eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Harvey Information from NHC Advisory 17, 1:00 PM CDT Thur August 24, 2017 On the forecast track, Harvey will approach the middle Texas coast on Friday and make landfall Friday night or early Saturday, and then stall near the middle Texas coast through the weekend. Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Harvey is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday before it reaches the middle Texas coast.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 85 mph Position Relative to 335 miles SE of Corpus Christi, TX Speed: (Category 1) Land: Middle Texas coast on Est. Time & Region: Friday Min Central Pressure: 979 mb Coordinates: 24.4 N, 93.6 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 90 miles Bearing/Speed: NNW at 10 mph N/A Winds Extent: Wind Speed:

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the Earliest Reasonable Arrival Time both show Harvey continuing north-northwest. ■ Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 12 to 20 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through next Wednesday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 12 inches in far south Texas and the Texas Hill Country to central Louisiana, with accumulations of less than 5 inches extending into other parts of Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley. Rainfall from Harvey may cause life-threatening flooding. ■ The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach the following heights if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide: 6 to 12 ft from Padre Island Natl Seashore to Sargent, 5 to 8 ft Sargent to Jamaica Beach, 5 to 7 ft Port Mansfield to Padre Island Natl Seashore, 2 to 4 ft Jamaica Beach to High Island, 2 to 4 ft Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, 1 to 3 ft High Island to Morgan City ■ Hurricane conditions are likely within the hurricane warning area late Friday or Friday night, with tropical storm conditions expected to first reach the coast in the hurricane warning area Friday. Forecast Track for Hurricane Harvey

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Coastal Watches and Warnings Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, Storm Surge Warnings and Watches, and Hurricane Warnings and Watches are in effect for portions of the southern coast of Texas. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2017 Atlantic Season to Date 2017 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2017 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/24/17) 5 3 0

2016 year to date (1/1/16 – 08/24/17) 5 1 0

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2017 CSU season forecasts 13 6 2 (Colorado State University at June 1,‘17) 2017 NOAA season forecasts 11-17 5-9 2-4 (May25, 2017)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2017 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Harvey is the eighth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Last The graph above shows 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and average year saw seven named storms by August 24, one of which was hurricane Alex – occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It shows, for example, that the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Hurricane Alice of 1955. Harvey became the season’s third hurricane on August 24. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Average Remaining Risk Five Day Tropical Weather Outlook Average Risk Remaining in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season A trough of low pressure near the Florida peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) both peak in thunderstorms extending across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters. Development, if September, as the graph below illustrates. The average remaining percentage of days any, of this system should be slow to occur while it drifts northward to northeastward during the next day or two. Some tropical or subtropical development is possible over the weekend or early next week while the with Atlantic hurricane activity at August 24 is 80% for all hurricanes and 82% for major system moves northeastward over the western Atlantic before it merges with a front. Regardless of hurricanes. development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions of the Florida peninsula during the next few days. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office for more information on this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5) Contact us 50%

Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl40% Matt Nicolai roy.c loutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 +1 (952) 841-6657 30%

20%

10% 2 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec