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3.7 Urban Disaster Risk Reduction
3.7.1 Overall Situation of Disaster Risk Reduction
(1) Disasters in Senegal and the Study Area According to EM-DAT27, the past disasters in Senegal are summarized as shown in Table 3.7.1. The most frequently occurring disaster from a historical point of view is droughts, followed by flooding.
Table 3.7.1 Historical Disasters in Senegal (1900–2013) Number of Total number Total number Total amount of damage Type of disaster occurrences killed affected (1,000 US$) Natural Disaster Drought 25 0 8,398,998 N/A Flood 18 72 1,158,919 54,385 Wind Storm 3 189 96,853 N/A Wave/Surge 1 0 2,000 50 Epidemic 9 507 13,415 N/A Insect Infestation 5 N/A N/A N/A Man-made Disaster Industrial Accident 2 100 730 18,700 Misc. Accident 2 28 150 N/A Remarks: Traffic accidents are not included. Source: EM-DAT1 The disasters in the Study Area, which are listed in various sources, are shown in Table 3.7.2. Flooding is the most major natural disaster that occurs in the Study Area. It has been reported that after 2005, there have been frequent floods in Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments. It should be noted that there were also man-made disasters that resulted in a relatively large number of deaths in the Study Area. Although not recorded in Table 3.7.2, coastal hazards such as coastal erosion and coastal flooding during an extreme storm event have been recognized as among the major hazards in the Study Area in previous studies28, 29. In the present study, the flood hazard and coastal hazard are discussed in detail in the following sections.
27 The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, Universite Catholique de Louvain — Brussels (http://www.emdat.be). 28 World Bank, Preparing to Manage Natural Hazards and Climate Change Risks in Dakar, Senegal, A Spatial and Institutional Approach, 2009. 29 GFDRR-World Bank, Disaster Risk Management Programs for Priority Countries, 2011.
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Table 3.7.2 Past Disasters in the Study Area Number of Amount of Type of Year/ Region killed and damage Remarks Source disaster Month missing (1000 US$) Flood 1989/8 Dakar N/A N/A Mbow et al. Flood 1995/8 Dakar N/A N/A Mbow et al. Flood 2005/8 Saint-Louis, Joal, Kaolack, DPC Fatick, Pikine and 30 N/A Affected 18,314 Guédiawaye (Dakar) Rufisque, Pikine, EM-DAT 0 N/A Affected 50,000 Guédiawaye (Dakar) Flood 2008/9 Dakar, Thies, Diourbel, FL-2008-000160- GLIDE N/A N/A Saint-Louis, Kaolack SEN Flood 2009/8 N/A N/A N/A DPC Dakar, Saint-Louis, Kaolack 6 N/A Affected 264,000 EM-DAT Dakar and entire country 82 mil US$ Affected 360,000 PDNA N/A (Dakar) (Dakar) Almost all suburbs of Dakar FL-2009-000164- GLIDE N/A N/A SEN Flood 2012/8 Dakar, Thiès, Saint-Louis 26 NA 275,000 homeless DPC N/A 19 10 mil US$ N/A EM-DAT St. Louis, Bambey, Dakar FL-2012-000169- GLIDE N/A N/A SEN Flood 2013/9 Fatick, Kaolack, Thies, Dakar 8 N/A Affected 163,306 EM-DAT Epidemic 2004 Pikine, Guédiawaye, etc. 117 N/A Cholera EM-DAT Industrial 1992 Bel Air (Dakar) SONACOS DPC 30 N/A Accident explosion Near Dakar 100 18,700 Tank explosion EM-DAT Misc. 1993/9 Kermel market (Dakar) DPC N/A N/A Market fire Accident Source: 1) EM-DAT1 2) Mbow et al.30 3) DPC31, 4) GLIDE32, 5) PDNA (Post-Disaster Needs Assessment )33
(2) Policy Framework Disaster risk management (DRM) in Senegal considers the entire disaster cycle, including prevention, preparation, response, recovery and reconstruction34. The Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRSP-II, 2006– 2010 and PRSP-III, 2011–2015) have considered disaster risk management as an important element. In the National Strategy for Economic and Social Development (NSESD, 2013–2017)35, risk and disaster’s prevention and management was set as one of the elements in Pillar 2: Human Resources, Social Welfare and Sustainable Development. The strategic objectives and actions on DRM are shown in Table 3.7.3.
30 Mbow et al., Urban sprawl development and flooding at Yeumbeul suburbs (Dakar-Senegal), African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 2 (4), pp.75–88, 2008. 31 DPC, Les risques et catastrophes majeurs au Sénégal; DPC Presentat report (2013), p. 15. 32 GLIDE, http://glidenumber.net/glide/public/search/search.jsp. 33 PDNA, Evaluation des besoins post catastrophe inondations urbaines à Dakar, 2009. 34 DPC, Presentation material. 35 NSESD 2013–2017, National Strategy for Economic and Social Development, 2012.
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Table 3.7.3 Strategic Objectives and Actions on DRM in NSESD (2013–2017) Strategic Objectives Actions Prevent and reduce major disaster Improve natural disaster management risk Preparation and implementation of a specific intervention plan Improve the management of Instituting an emergency intervention fund natural disasters Setting up a mechanism for the assistance and compensation of disaster victims Setting up a multi-sectorial crisis management body Strengthening the capacity of civil protection actors Preventing and reducing major disaster risks Stepping up security for the transportation of hazardous materials Construction and equipment in infrastructure for civil protection actors Displacement of populations installed in high-risk areas Development of contingency plans at national and regional levels (P) Curbing major industrial accidents Setting up an early warning system for natural disasters Operationalizing the multi-sectorial platform for disaster risk reduction Promoting the culture of disaster risk prevention and management (P) Remarks: (P) indicates a priority action. Source: NSESD (2013–2017)
(3) Institutional Framework The institutional set-up for disaster risk management in Senegal is shown in Figure 3.7.1. The national platform, which was established in 2008, is responsible for promoting the integration of DRM into national development policies, plans and strategies. The Directorate of Civil Protection (DPC) under the Ministry of Interior is the agency responsible for the coordination of DRM activities in Senegal. DPC acts as the secretariat of the national platform for the prevention and reduction of major disaster risks.
Government
Higher Commisision Ministries of Civil Protection National (Sector Competence) Platform for RRC
Regional Commissions of Civil Civil Defense National Fire Protection(Govermors) Directorate (DPC) Brigade (BNSP)
Auxiliary Commissions of Civil Protection(Prefects) Other ・Local Authorities ・Org.Emplpyers
Source: DPC Figure 3.7.1 Institutional Set-up for Disaster Risk Management in Senegal
The missions of DPC are as follows: 1) the prevention of all kinds of disaster risk and protection of people, 2) the safeguarding of property and 3) environmental conservation as protection against disasters and catastrophes. DPC is responsible for 1) drafting text for civil protection; 2) overall design of emergency plans and contingency plans; 3) the inspection and monitoring of the implementation of security measures in public buildings, classified establishments and tall buildings; 4) training, information and awareness of disaster risk; 5) management of resources for emergency activities and 6) monitoring the relations of bilateral and multilateral cooperation. The organizational structure of DPC
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Civil Defense Directorat
Permanent Secretariat of the Higher Commission of Civil Protection
Studies Division of Civil Administrative and Training Center and Defense Operations Financial Division Improvement of Civil Protection
Office of classified Office Manager Studies Division of establishments Training and Research Office of the plans and Office of the the mobilizations Accountant materials
Relations Office Commissions and with OIPC Source: DPC Figure 3.7.2 Organizational Structure of DPC
The National Fire Brigade (BNSP) is responsible for relief activities during emergency situations that threaten public safety. It is divided into five groups by region. Dakar Region is managed by Group 1, and the Thiès and Diourbel Regions are managed by Group 2. There is a branch office in each of the departments of Dakar, Pikine, Guédiawaye and Rufisque. Each branch office has about 120 fire brigade members.
