportion Italy, it is the migration of young people from to live to almost 77, women to more than 82. of old people in the population is particularly abroad that has tended to keep the average In the EU countries the populations remain When people retire they have 15 to 20 years of high in rural regions of eastern Germany, age and hence the old age dependency ratio young in areas where the fertility rate is life still ahead of them. At the same time, the where the fertility rate plummeted in the at a low level; women in these regions on relatively high and where young people are number of births has been stagnating at a low 1990s and where many young people have average have fewer than 1.5 children. In in-migrating. In Russia, however, there is level, so it is not only individuals who are living moved away in the last 20 years. For that Spain migration has fallen sharply since the another factor that plays a major role in the longer – populations as a whole are aging. One reason the population of working age is beginning of the crisis in 2008. If it remains young age structure of many regions: men have way of measuring this is to take the so-called particularly low. For similar reasons, the at this low level, the regions of southern Spain an average life expectancy of only just under old age dependency ratio, which gives the coastal region of Liguria in north-west Italy may in future age much more sharply than 60, while women live on average until they ratio of over-64-year-olds per 100 inhabitants also has a comparatively old population. Many prognoses have so far predicted. In Great are 73. Life expectancy is hence so low that between the ages of 15 and 64. In other words, people from southern Italy moved there in the Britain and the Netherlands the relatively high a large part of the population does not even it tells us how many people of retirement age 1960s to work at the ports of Genoa and La fertility rate and constant immigration has so reach retirement age. It is particularly low in have to be supported by those of working age Spezia and in the steel and oil industries. From far ensured a relatively young population. This some regions of the Far East, in Siberia, and in in statistical terms – as well as how much a the 1970s onwards structural change led to also applies to most regions in France. Only North-West Russia. In Poland and other East society is burdened economically by those the economic and demographic decline of the Limousin in the rural centre of the country European countries life expectancy is higher who are no longer capable of working. Parallel region. Those who moved away were mainly has aged disproportionately, because young than in Russia, but there, too, men in particular to the rise in life expectancy, however, the the young, so the population as a whole there people tend to move away to the cities while do not live as long as in the other seven EU average point at which age-related illnesses has aged considerably. older people move there to enjoy a quiet life in countries analysed in more detail in this study. start to occur is also shifting upwards, so older the provinces. This pushes the Polish old age dependency people may not necessarily be a burden on Migration movements mean that the old age ratio below the EU average. In addition, until society. They may go on working for longer dependency ratio in capitals and other major 1989 the average number of children born to and may engage in valuable voluntary work. cities and their environs is often lower than every woman was still more than two, so that For this reason many European countries are in remote rural areas. Especially young and despite steady emigration Poland still has a planning to raise the statutory retirement age middle-aged people move to these centres relatively large number of people of working in the coming years. to study or look for a job. Conversely, older age. people of working age and pensioners tend to leave the urban centres – if they can afford Beginning in roughly 2015, the old age to – and move to more tranquil regions. Thus dependency ratio in many EU countries will the metropolitan regions of London, Paris, rise sharply again, for that is when the baby- and Madrid as well as Berlin and Hamburg boom generation born shortly after the Second have fewer older inhabitants and more people World War will start to retire without being of working age than the respective national replaced in terms of numbers by the following average. generation. At that point labour – at least among the native population – will probably

Lifeworlds in Europe 25 Old age dependency ratio (number of over-64-year- under 8 Compared with the EU countries Russia has a very low olds per 100 inhabitants aged 15 to 64), 2009 8 to under 12 average age with comparatively few pensioners. This is, however, due neither to an intelligent family policy (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat; own calculations) 12 to under 16 nor to a high fertility rate, but is mainly a consequence 16 to under 20 of low life expectancy. Poland’s population is also 20 to under 24 comparatively young, because there the fertility rate 24 to under 28 was high until 1989. Eastern Germany currently has 28 to under 32 the oldest population – followed by some and Italy – because so many young people have 32 to under 36 moved away. 36 to under 40 40 to under 44 start to be in short supply. Thus the group 1.1 (approximately), but it still means that the of 40- to 60-year-olds, who will soon reach future working population will have to support retirement age, will in some countries with low a growing number of older people everywhere. birth rates like Germany or Italy be 1.5 times as The latter will then go on working longer and large as the group of 0- to 20-year-olds, who in many cases have to make do with a lower must gradually replace the older members of pension, because the number of people paying the population. In countries like Great Britain pension contributions and taxes will shrink. and France where a relatively large number of babies are born, the ratio is a much healthier

26 Lifeworlds in Europe Predicted old age dependency ratio (number of over- under 8 Society is set to age considerably in all European 64-year-olds per 100 inhabitants aged 15 to 64), 8 to under 12 countries over the next 20 years. Life expectancy is likely to continue to rise slightly, while the younger 2030 (2031 for Russia) 12 to under 16 (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat) generations in most regions and countries will be 16 to under 20 smaller in numbers than those of their parents. Many 20 to under 24 European countries experienced a sharp rise in the 24 to under 28 fertility rate in the post-war era. This large baby-boom 28 to under 32 generation will start to retire in the 2020s, leading to a clear rise in the old age dependency ratio. 32 to under 36 36 to under 40 40 to under 44 44 to under 48 How the aging population will be regionally average. The regions on the periphery, by 48 and more distributed is likely to follow the patterns contrast, will continue to lose some of their already visible today. In the future the capital already small number of young people to out- cities and other economically flourishing migration. regions are likely to go on attracting young migrants of working age, and their populations will hence remain younger than the national

Lifeworlds in Europe 27 EMPLOYMENT AND EDUCATION

The unemployment rate only ever mirrors such as Austria or the Netherlands, a figure of A country’s economic development and its 20 have at best a basic secondary school a particular moment in time – economic below 5 percent means that there is almost full degree of fitness for the future is dependent education. There are a similar number of fluctuations, political measures, and employment. not only on how many people find a job but people in this position in Italy. In the other demographic shifts mean that it changes from also how productive the working population members of the EU studied here the share of year to year. From roughly 2009 onwards, In four regions in the countries we surveyed is and how well equipped it is for future unskilled workers was much less than a third. the economic and financial crisis, which had more closely, the unemployment rate in 2011 economic and technological progress. Here the begun in 2007, began to have a major impact (2010 for Russia) was less than 3 percent: level of education of the workforce is decisive, In Italy, moreover, only 18 percent of the on national labour markets – however, not Bolzano (Italy), Zeeland (the Netherlands), with graduates of a tertiary institution being workforce has a tertiary education. This is the in all the countries surveyed here and not Tyrol and Salzburg (Austria), and Moscow regarded as highly qualified. smallest share of the nine countries studied to the same extent everywhere. Thus the (Russia). At the other end of the scale were all here. Only the regions around the major cities unemployment figures for 2011 (for 2010 in the regions of southern Spain as well as three In Northern Europe the level of education is of Genoa (Liguria) and Rome (Lazio) have more Russia) allow us to measure how susceptible Russian republics: Tuva (Siberia), Chechnya, generally excellent. Much of the workforce in than 20 percent with a tertiary qualification. national and regional labour markets are to and Ingushetia (both North Caucasus), with Great Britain and the Netherlands is highly The fact that the three regions with the lowest crises. rates of more than 20 percent. In Ingushetia, qualified, and even in Spain with its very level of highly qualified workers are in the one person in two was jobless. high unemployment rate many of those in north of the country, which is economically Of the eight EU countries we studied more work have gone through tertiary education. far better off than the south, can be attributed closely, Spain was worst affected by the crisis. This shows that a high level of qualification to the high employment rate there. In Friuli, The unemployment rate more than doubled Major differences in Germany and Italy in itself does not protect the workforce from the Autonomous of Bolzano, and between 2007 and 2011, so on average one upheavals on the labour market and economic Aosta even people with low qualifications person in five, and in the southern regions While almost every country has regions crises. Nevertheless, the number of highly are rarely unemployed. Hence their share of as much as one person in four, was without with a conspicuously high or low rate of qualified workers as a proportion of the total the working population rises. In Austria, too, a job. In Italy and Great Britain, too, many unemployment, in some countries the workforce rises when many people with low the proportion of highly qualified members people became unemployed as a result of the differences between individual regions or qualifications lose their jobs – and this is of the workforce is low at 22 percent. Yet the crisis, albeit fewer than in Spain. In France parts of the country are particularly stark. what happened in Spain as a result of the economic and labour market situation is good. and Russia the unemployment rate rose only In Germany, for example, the south has a crisis. The share of the population without There are two reasons for this. First of all, at 20 slightly. In Poland it continues to be only half flourishing economy based on manufacturing either vocational training or a degree is above percent the share of low-skilled people without what it was at the beginning of the 2000s, and services, while the rural, eastern part of average in Spain – almost half of those over a higher secondary school or vocational although it has risen again after reaching the country is structurally weak. Whereas in qualification is relatively small. The majority of its lowest rate in 2008. In Germany – in the southern Germany fewer than 5 percent of Austrians, in other words, have benefited from middle of the crisis – unemployment is actually the labour force are seeking work, in most the comprehensive vocational training system lower than in the preceding years. And in regions of eastern Germany it is around 10 and have obtained at least some kind of mid- other Central and North European countries percent. The rift in Italy between some regions level qualification. Secondly, economic activity in northern Italy and the Mezzogiorno in the is heavily concentrated in the capital, Vienna, south is similar. which produces around a quarter of total Austrian GDP, and there far more workers have a tertiary education than the national average.

28 Lifeworlds in Europe Number of people unemployed as a percentage of under 4 The record unemployment rate was held by Spain in the labour force, 2011 (Russia: 2010) 4 to under 6 2011. In the southern part of the country, roughly 25 percent of the labour force was without a job. (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat) 6 to under 8 The situation was similarly bad in the mountainous 8 to under 10 republics of southern Russia and only slightly better 10 to under 14 in Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Greece. By contrast, 14 to under 18 Austria, the Netherlands, southern Germany, Norway, 18 to under 22 and Switzerland had almost full employment despite the crisis. In these countries fewer than one person in 22 and more 20 was looking for work.*

* Unless otherwise specified, this study always uses the unemployment rate as defined by the International Labour In almost all countries the regions around fields, attracting well-qualified migrants The cities with the most highly qualified Organization (ILO). This figure is arrived at through surveys the capital and other major cities have the from other parts of the country. The public workforces are London and its environs, the and is not the same as the ratio of those officially registered as unemployed – but does enable international comparison. highest proportion of highly qualified workers. administration also employs many people with Spanish Basque country, Madrid, Utrecht in the The ILO classifies people as unemployed who are at least In urban regions there are more universities a tertiary education. Netherlands, and the region around Paris. 15 years of age, have worked less than one hour in the whose graduates often stay in the city where week the survey was conducted, are actively seeking work, they studied. In addition, there are more and would be available to start work within the next two weeks. Employed and unemployed together constitute the companies in these areas offering jobs in economically active population or labour force. Wherever knowledge-intensive services and high-tech this study refers to the official state figure for the registered unemployment rate, this is explicitly stated.

Lifeworlds in Europe 29 Number of persons of working age with higher under 15 In most countries the proportion of highly qualified education or vocational training (ISCED 5/6) as a 15 to under 20 people is larger in the regions around the capital than the national average, since these are the places where proportion of the working population between the 20 to under 25 ages of 25 and 64 (in Russia as a proportion of the many international companies in the research and 25 to under 30 whole working population), 2010 service sectors are located. The public administration 30 to under 35 also often offers graduates attractive jobs. London (Source: Eurostat; 35 to under 40 can boast the largest proportion of graduates in its Rosstat) 40 to under 45 working population, while some regions of northern Italy come bottom of the table. This has to do with the 45 and more high employment rate in northern Italy where even people without higher education will easily find a job in the trades or in tourism. Conversely, the relatively high ratio of graduates in Spain can be explained by the The Russian capital, Moscow, also has the registered as working at all. The rest are either fact that during the crisis those with low qualifications country’s highest share of highly qualified unemployed or work in the black economy. were the first to lose their jobs. This means that the proportion of graduates among those still employed workers, closely followed by the Republic Novosibirsk, by contrast, is a centre for Russian automatically rises. of Ingushetia in the North Caucasus. There, science nicknamed the “Russian Silicon however (as in the neighbouring republic of Valley”, offering many jobs for researchers and North Ossetia-Alania), there are not in fact a engineers. very large number of graduates. Indeed, only one person in five of working age is officially

30 Lifeworlds in Europe THE REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF BIOGRAPHICAL LIFEWORLDS 2 IN EUROPE TODAY AND IN THE FUTURE The graphics on the following pages show the The distribution of a lifeworld across the Share of each lifeworld as a Great Britain Italy current share of each biographical lifeworld population of a region or country essentially percentage of the total population GB1 Scotland I1 North-West in those European regions for which data are depends on two factors: the age structure of over 14 in 2011 GB2 North-West I2 North-East available together with projections up to 2025. the population and the economic situation. In GB3 North-East I3 Central Italy under 2.5 GB4 Midlands I4 South and the Islands places where comparatively few older people GB5 South-West and Wales Poland 2.5 to under 4 GB6 London Region Biographical lifeworlds (after Gerhard live the proportion of people in the education PL1 North 4 to under 5.5 GB7 South-East Kleining) are a method of dividing populations phase and in the work and family phase is PL2 North-East 5.5 to under 7 PL3 West into segments along two dimensions. The correspondingly higher. Conversely, their share France PL4 Central Poland 7 to under 8.5 F1 North horizontal dimension plots a person’s life is lower if the average age of the population is PL5 Lódz´ Region F2 Western Paris Basin 8.5 to under 10 PL6 South-West through three different phases: education, higher and many people have already retired. F3 Eastern Paris Basin 10 to under 11.5 PL7 South working and bringing up a family, and Projections of future development trends are F4 Paris Region PL8 South-East retirement. The method further subdivides based mainly on the population prognoses for 11.5 to under 13 F5 West 13 to under 14.5 F6 East Russia the second of these three phases into two three age groups: those under the age of 20, F7 South-West RUS1 Central Russia 14.5 to under 16 age groups and according to activity – paid 20- to under-60-year-olds, and those aged F8 South-East RUS2 City of Moscow work and unpaid housework. Along the 60 or older. The study also looks at possible 16 to under 17.5 F9 Mediterranean Region RUS3 North-West 17.5 and more RUS4 Southern Russia & North Caucasus vertical dimension, individuals in each phase shifts in the age structure within the group of Spain RUS5 Volga are divided into three hierarchical groups 20- to 59-year-olds, as well as at the current E1 North-West RUS6 Urals according to their socioeconomic status: economic and social situation in the regions Development trend for E2 North RUS7 Siberia each lifeworld until 2025. E3 North-East RUS8 Far East high, middle, or low. Those in the retirement and projected future trends. Prognosis based on the E4 Central Plateau Germany phase are divided according to gender and probable development E5 East D1 Schleswig-Holstein into two social classes – working class and of the age structure and E6 South D2 Hamburg socioeconomic situation of D3 Bremen middle class. Single older people with their The Netherlands the region D4 Berlin own household are classified in a separate NL1 North D5 Lower Saxony lifeworld. NL2 West D6 North Rhine-Westphalia Source for all maps: European NL3 East D7 Hesse Consumer Study 2005 to 2011 NL4 South D8 Rhineland-Palatinate (published by GfK Verein); Rosstat D9 Saarland Austria D10 Baden-Wurttemberg (Russia); Instituto Nacional de A1 North-West Estadística (Spain); Eurostat (other EU D11 Bavaria A2 North-East D12 Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania countries); own calculations A3 South D13 Saxony-Anhalt D14 Brandenburg D15 Thuringia D16 Saxony

Lifeworlds in Europe 31 Share of the lifeworld school pupils as a 2.5 to under 4 The regional distribution of the lifeworld percentage of the total population over 14 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 school pupils in the population is determined 5.5 to under 7 largely by demographic developments. Places 7 to under 8.5 where many children were born during the 8.5 to under 10 1990s now have a large population of 15- to 10 to under 11.5 19-year-olds. The same applies to regions to which many families with children have migrated. Many young people leave the place where they grew up when they begin studying – particularly if they are from rural areas where there are few universities and colleges. The The lifeworld of the education phase generally determined by the socioeconomic comparatively high income. Whether students proportion of students thus depends not only status of their families. Members of the in the future become top earners in their on demographics but also on the density of Youth, more than other phases of life, is a time lifeworld students usually have little respective regions depends on whether the higher education institutions in a region. In of personal and social individualisation. Young purchasing power. After graduating, however, region offers sufficient numbers of attractive addition, different European countries have people draw boundaries between themselves these people typically have a good chance of jobs that correspond with their qualifications different age structures and proportions of and their parents, often looking to current attaining a good professional position and a or whether graduates find better professional students in their populations. Poland and youth culture for orientation. The financial opportunities elsewhere and hence migrate. situation of the lifeworld school pupils is

32 Lifeworlds in Europe Share of the lifeworld students as a percentage under 2.5 of the total population over 14 in 2011 2.5 to under 4 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7

Russia, for instance, have comparatively young in which the average number of children the other hand, as in France or Great Britain, During the education phase the distribution populations and therefore a higher share of the per woman has been comparatively low for the fertility rate is still almost two children of the population into the three hierarchical population in the lifeworlds of the education decades, for where fewer children are born per woman, the school pupils lifeworld is categories of socioeconomic status begins to phase. there will also be a smaller number of potential likely to remain relatively stable in the future. become established. parents. This applies to Poland, Germany, and Nevertheless, their share of the population In future, however, the numbers in the school Italy. Rural areas of out-migration will also will still tend to fall, because these countries pupils and students lifeworlds are set to lose young people to other regions. Where, on too have aging populations, in part because of diminish in all areas where few children are rising life expectancy. being born. This applies especially to regions

Lifeworlds in Europe 33 Share of the lifeworld top-ranking young persons under 2.5 separate lifeworld of their own. Through the as a percentage of the total population over 14 2.5 to under 4 high family income they too have sufficient in 2011 4 to under 5.5 financial resources for personal development. 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 The top-ranking lifeworlds are well 8.5 to under 10 represented above all in regions with 10 to under 11.5 advanced economies. Modern manufacturing 11.5 to under 13 industries and services go hand in hand 13 to under 14.5 with a large number of people working in managerial and administrative positions together with a low proportion of unskilled The top-ranking lifeworlds of the work professional positions with good future potential to the full in the future with few workers and hence of low-income women and family phase prospects, and are striving to be successful. financial constraints. Those who belong to the and men. The top-ranking lifeworlds of Not only are they able to fulfil their material lifeworld of top-ranking mid-lifers have already the working population are thus to be Lifeworlds with a good income and high wishes at a young age, they also have good established themselves as a managerial elite. found above all in regions with strong and purchasing power are scarcely limited by prospects of being able to realise their Whereas working men and women in this viable economies. But their share of the economic constraints. The lifeworld of top- lifeworld differ little in their lifestyles and ranking young persons consists of people preferences, top-ranking housewives form a who have just started their careers, hold

34 Lifeworlds in Europe Share of the lifeworld top-ranking mid-lifers under 2.5 In Poland, Spain, and southern Italy the as a percentage of the total population over 14 2.5 to under 4 lifeworlds with high purchasing power are in 2011 4 to under 5.5 less well represented. In Russia their share 5.5 to under 7 of the population over 14 is greater than the 7 to under 8.5 average purchasing power and the general 8.5 to under 10 economic situation would suggest. This is 10 to under 11.5 because a larger proportion of the Russian 11.5 to under 13 population as a whole is of working age, for 13 to under 14.5 low life expectancy means that many people scarcely reach pension age. Nevertheless, compared with low-income women and men, population also tends to be high in areas with The lifeworld of top-ranking housewives children per woman may (as it does in France) the proportion of the top-ranking lifeworlds is comparatively young populations, such as in also tends to constitute a large share of the also contribute to the large share of this much smaller in Russia than elsewhere. the finance and services centre London and population in regions where the economic lifeworld in the population of the Netherlands, its environs as well as in the Paris region. In situation is favourable. In the Netherlands for after having children mothers tend – at Russia, too, the top-ranking lifeworlds are many women belong to this group, because least for a certain period of time – to assume concentrated around the capital, Moscow. although the majority of adult females are in the main responsibility for the household. paid employment, three-quarters of them work part-time. The comparatively large number of

Lifeworlds in Europe 35 Share of the lifeworld top-ranking housewives under 2.5 as a percentage of the total population over 14 2.5 to under 4 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10 10 to under 11.5 11.5 to under 13

In future the lifeworlds of young and middle- lifeworlds of middle-aged and older people Poland, for example. Regions around capital with young, highly qualified members of the aged people with strong purchasing power of working age are in many cases expected cities and other economic centres are likely workforce in particular moving their place of will either remain constant or grow in those to remain largely unchanged until the mid- to continue attracting young, highly qualified residence or employment either temporarily or regions which, on the one hand, are already 2020s, while the lifeworld of top-ranking members of the workforce and their families permanently. Capitals and other large cities are economically powerful today and are likely to young persons is already declining. This shift from other parts of the country. At the same particularly attractive to this well-educated, remain so, and in which, on the other hand, the in the age structure within the work and time, these regions manage to retain graduates mobile generation. age group of 20- to 60-year-olds is numerically family phase of life is particularly strong in because they offer them attractive jobs and stable. In regions whose populations will age career prospects. Mobility within the EU is in the future because of low fertility rates, the likely to increase still further in the future,

36 Lifeworlds in Europe Share of the lifeworld mid-ranking young persons 2.5 to under 4 Members of the workforce with medium as a percentage of the total population over 14 4 to under 5.5 purchasing power are fairly weakly in 2011 5.5 to under 7 represented in those regions with a 7 to under 8.5 favourable economic climate and where the 8.5 to under 10 share of top-ranking lifeworlds is therefore 10 to under 11.5 large, for instance in Austria, Great Britain, and France. On the other hand, their share of the total number of consumers is also lower in areas where the working population is small and there are many older people. One example of this is Italy – although the The mid-ranking lifeworlds of the work Italy they are even the largest group in the free of economic constraints. The majority of mid-ranking lifeworlds make up a high and family phase middle phase of life. Those belonging to the working women and men in the mid-ranking percentage of the work and family phase mid-ranking lifeworlds have income levels lifeworlds have an above average income, there. The mid-ranking lifeworlds in the work and that offer them a certain degree of financial while the housewives in this category are family phase make up between a fifth and a security. However, their lives are not entirely frequently completely economically dependent quarter of the population over the age of 14 on the family’s main earner. in most countries. In the Netherlands and in

Lifeworlds in Europe 37 Share of the lifeworld mid-ranking mid-lifers as a 2.5 to under 4 percentage of the total population over 14 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10 10 to under 11.5 11.5 to under 13

The share of the population of the lifeworld to the emergence of a young middle class, with middle socioeconomic status than the is in the work and family phase. Within this of mid-ranking young persons is often particularly around the capital, Warsaw. The low average purchasing power would suggest. life phase, however, the proportion of mid- or higher in those areas where the share of proportion of older members of the workforce The main reason for this is that because of low top-ranking lifeworlds is small relative to that the lifeworld of top-ranking young persons belonging to the lifeworld of mid-ranking mid- life expectancy many people don’t even reach of low-income women and men. is comparatively low, such as in Spain. In lifers is, however, still comparatively low. In retirement age and therefore all lifeworlds of Poland the top-ranking lifeworlds still make Russia more people belong to the lifeworlds the retirement phase are small. For this reason up a relatively small share of the population, a larger proportion of the Russian population yet the economic boom that followed the end of communism in the early 1990s has led

38 Lifeworlds in Europe Share of the lifeworld mid-ranking housewives as a 4 to under 5.5 percentage of the total population over 14 in 2011 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10 10 to under 11.5 11.5 to under 13 13 to under 14.5

The proportion of the population belonging to instance southern Spain and Italy. Here there The development of the lifeworlds of people in generation of mid-ranking young persons will the lifeworld mid-ranking housewives shows are not so many jobs on offer, so that women the working phase of life is largely dependent already have started to decline. This applies whether the lower middle classes make up a whose husbands earn an adequate income are on the demographic development of the 20 to to regions of Poland, Spain, and Italy, for medium or high share of the total population. often engaged only part-time or not at all in 59 age group, which varies considerably both instance. This applies, for example, to the Netherlands, gainful employment. between and within countries. In some cases France, and Spain. The proportion of this the lifeworld of mid-ranking mid-lifers is likely lifeworld is also rather high in regions with to remain stable or grow by 2025 in regions a traditional view of the family that are with aging populations, whereas the next moderately successful economically, for

Lifeworlds in Europe 39 Share of the lifeworld low-income men as a 5.5 to under 7 Austria only around 20 to 25 percent of people percentage of the total population over 14 in 2011 7 to under 8.5 in the work and family phase belong to these 8.5 to under 10 lifeworlds, in Poland and Russia it is more than 10 to under 11.5 half and in southern Spain still as much as 45 11.5 to under 13 percent. 13 to under 14.5 14.5 to under 16 In these countries and regions low-income 16 to under 17.5 women and men make up a larger proportion 17.5 and more of the total population, either because wages are low or because unemployment is high. The economic structure is characterised more than Low-income women and men with few resources and usually have to In the geographical distribution of the low- elsewhere by agriculture, manufacturing, and supplement the family income by going out to income lifeworlds there is a conspicuous basic services. These sectors of the economy The lifeworlds of those in the work and family work. Basic everyday worries and needs often discrepancy between Poland and Russia on offer few well-paid jobs. Within countries the phase with low income tend to have limited play a primary role in these people’s lives. the one hand and the rest of Europe on the economic resources. The women in particular other. An exception is southern Spain, where in this category have either a below-average or the proportion of low-income women and men very low income. In families with a traditional in the population is much higher than in the division of roles, women run the household other EU countries. Whereas in France and

40 Lifeworlds in Europe Share of the lifeworld low-income women as a 2.5 to under 4 young people who leave school prematurely percentage of the total population over 14 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 is likely to play a role, since those who fail 5.5 to under 7 to finish secondary school are very likely to 7 to under 8.5 earn only a low income later. This ratio is 8.5 to under 10 relatively high in Spain, southern Italy, and 10 to under 11.5 some British regions. There the proportion 11.5 to under 13 of the population of low-income women and 13 to under 14.5 men is likely to remain constant in the future. 14.5 to under 16 In regions that have managed to develop into 16 to under 17.5 modern service economies, on the other hand, 17.5 and more the proportion of low-income women and men share of these lifeworlds in the population as The numbers of people in this group are is likely to fall or remain stable in the future a whole is usually higher in rural areas than in likely to be influenced in the future above all while the proportion of people of working the capital or other large metropolitan regions. by the decline in the size of the 20 to 59 age age is likely to increase overall. This applies, Moscow has a particularly low share of this group. This is likely to be particularly dramatic for instance, to the Mediterranean region of group compared with other parts of Russia. in areas where there is already little youth France. today and where many young people are migrating elsewhere. In addition, the ratio of

Lifeworlds in Europe 41 Share of the lifeworld working-class elderly under 2.5 men as a percentage of the total population 2.5 to under 4 over 14 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10

Working-class elderly women and men generally below average or very low. After In France, the Netherlands, and Great Britain of a higher fertility rate but because of low retiring from working life they therefore do not fertility rates have declined less in recent average life expectancy. Men especially often The lifeworlds of working-class elderly women have major resources at their disposal. Couples decades than they have in other European do not live to retirement age. A large majority and working-class elderly men are, like those in this group often have a traditional division countries. Therefore, relatively speaking, the of people of retirement age in Russia belong with low income in the work and family phase, of roles. share of older people in the population is to the working-class lifeworlds. In Italy the subject to financial constraints. The incomes low – and many of them are financially quite share of older people in the population is of those belonging to these lifeworlds – either well off. Russia’s population is also on average already around a third, and hence very high, pensions or state transfer payments – are younger than elsewhere, albeit not because

42 Lifeworlds in Europe Share of the lifeworld working-class elderly women under 2.5 as a percentage of the total population over 14 2.5 to under 4 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10 10 to under 11.5

and almost half of them – a very large share incomes. This applies, for example, to Poland likely to be low in those regions where there (long-term) unemployed are unlikely to be very compared with the rest of Europe – belong to and Spain, southern Italy, and the British are already many retired people and few prosperous when they retire. For these reasons the working-class lifeworlds. Midlands and north. In all the countries people of working age, for there comparatively the number of working-class elderly people in, analysed in this study the share of retirement few people will enter the retirement phase in for example, Poland, Spain, and southern Italy, People in rural areas that are or were mainly lifeworlds is likely to increase by the mid- the coming decades. Those members of the is likely to rise disproportionately in the future. agricultural and in areas where many low- 2020s. Future growth in these lifeworlds is work force who retire in the coming years and skilled workers are or used to be employed who today have only low incomes or are even in industry or agriculture tend to have low

Lifeworlds in Europe 43 Share of the lifeworld middle-class elderly men as a under 2.5 percentage of the total population over 14 in 2011 2.5 to under 4 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10

Middle-class elderly women and men belong to the lifeworld of older people living The share of the population in these lifeworlds elderly women and older people living alone is and older people living alone alone in some cases lead a self-determined is comparatively high in Great Britain and considerably higher than the share of elderly existence in their own households, while Austria as well as in Italy with its already men, since men in Russia have much lower The lifeworlds of middle-class elderly women others – particularly those who are very old – considerably older inhabitants. In France life expectancy and often scarcely reach and middle-class elderly men usually have an are dependent on support or nursing care. the regional distribution of materially well- retirement age. above-average or high income. People in these off older people shows that some of them lifeworlds are thus subject to fewer financial have moved to the Mediterranean or Atlantic constraints when they retire. Those who coasts after retiring. In Russia the share of

44 Lifeworlds in Europe Share of the lifeworld middle-class elderly women under 2.5 as a percentage of the total population over 14 2.5 to under 4 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10

Because of the general aging of populations share of the population today and where the the Netherlands with a large middle-class of the share of these lifeworlds will grow share of 20- to 59-year-olds is low. There a mid-lifers still in the workforce, which in future numerically throughout Europe by 2025, while relatively small number of people will retire will age considerably, the number of materially the number of people of working age will over the next few decades. In countries like well-off older people is likely to grow more either decline or at most grow only slightly. than the lifeworld of working-class elderly The expected rise in the number of older people. people will be smaller in those regions where the over-59 age group already makes up a big

Lifeworlds in Europe 45 Share of the lifeworld older people living alone as a 2.5 to under 4 percentage of the total population over 14 in 2011 4 to under 5.5 5.5 to under 7 7 to under 8.5 8.5 to under 10 10 to under 11.5 11.5 to under 13

46 Lifeworlds in Europe THE STRUCTURE OF THE BIOGRAPHICAL LIFEWORLDS IN EUROPE’S 3REGIONS TODAY AND IN 2025 In all nine countries investigated in this study growing, albeit not to the same extent in all the work and family or the retirement phase. The graphics in the following chapter show both the average age of the population and countries and regions. With respect to the Roughly the same proportion of consumers regional demographic trends in the various the number of older people are increasing to lifeworlds of the education phase and the in these biographical phases has only meagre countries and make prognoses about how the a greater or lesser extent. Otherwise, though, work and family phase, not all countries are purchasing power. Around a fifth belongs to individual lifeworlds will change in the future. demographic trends and the corresponding moving in the same direction. In places where the well-off top-ranking lifeworlds in the work Whether lifeworlds grow or shrink depends shifts in the distribution of the lifeworlds vary a comparatively large number of children were and family phase. chiefly on demographic developments. But considerably. born in the past, the younger lifeworlds are economic trends, too, may play a role in shifts still growing, whereas in other places they in the balance of the various lifeworlds. Today, somewhat more than a quarter of have already begun to decline. consumers in these countries belong to the lifeworlds of the retirement phase. This share In all nine countries taken together just under Education Work/Family Retirement is likely to increase everywhere by 2025, since a third of the population over the age of 14 Top- Top- the number of people aged 60 and older is belongs to the middle-class lifeworlds of Top- ranking ranking ranking young house- mid-lifers persons wives Middle- Middle- class class elderly elderly Development of Share of each lifeworld Development Mid- Mid- men women Older Source for all figures: Mid- as a percentage of the School ranking ranking people the population trend for each European Consumer ranking pupils Students young house- living according to age total population over 14 lifeworld until 2025. Study 2005 to mid-lifers persons wives alone group until 2025 in 2011 Prognosis based 2011 (published Working- Working- on the probable by GfK Verein); class class under –35 under 2 development of Rosstat (Russia); elderly elderly to under –25 2 to under 5 the age structure Instituto Nacional de men women Low Low and socioeconomic to under –15 5 to under 8 Estadística (Spain); income income situation of the to under –5 8 to under 11 Eurostat (other men women region EU countries); to under 0 11 to under 14

own calculations status Socioeconomic 0 to under 5 14 to under 17 to under 15 17 and more Phase of life to under 25 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older to under 35 – 1 % – 8 % + 21 % 35 and more Development of the population according to age group in all nine countries until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 47 Population in 2011 62,498,612 “Splendid isolation” was the term coined to describe Britain’s go-it-alone foreign policy GREAT BRITAIN Projected population in 2025 65,507,284 in the late 19th century, but it is also an apt Number of children per woman in 2011 1.98 description of the country’s geographical Median age in 2011 39.7 status as an island nation – or to be more GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 16,946 precise, one main island and a number of smaller islands. Situated in the North Sea, Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 28.4 Britain has succeeded in staying out of most Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 28.0 conflicts and most alliances on the European Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 26.6 continent. This fundamental attitude can still be felt in the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, as the country is officially called.* Although a member of the EU, Britain has participated only to a limited extent in European integration. As well as retaining the British pound as its currency and still using non-metric measuring units, it has adhered to its own way of doing things on a host of other issues as well. As an island it lacks any direct external borders with other European states, and yet this too has proved to be a disadvantage, for many remote areas of the country have had to go it alone economically without any chance of benefitting from the boom in certain regions of the European continent.

