DOCSLIB.ORG

Presentation Materials

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text

Load more

Lessons Learned During the 2017-2018 Wind Hurricane Seasons That’s What Most Think About Daniel Brown National Hurricane Center Water U.S. Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Deaths What Most Do Not Consider 1963-2012 Water accounts for about 90% of the direct deaths Rain 27% Storm Surge 49% Surf 6% Offshore 6% Wind 8% Tornado 3% Other 1% Rappaport 2014 2017-18 Hurricane Seasons 2017 Records & Other Highlights 12 Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Affected the U.S. • Five category 5 landfalls – 4 by Irma in the Caribbean – 1 by Maria in the Caribbean • Costliest year on record for the US with $265 Billion in damage – 2nd (Harvey), 3rd (Maria) and 5th (Irma) costliest U.S. individual storms • Several hundred direct and indirect deaths in the US, but NONE known from storm surge 1 Harvey - $125 Billion Irma - $50 Billion 2018 Records & Other Highlights • TS Alberto struck the U.S. before the official start of the season • Gordon made landfall along the northern Gulf coast as a strong tropical storm Maria - $90 Billion United States Facts & Figures • Slow-moving Florence produced • More than $265 billion in damage record setting rainfall in the • Several hundred direct and Carolinas indirect deaths • Maria was the strongest hurricane • Michael (category 4) was the most- to make landfall in Puerto Rico intense Florida Panhandle landfall since 1928 on record • Historic rains from Harvey Florence - $24 Billion Michael - $25 Billion New GOES-16 Satellite Provided High-Resolution Images of Hurricane Harvey United States Facts & Figures • Florence produced more than 30 inches of rainfall in North Carolina breaking a state record set during Floyd (1999) • Michael had the 3rd lowest minimum pressure at landfall in the continental United States • Michael is the 4th strongest by maximum winds on record in the U.S. • Michael is the strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane since Andrew (1992) Hurricane Harvey First Issuance of a Storm Surge $125 billion in damage – 68 fatalities Warning in the United States • Deadliest hurricane in Texas since 1919 • Storm surge maximum of 8-10 feet near Rockport • Meandering track after landfall led to historic rainfall – Over 60 inches! • 57 total tornadoes from Texas to Tennessee 2 Quick Transition from Wind/Surge Storm Surge Warning to Inland Flooding Threat Hurricane Harvey Focus on Impacts and Hazards Record Setting Rainfall Rainfall & Flooding 60.58 inches of rain at Nederland, TX broke the U.S. tropical cyclone rainfall record of 52 inches set in Hawaii in 1950. • Potential for extreme rainfall well forecast • NHC began mentioning potential for heavy rainfall a day before Harvey regenerated in the Gulf (3 days prior to landfall) Hurricane Irma Hurricane Irma 5 days before landfall Actual • Category 4 landfall in the Florida Keys • Category 3 landfall in SW Florida • Significant surge damage in Florida Keys, and wind impacts across much of the state 3 Storm Surge Highly Sensitive to Track! Significant Storm Surge Impacts Irma 2017 Far from the Center Observed Track Ft. Myers Beach & Simulated Forecast Track & Storm Surge Sanibel Is. Simulated Miami Storm Surge a Day Before Landfall ~30 nm Miami ~50,000 people ~200,000 people with 3+ foot surge with 3+ foot surge Jacksonville, FL Credit: CBS News Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map Hurricane Irma Over Eighty Indirect Deaths in Florida Shows height above ground that the water could reach • Available when a hurricane watch or warning is in effect for the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the United states (about 48 hours Most frequent factors: cardiovascular, loss of electricity, before winds begin on the coast) vehicle accident, and evacuation Hurricane Maria Hurricane Maria Consistent NHC Forecasts Every NHC forecast predicted landfall in Puerto Rico. All but the first predicted major hurricane intensity • Category 4 landfall in Puerto Rico, but at landfall. category 5 winds likely occurred at some elevated locations • Significant storm surge and devastating rain-induced flooding occurred • Death toll remains highly uncertain 4 Hurricane Florence Hurricane Florence Unexpected Strengthening • Category 4 over the Atlantic • Category 1 landfall in North Carolina • Significant surge damage in portions of eastern North Carolina • Storm slowed producing more than 30 inches of rains in parts of North Carolina Category 1 to 4 in 36 hours – no model suggested this would occur Hurricane Florence Hurricane Florence Intensity Forecast Difficulty In-house 6- and 7-day Forecasts NHC Intensity Forecasts – Florence (2018) NHC Experimental 6- and 7-day forecasts Some long-range forecasts suggested Florence NHC missed period of rapid strengthening and would re-curve over the central Atlantic then over-forecast intensity near landfall Track Forecast Success During Florence’s Approach to the U.S. Record Setting Rainfall Predicted Forecast vs. Observed Rainfall Some long-range forecasts suggested Florence 5-day Rainfall Forecast Observed 5-day Total would re-curve over the central Atlantic 5 Weather Prediction Center Hurricane Michael Excessive Rainfall Graphic Highlights Risk of Flash Flooding More from Greg Carbin later today Comparing Michael and Tracking Hurricane Michael Andrew (1992) Tree Damage Hurricane Andrew Photo courtesy of Getty Images Hurricane Michael Pine Tree Damage in Andrew Photo courtesy of Georgia National Guard Hurricane Andrew Intensity Forecasting Struggles Storm Surge Products Provide NHC Forecasts Major Hurricane but Too Low “Reasonable Worse-Case” Scenario NHC forecast above guidance but not high enough 6 “Officials Warn it Could be Track Forecasts Very Consistent in Storm of the Century” Showing Threat to the Florida Panhandle “Life-threatening wind, surge closing in” Improvements in Track Forecasting Improvements in Track Forecasting 3-day Forecasts in 1990 3-day Forecasts Today 1992 1992 Shrinking Forecast Cone Challenge Communicating Risk Means More Impacts Outside Cone • “This is just a CAT 1 hurricane” • “It has never flooded here before” • “I’ve been through a CAT 3, nothing happened here” • “I saw the new forecast, that GFS thing says it won’t come here, phew!” • “This is the same surge forecast as the last one and I didn’t flood then” • “We are going to evacuate for all CAT1 hurricanes from now on” • “Ah great, I have a GIS map. Finally something accurate” • “We just had our 100 year storm last year” 7 Focus on Hazards & Impacts Key Messages and Social Media Not Track or Category Use of Twitter, Facebook, and Facebook Live to provide live storm updates Focus on Hazards & Impacts Hurricane Preparedness Week Not Track or Category Actionable Daily Themes • Sunday – Determine Your Risk • Every storm is different • Monday – Develop an Evacuation Plan • Must remain focused on • Tuesday – Assemble Disaster Supplies water & wind hazards • Wednesday – Get an Insurance Checkup • Thursday – Strengthen Your Home • NHC probabilistic products • Friday –Help Your Neighbor help decision makers • Saturday – Complete your written hurricane plan • Significant impacts occur far from the center – outside the cone • Share only reliable sources of information Weather Ready Nation Address the “last mile” - connects forecasts to critical emergency management decisions & individual preparedness The Past Accurate, consistent forecast with decision support 8 Weather Ready Nation Questions? Help Us! 9.
Recommended publications
  • 2021 Rio Grande Valley/Deep S. Texas Hurricane Guide