(4) Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project The Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project (DRM Plan) in Senegal is a comprehensive package of support for the Government of Senegal, supported by the World Bank. The outline of the project is shown in Table 3.7.4.
Table 3.7.4 Outline of the DRM Plan Project Title Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project (DRM Plan) (Phase 1) Duration 2012–2014 Implementing DPC (3 years) Agency Required 1.4 mil. US$ Fund Source World Bank Budget Component A. Institutional review to optimize the DRM system/mechanism B. Diagnosis and creation of an early warning system (EWS), with an initial focus on floods C. Strengthening of preparedness and response mechanisms, with an initial focus on floods D. Capacity building of DPC and project management Remarks: Phase 2 (2014–2017) of the project is pending, with required funds of 3.6 mil. US$. Source: World Bank36
36 World Bank, Project Appraisal Document, Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project (Phase1), 2011.
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3.7.2 Flood Hazard
(1) Existing Drainage System and Drainage Master Plans in the Study Area The overall situations of the existing drainage system and the drainage master plans in the Study Area are shown in Figure 3.7.3. Except in Dakar Department and the urban area of Rufisque, there has been almost no systematic drainage developed. After the severe flood in 2009, the drainage master plan for Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments (PDD 37 ) and its implementation project (PROGEP) were formulated by the Agency for Municipal Development (ADM), with the support of the World Bank in 2012. In Dakar Department, the drainage and sewerage master plan, aiming towards 2025 (PDA38), was prepared by the National Office for Sanitation in Senegal (ONAS) with the support of the EU in 2013.
Pikine & Guediawaye Almost no drainage system Plan: PDD/PROGEP by ADM (2012) Safety level = 1/10years
Other areas Flood occurs Almost no drainage frequently system Plan: No plan
Study A rea C atchment Dakar PDD: Drainage master plan for Pikine and Rufisque Drainage system have been Guédiawaye Departments (urban area) developed in most places. PROGEP: Storm Water Management and Plan: Drainage and sewerage Drainage system have been Maser Plan by ONAS (2013) developed in urban area. Climate Change Adaptation Project (Target year:2025) Plan :Old drainage and PDA: Drainage and sewerage master plan Safety level = 1/10years sewerage plan by ONAS for primary channel (No detailed information ) 0 10 km for Dakar
Source: JICA Study Team based on information from various agencies Figure 3.7.3 Existing Drainage System and Drainage Master Plan in the Study Area
(2) Precipitation and Tidal Conditions
1) Precipitation Figure 3.7.4 shows the location of meteorological observation stations in Senegal. There are 11 synoptic stations and 13 climatic stations, which would provide relatively reliable meteorological data. There is also a meteorological radar with an S-band at about 260km northeast from Dakar. However, the monitoring of the situation of precipitation in the area around Dakar by the radar is not accurate, according to the National Civil Aviation and Meteorological Agency of Senegal (ANACIM). It is said that a new radar would be installed in the new airport in Thies, so it is desirable to utilize the information of the new radar for meteorological monitoring in Dakar in the future.
37 ADM, ETUDE DU PLAN DIRECTEUR DE DRAINAGE (PDD) DES EAUX PLUVIALES DE LA REGION PERIURBAINE DE DAKAR, RAPPORT N° 3, LE PLAN DIRECTEUR DE DRAINAGE PLUVIAL, RAPPORT FINAL, 2012. 38 ONAS, ETUDE D’ACTUALISATION DU PLAN DIRECTEUR D’ASSAINISSEMENT LIQUIDE DE DAKAR 2025, 2013.
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N
200km W E Type of Station 100km Precipitation S Climatic Synoptic Radar
Region Study Area
0 50 km
Source: JICA Study Team based on information from ANACIM Figure 3.7.4 Location of Meteorological Observation Stations in Senegal
The monitoring stations that observe precipitation in and around the Study Area are shown in Table 3.7.5 and Figure 3.7.5.
Table 3.7.5 Monitoring Stations that Observe Precipitation in and around the Study Area Name Type Observed Data Duration Collected Data Dakar-Yoff Synoptic Daily, hourly 1947– Daily (1950–2013), hourly and shorter and shorter periods of precipitation for heavy periods precipitation events (1961–2013), with some gaps Pikine Precipitation Daily 1980–1994 Daily (1980–1994) Mbao Thiaroye Precipitation Daily 1950–2003 Daily (1950–2003) Rufisque Precipitation Daily 1950–1991 Daily (1950–1991) Guédiawaye Precipitation Daily 2006–2012 Daily (2006–2012) Thies Climatic Daily, hourly 1950– Monthly (1961–2013) and shorter periods Mbour Climatic Daily, hourly 1950– Monthly (1961–2013) and shorter periods Source: ANACIM
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N
W E Study Area S Guédiawaye Thies Dakar-Yoff
Pikine
Mbao Thiaroye
Type of Station Annual Precipitation (1961-2013) Rufisque Precipitation Dakar-Yoff: 409mm Climatic Thies: 478mm Synoptic Mbour: 555mm Mbour Radar
0 50 km Region
Source: JICA Study Team based on information from ANACIM Figure 3.7.5 Location of Monitoring Stations that Observe Precipitation in and around the Study Area
The correlation coefficients among the observed precipitation at Daka-Yoff, Pikine, Mbao Thiaroye and Rufisque are shown in Table 3.7.6. The followings points are notable.
Correlation of monthly precipitation is high for all stations. Correlation of daily precipitation is not high except one between Mbao-Thiaroye and Pikine.
Table 3.7.6 Correlation Coefficients among the Observed Precipitation One day Region Dakar-Yoff Pikine Mbao Thiaroye Rufisque Dakar-Yoff x x x x Pikine 0.627 x x x Mbao Thiaroye 0.619 0.923 x x Rufisque 0.518 0.681 0.569 x Five days Region Dakar-Yoff Pikine Mbao Thiaroye Rufisque Dakar-Yoff x x x x Pikine 0.870 x x x Mbao Thiaroye 0.825 0.968 x x Rufisque 0.714 0.735 0.766 x One month Region Dakar-Yoff Pikine Mbao Thiaroye Rufisque Dakar-Yoff x x x x Pikine 0.963 x x x Mbao Thiaroye 0.955 0.984 x x Rufisque 0.860 0.849 0.874 x Source: JICA Study Team In the present study, the short-term precipitation data collected at the Dakar-Yoff station from 1961 to 2013 were also collected from ANACIM. These data have been digitized and used for extreme value analysis. The annual maximum precipitation values for several periods of duration are presented in Table 3.7.7. The results of the extreme value analysis are shown in Table 3.7.8.