* In this study the term Britain is used as a synonym for the United Kingdom (consisting of England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland). Northern Ireland is not included in the portraits of the region because there were no data available about the distribution of lifeworlds there.

48 Lifeworlds in Europe Britain’s economic and cultural centre is Liverpool in the north-west and Glasgow and Another centre of the British financial industry Demographic shifts in Europe London, which stands out so much from the Edinburgh in Scotland. Britain’s population besides London is Scotland, in the north of the rest of the country that its statistical values of roughly 60 million is thus more evenly British Isles. Scotland, too, suffered decades Of the nine countries studied, Great Britain has the strongest population growth and according to in some cases have raised those for the distributed over the country than, say, that of decline in the post-war era, but has since prognoses will be the most populous of today’s country as a whole. The economic situation of France with its even more centralised succeeded in bringing about an economic members of the EU by 2050. By then, Germany will of the regions hence depends among other structure. Overall, the population of Britain is renaissance fuelled not only by the finance probably occupy only third place. The population of things on how near or far they are from the still growing slightly, since the fertility rate, at industry but also by a solid electronics and Great Britain is expected to have already grown by British capital, or at least on how good the a current average of 1.9 children per woman, is IT sector as well as the largest oil reserves around 10 percent by the mid-2020s. In absolute terms Russia will experience the greatest population loss. transport connections to the capital are. All comparatively high. In addition, since the late in the European Union. This has enabled Prognoses expect its population to decline by around of Britain’s most powerful economic regions 1990s, Britain has gained at least 100,000 – Scotland to prosper and to form a self-assured 17 million people. are to be found in greater London and the in some cases more than 200,000 – people a counterweight to the dominance of London. surrounding areas. Economic indicators for year through a positive migration balance. In –12 more remote areas like Cornwall and Devon demographic terms, then, the United Kingdom 140 on the country’s south-west peninsula, by is doing quite well and is not aging as much as contrast, are far below the national average. many other European countries. Like that of 130 Although the distance between London and France, the population of Britain will probably 120 Bristol and between London and the Welsh exceed that of Germany by around 2040. 2011 2025 capital, Cardiff, is about the same – roughly 110 200 kilometres – the road and rail links to Migrants are attracted by one of Europe’s 2050 Bristol are much better and hence one reason strongest economies, which includes the Percentage change 100 for Bristol’s much more positive economic aviation, arms, and car industries as well as 2011 to 2050 90 development. chemicals and pharmaceuticals. The economy –13 is, however, dominated by services, especially 23 80 London is not only economically dominant in the banking and insurance sectors, making 13 but is also the country’s most populous urban London the world’s most important financial 9 70 area. Nevertheless, there are also a number of centre. For that reason, however, the current large cities in other parts of the country that financial crisis has hit Britain much harder 60 act as a counterweight to London: Birmingham, than most other countries. At the same time, 4 in the Midlands, for example, is Britain’s broad swathes of Britain’s former industrial 50 second-largest city; then come Manchester and regions have still not recovered from the –10 40 Population 2011, decline of heavy industry in the twentieth projections for 2025 and century. Regions like Wales, the Midlands, and 30 2050 in millions and the north-east are still structurally weak and percentage change from thus exert a downward pull on the country’s 4 20 2011 to 2050 (Source: Eurostat; overall productivity and hence on per capita 7 10 United Nations (Russia); GDP, which is not among the highest in Europe. Instituto Nacional de In terms of per capita purchasing power Britain 0 Estadística (Spain)) is not one of Europe’s leading lights either, Italy

but finds itself at the upper end of the middle- Spain Russia France Poland Austria

ranking countries. Germany Great Britain Great The Netherlands The

Lifeworlds in Europe 49 Great Britain Back in the 19th century, Scotland, like parts average young and well-educated population. The overall positive economic situation in of northern England, was still a centre for Conditions are somewhat worse in nearby Scotland is reflected in the large proportions Scotland heavy industry. However, unlike England, Glasgow, Scotland’s largest city and home to of the young and middle-aged top-ranking Scotland has managed at least in part to almost one Scot in four. While unemployment lifeworlds among the population over the age effect an economic turnaround following the is higher in Glasgow than in Edinburgh, the of 14. The share of the lifeworld of top-ranking Geographically speaking, Scotland occupies decline it experienced in the mid-20th century. city has nevertheless been able to boast strong young persons is the second largest in Britain the northern third of the British Isles. The traditional Scottish finance industry is economic growth in recent years. By contrast, after greater London. Students also make up Having already gained a degree of political flourishing once again and has been joined by both the rural areas of southern Scotland an above-average share of the population. If independence, the Scots are planning to new economic sectors such as the IT industry that border England, and northern Scotland Scotland invests its high oil revenues wisely, it hold a referendum in 2014 on complete located in “Silicon Glen” in central Scotland. including the Highlands and most of Scotland’s will be able to offer its graduates a future. The secession from Britain – a sign of the strong Income and jobs are also generated by almost 800 islands are thinly populated and number of young members of the workforce national consciousness and confidence in tourism, which profits from Scotland’s unspoilt economically weak. With the exception of is at any rate likely still to rise slightly, while this part of the United Kingdom. Of course, natural scenery. the oil industry in the north-east, these parts the lifeworlds of mid-lifers will tend to shrink its independent way of thinking also stems of Scotland live mainly from tourism, sheep- slightly. The lifeworlds with high purchasing from the fact that Scotland is one of Britain’s Scotland’s most important source of income farming, and fishing and therefore have a power will, however, probably remain economically stronger regions, with an since the 1970s, however, has been the below average economic performance. relatively stable numerically speaking. unemployment rate well below the British exploitation of its oil and gas reserves off average in some areas. Economic indicators the north-east coast, the largest in the EU. such as per capita GDP or disposable income This is where Aberdeen – Scotland’s third- are only slightly below those for the country largest city with a population of somewhat as a whole, which are in any case inflated more than 200,000 – is located. Like the by the figures for greater London; in many nearby Shetland Islands, Aberdeen has an Education Work/Family Retirement other regions these indicators are much unemployment rate only half that of the British Top- Top- lower. Although the fertility rate in Scotland average, and average incomes in this region Top- ranking ranking ranking is lower than the British average, the Scottish are exceeded only by the south-eastern boom young house- mid-lifers persons wives population is set to increase by about 10 regions around London. Thanks to the oil and Middle- Middle- percent by 2025, because people are moving gas industry, north-east Scotland’s economic class class to Scotland encouraged by the positive indicators are so good that in statistical terms elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older statistics for education and training as well as they raise the level for Scotland as a whole. Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking research and development. Although Scotland pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers is home to only 5.2 million of the 62 million Scotland’s real centre, however, is a belt persons wives Working- Working- alone British citizens, it has 15 universities of which running through the middle of the country class class several are among the oldest in the world. where all its other major urban areas apart elderly elderly men women from Aberdeen are located. These include Low Low the capital, Edinburgh, with just under income income 500,000 inhabitants. This ancient city men women

with many listed buildings is home to one of status Socioeconomic Europe’s most important financial centres. Its correspondingly high level of productivity and Phase of life low level of unemployment attract an above 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 3 % + 1 % + 23 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

50 Lifeworlds in Europe Great Britain population declined by 40 percent between Overall the population of north-west Britain population here. The only region in Britain 1931 and 2006. In the meantime, however, will continue to grow slightly in the coming where this share is lower is the neighbouring The North-West the city has succeeded in reversing the years, mainly because of the above-average north-east region. The percentage of students trend and is now growing again. Alongside fertility rate. However, with the exception of is also low, despite the fact that the area is a relatively high average number of children Manchester and its wealthier suburbs, the home to several reputable universities. As in The north-west of England, which runs along per woman, migrants attracted by up-and- region has little to offer its new inhabitants other industrial regions, an above average the coast to the south of Scotland, is overall coming and a redeveloped in economic terms. Average incomes are well proportion of elderly men and women one of the most densely populated regions city centre are mainly responsible for this below the national average, although this is are working-class, and the pensioners of of the United Kingdom. More than four population growth. Many of the city’s new partly compensated for by lower taxes and tomorrow, too, are in many cases likely to million people live in and around the cities of citizens are young, so that Manchester’s living costs. have low incomes. Nevertheless, especially Manchester and Liverpool, which together with population is much younger than the British in Manchester and environs, a young middle several adjacent medium-sized cities form a average. The former industrial city now The generally difficult economic situation in class seems to be establishing itself. In terms major conurbation. The parts of the region thrives in sectors like services, finance, the north-west is reflected in the fact that the of numbers, all the lifeworlds of the education directly bordering on Scotland and Wales, culture, and the media. top-ranking lifeworlds with greater purchasing and work and family phases are likely to by contrast, are mainly rural and much more power make up only a small share of the remain more or less stable, whereas those of thinly populated. In Cumbria, on the border Liverpool has gone through a similar the retirement phase are expected to grow. with Scotland, for instance, the most important development process. Here it was the major economic sectors are agriculture and tourism. port with its numerous docks that was mainly However, this remote region is also known as affected by economic changes. Liverpool has, Britain’s “energy coast”, because this is where however, been less successful than its eastern a whole series of power stations are located neighbour in bringing about structural generating electricity by a variety of methods. change. Per capita GDP in greater Liverpool Education Work/Family Retirement The largest private-sector employer here is currently lies at barely 79 percent of the EU Top- Top- the vast nuclear energy plant Sellafield, which average, while the figure for Manchester is 96 Top- ranking ranking ranking employs 10,000 people. percent. young house- mid-lifers persons wives Middle- Middle- While the conurbation of Manchester and The unemployment rate in Liverpool is class class Liverpool contains some of Britain’s poorest considerably higher, as is the share of elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older areas, some of the regions to the south of these long-term unemployed. Although the port Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking two cities are extremely wealthy – particularly is still one of the most important in the pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers around Manchester. The city is the economic country, Liverpool’s income, alongside persons wives Working- Working- alone centre of the north-west and competes with the services sector, is nowadays drawn class class Birmingham in the Midlands for the position mainly from tourism thanks to its lively elderly elderly men women of Britain’s second most important city after cultural scene. Nevertheless, it is still one of Low Low London. Manchester has been through some Britain’s economically weakest cities and its income income women hard times, however. Having grown steadily population is continuing to decline. men

at the beginning of the 20th century as the status Socioeconomic centre of the British textiles industry, its Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 4 % 0 % + 21 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 51 Great Britain are among the lowest in Britain. Despite this unemployed is, however, to be found in the The relatively difficult economic situation gloomy economic situation, the fertility rate northern part of the region, exceeded only in north-east England is reflected in the fact The North-East corresponds roughly with the relatively high by Northern Ireland. It is one of the poorest that only a small share of the population British average and there is a certain degree regions in the entire country. The regional belongs to the top-ranking lifeworlds. Instead, of in-migration, so that in some places the administrative centre Newcastle-upon-Tyne, the region leads the country in its share of The north-east of England embraces the region population is expected to grow considerably with a current population of almost 300,000, working-class elderly men and women – a North-East, bordering directly on Scotland, by 2025. was once an important shipbuilding location. consequence of its industrial past. Given the and Yorkshire and Humber to the south. North- It now plans to promote knowledge-based economic development (or lack of it) here, it East – together with Wales and Northern The leading light of north-east England in sectors such as culture and research, but is questionable whether young people, whose Ireland – is one of the economically weakest economic terms is Leeds, the region’s largest has so far not been very successful, as the numbers are expected to increase by around corners of the United Kingdom; Yorkshire is in city. It has recently become an important continuing high unemployment rate shows. 10 percent, will one day find work in the only a slightly better position. One reason for regional finance centre, and thanks to low region. Demographic trends mean, however, this is that whereas the extreme north-east is labour costs the city also has a large retail that all younger lifeworlds will grow slightly by mostly thinly populated, further south there sector and many call centres. Sheffield’s 2025. The solid share of people with middle are several cities, such as Leeds, Sheffield, story is similar: this former centre of the socioeconomic status in the population does at and Bradford, each with around 500,000 British steel industry has retained many steel least give grounds for hope that the north-east to 700,000 inhabitants. All of these cities, manufacturers in the area, but the city has will eventually accomplish structural change. situated very close together, were important also managed to attract new industries, mainly centres of the industrial revolution and were in the services sector. Like in Manchester, hence hard hit by the structural changes that much has been done to make the city more took place from the mid-20th century onwards. appealing since the early 2000s. Since then Indeed, the entire north-east of England was the population has slowly begun to grow again Education Work/Family Retirement once a centre of the British coal industry and unemployment has fallen slightly. Top- Top- before many mines closed down in the 1990s. Top- ranking ranking ranking The region was also home to shipbuilding and By contrast, the picturesque city of York, young house- mid-lifers persons wives the iron and steel industries – sectors that with a population of some 200,000, has Middle- Middle- have declined sharply in recent decades. comparatively low unemployment. Here the class class city’s historic buildings attract many tourists, elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older For this reason unemployment continues to be creating jobs in this sector. Hull (full name Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking high, even though manufacturing here is still Kingston-upon-Hull), 95 percent of which pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers more important than in other British regions. was destroyed in the Second World War, is persons wives Working- Working- alone A consequence of this high jobless rate is that less fortunate and has yet to recover from class class per capita GDP is not even half the level of the decline of its former industries and its elderly elderly men women that in London. Average disposable incomes port. With a population of 260,000, it has Low Low one of the highest unemployment rates of all income income English , and a very large number of men women

the jobless are long-term unemployed who no status Socioeconomic longer participate in training or job creation schemes. The highest proportion of long-term Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 9 % + 4 % + 21 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

52 Lifeworlds in Europe Great Britain The largest conurbation in the East Midlands One consequence of this structural change The share of low income women and men as is formed by the triangle of Nottingham, is widespread poverty, caused by very high well as working-class elderly men and women The Midlands Leicester, and Derby. Nevertheless, this unemployment. Two districts of Birmingham is relatively high in the old industrial areas part of the region is the second most thinly have the highest unemployment rate in the of the Midlands. At the same time the shares populated area in England after the south- whole of Britain. Overall, only in north-east of prosperous people of working age in the At the centre of the British Isles lies the west. The economic situation is, however, England is the economic situation worse. top-ranking lifeworlds of young persons and Midlands, which on account of its geographical better than in the West Midlands. At around Nevertheless, the West Midlands is now mid-lifers is higher than in the regions north of position is also known as the “Heart of 20 percent, youth unemployment here was making use of its central location and easy the Midlands, indicating that structural change England”. The outer areas of the Midlands seven percentage points lower than in the accessibility to become a centre for transport, has been at least partially successful. The along the Welsh border to the west and along West Midlands in 2011. One reason for this trade, events, and conferences. Birmingham size of the young working population is even the English east coast are fairly rural, yet the is the largely rural structure, which provides central station is the most important railway expected to grow by 2025. However, many of Midlands is best known as an industrial region. many, albeit badly paid, jobs. The conurbation hub in the whole of Britain, and a number the people who will retire in the coming years For a long time it formed a centre of the British around Leicester is home to a relatively of motorways intersect here. It has recently are likely to have a rather low income. coal mining industry, and parts of the Midlands wealthy population, for here there are several even become a tourist destination: rather used to be called the Black Country, probably major companies, including two Rolls-Royce like the cities of the Ruhr region in Germany, on account of the smoking chimneys. Following factories in Derby where reactors for nuclear Birmingham has turned its old industrial the decline of many industrial sectors, the submarines and turbines are built. buildings into visitor attractions and uses them Midlands, together with the north of England for cultural events. and Wales, is among Britain’s economically The West Midlands is dominated by the City of weaker regions. Incomes are low and Birmingham and environs. This conurbation, unemployment is above average, especially which also includes Wolverhampton and long-term unemployment. Overall, per capita Coventry, is home to more than three million Education Work/Family Retirement GDP in the region is very low – in some regions people – making it Britain’s second-largest Top- Top- only 80 percent of the EU average. At the same conurbation. Almost a third of the population Top- ranking ranking ranking time its population is aging, so that by 2030 here are members of ethnic minorities, most young house- mid-lifers persons wives the share of over-60-year-olds is expected to of them from Pakistan, India, or Bangladesh. Middle- Middle- be more than five percentage points above Birmingham was once a centre of the industrial class class the national average. The only exception is the revolution where coal from the nearby elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older conurbations. coalmines was used for metal smelting and Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking processing. Now most of these industries pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers have disappeared, as has car manufacturing persons wives Working- Working- alone in Coventry, for many years the centre of the class class British car industry. elderly elderly men women Low Low income income men women Socioeconomic status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 7 % + 4 % + 22 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 53 Great Britain Nevertheless, the comparatively low labour Europe in terms of incomes. Nevertheless, At the same time, the high in-migration rate costs have attracted foreign investors to the area’s geographical isolation with more of retired people means that the south-west The South-West and Wales Wales. Although the steel works at Port than 1,000 kilometres of beautiful coastline as a whole has the highest share of middle- Talbot is still Wales’ biggest employer, the is a major tourist attraction. The local tourism class elderly men and women as well as of region is now dominated by light industry and sector is the country’s second largest after older people living alone. Since these people South-west Britain is divided into two main plastic manufacturing and processing as well London. In terms of population the south-west generally bring sufficient financial resources regions: the peninsula between the Irish Sea as services. Other sectors are tourism and is one of the fastest-growing regions, even with them and need a place to live as well as and the English Channel with the of agriculture. Wales has so far, however, been though many young people leave the remote medical and nursing care, they also create Cornwall at its tip; and Wales to the north. unable to attract any sectors with high added parts of the region in search of work. This is jobs. Hence the retired population may hold Together with England, Scotland, and Northern value – among other reasons because it has no partly accounted for by people moving here to the key to the future for the younger generation Ireland, Wales is the fourth component of real urban centre. The mountainous north and retire, partly by the comparatively high fertility in Britain’s south-west. the United Kingdom and has some degree west are thinly populated, and two-thirds of rate of almost two children per woman. By of independence. It differs sharply from the the three million Welsh live in the south around 2025, 7 percent more 20- to 59-year-olds will England, not only culturally but economically the major cities of Swansea and Newport as live here than do today – that is the strongest as well, being one of the weakest regions of well as in the area around the capital, Cardiff, growth in the country in this age group. It is the country in this respect. For a long time it which has around 340,000 inhabitants. mainly the younger parts of this age group that lived mainly from mining – iron, silver, and will grow and hence the lifeworlds of mid- and quicklime, and above all coal. The Welsh Almost directly opposite Cardiff on the other top-ranking young persons. capital Cardiff was once the world’s largest side of the Bristol Channel is the city of coal-exporting port. With the decline of Bristol. It, too, was once a flourishing port but heavy industry, however, most jobs in this unlike Cardiff it has managed to generate new sector were lost, and to this day Wales has economic growth with a focus on financial Education Work/Family Retirement been unable to replace them. The result is a services, media, and the aviation industry. Top- Top- continuing high unemployment rate, the lowest The city’s good road and rail connections to Top- ranking ranking ranking household incomes in Britain, and per capita Heathrow Airport have proved advantageous young house- mid-lifers persons wives GDP that is way below average. Overall, the and have helped ensure that the largest city Middle- Middle- United Kingdom produces 111 percent of the in the south-west has one of the highest per class class average European per capita GDP, but in Wales capita GDPs in the country. Otherwise the elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older the figure is 30 percent lower and hence the region is generally thinly populated and mostly Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking lowest in the whole of Britain. rural. pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers persons wives Working- Working- alone In particular the of Cornwall und class class Devon at the tip of the peninsula are rather elderly elderly men women remote from the economy of the rest of Low Low the country on account of their poor road income income and rail links. The rule of thumb here is, men women

the more remote a place is, the higher the status Socioeconomic unemployment rate. Some areas of Cornwall are thus among the weakest in northern Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 6 % + 7 % + 23 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

54 Lifeworlds in Europe Great Britain The city attracts many migrants from other the highest concentration of tertiary education and instead move to the surrounding regions. parts of Britain and from abroad because it is institutions in Europe. And more than 70 Thus the predicted future growth of this age London an international centre for business, education, percent of London’s graduates stay in the city group is likely to be accounted for chiefly by research, the arts, entertainment, and tourism. after completing their studies in order to start a well-off pensioners. The population shares This is reflected in the economic data. Almost career. Yet the city also has comparatively high of the education and work and family phases The British capital, London, is the economic a third of total British GDP is generated in unemployment – among the jobless there are are comparatively high – and of these almost hub of the United Kingdom. Greater London, greater London. In statistical terms every many young people and highly qualified people a third belong to the top-ranking lifeworlds. located in the south-east of the British Isles, Londoner produces 44,000 euros a year – who have moved to the city in search of work. The up-and-coming group of mid-ranking is Britain’s smallest region in terms of area, almost double the EU average. As a result young persons is also strongly represented. but it is also the most populous of this unusually high level of productivity, On account of the young age structure, all The lifeworlds of mid- and top-ranking young in the entire European Union. Population London is where the country’s highest lifeworlds of the retirement phase make up a persons with middle to high purchasing power density in this major city is 19 times higher incomes are to be found and by far the highest smaller share of the population than the British are likely to remain stable or grow slightly by than anywhere else in Britain. A total of around purchasing power. Around 15 percent of the average. Many older people cannot or do not 2025, whereas the lifeworlds of the middle- 8 million people live in London, and greater money that British households spend comes want to afford the expensive life in the capital aged and the elderly will become much larger. London and environs is home to between 12 from greater London alone. However, living Thanks to its young, well-educated, and and 14 million. Moreover, the population is costs, too, are among the highest in the world, dynamic population London appears to be expected to grow another 13 percent by 2025. along with cities like Moscow and Tokyo. perfectly equipped for the future. Particularly in the outer suburbs women have comparatively many children, and overall In this former industrial city the proportion London benefits from continuous in-migration. of jobs in industry is now half the British At the same time, many older people are average. Instead, services are by far the most moving out of the city into the surrounding important sector and employ more than 85 Education Work/Family Retirement regions. Therefore London’s inhabitants are on percent of the workforce. Alongside rents and Top- Top- average relatively young. In 2009 the share property speculation, the finance centres in Top- ranking ranking ranking of the population under the age of 35 in the the City of London and Canary Wharf to the young house- mid-lifers persons wives inner city was more than ten percentage points east are the city’s most important economic Middle- Middle- above the British average. In 2030 the old factor. Its products are also London’s most class class age dependency ratio in this part of the city is important exports. This dominant sector elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older expected to be less than half that of the rest of makes the city, together with New York, the Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking the country. world’s leading financial centre. More than pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers 500 banks have branches in the city, and persons wives Working- Working- alone there are also numerous insurance companies class class and stock exchanges. Nevertheless, many elderly elderly men women companies from other sectors are also Low Low represented in London, for here they find the income income country’s best-qualified workforce. Thus a men women

third of the working population has a tertiary status Socioeconomic education, one of the highest ratios in the world. With almost 50 universities, some of Phase of life which are highly renowned, London is home to 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 14 % + 3 % + 18 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 55 Great Britain The areas directly adjacent to greater London Thanks to the positive economic development These future pensioners are, however, likely can all boast above average economic and relative proximity to London, all the to have high purchasing power. Even now, The South-East indicators, because they are already part of regions around the British capital have more there are more middle-class elderly men in the catchment area of the capital. A further or less positive migration balances – in other the area around London than anywhere else important economic factor is the container words, more people are moving into the region in the country. At the same time, the relatively The south-east region, which forms a ring port of Felixstowe on the east coast. As the than leaving it. At the same time, fertility high density of companies and the good around greater London, can be divided largest in the country it processes a significant rates are at roughly the comparatively high connections to the city of London mean that into two halves in terms of economic data. proportion of the container freight passing in average rate for Britain as a whole. The result the share of top-ranking lifeworlds is large. The regions south and west of the capital and out of the British Isles. Since the region’s is strong population growth, and by 2025 After London and Scotland this is also the area encompassing Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, heavy industry never had a particularly large the population of East Anglia, for instance, with the largest share of school pupils. Thus, Oxfordshire, Surrey, East and West Sussex, volume of production, it was less affected by is expected to grow by almost 14 percent. thanks to the far-reaching economic power of Hampshire, and the Isle of Wight as well as the decline in the 1980s than so many other Although the group of under-20-year-olds the capital, this part of Britain looks set for a Kent are economically the second strongest parts of Britain. Unemployment in the area and young members of the workforce is rosy future in both demographic and economic region of Britain after London. The eastern east of London, where all the towns are small growing, the population is aging nonetheless, terms. half, by contrast, encompassing East Anglia, or medium-sized is thus well under the British particularly in remote East Anglia. Thus Bedfordshire, Hertfordshire, and Essex, average. the number of people over the age of 60 while still above average, is slightly weaker is expected to rise by a quarter in the area economically than the neighbouring region. Unemployment is, however, even lower in around London by 2025 – more than anywhere One reason for this is that the easternmost the prosperous regions west and south of the else in Britain. region of East Anglia is mainly agricultural, British capital, the second strongest economic producing, for instance, more potatoes than region in the country after London. This region anywhere else in Britain. But East Anglia is is home to 8 million people, more than any Education Work/Family Retirement also home to Cambridge University, one of the other region of Britain. Nowhere else are there Top- Top- oldest and most distinguished universities in so many companies as here. They encompass Top- ranking ranking ranking the country. It has hence attracted high-tech a broad spectrum of sectors, ranging from car young house- mid-lifers persons wives companies that have established themselves manufacturing in Oxford – also home to one Middle- Middle- in several science and technology centres in a of the most famous universities in the country class class ring around the city. For this reason companies – to Internet companies in Brighton, which elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older in this region spend twice the national average have brought this picturesque city on the south Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking on research and development. coast the nickname “Silicon Beach”, to civilian pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers and military shipbuilding in Portsmouth persons wives Working- Working- alone and Southampton, which together form an class class urban conurbation with more than a million elderly elderly men women inhabitants. Another very wealthy area is the Low Low county of Surrey, directly adjacent to London, income income women where many of those employed in the financial men

sector live. status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 6 % + 5 % + 25 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

56 Lifeworlds in Europe Population in 2011 63,127,768 Almost 400 years ago the French King Louis XIV rigorously curtailed the authority of the FRANCE Projected population in 2025 66,845,886 country’s regional rulers to decide the fate Number of children per woman in 2011 2.01 of their regions and brought all important Median age in 2011 40.2 decision-making under the purview of the GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 20,007 royal court. This 17th-century organisational form, according to which all power emanates Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 26.4 from the centre, continues to dominate France NORTH Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 33.3 even today. The philosophy behind it is that Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 21.9 politics, the economy, and society are best ruled, steered, and administered from the centre. EASTERN PARIS BASIN WESTERN PARIS BASIN Today, however, this “centre” is no longer the court of Louis XIV in Versailles but the PARIS REGION central government in the capital, Paris. France’s centralised organisation is reflected EAST in the fact that virtually all its key transport infrastructure – such as the routes nationales WEST and express railway links – runs to and from Paris, where not only the most important French economic, political, and cultural institutions are concentrated but also the French themselves – Paris has almost three SOUTH-EAST times as many inhabitants as the second- largest French city, Marseille. Overall the 65 million French are very unevenly distributed across what is the EU’s largest country in SOUTH-WEST terms of area. While Paris is booming, regions in the interior and in the north and west of the country are comparatively thinly populated and economically rather weak.

MEDITERRANEAN REGION

Lifeworlds in Europe 57 However, this ubiquitous fixation on Paris has The French economy, driven chiefly by the 55 in fact been decreasing for some years now. export of cars, aeroplanes, pharmaceuticals, For one thing, the French government has electronics, and wine, has put money in introduced reforms designed to decentralise people’s pockets, giving the French a level 50 the country, such as transferring more of purchasing power roughly a third higher competencies back to regional administrations than the EU27 average. Many sectors are and deliberately relocating national institutions dominated by large state concerns that to structurally weak areas. For another, the emerged after the major nationalisation 45 countryside in France is currently experiencing wave of the 1980s. The fact that much of the something of a renaissance. Many people are economy is controlled or protected by the turning their backs on the large cities with state is a further consequence of the French their high living costs, above all Paris, to start ideal of a strong centralised state – which has 40 new lives in and small towns. What is both advantages and disadvantages. Because more, slightly smaller centres such as the third- of its relatively inflexible labour laws, France Austria largest French city Lyon or the up-and-coming has a comparatively high ratio of long-term 35 France southern cities of Toulouse and Bordeaux or unemployed, but thanks to the large state Germany wealthy regions like Alsace and the eastern sector with its many state-financed jobs the Italy Mediterranean coast are increasingly offering French government has been able to cushion The Netherlands Poland good prospects for young families and highly- the effects of the current crisis fairly well. The 30 Russia qualified people. price of this is less innovative power, reflected Spain among other things in a sub-optimal level Great Britain France still has less than half the population of productivity. Thus French per capita GDP density of Germany, but the number of is below that of other European countries 25 inhabitants is growing. Fertility rates have like Germany, Austria, Great Britain, and the remained comparatively high almost constantly Netherlands. since the Second World War, and the average 20 number of children born to every woman is the highest in Western Europe after Iceland 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 and Ireland. In addition, immigration, above all from other European countries and the Median age of the population 1950 to 2060 Even countries with many children are aging former , has also helped to swell the Projection from 2010 population. The population structure has (Source: United Nations) All nine of the countries studied here have aged since the mid-twentieth century – as has all of Europe. The therefore developed rather favourably: the reasons for this are the rise in life expectancy and the population is aging less than in other European decline in the number of children born per woman. countries and is comparatively young. The median age, which divides the population into a younger and an older half, is also likely to go on rising over the next 50 years. Whereas a steep rise is predicted until well into the 2040s for countries with relatively low fertility like Germany, Spain, or Italy, the median age is rising only slightly in the Netherlands, Great Britain and France, where many children are born.