    2021 Rio Grande Valley/Deep S. Texas Hurricane Guide

    The Official Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas HURRICANE GUIDE 2021 IT ONLY TAKES ONE STORM! weather.gov/rgv A Letter to Residents After more than a decade of near-misses, 2020 reminded the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas that hurricanes are still a force to be reckoned with. Hurricane Hanna cut a swath from Padre Island National Seashore in Kenedy County through much of the Rio Grande Valley in late July, leaving nearly $1 billion in agricultural and property damage it its wake. While many may now think that we’ve paid our dues, that sentiment couldn’t be further from the truth! The combination of atmospheric and oceanic patterns favorable for a landfalling hurricane in the Rio Grande Valley/Deep South Texas region can occur in any season, including this one. Residents can use the experience of Hurricane Hanna in 2020 as a great reminder to be prepared in 2021. Hurricanes bring a multitude of hazards including flooding rain, damaging winds, deadly storm surge, and tornadoes. These destructive forces can displace you from your home for months or years, and there are many recent cases in the United States and territories where this has occurred. Hurricane Harvey (2017), Michael (2018, Florida Panhandle), and Laura (2020, southwest Louisiana) are just three such devastating events. This guide can help you and your family get prepared. Learn what to do before, during and after a storm. Your plan should include preparations for your home or business, gathering supplies, ensuring your insurance is up to date, and planning with your family for an evacuation.
  • Report of the Governor's Commission to Rebuild Texas