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Table 3.7.7 Annual Maximum Precipitation at Dakar-Yoff Rainfall Intensity (mm/hour) Rainfall (mm) Year 10 30 60 120 180 1 2 3 6 12 24 24 1 min min min min min hour hour hour hour hour hour hour day 1950 81.6 1951 144.0 1952 76.6 1953 62.8 1954 79.4 1955 79.3 1956 68.5 1957 94.2 1958 88.3 1959 28.8 1960 100.2 1961 74.0 64.7 44.0 38.7 28.7 21.3 11.4 5.8 3.5 84.1 49.7 1962 144.0 117.3 79.5 76.0 43.6 29.1 20.3 10.5 7.9 189.9 153.1 1963 75.0 40.6 28.5 16.7 8.7 5.1 122.1 104.2 1964 68.3 60.2 46.3 26.1 13.2 6.9 165.3 157.7 1965 136.0 76.7 40.8 20.5 15.2 34.0 20.5 14.3 9.5 6.0 4.1 98.7 70.7 1966 102.0 65.8 48.7 24.4 20.0 48.7 24.4 20.0 10.5 6.4 3.8 91.1 74.2 1967 58.5 32.5 22.3 12.8 8.0 4.6 109.4 95.5 1968 40.2 22.5 15.5 7.8 3.9 2.0 48.3 46.7 1969 159.2 93.6 52.8 31.8 22.8 49.0 29.4 22.2 11.5 7.6 3.8 91.9 72.4 1970 16.8 9.8 6.8 4.5 2.6 1.3 32.2 32.2 1971 22.6 14.6 10.0 5.0 2.7 2.0 48.9 32.8 1972 46.0 26.0 18.5 9.7 6.7 18.5 9.7 6.7 6.5 3.4 1.7 40.6 40.2 1973 18.0 13.0 10.8 8.7 5.1 2.7 65.9 47.9 1974 34.0 21.2 15.1 7.6 3.8 2.6 63.4 63.4 1975 77.2 47.3 39.6 30.6 22.7 39.5 26.2 22.4 12.7 7.2 3.7 88.8 86.0 1976 99.2 84.3 53.8 27.4 18.4 39.8 27.4 18.3 9.3 5.2 3.5 84.6 62.6 1977 37.0 22.5 15.7 8.4 7.5 3.9 92.4 92.4 1978 31.2 26.0 24.0 19.1 13.8 24.0 18.1 13.8 6.9 3.7 1.9 45.8 42.0 1979 69.2 56.4 39.8 20.2 13.7 28.2 20.2 13.4 7.2 3.8 2.2 52.1 50.5 1980 112.8 67.6 39.5 23.0 16.2 39.5 23.0 16.2 9.5 6.1 4.1 97.8 73.9 1981 97.2 59.6 39.6 21.2 15.4 35.4 20.8 15.4 8.3 4.3 2.1 51.2 42.8 1982 96.0 54.4 30.3 16.2 10.8 29.8 16.0 10.8 6.1 3.2 1.7 39.7 38.6 1983 102.0 57.0 29.0 15.3 11.0 29.0 15.3 10.3 5.9 3.0 1.5 35.6 35.6 1984 72.0 50.7 35.0 21.7 16.1 29.4 21.7 15.7 9.1 4.5 2.3 54.5 54.5 1985 100.8 73.6 37.0 18.5 17.7 30.0 18.5 12.4 8.9 7.0 3.5 83.6 67.4 1986 38.2 20.7 15.0 8.4 5.1 3.3 79.1 78.5 1987 161.2 96.0 66.5 36.5 25.7 66.5 36.1 25.1 14.9 8.5 4.8 114.6 101.8 1988 87.6 54.4 29.3 19.5 13.2 28.0 14.7 13.2 6.8 3.8 2.6 63.4 47.1 1989 78.0 50.4 28.0 20.3 19.0 25.2 18.2 18.5 12.5 7.1 5.4 129.4 99.8 1990 123.0 56.0 30.3 15.4 10.7 26.9 15.2 10.4 5.3 2.7 1.3 32.0 32.0 1991 90.8 60.1 37.0 28.4 19.2 37.0 28.2 19.2 9.6 4.8 2.4 57.6 57.6 1992 42.0 20.6 13.3 8.5 6.3 13.0 8.0 6.3 3.2 2.7 1.3 32.0 29.0 1993 100.8 45.2 38.8 28.4 20.1 38.8 25.0 18.9 10.2 5.8 2.9 69.1 61.1 1994 77.4 55.6 39.4 23.0 15.3 38.4 23.0 15.3 11.0 5.5 2.8 66.0 66.0 1995 90.0 54.8 40.0 31.9 28.2 18.8 9.5 6.0 3.3 78.7 76.7 1996 112.8 78.0 59.0 41.8 30.3 49.7 41.6 29.4 20.4 12.0 6.2 149.3 148.6 1997 27.7 19.3 14.0 11.0 5.5 2.8 66.3 66.3 1998 138.0 111.0 60.0 39.5 29.0 41.0 34.0 27.7 17.5 10.0 5.3 127.1 101.0 1999 108.0 56.0 32.0 17.5 13.7 23.5 16.0 12.0 7.2 3.9 2.0 47.0 47.0 2000 44.5 36.8 31.9 17.5 8.7 4.4 104.9 104.9 2001 90.0 54.0 27.8 14.0 10.5 25.0 13.9 9.8 5.4 2.7 1.6 37.4 32.1 2002 84.0 74.0 49.0 26.8 17.9 36.5 26.2 17.5 8.7 4.4 2.5 59.9 59.3 2003 99.0 66.0 48.0 24.3 45.5 24.3 16.9 8.8 4.4 2.9 70.5 48.5 2004 30.0 16.8 12.9 7.4 3.7 1.9 44.4 44.2 2005 32.4 31.7 21.6 14.8 7.5 3.8 90.9 89.5 2006 114.0 76.0 40.0 20.5 13.7 40.0 20.5 13.7 7.4 3.7 2.8 67.7 44.5 2007 69.0 45.0 39.0 29.0 20.7 30.0 27.7 20.7 14.5 8.2 4.1 98.5 96.3 2008 47.7 24.8 16.5 10.0 5.8 4.1 98.7 59.8 2009 40.2 21.5 14.9 8.3 4.2 2.3 55.2 54.2 2010 45.0 23.2 17.2 8.9 4.6 2.5 60.7 55.3 2011 79.2 71.0 42.2 28.9 21.1 42.2 28.9 21.1 13.5 7.2 4.7 113.9 83.8 2012 216.0 208.0 158.0 83.7 56.0 101.0 81.5 56.0 28.0 14.4 7.2 172.5 168.1 2013 105.6 86.6 58.0 31.8 26.9 58.0 31.0 26.6 13.8 6.9 3.5 82.8 82.8 Source: JICA Study Team based on data provided by ANACIM
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Table 3.7.8 Probable Precipitation at Dakar-Yoff 10 30 60 120 180 1 2 3 6 12 24 1 1 3 Return min min min min min hr hr hr hr hr hr day month months Period (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (mm/ (year) hour) hour) hour) hour) hour) hour) hour) hour) hour) hour) hour) day) M) 3M) 2 93.8 61.6 39.7 23.4 16.9 35.6 22.5 16.3 9.4 5.3 3.0 63 179 370 3 108.5 70.9 46.1 27.9 20.1 41.9 26.9 19.5 11.3 6.4 3.7 76 219 447 5 124.8 80.7 53.3 33.4 24.1 49.3 32.1 23.4 13.6 7.7 4.4 91 261 530 10 145.2 92.0 62.3 41.0 29.6 59.2 39.5 28.9 16.8 9.4 5.4 112 313 628 20 164.9 102.0 70.9 49.2 35.4 69.4 47.3 34.7 20.4 11.1 6.3 135 360 717 30 176.2 107.4 75.9 54.3 39.1 75.6 52.2 38.4 22.6 12.2 6.9 148 387 766 50 190.3 113.8 82.1 61.2 44.0 83.6 58.7 43.3 25.7 13.6 7.6 167 420 825 100 209.3 121.9 90.5 71.3 51.3 95.0 68.3 50.6 30.2 15.5 8.6 184 463 902 P.F.(*1) Gum. Gev Gum. Gev Gev Gev Gev Gev Gev Gev Gev Gev Gev LogP3 Sample 36 35 52 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 53 Remarks: M=month, 3M=3months, (*1) The probability function with the best fit is applied. Gum = Gumbel distribution, Gev = Generalized extreme value distribution, LogP3= Log-Pearson type III distribution. Source: JICA Study Team based on the data from ANACIM The rainfall IDF curves have also been developed by using the estimated probable precipitation, as shown in Figure 3.7.6.