58 Lifeworlds in Europe France is still well over the national average. Young The distribution of the lifeworlds highlights the the national average. Nevertheless, there are people have been particularly hard hit and unusual economic and demographic position some solid groups belonging to the lifeworld The North the share of long-term unemployed is almost of northern France. After Paris, which has of top-ranking young persons, indicating that ten percentage points above the European a magnetic appeal, it has the biggest share a new generation of well-qualified people has average. Unemployment is one of the region’s of youth in the population in the whole of settled here and may stay. Together with the The northern tip of France on the border biggest problems and it is the main reason why France. At the same time, Lille’s universities highest proportion of the lifeworld of mid- with Belgium is the second most densely per capita purchasing power is almost 3,000 attract students from all over the country, so ranking young persons in all of France as well populated region after greater Paris and, euros less than the French average of around students form a fairly large proportion of the as healthy population shares of mid-ranking thanks to the highest fertility rate by far of all 20,000 euros. The sluggish economy also population. However, to date the future elites mid-lifers this may be an indication that French regions, also the youngest. More than means that per capita GDP is around a fifth have tended not to stay in the north after northern France is gradually overcoming its a third of the region’s inhabitants are younger below the national level and only 88 percent of graduating because the area offers too few difficult economic situation. It is possible that than 25. However, although this is a region the EU average. jobs for highly-qualified people. For this reason in the future the lifeworld of top-ranking mid- where many children are born, there is also a the region scores rather badly in terms of the lifers with high purchasing power will remain considerable degree of out-migration. In no Northern France is certainly not a high-tech share of top-ranking lifeworlds, although the stable even if the number of 20- to 59-year- other French region is the migration balance region, and companies here spend only a share of the middle-class lifeworlds is above olds falls considerably. Otherwise, though, all so low – in other words, in recent years far fraction of the national average on research the lifeworlds of the work and family phase are more people have moved away from the area and development. However, the picture is likely to decline. than have moved to it. Since this loss exceeds not all gloomy. Several car manufacturers, the comparatively high number of births, the including Toyota, have opened factories in population here is declining. The region is one the city of Valenciennes, with its population of the few in France that is predicted to have a of 43,000. More importantly, the regional smaller population in 2025 than it does today. capital, Lille, which has already held the status Education Work/Family Retirement of European cultural capital, has succeeded Top- Top- The main reason for this strong out-migration in transforming its economy into a modern, Top- ranking ranking ranking trend is the lack of economic prospects. Until knowledge-based one. The Flemish-dominated young house- mid-lifers persons wives the Second World War, the north was an city has benefited from the fact that the TGV, Middle- Middle- engineering, coal mining, and textiles centre. Eurostar, and Thalys express trains have class class Even in the early 1950s the region was still stopped here since the mid-1990s. This good elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older Mid- producing half of France’s coal and a third of rail connection is one of the reasons why Lille School ranking ranking people ranking its textiles. But in the second half of the 20th now has four universities. The region is also pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers century it was hard hit by the wave of de- well on the way to establishing a service-based persons wives Working- Working- alone industrialisation. Many factories had to close economy, for its geographical location as a hub class class elderly elderly because production was no longer viable. As for trade routes running between Western and men women a result, the unemployment rate in this area Eastern Europe as well as being the gateway Low Low to Great Britain give it a big advantage as a income income men women trading and distribution centre. Socioeconomic status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 7 % – 11 % + 33 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 59 France EU average. The area suffered considerably The share of young people in the population trends are expected to produce a decline in all from the decline of heavy industry in Europe. in the western Paris basin hence corresponds lifeworlds of the education and the work and The Western Paris Basin Men, in particular, lost their jobs following roughly with the French average, although family phases by 2025. Only the lifeworld of the demise of shipbuilding in the 1980s and because the region has only a few major top-ranking mid-lifers is expected to remain the bankruptcy of the household equipment universities the number of students is low. At stable, since today there are many young The western Paris basin comprises Normandy, manufacturer Moulinex in Alencon in 200l. the same time Normandy’s petrochemicals and people with strong purchasing power. Hence which runs north-west of Paris along the There are, however, still jobs to be had at pharmaceutical companies, dockyards and most people who will have reached retirement English Channel, and the region Centre, the nuclear reprocessing plant in La Hague shipping companies, as well as the popular age by 2025 are likely to be financially well off. south-west of the capital. Purchasing power and at the nuclear power station in nearby tourist regions along the Orleans-Tours axis here is generally slightly below the national Flamanville. For a time during the 1980s, and the proximity of parts of the region to average, although the region’s economy overall while one plant was being built and the other Paris mean that everywhere the share of top- is somewhat better than that of the eastern expanded, the Basse-Normandie peninsula ranking lifeworlds with high purchasing power Paris basin. An important factor here is the was Europe’s largest building site. In contrast is slightly above the national average. The river shipping route along the Seine to the to the industrial regions of Normandy the region also has a solid proportion of middle- English Channel. The Seine crosses Normandy, region Centre lives mainly from agriculture and class lifeworlds. However, demographic connecting the Île-de-France region with the tourism. The Loire Valley located in this region sea. Many companies are located along the is referred to as “the garden of France”. Seine, which also runs through the region’s only two large cities, Le Havre and Rouen. Both Population development in the western Paris can boast large harbour facilities, making the basin is determined chiefly by migration and region the fourth most important European varies depending on proximity to greater Paris. trans-shipment centre for maritime freight, The Département Eure, for example, benefits Education Work/Family Retirement and both were traditionally centres of heavy from the short commuting distance to Paris. Top- Top- industry. Thus Le Havre, France’s second- The coastal département Seine-Maritime, on Top- ranking ranking ranking largest port after Marseille, has petrochemicals the other hand, suffers from out-migration; young house- mid-lifers persons wives and pharmaceuticals concerns, docks, and nevertheless, unlike many other rural regions, Middle- Middle- shipping companies. Le Havre is also home to it has been able to slow down this trend, since class class one of the French car manufacturer Renault’s the region’s many villages are regarded as elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older biggest factories. attractive places for older people to retire. This Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking is an important reason why the population of pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers These sectors require many highly-qualified over-60-year-olds will increase by a third by persons wives Working- Working- alone blue- and white-collar workers. And 2025. However, since the overall fertility rate class class particularly in the Haute-Normandie, in the is roughly equivalent to the rather high French elderly elderly men women eastern part of the region, they ensure that average of about two children per woman, Low Low average salaries and wages are above the the population of young people also looks income income national average. The economic situation is set to remain more or less stable. Prognoses men women

not quite as good in Basse-Normandie to the therefore predict a minus of only 4 percent in status Socioeconomic west, where GDP is only 84 percent of the the 0 to 19 age group by 2025 for the regions west of Paris, in contrast to minus 8 percent Phase of life for regions east of the capital. 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 4 % – 10 % + 33 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

60 Lifeworlds in Europe France The dominance of agriculture means that the Here the effects of economic and demographic income men and women are, by contrast, number of people with tertiary education developments are visible in the distribution comparatively high, and retired people, The Eastern Paris Basin among the population of the eastern Paris of lifeworlds. Although the share of school too, disproportionately often have only basin is relatively small, and here fewer people pupils is still around average thanks to a modest financial resources at their disposal. work in high-tech jobs than in other parts comparatively high fertility rate, the share This is likely to be the case for many future The eastern Paris basin stretches from of the country. Instead, low-skilled workers, of students is negligible. Compared with pensioners, too. Because the number of people Picardie, the region bordering on Belgium probably mainly from the agricultural sector, other French regions only a few inhabitants of working age is decreasing, all the lifeworlds and the English Channel, across the region make up a large share of the population. And of this region belong to the top-ranking of the work and family phase look set to Champagne-Ardenne directly to the east of because in times of crisis these are the first lifeworlds. And the up-and-coming lifeworld decline as well. Overall, the prospects for this Paris to Burgundy, southeast of the French people to lose their jobs, unemployment of mid-ranking young persons is the lowest corner of France are rather worrying: it has few capital. There are practically no large in the regions of the eastern Paris basin is of anywhere in France. The shares of low- highly-qualified young people and to date little cities in this thinly populated and mainly comparatively high, especially in Picardie, potential for attracting them and keeping them rural region. Although there are a number where many people have been out of work there. of medium-sized enterprises in industrial for more than a year. The share of long-term sectors like engineering and glass and textiles unemployed in the population is hence one manufacture, particularly in Champagne- of the highest in France. Overall, more people Ardenne much of the region is dominated by receive some form of state support in the intensive agriculture. In Picardie, for instance, eastern Paris basin than in other parts of 70 percent of the land is used for agriculture, France. whereas the national average is less than 50 percent. The farms here are on average Seeing no future for themselves here, many much larger than anywhere else in France, people move away – many of them drawn Education Work/Family Retirement where smallholdings are much more common. to nearby Paris. Only Burgundy, with its Top- Top- Champagne, for example, not only has particularly attractive landscape, has more in- Top- ranking ranking ranking numerous small and medium-sized vineyards than out-migration. For a long time the number young house- mid-lifers producing the famous sparkling wine of of children per woman was above the national persons wives Middle- Middle- the same name, but is also home to several average, but has recently decreased so that class class agricultural concerns producing grain and the number of births cannot compensate for elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older sugar beet on a large scale. Burgundy is a big the effects of out-migration. As a result, the Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking wine-growing area but specialises in rearing population in the eastern Paris basin is set pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers livestock, too. Since agriculture is usually to decline by 2025, particularly in the region persons wives Working- Working- alone associated with low productivity, regional Champagne-Ardenne. And it will age much class class GDP and disposable income are both below more than the region Île-de-France around elderly elderly men women the French average. Picardie in the north, in Paris. Thus the share of 20- to 59-year-olds Low Low particular, is economically rather weak. is expected to decrease by 13 percent by income income 2025, while the share of over-60-year-olds men women will increase by 32 percent. The old age Socioeconomic status Socioeconomic dependency ratio will then be well above the figure for France as a whole. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 8 % – 13 % + 32 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 61 France Greater Paris offers an above average number In Paris people concentrate on their work and three times that of other regions. Because of jobs for highly-qualified people and their their careers, so for people in the top-ranking of its unrivalled attractions as an economic The Paris Region share of the working population is higher lifeworlds Paris is the most attractive region centre, the city can expect to go on attracting than anywhere else in France. Yet blue-collar in France. The share of young and middle- well-qualified young people who are also workers, and low-skilled white-collar workers aged people with particularly high purchasing likely to stay, given the large number of major In centralised France, the region Île-de-France – in many cases immigrants from the former power is thus the highest in the country. In companies and political institutions to provide is the undisputed political, cultural, and colonies – are more likely to be unemployed terms of students, Paris, the university capital, them with jobs. All lifeworlds of the work and economic centre. For this reason the region, than the French average. This leads to social also far outstrips anywhere else in France. family phase are thus likely to remain stable, which in most respects is synonymous with tensions. Their share of the population over the age while the younger ones may even grow slightly. greater Paris, comes top of the league tables of 14 is at least double and in some cases Although the lifeworlds of retired people are for all kinds of indicators. It is, for example, Nevertheless, overall the economy is booming currently strongly underrepresented, the far more densely populated than any other in greater Paris. The share of women and number of people aged 60 and older will also region of France. Here almost 12 million older people in the workforce is higher than increase considerably, even in the young city people inhabit an area equivalent to just anywhere else in the country, and youth of Paris. under 2 percent of the total area of France. unemployment is the second lowest in France. Population density is hence more than nine In addition, one French student in four studies times the French average. And nowhere else at a Paris university. The economy of Île-de- in the country is there such a concentration of France draws young people from all over the major companies as here. They produce luxury country. Both of these factors together mean goods like fashion and jewellery as well as that the population share of under-35-year- chemical products, electrical appliances, cars, olds is the highest in the country. Despite and machines. Tourism also has an important these attractive conditions, however, Paris Education Work/Family Retirement economic role to play, Paris being the world’s still has one of the highest negative migration Top- Top- most visited city. balances in all of France. In other words, far Top- ranking ranking ranking more people are moving away from Paris than young house- mid-lifers persons wives Since most of France’s economic power is are moving into the city. One of the reasons Middle- Middle- concentrated in Paris, this is also the region for this is that many pensioners prefer to leave class class with the country’s highest average incomes. the noisy, expensive city and spend their elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older GDP in Île-de-France is roughly twice that of twilight years in the country or in the south Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking other French regions, in fact it is the highest of France. As a consequence, the share of pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers of all European regions. Nevertheless, despite over-75-year-olds in the population as well as persons wives Working- Working- alone these positive figures, unemployment is just the old age dependency ratio is the lowest of class class as high in Paris as it is in other parts of France. all French regions. It is also for these reasons elderly elderly men women that the total population of the region grew Low Low only slightly more in Paris between 2000 and income income 2010 than the French average, and the number men women

of children per woman is also slightly above status Socioeconomic the national average. Thus, all in all, the Paris region is by no means the area with the highest Phase of life population growth – despite its attractions as 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older an economic centre. + 12 % + 2 % + 32 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

62 Lifeworlds in Europe France In economic terms, too, western France Poitou-Charente – the smallest of the three moved there from the interior to spend their is relatively weak, partly on account of its west coast regions in terms of population and retirement in the mild climate of the Atlantic The West remoteness from the centre of the country. also economically the weakest – is beset with coast. The large number of elderly people GDP is below the French average and incomes problems. Although there are a number of with adequate financial resources, whose are among the lowest in the country. Here small and medium-sized industrial companies numbers are set to increase considerably in France’s Atlantic coast consists of three there are neither large cities nor many major here, cognac remains the most important all regions of France as the population ages, regions. From north to south these are companies. Only in Pays de la Loire is there a export. Overall, this rural area is characterised may also represent an economic opportunity if Brittany, Pays de la Loire, and Poitou- manufacturing industry of any size. The west by a strongly aging population. this region manages to specialise in branches Charente. Currently home to 8.5 million of is a culinary centre that lives from agriculture, focused on providing housing and services for the total French population of 65 million, the fishing, oyster cultures, and tourism, so value The distribution of consumers between them. In addition, Brittany, at least, with its region’s demographic development is likely added is correspondingly low. lifeworlds with greater or smaller purchasing strong regional identity, has in recent years to be below average in the future. Above all, power along the west coast corresponds been able to boast a slow but steady economic it will age more than the national average Brittany was for a long time regarded as roughly with the French average. There is an upturn. Overall, however, the lifeworlds in the in the next few decades. Even in 2009 the the poorhouse of France. As one of France’s above average share of middle-class elderly young and middle-aged groups are likely to old age dependency ratio was already three most important tourist regions it is strongly men, many of them pensioners who have remain stable, while those in the retirement percentage points over that for France as a dependent on seasonal business and offers phase will grow. whole. Although more children are born per few jobs for highly-qualified people. Yet woman here than in other French regions and thanks to tourism, Brittany, like the rest of the more people are migrating into the region west coast, has a lower proportion of long- than out of it, many of the in-migrants are term unemployed than the French average. older people moving from the interior or the Unemployment overall was also well below capital to the beautiful Atlantic coast, and it average in 2010. Besides tourism the Breton Education Work/Family Retirement is these people who push up the average age. food industry offers jobs, but like the other Top- Top- On the other hand, those who leave tend to sectors here it is at a disadvantage because of Top- ranking ranking ranking be young people, especially women. Thus the its remote geographical location far from the young house- mid-lifers persons wives slightly above average fertility rate is unable to main domestic markets and the rest of Europe. Middle- Middle- compensate much for the decrease in the share class class of the women in the population. The food industry is also an important sector elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older in Pays de la Loire at the mouth of the Loire Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking on the Atlantic. The regional capital, Nantes, pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers is home to an Airbus factory which employs persons wives Working- Working- alone some 10,000 people. Located roughly 50 km class class from the coast, the city was once dependent elderly elderly men women upon its harbour, which used to be one of Low Low France’s most important. Nowadays it is of income income women only minor significance for trade, because it men

is not accessible for large modern container status Socioeconomic ships. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 5 % – 1 % + 34 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 63 France In second place after Alsace comes Franche- women who go out to work and a negative France. However, the relatively low figures Comté, which lies in the Jura mountains on migration balance brought about by out- for the lifeworld of top-ranking young people The East the Swiss border. It is thinly populated and migration and low birth rates have prevented indicate that after graduating these people do consists mainly of villages surrounded by the unemployment figures rising even higher. A not find sufficient jobs in their field. All in all, the most thickly wooded areas of France, number of universities and affiliated institutes the region has established a solid economy, Taken together, the east of France can suggesting poor economic data. However, as well as the engineering college of the as shown by the comparatively high shares boast comparatively good economic Franche-Comté is also the location of several Institut National Polytechnique de Lorraine of the lifeworlds of mid- and top-ranking and demographic data, yet considerable car manufacturers as well as Alstom, the give some grounds for optimism. mid-lifers. Thanks to its central position in differences emerge when we look at the company which makes TGV high-speed trains. Europe, the east of France has the potential three eastern regions – Alsace, Lorraine, and Since there are very few companies from other The comparatively high density of excellent to develop positively both economically Franche-Comté – separately. At the top comes sectors, such as services, industry in Franche- universities in eastern France means that the and demographically in the future too. Alsace, located along the German border. Comté has a higher status than anywhere else lifeworld of students makes up the second- Nevertheless, the number of people under While in terms of area it is actually the smallest in France. At any rate, these company offshoots highest share of the population in all of the age of 60 here is falling and the number region of France, in economic terms it comes as well as the many people who commute of older people is increasing. Therefore the in second place of all French regions after to neighbouring Switzerland means that lifeworlds of the retirement phase will grow Paris. Alsace has one of the highest levels of relatively few people are unemployed. Because while the others decline. per capita purchasing power in France, and of the large percentage of manufacturing, per capita GDP is greater only in the wealthy however, not only the unemployment rate but Rhône-Alpes region. Behind these positive also disposable income lies below the French indicators is a dynamic economy that spans average. The number of children per woman is a number of different sectors, from the car above the national average – probably because industry in Mulhouse to bio-technology in the of the major importance of traditional family Education Work/Family Retirement life sciences network BioValley – which also structures in this largely rural region. Top- Top- extends into south-west Germany and northern Top- ranking ranking ranking Switzerland – as well as wine-growing and In Lorraine, which borders on Belgium, young house- mid-lifers persons wives tourism. The regional capital, Strasbourg, Luxembourg, and Germany, the situation is Middle- Middle- is also the seat of many EU institutions, more difficult. This used to be one of France’s class class including the Council of Europe, the European most important industrial centres in the first elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older parliament, and the European Court. Taken half of the twentieth century. Yet structural Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking together, all this means that the region has change has hit this former mining and steel pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers one of the lowest unemployment rates in region hard, as it has the neighbouring German persons wives Working- Working- alone the country. Although women in Alsace have Saarland, causing high unemployment, class class comparatively few children, the population is and to date the region has succeeded in elderly elderly men women growing through in-migration. attracting only a few new sectors. For this Low Low reason Lorraine is today one of France’s income income women economically weakest regions. GDP per capita men

is 15 percent below the EU average, while status Socioeconomic the unemployment rate is above the national average. Only the large numbers of commuters Phase of life to Luxembourg as well as the low share of 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 5 % – 9 % + 34 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

64 Lifeworlds in Europe France decline the central region has been running Airbus or its parent company EADS. At this although this segment of the population a successful campaign to attract people from high-tech location an above average share of is expected to grow by 2025. The young The South-West the country’s expensive big cities. It has thus GDP is invested in research and development, lifeworlds in the work and family phases benefited from the renaissance of rural life in providing jobs for many highly-qualified will probably also grow slightly, whereas France. people. These favourable conditions make the lifeworlds of the retirement phase will Two major cities, Bordeaux and Toulouse, are Toulouse one of the country’s fastest growing experience much stronger growth. Although located in south-west France near the border In the region Aquitaine on the coast, by conurbations. Like south-west France as a all in all fewer consumers in this area belong with Spain. A total of 750,000 people live in contrast, there are a number of medium- whole the city is growing mainly because of to the top-ranking lifeworlds than the national the areas in and around these two cities. As sized cities that have been growing for some in-migration, for the number of children born average, a class of young people with high the capitals of the regions Aquitaine and Midi- time, attracting people with their sunny, mild per woman is well under the French average. purchasing power has established itself, so Pyrénées they are both cultural and economic climate. Many of the new arrivals find work in The population is thus expected to increase by that in the future the lifeworld of people of powerhouses in this corner of the country. the wine-growing areas around the regional 13 percent by 2025. top-ranking mid-lifers is expected to increase While the surrounding areas are mainly rural capital, Bordeaux, or in tourism, which has slightly. In order to keep the aging of the and relatively thinly populated, these magnets been booming all along the Atlantic coast right The low fertility rate throughout south-west population in check, however, the areas further for in-migration ensure population growth down to the Spanish border. Bordeaux, with France means that this region has the smallest away from the prosperous centres will need and satisfactory economic development. The a population of 240,000, had been declining share of school pupils in the whole country, to make an effort to attract young, qualified two regional capitals are also responsible for demographically for a long time, but it has now migrants. the fact that the unemployment rate in this succeeded in effecting a turnaround so that the part of France is below the national average, inhabitants of this traditional university city whereas further inland the region Limousin, are on average younger and better educated with its capital, Limoges, has less favourable than in the rest of France. The local economy indicators. Here per capita disposable income rests on the one hand on the wine sector, Education Work/Family Retirement is several percentage points below the national which produces one quarter of France’s wine Top- Top- figure, and per capita GDP is more than ten with an annual turnover in the tens of billions, Top- ranking ranking ranking percentage points below the EU average. and on the other on trade and services. Most young house- mid-lifers persons wives goods being transported to Spain and Portugal Middle- Middle- The smallest region of France, Limousin, move through Bordeaux. In addition, the class class forms the geographical centre of the country. aviation and space industry also accounts elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older Because it is so thinly populated it tends to be for 20,000 jobs, for example at the aviation Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking referred to as the “empty centre”. Only a few concern Aérospatiale. pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers companies, among them several established persons wives Working- Working- alone manufacturers of enamel and porcelain, This is also an important sector in nearby class class offer jobs and therefore prospects for young Toulouse. Of the city’s 440,000 inhabitants, elderly elderly men women people. According to prognoses the old age 34,000 are involved in building aeroplanes, Low Low dependency ratio here will lie well above helicopters, rockets, or satellites, chiefly at income income women the French average in the coming years. men

Even in 2009, only just over a third of the status Socioeconomic population was younger than 35 – whereas the national average was more than 43 percent. Phase of life Nevertheless, after many years of population 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older +8 % + 2 % + 31 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 65 France in the 19th century and with its suburb of of Laguiole. By far the region’s biggest Overall the situation in the south-east of Villeurbanne is still one of France’s leading employer is the tyre manufacturer Michelin in France is rather positive, thanks above all to The South-East manufacturing centres, the most important the regional capital, Clermont-Ferrand, where the positive indicators in the Rhône-Alpes sectors being metal smelting and processing more than 30,000 people work. It is the only region. Hence the share of school pupils and alongside chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and company listed on the French share index students is comparatively high, and the region The economic and demographic balance is plastics and rubber production. Lyon is also CAC 40 that does not have its headquarters also has relatively large shares of people in the very unevenly spread in the south-east of the location of the pan-European TV channel in Paris. Even today the population of the top-ranking lifeworlds. The number of people France, which comprises the regions Rhône- Euronews and the headquarters of the major Auvergne is the oldest in France and it is aging in the work and family phase in this region is Alpes and Auvergne. Whereas the Auvergne, bank named after the city, Crédit Lyonnais. more than in most other French regions. likely to remain stable and thanks to the overall located mainly in the inaccessible Massive favourable economic development, so is the Centrale, is one of the country’s weakest areas The Rhône-Alpes region can boast the largest share of lifeworlds who are financially well off. economically, the region of Rhône-Alpes number of registered patents per capita after The major disparities could, however, lead to directly adjacent to the Swiss and Italian Île-de-France. The region’s major potential a further division of the south-east into one borders is not only the largest in terms of area, for research and development is boosted by a part with excellent economic and demographic but in terms of number of inhabitants and whole string of elite universities, the so-called prospects and another with only mediocre or economic power it comes in second place after Grandes Écoles. Then there are a number of poor development. the dominant Île-de-France region including universities and colleges. The Rhône-Alpes greater Paris. Thus economic performance region thus has the largest number of students in Rhône-Alpes is more than ten percentage after Paris. The good conditions it provides for points above the EU average. Purchasing work and study means that the population of power is above the national average, Rhône-Alpes is relatively young and grew by unemployment below it. almost 10 percent between 2000 and 2010. Education Work/Family Retirement This is accounted for by a high fertility rate and Top- Top- The eastern and southern parts of the Rhône- steady in-migration. By 2025 the population is Top- ranking ranking ranking Alpes region are thinly populated. More set to grow by around another 10 percent. young house- mid-lifers persons wives than 40 percent of the population live in the Middle- Middle- west and the north in the areas around the The Auvergne region further west forms a class class major cities of Grenoble, Saint-Étienne, and stark contrast to this. Here the number of elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older the administrative capital, Lyon. Around 1.5 inhabitants is expected to grow by only about Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking million people live in the areas around this city, 1 percent over the same period, which means pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers located at the confluence of the Rhône and that in a region where the population density persons wives Working- Working- alone the Saône, between the Jura, the Alps, and the per square kilometre is only half the French class class Massive Centrale. This makes Lyon France’s average it will at least remain stable. The local elderly elderly men women third-largest city after Paris and Marseille. economy does not attract much in-migration, Low Low And this is where the pulse of the boom region and GDP per capita is almost 10 percent below income income women Rhône-Alpes in south-eastern France beats. the EU average and hence 20 percent lower men

Lyon was already an important industrial city than the neighbouring Rhône-Alpes region. status Socioeconomic Economic development is rather sluggish, the most important exports being cheese, mineral Phase of life water, and penknives made in the small 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 5 % 0 % + 34 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

66 Lifeworlds in Europe France incomes are low, many young people leave By contrast, the eastern region of Provence- Over the whole French Mediterranean coast Corsica, which also means that relatively few Alpes-Côte d’Azur on the border with Italy low fertility rates and high migration rates for The Mediterranean children are born there. At the same time, is much more prosperous than the western older people mean that the lifeworlds of the many people are moving to Corsica, and by Mediterranean coast. This is home not only to education and the work and family phases are 2025 the population is expected to grow by the celebrity resort of St Tropez but also the below averagely represented. The values are The French Mediterranean coast is a fifth. prosperous city of Nice, where many high-tech high for middle-class elderly men and women developing quite well both economically and companies have established themselves. The and also for older people living alone, showing demographically. It has a number of growing The strong population growth on the nearby port city of Marseille forms a stark the area’s importance as a place to retire. In urban centres, above all France’s second- mainland in the western coastal region of contrast to this. This city considers itself 2025 – as everywhere in France – there will be largest city, Marseille, but also many smaller Languedoc-Roussillon is also accounted for Europe’s gateway to Africa and is home to far more people over the age of 60, although towns to which many people have retired – mainly by in-migration, since the fertility many illegal immigrants from North Africa, the number of youth and the young working many of them very wealthy. But they are not rate here is lower than the French average. It and because many industrial companies have population is expected to increase as well. the only ones moving into the area. Thanks to is, however, mainly the coastal regions that closed in recent decades social tensions run With the dynamic development around cities a positive migration balance, the population are benefiting from this in-migration, while high, as does the crime rate. At the same like Montpellier, the Mediterranean region of the entire Mediterranean area in the age the hinterland is declining. In Languedoc- time, the city is also home to many major would appear to have rather good prospects. group up to 19 is likely to grow almost as Roussillon overall there is very little industry companies, such as vehicle manufacturers, and strongly as in Paris by 2025, while the 20 to or services: after Corsica the region has the it is making an effort to deal with its problems 59 age group is growing more quickly than in second-lowest share of jobs in industry in and to attract more tourists. any other region of the country. If we look at all of France. One of the few exceptions is the fundamental data of the Mediterranean the administrative centre Montpellier, where coast more closely we see that the region is several industrial companies are located. The divided into two: on the one hand the western western Mediterranean coast lives mainly Education Work/Family Retirement region of Languedoc-Roussillon with relatively from tourism. Other important sectors are Top- Top- weak economic indicators; on the other, the wine-growing and the fishing industry in Top- ranking ranking ranking prosperous region of Provence-Alpes-Côte Sète, one of the most important French young house- mid-lifers persons wives d’Azur, where alongside Marseille the major Mediterranean harbours. Many jobs on the Middle- Middle- cities of Nice and Toulon are located. western Mediterranean coast are in badly class class paid, fluctuating sectors like construction, elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older The island of Corsica located off the coast of and then there are seasonal jobs in tourism. Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking Italy, which also belongs to the Mediterranean The result is very high unemployment and a pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers region, shows a rather mixed picture. Here large number of recipients of state benefits persons wives Working- Working- alone per capita GDP is the lowest in France with as well as unusually low average wages and class class the exception of the overseas départements. salaries. elderly elderly men women The thinly populated island has no industry Low Low to speak of and lives from tourism and wine- income income women growing. Because there are few jobs, and men Socioeconomic status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 11 % + 4 % + 32 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 67 Once a poor and largely backward country, Population in 2011 46,152,926 Spain was for a long time cited as a shining SPAIN Projected population in 2021 47,341,590 example of how new EU members could Number of children per woman in 2011 1.38 successfully attain the economic level of the Median age in 2011 40.3 core EU countries. But today it has become GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 13,441 clear that Spain’s rapid rise was built on sand. Even the most optimistic scenarios do not Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 15.0 expect Spain to regain the level of economic Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 34.3 performance it achieved in the pre-crisis year Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 35.1 2007 until 2025, according to the Economic and Social Council, which advises the Spanish government. Yet even for this to happen, the Spanish economy would have to create 300,000 new jobs annually starting in 2014. Where the impetus for such an upswing is to come from is currently not at all clear. The recession is at any rate expected to continue through 2013.

The most recent crisis brought an end to a phase of economic growth in Spain, driven in the early years of the new millennium above all by the boom in real estate. During this period more new housing was built in Spain than in Germany, France, Italy, and Great Britain put together. In 2007, one Spaniard in eight was still employed in the construction sector. Numerous households – encouraged by the low interest rates for mortgages – took on long- term debt in order to buy flats, thus helping to finance the boom. This, compounded by rising private consumption, contributed to many years of strong economic growth in succession.

68 Lifeworlds in Europe During this period it was not only the economy security and pensions systems will thus face Poor job prospects for a quarter of young 30 2001 that grew but the population as well, especially major challenges for which the economically Spaniards 2011 through immigration. Between 2000 and weakened country must prepare itself. It 2010, Spain gained seven million new does, after all, still have a number of decades Young people who do not obtain at least an 25 intermediate secondary school certificate often have inhabitants – most of them foreign immigrants. in which to use the potential of its young very limited prospects on the job market. The jobs open But even without the immigrants the country’s population and to make its economy more to them tend to be badly paid and are rarely crisis- population is still comparatively young. Until productive and more innovative. resistant. Until recently Spaniards who left school with 20 the 1980s Spanish women were on average only a basic education were able to find employment having well over two children. But after the The growth of the past decade in fact in the booming construction sector or simple service- sector jobs even without a vocational qualification. 15 economy began to boom following Spain’s concealed the structural weaknesses of the These were, however, the first jobs to disappear when accession to the EU in 1986, the fertility Spanish economy, for only a small portion the crisis came. By contrast, Europe has a large need rate began to fall and by the 1990s was the of the country’s surplus could be attributed for a well-qualified workforce. Over the past decade, 10 lowest in the whole of Europe. Even today to productivity gains. In reality it was based all the EU countries studied here have succeeded to a Spanish women are having fewer children largely on an increase in the size of the greater or lesser extent in raising the educational level of young people. Spain lags behind in this respect. than the European average. Until recently, workforce. These extra people worked in 5 the huge wave of immigration of the 2000s the construction sector, in tourism, or in the was more than compensating for the low factories of foreign companies attracted by number of births. But now this phase of major Spain’s low labour costs. The jobs in these Percentage of 18- to 24-year-olds who have completed 0 immigration seems to be over, at least for the sectors were, however, often badly paid at most lower secondary education and are no longer Italy time being. In 2011 the migration balance and required few qualifications. And they Spain

attending school or training, 2001 and 2011 France Poland Austria was even negative for the first time since were, as experience has shown, by no means (Source: Eurostat) Germany

1990 – that means more people left Spain crisis-resistant. Although Spain created more Britain Great than arrived. Current prognoses for 2025 are jobs than any other EU country over the past Netherlands The therefore predicting only a slight rise in the decade, when the crisis came these jobs were population of somewhat more than a million also the first to be lost. Overall, the Spanish Hence Spain is currently in danger of being a general austerity programme. Yet in order people. economy invested too little in the sectors sucked into a downwards spiral, with to use its population productively, which is of the future, the only exceptions being catastrophic prospects for the up-and- relatively young by European standards, what Spain will not experience a major demographic prosperous regions like the Basque country coming generation – and it is for this reason Spain really needs is a major programme crisis until the decades following 2025, for and Catalonia. The economy is dominated that predominantly well-qualified people, of innovation. Only this would enable it to that is when the large cohorts born before the by small and very small businesses; only one who might contribute to creating a more close the gap with the core EU and the global 1980s and the young people who immigrated company in ten has more than five employees. innovative economy, are emigrating. Those economy.* to Spain in the 1990s and 2000s will reach And these companies in many cases do not who stay behind tend to have a low level of pension age. They will then be followed by have the capital to invest in research and education, which is true of a comparatively much smaller generations. Between 2010 development. large number of Spaniards. Around a quarter and 2025 the old age dependency ratio is of 18- to 24-year-olds leave school without expected to rise only moderately, but by 2050 any secondary school qualification. At the it will probably more than double, so that for same time, the government is severely every 100 people of working age between the curbing expenditure on education as part of ages of 15 and 64 there will then be around * The Canary Islands and the Spanish exclaves Ceuta 60 people over the age of 64. The social und Melilla on the coast of Morocco are excluded from the following portraits of Spain’s regions, since there are no data available for the distribution of biographical lifeworlds in these regions.

