Issue 23 – June 2020 Group Strategy, Policy Coordination and Relations JOBURG DEMOGRAPHICS AND KEY SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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Khetho Lomahoza Email: [email protected]
Image: Themarketresearch.com Contents . Population dynamics . Migration . Socio economic indicators . GDP (2010 prices): National vs. City of Johannesburg . Level of Education . Unemployment rate, City of Johannesburg . Human Development Index (HDI): CoJ vs. Regions . Gini coefficient: CoJ vs. Regions . Joburg residents living below the lower poverty line, 2019 . HIV+ estimates by Region, 2019 . Summary
Data was sourced from IHS Markit for all indicators unless specified otherwise POPULATION DYNAMICS
Population: Quick facts • The latest UN world population data shows that world population has reached 7.7 billion, with the world population growth rate currently at 1.05%
• According to the 2019 Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) mid year population estimates, South Africa’s population is estimated to be 58.8 million
• Gauteng comprises the largest share of the South African population, with approximately 15.2 million people (25.8%) living in the province. The Northern Cape has only 1.26 million (2.2%) people living in the province, making it the smallest province by population size
• In 2019, there were an estimated 5.4 million people living in the City of Johannesburg
• The population in the City of Johannesburg increased by 2.35% between 2018 and 2019
• The city’s population represents 9.24% of total population in South Africa
• In 2019, the female population accounted for 49.94% and male population accounted for 50.06% of total city’s population
• The proportion of youth population (15 to 34 years) as a percentage to the City’s total population has shown a downward trend in the last 3 years, declining by 1.85% from 38.6% in 2016 to 36.75% in 2019 Image: daily maverick POPULATION DYNAMICS
Population by race: City of Johannesburg, 2019
5% 5% • In 2019, 80% of the Joburg population 10% comprised Africans followed by the White African population (10%). White • The Coloured and Asian population each accounted for 5% of total population in the city. Coloured Asian
80%
Image: COGTA POPULATION DYNAMICS
Population by CoJ Region, 2019
Region A: Midrand / Diepsloot 800 018, 15% 879 462, 16% Region B: Randburg / Rosebank Region C: Roodepoort 372 485, 7% 716 282, 13% Region D: Soweto
880 873, 16% Region E: Sandton / 559 958, 10% Alexandra Region F: Inner City / Southern Joburg 1 219 886, 23% Region G: Deep South / Ennerdale / Orange Farm
• Region D has the highest population, accounting for 23% of the total population in the City of Johannesburg while Region B has the least number of people living there (7% of total city population) • Region A has shown the highest population growth rate
Image: www.Joburg.org.za compared to other regions in 2019 at 3.28% CASES OF COVID-19 IN THE POPULATION
• Over 100 days since the coronavirus hit South Africa, the country has had to come to terms with a very different reality. Since the easing of Covid-19 lockdown restrictions on 1 June 2020, the rates of new infections have been increasing rapidly • As of 22 June 2020, there were 22 341 reported cases of coronavirus in Gauteng and 122 deaths • Johannesburg has the highest number of coronavirus cases in the province (11 079) • Region F and Region D are the worst affected regions in the city with 2 679 and 1 944 cases respectively • Out of the 11 079 cases, 3 087 have recovered Source: Gauteng Provincial Government MIGRATION
MIGRATION TRENDS
• According to the World Migration Report, in 2019 there were an estimated 272 million international migrants in the world, which accounted for 3.5% of the global population.
• The Census data estimates that there were 2.2 million foreign-born individuals living in South Africa in 2011. StatsSA Mid- year Population Estimates for 2018 indicate that between 2011 and 2016 a net total of 883 364 international migrants entered South Africa. If accurate this might take the South African immigrant population to about 3 million.
• In 2011, there were approximately 507 727 foreign migrants residing in the city. At the time, the population in Johannesburg was estimated to be at around 3.9 million people (Census 2011). This means that only 13.1% of the city’s population in 2011 was foreign-born.
• The majority of foreign migrants in the city (78%) were born in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries (Census 2011). Most foreign migrants are between the ages 31-45, followed by the 15-25 age cohort.
• It is pertinent to note however, that contrary to the popular narrative, internal migrants from South African provinces make up the bulk of Johannesburg’s population expansion. According to the most recent QoL V 2017/18 survey, the numbers are broken down as follows: just over half (58%) of the population were born in Gauteng, 10% have migrated to the city from other countries and nearly a third of the people in the city have come to Johannesburg from other parts of South Africa.
Source: GSPCR Migration Patterns and Urbanization in CoJ Image: freevector.com MIGRATION
MIGRANTS CONTRIBUTION IN ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTIVITIES
• Migrant entrepreneurs in the City of Joburg are mostly in retail or service rather than in production. • According to the 2017/18 Quality of Life (QoL) V findings, within Johannesburg international migrants are twice as likely to report owning a business than respondents born in South Africa. A quarter (25%) of international immigrants reported owning a business. • Moreover more than a third (34%) of international migrants’ businesses are in the formal sector, meaning that these businesses are registered and contribute either income tax or VAT
Source: 2017/18 QoL V SOCIO ECONOMICS INDICATORS
GDP (2010 prices): National vs. City of Johannesburg 3.50%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.50%
1.00%
0.50%
0.00% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 National growth rate City of Johannesburg growth rate
• The city’s GDP growth rates have mirrored the downward trend of national GDP. • Between 2011 and 2019, the highest GDP growth rate in the city was recorded in 2013 (2.72%). Since then GDP growth rates declined substantially with the city only recording a meagre 0.86% in 2019 • In 2019, the city’s real GDP grew 0.7% faster than the national real GDP which was only 0.15% Image: financialexpress.com SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Level of Education 1 600 000
1 400 000 1 296 504 1 340 130 1 206 829 1 247 228 1 200 000 1 162 077 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 246 820 250 269 261 508 272 908 286 044 200 000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Matric only Matric & Bachelors degree Linear (Matric only)
• The number of people in the city with only a matric qualification has been increasing over the past 5 years, increasing from 1.16 million to 1.34 million people in 2015 and 2019 respectively • The number of people with matric and bachelors degrees has also been increasing over time, rising by 4.81% from 2018 to 2019
Image:UTEP connect SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Unemployment rate %, City of Johannesburg 34.0
32.7 32.7 33.0 32.4
32.0 30.7 31.0
30.0 29.8 29.2 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.5
28.0
27.0
26.0
25.0 Q1_ 2018 Q2_ 2018 Q3_ 2018 Q4_ 2018 Q1_ 2019 Q2_ 2019 Q3_ 2019 Q4_ 2019 Q1_ 2020
• There has been an upward trend in the unemployment rate in the City of Joburg between 2018 and 2019 (illustrated by the red line in the diagram above). The unemployment rate increased from 28.8% in the first quarter of 2018 to 32.7% in Image: IOL the first quarter of 2020 Data source: StastsSA Quarterly Labor Force Survey (QLFS), various periods SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2019 HDI: CoJ vs. Regions The HDI is an index that combines 0.81 three basic dimensions of human 0.72 0.73 0.75 0.77 0.74 development: A long and healthy 0.67 0.62 life, knowledge, and a decent standard of living.