Duration a b n 10 15 30 60 120 180 240 360 720 1440 r 2 1910.63 13.431 0.886 90.5 78.2 56.5 37.4 23.0 16.9 13.5 9.7 5.4 3.0 0.9965 3 2111.46 13.008 0.871 103.3 89.5 65.3 43.6 27.2 20.1 16.1 11.6 6.6 3.7 0.9959 5 2520.15 13.118 0.871 122.6 106.4 77.6 52.0 32.4 23.9 19.2 13.9 7.8 4.4 0.9992 10 3099.28 14.258 0.871 142.9 124.8 92.2 62.4 39.2 29.1 23.4 17.0 9.6 5.4 0.9997 20 4201.89 18.558 0.891 159.5 141.4 107.0 73.8 46.8 34.8 27.9 20.2 11.4 6.3 0.9980 30 4748.63 19.935 0.895 170.9 152.1 116.0 80.5 51.3 38.2 30.7 22.2 12.5 6.9 0.9966 50 5898.80 24.111 0.911 182.9 164.3 127.5 89.7 57.6 42.9 34.4 24.9 13.9 7.6 0.9930 100 7746.60 30.550 0.931 198.2 180.2 142.7 102.2 66.3 49.5 39.7 28.7 15.9 8.6 0.9863 Source: JICA Study Team Figure 3.7.6 Rainfall IDF Curves
2) Tide On the basis of the observed tidal data from the UHSLC between 1996 and 2013 (with some gaps), the average spring high-tide at Dakr is about 0.81 m above the MSL.
(3) Flood Situation Severe floods occurred in 2005, 2009 and 2012. The flooded area in the 2009 flood is demonstrated in Figure 3.7.7. It is estimated that more than 10% of the area in Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments was
3-154 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I inundated.
Source: PDNA, Evaluation Des Besoins Post Catastrophe Inondations urbaines à Dakar 2009 (Image Geo Eye, October 14, 2009) Figure 3.7.7 Flooded Area in the 2009 Flood
In the present study, an interview survey on the flood situation was conducted. The interview survey was carried out at 325 points in Dakar Region and Thiès Region. The survey points were selected mainly in the PROGEP area in order to distinguish between the past flooded areas, although some survey points were also selected in Rufisque Department and in the future urban area. The interview survey attempted to distinguish between the flood conditions in 2005, 2009, 2012 and 2013. The interview results reveal the following flood conditions:
Duration of inundation was more than three days at more than half of the interview points, which is much longer than the usual storm events. Except for the flood in 2013, the floods have almost the same magnitude in terms of flood depth and inundation period. Inundation depth in Pikine Department tends to be deeper than other departments in general. Inundation period in Pikine Department tends to be longer than other departments in general. Surface erosion appears more easily, even if the duration and depth of the inunadation are relatively low. The return periods of the precipitation volumes for 2005, 2009 and 2012 have been estimated as shown in Table 3.7.9.
Table 3.7.9 Return Periods of Precipitation Volume for 2005, 2009 and 2012 3 Months’ Total Year Max. 10 min. Max. 1 hour Max. 1 day (July–September) 2005 N/A 32.4 (2) 90 (5) 610 (8) 2009 N/A 40.2 (3) 54 (2) 521 (5) 2012 36.0 (130) 101.0 (150) 168.0 (50) 662 (14) Remarks: The value in ( ) shows the length of a return period in years, in which the extreme event is occured. Source: JICA Study Team According to ANACIM, most heavy rainfall events in the rainy season are caused by the moving cumulonimbus system from east to west. The rainfall’s intensity is strong, but the duration is usually short. It was observed by ANACIM that the moving cumulonimbus system stayed around Dakar longer
3-155 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I than usual during the extreme rainfall event in 2012. The hyetographs for 2005, 2009 and 2012 are presented in Figure 3.7.8 to Figure 3.7.10.
100 700 90 2005 600 80 Rainfall 70 500 Accumulated Rainfall 60 400 50 40 300 30 200
Rainfall (mm/day) Rainfall 20 100 10 (mm) Rainfall Accumulated 0 0 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 Day 35.0 30.0 August 22-23 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0
Rainfall (mm/hr) Rainfall 5.0 0.0 2005/8/22 7:00 2005/8/22 8:00 2005/8/22 9:00 2005/8/23 0:00 2005/8/23 1:00 2005/8/23 2:00 2005/8/23 3:00 2005/8/23 4:00 2005/8/23 5:00 2005/8/23 6:00 2005/8/22 10:00 2005/8/22 11:00 2005/8/22 12:00 2005/8/22 13:00 2005/8/22 14:00 2005/8/22 15:00 2005/8/22 16:00 2005/8/22 17:00 2005/8/22 18:00 2005/8/22 19:00 2005/8/22 20:00 2005/8/22 21:00 2005/8/22 22:00 2005/8/22 23:00
Source: ANACIM Figure 3.7.8 Hyetograph at Dakar-Yoff in 2005
60 600 2009 50 500 Rainfall 40 Accumulated Rainfall 400
30 300
20 200
Rainfall (mm/day) Rainfall 10 100 Accumulated Rainfall (mm) Rainfall Accumulated
0 0 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 Day 45.0 40.0 August 31-September 1 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 Rainfall (mm/hr) Rainfall 5.0 0.0 2009/9/1 0:00 2009/9/1 1:00 2009/9/1 2:00 2009/9/1 3:00 2009/9/1 4:00 2009/9/1 5:00 2009/9/1 6:00 2009/8/31 7:00 2009/8/31 8:00 2009/8/31 9:00 2009/8/31 10:00 2009/8/31 11:00 2009/8/31 12:00 2009/8/31 13:00 2009/8/31 14:00 2009/8/31 15:00 2009/8/31 16:00 2009/8/31 17:00 2009/8/31 18:00 2009/8/31 19:00 2009/8/31 20:00 2009/8/31 21:00 2009/8/31 22:00 2009/8/31 23:00
Source: ANACIM Figure 3.7.9 Hyetograph at Dakar-Yoff in 2009
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180 700 160 2012 600 140 2012 500 120 Accumulated Rainfall 100 400
80 300 60 200 40 Rainfall (mm/day) Rainfall 100 20 (mm) Rainfall Accumulated 0 0 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 8/1 8/2 8/3 8/4 8/5 8/6 8/7 8/8 8/9 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/21 7/22 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/10 8/11 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 9/29 9/30 Day 120.0
100.0 August 26-27
80.0
60.0
40.0
Rainfall (mm/hr) Rainfall 20.0
0.0 2012/8/26 7:00 2012/8/26 8:00 2012/8/26 9:00 2012/8/27 0:00 2012/8/27 1:00 2012/8/27 2:00 2012/8/27 3:00 2012/8/27 4:00 2012/8/27 5:00 2012/8/27 6:00 2012/8/26 10:00 2012/8/26 11:00 2012/8/26 12:00 2012/8/26 13:00 2012/8/26 14:00 2012/8/26 15:00 2012/8/26 16:00 2012/8/26 17:00 2012/8/26 18:00 2012/8/26 19:00 2012/8/26 20:00 2012/8/26 21:00 2012/8/26 22:00 2012/8/26 23:00
250.0
200.0 August 26 7:00- 14:00
150.0
100.0
50.0 Rainfall (mm/hr) Rainfall
0.0 2012/8/26 7:10 2012/8/26 7:20 2012/8/26 7:30 2012/8/26 7:40 2012/8/26 7:50 2012/8/26 8:00 2012/8/26 8:10 2012/8/26 8:20 2012/8/26 8:30 2012/8/26 8:40 2012/8/26 8:50 2012/8/26 9:00 2012/8/26 9:10 2012/8/26 9:20 2012/8/26 9:30 2012/8/26 9:40 2012/8/26 9:50 2012/8/26 10:00 2012/8/26 10:10 2012/8/26 10:20 2012/8/26 10:30 2012/8/26 10:40 2012/8/26 10:50 2012/8/26 11:00 2012/8/26 11:10 2012/8/26 11:20 2012/8/26 11:30 2012/8/26 11:40 2012/8/26 11:50 2012/8/26 12:00 2012/8/26 12:10 2012/8/26 12:20 2012/8/26 12:30 2012/8/26 12:40 2012/8/26 12:50 2012/8/26 13:00 2012/8/26 13:10 2012/8/26 13:20 2012/8/26 13:30 2012/8/26 13:40 2012/8/26 13:50 2012/8/26 14:00
Source: ANACIM Figure 3.7.10 Hyetograph at Dakar-Yoff in 2012
Figure 3.7.11 shows the relationship between the extreme short-term precipitation and the total precipitation in the rainy season of each year between 1961 and 2013. The total precipitation in the rainy season seems to be a more significant control factor than the others for flooding.
120 200 1961-1980 1961-1980 180 1981-2013 1981-2013 2012 100 2012 1964 1981-2013 (Severe Flood) 160 1981-2013 (Severe Flood) 1962 140 80 1963 1962 1996 1964 120 1967 1989 60 100 1967 2013 2005 2008 1975 80 2009 2013 40 1969 2008 60 1995 1969 1995 2005 40 1961 20 1989 1961 1975 20
Maximum Daily Precipitation (mm) Daily Precipitation Maximum 2009 Maximum Hourly Precipitation (mm) HourlyPrecipitation Maximum 0 0 0 200 400 600 800 0 200 400 600 800 Total Precipitation in 3 Months (July-September) (mm) Total Precipitation in 3 Months (July-September) (mm)
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 3.7.11 Total Precipitation in Rainy Season vs. Extreme Short-term Precipitation
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(4) Assumed Flood Mechanisms in Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments In the Pikine and Guédiawaye departments, the elevation ranges from 0 to 10 m. However, their topographies are not simple. There are many natural depressions that seem to be a primary cause of flooding in the area, under the current situation in which almost no drainage system is in place. The assumed mechanism of the flood is as follows (see Figure 3.7.12).
Due to the lack of a drainage system, almost all excess runoff could accumulate in nearby depressions. When the accumulated water in a depression reaches its lowest edge, overflow would occur, causing it to flow downstream. Water that overflows mainly flows along the road network and reaches the next depression, which makes an additional inflow to the depression. This process will be continued toward the downstream end, near the seashore. Once the depression is filled with floodwater, its existence is prolonged because there is no drainage to remove the water. Excess Runoff from WOU_003 Catchment
Water level increase Water overflowed Natural flows mainly along WOU_004 road network depression Natural Depression YBL_039 Sub-drainage area Water level increase WOU_001 WOU_002
YBL_031 YBL_027 YBL_009 Natural Depression YBL_012 Longitudinal View YBL_004 YBL_030 YBL_005 YBL_010 YBL_002 YBL_008 YBL_023 YBL_003
YBL_038 YBL_035 YBL_024 YBL_034 YBL_006 YBL_014 YBL_029
YBL_007 YBL_025 YBL_022 YBL_033 N YBL_032 YBL_028 YBL_036 YBL_018 YBL_037 YBL_013 W E YBL_011
YBL_019 YBL_026 YBL_017 YBL_015 S YBL_020
YBL_001 YBL_016 Plane View 0 1 km YBL_021
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 3.7.12 Assumed Flood Mechanism in Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments
Considering the assumed flood mechanism, the conception of the flood mitigation measures proposed by the PDD/PROGEP could be interpreted as follows (see Figure 3.7.13).
Natural depressions/detention ponds are connected by installed drainage channels. By this means, at least, the accumulated excess runoff in the natural depression/detention ponds could be drained as soon as possible, so that the prolonged inundation would be mitigated. By dedicating the detention ponds as a reserved area for flooding, the other areas could be used for the flood-free area up to a certain safety level. The sizes of detention ponds and drainage channels are determined so that the water level would not exceed the allowable level in order to prevent flooding in the flood-free area due to an extreme event, with a 10-year return period. Although the implementation of the PDD/PROGEP would improve the current situation, there would
3-158 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I be a residual risk of flooding in the future, as follows.
The area of natural depression was originally a flood-prone area. It is always at risk of more extreme events than those occurring during the 10-year return period. The function of the drainage system relies strongly on the capacity of detention ponds. The detention ponds should be properly managed. Otherwise, the flood risk would increase. Natural depressions/ detention ponds are connectedYBL_003 by drainage Excess Runoff channels. from Catchment YBL_038 YBL_035 Drainage channel Water level will not be to be installed higher than this level for YBL_006 the extreme event with 10-year return period YBL_014 YBL_029 digging
Detention pond YBL_007 to be installed This portion will be N YBL_033 Detention pond flood-free for the
W E (reserved YBL_032 extreme event with 10- as flood area) S year 0return period200 m
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 3.7.13 Flood Mitigation Measures Suggested by the PDD/PROGEP
(5) Plans, Projects and Programs for the Reduction of Flood Disaster Risks
1) PROGEP The PROGEP was formulated, supported by the World Bank, after the severe flood in 2009 following recommendations provided by the PDNA for the flood of the same year. The PROGEP is an implementation plan of the PDD for Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments, which consists of four components as shown in Table 3.7.10.
Table 3.7.10 Outline of PROGEP Project Title Storm Water Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project (PROGEP) Duration 2013–2017 (5 years) Implementing Agency ADM Required 72.9 mil. US$ Fund Source World Bank, Nordic Development Budget Fund, Government of Senegal Component A. Integration of flood risk in urban planning (3.9 mil. US$) B. Construction and management of drainage facilities (55.8 mil. US$) C. Community involvement in flood-risk reduction in urban areas and climate change adaptation (4.4 mil. US$) D. Coordination, management and monitoring; project evaluation (8.8 mil. US$) Source: World Bank39, GFDRR40 There are two phases in PROGEP as follows. Phase-1: Dalifort and Thiourour drainage areas (under implementation) Phase-2: Yeumbeul Nord and Mbeubeuss drainage areas
2) PDGI After the severe flood in 2012, the Government of Senegal committed to significantly strengthening its post-flood rehabilitation policy. Ten priority actions, as shown in Table 3.7.11, were validated by the
39 World Bank, Project Appraisal Document, Storm Water Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project, 2012. 40 GFDRR, Sénégal, Inondations Urbaines, Le Relèvement et la Reconstruction à partir de 2009, 2014.
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President. The MRAZI was also created in 2012. MRAZI was changed to the DARZI under the MRUHCV in 2014.
Table 3.7.11 Ten Priority Actions and Their Statuses Priority Action Realization status of the plan for priority actions, as of February 2014 Implementation of a special The Ten-Year Flood Management Program (PDGI, 2012–2022) was program over 10 years adopted and is being implemented. Preparation of further technical Studies have been made by ADM and ONAS. studies Mobilization of emergency funds Funding for the emergency phase was mobilized, supplied in part by for storm drainage the national budget (Finance Act, 2013). Organization of a round table of Funding for the emergency phase was completed in part through donors funding from the government budget and the organization of a round table of donors. Updating the National In progress Development Plan Finalization of the Urban PUDs are being prepared in Pikine and Guédiawaye under PROGEP. Development Master Plans Involvement of local communities MRAZI initiated community forums and set up local observers in 2013. They have little emergency response equipment. Revitalization of social housing Revitalization of the social housing policy (which depends on the policy with greater involvement of MRUHCV) is slow to start. The budget required is still not available. the domestic private sector Establishment of national In progress. The draft decree creating the monitoring system has been monitoring system on flooding sent to the General Secretariat of the Government. Establishment of an inter- Periodic meetings were regularly coordinated by the prime minister ministerial coordination mechanism and the ministry in charge of flood management (MRAZI). for interventions on flooding Source: GFDRR The activities and required budget for the PDGI are shown in Table 3.7.12.
Table 3.7.12 Activities and Required Budget for the PDGI Required Budget (mil. FCFA) Activity Emergency Short-term Mid/Long-term Total 2012–2013 2014–2016 2017–2022 Regional development planning 500 2,500 2,500 5,500 Urban restructuring and rehousing 17,000 86,301 380,385 483,686 Management of storm water 48,875 161,801 67,124 277,800 Total 66,375 250,602 450,009 766,986 Source: GFDRR
3.7.3 Coastal Hazard
(1) Situation of Coastal Erosion in the Study Area The Study Area is located in Cap-Vert peninsula. From a topographical point of view, the Cap-Vert peninsula is largely divided into the following four areas: Grande-Côte in the northern area, Almadies in the northwestern area, Cap-Manuel in the southwestern area and Petite-Côte in the southern area. There is a southward tidal current in the offshore area of Senegal, which is called the Canaries Current. The shore current is affected by the Cap-Vert peninsula. The southward current turns around at Cap- Manuel, which creates the northward current along Petite-Côte (see Figure 3.7.14).
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Grande-Côte Almadies
Cap-Manuel Petite-Côte
Source: UEMOA, 201041
Source: World Bank, 2013 Figure 3.7.14 Shore Current around the Figure 3.7.15 Rate of Coastal Erosion Study Area
The situation of coastal erosion is shown in Table 3.7.13 and Figure 3.7.15, on the basis of the previous studies and site visits made by the JICA Study Team.
Table 3.7.13 Situation of Coastal Erosion in the Study Area Area Topography and Geology Situation of Coastal Erosion Remarks There is a report showing that the erosion rate is 1–1.8 m/year around Cambérène. Almost all parts are sandy shore However, there seems to be relatively low Grande-Côte more than 100 m in width. risk of coastal erosion at the moment in general, considering the existing asset along the coastal line. The erosion rate is generally not high (0.2– There is volcanic rock such as 0.3 m/year). However, there is a possibility Almadies basalt and tuff. The slope is high of rock failure due to the erosion caused by and very steep. wave action during storm. There is volcanic rock such as The erosion rate is generally not high (0.2– There have been basalt and tuff. The slope is steep, 0.3 m/year). However, there is a place projects to protect Cap-Manuel but lower than that in Almadies. where the erosion reaches the nearby road the slope along There is a narrow sandy shore. and buildings. the shore. There are different ages of The erosion rate around Rufisque is Some sedimentary rock. There is narrow relatively high (1.2 m/year) due to wave countermeasures Petite-Côte sandy shore in general. Many action during the storm. There has been a have been applied artificial structures have been collapse of buildings along the shoreline. in Rufisque. installed. Source: UEMOA, 201041, UEMOA, 201042, WB, 201343 and site visits made by the JICA Study Team
(2) Existing Plans, Projects and Programs
1) Coastal Management and Development In order to implement the integrated coastal zone management at a national level, it was decided to establish the steering committee of the GIRMaC in 2009 44 . The chair of the committee is the representative of the DCEF. The secretariat is provided jointly by the COMO-Pêche and COMO-
41 UEMOA, Étude de suivi du trait de côte et schéma directeur littoral de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, 6C, 2010. 42 UEMOA, Étude de suivi du trait de côte et schéma directeur littoral de l'Afrique de l'Ouest, 6D, 2010. 43 World Bank, Etude économique et spatiale de la vulnérabilité et de l’adaptation des zones côtières aux changements climatiques au Sénégal, Phase 2, 2013. 44 Arrêté interministériel n° 10075 en date du 27 octobre 2009.
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Ecosystèmes. No representative from the urban development sector participates in the steering committee, however. In February 2015, MRUHCV launched a committee for the proper development of the Corniche area of Dakar. The objective of the committee is to pursue coordination among the related organizations. The activities of the committee include: 1) brainstorming on all activities related to development of the Corniche area of Dakar and its supervision, 2) preparing all consultations with the various partners for the selection of options, 3) submitting proposals for the development of the Corniche area of Dakar to the government and 4) studying the requirements for the development of the Corniche area of Dakar and all other issues related to the plan’s implementation.
2) Program Proposed by UEMOA UEMOA proposed a program protecting against coastal erosion for the member countries in 2007. The projects related to Senegal are presented in Table 3.7.14.
Table 3.7.14 Projects Proposed by UEMOA Required Cost No Project (FCFA) Component 1: Research and Development Regional study of problems of river outlets and/or lagoon outlets in the member 1,500 mil. R4 states of the UEMOA. (for 4 countries) Component 2: Development of a Framework of Coastal Management N1 Development of a national strategy against coastal erosion. 250 mil. N2 Development of a framework plan for coastal management and coastal law 450 mil. Component 3: Study for Implementation N4 Study on the protection of the coast in the seaside resort of Saly 100 mil. Component 4: Construction Works N12 Protection from the Corniche to Porte du Millénaire, Dakar 2,500 mil. N13 Coastal protection in the seaside area of Saly 5,000 mil. Protection of the coast at Rufisque (Reinforcement and extension of the existing N14 1,500 mil. structure). Source: UEMOA, 200745
3) Disaster Risk Management and Climate-change Adaptation Project The World Bank is implementing the Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project from 2012. In Phase 2 of the project, the following activity related to coastal erosion is included, with a required cost of one million US$: Activity 11 — Technical support for the implementation of the National Strategy for the Protection and the Fight against Coastal and Marine Erosion.
4) Projects Implemented by DEEC The Division of Coastal Management of DEEC is implementing the projects related to coastal management. They are listed in Table 3.7.15.
45 UEMOA, Programme Regional de Lutte Contre L’Erosion Cotiere de LUEMOA, 2007.
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Table 3.7.15 Projects Implemented by DEEC Support Project Main Feature Area Duration Cost Status (*1) Project: Integration of Development of the Adaptation to comprehensive measures, Saly, Climate Change in 2010– JICA/PN 4.1 mil. Comp laws, systems, subjects and Rufisque, the Lasting 2012 UD US$ leted funds to tackle climate Dakar Development of change Senegal (INTAC) Economic and Spatial Urban vulnerability analysis Saint- Survey of the and economic analysis of the Louis, Vulnerability and coastal zone in the pilot city 2011/7– Comp Rufisque- WB N/A Adaptation of the to tackle climate change and 2013/4 leted Bargny, Inshore Zones to natural disasters (Saint- Saly Climate Change Louis, Dakar, Mbour) Economic Regional Overall plan for stabilization Program of coastal areas; dike Rufisque 2011/1– 3.2 bil. Comp (PER)/Program of construction in Rufisque (Thiawlèn UEMOA 2013/7 FCFA leted Inshore Erosion in (Thiawlène) for coastal e) Senegal areas’ protection Saint- Creation of coastal area Integrated Louis, management; measures for Management of the Dakar, 2012/1– 4.0 mil. coastal erosion due to the EU (*2) Inshore Zones of Petite- 2015/9 euro effects of climate change Senegal Côte, and and coastal use so on 2010/11 Fund of Adaptation to Examination of the project Rufisque, 8.2 mil. – WB (*3) Climate Changes of the adaptation fund Saly US$ 2014 Economic Regional Overall plan for the Program stabilization of coastal areas; Rufisque 1.5 bil. (PER)/Program of dike construction in 2013– UEMOA (*4) (Diokoul) FCFA Inshore Erosion in Rufisque (Diokoul) for Senegal coastal areas’ protection Remarks: (*1) Support includes technical and financial assistance. (*2) First phase January 16, 2012 to October 15, 2013, completed; second phase of Estimate Programs (DP), from October 16, 2013 to September 2015, is in progress. (*3) Ongoing: Implementations of the construction of a dike at Thiawlène, setting up breakwater at Saly, informing and sensitizing the local population. (*4) Detailed draft report. Source: DEEC
3.7.4 Potential Hazard
The information on potential hazards shown below has been utilized as reference information in order to prepare a land use plan in the present study.
1) Multiple Hazard Map prepared by the World Bank (2009) The World Bank (2009) conducted a study to identify multiple hazards in Dakar Region. The relative flood potentials, coastal erosion potentials and coastal inundation potentials are shown in Figure 3.7.16.
2) Probable Coastal Hazard in Future On the basis of the observed tidal data from the UHSLC from 1996 to 2013 (with some gaps), the average spring high tide is about 0.81 m above MSL. The World Bank (2013) estimated the premium values of the extreme high tide event with a 100-year return period at 1.0 m for Grande Côte and 0.7 m for Petite Côte. Considering the premium values, the extreme high tide with a 100-year return period could be 1.81 m above MSL for Grande Côte and 1.51 m above MSL for Petite Côte. The land where
3-163 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I the elevation is lower than for these extreme high-tide levels could be flooded during extreme storm events with a 100-year return period. The future possible sea level rise due to climate change may increase the potential coastal flooding area. The estimated increase of the mean sea level according to the World Bank (2013) is 0.2 m in 2030 and 0.8 m in 2080. The probable coastal hazard evaluated by the World Bank (2013) considering future climate change is presented in Figure 3.7.17. The possible inundation area by coastal inundation where the elevation is 1.8 m and 2.6 m above MSL is also presented in Figure 3.7.18.
3) Possible Flooding Area in the New Urban Expansion Area The possible flooding area in the new development area, based on existing land use in the most extreme recent storm event observed in Dakar-Yoff (in 2012), was estimated by employing the Flo2D model, which is a two-dimensional flood simulation model developed by FLO-2D Software, Inc. The grid size of the simulation is 50 m. The DEM (2 m resolution) for Dakar Region provided by the ADM and the DEM (90 m resolution) provided by SRTM for Thiès Region are combined to generate the 50 m grid DEM. The infiltration is modeled by the SCS curve number, which can reflect both soil and land use conditions. The simulated result is presented in Figure 3.7.19.
4) Factories with Potential Hazards The factories identified as presenting potential hazards by the DPC, with a 500 m buffer line as a reference, are presented in Figure 3.7.20.
Source: World Bank, Preparing to Manage Natural Hazards and Climate Change Risks in Dakar, Senegal, 2009 Figure 3.7.16 Multiple Hazard Map for Dakar Region Prepared by the World Bank (2009)
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Magnitude of Probable Hazard by Coastal Flooding
2010 2030 2080
Magnitude of Hazard Low Middle High
Magnitude of Probable Hazard by Coastal Erosion
2010 2030 2080
Magnitude of Hazard Low Middle High
Source: World Bank, Etude économique et spatiale de la vulnérabilité et de l’adaptation des zones côtières aux changements climatiques au Sénégal, Phase 2, ATLAS Cartographique, 2013 Figure 3.7.17 Probable Coastal Hazard Considering Future Climate Change
Elevation -1.8m Elevation 1.8-2.6 m N
W E
0 10 km S Source: JICA Study Team Figure 3.7.18 Possible Inundation Area by Coastal Inundation
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No simulation
RacRose Flood Depth (m) 0.5...1 N >1
W E
S 0 10 km
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 3.7.19 Possible Flooding Area in the New Urban Expansion Area
Source: Based on presentation material provided by DPC, data extracted by the JICA Study Team Figure 3.7.20 Factories Presenting Potential Hazards
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3.8 Organizations and Capacity Development for Urban Planning and Management
3.8.1 Organizational Roles and Personnel
(1) Organizational Brief of the DUA The DUA is in charge of policymaking, urban planning and project implementation with regard to urban development in Senegal. DUA plays its part in undertaking central administration roles and functions under the MRUHCV. DUA comprises six divisions at the central level and provides technical guidance for subordinate offices in each region in order to monitor urban planning and management administration activities in the whole country. Figure 3.8.1 shows the organizational chart of MRUHCV and DUA. The figure indicates the key divisions (colored in light pink) that play the main roles in urban planning and management in the country.
MRUHCV (Ministry of Urban Renewal, Housing and Living Environment)
CSR (Cabinet and DSCOS DARZI DCVEVU DAGE DPHS DUA Related Services) DC (Department of (Department of (Department of (Department of (Department of (Department of (Department of Surveillance and Planning and Quality of Life and General Promotion of Urbanization and Construction) Control of Land Restructuring of Urban Green Administration and Social Housing) Architecture) DRUH Use) Flood zones) Spaces) Equipment) (Regional Division of Urbanization and Housing)
DIR DRC BGL BZSC (Division of (Division of (Bureau of (Zonal Brigades DRUH- Interventions Regulation and Management of Surveillance DRUH- DRUH- Other and Relations) Litigation) and Logistics) and Control) Dakar Thies Regions
1 SDU- SDU- 2 2 SDU - DPUR DSDU DCSU DOA DAF Mbour Other DA Guediawaye (Division of (Division of (Division of (Division of (Division of Departments (Division of Urban Planning Urban Urban Statistics Operation and Finance and Development and Architecture) SDU- and Regulation) and Management) Administration) Pikine Strategies) Cartography)
SDU- CCPZ(ZAC) Rufisque (Coordination Unit of Integrated Development Zone Program) 1SDU: Urbanization Departmental Service 2DSDU, DCSU: Temporal Division under process for official approval *DRUHs works closely with DUA Restructuring
Source: Based on a baseline survey conducted by the JICA Study Team Figure 3.8.1 DUA Organizational Chart with Key Departments in MRUHCV
(2) Divisions and their Personnel with General Tasks in DUA The six divisions of DUA at Dakar offices are the DPUR, the DSDU, the DCSU, the DOA, the DA and the Division of Finance and Administration. The local offices of DUA comprise local offices of the DRUH in each region, including departmental offices such as the SDU under the Cabinet for Related Services, assisted by DUA with technical guidance and consultation. The roles and functions of each division are described briefly in the Section 3.1.6, based on hearings with DUA. There are no recent official documents stipulating the division’s job description and staffing data. The baseline survey was conducted by the JICA Study Team to grasp the current personnel status of DUA. Table 3.8.1 shows the number of officers and their tasks who belong to DUA, DRUH and SDU in the Study Area.
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Table 3.8.1 Current DUA Personnel Conditions and Tasks by Division Total Employment status Division Tasks number of officers Regular Contract Director 1 1 0 1. DPUR Supervision, control and monitoring of urban development. Developing laws and 5 3 2 regulations on urban planning 2. DSDU Planning urban development strategy and 3 2 1 development plan 3. DCSU Establishment and management of urban 6 3 3 database 4. DOA Technical supervision and control of urban 10 8 2 planning program 4-1 Head Supervise the work of the section (1) (1) - 4-2. CCPZ/ZAC Management unit for the Cooperative (7) (5) (2) Development Zone (ZAC) program 4-3. Restructuring Unit for the Restructuring program (2) (2) (0) 5. DA Supervision and control of architecture 3 2 1 6. Division of Finance Financial and administration work of DUA 4 3 1 and Administration 7. Technical Technical assistant for DUA 3 0 3 Consultants DUA at the Dakar Head Quarters: Total 35 22 13 Offices in DRUH-Dakar Supervise, control and monitor 27 15 12 relation to DRUH-Thies urban development activities, 10 6 4 the Study SDU-Guediaway including public utilities. 7 3 4 Area SDU-Pikine Processing applications for 13 3 10 SDU-Rufisque development permits. Supervise 17 8 9 SDU-Mbour public greenery. 7 3 4 Total 81 38 43 Grand Total 116 60 56 Note: The numbers in brackets are the breakdowns. Source: Baseline Survey conducted in October 2014 by the JICA Study Team
(3) DUA Personnel Statuses The baseline survey (including an interview survey) was conducted for 20 officers of DPUR, DSDU, DCSU and DOA within DUA who are playing key roles in urban planning, in order to get a picture of the officers’ careers. The following descriptions summarize the characters of the 20 DUA personnel, who are the main targets of the Study’s capacity development activities. The details of the survey’s results are presented in Chapter A-7 of this report, Volume III.