Lifeworlds in Europe 69 Spain at overcoming the crisis, the government also This is a consequence of a special demographic younger age groups are set to visibly decline plans to drastically cut state subsidies for situation in the north-western Spanish in numbers. Given the difficult economic The North-West mining, thereby threatening several thousand provinces. In Galicia and Asturias the fertility situation in Spain, the low-income lifeworlds more jobs. The province is having difficulty rate has been very low for a long time and at are scarcely likely to grow smaller. And many attracting new industrial sectors to Asturias the beginning of the new millennium was even future pensioners in north-west Spain will Around four and a half million people live in on any significant scale. Instead, dairy farming below one child per woman. Nowhere else probably live rather modestly. the north-west of Spain, most of them in the and fishing continue to play a relatively large in Europe has it been as low as this in recent coastal regions. Two-thirds of the inhabitants role in this area with its damp climate. Despite years. For this reason, contrary to the Spanish of this part of the country live in Galicia the rather backward economic structure, the trend, the population in this region has not on the Atlantic in the extreme north-west, unemployment rate in the north-west is still grown since 2010 but has remained more or * For Spain this study used the regional population which is separated from the rest of Spain five percentage points below the Spanish less stable. And already today it is considerably prognoses of the National Institute of Statistics rather by high mountain ranges. This is where the average. older than the Spanish average. The number of than those of the European statistics office Eurostat. This city of Santiago de Compostela lies. With a older people is expected to rise further from its latest prognosis already takes account of the sharp fall in population of around 100,000 it is the final In neighbouring Galicia there are few large already high level until 2021.* Among people immigration to Spain since the beginning of the economic crisis and therefore expects much smaller population destination of the St James’s Way pilgrimage companies and the share of small and very of working age there will be shifts in the age growth in the coming years. The national prognosis only route, which is of major cultural and touristic small businesses is even higher than the structure too: the lifeworlds of mid-lifers are covers the period up to 2021, but developments up to importance. Alongside Santiago the north- Spanish average. Two of the few exceptions still growing slightly or remain stable while the 2025 are unlikely to differ much. western Costa Verde is also a popular tourist to this are a Citroën factory in Vigo, a city destination. Visitors from the dry Spanish of 300,000 inhabitants, and the textiles interior like to come here in the summer to company Inditex near La Coruña. The latter is enjoy the mild ocean climate of the “green responsible for the fact that since the 1990s coast”. textiles has overtaken fishing as the most Education Work/Family Retirement important employer in Galicia. But even before Top- Top- The northern part of the region, Asturias, the crisis the region’s economy was relatively Top- ranking ranking ranking likewise has a stunning landscape, yet it is weak. GDP per capita is hence below the young house- mid-lifers persons wives actually Spain’s mining and heavy industry Spanish average. Middle- Middle- centre. However, since the 1970s it has class class become increasingly difficult for the coal and The economic structure of the north-west elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older influences the distribution of the lifeworlds. Mid- iron ore mined here to compete with cheap School ranking ranking people ranking imports and so these industries have declined In the work and family phase the share of pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers in significance. Those who formerly worked low-income women and men is around five persons wives Working- Working- alone in them have had great difficulty finding new percentage points higher than in Spain as a class class whole, while the top-ranking lifeworlds are elderly elderly jobs. As part of the austerity package aimed men women underrepresented. Nevertheless, there is Low Low a relatively strong young middle class. The income income women age structure of the population is striking: men

almost a third of the population is already in status Socioeconomic the retirement phase, more than in any other Spanish region. The national average is around Phase of life 27 percent. 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 1 % – 11 % + 11 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2021

70 Lifeworlds in Europe Spain a predominantly industrial area, its economy adult population the number of people without Therefore low-income women and men and is increasingly based on modern industrial a secondary school or vocational qualification working-class elderly women and men are The North sectors with high productivity. In terms of new is small. In terms of qualifications the Basque strongly under-represented. Of older people, patents registered, the Basque country and country heads the league table. Here more whose numbers will continue to increase, a Navarra come top in all of Spain. This is where than half of the workforce are graduates of large number will continue to enjoy a high At the centre of the Spanish north is the Basque the majority of industrial jobs in the Spanish universities or colleges. standard of living in 2021. All lifeworlds of country, known above all internationally for north are. However, two of the country’s most the retirement phase look set to grow. If the the terrorist attacks staged by the separatist important banks also have their headquarters If we look at the lifeworlds we see that the region succeeds in advancing further along movement ETA. It is already relatively on the Atlantic coast on the border with region’s prosperity is distributed among a the road to modern high-tech industry and an independent, and like the neighbouring France: Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria relatively broad group of consumers. Almost innovative, knowledge-based economy, it will province of Navarra to the east, also populated (BBVA) in Biscay, and Banco Santander in 45 percent of the population in the various life continue to secure prosperity in the future and by Basques, it collects its own taxes and then the city of that name, which belongs to the phases over the age of 14 belong to the middle- be able to offer attractive jobs to people with pays a proportion of these to the Spanish state. neighbouring region of Cantabria. class lifeworlds – around ten percentage medium and high levels of qualifications. The For large swathes of the population, however, points more than in all other Spanish regions. lifeworlds of mid-lifers with higher purchasing this partial autonomy does not go far enough, The latter, located west of the Basque country power are thus likely to remain stable in the and a number of official parties are fighting on the Atlantic coast, was likewise for a long future. The younger lifeworlds, however, will for the complete independence of the Basque time dominated by heavy industry. Even decline as a result of demographic trends. territories in Spain and France from the central today ores and coal continue to be mined governments. here. By contrast, the coastal region, with its cool climate, and in particular the provincial The long years of ETA terrorism that have capital, Santander, noted for its white beaches, accompanied this striving for autonomy do not are popular destinations for Spanish tourists Education Work/Family Retirement seem to have had a negative effect on economic from the interior. Other smaller industrial Top- Top- development in the region. The Basque country centres are also to be found outside the Top- ranking ranking ranking and Navarra, home to around two thirds of the Basque country and Navarra in cities like young house- mid-lifers over four million people who live in the Spanish persons wives Burgos, Palencia, or Torrelavega. Overall, the Middle- Middle- north, form the economic centre of this part of share of people working in industry (excluding class class the country and are among the most prosperous construction) in the north is a third higher elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older provinces in Spain with the best prospects for than the national average. In the more thinly Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking the future. Following the decline of traditional populated areas in the interior agriculture and pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers industrial sectors like steel production and the food industry play a relatively large role, persons wives Working- Working- alone shipbuilding in the 1970s and 1980s, the for example in the province of La Rioja with the class class Basque country has succeeded in getting the wine-growing region of the same name. elderly elderly men women economy back on its feet. Although this is still Low Low The educational level of the population income income shows that the region has a good chance of men women

continuing to be one of Spain’s economic status Socioeconomic powerhouses in the future as well. Fewer young people leave school here without a Phase of life qualification than the Spanish average, albeit 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older more than in the EU as a whole. Among the + 2 % – 14 % + 16 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2021

Lifeworlds in Europe 71 Spain than Spain overall. This is an indication that All in all the north-east is one of Spain’s The population in Spain’s north-east has investment is translated into innovation more economically strongest regions. GDP and per grown steadily in recent years through a The North-East efficiently here than elsewhere. The port city capita incomes are well above the national steady stream of in-migration, most of it to the of Barcelona has made Catalonia an important average – and this applies to all parts of the Balearic islands and the coastal regions. Given Mediterranean trading centre, and it is also region, so it is not just the trading centre that in-migration has fallen since the crisis The economic centre of the Spanish north-east the most important Mediterranean harbour for Barcelona that makes this part of the country and out-migration has risen, the population of is located in the metropolitan region around cruise ships. prosperous. Here the share of top-ranking 20- to 60-year-olds is forecast to decline over Barcelona in Catalonia. This area has a long lifeworlds is higher than in other Spanish the next ten years, albeit almost exclusively in tradition as an industrial centre, and although The western areas of this part of Spain as regions and that of low-income women and the younger age groups, which owing to many the services sector is growing, more than half well as the mountainous Pyrenees territory men correspondingly smaller. However, high years of low birth rates are relatively small the workforce is still engaged in production on the country’s northern border are thinly youth unemployment and the large proportion already. The 40 to 60 age group will, however, or in production-related services. In 2010 populated compared with the coast. More of young people who fail to finish school raises remain stable, while the number of people of Catalonia contributed almost a quarter of than half the population in the western half of fears that – like in other Spanish regions – retirement age and hence all lifeworlds of the Spain’s total industrial turnover and around the north-east region lives in the only major around a fifth of the younger generation will retirement phase will grow. a fifth of its GDP. Like everywhere else in city in this area, Saragossa, which has around remain without employment prospects in the Spain, there are many small and medium- 620,000 inhabitants. Away from this centre long term. For the students who also make up sized companies here as well as a number on the fertile plateaus of the Pyrenees in the a relatively large share of the population, on of international companies that have their north-eastern Spanish interior agriculture the other hand, the region will continue to offer Spanish headquarters in Catalonia. The still has a major role to play, accounting for attractive jobs. region’s strong economic growth is due among around 10 percent of regional gross value other things to the steady in-migration of added – a larger share than the Spanish or young people. Nevertheless, productivity has European average. Otherwise the economy Education Work/Family Retirement not risen as much as GDP. here, too, is dominated by manufacturing. Top- Top- Many Spanish and international companies Top- ranking ranking ranking Yet Catalonia’s innovative economy is in a have their production facilities in or around young house- mid-lifers relatively good position to overcome the persons wives Saragossa, the most important of them being Middle- Middle- crisis. The share of high-tech production is the General Motors factory opened in 1982, class class above the Spanish average; the same goes which produces various Opel models. elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older for the number of registered patents per Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking resident, even though this region does not The Balearic islands, such as Mallorca and pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers invest more in research and development Ibiza, which also belong to this region, are persons wives Working- Working- alone economically mainly dependent on tourism. class class Three quarters of the workforce here is elderly elderly men women employed in the services sector, many of Low Low them in hotels and restaurants. As well as income income holidaymakers, migrants also come to the men women

islands and remain permanently – pensioners status Socioeconomic looking for a place to retire in a pleasant climate, for instance, or young people seeking Phase of life work in hotels or catering. 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older 0 % – 14 % + 15 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2021

72 Lifeworlds in Europe Spanien Madrid is the financial and administrative The regional contrasts – the economic In view of the high unemployment and youth centre of the country and the most prosperous powerhouse Madrid, on the one hand, and unemployment, the number of low-income The Central Plateau Spanish province. Its gross per capita the large, thinly populated surrounding areas, women and men with low purchasing power regional product was 36 percent above on the other – cancel one another out so is hardly likely to diminish, even though the the EU average in 2009 and it is one of the that in the distribution of lifeworlds Spain’s 20- to 59 age group is declining. Older people, Of the 10.3 million inhabitants of the central OECD regions with the largest proportion of centre is average in almost all respects. too, who are expected to grow in number by a plateau, around six million – or almost two employees in knowledge-intensive services. Through all phases of life around a third of fifth in the coming ten years, will probably in thirds – live in greater Madrid, and 3.25 million The city’s eight state and numerous private consumers belong to the group with middle many cases have only a small income. What is of them in the city itself. With the exception of universities generate well-qualified young socioeconomic status. The share of low- also probable, however, is that the economy in the capital the large expanses of the Spanish graduates. In recent decades the metropolitan income women and men and working-class greater Madrid will develop more favourably interior are extremely thinly populated. region has grown not only economically but elderly women and men is lower than in the than elsewhere in Spain – and that the region Madrid has been the political and cultural demographically as well – by around a million south of Spain but higher than in the north. will therefore continue to have a solid middle centre of Spain for centuries, but only in the people between 2000 and 2011 alone. This class, albeit one whose average age will rise twentieth century did it become an important was caused by heavy in-migration from other markedly, since the age groups under the age industrial city. Today the city’s economy is Spanish regions and from abroad. of 40 are declining. clearly dominated by the services sector, which accounts for 85 percent of jobs and of In the centre of Spain outside Madrid gross value added. A third of Spanish turnover agriculture still accounts for a high proportion in the services sector is generated in the of GDP. Although the rural regions generally Madrid region. Overall, the Spanish economy had a slightly positive migration balance is increasingly shifting towards the capital in in 2009, accounted for mainly by foreign the geographical centre of the country, for it immigrants, if we look at internal migration Education Work/Family Retirement offers good transport links to all regions of in Spain we see that this part of the country Top- Top- the Iberian Peninsula. This applies both to is actually losing inhabitants to other regions. Top- ranking ranking ranking modern industrial sectors and to the finance Typically these are young, well-educated young house- mid-lifers persons wives and insurance industry as well as the Spanish people attracted to the big city because that is Middle- Middle- headquarters of international companies. where the appealing jobs and cultural offerings class class Madrid-Barajas airport is one of Europe’s are. Unemployment in the region overall is elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older largest and the most important hubs for flights somewhat lower than the very high Spanish Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking from Europe to South America. It ensures average, but in the southern part of the central pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers good European and global connections to the plateau one person in five is jobless. A big persons wives Working- Working- alone metropolitan region. problem – as everywhere in Spain – is youth class class unemployment. Around 40 percent of 15- to elderly elderly men women 24-year-olds who are no longer attending Low Low school fail to find a job. The fifth of these who income income women have not completed the higher secondary men

school qualification are particularly hard hit. status Socioeconomic Per capita income is especially low in the southern part of the Spanish central region, Phase of life while in the northern rural areas it corresponds 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older roughly with the Spanish average. + 3 % – 8 % + 18 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2021

Lifeworlds in Europe 73 Spain and no vocational qualification. Around one Overall, the economic structure of this part of Lifeworlds with low income are over- person in four between the ages of 18 and Spain is dominated by sectors and branches represented in this region, those with high The East 24 are so-called NEETS (not in education, with rather low productivity and value added. purchasing power under-represented. People employment, or training). These people In some regions almost 10 percent of the of working age tend to be rather young as a therefore have little prospect of professional population is employed in agriculture – more result of the high rate of in-migration in recent Almost seven million people live in Spain’s success. Cuts in expenditure on education than in almost any other Spanish region. Along years. Thus the lifeworlds of mid-lifers will eastern region, which consists of four have aggravated the situation still further. the coast tourism has a major role to play. probably still grow, whereas overall the group provinces along the coast and Albacete in Manufacturing is concentrated in sectors like of 20- to 59-year-olds is already declining. In the interior. The province of Valencia on the With respect to economic development the the shoe and leather industry, food processing, view of the serious economic situation, the Mediterranean is home to five million people Valencia region was once one of Spain’s furniture production, and textiles. Although lifeworlds of low-income women and men alone. But the neighbouring province of leading lights. It profited strongly from the these sectors offer jobs, their potential for are likely to maintain their large share of the Murcia is also relatively densely populated. property boom, fired on the one hand by innovation is rather low. In terms of turnover population, and many future pensioners will By contrast, very few people live in Albacete strong population growth and on the other car manufacture dominates the northern probably have only a small income. in the interior, even though in terms of area by demand from British or Germans wanting provinces of this part of the country, whereas this province makes up around a quarter of the to settle or buy holiday homes here. The in the south it is food processing. eastern region. Overall the population in the coast around Valencia is one of Spain’s Spanish east grew by a quarter between 2000 most important tourist destinations and is and 2010, mainly through above average in- very built-up. The economic boom was also migration. The new arrivals were mostly young driven by expensive prestige projects, which, and therefore at an age when they might start however, ultimately failed to set in motion families. For this reason, too, more people any sustainable economic development. were born in this region than died. Since 2009, In 2007, for instance, Valencia became the Education Work/Family Retirement however, migration has declined sharply first European city to host the Americas Cup, Top- Top- and the region is losing inhabitants to other one of the most important sailing regattas, Top- ranking ranking ranking Spanish provinces. So the population is likely and since 2008 it has staged a Formula 1 young house- mid-lifers persons wives either to stagnate or to grow slightly in the Grand Prix. Between 1991 and 2006 an Middle- Middle- future and will age considerably. enormous ensemble of cultural and economic class class buildings were constructed here in the hope elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older The region’s population, which has been rather that developing culture would help to get Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking young to date, would represent great potential the economy going. Work has also been in pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers for the region and could contribute to growth progress since 2004 on a new airport for persons wives Working- Working- alone and economic development if only these young Valencia. It is more or less finished but has yet class class people were well educated and sufficient jobs to go into operation and is considered a white elderly elderly men women were available for them. Yet around half of elephant project. Today the Valencia region Low Low those between the ages of 20 and 60 have at is heavily in debt and in July 2012 became income income women most a lower secondary school qualification the first Spanish province to ask the central men

government for financial assistance – closely status Socioeconomic followed by neighbouring Murcia. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 1 % – 9 % + 21 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2021

74 Lifeworlds in Europe Spain Economically the region is very backward. of these low-skilled members of the workforce, the rather young average population. They Per capita GDP is well below the European but today, at 30 percent, unemployment is are likely to grow considerably in the next The South average. Agriculture, construction, and extremely high, and among the economically ten years. Whereas the younger age groups tourism are the most important sectors. In active under the age of 24, more than half are will remain more or less stable in terms of good times they offer many jobs for unskilled looking for jobs. numbers, prognoses expect an increase of a The south of Spain is thinly populated, labour, but these jobs are susceptible to fifth in the over-60-year-olds. The number particularly the areas away from the coast, yet crises and generate only low value added and The economic and age structure of the region of middle-aged and older people of working the number of inhabitants has grown by about productivity. Among the few large industrial is reflected in the distribution of the lifeworlds. age is rising considerably and therefore the 10 percent over the last decade. This trend is companies are the Renault and EADS factories The share of top-ranking lifeworlds is low lifeworlds of mid-lifers are likely to go on likely to level off in the coming decades, and by near Seville, which benefit from the relatively and that of those with low income very high growing. Owing to high unemployment and the the early 2020s the Spanish National Statistics low local labour costs. One sector that may compared with other Spanish regions. This is high share of lifeworlds of low-income women Institute forecasts that this part of the country trigger development and create new jobs is a consequence of the low employment rate and men, many future pensioners will probably will experience only very slight growth of a renewable energy, for the coastal climate and of the sharp rise in unemployment that have only a small income. In view of high few percent. The growth of recent years is not, favours solar and wind power. In Almería and has taken place in recent years. All lifeworlds unemployment and the large number of young however, attributable to a high fertility rate – near Tarifa major solar power stations and in the retirement phase make up a relatively people failing to finish school, the distribution for women in the south have on average only wind farms have been built in recent years. small share of the population on account of of the lifeworlds of the work and family phase just over 1.4 children – rather it was based Exports to date consist mainly of agricultural is likely to shift in the direction of lifeworlds mainly on strong immigration, particularly products. Eighty percent of Spanish vegetables with low income. from nearby North Africa. The flow of migrants for export come from Almería. slowed down sharply following the economic and financial crisis. In some provinces on the So far the prospects for the regional economy Atlantic and the Mediterranean, with their to become a modern, knowledge-based one Education Work/Family Retirement pleasant climate and stunning landscape, are still rather poor. A very large proportion Top- Top- German and British pensioners make up a of the employers here are small and very Top- ranking ranking ranking large part of the immigrants. On average, small companies, which generally do not young house- mid-lifers however, the inhabitants of Spain’s south are persons wives generate many jobs, invest little in research Middle- Middle- comparatively young: almost 45 percent are and development, and are scarcely capable class class younger than 35, and the old age dependency of contributing to regional growth. The elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older ratio is lower than in most West and Central comparatively low educational level of the Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking European regions. population may also put a brake on growth and pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers economic development. In southern Spain one persons wives Working- Working- alone person in three between the ages of 18 and class class 24 has failed to complete school. In particular elderly elderly men women young men leave school at 16 without any Low Low qualification and directly seek work. Until a income income few years ago the construction industry and men women

the services sector were able to absorb many status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 2 % – 4 % + 22 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2021

Lifeworlds in Europe 75 Population in 2011 16,655,799 The Dutch call parts of their homeland “De lage Landen”, the low-lying lands. No THE NETHERLANDS Projected population in 2025 17,069,035 wonder, for around a quarter of the territory Number of children per woman in 2011 1.79 of the Netherlands lies below sea level. Median age in 2011 41.0 The Netherlands is therefore particularly GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 15,969 vulnerable to the forces of nature, such as storm tides or a rise in the sea level as a result Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 25.6 of climate change. This situation is aggravated Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 38.5 further by the fact that the Netherlands is Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 21.3 the most densely populated non city-state in Europe. And population density is expected to increase still further in the future, thanks to a high average fertility rate as well as a certain amount of immigration, which will result in a slight demographic plus.

Compared with other European countries, both economic and demographic development in the Netherlands is rather homogeneous, although the country does have an undisputed centre in the large urban agglomeration of Randstad – consisting of several medium-sized cities together with the major cities of The Hague, Amsterdam, and Rotterdam – where almost half of the 16 million Dutch citizens live. The dominance of this area is, however, balanced out by medium-sized cities spread all over the country like Maastricht, Groningen, Nimwegen, Tilburg, and Enschede. These

76 Lifeworlds in Europe sub-centres are often prosperous business In the meantime, however, the average 80 Part-time Full-time centres with growing populations. Therefore number of children per woman has risen the regional differences when it comes to such again in the Netherlands to become one 70 things as wealth distribution are not as large of the highest in Europe. The basis for this in the Netherlands as in some other European positive demographic development is the 60 countries. And even the structurally somewhat comparatively healthy Dutch economy. The weaker areas in the northern, eastern, and country is one of the economically most 50 southern regions of the country are still powerful in the European Union. Per capita 40 economically much better off than many areas GDP is a third higher than that of Europe in Southern Europe. overall and thus the highest in Europe. At the 30 same time, the unemployment rate is one of Nevertheless, the population of the the lowest among the 27 member-states of 20 Netherlands is aging too. The age group of the European Union. Young people are least over-60-year-olds will grow by more than a affected by unemployment and even when 10 third by 2025. One reason for this is that in people do become unemployed they find a the post-war era until the 1970s fertility in the new job relatively quickly. 0 Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Men Women Netherlands was very high and this generation Italy Spain

of baby boomers is now gradually beginning One of the reasons for the comparatively France Poland Austria to reach pension age. Over the same period rosy state of the economy is the Netherlands’ Germany the population group between 0 and 19 years geographic position. The country benefits Britain Great of age is expected to diminish by almost 10 from the fact that it occupies a central position Netherlands The percent, while the group of older people of between Europe’s three largest economies Percentage of men and women between the ages of 20 Dutch men often work part-time too working age is also likely to shrink markedly. – France, Great Britain, and Germany – and and 64 who work part-time or full-time, 2011 This is the result of the small number of is therefore a transit point for much of (Source: Eurostat) In the Netherlands part-time work is an important component of labour policy introduced in the 1990s children born per woman from the mid-1970s inner-European trade. For this reason, too, with the aim of increasing the economic activity rate of to the mid-1990s, which produced a relatively Rotterdam and Amsterdam are two of Europe’s suffered a slight recession as a result of the women. It succeeded, for today the ratio of women who small generation of parents. Today this cohort largest ports and Schiphol is one of its biggest economic and financial crisis. Consumers and work outside the home is higher than in the other seven is still under 40 and in 2025 will have reached airports. The Netherlands is also home to investors have exercised restraint, and the countries studied and three quarters of them work part- middle to older working age. The changes in highly developed service companies as well government has curbed expenditure. However, time. But even among men, a quarter of the working population do not have full-time jobs. Part-time work the fertility rate in the past are likely to have as industrial giants like Unilever and Philips. the Dutch economy rests on such a firm basis is also part of the government’s family policy, which is a decisive influence on the future size of the Added to this is an efficient agricultural sector, that the Netherlands is likely to regain its place designed to make it easier for both women and men to lifeworlds in all regions of the Netherlands. making the Netherlands one of the world’s at the top of the league table in the near future. combine work and family. Even women with children most important exporters of agricultural under the age of six go out to work much more often in produce. Development has also been driven the Netherlands than in other EU countries. For Russia there were no comparable data available about full- by the exploitation of the large natural gas and part-time work. reserves in the north of the country. The Netherlands’ close economic ties with its neighbours meant that this trading nation

Lifeworlds in Europe 77 The Netherlands at a comparatively low level as is the case for The mixed picture in the northern Netherlands the north is weaker, despite the economic the country as a whole. Many graduates find is reflected in the distribution of the lifeworlds. boost that the economy here has received The North work in Groningen or in the nearby industrial Thanks to the high fertility rate in some from the natural gas industry, and their share centre Delfzijl in the gas, chemicals, or metal provinces the north has the highest share is much lower than in the country as a whole. industries or in shipbuilding. of the lifeworld school pupils in the country. At the same time, the share of low-income The comparatively thinly populated north But in the future they are likely to diminish women and men with low purchasing power is of the Netherlands, which comprises the Many people from the province of Drente to considerably in number as are the lifeworlds a third higher than the national average. While provinces of Groningen, Friesland, and Drente the north therefore commute to the Groningen of middle-aged and older people of working all regions of the Netherlands are doing well overall appears to be a weaker economic area to work. The thinly populated area far age. As in other Dutch regions there is a broad economically and demographically compared region. Here unemployment is higher than in from the coast and near the German border is middle class, but in the top-ranking lifeworlds with the European average, within these the other three Dutch regions and disposable mainly rural. Given, however, that Hamburg, parameters the situation in the north is more income is lower. But if we examine the areas Hanover, the German Ruhr region, Antwerp, problematic than elsewhere. in more detail we find that there is actually and the west Netherlands agglomeration of an economic divide in the north Netherlands. Amsterdam, Rotterdam, and The Hague all lie While Friesland and Drente are indeed the within a 250-km radius of Drente, the region country’s weakest provinces, Groningen, with has the potential for the economy to flourish. a per capita GDP that is 170 percent of the The situation is only slightly better in the coastal European average, is by far the economically province of Friesland, where people live mainly most powerful Dutch province. This is from tourism or livestock farming. The area is attributable mainly to the local reserves of also home to several major companies, from the natural gas, which are exploited close to the food industry, for example. provincial capital of the same name and drive Education Work/Family Retirement the regional economy. At the same time, Whereas the average number of children Top- Top- purchasing power in Groningen is the lowest of per woman in the province of Groningen is Top- ranking ranking ranking all Dutch provinces, signifying that the profits exceptionally low on account of the many young house- mid-lifers persons wives of the gas industry do not necessarily benefit students there, women in Friesland and Drente Middle- Middle- the local population have an average of two children, a figure class class that is almost high enough to prevent the elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older The area around Groningen, the only major population shrinking even without immigration. Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking conurbation in the north and its unofficial But whereas in Friesland out-migration pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers centre, is home to around 350,000 people. compensates for natural population growth, persons wives Working- Working- alone As one of the country’s oldest university in Drente the population will increase slightly class class cities it attracts many young people. The in the future. This province also has by far elderly elderly men women region therefore has a slightly above average the highest share of long-term unemployed Low Low proportion of people under the age of 35. in the country – a consequence of structural income income women Although more people are unemployed in the change towards larger and more efficient men

province of Groningen than in any other Dutch agrarian concerns. Since this points to a further status Socioeconomic region, the unemployment rate is nonetheless reduction in jobs in this province, it may in the future also suffer out-migration. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 13 % – 7 % + 33 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

78 Lifeworlds in Europe The Netherlands The two provinces North and South Holland GDP, Utrecht is the country’s economically All in all, the west Netherlands has a young form the centre of the west Netherlands. strongest province. It also has a relatively population with high purchasing power and The West Amsterdam, the largest Dutch city, is located in young population. The province of Zeeland a broad middle class. More than a quarter North Holland. Around 1.1 million people live on the border with Belgium has a slightly less of consumers are classified in top-ranking in greater Amsterdam, which is headquarters flourishing economy. It consists mainly of lifeworlds – more than in other parts of the The economic pulse of the Netherlands to major Dutch companies like the brewery islands and peninsulas and until the1980s country. By contrast, the share of low-income beats in the provinces North Holland, South Heineken or the electronics company Philips. was badly connected in terms of transport. men and women is the lowest in the whole Holland, Utrecht, and Zeeland. This is where Close to Amsterdam is also Schiphol airport, Although there are some docks here as well country. Because the number of children born the Netherlands’ major cities The Hague, one of the largest in Europe. Amsterdam is as the petrochemicals industry, overall the per woman at 1.5 was relatively low until the Amsterdam, and Rotterdam are located, which almost entirely responsible for the fact that province’s economic performance is below mid-1990s, prognoses expect the middle- together with a number of other cities form North Holland has the highest per capita GDP average and population development is aged working population to decline, while the the dominant conurbation Randstad. This in the whole country. This figure is slightly stagnating. Since many young people are number of people of 60 years and older will area is home to around 40 percent of the lower in South Holland where the provincial leaving Zeeland to look for work in other strongly increase. However, since it is a magnet Dutch and is one of Europe’s most densely capital, The Hague, is situated, which is the provinces and a comparatively high number for immigrants, the western region need not populated regions. Although women in the Dutch seat of government and home to several of pensioners settle here, the population is on worry about its demographic future. west Netherlands have slightly fewer children international organisations. Economically average the oldest in the country. than in other parts of the country, here the more significant is Rotterdam, which also immigration balance is highest, so that the has a larger population. It is the Netherlands’ number of inhabitants is set to grow sharply leading industrial and trading city and is in the future. The league table is headed by Europe’s largest sea port. Thus many major the west Netherlands province of Utrecht, companies in the transport, logistics, and whose population is expected to increase by chemicals sectors have established themselves Education Work/Family Retirement 10 percent by 2025. The west Netherlands is around Rotterdam. The city attracts foreign Top- Top- also the country’s economic powerhouse and immigrants, who have helped lower the Top- ranking ranking ranking has a gross regional product that is among average age of the city’s population but young house- mid-lifers persons wives the highest in Europe. Here people have are also in some cases the source of social Middle- Middle- more disposable income than anywhere else tensions. class class in the country, and the share of long-term elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older unemployed is the lowest in the whole country. East of South Holland lies the province of Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking The few unemployed thus usually do not take Utrecht with its capital of the same name. pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers long to find a new job. One reason for this is Utrecht roughly marks the geographical persons wives Working- Working- alone the flourishing services sector which, with the centre of the Netherlands and is its smallest class class exception of the industrial centre Rotterdam, province. On account of its central position the elderly elderly men women is responsible for the majority of economic city of Utrecht with its 660,000 inhabitants Low Low performance. is an important transport hub. It is home income income to many service companies, such as banks, men women

insurance companies, and the Dutch state status Socioeconomic railways company Nederlandse Spoorwegen. Apart from Groningen, where the natural gas Phase of life industry is responsible for very high per capita 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 8 % – 4 % + 37 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 79 The Netherlands the Netherlands’ most populous city. Almere form the second-largest Dutch conurbation more attractive as a place to live. Although the was built as a new city in 1975 in order to after The Hague-Amsterdam-Rotterdam. Yet number of people over the age of 59 is set to The East take some of the spillover from the densely outside these large cities Gelderland is mainly increase by 40 percent in the east by 2025, populated conurbation. Today it is the fastest agricultural and is also the location of the their share today is still comparatively small. growing city in the Netherlands. Since it was Netherlands’ largest forest. Tomorrow’s pensioners are likely on average With respect to per capita GDP the east founded, the number of inhabitants has grown to be better off than today’s, since the latter Netherlands, comprising the provinces of from around 50 people to approximately Despite the rather stagnant development in include many former workers in industry. What Overijssel, Gelderland, and Flevoland, comes 190,000. However, as in Flevoland as a many areas, the east Netherlands – thanks is more, since many children are being born bottom. Disposable income is also below whole, the increase in jobs has not been able in part to the young and dynamic Flevoland in the region, the lifeworlds of the education the national average, although still slightly to keep pace with population growth. The province – is in a good position both phase are well represented. The provinces of higher than in the economically weak north. unemployment rate in the province is the economically and demographically. Many the east Netherlands also lead the country in This region, however, tops the league table in second highest in the country. commuters to The Hague, Amsterdam, and their share of mid-ranking young persons – a terms of the number of children per woman. Rotterdam live in Flevoland and in parts of further sign of how well this part of the country One important reason for this is to be found East of Flevoland lies the province of Gelderland. Since these metropolitan regions is developing. The young lifeworlds of the work in the province of Flevoland, which is the Overijssel. The provincial capital is Zwolle with are expected to grow in the future, the and family phases are also likely to remain youngest of the Dutch provinces and consists a population of around 120,000. However, the surrounding region is also likely to become stable in terms of numbers, whereas those of mainly of terrain that has emerged as a result largest urban settlement in Flevoland is the mid-lifers will decrease slightly. of land reclamation over the past 100 years. city of Enschede with 160,000 inhabitants. Flevoland is therefore made up mainly of Enschede was once the centre of the Dutch artificial islands and peninsulas surrounded by textiles industry, but since the 1960s the lakes and canals. Here the Netherlands is busy city has undergone major structural change executing a plan to enlarge its geographically as a result of growing competition from low- Education Work/Family Retirement restricted country. Although most of this newly wage countries and this is still continuing Top- Top- gained land is used for agriculture, the Dutch today. Nevertheless, Enschede, along with the Top- ranking ranking ranking are also planning and building several new surrounding region of Twente, is an important young house- mid-lifers persons wives towns and villages in the region. These attract location for Dutch industry. As well as Middle- Middle- new inhabitants, so that Flevoland has a very companies from a whole range of sectors, the class class positive migration balance. For this reason, technology-oriented Enschede University also elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older too, the population is expected to grow by has a major role to play. Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking almost 20 percent by 2025. pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers South of Overijssel stretches the large province persons wives Working- Working- alone Because the in-migrants include many young of Gelderland, in which three larger cities with class class families, the province’s population is younger between 140,000 and 160,000 inhabitants elderly elderly men women than average, and women have comparatively are located. One of these is Apeldoorn in north- Low Low many children. west Gelderland, which, on account of its income income women central position in the country, has attracted men

The city of Almere in the south-west of numerous industrial and services companies, status Socioeconomic the province is particularly attractive for as well as national state institutions. The migrants. It is only 25 km from Amsterdam other main cities in the region are Nimwegen, Phase of life and is part of the greater metropolitan area of which is a similar size to Apeldoorn, and the 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older provincial capital Arnhem. Together these – 8 % – 3 % + 40 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

80 Lifeworlds in Europe The Netherlands restructuring measures – for example by companies, such as the lorry manufacturer been able to stabilise in terms of numbers, moving the national statistics office to Heerlen DAF. Other important companies are located even though this cohort ought to be declining. The South in Limburg. This is also the headquarters of in Breda, a city in the western part of North The number of young people of working age is the former mining and now chemicals and Brabant with a population of 180,000. They also likely to remain relatively stable. In terms pharmaceuticals giant Koninklijke DSM, which include the food giant Royal Cosun as well as of the share of the mid-ranking lifeworlds, The south Netherlands is one of the country’s provides many jobs. The cities of Venlo and some branches of the Belgian brewery concern the provinces of Limburg and North Brabant industrial centres and has two provinces: Roermond on the German border, on the other Anheuser-Busch InBev. occupy the lowest places in the national North Brabant and Limburg. In terms of hand, have become destinations for people ranking, whereas a relatively large number economic performance the region comes about from the German Rhine and Ruhr regions Firms like these have attracted many well- of people belong to the lifeworlds with low half way down the national league table but in going on day trips or shopping excursions. The qualified young people, so that the share of income. In addition, the average fertility rate, European terms is still way above average. The extreme south of Limburg borders on Belgian the lifeworld of top-ranking young persons in which has been falling steadily for years in south Netherlands has the highest proportion Wallonia, meaning that the provincial capital, the south is the highest in the Netherlands. the south Netherlands, means that the share of Catholics in what is mainly a Protestant Maastricht, with around 120,000 inhabitants The lifeworld of top-ranking mid-lifers has of youth living here is lower than anywhere country. This has given rise to a number of is French-influenced. This ancient university else in the country. The future prospects of the cultural particularities: for a long time the town is rich in culture, with several educational south Netherlands are therefore rather mixed. south was the area with the largest average institutions which attract an above average family size in the Netherlands, but now the number of foreign students. Maastricht is also women in this area have the lowest fertility home to a number of industrial companies, rate in the whole country. Since the number including large parts of the traditional Dutch of children born per woman has been falling ceramics industry. since the 1960s, this area now has the lowest share of under-35-year-olds. For this reason the The neighbouring province of North Brabant Education Work/Family Retirement region will age more than average in the future. is mainly agricultural and attracts many Top- Top- tourists. The province’s few cities are home Top- ranking ranking ranking Particularly in Limburg, the southernmost to many industries and industrial services. young house- mid-lifers persons wives Dutch province, the number of children The provincial capital is Hertogenbosch with Middle- Middle- per woman is way below the national 140,000 inhabitants. However, the epithet class class average. Moreover, the region also suffers “heart of Brabant” is claimed by the nearby elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older from out-migration, so that its population city of Tilburg with 200,000 inhabitants. Once Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking will shrink more than any other by 2025. a textiles centre, Tilburg went through a painful pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers One reason for this is the comparatively process of structural change in the 1980s. persons wives Working- Working- alone poor economic development of this former Today, however, its economy is flourishing class class coal-mining region. With the decline of the again with a broad spectrum of sectors ranging elderly elderly men women coal industry in the 1960s, it lost many from chemicals to printing, banking, and Low Low jobs and has still not recovered from this insurance. The slightly larger city of Eindhoven income income women turn of events. Nevertheless, the state has is considered the technology centre of the men

sought to counteract the effects through south and also has an important Technical status Socioeconomic University. In addition the Dutch multinational Philips has factories here and also operates Phase of life a Research and Development Centre. This is 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older supplemented by numerous other technology – 13 % – 8 % + 34 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 81 Population in 2011 8,404,252 Austria got its name “Österreich”, which literally means eastern territory, back in the AUSTRIA Projected population in 2025 8,866,411 Middle Ages when it often formed the eastern Number of children per woman in 2011 1.44 part of various empires and states. Austria Median age in 2011 42.0 was regarded as part of Eastern Europe and GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 20,200 enjoyed good relations with other states and regions in this part of the continent. Later, too, Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 27.6 Austria in its various official incarnations was Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 30.4 oriented mainly towards the east, an alignment Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 27.0 that was interrupted only during the Cold War when trading relations with the East Bloc were practically non-existent. This is one of the reasons why the Alpine republic for a long time lagged behind Germany economically and did not become a member of the EU until 1995, ten years after Spain and Portugal. Today Austria once again benefits from its geographical position: as a neighbour of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia it forms the gateway to Eastern Europe. No other country in the western EU has better traditions of relationships with Central and Eastern Europe than Austria.

The Alps cover almost two thirds of Austrian territory and these areas are hence only partially habitable if at all. This is one reason why the territory of Austria, in statistical terms, is less than half as densely populated as Germany. Austria can be divided into roughly three parts. A fifth of Austria’s population of somewhat more than eight million lives in greater Vienna in the north-east of the country. Here the population is growing, mainly as a result of in-migration. Although the north-east overall is comparatively densely populated, its economic indicators vary. The

82 Lifeworlds in Europe somewhat less densely populated north-west, Percentage of No. of patents registered at on the other hand, is economically rather GDP the European Patent Office per million employees in 2010 successful, above all the prosperous cities of Salzburg, Innsbruck, and Linz. More worrying, 3.0 600 economically speaking, is the south, which is Germany Germany overall rather structurally weak. One exception 2.5 500 to this is the up-and-coming area around Graz, Austria’s second-largest city after Vienna. France 2.0 400 The Netherlands Despite the problems in the south, Austria is Austria the Netherlands Great Britain France overall a very prosperous country. Per capita 1.5 300 purchasing power is one of the highest in Russia the EU. One reason for this is its economic Austria Italy performance, which is likewise one of the 1.0 200 Spain highest in Europe. Since Germany is by far the Italy most important trading partner of Austria, the Great Britain 0.5 100 latter’s GDP correlates closely with economic Poland Poland trends in the neighbouring state, although Spain Austrian per capita GDP is in fact higher than 0 0 Germany’s and ranks in second place behind 0123 the Netherlands within the EU. Following a 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average company expenditure on research and development decline in the wake of the financial crisis, Company expenditure on research and development as a percentage of GDP, 1985–2010 as a percentage of GDP, 2005–2009 Austria can now boast comparatively healthy (Source: Eurostat) (Source: Eurostat) growth figures. does provide a large number of jobs. Austria also responsible for the fact that Austria’s Will Austria soon be Europe’s top innovator? The economy is divided into a small, but therefore has one of the lowest unemployment population is continuing to grow at a moderate relatively well-developed agricultural sector, a rates in the EU. Only a few young people pace. The average number of children born Companies in Germany and Austria invest a particularly large amount in research and development (R&D) healthy, albeit not very large, industrial sector, are without a job, for the well-developed per woman, by contrast, is rather low, which relative to GDP. R&D expenditure since the 1980s and an extensive services sector. Trade, with vocational training system means that entry could cause problems in the future. Prognoses rose more sharply in Austria than anywhere else by Eastern Europe as well as Germany, accounts into the world of work is relatively smooth. predict that the number of births and deaths far. Spending on R&D has risen in Spanish companies, for the largest share of GDP. Almost a tenth of And even when people do lose their jobs, they will remain balanced for another 20 years. In too, but it is well below that of the leading countries. GDP comes from tourism, for Austria is one of usually find new ones quickly. terms of age structure, then, Austria comes In places where more is spent on research and on developing new technology, there is generally more Europe’s most popular tourist destinations. somewhere in the middle when compared with innovation, which translates into patents. In 2010 The Austrian economy is based mainly on The positive labour market situation attracts the rest of the EU. But like so many other EU Germany was particularly successful by comparison many small and medium-sized enterprises. many immigrants from Germany, who states Austria is looking for ideas that will lead with the investment of previous years. Given its high Although its structure means that it employs form the largest group of EU foreigners. to the birth rate increasing once more. level of investment, Austria may catch up with Germany in the coming years. relatively few highly-qualified people, it Overall, however, immigrants from the former Yugoslavia are Austria’s largest group of inhabitants with foreign roots. These immigrants mean that Austria has a solid positive migration balance and are

Lifeworlds in Europe 83 Austria the unemployment rate is low. The centrally The dominance of industry, agriculture, and and family phase belong to the lifeworlds of located city of Salzburg is also booming tourism and the resulting low share of high- the middle class. Many of them, however, are The North-West economically and is exceeded only by Vienna tech jobs means that north-west Austria already older and will reach retirement age in in terms of per capita GDP. Other large is not a knowledge and innovation centre. the coming 10 to 20 years. Overall the number industrial companies and a successful small The share of the lifeworld of students in the of people of working age is falling slightly, but The north-west of Austria covers around 40 and medium-sized private sector are otherwise population over the age of 14 is comparatively the healthy economic situation means that the percent of the total territory but is home to to be found only in the densely populated state low, and the top-ranking lifeworlds are also mid- and top-ranking lifeworlds with higher only just over a third of all Austrians. It is of Vorarlberg in the very west of the country on proportionately smaller than in other parts purchasing power have the potential to remain thus less densely populated than average, the border with Switzerland and the German of Austria. Overall, however, the inhabitants more or less stable numerically. The number of yet its economic performance is above both state of Bavaria. of the north-west region are materially well people over 60, on the other hand, is expected the Austrian and European average almost off. What is more, many people benefit from to increase by almost 40 percent by 2025. everywhere – and growth is higher here than The dominance of agriculture and forestry, this level of prosperity: thanks to the many Although many of these future pensioners are anywhere else in Austria. Per capita GDP tourism, and industry means that a relatively solid small- and medium-sized businesses an likely to be well provided for, the aging of the is about a third above the EU average, and small proportion of employees are highly above average share of people in the work population and shortage of younger members the inhabitants of this area have a level of qualified people working in high-tech jobs. of the workforce present challenges for the purchasing power that is almost a quarter Nevertheless, thanks to the numerous family region. above the EU average. Thus the population of businesses, the ratios of women and older this area is relatively prosperous. The economy people in the workforce are higher than the of north-west Austria is characterised mainly Austrian average, and youth unemployment is by small- and medium-sized businesses, the lowest nationwide. many of them in the tourism sector. Indeed, north-west Austria has almost twice as many In recent years the state of Vorarlberg has Education Work/Family Retirement overnight stays per 1,000 inhabitants as shown the highest population growth in the Top- Top- the national average. Many other small- and country and has the youngest population. Top- ranking ranking ranking medium-sized businesses are engaged in Although women in north-west Austria have young house- mid-lifers persons wives agriculture and forestry. The state of Upper on average more children than in other parts Middle- Middle- Austria, for instance, has the largest stocks of of the country, population growth in the region class class cattle and pigs in the country. This northern is accounted for mainly by in-migration, even elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older state, of which Linz is the capital, is also one if this is a smaller factor than in other parts of Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking of north-west Austria’s few industrial centres Austria. In addition, the number of children per pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers and is responsible for a quarter of the country’s woman has, contrary to the general European persons wives Working- Working- alone exports. One Austrian in four employed in trend, dropped slightly in recent years. For the class class production works here, and thanks to industry time being, however, Vorarlberg and Upper elderly elderly men women Austria still have the youngest population in Low Low the country, so that the old age dependency income income women ratio is also lower than anywhere else in men

Austria. status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 9 % – 4 % + 38 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

84 Lifeworlds in Europe Austria Nonetheless, the unemployment rate in Vienna agricultural region. A third of the value added the plethora of companies and international is by far the highest in Austria, although at generated by Austrian agriculture comes from organisations located in Vienna who live either The North-East 7 percent in 2011 it was still well below the this region, which is also home to important in the city itself or in the rural surroundings. European average. The same goes for youth Austrian wine-growing areas. In 2008 around Since Vienna offers many exciting employment unemployment. The Viennese economy 8 percent of employees in this state worked in opportunities for ambitious young people Austria’s north-east region achieves several attracts many well-qualified young people, the primary sector, i.e. agriculture and forestry. and, unlike the rest of Austria, the number of top rankings – both positive and negative. who are then in short supply in other parts In Austrian and European terms that is a great people under the age of 60 is likely to go on The share of long-term unemployed is higher of the country. The capital therefore has one deal. growing in the future, the mid- and top-ranking here than anywhere else in Austria. At the of the highest migration surpluses in Austria. lifeworlds with high purchasing power are same time the average level of prosperity is The young migrants continually rejuvenate Thanks to the modern economic structure and likely to remain stable or increase slightly. higher in north-east Austria than in any other the age structure, which means that the share the attraction of Vienna for highly qualified The lifeworlds of young persons, in particular, part of the country and it is also the region of pensioners in the population in the future, people, north-east Austria has the country’s are likely to grow considerably. This positive with the highest incomes among the working too, will probably remain lower than that in all highest share of top-ranking lifeworlds. These development will, however, continue to be population. This is hardly surprising, given that Austria’s other states. Many of the migrants include many employees and managers of led by Vienna and its surroundings, while this is where the capital, Vienna, is located. are students who come to Vienna to study at the population of regions on the periphery Vienna is the economic and cultural centre one of the numerous universities and colleges continue to have lower purchasing power. both of the region and of the country. It has a in the capital. Vienna is also in a position to long cultural tradition, is regarded today as the offer them attractive jobs when they graduate, centre of a modern knowledge- and services- so many of them remain in the city. The share based economy, and has several times been of highly-qualified members of the workforce declared the city with the highest quality of life is thus almost ten percentage points higher in the world. than the Austrian average. The population of Education Work/Family Retirement Vienna is expected to increase by 14 percent Top- Top- Around a quarter of all Austrians live in greater by 2025 and is hence the state with the highest Top- ranking ranking ranking Vienna, which is also part of the state of population growth in Austria, in part at the young house- mid-lifers the same name. Per capita GDP is by far the persons wives expense of other regions. Middle- Middle- highest in all of Austria and almost twice as class class high as in remote Burgenland in the south- Lower Austria also benefits from the elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older east of the country. In terms of GDP Vienna attractiveness of Vienna. In conjunction with Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking is well above the European average and is the it surrounds, this state pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers one of the wealthiest regions in the EU. One forms the region of north-east Austria. Not persons wives Working- Working- alone reason for this is that it is home to numerous only does Lower Austria have the second- class class international organisations and companies highest population growth in the country, in elderly elderly men women that use Vienna as a gateway to Eastern economic terms, too, the state profits from the Low Low Europe. The city has benefited especially from economic power of the capital. The territories income income the EU’s eastern enlargement. bordering on greater Vienna benefit from the men women

high purchasing power of the Viennese. The status Socioeconomic further away from Vienna an area of Lower Austria is situated, the weaker its economic Phase of life performance. Overall Lower Austria is still an 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 9 % + 5 % + 27 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 85 Austria A real economic powerhouse of the region Despite the structural weakness of some All lifeworlds of the retirement phase are is Styria, located further west, which leads parts of south Austria, the population is expected to grow significantly by 2025. The South Austria in terms of economic growth. In not badly off – a consequence among other While some future pensioners will live rather particular the car industry in the up-and- things of the overall high purchasing power modestly, others will be very well provided for. coming conurbation of Graz, including the of Austrian consumers. But prosperity is The number of under-60-year-olds is expected South Austria, encompassing the state of components supplier Magna, is driving growth. spread less evenly than in the regions further to decline by around a tenth. Therefore all Carinthia in the south-west, Styria in the Environmental technology, too, is booming in north: although the share of those in the lifeworlds of both the education and the work south, and Burgenland in the extreme east, is Graz, and these sectors are responsible for the lifeworlds with lower purchasing power is and family phases will become smaller. It is structurally the weakest area of the country. fact that, statistically speaking, Styria invests above the national average, the share of the now imperative for south Austria to create Per capita GDP and average disposable the largest share of its gross regional product wealthier top-ranking lifeworlds with high sufficient attractive jobs for the many students income are thus both the lowest in Austria. in research and development of all Austrian socioeconomic status is scarcely lower than in so that they do not move elsewhere after Burgenland, especially, which in terms of states. other Austrian regions, while the mid-ranking graduating but instead remain in the region population is the smallest state, is on account lifeworlds are relatively underrepresented. and contribute to growth and productivity. The of its former status as the EU external border to Overall, though, south Austria lags behind, western parts of the region are well on the way Eastern Europe economically underdeveloped not only in economic terms but also in terms to doing this, whereas eastern Burgenland is – and is also the only region in Austria to of education and fertility. The number of likely to remain Austria’s most troublesome receive special funding from the European graduates in the population is below the area economically for the foreseeable future. Union. Here per capita GDP is only just over Austrian average, and the regional fertility three-quarters of the EU average. Despite rate is the lowest in the whole country. In this difficult situation, the unemployment Styria, for example, women on average have rate is below that of Austria as a whole. One only 1.3 children, which is below the already reason for this is that around 40 percent low Austrian average of around 1.4 children Education Work/Family Retirement of the workforce in Burgenland has found per woman. And the situation is not expected Top- Top- work elsewhere and commute, many of them to improve, especially given that the ratio of Top- ranking ranking ranking to nearby Vienna. One source of hope in women per 100 men between the ages of 20 young house- mid-lifers Burgenland is the booming wind energy sector. persons wives and 29 is lower here than anywhere else in the Middle- Middle- The region leads Europe in this sector and country. As a result, south Austria has a large class class already produces two thirds of its electricity proportion of older people. Even today the elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older with wind power. In fact, by 2013 it plans to share of under-35-year-olds in the population Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking have switched completely to this alternative is the lowest and the share of over-75-year-olds pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers source of energy. the highest in all of Austria. To date, a slightly persons wives Working- Working- alone positive migration balance has been able to class class compensate for the decline in the birth rate elderly elderly men women in south Austria and has kept the population Low Low stable. This positive migration balance is not income income large, however, and in Carinthia more people men women

moved away than arrived in 2009/2010. Thus, status Socioeconomic from a current perspective the population is hardly likely to grow through in-migration. Phase of life Carinthia is the only Austrian state where the 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older population is expected to decline by 2025. – 10 % – 8 % + 30 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

86 Lifeworlds in Europe Population in 2011 60,626,442 With every degree of latitude one travels south along the 1,000-km long Italian peninsula, ITALY Projected population in 2025 61,683,434 from the Alps to the heel and toe of the boot, Number of children per woman in 2011 1.41 the key economic indicators become slightly Median age in 2011 43.5 worse. There is scarcely another European GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 16,388 country that has such crass inequalities with such a clear geographical distribution as Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 19.7 Italy: the further south one goes, the lower Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 31.8 the per capita GDP and level of prosperity Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 29.9 are and the higher the level of unemployment is. While the north of the country is one of the European continent’s economically most powerful regions, the south is dependent on development funds from the EU. Nevertheless, viewed overall Italy’s data do not look bad. The fourth largest country in the European Union is one of its highest net contributors; overall per capita GDP and disposable incomes are slightly above the EU average; and the population has grown by around 6 percent over the past decade. But this positive picture is only made possible by the fact that the very good figures for northern Italy statistically raise the data for the country as a whole.

Lifeworlds in Europe 87 Looked at separately, the Mezzogiorno, as Any improvement in this respect seems 80 20- to 64-year-olds southern Italy is known, is well below average unlikely in the foreseeable future, since the 20- to 64-year-old women on many counts. Nevertheless, its population Italian economy is not in a position to provide 55- to 64-year-olds 70 is still relatively young, a consequence of the the majority of the country’s inhabitants with a fact that the average number of children born sufficient economic basis to start a family. Italy per woman in many of the strongly Catholic has too few globally competitive companies 60 underdeveloped southern Italian provinces producing profitable high-tech goods or was very high for many years. Nevertheless, services. Expenditure on research and 50 for many decades these economically weak development is low by European standards, regions had to contend with mass emigration, and the share of highly-qualified people in the and even today some families from the south workforce is relatively low. Italy’s economy is 40 still seek their fortunes abroad or in the based on a few major companies like the car north of the country, even if the numbers manufacturer Fiat, the aircraft manufacturer are far smaller than during the major waves Finmeccanica and the insurance company 30 of emigration at the beginning of the 20th Assicurazioni Generali. The country has a century and between the 1950s and 1970s. In broad base of small and medium-sized family 20 economic centres like Milan, Turin, and Genoa businesses in the processing sector, the food in the north-west or in Venice and Trieste in industry, tourism, and fashion and design. But the north-east the picture is all the more rosy, these often have a hard time competing on 10 for these areas attract many migrants. global markets. 0 All in all, however, Italy has a big aging One consequence of this rather weak Italy EU 27EU problem, almost as big as Germany’s. One global competitiveness is large-scale youth Spain Russia France Poland Austria reason for this is the fertility rate, which unemployment. Moreover, almost half of the Germany underwent a sharp decline in the 1980s and Italian unemployed have been without a job Britain Great today is still at a low level of around 1.4. for twelve months or more – a sign of how Netherlands The According to prognoses, the number of people entrenched the economic situation is. Many Employment rates of 20- to 64-year-olds, How well do countries use their potential under 20 will decline rapidly in the coming of the unemployed disappear into the black 20- to 64-year-old women, and 55- to 64-year- workforce? years and by 2030 the age group of over- economy, which is large in Italy. Observers olds (Russia: 20- to 59-year-olds and 55- to 59-year-olds), 2011 65s will make up more than a quarter of the assume that up to a third of Italian economic In all the countries studied fewer women between (Russia 2010) the ages of 20 and 64 went out to work than men and population – a value exceeded in only a few performance is unofficial and therefore fails (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat; own calculations) fewer older people than those who were younger. The other European countries such as Germany, to benefit the country – a vicious circle which differences in the employment ratios between genders which is experiencing very heavy aging. Italy has so far failed to break. and age groups varies to different extents in different countries. In Italy only half of women and not even 40 percent of 55- to 64-year-olds are employed in the official labour market, which is a particularly low ratio. And even in countries where the differences are smaller, such as Germany or the Netherlands, female labour volume is considerably lower than male, since women much more often work part-time. In Russia the employment rate for women is traditionally very high.

88 Lifeworlds in Europe Italy the relatively small regions of Liguria on Whereas the mountainous north and the an above average share of the population. the coast and Aosta on the border with agricultural areas of the south are rather Because of the low birth rate, however, the The North-West Switzerland. Liguria’s capital, Genoa, is an thinly populated, almost half of Piedmont’s region also has the lowest share of school important container port, but what was once population lives in greater Turin. With a pupils in the population. In addition, the a centre of heavy industry now suffers from population of 900,000 people this city is already large number of people over the age In comparison with other parts of the country, an unemployment rate that is high by north located at the very heart of the region. Turin is of 60 is likely to increase by almost a fifth by the north-west of Italy is very much Italy’s Italian standards, and its population is aging home to several major companies, including 2025. The lifeworlds of mid-lifers are expected economic powerhouse. This is where the cities and shrinking in terms of numbers. Aosta lives the car manufacturer Fiat, an abbreviation to remain more or less stable numerically, of Milan, Turin, and Genoa are located – Italy’s mainly from agriculture and tourism, but its for “Fabbrica Italiana di Automobili Torino”. while the younger age groups are already three most important industrial locations. They population is rather prosperous because the Other major companies include the food giant declining. The demographic future of the make the area one of Europe’s top economic area is also home to many innovative small and Ferrero and the electronics firm Olivetti. north-west thus depends on its attractiveness performers, resulting in Italy’s second-lowest medium-sized businesses. as an economic location, for it must continue unemployment rate. In 2011 unemployment in Thanks to the many jobs provided by major to bring young migrants to the region. the north-west was more than two percentage The majority of the territory of north-west Italy employers like these, the Italian north-west points below the Italian average. At the same is covered by two regions: Piedmont, with its has the country’s largest share of the middle- time, per capita GDP and disposable incomes capital, Turin, and Lombardy, where Milan is class lifeworlds in the work and family and are higher in the north-west than anywhere the main city. Lombardy has by far the largest retirement phases. The top-ranking lifeworlds else in the country. The north-west is also population of all Italian regions. With ten with high purchasing power also make up densely populated, its population having risen million people, four million more people live sharply during the major migration to the north here than in the second-most populous region from other parts of the country between the of Campania where the major city of Naples 1950s and 1970s. At that time several million is located. With over a million inhabitants, Education Work/Family Retirement people migrated from the underdeveloped the Lombard capital, Milan, is Italy’s second- Top- Top- south to the northern industrial centres, largest city after Rome and the conurbation Top- ranking ranking ranking seeking to sell their cheap labour and thus surrounding it is the most populous in Italy. young house- mid-lifers persons wives benefit from the Italian economic miracle that This large populace finds work in a prosperous Middle- Middle- occurred in this area in the post-war era; in so economy covering a broad range of sectors. class class doing, they also helped to fuel the boom. In Milan is one of Europe’s most important elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older the coming years, however, the population of industrial locations, but the city is also a key Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking the north-west will increase only moderately centre for trading and banking, and its fashion pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers in most places and even fall in some parts of and design industry is famous the world over. persons wives Working- Working- alone the region owing to the very low fertility rate, Overall, almost half of Italy’s major companies class class which cannot be compensated for even by are based in Milan, which is also the country’s elderly elderly men women the slightly above average in-migration still foremost transport hub. Low Low taking place. The north-west also includes income income women Piedmont, which literally means “at the foot of men

the mountains”, lies in the Alpine arc. It lags status Socioeconomic only slightly behind Lombardy in economic terms and is still far above the Italian average. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 2 % – 3 % + 18 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 89 Italy Typical for the situation in the north-east is and Maserati. Friuli-Venezia Giulia in the east of the workforce are on average well provided the autonomous region of Trentino-South of the region is also well off economically. for and this is likely to apply to many future The North-East Tyrol. Immediately after the Second World The regional capital Trieste, with its 200,000 pensioners as well. Although the share of War much of this corner of Italy was remote, inhabitants, is the headquarters of the students is the lowest in Italy, highly qualified mainly agricultural hinterland. But like many insurance company Assicurazioni Generali and people are not necessarily required for the Like the north-west, the north-east of Italy other areas of northern Italy it experienced the coffee producer Illy. Unlike the rest of the region to continue to develop positively, for also scores well above average in economic a major boom shortly thereafter and today north-east, however, Friuli-Venezia Giulia has the north-east’s prosperity is based largely terms. When we look at the situation more is one of the country’s economically most demographic problems. Since the 1960s it has on small- and medium-sized companies, only closely, however, we find that the wealth is successful regions. South Tyrol today has an lost a quarter of its population, and because some of which make high-tech products. more evenly distributed than in the north- unemployment rate of under 3 percent and the number of children per woman is still Like in the north-west, the number of 20- to west, where greater Milan and Turin are thus by far the lowest rate in the whole of Italy. below the Italian average, it is set to decline 59-year-olds is expected to remain more chiefly responsible for the high average figure. Youth unemployment is very low here, and an further in population terms in the coming or less stable, but within the population of In north-east Italy, by contrast, nearly all above average proportion of women go out to years. working age the number of young people areas are prosperous. The main driver of this work. The inhabitants of Trentino-South Tyrol will fall considerably while the number of development is, as in the Milan-Turin-Genoa work in the food industry, where they mainly One indicator of the north-east’s overall older members of the workforce will increase triangle, industry. But in terms of intensity grow fruit and wine, in tourism, especially prosperity is the fact that it can boast the slightly. the industry of the north-east lies somewhere winter sports, and in small and medium- highest shares of the top-ranking lifeworlds between the industrial centres in the north- sized companies producing special building in the whole of Italy. Today’s older members west and less-industrialised southern Italy. materials or engaging in arts and crafts. In For instead of major corporations, nearly all the coming years the population is expected corners of the north-east are populated by to grow more strongly here than in any other highly specialised small and medium-sized region of Italy. Education Work/Family Retirement companies. They are responsible for the lowest Top- Top- unemployment rate in the whole country The Veneto is also a prosperous region, its Top- ranking ranking ranking and the second-highest household incomes capital, Venice, being Italy’s most popular young house- mid-lifers persons wives after the north-west. Until around 40 years tourist destination. Despite its position on the Middle- Middle- ago, large swathes of the north-east were ecologically sensitive Po delta amid numerous class class structurally weak and thus classic emigration lagoons, it is also one of Italy’s most important elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older regions. Nowadays, increasing prosperity industrial centres. Mestre and Marghera, Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking attracts many migrants to the region. At the the two districts of Venice situated on the pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers same time, the average number of children per mainland, are home to oil refineries, chemicals persons wives Working- Working- alone woman is the highest in Italy. Thus, unlike in factories, and docks. class class other areas of the country, the age groups of elderly elderly men women under-20-year-olds and 20- to 59-year-olds are The top economic position in the north-east Low Low expected to remain numerically more or less is, however, occupied by Emilia-Romagna, income income women stable until 2025. which together with Lombardy and Aosta is men

among Italy’s wealthiest regions. Alongside status Socioeconomic traditional industries like ceramics and machine-building and newer ones like robotics Phase of life and bio-medicine, the area is also home to the 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older sports car manufacturers Ferrari, Lamborghini, – 1 % – 1 % + 22 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