    Report of the Governor's Commission to Rebuild Texas

    EYE OF THE STORM Report of the Governor’s Commission to Rebuild Texas John Sharp, Commissioner BOARD OF REGENTS Charles W. Schwartz, Chairman Elaine Mendoza, Vice Chairman Phil Adams Robert Albritton Anthony G. Buzbee Morris E. Foster Tim Leach William “Bill” Mahomes Cliff Thomas Ervin Bryant, Student Regent John Sharp, Chancellor NOVEMBER 2018 FOREWORD On September 1 of last year, as Hurricane Harvey began to break up, I traveled from College Station to Austin at the request of Governor Greg Abbott. The Governor asked me to become Commissioner of something he called the Governor’s Commission to Rebuild Texas. The Governor was direct about what he wanted from me and the new commission: “I want you to advocate for our communities, and make sure things get done without delay,” he said. I agreed to undertake this important assignment and set to work immediately. On September 7, the Governor issued a proclamation formally creating the commission, and soon after, the Governor and I began traveling throughout the affected areas seeing for ourselves the incredible destruction the storm inflicted Before the difficulties our communities faced on a swath of Texas larger than New Jersey. because of Harvey fade from memory, it is critical that Since then, my staff and I have worked alongside we examine what happened and how our preparation other state agencies, federal agencies and local for and response to future disasters can be improved. communities across the counties affected by Hurricane In this report, we try to create as clear a picture of Harvey to carry out the difficult process of recovery and Hurricane Harvey as possible.
  • Urbanization Exacerbated the Rainfall and Flooding Caused by Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Allison

    Urbanization Exacerbated the Rainfall and Flooding Caused by Hurricane Harvey and Tropical Storm Allison

    Urbanization exacerbated the rainfall and flooding caused by hurricane Harvey and tropical storm Allison Wei Zhang IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering, University of Iowa, Iowa City Hurricanes are formed in the warm ocean and make landfall over coastal regions occasionally. NASA 2 Hurricanes are warm-core low-pressure systems with destructive winds and torrential rainfall. Harvey in 2017 Katrina in 2005 100+ casualties 1,800+ casualties $125+ billion in damage $160+ billion in damage National Weather Service 3 Harvey stayed in Texas for several days. The reason for its stalling movement is still under investigation. 4 Record-breaking hurricane Harvey poured more than 1 meter rainfall over some parts of Houston. 休斯顿 Houston Stage IV Radar Products 5 Extreme precipitation and flash flooding caused by hurricane Harvey have led to major damages to Houston and surrounding areas. Associated Press CNN 6 Research on Harvey Rainfall (Impacts of anthropogenic forcing) • Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall (Emanuel 2018) • Quantitative attribution of climate effects on Hurricane Harvey's extreme rainfall in Texas (Wang et al. 2018) • Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey, August 2017 (Van Oldenborgh et al. 2018) • Hurricane Harvey links to ocean heat content and climate change adaptation (Trenberth et al. 2018) 7 Climate change increased the probability of Harvey rainfall events. (Van Oldenborgh et al. 2018) 8 Again, climate change increased the probability of Harvey rainfall events. Emanuel, 2017, PNAS But, I examined Harvey rainfall from a different perspective … 9 What was the role played by buildings in Houston in changing the rainfall associated with hurricane Harvey? Before Hurricane Harvey After Hurricane Harvey 10 Oke et al.
  • Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency

    Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency

    Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency February 7, 2020 Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan State of North Carolina For CDBG-DR Funds (Public Law 115-254, Public Law 116-20) Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency This page intentionally left blank. Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency Revision History Version Date Description 1.0 February 7, 2020 Initial Action Plan i Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency This page intentionally left blank. ii Hurricane Florence CDBG-DR Action Plan North Carolina Office of Recovery and Resiliency Table of Contents 1.0 Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 1 2.0 Authority ...................................................................................................... 5 3.0 Recovery Needs Assessment ......................................................................... 7 3.1 Hurricane Florence ............................................................................................... 8 3.2 Summary of Immediate Disaster Impacts ............................................................ 13 3.3 Resilience Solutions and Mitigation Needs .......................................................... 20 3.4 Housing Impact Assessment ................................................................................ 21 3.5 HUD Designated
  • Hurricane Harvey Clean Rivers Program Impact Lessons Learned from Laboratory Flooding Table of Contents

    Hurricane Harvey Clean Rivers Program Impact Lessons Learned from Laboratory Flooding Table of Contents

    Hurricane Harvey Clean Rivers Program Impact Lessons Learned from Laboratory Flooding Table of Contents • Hurricane Harvey General Information • Local River Basin impact • Community Impact • LNVA Laboratory Impact • Lessons Learned General Information Hurricane Harvey Overview General Information • Significantly more info is available online • Wikipedia, RedCross, Weather.GoV, etc • Brief Information • Struck Texas on August 24, 2017 • Stalled, dumped rain, went back to sea • Struck Louisiana on August 29, 2017 • Stalled, dumped rain, finally drifted inland • Some estimates of rainfall are >20 TRILLION gallons General Information • Effect on Texans • 13,000 rescued • 30,000 left homeless • 185,000 homes damaged • 336,000 lost electricity • >$100,000,000,000 in revenue lost • Areas of Houston received flooding that exceeded the 100,000 year flood estimates General Information • On the plus side… • 17% spike in births 9 months after Harvey • Unprecedented real-world drainage modeling • Significant future construction needs identified • IH-10 and many feeder highways already being altered to account for high(er) rainfall events • Many homes being built even higher, above normal 100y and 500Y flood plains River Basin Impact Lower Neches River and surrounding areas River Basin Impact • Downed trees • Providing habitat for fish and ecotone species • Trash • Still finding debris and trash miles inland and tens of feet up in trees • And bones • Oil spills • Still investigating, but likely will not see impact River Basin Impact • The region is used to normal, seasonal flooding • most plants and wildlife are adapted to it • Humans are likely the only species really impacted • And their domestic partners Village Creek, one of the tributaries of the Neches River, had a discharge comparable to that of the Niagra River (i.e.
  • Richmond, VA Hurricanes

    Richmond, VA Hurricanes

    Hurricanes Influencing the Richmond Area Why should residents of the Middle Atlantic states be concerned about hurricanes during the coming hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30? After all, the big ones don't seem to affect the region anymore. Consider the following: The last Category 2 hurricane to make landfall along the U.S. East Coast, north of Florida, was Isabel in 2003. The last Category 3 was Fran in 1996, and the last Category 4 was Hugo in 1989. Meanwhile, ten Category 2 or stronger storms have made landfall along the Gulf Coast between 2004 and 2008. Hurricane history suggests that the Mid-Atlantic's seeming immunity will change as soon as 2009. Hurricane Alley shifts. Past active hurricane cycles, typically lasting 25 to 30 years, have brought many destructive storms to the region, particularly to shore areas. Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk. Extensive coastal development and a rising sea make for increased vulnerability. A storm like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944, a powerful Category 3, would savage shorelines from North Carolina to New England. History suggests that such an event is due. Hurricane Hazel in 1954 came ashore in North Carolina as a Category 4 to directly slam the Mid-Atlantic region. It swirled hurricane-force winds along an interior track of 700 miles, through the Northeast and into Canada. More than 100 people died. Hazel-type wind events occur about every 50 years. Areas north of Florida are particularly susceptible to wind damage.
  • Dear Investors As You May Might Have Heard from Different Media Outlets

