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Côte D'ivoire Mali COUNTRY REPORT Côte d’Ivoire Mali At a glance: 2001-02 OVERVIEW Despite pressure from the Organisation of African Unity, General Guéï has refused to delay the presidential election any further. It is to be held on October 22nd. General Guéï has announced that he will stand as a candidate. An attack on his residence in September prompted a purge of the military and government. Generals Lassana Palenfo and Abdoulaye Coulibaly have taken refuge in Nigeria after a warrant was issued for their arrest in connection with the attack. Both are suspected of supporting the RDR leader, Alassane Dramane Ouattara. All political activities have now been banned until the official election campaign begins on October 7th. Key changes from last month Political outlook • The presidential election will be held on October 22nd. It is now clear that General Guéï will do everything he can to remain in power. It is therefore unlikely that the contest will be fair or transparent. The outcome of the election may be challenged as a result. Discontent and division are likely to persist in the army, posing a constant threat to the country’s stability. Economic policy outlook • The risk of fiscal slippage will remain extremely high. Discussions with the IMF will not resume before next year. Economic forecast • Activity in both the private and public sectors has remained depressed, and real GDP is now forecast to contract by 1.5% in 2000. It will grow by 3% in 2001 and 5% in 2002, assuming external assistance is resumed. • The exchange rate is now estimated to average CFAfr703.4:US$1 in 2000. October 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St, London SW1Y 4LR United Kingdom The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit is a specialist publisher serving companies establishing and managing operations across national borders. For over 50 years it has been a source of information on business developments, economic and political trends, government regulations and corporate practice worldwide. The EIU delivers its information in four ways: through our digital portfolio, where our latest analysis is updated daily; through printed subscription products ranging from newsletters to annual reference works; through research reports; and by organising conferences and roundtables. The firm is a member of The Economist Group. London New York Hong Kong The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit The Economist Intelligence Unit 15 Regent St The Economist Building 25/F, Dah Sing Financial Centre London 111 West 57th Street 108 Gloucester Road SW1Y 4LR New York Wanchai United Kingdom NY 10019, US Hong Kong Tel: (44.20) 7830 1000 Tel: (1.212) 554 0600 Tel: (852) 2802 7288 Fax: (44.20) 7499 9767 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181/2 Fax: (852) 2802 7638 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.eiu.com Electronic delivery This publication can be viewed by subscribing online at http://store.eiu.com/brdes.html Reports are also available in various other electronic formats, such as CD-ROM, Lotus Notes, online databases and as direct feeds to corporate intranets. For further information, please contact your nearest Economist Intelligence Unit office London: Jan Frost Tel: (44.20) 7830 1183 Fax: (44.20) 7830 1023 New York: Dante Cantu Tel: (1.212) 554 0643 Fax: (1.212) 586 1181 Hong Kong: Amy Ha Tel: (852) 2802 7288/2585 3888 Fax: (852) 2802 7720/7638 Copyright © 2000 The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited. All information in this report is verified to the best of the author’s and the publisher’s ability. However, the EIU does not accept responsibility for any loss arising from reliance on it. ISSN 0969-4730 Symbols for tables “n/a” means not available; “–” means not applicable Printed and distributed by Redhouse Press Ltd, Unit 151, Dartford Trade Park, Dartford, Kent DA1 1QB, UK 1 Contents 3 Summary Côte d’Ivoire 5 Political structure 6 Economic structure 6 Annual indicators 7 Quarterly indicators 8 Outlook for 2001-02 8 Political outlook 10 Economic policy outlook 10 Economic forecast 13 The political scene 19 Economic policy 20 The domestic economy 20 Agriculture 23 Infrastructure 24 Foreign trade and payments Mali 25 Political structure 26 Economic structure 26 Annual indicators 27 Quarterly indicators 28 Outlook for 2001-02 28 Political outlook 29 Economic policy outlook 29 Economic forecast 31 The political scene 33 Economic policy 34 The domestic economy 36 Foreign trade, aid and payments List of tables 11 Côte d’Ivoire: international assumptions summary 12 Côte d’Ivoire: forecast summary 23 Côte d’Ivoire: export crop production, final estimates 30 Mali: forecast summary 34 Mali: national accounts © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 EIU Country