90 Lifeworlds in Europe Italy the film sector, the city’s strong dependence on All in all, despite these difficulties, Central Thanks to the many traditional university state and international organisations has acted Italy is still above the Italian average in terms towns, a larger share of the population in Central Italy as a brake on the development of the private of key economic indicators such as average Central Italy belongs to the lifeworld of sector in Rome. Only in economically weak disposable income or per capita GDP. While students than in other parts of the country. Calabria do a smaller proportion of people it is not thriving as well economically as the The lifeworlds of the work and family phase If northern Italy is the peninsula’s economic work in industry. In population terms, at least, north, it is still in a better position than the are dominated by people with middle heartland, then Central Italy with the regions Rome has experienced some recent growth, destitute south. However, Central Italy also has socioeconomic status. In the long term, Tuscany, Umbria, Marche, and Latium is following a decline in the 1990s. the lowest number of children per woman in however, the low birth rates mean that the its cultural heart. There are very few major the whole of Italy, so that even now the share number of young persons will decline while companies in this part of Italy, and in many The region of Tuscany to the north is larger of the population under the age of 35 is below the lifeworlds of mid-lifers will remain roughly areas people live mainly from agriculture and than Latium in terms of area but has a the already low Italian average. Nevertheless, stable. As in all Italian regions, the lifeworlds tourism. Central Italy, however, also includes smaller population. Tuscany has many forests the regions of Central Italy are currently of the retirement phase already today account the region of Latium with the capital, Rome. and protected areas and lives mainly from experiencing strong in-migration, so that the for around a third of the population over the With a population of 2.7 million, Rome is Italy’s producing wine and olives as well as from population there looks set to grow slightly in age of 14 and will continue to grow in the years largest city and the seat of almost all Italy’s tourism. One of the few companies in Tuscany the coming years. leading up to 2025. Central Italy will therefore major public administration offices as well that is of significance outside the region is need to come up with ideas for how it can as several sub-organisations of the United the fashion label Gucci, based in Florence. attract young, well-qualified migrants in the Nations, not to mention an enormous number But apart from this the city depends on future. of cultural treasures. The city’s numerous tourism, and in the summer the number of historic buildings and archaeological sites in tourists actually exceeds the local population. the city centre have actually hindered urban However, since the 1970s, when more than development because they make it almost 450,000 people lived here, the population has Education Work/Family Retirement impossible to erect modern buildings or an fallen to 370,000. Top- Top- urgently needed new underground system. Top- ranking ranking ranking By contrast, the satellite suburbs are in East of Latium and Tuscany lie Umbria and young house- mid-lifers persons wives some cases neglected and have high crime Marche, neither of which have any major cities. Middle- Middle- rates. Rome is not an industrial city but lives The interior region of Umbria with its capital, class class mainly from services, including many state- Perugia, is by far the economically weakest elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older owned companies, government and public region of Central Italy. Partly because it lacks Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking administration offices, tourism, and the a coastline fewer tourists come to Umbria pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers wholesale and retail trade. The city is also the than to other areas of Central Italy, and its persons wives Working- Working- alone centre of the Italian film industry. Apart from people work in agriculture, small industrial class class companies, and various service companies. elderly elderly men women The situation is similar in Marche, although Low Low its Adriatic coast does serve as a tourist income income attraction. men women Socioeconomic status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 2 % – 3 % + 19 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 91 Italy Southern Italy is relatively thinly populated, 600,000 inhabitants the second-largest city are more strongly represented than in other among other reasons because for many years in the Mezzogiorno. Palermo has the lowest Italian regions. This category accounts for a The South and the Islands southern Italians migrated to the north or per capita income of all Italian provincial third of the population in the work and family abroad, and the population is set to decline capitals. phase, and more than half of elderly people further in the future, for the average number of are working-class. When they retire southern The south of Italy is the country’s problem children per woman is low, as is in-migration. The difficult situation in southern Italy is Italians often have only a small income, and region. Its economic performance is only two- Although the population of the south is still reflected in the fact that this region has by this is likely to apply to the majority of future thirds of the Italian average, while disposal younger than average, in the future it will far the smallest share of people in the top- pensioners as well. Of the still numerous young income is almost a third below the national age more quickly than any other part of the ranking lifeworlds. Conversely, low-income population in southern Italy, the well educated average. What is more, the unemployment country. While the population segment under women and men with weak purchasing power in particular are likely to migrate to the north. rate is more than twice as high as in the the age of 19 is expected to shrink by 12 The decline in the group of 20- to 59-year-olds northern and central regions. Young people percent by 2025, the cohort of people 60 years will, for the time being at least, mainly affect are especially hard hit, and many women are and older is set to grow by more than a quarter. the younger population of working age. This not economically active at all – i.e., neither does not augur well for the economic and officially employed nor looking for work. The situation is still relatively good in demographic development of the region. The ratio of women in the workforce is only the region of Abruzzi and on the island of just over a third in some parts of the south, Sardinia. Geographically both belong more whereas the EU average is two thirds. There to Central Italy but are counted as part of the are several reasons for the poor economic Mezzogiorno for historic reasons. Abruzzi, situation of the Mezzogiorno, which covers which lies to the east of the capital region the areas from the Abruzzi to Campania, of Latium, has a much lower unemployment Calabria and the island of Sicily. The south rate than the areas further south. The Abruzzi Education Work/Family Retirement suffers from its location on the periphery, benefits from its position as a trading transit Top- Top- the poor infrastructure, and organised crime, point in the centre of the Italian peninsula. At Top- ranking ranking ranking which stifles economic growth. In many areas 1.05, Sardinia has the lowest average number young house- mid-lifers persons wives the population lives largely from agriculture of children per woman in the whole country, Middle- Middle- and tourism. There are only a few pockets yet its economic prospects are comparatively class class of industry, such as the semiconductor good, because a broad spectrum of sectors elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older manufacturer in Catania, Sicily, or the metal- has settled on the island, ranging from the Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking processing companies and car suppliers oil industry to the IT company Tiscali in pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers in Bari, capital of Puglia. These pockets of the regional capital, Cagliari. By contrast, persons wives Working- Working- alone industry are to some extent a consequence of the region of Campania on the mainland, class class the deliberate development policy from the though the most densely populated region of elderly elderly men women 1960s to the1980s. Highly-developed services Italy, is also economically the weakest. The Low Low have a relatively small role to play. regional capital, Naples, is Italy’s third-largest income income city. Official estimates put its population men women

at between three and four million. The city status Socioeconomic lives mainly from small businesses as well as from the black economy. The only city that is Phase of life worse off is the Sicilian capital, Palermo, with 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 12 % – 8 % + 26 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

92 Lifeworlds in Europe Population in 2011 38,200,037 “Creating history together” was the slogan of the European soccer championships hosted POLAND Projected population in 2025 37,612,069 jointly by Poland and Ukraine in summer Number of children per woman in 2011 1.38 2012 and attended by fans from all over Median age in 2011 38.0 Europe. If this was a resolution, then it was an GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 6,050 ambitious one, and yet it reflected the current mood in Poland. After the difficult years of Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 6.6 post-communist transformation, many local Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 26.7 economic experts now believe this land of 38 Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 48.4 million people situated on the Baltic is about to make a historic leap forward. People are already talking about the period from 2010 to 2020 as the “golden Polish decade” by the end of which Poland aims to be on a par with the countries of Western Europe in economic and social terms.

Poland’s accomplishments are certainly impressive. Between 1989, when it took its first steps towards democracy, and 2011, this once desperately poor country managed to almost double its GDP. Today Poland leads the transitional states in Europe, and even in pan-European terms it ranks well. Unlike many other EU states, the Polish economy came through the financial crisis virtually unscathed, being the only member of the EU whose GDP did not decline in the crisis year 2009 but instead grew by 1.6 percent. And in the years that followed, Poland was among the EU’s top performers with growth rates of around 4 percent.

Lifeworlds in Europe 93 There are many reasons for this success story. Aside from youth unemployment the 30 At most lower secondary school certificate First of all, the conservative Polish banking situation on the Polish labour market has Higher secondary school certificate system proved to be well nigh immune to the been fraught for many years now. The ratio Tertiary education financial crisis – and hence managed to reap of the economically active – i.e., the share of 25 the rewards of being “in arrears” as far as the population capable of employment who development was concerned. This benefited actually work or seek work – is low in Poland, banks in states whose financial markets at around five percentage points below the 20 had not been completely liberalised and EU average. The steady rise in the official therefore offered little scope for speculative unemployment rate since 2008 shows that transactions. And because Poland’s western only part of the Polish population is benefiting 15 neighbours were tangibly affected by the from the country’s uninterrupted economic crisis, demand for cheap products from Poland growth. And although overall GDP is steadily rose. Second, the Polish domestic market is increasing, it is still very low in per capita 10 very strong. Poland has a large segment of terms and is only 65 percent of the EU average. the population under 40, a group regarded as Hence the level of prosperity is scarcely higher particularly enthusiastic consumers who have than in Croatia, which has yet to join the EU. 5 a lot of catching up to do after the long years of socialism This is the driving force behind sales What is more, wealth is very unequally of goods like televisions and DVD players. distributed in Poland. Even if the Gini coefficient, an international indicator of social 0 Poland’s young population is both a blessing inequality, bucks the European trend and is Italy EU27 Spain France Poland and a curse. On the one hand, young people continuously falling in Poland, it is still above Austria are big consumers and thus fuel the Polish the EU average. The large regional differences Germany economy, giving it an additional boost with within the country are one reason for this: the Britain Great The Netherlands The their abundance of ideas and innovative power. economically successful west and the weak At the same time, the limited Polish labour east of the country are often worlds apart, as Percentage of persons over 18 at risk of poverty* Education protects against poverty market is having trouble absorbing the scores are the mostly booming cities and often poor and distribution of the population over 25 of people born from the early 1980s onwards. rural regions. More than one Pole in four is according to level of education, 2010 In all the countries studied, people with a low level of (Source: Eurostat) education – a lower secondary school certificate or As a consequence, youth unemployment has threatened by poverty and social exclusion. no secondary school certificate – are at greater risk of been well over the EU average for many years The Polish government is trying to counteract poverty. People with a tertiary education, by contrast, and today is still around 23 percent. Because this trend by making transfer payments and rarely have an income below the poverty threshold. they rate their prospects at home as dim, many allocating money from EU structural funds to Poorly educated people in Poland have a particularly highly-qualified Poles are leaving Poland, weaker areas. However, whether Poland will high poverty risk, while in the Netherlands the poverty ratios hardly differ according to level of education. In so that in the long term the country will lose be able to continue its successful path and Spain and Italy the variation is smaller than in Poland, important human capital. whether this ten-year period will indeed go but more than half of 25-year-olds have a low level of down in history as the “golden Polish decade” education there. remains uncertain in view of the country’s sharply rising levels of debt. The introduction of the euro, originally planned for 2011, has been postponed and is now not expected before 2015. * A person is regarded as at risk of poverty if they earn less than 60 percent of the median equivalent income.

94 Lifeworlds in Europe Poland in Europe the region’s docks have recently the cities of Gdan´sk, Gdynia, and Sopot on the is on average comparatively young, within the had to contend with empty order books. bay of Gdan´sk, to 19 percent in the sub-region work and family phase the young lifeworlds are The North Shipbuilding ceased entirely in Szczecin and around the city of Słupsk in the north-west. below average in size and are likely to shrink Gdynia in 2009. The Gdan´sk docks have further by 2025. The lifeworlds of mid-lifers, been completely restructured by a Ukrainian Altogether the northern region is home to 3.9 on the other hand, are expected to remain The northern Polish region comprises the investor, so that they now build luxury yachts million people. Of those aged 14 and older stable in numerical terms. Many of those of or provinces of Pomerania and instead of container ships. Only the repair almost a third can be classified as people in working age today will reach retirement age West Pomerania. A significant feature of docks remained immune to the sharp drop in the work and family phase with low income. over the next 15 to 20 years and thus ensure both is their northern Baltic coast. The sea orders during the economic crisis. Alongside And of elderly persons in the retirement phase that the number of people over the age of 60 is not only an important transport route for shipbuilding, the food industry, engineering, more than half are working class. Hence people will increase by half as much again by 2025 – a this part of Poland, but also attracts many and oil refinery are important sectors in with weak purchasing power are strongly sharper increase than anywhere else in Poland. tourists. Both these factors – tourism and the Pomerania. Other up-and-coming sectors represented in the north of Poland – as they Thus all lifeworlds of the retirement phase coastal location – present a viable alternative include IT, electronics, and biotechnology. are everywhere in the country. Nevertheless, will grow considerably. The majority of future to agriculture for the inhabitants of rural Foreign companies such as Dr Oetker or Intel the share of the top-ranking lifeworlds is still pensioners are not likely to have high incomes areas, so agriculture is not as important have opened branches here. above the national average here and is higher in old age. an employer in the north as it is in the rest only in Masovia, the region around the capital. of the country. Although the figure varies In West Pomerania the economic potential is Although the population of the northern region from one to another, only about 9 concentrated mainly in the areas around the or 10 percent of the working population most populous cities of Szczecin and Koszalin. of this region work in agriculture, whereas The harbour complex Szczecin-Swinoujscie the average for Poland as a whole is almost is one of the largest on the Baltic. As well as one person in five. Nevertheless, in terms of food processing, construction, and logistics, Education Work/Family Retirement per capita GDP, the north is less prosperous the timber industry also has an important Top- Top- than the Polish average, albeit still wealthier role to play here. A special feature of West Top- ranking ranking ranking than the underdeveloped voivodeships of Pomerania is its large number of small and young house- mid-lifers persons wives Lublin or Subcarpathia in the southeast of the medium-sized businesses, of which there Middle- Middle- country. Yet this area is in danger of losing are a higher number than in any other Polish class class its advantage, for in terms of growth in per province. Nevertheless, their innovation elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older capita GDP between 2007 and 2010 these two potential is small and they do not provide Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking northern provinces came near the bottom of many jobs. At the end of 2011, unemployment pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers the table for Poland as a whole. in West Pomerania was around 18 percent, persons wives Working- Working- alone the second-highest official unemployment class class The capital of the of Pomerania rate in all of Poland. Within this province elderly elderly men women is Gdan´sk – the home of the famous Gdan´sk only the city of Szczecin managed to have Low Low docks which were the cradle of the Polish lower unemployment levels than the national income income women democracy movement that started in 1980. average of 12.5 percent. Neighbouring men

Even today shipbuilding is still the leading Pomerania, on the other hand, was about status Socioeconomic sector in Pomerania. Yet like everywhere else average, albeit with large regional differences, ranging from 5 percent unemployment in the Phase of life sub-region of Trójmiasto, or Tricity, comprising 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 10 % – 10 % + 50 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 95 Poland One problem of the north-east region is few large farms with modern technology, The unspoilt scenery here raises hopes that the insufficient number of jobs. In Warmia- although some of the dairies are among the tourism may bring a surge in development in The North-East Masuria (also known as Ermeland-Masuria) largest and most modern in Poland. Although the near future. However, so far Podlaskie has on the border with the Russian exclave agriculture has a major role to play as an not been able to realise its full potential in this Kaliningrad one person in five is officially employer, it provides only 10 percent of gross respect and still records the fewest overnight With 59 inhabitants per square kilometre the jobless – the highest official unemployment value added, whereas the public sector makes stays in all of Poland. Travellers tend to focus north-east is Poland’s most thinly populated rate in all of Poland. Nevertheless, economic an above average contribution. Almost one on a few areas of the province. One of these region and is much less well developed than developments here do give some grounds for person in five in this area is employed in is Białystok, with 300,000 inhabitants by the west of the country. Although this region hope. Growth in per capita GDP between 2007 providing non-market services: in the public far the largest city in the province. By 2025 east of the Vistula is regarded as Poland’s and 2010 was above the Polish average, and administration, healthcare, or education. north-east Poland is expected to lose 3 percent “green lung” on account of the many lakes and foreign investors like Michelin and Philips have Barely one person in five works in industry or of its population. While the young cohorts forests and the low environmental pollution, opened production facilities here. Engineering construction – 7 percentage points less than are shrinking, as everywhere in Poland, the per capita GDP in the two provinces of this and the electronics industry are also important the Polish average. number of 40- to 59-year-olds and hence the region, Podlaskie and Warmia-Masuria, is employers, even if the production of food middle-aged lifeworlds will remain relatively only 45 percent of the EU average. Average and beverages is still the leading sector. Non- stable. All lifeworlds of the retirement phase, incomes are correspondingly low. Of the 2.6 industrial sectors are also starting to gain on the other hand, are expected to grow million people who live in the north-east, in significance. The University of Warmia- considerably – most of all those of the working somewhat more than a third are women and Masuria, founded in 1999, provides jobs for class. men with low income in the work and family 3,300 people and is hence one of the region’s phase, while another 16 percent are working- biggest employers. Over 30,000 students are class elderly women and men. More than half registered there, studying subjects ranging the population of the north-east belongs to from mathematics to education. Foreign Education Work/Family Retirement the group of consumers with low purchasing investors and a student population eager Top- Top- power. Those in the work and family and to bring about innovation indicate that the Top- ranking ranking ranking retirement phases belonging to the middle- region’s western province is on the right track young house- mid-lifers persons wives class lifeworlds do not make up even a quarter and may catch up with other Polish regions. Middle- Middle- of consumers – fewer than in any other Polish class class region. It forms a stark contrast to the neighbouring elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older eastern district of Podlaskie, located on the Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking border with Belarus and Lithuania. Per capita pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers GDP growth here was below average between persons wives Working- Working- alone 2007 and 2010. The official unemployment class class rate is high, and many people are employed in elderly elderly men women agriculture in low-paid jobs, which normally Low Low do not require high qualifications. Almost income income women one employee in three in Podlaskie earns men

their living in this sector, despite the fact that status Socioeconomic the conditions for agriculture are worse than anywhere else in Poland. The soil is poor and Phase of life generally suitable only for grazing. There are 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 16 % – 12 % + 45 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

96 Lifeworlds in Europe Poland This means that prosperity is very unevenly themselves as good investment locations, over-60-year-olds will grow considerably by distributed – even if average incomes and GDP above all for industrial production. In 2025, more than in most of the country’s other The West are relatively high by Polish standards. -Pomerania this is concentrated in the regions. The majority of future pensioners chemicals, machinery, and food sectors as well today belong to the low-income lifeworlds With a 28 percent share of the region’s as in the manufacture of high-tech products. with low purchasing power, and are therefore Half way between Warsaw and Berlin lies economy, industry has a big role to play in unlikely to have very high incomes when they the city of Poznan, the provincial capital of the creation of value added. Among the most Around half of the population over the age of retire. Within the work and family phase the , which belongs to west Poland. important industrial sectors are car production 14 are classified as low-income women and age structure is shifting, too. The younger Since the Cold War, Poznan and Hanover, the and logistics. Agriculture, too, is a significant men or working-class elderly women and lifeworlds are already shrinking considerably capital of the German state of Lower Saxony, economic factor in Greater Poland. It generates men. Only just over one person in four belongs in numerical terms. Thus the lifeworlds of have been twinned. For this reason several more than 5 percent of regional gross added to the middle-class lifeworlds. The region’s top- and mid-ranking young persons are companies based in Lower Saxony, such as value – around two percentage points more population is on average rather young, but also expected to become smaller, even if the Volkswagen, Bahlsen, and Nordzucker, have than the Polish average – and has one of the currently comparatively small group of favourable economic trend continues in parts opened branches in Poznan, which is home to the country’s highest productivity scores. of the region. The lifeworlds of mid-lifers, on around half a million people. Greater Poland With a share of 45 percent, an unusually the other hand, look set to grow slightly. is regarded as an excellent place to invest high proportion of the roughly 3.4 million on account of its favourable location and inhabitants of Greater Poland live in the infrastructure: key road transit routes between countryside. Eastern and Western Europe run across this province, and there are also river shipping The proportion is lower in Kuyavia-Pomerania routes and a good railway network as well as in the east of the west Polish region. The an international airport. As a result Greater province has a population of 2.1 million and Education Work/Family Retirement Poland has experienced an economic upturn is economically considerably worse off than Top- Top- in recent years. Between 2007 and 2010 it Greater Poland. Even if growth in recent years Top- ranking ranking ranking recorded the fourth highest per capita GDP has been higher than other areas of Poland, per young house- mid-lifers persons wives growth of any Polish province. capita GDP is still below the national average. Middle- Middle- There has been little investment because class class The official unemployment rate is the lowest the economic infrastructure is considered elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older in all of Poland, albeit with considerable the worst in the country. A lack of research Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking regional differences. The city of Poznan, with institutions, special economic zones, and pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers a population of around 552,000, is home trade fairs makes the region unattractive for persons wives Working- Working- alone to roughly one person in six in the province investors. Nevertheless, in comparison with class class and has an unemployment rate of only 4 other areas, it does offer a large sales market elderly elderly men women percent. Yet in other parts of the province as well as a skilled cheap workforce. Currently, Low Low the rate is well above the Polish average. however, the official unemployment rate is income income women Within the OECD there was scarcely a region around 17 percent, considerably above the men

in 2008 where the differences in terms of per Polish average. Only in the urban centres of status Socioeconomic capita GDP were as big as in Greater Poland. Bydgoszcz and Torun is it much lower than this, no doubt among other reasons because Phase of life these cities have managed to position 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 11 % – 9 % + 47 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 97 Poland Above all, the rapid development of the capital Even if central Poland can boast good Low-income women and men are more weakly city has ensured that the top-ranking lifeworlds economic indicators, the region is not represented in this part of the country than Central Poland are better represented in central Poland than without its problems. Although the official in Poland overall. Yet they still account for anywhere else in the country. Altogether a unemployment rate at around 10 percent is almost a third of all consumers in the central third of the population over the age of 14 slightly below the national average, in many region. Unlike most other regions, central The Polish capital Warsaw is the political, belongs to the middle-class lifeworlds, whose areas it is far more than this. Prosperity is Poland is expected to grow by almost 130,000 economic, and cultural heart of the central members are equally divided between young, very unevenly distributed, so that the wealth inhabitants by 2025. This growth will, Polish region. With 1.72 million inhabitants middle-aged, and older cohorts. The well- differences within the region are among the however, only take place in the older cohorts. Warsaw is the ninth largest city in the represented lifeworld of mid-ranking young highest in the OECD in terms of per capita GDP. All lifeworlds of the retirement phase are European Union, and by far the largest city persons, to which one person in ten belongs, is expected to grow considerably, but within the in Poland. A third of the region’s 5.2 million a special feature of this region, and promises work and family phase, too, the middle-aged people live here. While Warsaw is not regarded rosy prospects for the future, since this lifeworlds will also grow. Through these shifts as a pretty city, it is economically successful lifeworld looks set to remain stable as a strong in the age structure not only will the number and since the fall of communism has become group of consumers for some time to come. of low-income women and men decline, but an important financial centre in Eastern the young lifeworlds with greater purchasing Europe. The capital is the economic engine In Warsaw an above average number of people power may become smaller as well, even if the of the entire region: half of all companies work in the services sector, while industry economic situation remains favourable. registered in central Poland are based in provides only a few jobs. In the smaller cities Warsaw, and the region attracts more foreign of the region, such as Radom, Ostrołeka, investors than anywhere else in Poland. Siedlce, and Płock, employees in the industrial sector and construction still account for a third Warsaw’s official unemployment rate of around of the working population. Yet despite the Education Work/Family Retirement 4 percent is well below the Polish average. advanced economic development of central Top- Top- The citizens of Warsaw earn almost twice as Poland as a whole, agriculture still generates Top- ranking ranking ranking much as the national average and are therefore around 3 percent of the region’s value added, young house- mid-lifers persons wives bigger consumers than the population in other a surprisingly high proportion. This is where Middle- Middle- parts of the country. Central Poland is the only Poland’s largest agricultural lands are located, class class region in the country with a level of prosperity so that in some areas around half of the elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older anywhere approaching the European average. working population is employed in agriculture Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking Per capita GDP is 97 percent of the EU average, whereas in other areas of the country it is pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers while in the second-best Polish province of scarcely more than a third. Masovia is the most persons wives Working- Working- alone Lower it is only 66 percent. Central important Polish producer of fruit, vegetables, class class Poland contributes a fifth of national GDP, cereals, and milk, as well as beef and pork. elderly elderly men women more than any other region, and the region’s Low Low success story is continuing despite already income income having attained a high level. Between 2007 men women

and 2010 per capita GDP continued to grow at status Socioeconomic a rate slightly above the Polish average. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 5 % – 6 % + 34 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

98 Lifeworlds in Europe Poland in the retirement phase. Hence the group of that had been the city’s only industry lost their role, the pharmaceuticals and building material people with low purchasing power is slightly markets. Many companies had to close and industries are flourishing. A coal-fired power Łódz´ Region smaller than the Polish average, whereas that their employees found themselves out on the station in the province of Piotrków-Bełchatów, belonging to middle-class lifeworlds is slightly street. In 1997 Łódz´ was declared a special the most important industrial location besides larger. How the consumer structure develops in economic zone. This succeeded in attracting Łódz´, supplies 20 percent of the country’s The region in the geographical centre of the the future will depend on the cohort of school more than a hundred companies from a domestically generated electricity. country, consisting exclusively of the province pupils, whose share of the population over 14 broad range of sectors, covering everything Łódz´, is intersected by all the country’s is, at 11 percent, rather large. If the province from logistics to manufacturers of household By comparison with the rest of the country important transportation routes. The region continues along its present path the latter may goods. Hence companies like Dell, Fujitsu, the group of over-60-year-olds will grow benefits from this fact and is making an effort well find good career prospects here. Siemens, and Bosch today have factories in rather slowly up to 2025, but their share of to maintain a well-functioning transport the region and are important employers. And the population is already relatively high today. network. Currently, roads and railways are Like the rest of the country, the Łódz´ even apart from the , the Although all younger cohorts are shrinking being expanded and modernised. While today province has been through a phase of very economic structure of the district has changed numerically, the lifeworlds of mid- and top- it still takes two hours to travel from Łódz´ to dynamic development. In 2005 the official considerably. Besides the textiles and clothing ranking mid-lifers are likely to remain stable, Warsaw by train, there are plans to cut the unemployment rate was still well over 18 industry that continue to play an important for in recent years a comparatively large group journey time to 30 minutes by 2020. It is percent and thus slightly above the Polish of young consumers with strong purchasing hoped that people working in Warsaw will then average at that time. Today, only about 10 power has emerged. move to this area and commute from Łódz´ to percent of the population are registered as the capital. unemployed, which is roughly equivalent to the national average. At more than 62 percent, For the roughly 2.6 million inhabitants of the ratio of the economically active –, i.e., that Łódz´ province agriculture and industry are segment of the population capable of gainful Education Work/Family Retirement the two most important economic sectors. employment who actually work – is one of the Top- Top- The region contains 50 percent of Poland’s highest in the country. And although wages Top- ranking ranking ranking agricultural land and almost one person in five and salaries are still low, the inhabitants young house- mid-lifers persons wives is employed in agriculture – two percentage of Łódz´ can be optimistic about the future. Middle- Middle- points more than the Polish average. But Between 2007 and 2010, per capita GDP grew class class industry and construction also have an more than in almost any other Polish region. elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older important role to play, accounting for almost Łódz´ started from a low baseline, however, Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking a third of employees. The services sector, so this value is still slightly under the Polish pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers by contrast, is small. The distribution of average, but if things continue to develop as persons wives Working- Working- alone employees over sectors is also reflected in the they have so far, the province could soon catch class class distribution of the lifeworlds. Whereas only a up. elderly elderly men women few people belong to top-ranking lifeworlds, Low Low the low-income women and men are the One reason for the positive development income income largest consumer group, making up almost is the economic progress in the provincial men women

a third. In addition to these people with low capital, Łódz´, where one third of the region’s status Socioeconomic incomes there are around 14 percent who inhabitants live. In the 1990s the “Manchester belong to the group of working-class lifeworlds of Poland”, as it has been called, was still Phase of life facing economic ruin, for when socialism came 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older to an end in Europe the many textiles factories – 17% – 16 % + 30 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 99 Poland Microsoft all have branches there. Wrocław is The Polish south-west thus consists of two however, also a strong segment of mid-ranking also an important educational centre, which very different provinces, one of which comes young persons, who make up almost 9 percent The South-West means that the region has many well-qualified near the bottom of the table in nationwide of the population over the age of 14. Thus the workers at its disposal. Wałbrzych, which is comparison, while the other seems to be lifeworld of mid-ranking mid-lifers looks set to about an hour away from Wrocław, is known advancing by leaps and bounds. Overall, the continue growing while the middle class as a The Polish south-west has benefited from its for its car industry driven by investors like lifeworlds with low income or that are working whole will remain stable, even if the age group geographical position, for many important Toyota, the tyre manufacturer Metzeler, and class and hence have low purchasing power of 20- to- 59-year olds shrinks numerically. European road, rail, and shipping routes the Japanese car components supplier Takata. dominate the middle and older phases of life This applies likewise to the lifeworld of top- as well as air routes between Western and Wałbrzych is also known as the capital of and embrace half the population. There is, ranking mid-lifers, which today is still very Eastern Europe run along Poland’s border Polish IT. Despite its extensive high-tech small. All younger lifeworlds, by contrast, will with Germany and the Czech Republic. Overall industry, ’s tradition as a coal probably become smaller because of the aging 3.9 million people live in this part of Poland. mining centre continues to play a major role. of the population, while those of the retirement Somewhat more than a million of them live The Polish publically traded company KGHM, phase will grow markedly. in Lubusz in the north, Poland’s smallest one of the world’s largest copper and silver province in terms of population. The remaining producers, has its headquarters here, and is a 2.9 million live in the southern province of major employer in the area. Lower Silesia on the Neisse River, which is one of Poland’s most successful provinces While one of Poland’s south-western provinces economically speaking. Only 30 percent of seems to be on the road to success, the other its population live rurally – 10 percent below is having major problems keeping up: Lubusz, the figure for Poland as a whole – where they half of which is covered by forest, is dominated often have a lower level of education and not by IT and car manufacturing but by timber Education Work/Family Retirement work in jobs with lower productivity than and paper production. Modern industries are Top- Top- the urban population. The Lower Silesians to be found mainly in the small urban centres Top- ranking ranking ranking benefit from the high per capita GDP in this of Gorzów Wielkopolski and Zielona Góra, young house- mid-lifers persons wives area, which is the second-highest in the with around 120,000 inhabitants each. The Middle- Middle- country. This brings the population incomes companies in Lubusz cover a broad range of class class that are above average. Despite its small sectors from the electronics and chemical elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older population this area makes a comparatively industries to food processing, textiles, and Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking large contribution – 8 percent – to total building materials. In addition, Lubusz is home pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers Polish GDP. This is mainly because the district to several publishing houses. Altogether a third persons wives Working- Working- alone has several attractive economic locations, of the province’s inhabitants are employed class class of which Wrocław –Poland’s fourth largest in industry and construction, far more than elderly elderly men women city with 633,000 inhabitants – is one of the Polish average. But even if the economy Low Low the most investment-friendly places in the is highly diversified, the economic situation income income whole country. International corporations like in the province of Lubusz is anything but men women

DHL, Hewlett-Packard, Google, Siemens, and satisfactory. The official unemployment rate is status Socioeconomic above average, while per capita GDP persists at a level below the Polish average. Incomes Phase of life are hence also low. 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 14 % – 14 % + 45 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