    Dear Investors As You May Might Have Heard from Different Media Outlets

    Dear investors As you may might have heard from different media outlets, the east coast of the U.S. is facing a potential threat of landfall of the major hurricane named Florence in the coming days. The storm is currently about 385 miles/620 KM southwest of BERMUDA and about 625 miles/1005 KM southeast of Cape Fear North CAROLINA, moving to the direction of North and South Carolina. The intensity is currently Cat 4, with maximum sustained wind speed very close to 140 mph. As the storm moves to the coast, the wind will intensify to Cat 5 and maximum sustained winds can reach 155 mph. Timing is more difficult to predict now as many meteorologists suggest Florence will slow on approach to the coast, with a possible stalling that could exacerbate the impacts for the area it nears the shore. Catastrophe risk modeller RMS said, “Florence will be the strongest hurricane to make landfall over North Carolina since Hazel in 1954 – this would be a major event for the insurance industry. As with all hurricanes of this intensity, Florence poses significant impacts due to damaging hurricane-force winds and coastal storm surge, but inland flooding is becoming an increasing threat. Forecasts include the possibility of Florence slowing down after landfall and causing as much as 20 inches of rain in the Carolinas. While very significant, this remains much lower than the amount of rainfall observed last year during Hurricane Harvey.” Wind Florence is expected to make landfall as a hurricane between Cat 3 and Cat 4. The wind speed can reach 110-130 mph and central pressure is estimated 962mb.
  • Before the Storm: Forecasting Hurricane Harvey by Samantha De Leon

    Before the Storm: Forecasting Hurricane Harvey by Samantha De Leon

    Before the Storm: Forecasting Hurricane Harvey By Samantha de Leon The mammoth Hurricane Harvey made landfall on the Texas coast around 10:00 p.m. on Friday, August 25, 2017. Photo courtesy of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). or people living in southeastern Texas, hurricanes are That prediction changed dramatically less than twenty- Fguaranteed to make a few appearances. The colossal four hours later on August 24, when the NHC called the storms are inescapable and, in many ways, unpredictable. new forecast “quite concerning.” Overnight, Harvey had For nine years, no hurricanes made landfall in the Houston strengthened and was expected to make landfall the next region after Hurricane Ike, which came ashore at Galveston day as a major Category 3 hurricane (winds 111-129 mph). in 2008. While those summers were calm, each one made Besides strong winds, forecasters expected the storm to Texans like me feel anxious, wondering when the streak bring between fifteen and twenty inches of rainfall and would end. The question was not if another storm would life-threatening floods. Shortly before Harvey’s landfall, the come, but when. NHC released another forecast more severe than the last, The answer came on August 13, 2017, when a large wave predicting up to forty inches of rain and a storm surge up emerged off of the West African coast and moved through to thirteen feet high.2 At this point, it became clear that a the Lesser Antilles. Days later, on the afternoon of August catastrophic storm was headed towards Texas and that our 17, the wave evolved into a tropical storm as it crossed the hurricane drought had ended.
  • Hurricane Florence

    Hurricane Florence

    Hurricane Florence: Building resilience for the new normal April 2019 Contents Foreword 2 An improved and consistent approach is needed to address large concentrations of Executive summary 4 harmful waste located in high hazard areas 23 Section I: The Physical Context 6 Floods contribute to marginalizing vulnerable communities in multiple ways 23 Previous events: Flooding timeline in North Carolina 8 Climate has visibly changed, sea levels have visibly risen, and these Hurricane threat – Can a Category 1 storm trends are likely to continue 23 be more dangerous than a Category 4? 9 Economic motivators can be used as Section II: Socio-Economic levers for both action and inaction 23 Disaster Landscape 10 The Saffir-Simpson Scale is not sufficient Physical Landscape 11 to charaterize potential hurricane impacts 25 Understanding the Risk Landscape 13 Even the best data has limitations and can’t substitute for caution and common sense 25 Socio-Economic Landscape 13 Recovery after Recovery 13 Section V: Recommendations 26 Environmental Risk 14 Now is the time to act – failure to do so will be far more expensive in the long run 27 Coastal Development 15 We need to critically assess where we are Section III: What Happened? 16 building and how we are incentivizing risk 27 Response 17 Shifting from siloed interventions to a holistic approach is key 27 Recovery 17 Change how we communicate risk 27 Section IV: Key Insights 20 Insurance is vital, but it needs to be the Lived experience, even repeat experience, right type of insurance and it should be doesn’t make people take action 21 a last resort 28 As a Nation, we continue to Imagine how bad it could be and plan support high-risk investments and for worse 28 unsustainable development 21 Section VI: Ways Forward 30 Hurricane Florence: Building resilience for the new normal 1 Foreword 2 Hurricane Florence: Building resilience for the new normal When people live through a catastrophic event their experience becomes a milestone moment that colors everything moving forward.
  • Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria of That Year Truly Tested the Capacities of Federal, State, and Local Emer- Gency Management

    Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria of That Year Truly Tested the Capacities of Federal, State, and Local Emer- Gency Management

    distribute or People walk down a flooded street as they evacuate their homes after the area was inundated with flooding from Hurricane Harvey on August 28, 2017 in Houston, Texas. 9post, Joe Raedle/Getty Images HURRICANEScopy, HARVEY, IRMA, not AND MARIA U.S. Disaster Management Challenged Door the United States and its territories, 2017 was a record-breaking hurricane year. It brought F10 hurricanes, which collectively inflicted an estimated $265 billion in damage.1 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria of that year truly tested the capacities of federal, state, and local emer- gency management. During the responses to each, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and its Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) mobilized disaster assistance volunteers, a 351 Copyright ©2020 by SAGE Publications, Inc. This work may not be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means without express written permission of the publisher. 352 Disaster Policy and Politics “surge” workforce2 of volunteering federal workers detailed from inside and outside of the department for up to 45-day assignments, plus an immense and largely corpo- rate contractor force, and the altruistic nonprofit organizations so intrinsically part of disaster response and recovery. A host of other federal agencies, including the U.S. Army, Air Force, and Navy, worked the disasters as well. Impacted states and territories, along with their respective local governments, worked feverishly to address the escalating needs of their victims and communities, while they awaited much needed federal post-disaster assistance. The National Response Framework provided a schematic overlay about how the nation would respond, and the National Incident Management System guided the organization of the actual response in the field.
  • Investigating the Impact of High-Resolution Land–Sea Masks on Hurricane Forecasts in HWRF

    Investigating the Impact of High-Resolution Land–Sea Masks on Hurricane Forecasts in HWRF

    atmosphere Article Investigating the Impact of High-Resolution Land–Sea Masks on Hurricane Forecasts in HWRF Zaizhong Ma 1,2,*, Bin Liu 1,2, Avichal Mehra 1, Ali Abdolali 1,2 , Andre van der Westhuysen 1,2, Saeed Moghimi 3,4 , Sergey Vinogradov 3, Zhan Zhang 1,2, Lin Zhu 1,2, Keqin Wu 1,2, Roshan Shrestha 1,2, Anil Kumar 1,2, Vijay Tallapragada 1 and Nicole Kurkowski 5 1 NWS/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), College Park, MD 20740, USA; [email protected] (B.L.); [email protected] (A.M.); [email protected] (A.A.); [email protected] (A.v.d.W.); [email protected] (Z.Z.); [email protected] (L.Z.); [email protected] (K.W.); [email protected] (R.S.); [email protected] (A.K.); [email protected] (V.T.) 2 I. M. Systems Group, Inc. (IMSG), Rockville, MD 20852, USA 3 NOAA Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; [email protected] (S.M.); [email protected] (S.V.) 4 University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80305, USA 5 NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Received: 8 June 2020; Accepted: 20 August 2020; Published: 22 August 2020 Abstract: Realistic wind information is critical for accurate forecasts of landfalling hurricanes. In order to provide more realistic near-surface wind forecasts of hurricanes over coastal regions, high-resolution land–sea masks are considered.
  • Impact of Compound Flood Event on Coastal Critical

    Impact of Compound Flood Event on Coastal Critical

    1 Impact of Compound Flood Event on Coastal Critical 2 Infrastructures Considering Current and Future Climate 3 Mariam Khanam1, Giulia Sofia1, Marika Koukoula1, Rehenuma Lazin1, Efthymios I. 4 Nikolopoulos2, Xinyi Shen1, and Emmanouil N. Anagnostou1 5 6 1Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269, USA 7 2Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA 8 Correspondence to: Anagnostou, Emmanouil N. ([email protected]) 9 Abstract. The changing climate and anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damages due to compound flood 10 hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides, and 11 exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be 12 significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present 13 case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA). We 14 based the analysis on actual and synthetic (considering future climate conditions for the atmospheric forcing, sea- 15 level rise, and forecasted hurricane tracks) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge 16 combined with tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System (HEC- 17 RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding on selected CI 18 sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather 19 Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System 20 (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS.