ALERT LEVEL: NO ALERT MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE WATCH WARNING AUGUST 2005 EMERGENCY

CONTENTS SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS The growing season is still going well. For the most part, there is a good spatial Food security conditions...... 1 distribution of rainfall and most areas are beginning to see stream flow Progress of the 2005/06 growing season ...... 1 conditions conducive to good crop growth and development. Heavy rains in Markets ...... 4 the second dekad of August helped produce another flood wave on waterways around the country.

In addition to the problems engendered by steadily rising grain prices and the scarcity of grain crops on markets in both urban and rural areas, food security declined slightly due to flooding in most of the country, caused by heavy rains. SEASONAL CALENDAR

CURRENT HAZARD SUMMARY • The food situation is still problematic in rural areas, and there is still extremely heavy pressure on household income with the steady upward movement in grain prices and the damage caused by flooding in the wake of heavy rainfall around the middle of the month. • The food situation for the animal population is back to normal in all parts of the country. • The plant health situation is calm at the country-wide level. FOOD SECURITY CONDITIONS Midway into the growing season, the food situation in rural areas is still problematic and will remain so until the first round of harvests sometime in the second half of September. The problem of the depletion of virtually all household resources has been further compounded by the damage caused by flooding in the wake of the heavy rains battering the entire country.

Coarse grain reserves (souna millet, maize and sorghum) are at their lowest level of the year. Right now, imported rice accounts for a large part of the diet of the country’s rural population, and the volume of imports is on the rise.

In what are primarily livestock-raising areas, with the emergence of new herbaceous vegetation suitable for grazing all types of ruminants, the income of pastoralists and their families has increased with the improvement in milk production and in the condition of fattened animals, which are bringing in better prices. PROGRESS OF THE 2005/06 GROWING SEASON The growing season is still going well. For the most part, there is a good spatial distribution of rainfall, and most areas are beginning to see streamflow conditions conducive to good crop growth and development.

Above-average rainfall totals have been reported at most of the gauging stations tracked by the National

FEWS NET/Senegal Tel : +221 820 18 60 Address : BP29955 Aéroport FEWS NET is funded by the US Agency for International Development Fax : + 221 820 18 65 L.S.Senghor Code Postal 14542 www.fews.net E-mail: [email protected] Dakar Senegal

SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE August 2005

Weather Service. There have been no reports of any drought conditions liable to cause any major crop losses.

Heavy precipitation was reported over the week-long period from August 15 - August 21, with a fairly regular spatial distribution of rainfall. The level of rainfall was the same in the northern and southern parts of the country, with the heaviest precipitation reported in the west, along the Atlantic Coast (204 mm in Mbour, 188 mm in Dakar, 238 mm in Ziguinchor and 170 mm in Cap Skiring). These heavy rains caused severe flooding in many areas, particularly in the Dakar Metropolitan Area, where there were reports of major damage.

Crop water supplies are adequate and soil water reserves are at their peak in many areas, as confirmed by the soil water index (Map 1) and crop water satisfaction index for the second dekad of August (Map 2).

Seasonal cumulative rainfall totals as of August 21 were up around 1000 mm in the . The lowest reported rainfall amount was 169 mm, in Louga.

Rainfall totals are above-normal in the northern and central parts of the country. Rainfall conditions in the southern part of the country are normal.

Map 1: Soil water index Map 2: Crop water satisfaction index

Graphic by FEWS NET Senegal Graphic by FEWS NET Senegal Source of data: NOAA/USGS Source of data: NOAA/USGS

Status of crops

A look at the progress of crop growth and development shows crops in all different stages of development. Millet crops are in anywhere from the early height growth stage to the early fruit formation stage in the , in the tillering – height growth – heading stages in the Ziguinchor and southern Kolda regions, in the tillering – height growth – early heading stages in the Groundnut Basin and in the tillering – height growth stages in the north.

Sorghum crops in all parts of the country are in the tillering – height growth stages of development. Maize crops in farming areas are in the height growth – heading stages, and farmers in the eastern part of the country are already beginning to harvest green maize crops.

Groundnut crops are in anywhere from the plantlet to the gynophore development stage, depending on the area and the timing of planting activities. Cotton crops are in the branching and early flowering stages in the

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SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE August 2005 east, the flowering and capsule formation stages in the south and the plantlet – branching stages in the south-central part of the country. Cowpea crops in all parts of the country are in the leaf formation and branching stages. Rice crops in the east and south are in the plantlet to height growth stages and crops in the north are in the transplanting stage.

Streamflow conditions

The heavy rainfall in the second dekad of August helped produce another wave of flooding on waterways around the country.

All gauging stations along the Senegal River reported a rise in the level of the river. The reported rate of flow at the Bakel station in the second dekad of August was up to 1080 m3/s, compared with 735 m3/s at the same time last year.

The flood wave produced early in the month at the Kidira station on the Falémé continued to propagate itself, where the rate of flow for the second dekad of August was 250 m3/s compared with 173 m3/s at the same time last year. The average rate of flow for this ten-day span is 294 m3/s.

The flood wave produced in mid-August at the Kédougou station on the Gambia River brought the rate of flow for the second dekad of the month up to 283 m3/s, versus 238 m3/s in August of last year. The average rate of flow for this ten-day period is 272 m3/s.

The water level at the Kolda station on the Casamance River had been fluctuating widely. However, the level of the river finally began to rise towards the end of the second dekad of the month. The gauge height was 196 cm on August 20th. The maximum daily mean gage height for the same time last year was 206 cm.

Conditions in livestock-raising areas

The food situation for the animal population has finally Map 3: Vegetation index for the second dekad normalized in all parts of the country (Map 3). There is new of August 2005. herbaceous vegetative growth in all areas of the country suitable for grazing all types of ruminants. However, this new plant cover is at different stages of development in different areas, ranging from the early height growth stage to the full height growth/heading stage in the case of grasses and from the early flowering to the full flowering stage in the case of pulses.

Animals around the country are being watered at temporary lakes and ponds. The water level of these seasonal watering holes varies from area to area, ranging from half- full in certain areas in the central and northern parts of the country to nearly full in the south and southeast.

Graphic by FEWS NET Senegal By now, migratory animal herds are once again ensconced Source of data: NOAA /USGS in rainy season grazing areas.

Livestock markets are beginning to report an influx of slaughtered animals in rather good condition.

Plant health conditions

Plant health conditions are calm in all parts of the country despite sightings of hairy caterpillars. Cowpea,

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SENEGAL: MONTHLY FOOD SECURITY UPDATE August 2005 groundnut and bissap crops in the Thiès and Louga regions and department are infested with Amsacta moloneyi, or hairy caterpillars, with densities of 10 to 20 insects per square meter.

Grain crops and fallow fields in Kolda (in Djibabouya and Bounkiling districts and throughout Sédhiou department) are infested with Spodoptera littoralis caterpillars.

Village pest control committees (CLV) are in the process of treating crops with powder, with the assistance of Crop Protection Units (UPV).

Widespread infestations of crops in Louga and Kébémer departments with the groundnut aphid Aphis cracivora were brought under control by the heavy rains and access to the adult stage of these crop predators. There were also sightings of flower-eating insects feeding on souna millet crops in the heading stage in a 165 hectare area in Médina Yoro Foulah (in the ). MARKETS

Supplies on rural markets are anywhere from Figure 1: Trends in the average retail price of millet in regional fair to low. Trader inventories are still relatively capitals since June of 2003 (through August 21, 2005) large thanks to grain imports (rice and maize). DAKAR KOLDA KAOLACK LOUGA SAINT-LOUIS TAMBA ZIGUINCHOR

The lean period continues for the country’s 250 rural population. Prices have been steadily climbing since last month, with current market 225 prices ranging from 186 CFAF/kg in Kaolack 200 to 242 CFAF/kg in Saint-Louis. There were 175 reports of large hikes in prices between July 150 and August on a number of markets such as Prix (FCFA/Kg) 125 Kolda, where prices jumped from 175 to 233 CFAF/kg, or by 33.3%, and Saint-Louis, where 100 prices surged from 208 to 242 CFAF/kg, or by 75

16.2% (Figure 1). 50 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 03 04 0 04 05 0 _ _0 _ _ _0 _ T_0 T_0 V N S_04 T_0 T_0 V N S_05 C O EC R AI_ C O EC R AI_ JUIN_03JUIL_03 EP O N D JA FEV_04 M JUIN_04JUIL_04 EP O N D JA FEV_05 M JUIN_05JUIL_05 Since last month, retail prices for millet in AOUT_03S MA AVRIL_04 AOUT_04S MA AVRIL_05 AOUT_05 Louga have been running above 2002 record Source: CSA (Food Security Commission), SIM (Market Information System), FEWS NET price levels for the past five years (Figure 2). Figure 2: Trends in the average retail price of millet on the

Louga Market (through August 21, 2005) The average rise in prices is somewhere 2002 2003 2004 2005 MOYENNE 2000_2004 around 38% above the average for the last 250 five years, with the smallest jump (24.3%) reported in Fatick and the largest jump 225

(48.6%) in Kolda. 200

Prices are also up on rural markets, with 175 Porokhane (185 CFAF/kg) showing the lowest 150 price levels and Mpal in the Saint-Louis region PRIX (FCFA/Kg) (238 CFAF/kg) posting the highest prices. 125 Millet prices in Passy are up to 200 CFAF/kg, 100 which is generally one of the rural markets with the most affordable grain prices. 75 JAN FEV MAR AVR MAI JUIN JUIL AOUT SEPT OCT NOV DEC

Moyenne 2000-04 = Average 2000-04 Source: CSA (Food Security Commission), SIM (Market Information System), FEWS NET

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