100 Lifeworlds in Europe Poland vehicle manufacturing remain central for the Economic development in , however, lags This is also evident in the consumer structure Silesian economy. Textiles and chemicals behind that of other Polish provinces. Although of southern Poland. Working-class elderly The South also play an important role. Thanks to its ski the official unemployment rate is actually women and men here make up 20 percent of resorts the south has a flourishing tourist slightly above the Polish average, per capita the population over the age of 14, an unusually industry. Currently, Silesia is still one of GDP is almost 20 percent below it. Disposable large group. Furthermore, the share of low- What the Ruhr region once was for Germany is Poland’s economically advanced regions, and incomes are correspondingly low – the lowest income women and men is among the highest for Poland the province of Silesia in the eastern disposable income is higher only in Masovia in all of Poland in fact. In order to escape the in Poland. All lifeworlds of the education and part of the southern region. Even today, coal around the capital, Warsaw. Per capita GDP dire economic situation, many members of the the work and family phase are likely to decline mining and steel production continue to be here is also above the Polish average. Other German minority here decided after the fall of in the future – only the lifeworld of mid-ranking important pillars of the economy here. In the regions are catching up, however, and per communism to apply for German citizenship mid-lifers looks set to remain largely stable, region bordering on the Czech Republic and capita GDP growth in Silesia between 2007 in order to seek work in Germany. Around since the large young middle class will soon Slovakia, industry contributes a third of gross and 2010 was not as strong as in many other 70,000 to 90,000 people from the district of grow into this phase. value added and together with construction parts of the country. Opole still work abroad today. Many of them employs over a third of the regional workforce are seasonal migrants or commuters, meaning – the highest value in the whole of Poland GDP growth in the province of Opole was even that they have not left the region for good, but lower. In terms of both area and population it is estimated that around 11 percent have Although in terms of area this is one of Opole is the much smaller half of the Polish emigrated permanently. Those who remain the smaller regions of Poland, in terms south and is home to about one million behind are often older people. of population Silesia, with 4.6 million people. Unlike Silesia, which is dominated inhabitants, is the second-largest province by cities, half of the territory of Opole is used after Masovia. The majority of Silesians as agricultural land, because it is very fertile. live in big cities with more than 100,000 Moreover, almost half the population lives in Education Work/Family Retirement inhabitants, of which there are 12 in Silesia. villages and small settlements – a very high Top- Top- The largest of them is the capital, Katowice, percentage. Agriculture employs 16 percent Top- ranking ranking ranking with just over 300,000 inhabitants. This of the workforce in the province, whereas in young house- mid-lifers persons wives traditional coal mining province is now putting neighbouring Silesia it is ten percentage points Middle- Middle- its hopes in economic diversification and fewer. Nevertheless, industry and construction class class is investing in research as well as in IT and are an important labour market factor in Opole, elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older green technologies. Yet although the other too. A third of the workforce is employed in Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking cities of the region are gradually turning away these sectors and generates more than 35 pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers from traditional industries, coal and steel percent of regional gross value added. Thanks persons wives Working- Working- alone and the associated energy sector as well as to local reserves of lime, the cement industry class class is flourishing, but other sectors, like food elderly elderly men women processing, car production and chemicals, are Low Low important, too. income income men women Socioeconomic status Socioeconomic

Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 15 % – 15 % + 40 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 101 Poland Even if the overall picture is rather dismal, the Cracow attracts many tourists and is the is part of the middle-class lifeworlds, but only few urban centres are still the local beacons social and economic centre of . very few belong to the top-ranking lifeworlds The South-East of hope. Rzeszów, for example, the capital of The province of S´wietokrzyskie has also with strong purchasing power. By Polish Subcarpathia, is home to almost all of Poland’s developed at a similarly rapid pace in recent standards the group of under 20-year-olds is flourishing aviation industry. Aeroplane years, although not all inhabitants have yet unusually large. This is one reason why the With 8.8 million inhabitants the Polish south- components and fixtures are produced here benefited from the boom, so that the official population of the south-east is likely to remain east is Poland’s largest region in terms of alongside light aircraft and helicopters. In unemployment rate is well over the Polish numerically more or less stable until 2025, population. It consists of four provinces. this city of 178,000 people, the official average. unlike many other areas of Poland. The age The two more westerly ones, Lesser Poland unemployment ratio lies at only 8 percent group between 20 and 59, which is important and S´wietokrzyskie, have scored economic and hence far below the Polish average. The With a share of just under a third, low-income for the economy, will shrink by 2025, but not successes in recent years. The eastern situation is similar in the city of Lublin, capital men and women make up the largest group of as much as in many other Polish regions. The provinces of Lublin and Subcarpathia, on of the province of the same name. This city consumers in the south-east region. More than decline will affect mainly the younger cohorts. the other hand, which account for almost of 348,000 inhabitants is the largest east of one person in five in the work and family phase The middle-aged lifeworlds, on the other hand, half the region’s population, come bottom the Vistula and serves as a magnet for young are expected to remain more or less the same economically in nationwide terms. This is people from all over Poland who come here to size over the coming 15 years, while those of reflected, for example, in the indicator per study. The city is dominated by students, who the retirement phase will grow markedly. capita GDP, which in these two problem make up almost a third of the population and districts is just over 40 percent of the EU raise hopes of a viable future. Yet despite these average. Low productivity also means that isolated beacons of hope, these two provinces people here have little disposable income, in are increasingly falling behind the rest of the fact less than anywhere else in Poland. Most country. Thus Lublin and Subcarpathia showed of the inhabitants of the two provinces live in under-average growth in what was already Education Work/Family Retirement the countryside, and around a third of them low per capita GDP between 2007 and 2010. Top- Top- work in agriculture, if indeed they find work Subcarpathia just managed to scrape into Top- ranking ranking ranking at all, for unemployment is a major problem fourth place in a nationwide comparison. young house- mid-lifers persons wives in this part of the south-east. In particular Middle- Middle- in Subcarpathia, near Slovakia and Ukraine, The situation is completely different in the two class class many people are jobless. This district has the neighbouring provinces to the west, Lesser elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older fourth highest official unemployment rate in Poland and S´wietokrzyskie, which show the Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking Poland. most dynamic economic development in all pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers of Poland. Both are well ahead of Lublin and persons wives Working- Working- alone Subcarpathia in terms of per capita GDP and class class disposable income. Thus the province of elderly elderly men women Lesser Poland is the only area in the south-east Low Low with an official unemployment rate below income income the Polish average. This is mainly because men women

of its capital, Cracow, where unemployment status Socioeconomic is only 5 percent. The old town of this city of 756,000 inhabitants has been declared a Phase of life World Cultural Heritage Site by UNESCO and 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older is home to Europe’s second-oldest university. – 16 % – 9 % + 37 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

102 Lifeworlds in Europe Population in 2011 142,865,433 In December 2011, Pascal Lamy, director- general of the World Trade Organisation RUSSIA Projected population in 2025 140,642,792 (WTO), ceremoniously presented the Russian Number of children per woman in 2009 1.56 negotiator Maxim Medvedkov with a black Median age in 2011 38.0 T-shirt printed with the words: “Welcome to GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 5,001 the WTO . . . finally!” There was certainly cause to celebrate, for Russia was at last about to Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 13.2 become a member of the global organisation Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 27.3 following 18 years of negotiations. In return for Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 45.0 its promise to dismantle trade barriers, Russia, with its population of 143 million, hoped to attract foreign investment. Prior to that, many investors had been slow to commit money to Russia, deterred by the tricky legal and technical parameters. In 2011 Russia managed no better than 120th place out of a total of 183 countries in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index – one of the lowest positions of all the former communist states of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In few countries does it take longer for a company to get access to electricity, and Russia is considered one of the most obstructive countries in the world when it comes to obtaining building permits or gaining access to foreign trading partners.

Lifeworlds in Europe 103 Nevertheless, since the end of the rouble according to estimates one quarter to one 10 crisis in 1999, Russia has also scored some third of all employment takes place within the 8 major successes. Between 1999 and 2008, black economy. In other words, many people of GDP grew by a total of 70 percent, and the working age are employed but do not pay taxes 6 average incomes grew by a factor of eight in – nor do they have any social security. 4 the same period. Although in 2009, during the worldwide financial crisis, GDP plummeted Poverty continues to be a major problem in 2 to minus 7.8 percent, it has since recovered Russia and threatens roughly one person in 0 Russia and Russia was able to report positive growth two. Particularly in rural areas incomes and Poland of 4.3 percent in both 2010 and 2011. The savings are often low. Since the demise of the – 2 Spain unemployment rate is also returning to the Soviet Union the rich have become ever richer, Great Britain – 4 Austria pre-crisis level. Russia was able to overcome while lower income groups have less and less. France – 6 the crisis quickly thanks mainly to the many A quarter of the population of Russia is now The Netherlands Italy programmes launched by the state to stabilise considered to belong to the underclass, and – 8 the Russian economy. However, the crisis also between 20 and 30 percent are classified Germany led to a halving of state financial reserves as having low incomes. One household in – 10 accumulated primarily from the sale of raw ten lacks basic provisions such as access to 200420052006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 materials. Experts believe that were Russia to drinking water or healthcare. The state has undergo a second crisis of the same order of yet to succeed in establishing a proper social Percentage of real GDP growth over the previous year Russia’s economy shows the strongest magnitude as 2009, this would empty state security system. Between 2009 and 2011, (estimates for 2012; in the case of Spain for 2011 and growth coffers. the share of the population unable to afford 2012) (Source: IMF) adequate food fell, yet in a survey conducted Of all the countries considered here, Russia had the highest GDP growth rates from the mid-2000s until For the time being, then, the Russian economy by the opinion research institute Levada 2008. In 2009 it experienced the deepest recession is in comparatively good shape again, but this Centre, half the respondents said they were Not only is there a steadily rising number of but also showed the strongest recovery the following has made little difference to the majority of the unable to afford consumer durables. In 2009 people in Russia who cannot afford basic year. In Poland, too, GDP is growing more than in the population. Although this multi-ethnic state this figure was around ten percentage points provision, the number of consumers is also older EU countries, and there the economy did not even is overall considered to be highly developed, lower. falling. According to population prognoses, shrink in the crisis year 2009. In terms of per capita economic performance, however, both Russia and there are major differences between the Russia will lose 25 million inhabitants by Poland trail behind the more westerly states. In the various regions and population groups. 2050 – almost a fifth of its current population. Netherlands and Austria, the two countries with the Unemployment, for example, is almost twice Because Russian society is aging, a declining strongest economies of those surveyed here, per capita as high in rural areas as it is in the cities. working population will be supporting an GDP in 2011 was around two and a half times that of Whereas the unemployment rate in Moscow ever larger group of pensioners. Thus pension Russia and double that of Poland. and St Petersburg is negligible, in other funds that are already empty will face further regions it has reached double-digit figures major costs. At the same time, Russian and young people between the ages of 15 and economic power is set to wane as a result of 25 are particularly badly affected. The figures labour shortages. The country with the largest should be treated with caution, however, since territory in the world thus faces enormous challenges.

104 Lifeworlds in Europe Russia Alongside its economic woes, Central Russia success story began with the Volkswagen lifeworlds of mid-ranking young persons also faces major demographic problems: factory, which opened its doors in 2007, and mid-lifers give grounds for optimism. Central Russia women have few children, so society in these and a whole series of other international Almost one person in four – and hence well regions is aging faster than in the rest of the corporations followed in its wake. All in all, above the Russian average – belongs to one country. In addition, people in Central Russia industrial cities like , , or of these categories. If they stay in the area, “Modernisation” was the keyword in a die earlier than anywhere else in the country. Vladimir have the potential to help bring about they will consume a lot in the years to come government campaign launched by then Often it is men below retirement age who die an economic upswing in Central Russia as a and may thus help to fuel the local economy. Russian President Dmitrii Medvedev in prematurely, in some cases on account of their whole. Demographic trends indicate that all lifeworlds 2009 to reform the private sector, cautiously high alcohol consumption. encompassing retired people are likely to privatise state enterprises, and completely Currently, however, one person in three is grow considerably by 2025. The decline in the renew the manufacturing sector. A good Yet for all the problems, there are some classified in the group of low-income women share of 20- to 59-year-olds in the population example is the state-owned, publically traded success stories too. One of them is the mining and men, while one person in ten is an elderly will take place mainly in the cohorts under company Rusnano. Founded in 2011 as part city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border. member of the working class. Almost 45 the age of 40. The lifeworlds of middle-aged of the modernisation plans, Rusnano invests Belgorod Oblast, the local administrative percent of the inhabitants thus count as the people with more purchasing power are thus in research and development projects all over unit, is one of Russia’s biggest exporters of weakest consumers. The comparatively large likely to remain stable or – should economic the country as well as in production locations metal products like iron ore or steel. Although developments be positive – even to grow. specialising in nanotechnology. These include the region’s dependence on exports makes the city of Vladimir in the Central Federal it vulnerable to economic downturns, its District (referred to henceforth as Central 1.5 million inhabitants, who live beside the Russia) some 200 km from Moscow with world’s largest iron ore basin, are relatively 340,000 inhabitants, where investment in this prosperous in comparison with neighbouring advanced technology aims to bring about long- areas. Belgorod is ranked in sixth place in the Education Work/Family Retirement term economic advancement. HDI – well ahead of . Although Top- Top- incomes in Belgorod are the highest in all of Top- ranking ranking ranking A thriving economy has so far eluded this Russia, in terms of development Belgorod young house- mid-lifers persons wives region, which is home to 27 million people. Oblast is scarcely above the Russian average. Middle- Middle- Indeed, many areas of Central Russia have so class class far failed to establish competitive economies Besides Belgorod a number of other areas elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older since the end of the Soviet era. Instead, they of Central Russia are showing promise. One Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking continue to depend mainly on agriculture, particular highlight is the small city of Kaluga, pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers whose share of GDP is above the Russian which between 2006 and 2010 attracted persons wives Working- Working- alone average in nearly all areas of Central Russia. 3.4 billion euros in foreign investment – the class class The education, health, and prosperity statistics highest in all of Russia. What is more, in 2010 elderly elderly men women are alarming in some places, with one in three industry in Kaluga Oblast exhibited the highest Low Low of Central Russia’s 16 administrative entities growth of anywhere in Russia. The area’s income income ranked in the bottom quarter of the Human men women

Development Index (HDI) of 80 Russian status Socioeconomic regions. Living conditions for the inhabitants of large swathes of Central Russia are thus on a Phase of life par with the poor conditions in conflict regions 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older like Ingushetia or Chechnya. + 2 % – 15 % + 21 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 105 Russia No wonder, for nowhere else in Russia is Half of all Muscovites have higher education a comparatively high proportion of people the level of development as high as it is in and thus contribute a great deal to the city’s of working age. By 2025, however, the age The City of Moscow Moscow. Almost all Russia’s major companies economic performance. Nowhere else in structure will shift upwards considerably, have their headquarters in Moscow, the city Russia is the proportion of lifeworlds of top- with the number of people aged 60 and offers its inhabitants many highly paid jobs, ranking young persons and mid-lifers – 10 older probably rising by more than a third. Moscow is growing, and the city government and the handsome tax revenues this yields percent each – as high as in the pulsating The lifeworlds encompassing middle-aged plans to expand the territory the Russian allow the city administration to provide an capital. Moscow also has a large group of or older members of the workforce will capital occupies today by 1,460 km2, making excellent quality of life. Monthly incomes in young and middle-aged persons belonging to probably also grow slightly, while the number it an area as large as Hamburg and Berlin Moscow are way above the Russian average, the mid-ranking lifeworlds, which encompass of under 40-year-olds will decline sharply – a combined. This would entail Moscow at least but they are also very unequally distributed. around 24 percent of the population over the consequence of the sudden drop in the birth doubling in size in terms of area. Vladimir This is revealed by the Gini coefficient, which age of 14. In addition, typically for the area rate following the demise of the Soviet Union. Ressin, the city’s deputy major, explained that expresses income distribution between around a major city, Moscow’s population has Even if the economy continues to flourish, there simply wasn’t enough space for new different sectors of the population in terms of a the lifeworlds of young people with strong roads, shops, and housing. value between 0 and 1. A high Gini coefficient purchasing power will become smaller, as will means that a large proportion of the income those of low-income women and men. In fact Moscow is one of the few areas of goes to the richest sector of the population. Russia where the population has been growing In Moscow this value was 0.505 in 2010 steadily in recent decades. Between 1989 and hence way above the national average and 2010 the city’s population increased by of 0.421. Other Russian cities also suffer 2.6 million to 11.5 million, making the city from social inequality, but such extremes as on the Moskva River the largest in Europe. in Moscow are to be found only in Brazilian, The population increase can be accounted Argentine, or Nigerian cities. Education Work/Family Retirement for primarily by migration to the city, which Top- Top- not only swells the city’s population but also Nevertheless, with an unemployment rate of Top- ranking ranking ranking ensures a steady stream of new people to only 1.7 percent and a flourishing economy young house- mid-lifers join the workforce. For the city’s economy to persons wives that generates more than a fifth of total Middle- Middle- continue to boom it needs these migrants, Russian GDP, Moscow is a very attractive class class because the fertility rate in Moscow is location. The sector primarily responsible for elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older comparatively low. The metropolitan area economic success is services, which in 2009 Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking around the Kremlin is certainly attractive, not was responsible for almost half the city’s GDP pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers only for migrants from other parts of Russia and employed just under 62 percent of all persons wives Working- Working- alone but also for foreign immigrants. Of the total those in work. The wholesale and retail sectors class class of 162,000 people in Russia who left their came in second place, employing one person elderly elderly men women home region in 2009, the majority went to in four and accounting for around a third of Low Low Moscow. Moreover, Moscow has more foreign Moscow’s GDP. income income immigrants than almost any other city in men women

Europe, occupying third place behind London status Socioeconomic and Paris in terms of the number of inhabitants born abroad. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 3 % – 21 % + 37 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

106 Lifeworlds in Europe Russia production facilities there. What is more, by almost 8 percent between 2008 and 2009, the Russian average – on account of the weak St Petersburg and the surrounding oblast while Vologda experienced a decline of almost economic performance of the rural areas. North-West Russia have become a magnet for direct foreign 28 percent. What is more, 17 percent of the Because average life expectancy is low here, investment. Only Archangelsk Oblast, in the population has an income below the legally the lifeworlds of people in retirement are far north on the White Sea, has attracted a determined subsistence level – the highest rather weakly represented, although they The North-Western has 13.6 comparable level of investment. Economic proportion in Russia. With the exception of St are likely to grow considerably in the future. million inhabitants and is thus about four success brings people from all over Russia and Petersburg, this figure runs to double digits Within the lifeworlds in the work and family and a half times as big as Germany. As the from abroad to the North-West. Thus between throughout the North-West. phases of life the age structure will shift in the direct neighbour of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, 2007 and 2009, St Petersburg attracted future with the proportion of young people Lithuania, and Finland, North-West Russia has almost as many migrants as Moscow. This Although the economic situation in St and hence young lifeworlds shrinking and borders with several EU states. The far north influx is important for the city, for even today Petersburg and gives the lifeworlds of middle-aged persons most of the region borders on the Baltic, Barents, there is already a shortage of skilled labour. grounds for optimism, the distribution of probably remaining fairly stable until 2025. If and White Sea. The territory is covered in lifeworlds among the population of the North- rural areas develop in a positive direction the huge forests, and 84 percent of its population Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave cut off from West as a whole corresponds roughly with lifeworlds of top- and mid-ranking mid-lifers live in cities. Altogether this federal district the rest of Russia and sandwiched between may even grow slightly. produces more than 10 percent of Russian GDP Lithuania and Poland, also suffers from a – mainly in St Petersburg and the surrounding shortage of skilled workers. Its economic Leningrad Oblast, where more than half of the success is based above all on the tax breaks population of North-West Russia live. At first for investors that it offers – however these are glance the economy in this region looks rosy. soon set to come to an end. How Kaliningrad The prosperity indicator of per capita GDP is will develop after that is difficult to predict. well over the national average. But this is due The most northerly region of North-West Education Work/Family Retirement almost entirely to the prosperous city of St Russia, , has lost almost a third of Top- Top- Petersburg and the surrounding oblast. Per its population since 1989 – mainly through Top- ranking ranking ranking capita GDP in half of the in North-West out-migration – even though it is now doing young house- mid-lifers persons wives Russia is actually below the national average. comparatively well economically, and Middle- Middle- incomes are well above the average for the class class After Moscow, St Petersburg is regarded as North-West. The port of Murmansk, which elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older Russia’s second economic centre. Productivity is frost-free all year round, is an important Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking in the city rose between 2000 and 2010 by location for exports; in addition, the area pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers around 10 percent a year. Located on the Gulf also possesses mineral resources which persons wives Working- Working- alone of Finland, it was already a leading centre it mines and processes. This can also be a class class for shipbuilding, energy technology, and disadvantage, however. Because Murmansk’s elderly elderly men women engineering in the Soviet era, and since then economic performance, which accounts for Low Low several international concerns have opened as much as 5 percent of North-West Russian income income women GDP, is based on selling raw materials, it is men

particularly vulnerable to dips in the economic status Socioeconomic cycle. In fact, the whole of North-West Russia is economically dependent on raw materials Phase of life markets. Komi and Karelia produce timber, and 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older Vologda makes steel. In Karelia GDP declined + 5 % – 16 % + 24 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 107 Russia at 17 percent, almost ten percentage points weak purchasing power. Low-income men higher than the national average. The Islamic make up 20 percent of the population in the South Russia and the North Caucasus fundamentalism that is already prevalent region and are hence by far the largest single in the region has thus been able to expand consumer group. Across all life phases fewer its influence, exploiting the susceptibility of than one person in four is classified as middle- In the south of the country lie the stable, Two of southern Russia’s cities – Volgograd the many young people and those lacking class – the lowest value of all the Russian forward-looking Southern Federal District and Rostov – have populations of more than a opportunities who are particularly receptive to regions. The share of top-ranking lifeworlds and the North Caucasian Federal District. The million. Volgograd is currently trying to shake extreme ideas. Although many people have left corresponds roughly with the Russian national majority of the 23 million inhabitants of this off its image as a purely industrial city by the region in search of better living conditions, average. This is an indication that wealth is region live in the wealthier Southern Federal building modern offices, as well as hotels to the above average fertility rate has meant that very unequally distributed and that broad District, which stretches from the Black Sea accommodate ecotourists and in 2018 several the population has nonetheless grown. swathes of the population in the Southern in the west to Kazakhstan in the east. This is thousand football fans. The district capital, Federal District will not constitute a strong where the city of Sochi is located, which will Rostov, by contrast, shifted its focus much Around half of the population over the age of group of consumers in the long term. Because, be hosting several major sporting events in the earlier from industrial production to other 14 in southern Russia belongs to the lifeworlds contrary to the general Russian trend, the coming years. In 2014 the city with 340,000 economic sectors. Rostov and the surrounding of low-income women and men or working- population in the North Caucasus is growing, inhabitants on the Black Sea will host the oblast generate more than a fifth of the class elderly women and men and hence has the number of people of working age will Winter Olympics, in 2016 the ice hockey world district’s GDP through wholesale and retail decline only slightly in the future. championships, and two years later the soccer trade – one of the highest figures in Russia. World Cup will be staged at several cities in the district, including Sochi. This is one of the The poorhouses of the Southern Federal reasons why Sochi, located in District are the Republics of Adygea and in the west Caucasus, is currently Russia’s Kalmykia. The latter is struggling with an Education Work/Family Retirement leading investment location. unemployment rate of 15 percent. In the Top- Top- Human Development Index (HDI), the United Top- ranking ranking ranking Until not long ago, however, the Southern Nations’ development indicator, this small young house- mid-lifers republic north of the Caspian Sea is ranked persons wives Federal District was known not for sport but Middle- Middle- for food production. In 2009 almost one sixth very near the bottom. Living conditions in class class of Russia’s total agricultural produce came Kalmykia are as bad as those in the crisis elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older from Krasnodar Krai and Rostov and Volgograd areas of Chechnya and Ingushetia in the North Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking oblasts. The rural population made up more Caucasus – Russia’s most explosive region. pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers than a third of the district’s 13.9 million persons wives Working- Working- alone inhabitants and was hence ten percentage The 9.5 million North Caucasians are class class points higher than the Russian average. Large composed of fifty ethnic groups. This ethnic elderly elderly men women companies specialising in grain or sunflower mix, in conjunction with the poor economic Low Low oil production have established themselves and social situation, constitutes a breeding income income women in the region. While these are lucrative ground for unrest. Of the eight internal men

industries, they do not bring many jobs, so conflicts that took place in Russia in 2011, status Socioeconomic that the people in southern Russia draw little seven occurred in the North Caucasus – all benefit from the yield of their fertile black soil involving the use of arms. The average monthly Phase of life region. income in the region in 2010 was just 60 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older percent of the national average, and the + 3 % – 8 % + 39 % unemployment rate in the North Caucasus is, Development of the population according to age group until 2025

108 Lifeworlds in Europe Russia The Volga Federal District thus offers investors the economy there is not very diversified Were there to be another crisis, the region good opportunities for doing business. Of the and is dominated by the largest Russian car would run the risk of increasing the share of The Volga ten Russian cities scoring highest in the World manufacturer AvtoVAS, which produces under the population with low income (or among Bank’s Ease of Doing Business Index in 2012, the name of Lada and is located in the city retired people, working-class elderly women three were in the Volga Federal District. They of Tol’yatti with its 720,000 inhabitants. and men) and weak purchasing power. Today On 17 April 2012 a 30-year legend came to are thus among the best places to invest in Before the crisis the company provided almost half the population over the age of 14 an end in Izhevsk, a city in the middle of the the whole country. Yet while some areas of 130,000 jobs for the region, but one year – and hence more than the national average Volga Federal District with a population of the district are making major leaps forward, later this had dropped to 100,000. Only with – belongs to these lifeworlds. The top-ranking 630,000, when the last Lada Nova rolled in others the picture is far more gloomy. In state assistance was it possible to rescue lifeworlds, by contrast, make up a very small off the production line. The small, angular Saratov and Ulyanovsk Oblast as well as in the the company; three years after the slump the proportion of the population, at just 10 four-seater was the Russian equivalent of the Republics of Mordvinia and Chuvashia, with Russian car industry is booming again, and percent, below the national average. As in all East German Trabant (affectionately known a combined population of 3.4 million, one Russia is on the way to becoming Europe’s Russian regions, it is primarily the younger as the Trabi) and had served as a means of in five people was living below the statutory largest car market. Renault-Nissan wants to cohorts of working age that are likely to shrink transport for countless families. Yet this relic subsistence level in 2010. In the Republic of take over AvtoVAS with the aim of supplying by 2025 and with them the younger lifeworlds. of the Soviet era would be rather out of place Mari El, with 700,000 inhabitants, the figure the Russian car market with models for the Only if the economic situation stabilises in the heady, forward-looking atmosphere of was as high as one in four. masses. Yet the economy of the Volga district will the lifeworlds of mid-lifers with greater the post-Soviet Volga Federal District with continues to rest on a rather shaky basis with purchasing power remain at anything like their its 30 million inhabitants – more than one Overall, however, the Volga region offers its the one-factory city of Tol’yatti. current level. fifth of the Russian population. Many of the population acceptable living conditions, as 14 administrative divisions of this district shown by the Human Development Index, are rather successful by Russian standards: which takes account of per capita GDP the Republic of Tatarstan, in the geographical and income as well as life expectancy and Education Work/Family Retirement heartland of the district, for instance, is educational indicators and thus derives Top- Top- exceeded in economic performance only a comprehensive evaluation of the level Top- ranking ranking ranking by Moscow and by Tyumen, Sakhalin, and of development. In 2009, four of the 14 young house- mid-lifers persons wives Chukhotka in the Urals and Far East Federal territories in the Volga district ranked among Middle- Middle- Districts, all of which are rich in raw materials. Russia’s top twenty. Tatarstan achieves top class class The Republic of Bashkortostan in the south- values and comes fourth in the national elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older eastern part of the district counts among league table. The majority of the territories Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking Russia’s ten most economically developed were positioned around the middle, with the pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers territories. The republic derives its wealth exception of Kirov Oblast with 1.3 million persons wives Working- Working- alone mainly from oil extraction and refining. Other inhabitants, which only made it to place 64 class class thriving economic centres in the district and is thus one of the worst-developed areas elderly elderly men women include Orenburg, Samara, Perm, and Nizhnii of Russia. Low Low Novgorod. income income men women Owing to the recession in the crisis year 2009,

the second largest territory, Samara Oblast, status Socioeconomic located in the north of the Volga Federal District, was one of six Russian regions in Phase of life which, according to the HDI, living conditions 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older have deteriorated. One reason for this is that + 3 % – 15 % + 32 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 109 Russia Yet the focus on oil and gas also makes the The populations of the other southern oblasts, Demographic prognoses for the period up region vulnerable to economic fluctuations. Chelyabinsk and Sverdlovsk, both industrial to 2025 predict a decline only among young The Urals Nowhere in Russia was the impact of the 2009 centres, are also declining, albeit at a much people of working age – a consequence of economic crisis stronger than in the Urals and slower rate than in Kurgan. The picture in the low number of births in the 1990s. In line in the similarly structured neighbouring Volga the north, where well-paid jobs in the oil and with this, even if economic developments At 1,895 metres the Narodnaya is the highest region. Industrial production plummeted and it gas industry attract many young workers, is are positive, the proportion of mid- and peak in the Ural mountains, which run is estimated that the unemployment rate shot completely different. This has given Tyumen top-ranking young lifeworlds with stronger from north to south dividing the Eurasian up to the level of 2008, the rouble crisis year. Oblast an above average young population. purchasing power is likely to shrink. The landmass into two halves. From the top of Official figures put the unemployment rate in Roughly half of the inhabitants are younger number of school pupils, elderly women the snow-covered peaks of this mountain 2009 at 8 percent, a big increase from the 5 than 40, and around a quarter are between and men of retirement age, and people range there is nothing to suggest that the percent the previous year.* By 2010 there had the ages of 20 and 29. The number of births of middle and advanced working age, by surrounding Urals Federal District, located at been little recovery and still stood at 8 percent, and deaths more or less balance each other contrast, is likely to increase. So far the the boundary with Asia, is where Russia’s most half of a percent above the national average. out, and thanks to continuous in-migration the economic successes of some areas have contaminated areas lie. The economy is based population is growing. impacted on only a small proportion of the on the metallurgy industry and on oil and gas The poorhouse of the Urals Federal District, population. Almost 40 percent, an unusually extraction, and thus nowhere else in Russia however, is Kurgan Oblast, where around high proportion (in national terms), have low are so many tonnes per capita of harmful 12 percent of people capable of gainful income, while the top-ranking lifeworlds are substances released into the environment as employment are unemployed. Unlike the rest thinly populated in all age groups. here. of the Urals region it has no natural resources, and only the pipelines and the Transiberian Yet what is a curse for nature is a blessing railway in the border zone with Kazakhstan for the economy of the Urals region and serve as a reminder of Russia’s rich natural Education Work/Family Retirement for Russia as a whole. It means that the 12 resources. The average monthly income is well Top- Top- million inhabitants of the federal district below the national average as well as below Top- ranking ranking ranking produce around 14 percent of Russian GDP, that of the neighbouring regions. The Human young house- mid-lifers persons wives even though they make up only 8 percent of Development Index also shows how large the Middle- Middle- the Russian population. In Tyumen Oblast, discrepancies are within the federal district: class class one of the four large administrative units three of the four administrative units of the elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older of the district, per capita GDP in 2009 was Urals region rank among the national top Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking almost three times the national average. twenty. But Kurgan doesn’t even make it half pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers And in other respects, too, the oil and gas way up the table and comes in at place 60 of a persons wives Working- Working- alone region of Tyumen occupies some of the top total of 80. For that reason many people want class class places within the Russian . After to leave. In 2010, 192,000 fewer people lived elderly elderly men women Moscow and St Petersburg it comes third in the in Kurgan than in 1989 – a loss of more than 17 Low Low national league table compiled by the Human percent. income income women Development Index. This means that Tyumen is men

regarded not only as an economic pioneer but status Socioeconomic also as a model when it comes to providing its own population with a high standard of living. * The official unemployment statistics have been made to Phase of life look better by employing people part-time or in the public 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older sector. See National Human Development Report for the Russian Federation 2011: Modernization and Human + 12 % – 9 % + 39 % Development, p. 129. Development of the population according to age group until 2025