Report October 2000 2 37 Mali: current account List of figures 7 Côte d’Ivoire: exchange rate 7 Côte d’Ivoire: foreign reserves 13 Côte d’Ivoire: gross domestic product 13 Côte d’Ivoire: real exchange rates 27 Mali: exchange rate 27 Mali: exports 31 Mali: gross domestic product 31 Mali: real exchange rates EIU Country Report October 2000 © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 3 Summary October 2000 Côte d’Ivoire Outlook for 2001-02 The presidential contest, which the EIU still expects to be held on time despite the current crisis, are likely to be marred by procedural and voting irregularities in favour of General Robert Guéï. There is a strong possibility that the outcome of the election will be challenged as a result. This will fuel social unrest and may delay the legislative election. The current government has failed to implement the IMF’s recommended measures during the transition period and the risk of fiscal slippage is extremely high. Discussions with the IMF are not expected to resume before a legitimate civilian government is back in place in 2001. Activity in both the private and public sectors has remained depressed and real GDP is now forecast to contract by 1.5% in 2000, but is forecast to return to positive growth rates of 3% in 2001 and 5% in 2002. The current- account deficit will hit 8.6% of GDP this year, falling to 6.1% of GDP in 2001 and 4.1% of GDP in 2002, largely reflecting higher exports. The political scene The new constitution has been approved in a popular referendum with 87% of the vote in a 58% turnout. General Robert Guéï has announced that he will run in the presidential election, which has been postponed until October 22nd, as an independent candidate. Most of the main candidates seeking to contest the election have had their eligibility challenged, in particular the RDR leader, Alassane Dramane Ouattara. Soldiers mutinied in July. An attack on General Guéï’s residence in September also prompted a purge in the army and a government reshuffle. General Guéï has rejected the OAU’s call to postpone the presidential election further. Economic policy The IMF raised concern over fiscal slippage and poor governance in its last mid-year review. Progress with structural reforms has been mixed. The state- owned cotton ginnery, CIDT-Nouvelle, has been sold to the main farmers’ co- operative. The call for bids for a 37% stake in the oil refinery, SIR, has been unsuccessful. The domestic economy The transitional government announced new reforms of the cocoa and coffee sector in advance of the 2000/01 marketing season (October-September). Leading exporting groups have continued to invest in new upcountry cocoa bean warehouses and pre-export treatment plants. The US commodities giant, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM), has bought a majority stake in the ailing Ivorian group Sifca, in which it already held a 30% stake. An Anglo-Dutch consortium, led by Dutch P&O Nedlloyd and British Transport and Communications International (TCI), has been awarded a 30-year build- operate-transfer concession to extend the port of Abidjan. © The Economist Intelligence Unit Limited 2000 EIU Country Report October 2000 4 Foreign trade and The government has continued to struggle to meet its obligations on external payments debt, with arrears totalling CFAfr1.6bn with the African Development Bank and CFAfr31.1bn with Agence française de développement. Mali Outlook for 2001-02 With the next round of elections only two years away, political manoeuvring within both the ruling, Adema, and the opposition parties will increase. Corruption issues will also continue to dominate the media and political agenda. The government led by the prime minister, Mandé Sidibé, will continue to show a strong commitment to economic reforms and financial liberalisation. Real GDP growth will remain solid, at around 5% a year. The political scene Infighting within the ruling Adema has increased, as the succession to President Alpha Oumar Konaré, seems increasingly open; the former prime minister, Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta, is losing support for his candidacy. General Amadou Toumani Touré, has yet to announce that he will run in the 2002 presidential election. The opposition has remained divided. Economic policy The IMF has disbursed US$9m under Mali’s three-year poverty reduction and growth facility. An interim poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP) has been made public. Top officials from the cotton parastatal CMDT have been arrested on allegations of fraud. Other cases of corruption have been revealed. The domestic economy The Banque de France has released its annual economic report on Franc Zone countries, and real GDP growth in Mali in 1999 is estimated at 5.3%.
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