eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory
Hurricane Harvey Information from NHC Advisory 21A, 1:00 PM CDT Fri August 25, 2017 On the forecast track, Harvey will make landfall on the middle Texas coast tonight or early Saturday. Harvey is then likely to meander near or just inland of the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible, and Harvey is forecast to become a major hurricane before it reaches the middle Texas coast.
Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 110 mph Position Relative to 85 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Middle Texas coast Speed: (Category 2/3) Land: TX Est. Time & Region: Friday night or early Min Central Pressure: 945 mb Coordinates: 27.1 N, 96.3 W Saturday
Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 140 miles Bearing/Speed: NW at 10 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed:
Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time (below right) both show Harvey continuing northwest but its forward speed is expected to decrease significantly during the next couple of days ■ Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 25 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 35 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country over through central and southwest Louisiana. Rainfall from Harvey will cause devastating and life-threatening flooding. ■ The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: 6 to 12 ft from Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent, 5 to 8 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach, 5 to 7 ft Port Mansfield to Padre Island Natl Seashore, 2 to 4 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island, 2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, 1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City ■ Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area later today and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are likely to persist along portions of the coast through at least Sunday. Forecast Track for Hurricane Harvey
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Coastal Watches and Warnings Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, Storm Surge Warnings and Watches, and Hurricane Warnings and Watches are in effect for portions of the southern coast of Texas. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system.
Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/25/17) 5 3 0 2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/25/17) 5 1 0
1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8
1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 (May25, 2017)
Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Harvey is the eighth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average year saw seven named storms by August 25, one of which was hurricane Alex – occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Hurricane Alice of 1955. Harvey became the season’s third hurricane on August 17. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).
New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season A broad area of low pressure located near the west-central coast of the Florida peninsula is Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over southern and central September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days Florida and the adjacent waters. This system is forecast to move northeastward and emerge over with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 25 is 79% for all hurricanes and 81% for major the western Atlantic over the weekend where some development is expected through early next week before it merges with a front. Regardless of development, very heavy rain and flooding is hurricanes. possible over portions of southern and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few days. In addition, this system is expected to cause increasing northeast winds and rough surf along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas through early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900
All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us
Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Matt Nicolai roy.c loutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657
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