A maximum value of 1 indicates a very high level of human development, while the minimum value of 0 indicates no human
JHB City of Region A: Region B: Region C: Region D: Region E: Region F: Inner Region G: Deep development. Johannesburg Midrand / Randburg / Roodepoort Soweto Sandton / City / Southern South / Diepsloot Rosebank Alexandra Joburg Ennerdale / Orange Farm
• In 2019, the HDI in the City of Johannesburg was at 0.72 compared to 0.67 in 2009 indicating that there has been a slight improvement in the level of human development in the city over the past 10 years. • At 0.67 and 0.62 respectively, Region D and Region G are the only 2 regions in the city whose HDI is below that of the City of Johannesburg (0.72). • Region B has the highest HDI (0.81) across all regions Image:constructionreviewonline.com The Gini coefficient is a summary statistic of income inequality. It varies from 0 to 1. If the SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS Gini co-efficient is equal to zero, income is distributed in a perfectly equal manner, in other words there is no variance between the high and low income earners within the population. In contrast, if the Gini co-efficient 2019 Gini coefficient: CoJ vs. Regions equals 1, income is completely inequitable
0.63 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.59 0.59 0.59
0.55
JHB City of Region A: Region B: Region C: Region D: Region E: Region F: Inner Region G: Deep Johannesburg Midrand / Randburg / Roodepoort Soweto Sandton / City / Southern South / Diepsloot Rosebank Alexandra Joburg Ennerdale / Orange Farm
• There has not been significant improvement in the inequality levels in the city in the past 10 years. This is illustrated by the Gini coefficient which is currently at 0.62 relative to what it was in 2009 (0.62) • At 0.63, region A is the only region out of the 7 regions that has a Gini coefficient higher, and therefore more unequal, than that of the City of Johannesburg • Region B which has a Gini coefficient of 0.55 is the most equal region compared to other regions in the City of Johannesburg Image: IOL SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Joburg residents living below the lower poverty line (StatsSA defined), 2019 2 000 000 5.00% • In 2019, the City of Joburg had 4.72% 1 760 053 1 800 000 4.45% 4.50% 1.76 million people living below 4.31% the lower poverty line, an 1 600 000 3.93% 3.98% 3.96% 4.00% increase of 3.7% from 2018 1 400 000 3.70% 3.50% • Region B had the least number of people living below the lower 1 200 000 3.00% poverty line (55 717) 1 000 000 2.55% 2.50% • Region D had the lowest growth 800 000 2.00% (2.55%) but also the highest number of people living below 600 000 501 813 1.50% 374 527 the lower poverty line. 400 000 1.00% 267 488 239 897 190 804 200 000 129 808 0.50% 55 717 0 0.00% JHB City of Region A: Region B: Region C: Region D: Region E: Region F: Region G: Johannesburg Midrand / Randburg / Roodepoort Soweto Sandton / Inner City / Deep South / Diepsloot Rosebank Alexandra Southern Ennerdale / Joburg Orange Farm
Image: Daily maverick SOCIO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
HIV+ estimates by Region
Region A: Midrand / Diepsloot
Region B: Randburg / Rosebank 13.35% 15.40%
Region C: Roodepoort
14.65% 9.58% Region D: Soweto
Region E: Sandton / Alexandra 13.19% 13.32% Region F: Inner City / Southern Joburg 17.16% Region G: Deep South / Ennerdale / Orange Farm
• The number of people living with HIV in the city reached 783 040 in 2019, from just 549 989 in 2009. • Region D has the highest percentage of its population living with HIV, accounting for 17.16%, followed by Region A (15.4%) and Region F (14.65%). • The number of AIDS related deaths reported in the City of Johannesburg has declined by 4.47% from 11,077 in 2018 to 10,582 in 2019 Image: institute of tropical medicine SUMMARY
The analysis demonstrated the latest trends in demographics and socio economic indicators of the City of Johannesburg. The key findings are summarised below:
- CoJ GDP growth rate GDP growth rates have been low in the past 8 years with the city only recording a meagre 0.86% GDP growth in 2019
- CoJ Gini coefficient Johannesburg is still regarded as an unequal city. This is illustrated by the Gini coefficient which is currently at 0.62
- CoJ HDI HDI in the City of Johannesburg is relatively high (0.72) and has improved over the past 10 years.
- Number of CoJ population with Matric or above The number of people with matric and bachelors degrees has been increasing over time. In 2019, 286 044 of Joburg residents had post matric degrees
- % CoJ unemployment rate The unemployment rate has been rising and as of the first quarter of 2020 was 32.7% SUMMARY
- % CoJ population living below the poverty line 32.42% of the Joburg population were living below the lower poverty line in 2019. This has increased over time.
- CoJ population and health In 2019, 14.42% of the CoJ population were living with HIV. This has been increasing over time. As of 22 June 2020, 11 079 confirmed cases of coronavirus with 3 087 recoveries were reported in Johannesburg.
- Regions A-G population as % of CoJ total Region A: Midrand / Diepsloot 16.20% Region B: Randburg / Rosebank 6.86% Region C: Roodepoort 16.23% Region D: Soweto 22.47% Region E: Sandton / Alexandra 10.31% Region F: Inner City / Southern Joburg 13.19% Region G: Deep South / Ennerdale / Orange 14.74% Farm
- Foreign migrant population as % of CoJ total (2011) Only 13.1% of the city’s population in 2011 were foreign-born