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Province of Kwazulu-Natal PROVINCE OF KWAZULU-NATAL Socio-Economic Review and Outlook 2019/2020 KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Government ISBN: ISBN No. 1-920041-43-5 To obtain further copies of this document, please contact: Provincial Treasury 5th Floor Treasury House 145 Chief Albert Luthuli Road 3201 P.O. Box 3613 Pietermaritzburg 3200 Tel: +27 (0) 33 – 897 4444 Fax: +27 (0) 33 – 897 4580 Table of Contents Executive Summary Chapter 1: Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Demographic Profile ...................................................................................................... 3 2.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………... 3 2.2 Global population growth ............................................................................................. 4 2.3 South African population ............................................................................................. 7 2.4 Population growth rate……………………………………………………………… .......... 8 2.4.1 Population distribution by age and gender ............................................................... 8 2.4.2 Population by race…………………………………………………………………… ...... 9 2.5 Fertility, mortality, life expectancy and migration……………………………… .............. 10 2.5.1 Fertility…………………………………………………………………………….. ............ 11 2.5.2 Mortality………………………………………………………………………………… ..... 13 2.5.3 Life expectancy……………………………………………………………………… ........ 16 2.5.4 Migration…………………………………………………………………………… ........... 17 2.6 Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………… ........... 18 Chapter 3: Development Indicators ................................................................................................... 21 3.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….. ......... 21 3.2 Poverty………………………………………………………………………………….. ........ 21 3.3 Household income and income inequality .................................................................... 24 3.4 Human development .................................................................................................... 25 3.5 Grant beneficiaries ....................................................................................................... 26 3.6 Education ..................................................................................................................... 28 3.6.1 School and educator: learner ratio ............................................................................ 29 3.6.2 Literacy rate and matric results ................................................................................. 30 3.6.3 School drop-out rate………………………………………………………………………. 35 3.7 Health ........................................................................................................................... 36 3.7.1 Causes of death and Burden of disease……………………………………………….. .37 3.7.1.1 Tuberculosis (TB) ................................................................................................... 38 3.7.1.2 Human Immunodeficiency Virus……………………………………………………… . 39 3.8 Crime ............................................................................................................................ 39 3.9 Access to basic services .............................................................................................. 41 i 3.9.1 Access to electricity ................................................................................................... 41 3.9.2 Access to water and sanitation .................................................................................. 42 3.10 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 43 Chapter 4: Economic Review and Outlook ....................................................................................... 45 4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 45 4.2 Global economic review and outlook ............................................................................ 46 4.3 South African economic review and outlook................................................................. 50 4.3.1 Inflation and Monetary policy......................................................................................54 4.4 KZN economic review and outlook ............................................................................... 58 4.5 Sector Performance and Contribution to GDP ............................................................ 60 4.6 Gross Fixed Capital Formation .................................................................................... 63 4.7 Travel and tourism........................................................................................................ 67 4.7.1 World travel and tourism .......................................................................................... 67 4.7.2 Travel and tourism in SA .......................................................................................... 68 4.7.2.1 Visitor exports and investment ............................................................................... 70 4.7.3. Travel and tourism in KZN…………………………………………………………. ....... 71 4.7.3.1 Total tourism spend as a percentage of GDP in KZN…………………………… ..... 72 4.7.3.2 Tourists visiting KZN by country of origin…………………………… ........................ 73 4.8 International trade ....................................................................................................... 73 4.8.1 Trade tension between the US and China ............................................................... 75 4.8.2 Trade tension and its effect to SA ............................................................................ 76 4.8.3 Current account of the balance of payments ............................................................. 76 4.8.4 International commodity of prices .............................................................................. 77 4.8.5 South Africa and KwaZulu-Natal exports.................................................................. 79 4.8.6 South Africa and KwaZulu-Natal imports ................................................................. 80 4.9 Conclusion and policy recommendations ……………………………………………… ... 81 Chapter 5: Labour Markets… ............................................................................................................. 83 5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 83 5.2 National labour dynamics ............................................................................................. 83 5.2.1 Employment by industries ......................................................................................... 84 5.2.2 Unemployment .......................................................................................................... 85 5.2.3. Unemployment by age and gender .......................................................................... 86 5.3. Provincial labour dynamics .......................................................................................... 87 ii 5.3.1 Employment by industries in KwaZulu-Natal ............................................................. 89 5.3.2 Unemployment in KwaZulu-Natal ............................................................................. 90 5.4 Labour dynamics for district municipalities .............................................................. .…91 5.4.1 Employment for district municipalities ...................................................................... 91 5.4.1.1 Employment by industries for district municipalities .............................................. 92 5.4.2 Unemployment by district municipalities……………………………………………….. .. 93 5.5 Labour force participation rate…………………………………………………………….. .. 94 5.6 Labour absorption rate…………………………………………………………………… ..... 95 5.7 Job scarcity in KwaZulu-Natal and district municipalities………………………………… ... 96 5.8 Labour remuneration and productivity in KwaZulu-Natal………………………………….97 5.9 Conclusion …………………………………………………………………………………… . 98 Appendix A: List of additional Figures and Tables ............................................................................. 99 References…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. ........ 113 iii List of Tables Table 2.1: World population and selected countries in 2018 and 2050…………………………………… 5 Table 2.2: South African population by province in 2006, 2011 and 2018………………………………...7 Table 2.3: National annual population growth rate (percentage), 2009 to 2018………………………..... 8 Table 2.4: Fertility, mortality and life expectancy in KZN, 2011 to 2021…………………………………...11 Table 2.5: Migration trends in KZN, 2011 to 2021…………………………………………………………… 17 Table 3.1: Income distribution by proportion of households in KZN, 2017………………………………...24 Table 3.2: Number and proportion of grant beneficiaries as at the end of December 2018……………. 27 Table 3.3: Learner-educator ratio (LER) and learner-school ratio (LSR) by provinces, 2011 and 2016………………………………………………………………………..... 30 Table 3.4: KZN’s levels of education for individuals at age 20+, 2007 and 2017…………………………31 Table 3.5: Number of learners wrote and achieved NSC, 2017 and 2018………………………………...32 Table 3.6: Percentage of passes by school (quantile) categories, 2018 ……………………………........ 33 Table 3.7: Percentage of learners who achieved 30 per cent and above in selected subjects, 2017 and 2018………………………………………………………………… 33 Table 3.8: NSC performance
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