110 Lifeworlds in Europe Russia While this change has meant that some areas Since many of these Siberian companies Despite the rather mediocre level of of Siberia have become strongly depopulated, cannot compete on the world market, they development the top-ranking lifeworlds are Siberia others are growing. Novosibirsk, the third are doomed in the long run, and will lead to well represented in Siberia, making up roughly largest city in Russia after Moscow and St whole cities going bankrupt. To make itself 15 percent of all consumers. People in the Petersburg, has increased its population internationally competitive, the federal district working and family phases of life with weak Not long ago Yemelyanovo airport near by 130,000 to a current size of 1.5 million. must bring about a technological revolution purchasing power in conjunction with working- Kranoyarsk won first prize in the “dynamic This is partly due to the fact that the level of and establish a knowledge-based economy. class elderly persons account for about 40 development” category of a competition for development in Novosibirsk Oblast is rather Yet with an aging workforce and too few percent of the population and are hence a the best post-Soviet airport. With more than high. Together with Krasnoyarsk, , and young specialists who might drive innovation smaller group than in most other Russian 1.6 million passengers in 2011, the airport was Tomsk Oblasts, Novosibirsk comes near the top forward, this seems unlikely. One exception regions. Because the number of people of well used, particularly as a hub for travelling of the Human Development Index for Russia is Tomsk, a university city with around half a working age is likely to decline further by to other parts of Russia or to Europe or South- and thus has a level of development almost on million inhabitants. Every fifth person here is 2025, the lifeworlds of people in the working East Asia. For Siberia the airport is symbolic, a par with Moscow and St Petersburg. a student, and the environment is creative and and family phases of life are shrinking – with given that since the 1990s the federal district forward-looking. Tomsk registers more patents the exception of those of mid-lifers, since has become a transit region for migrants. Taken as a whole, however, Siberia has been per capita than any other region apart from St the population decline affects only younger Siberia is roughly 14 times the size of Germany unable to keep up with Russian development. Petersburg and Moscow. cohorts. The number of those younger than but has only 19 million inhabitants. Between The average monthly income in 2009 was 20, by contrast, is predicted to increase over 1993 and 2009, around 430,000 people not above the national average in any of the today’s low level. moved from Siberia to other districts of Russia, Siberian regions. In that crisis year more than but the exodus was largely counterbalanced one person in ten in Siberia was unemployed, by in-migration from Asia. Nevertheless, the and in 2010 the unemployment rate was still population is shrinking. This is explained by 8.7 percent – more than one percentage point Education Work/Family Retirement natural demographic developments – because above the national average. No area of Russia Top- Top- of the low birth rate around 1.8 million fewer offers such a low standard of living as the Top- ranking ranking ranking people live in the region than they did in 1989. Siberian Republic of Tuva, which comes right young house- mid-lifers persons wives at the bottom of the Human Development Middle- Middle- Index for Russia; in 2010 more than one class class person in five in Tuva was unemployed. elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking One of the reasons why the situation is so pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers bad is that Siberia does not properly exploit persons wives Working- Working- alone its potential. A good example is timber – one class class of Russia’s most important natural resources elderly elderly men women alongside oil and gas. Although Siberia is Low Low home to Russia’s largest forests, the Siberians income income only use the forests half as efficiently as men women

would be technically possible – the processing status Socioeconomic technology is obsolete, the infrastructure is poor, and production is inefficient. Many of Phase of life Siberia’s one-industry cities, where almost 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older the entire workforce is employed by a single + 10 % – 12 % + 36 % company, suffer from similar problems. Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 111 Russia People have been moving away from the Far The reason why this region and the district Despite the generally depressing picture, East ever since the heavily subsidised arms as a whole are losing inhabitants, despite there are some individuals who have The Far East and consumer goods industries went bankrupt the abundance of natural resources, is that managed to achieve a high standard of living: following the demise of the Soviet Union. the extraction of raw materials brings only a the percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds Together with the freezing cold winters, the few jobs, and those mainly for men, of whom is comparatively high – an indication, In 2012 the Far Eastern city of Vladivostok poor infrastructure, and high living costs, this there are an above average number in the Far however, that wealth is particularly unequally hosted the APEC summit, a meeting of the has made the Far East an unattractive place East. In addition, education and research are distributed, for the middle class is even smaller 21 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic to live. The social atmosphere is gloomy as underdeveloped; the government is therefore here than the Russian average. Whereas by Cooperation. In anticipation of this event, well: Siberia and the Far East have the highest also investing in education in the hope of 2025 the share of school pupils is likely to the city, the largest in the Far Eastern Federal murder rate in the entire country. attracting a young, educated population. have stabilised at a low level, the group of District, invested around 16 billion euros young people capable of gainful employment in development and modernisation – for At 8.7 percent the unemployment rate is above is shrinking considerably. The lifeworlds of example, in the world’s longest suspension the Russian average. With few exceptions, middle-aged and older people of working age bridge connecting the mainland with the wages and salaries in the Far East are below will probably remain roughly the same. The remote Russky Island and spanning a distance the norm for the country. There are only a majority of tomorrow’s pensioners are likely of 3.1 km. When Prime Minister Medvedev few gleams of hope, in places where people to have only a meagre income, although all visited the port city with its population have managed to make a profit out of existing lifeworlds in the retirement phase of life will of 592,000, which is also the end of the resources like gold, diamonds, oil, and gas grow. Transiberian railway, he described it as – for instance in Chukhotka in the extreme Russia’s San Francisco. north-east, where the former governor Roman Abramovich, famous in Europe for buying This major investment programme is part of the English football club Chelsea, managed Education Work/Family Retirement a strategy to make the entire federal district to attract foreign investors and to get gold Top- Top- more attractive. Between 1989 and 2010 production going. Here the average monthly Top- ranking ranking ranking this huge region lost 1.7 million inhabitants income is even slightly above the national young house- mid-lifers persons wives and is now home to only 6.3 million people. average and the unemployment rate is only Middle- Middle- Indeed, the Far East accounts for almost 4 percent – in both cases the best figures class class half the decline in the Russian population as in the entire Far Eastern Federal District. elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older a whole. More deaths than births together Nevertheless, here, too, the population Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking with out-migration will mean that by 2025 is shrinking rapidly, having declined by 6 pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers the population is expected to decline even percent between 2002 and 2010. In Sakhalin, persons wives Working- Working- alone further to only 6 million. Three quarters of the according to the Human Development Index class class population live in cities – 1.7 million of them the most developed area in the federal district, elderly elderly men women in Vladivostok and the administrative base the decline was even greater – 9 percent – and Low Low Khabarovsk alone. Vladivostok and Khabarovsk this despite the fact that the region has major income income Oblasts, both located in the extreme east of oil and gas reserves and in 2010 almost 10 men women

the country, are also the cultural centre of the percent of all direct foreign investment in status Socioeconomic Far East Federal District, which otherwise is Russia went to Sakhalin. largely devoid of people. Phase of life 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older + 2 % – 14 % + 32 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

112 Lifeworlds in Europe Nevertheless, Germany is going in the right After a phase of high unemployment in the direction in terms of making ever better use 1990s and 2000s, both the economy and the GERMANY of its workforce’s potential. The employment labour market have developed favourably more rate for older people of working age is rising, recently. Between 2005 and 2008 new jobs Population in 2011 81,751,602 as is that of women: around 70 percent of were created in almost all regions of Germany Projected population in 2025 80,907,365 women between the ages of 20 and 64 go out – above all in the major cities of Berlin, Ham- to work and they are closing the gap with the burg, Munich, and Stuttgart, but also in some Number of children per woman in 2011 1.39 employment rate of men. However, around 45 rural regions, such as western Lower Saxony. Median age in 2011 44.6 percent of women only work part-time, not The unemployment rate has almost halved and GfK per capita purchasing power in euros 19,684 always voluntarily and not only if they have has fallen from one of the highest in the EU – Percentage of top-ranking lifeworlds 21.2 small children. Of the 55- to 64-year-olds, not more than 11 percent – to just under 6 percent. even half were economically active in 2005. Even in the economic and financial crisis the Percentage of middle-class lifeworlds 34.1 The current figure is around 60 percent, and labour market has proved to be robust. Thus Percentage of lifeworlds with low purchasing power 24.5 the trend is increasing. in economic terms Germany has reason to be optimistic about the future, even if the current weakness of important trading partners such Geographically speaking Germany is at the after that the decline will accelerate, so as Spain, Italy, and Great Britain is likely to centre of the EU27 and with around 82 million that by 2060 the population is expected to have an impact on the export-oriented German inhabitants is the EU’s most populous and – have shrunk to between 65 and 70 million. economy. in GDP terms – economically most powerful From around the mid-2040s, according to country. At the same time, it leads the EU in prognoses, Germany will only be the third demographic trends, for in the country known largest of today’s EU27 states after France and Education Work/Family Retirement for its “economic miracle” in the 1950s the Great Britain. Top- Top- number of children born per woman had Top- ranking ranking ranking already fallen to around 1.5 in the early 1970s, Thus when it comes to the problem of an aging young house- mid-lifers persons wives diminishing further in the 1980s to 1.4, which population, Germany is the EU’s biggest worry. Middle- Middle- is still the norm today. Since then, each new Germany’s economy, social security systems, class class generation has been a third smaller than their and labour market will already start to feel elderly elderly Mid- Mid- men women Older parents’ generation numerically. Moreover, the effects of this trend from 2015. In the Mid- School ranking ranking people ranking since 1972 the country has also recorded more subsequent decade the numerically large baby- pupils Students young house- living mid-lifers deaths than births each year. boom generation born in the 1960s will start persons wives Working- Working- alone to reach pension age. By 2025 the number class class For a long time it was possible to compensate of people capable of gainful employment elderly elderly men women for this natural demographic decline through between the ages of 20 and 64 is expected to Low Low immigration, but by 2002 the population of be more than 3.5 million below the figure for income income Germany had peaked, and since that point it 2010, and by 2030 between six and almost men women

has been falling. The only exception was 2011 eight million below that level. This will pose status Socioeconomic when it grew slightly as a result of increased major challenges for social security systems immigration. While there will still be almost and pension funds. Phase of life 80 million people living in Germany in 2025, 0 –19 years 20 –59 years 60 years and older – 10 % – 10 % + 26 %

Development of the population according to age group until 2025

Lifeworlds in Europe 113 The gloomy demographic prospects do not Because mainly young and qualified people The regional distribution of the lifeworlds, Children keep you young – but all countries affect all parts of Germany equally. Some leave these areas, they lose not only their the economic and demographic situation in are growing older regions in southern Germany lead the EU in potential parents but also the talent which the German regions, and the predicted future terms of economic power, prosperity, and would be especially crucial for the German trends formed the subject of a study entitled In no other European country did the fertility rate decline so early and so drastically as in Germany. innovation. They are growing demographically economy in these regions in the future. To at Lifeworlds 2025: How Consumer Structure Those born after the dip in birth rates caused by the and are likely to attract migrants both from least maintain the current level of prosperity in the Regions Is Changing published by the advent of the contraceptive pill are now a smaller abroad and from other regions of Germany. and preserve the innovative capability of GfK Verein in 2011. cohort of parents and have themselves had few In view of the fact that the population is the economy despite a falling number of children. For that reason the proportion of older shrinking, competition between the regions economically active people, the productivity people in the population as a whole is particularly high in Germany. It will rise again steeply from 2020 is growing. Only those areas that succeed in of those in employment must rise. Yet this onwards when the baby-boom generation starts to attracting young people will be able to grow will only be possible if the educational level reach retirement age. Countries like Great Britain or or remain stable in demographic terms – and of the population rises. Lifelong learning is a France, where more children are born, are also aging, this happens mainly at the expense of rural prerequisite for a higher retirement age. Projected percentage of over-65-year-olds in the total but not as much as Germany or Italy, where the birth population 2010 to 2050 (Russia: 2011 to 2030) regions whose populations in some places rate is at a similarly low level. Poland today still has (Source: Eurostat; Rosstat) a young population but will in the future have to face have already fallen considerably and which are Germany’s population is already one of the a particularly sharp rise in the population of over-64- 2010 likely to continue to lose people in the future. oldest in Europe today. By 2025 the total year-olds. number of people under 20 and those between 2020 35 Many regions of eastern Germany are still 20 and 59 is expected to fall by another 2030 suffering the demographic consequences of 10 percent. Given this trend, none of the 2040 2050 the fall of communism. The number of children lifeworlds in the education and the work and 30 born per woman plummeted to under one family phases is likely to remain numerically for a time so that currently the “halved post- stable, even if the economy and the labour 25 communist generation” are reaching the age market continue to develop favourably. All when they might start a family. The number lifeworlds of the retirement phase, on the of potential parents had already dropped other hand, are expected to grow considerably. 20 in the 1990s and 2000s because young Given the periods of high unemployment people in particular – and more women than in the 1990s and the 2000s together with men – migrated westwards. Other areas also the demographic trend, pension funds will 15 currently battling population decline are the be additionally burdened; particularly in rural regions in western Germany along the the eastern German regions the share of 10 former inner German border as well as the pensioners with a modest income is likely to conurbations of the Ruhr and Saarland which grow. In other parts of Germany, particularly have yet to overcome both old industries around the economically successful 5 becoming obsolete and the economic conurbations in Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, restructuring required to compensate for this. Hesse, Lower Saxony, Hamburg, and Greater 0 Düsseldorf-Cologne, many future pensioners Italy EU27 Spain Russia can expect to maintain their high standard of France Poland Austria

living when they retire. Germany Great Britain Great The Netherlands The

114 Lifeworlds in Europe Proportion of women INDICATORS AND EVALUATION Since men are more likely to find employment in structurally weak regions, more young women than men leave these regions, thus leading to a shortage of potential mothers. This is an early indicator of further population The figures used to evaluate whole countries As well as the overall evaluation for each Number of children losses. There is also a shortage of women in regions with and individual regions in Chapter 1 of this country/region and the evaluations for the a large number of male migrants, which also produces study were calculated for countries which fields of employment and economy, ten further If life expectancy remains constant and there is no in- or demographic instability. Since generally more boys than were members of the European Union in 2012 indicators for the above-mentioned regions out-migration, the size of a population will remain stable if girls are born, the gender ratio in this age group in Europe every woman has 2.1 children in the course of her lifetime. is usually 97 women to every 100 men. as well as for the non-EU countries Iceland, and countries and for Russia’s federal subjects If fewer children than this are born, a population will begin Norway, and Switzerland. For eight countries are presented. The source and definition of to shrink unless there is in-migration. Coding key Unit of measurement: (Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, the these indicators is set out on the respective 99.01 and more 1 number of women per 100 Netherlands, Austria, Poland, and Spain) the map. In the following we define each of the 24 Coding key Unit of measurement: the 96.01 to 99 2men in the 20 to 29 age average number of children 93.01 to 96 3group in 2010. maps show the values for the NUTS-2 regions, indicators, specifying the year to which they 2.11 and more 1 1.85 to 2.10 2 born to a woman in the 90.01 to 93 4 whereas the respective national average apply and the data source. 1.59 to 1.84 3course of her lifetime if the 87.01 to 90 5Source: Eurostat online was applied for the remaining countries. 1.33 to 1.58 4birth rates for all age groups 87 and fewer 6data bank (2010; 2009 for The evaluation does not include the French 1.07 to 1.32 5between 15 and 49 would Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, overseas territories, the two Spanish exclaves Demographics 1.06 and fewer 6remain at the level they Iceland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, and Malta). were when the calculation in Morocco, or Liechtenstein because too much was made in 2009. This total fertility rate (TFR) is Migration data was missing. Demographic data allow us to make often expressed in simplified terms as the average predictions about the future. In places number of children per woman. The number of people migrating in or out of a region In order to obtain evaluations, both for each where few children are born today, is a sign of how attractive it is. The more positive the Source: Eurostat online data bank (2009). category (population, economy, health etc.) there will be fewer adults tomorrow. migration balance, the more popular the region is. and overall, from the 24 indicators comprising Consequently, the share of older people Since it is mainly people between the ages of 20 and 40 the index, the data were coded on a scale of 1 in these places is high today and will Under 35-year-olds who migrate, positive migration balances tend to make to 6. The individual indicators were combined be even higher tomorrow. A society populations younger, especially if the in-migrants have A high proportion of under 35-year-olds in a population children. In areas with negative migration balances it is to first provide intermediate scores and then can only remain viable if a certain is a sign that a region will continue to have a sufficient mainly older people who stay behind. In addition, highly an overall evaluation. Our aim was to assess minimum number of children are born. number of people of working age and a sufficient number qualified people are generally more mobile, which is why how fit each region is for the future and to A disproportionate number of elderly of potential parents. migration movements also have an impact on economic compare the findings with those of the 2008 people who no longer participate in development. study Europe’s Demographic Future published working life puts a strain on social Coding key Unit of measurement: percentage of under 35-year- Coding key Unit of measurement: systems and weakens the economy. The 52.01 and more 1 by the Berlin Institute. For this reason the 48.01 to 52 2 olds in the total population 7.01 and more 1 balance of in- and out- same coding system was used as in 2008. regions young people are leaving today 44.01 to 48 3 in the year 2010. 3.51 to 7 2migration (in-migration The data were taken primarily from the online are those where they see insufficient 40.01 to 44 4 0.01 to 3.50 3minus out-migration) per data bank of Eurostat, the statistics office prospects of work and the means to make 36.01 to 40 5 Source: Eurostat online –2.50 to 0 4 1,000 inhabitants; mean a living in the long term. In addition 36 and less 6data bank (2010; 2009 for –5 to –2.51 5value for the years 2009 of the European Union and in a few cases Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, –5.01 and less 6and 2010. All values below were supplemented with data from national to the data portraying the status quo, Iceland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, and Malta). zero indicate a negative statistics offices. projections allow us to portray future migration balance. developments. Source: Eurostat online data bank (2009 and 2010; 2009 for Great Britain).

Lifeworlds in Europe 115 Over 75-year-olds have to spend more to purchase the same volume of GDP The Economy products. An income of 1,000 euros is thus worth less After people reach the age of 75 the costs of providing there than the European average and is hence below Gross domestic product (GDP) denotes the total value 1,000 when expressed in PPCS. In countries with a low them with healthcare rise and the probability that they Economic data, such as the percentage of all economic activity in a region that results from will need nursing care increases. This puts a strain on price level the opposite applies. production in that region. By dividing GDP by the number state budgets and welfare funds. of the population engaged in gainful of inhabitants it is possible to compare the economic employment, the unemployment rate, Source: Eurostat online data bank (2009); Federal performance of different regions. We should be aware, Coding key Unit of measurement: average household incomes, and gross Statistics Office Switzerland (2008); Statistics Iceland however, that in certain regions, like capital cities, GDP (2008). There were no comparable data available for 5 and less 1percentage of over-75-year- domestic product also allow us a glimpse can be influenced by people commuting from elsewhere. 5.01 to 6.50 2 Norway or Malta. olds in the population as a of the future. This is because people can These commuters contribute to higher value added at their 6.51 to 8 3 whole in 2010. place of work that would not have been achieved solely by 8.01 to 9.50 4 only live long term in places where there Redistribution the people who both work and live there. This produces 9.51 to 11 5 Source: Eurostat online are sufficient jobs available today and very high per capita GDP in places like inner London. 11.01 and more 6 data bank (2010; 2009 for where enough money is earned. Generally By redistributing resources the state tries to even out Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, people move to places where they can social differences between regions and to reduce the Coding key Unit of measurement: GDP in Iceland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, and Malta). obtain work and education. Structurally divide between poor and rich. The relationship between 31,001 and more 1 purchasing power standards 25,501 to 31,000 2 per capita in 2009. weak regions and regions with dying disposable household income and primary income (the Prognosis for 2030 sum total of all income earned from work and capital 20,001 to 25,500 3 GDP is calculated in industries fall a long way behind regions before tax and social insurance payments) serves to 14,501 to 20,000 4 purchasing power standards with innovative industries. 9,001 to 14,500 5 (PPS), a notional currency Population prognoses are based on projections of fertility, elucidate the redistribution mechanism. Prosperous 9,000 and less 6 unit that allows comparisons life expectancy, and in- and out-migration both within regions have a high primary income, which, after taxes and social insurance have been deducted, produces to be drawn between regions countries and from outside. The source used is the most with different price levels. Unlike the PPCS, which recent regional population prognosis Europop2008 Disposable Income a lower disposable household income. From a fiscal point of view it is desirable for the primary income to measures the purchasing power of households, the published by Eurostat; for Iceland the projection was PPS also takes account of the price level of capital produced by Statistics Iceland (middle scenario). be clearly above the disposable household income. Disposal income is the sum of money available per capita Economically weak regions with a low primary income investment (e.g. machines and construction). The to spend on consumption, to invest, and to save each year. have their disposable income boosted through monetary reference point for the PPS is the euro. Coding key Unit of measurement: A region’s prosperity is reflected in the level of disposable social benefits from the state. The difference between 15.01 and more 1 projected percentage gain household incomes. disposable income and primary income thus becomes Source: Eurostat online data bank (2009). 8.01 to 15 2or loss of inhabitants in the smaller, and disposable income may even exceed primary 0.01 to 8 3period from 2010 to 2030. Coding key Unit of measurement: income. However, it is not only state aid that influences –8 to 0 4 17,501 and more 1 disposable per capita income household income but also transfer payments of other –15 to –8.01 5Source: Eurostat online Tourism 14,501 to 17,500 2 after paying tax and social kinds (such as, for example, money sent home by people –15.01 and less 6data bank (2010 and 2030; 11,501 to 14,500 3 insurance and after receiving working in other regions or countries). 2009 und 2030 for Cyprus, 8,501 to 11,500 4 monetary social benefits Even in some places where there is no industry or Estonia, Greece, Iceland, 5,501 to 8,500 5 (such as pensions, child agriculture, it is possible to make a living as long as the Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, and Malta), Statistics Coding key Unit of measurement: area is of interest to tourists. Tourism is an important 5,500 and less 6 benefit, or unemployment 76 and less 1 disposable income of private Iceland (2010 and 2030). benefit) expressed in source of income in some European regions, and because 76.01 to 82 2households as a percentage the number of overnight stays is measured in per capita purchasing power consumption standards (PPCS) in 82.01 to 88 3 of primary income in 2009. 2009. Purchasing power consumption standards are a terms, thinly populated areas score high in the statistics 88.01 to 94 4 whereas cities visited by tourists such as Berlin, Lisbon, notional currency unit that enables comparisons to be 94.01 to 100 5 Source: Eurostat online drawn between regions with different price levels. The or London do rather badly. In the context of this study 100.01 and more 6 data bank (2009); Federal the grading makes sense because in cities the income PPCS defines how much a household can afford to buy Statistics Office Switzerland with its disposable income. from tourism is of course distributed among a larger (2008); Statistics Iceland (2008). There were no population. comparable data available for Norway or Malta. 1,000 purchasing power consumption standards are equivalent to the average purchasing power of 1,000 euros for all European countries for precisely defined products such as food, clothing, transport, or health services. In countries with a high price level citizens

116 Lifeworlds in Europe Coding key Unit of measurement: annual Coding key Unit of measurement: resources. A high level of female employment may help to Youth unemployment 20.01 and more 1 number of overnight stays 76.01 and more 1 percentage of the population cushion the negative effects of a decline in the number of 6.51 to 20 2 per capita, mean value for 70.01 to 76 2between the ages of 15 and people of working age. Regions in which youth and young adults have only slim 3.51 to 6.5 3 the years 2007 to 2010. 64.01 to 70 364 in gainful employment chances of getting a job are wasting the potential offered 2.01 to 3.5 4 Coding key 58.01 to 64 4 in 2011. Unit of measurement: by young, motivated, newly qualified people. Youth 1.01 to 2 5 72.01 and more 1 Source: Eurostat online data 52.01 to 58 5 percentage of women unemployment is also a problem, however, in places 1 and fewer 6 64.01 to 72 2 bank (2007 to 2010; 2007 52 and less 6Source: Eurostat online data in gainful employment where young people do not have sufficient qualifications. 56.01 to 64 3 to 2009 for Saxony and bank (2011). as a share of the total These regions lose their competitive edge and are 48.01 to 56 4 Luxembourg; 2009 to 2010 for London). female population between threatened by out-migration. Unemployment 40.01 to 48.01 5the ages of 15 and 64 in 40 and less 6 2011. Coding key Unit of measurement: 10 and less 1percentage of unemployed The Labour Market In places where many of those in search of work fail to find Source: Eurostat online data bank (2011). it, tax revenues and social insurance payments will be low 10.01 to 17.5 2as a share of the labour force and there will be more of a drain on the public purse. 17.51 to 24 3between the ages of 15 and The number of people who look for Employment of older people 24.01 to 31.5 424 in 2011. and indeed find work is an important Coding key Unit of measurement: 31.51 to 38 5 factor that determines the prosperity 4 and less 1 percentage of unemployed Because the population as a whole is aging, older 38.01 and more 6Source: Eurostat online data and future prospects of a region. This is 4.01 to 6 2as a share of the labour force members of the workforce are becoming an increasingly bank (2011). because only regions where there are 6.01 to 8 3between the ages of 15 and important section of the working population. Regions sufficient jobs for women and men today 8.01 to 10 464 in 2011. where a relatively large percentage of over-55-year-olds Highly qualified people 10.01 to 12 5 already work today have prepared themselves well for the will be viable places to live in the future. 12.01 and more 6Source: Eurostat online data future. Long-term unemployment in particular A highly qualified workforce is a measure of jobs in future- bank (2011). oriented economic sectors. is a revealing indicator of the structural Coding key Unit of measurement: weakness of particular regions or of the Long-term unemployment 62.01 and more 1 percentage of the population Coding key Unit of measurement: between the ages of 55 lack of qualifications of those looking for 54.01 to 62 2 36.01 and more 1 percentage of the workforce 46.01 to 54 3and 64 who were gainfully work. The aging of society also makes it A high proportion of long-term unemployed is a sign that 30.01 to 36 2with tertiary education 38.01 to 46 4employed in 2011. 3(ISCED 5 to 6, equivalent to necessary to go on training people over those in search of work are finding it very difficult to 24.01 to 30 30.01 to 38 5 18.01 to 24 4a degree from a university re-enter the job market and testifies both to the structural Source: Eurostat online data 50 and to try to retain them as productive 30 and less 6 12.01 to 18 5or university of applied weakness of a region and to the insufficient qualifications bank (2011). members of the workforce. of many of those seeking work. 12 and less 6sciences) in the 25 to 64 age group in 2010. Coding key Unit of measurement: Source: Eurostat online data bank (2010). Gainful employment 15 and less 1percentage of unemployed Education, Science, and Technology 15.01 to 25 2who have been without a job 25.01 to 35 3for twelve months or longer This indicator shows how many people of working age The most important capital of European 35.01 to 45 4 in 2011. are engaged in gainful employment for at least one hour a 45.01 to 55 5 nations is the intellectual power of their week. The employment rate denotes the actual use made 55.01 and more 6Source: Eurostat online data citizens and the availability of highly of the workforce as a resource (excluding the shadow bank (2011). skilled people. Without an adequate level economy). Lower employment rates lead to a loss of economic potential and tax revenues. of education no country can withstand Female employment international competition. Only where there is sufficient and targeted investment Alongside the political goal of creating gender equality on in research and development can the labour market, demographic change and the decline attractive jobs be retained in the long in the percentage of people of working age mean that it is important to make optimal use of available labour term.

Lifeworlds in Europe 117 Research and development The carbon dioxide trend The Environment Health

Modern knowledge societies can use research and Reducing CO2 emissions is a precondition for slowing the development to generate future growth and employment, In the era of climate change rise of the global concentration of greenhouse gases in the A healthy population results from a provided both the state and private companies invest in atmosphere and is hence a decisive factor in sustainable knowledge and innovation. environmental protection is assuming development. Particularly industrialised countries high standard of living and a good an increasingly important role. Two of undergoing rapid structural change and experiencing the healthcare system and is an indicator of a Coding key Unit of measurement: state the main tasks are to reduce greenhouse decline of industries harmful to the climate – as in Eastern population’s ability to perform. Since for 3.51 and more 1and company expenditure on gases (especially carbon dioxide Europe, for example – have been able to bring about many countries there are no up-to-date 1.81 to 3.50 2research and development emissions) and to generate energy in an marked improvements within a short period of time. In regional data available on health, each 1.01 to 1.80 3as a percentage of GDP in countries which have been late in industrialising, on the environmentally friendly way. Since in region was awarded the overall indicator 0.51 to 1.00 42009. other hand, CO2 emissions are still increasing. 0.21 to 0.50 5 many cases there are no up-to-date data value for the respective country. 0.20 and less 6Source: Eurostat online available for the regions in the category Coding key Unit of measurement: data bank (2009; 2008 for of environmental protection, each –34.01 and less 1 percentage reduction or rise Switzerland; 2007 for Greece). –34 to –18.01 2in CO emissions between region was awarded the indicator of the 2 Life Expectancy –18 to –2.01 31990 and 2009. respective country. Patent registrations –2 to 14 4 14.01 to 30 5Source: Eurostat online data The life expectancy of a population is closely linked to 30.01 and more 6 bank (1990 and 2009). good healthcare and a healthy lifestyle as well as its level The development of new, patentable inventions is an of education and prosperity. expression of the innovative power of a region and hence Carbon dioxide emissions of its competitiveness. Renewable energy Coding key Unit of measure: life Carbon dioxide (CO2) is by far the most important 80.01 and more 1expectancy in years in Coding key Unit of measurement: human-generated greenhouse gas, because it contributes Using renewable sources of energy such as water, 78.01 to 80 22009. 200.01 and more 1 total number of patents most strongly to the greenhouse effect. International wind, sun, or biomass not only has less impact on 76.01 to 78 3

100.01 to 200 2 registered with the European agreements require CO2 emissions to be reduced in the the environment but also has economic advantages. 74.01 to 76 4Source: Eurostat online 50.01 to 100 3Patent Office per million long term. Renewables are essentially free of charge and 72.01 to 74 5data bank (2009; 2008 for 25.01 to 50 4inhabitants in 2009. permanently available; only their use and the necessary 72 and less 6Italy). 5.01 to 25 5 Environmentally-aware countries have responded infrastructure (such as the construction of solar plants) positively to climate change by aiming to reduce their CO 5 and less 6Source: Eurostat online 2 incurs costs. Infant Mortality data bank (2009). No data emissions. Countries like Luxembourg, where vehicle fuel available for Switzerland, Iceland, Norway, the Canary is particularly cheap, score top values for this indicator, for Coding key Unit of measurement: Inadequate healthcare and poor hygiene are the main Islands (Spain), or Molise (Italy). the CO emissions figure is recorded in terms of fuel sales, 40.01 and more 1 percentage of renewables 2 reasons why some children die before their first birthday. and these are particularly high in Luxembourg because 17.01 to 40 2in total energy consumed Hence a rising standard of living is often accompanied by drivers from other countries come to buy their fuel there. 7.51 to 17 3in 2009. a fall in infant mortality. 5.01 to 7.5 4 Coding key Unit of measurement: CO 2.51 to 5 5Source: Eurostat online 2 Coding key Unit of measurement: 5 and less 1emissions in tonnes per 2.5 and less 6data bank (2009; 2006 for 4 and less 1number of children who die 5.01 to 6.5 2capita in 2009. Iceland). 4.01 to 6 2before their first birthday 6.51 to 8 3 6.01 to 8 3per 1,000 births in 2009. 8.01 to 9.5 4Source: Eurostat online data 8.01 to 10 4 9.51 to 11 5bank (2009). 10.01 to 12 5Source: Eurostat online data 11.01 and more 6 12.01 and more 6 bank (2009).

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++ The end of immigration: Spanish growth comes to a halt +++ Poland’s young population set to age considerably +++ A broad middle class in the Netherlands +++ The EU will grow until 2045, but its e w life expectancy and few older people in Russia +++ Labour market: a crisis in the South, a boom in the centre of the EU +++ Purchasing power and population concentrated in urban centres +++ Many P