The average age of the officers is 40. The median is 37. The number of regular officers is 13, accounting for 65% of the officers whose average age is 45, whereas contract officers account for 35% of all the officers and their average age is 30. The average work period at DUA, including other departments in MRUHCV, is 8.6 years. The median is three years, whereas the longest period is 33 years. There are four officers who have been working for more than 20 years. Mid-level officers are limited in number in DUA. The average work experience relating to urban planning outside DUA is five years. The officers’ specialties at university include urban planning, geography, architecture and civil engineering. Regarding postgraduate qualifications, 60% of the officers have a Master’s degree and three officers have experience in studying abroad. It was determined that the officers have basic knowledge related to urban planning.
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Regarding technical skills, 70% of the officers have good computer skills in Microsoft Office, 65% of the officers answered that they have good knowledge of CAD, while 30% of the officers answered that they have good knowledge of GIS. For training, 30% of the officers have experience of joining a training program for longer than a month. The training programs were mainly designed for acquiring GIS and CAD system skills. Other subjects were related to urban development. Regarding the division of labor, 61% of the officers work on tasks of their own division and also for other divisions. The officers are required to have extensive knowledge on urban planning. DUA officers related to the PDU and PUD planning are divided into two main groups: 1) senior officers with sufficient experience (regular officers), 2) young officers with basic knowledge of urban planning (contract officers). This indicates that mid-level officers have not been participating in the PDU and PUD preparation.
(4) Brief of Local Governments in the Study Area In the Study Area, there are 62 local governments with councils including four departments, 58 communes and four villes (Dakar, Guediawaye, Pikine and Rufisque) in Dakar Region. In the Thies Region part of the Study Area, there are seven local governments, including two departments and five communes. The role of the ville is to implement the various urban services within its jurisdiction that are delegated by communes. As shown in Table 3.8.2 below, there is a large difference in the numbers of staff and budgets among the villes and communes. Dakar has the largest and most distinctive local government in the Study Area, with the largest annual budget and number of administrative staff in the Study Area.
Table 3.8.2 Average Number of Staff and Budgets of Villes and Communes in the Study Area Budget Ville Number of Staff (million FCFA/year） Dakar (ville) 1,606 56,432 Average of 19 communes in Dakar Department 144 785 Pikine (ville) 1,168 4,675 Average of 16 communes in Pikine Department 47 457 Rufisque (ville) 1,338 5,000 Average of 12 communes in Rufisque Department 41 427 Guédiawaye (ville) 160 2,800 Average of five communes in Guédiawaye Department 35 180 Average of five communes in Thiès/Mbour Department in the Study Area 13 279 Note: The annual budgets, in some cases, were derived by converting the budget for a period shorter than a year to 12 months, or by referring to the budget of the previous year. Source: Ville Commune Survey (Baseline Survey) in October–December 2014, by the JICA Study Team
3.8.2 Capacity Assessment of DUA and Local Governments
(1) Brief of Surveys for Capacity Assessment The Study Team conducted several surveys in cooperation with DUA in order to grasp the organizational conditions of DUA and the local governments in the Study Area, and to assess their capacities. These surveys also aimed to utilize the results to formulate both technical transfer programs in the course of the Study and a capacity development plan. The surveys comprise 1) a baseline survey, 2) a capacity assessment survey focusing on DUA personnel and 3) a needs assessment study for DUA and local
3-169 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I governments in the Study Area. The surveys were conducted mainly by using a structured questionnaire in association with interviews designed by a JICA expert. Table 3.8.3 shows the briefs of the surveys undertaken over the course of the Study. Details of the surveys, such as their contents, methodology, target organizations and results are described in the Appendices A7 and A8.
Table 3.8.3 Brief of Capacity Assessment Surveys for Organizations Survey Purpose Method Target Organization All divisions of DUA To collect basic data Structured interview and local 1. Baseline Survey for relevant Data collection governments within organizations the Study Area Structured Target key divisions* 2.1 Self-capacity Self-assessment of the questionnaire survey related to PDU/PUD assessment-1 skills of personnel in interview planning To assess skills of 2. Capacity 2.2 JICA expert Structured All JICA experts in DUA personnel, by Assessme assessment questionnaire survey the Study Team JICA experts nt Survey Counterparts in To assess skills of Structured 2.3 Self-capacity relation to Daga personnel during the questionnaire survey assessment-2 Kholpa’s PUD PUD planning process in interview formulation To assess training Structured 3.1 DUA’s needs needs of DUA questionnaire survey All divisions of DUA assessment personnel and 3. Needs in interview organization Assessme 3.2 Local nt To assess planning and governments’ Structured Local governments management needs of needs questionnaire survey within the Study Area local government assessment Note: Target Key Divisions are DPUR, DSDU, DCSU, DOA Source: JICA Study Team
(2) Capacity Assessment of DUA
1) Methodology of Capacity Assessment Setting capacity level for assessment The main goal of the capacity development for DUA is defined as follows, in consideration of achieving the assigned tasks and the key roles of DUA under the government decentralization programs of ACT III. Goal: Urban planning skills and knowledge will be comprehensively improved in order to supervise the local governments for urban planning and management. The capacity development for DUA personnel is required to take into account certain benchmarks, as measures for the capacity assessment of skills and knowledge for urban planning and its management. In order to measure capacity level in the capacity assessment, the target levels for expected capacity development were set at four levels, as shown below. Level 4: Able to guide and supervise local government by him/herself. Level 3: Able to guide and supervise local government with the support of external resources such as experts, professors and consultants. Level 2: Able to coordinate with related organizations, though the knowledge and skills possessed are insufficient for deep understanding of the planning issues. Level 1: Not able to execute a task due to lack of knowledge and skills.
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Capacity assessment by subjective and objective evaluations According to the capacity levels, the capacity assessments were undertaken by two methods of the “self- capacity assessment by DUA personnel” as a subjective measure, and the “JICA experts’ assessment of DUA personnel” as an objective measure, in order to assess the gaps for the design of a more desirable capacity assessment. The capacity assessments include the general capacity assessment carried out in October 2014 and the specific assessment for PUD planning in October 2015.
2) Results of the Self-Capacity Assessment-1 and the JICA Experts’ Assessment The capacity assessments of both methods were carried out in September to October in 2014 in order to identify the ability of the officers of DPUR, DSDU, DCSU and DOA in DUA at the beginning of the Study, by measuring their capacities for four levels of skills and knowledge in their urban planning activities. The results are detailed in brief below. The results of the self-capacity assessment shown in Table 3.8.4 reveal that the results of self-evaluation tend to be higher than those generated by the JICA Study team experts. The scores are higher in both cases for basic skills for planning, and lower for other sector planning. The lower score for other sector planning factor could be attributed to the fact that the DUA officers were not able to cooperate fully with the JICA experts on a daily basis, because the subjects were not necessarily directly related with their work
Table 3.8.4 Brief of Capacity Assessment Surveys for Organizations Skill Level* (average score) Theme of Planning Subject Key Planning Subjects Self- JICA assessme Experts nt 1.Basic skills for planning - Overall planning process of PDU/PUD 3.0 2.6 2.Core Competence for - Planning framework and strategy formulation Contemporary Planning - Participatory planning, SEA, disaster management 2.6 2.4 - Development control and implementation, etc. 3.Other Sector Planning - Road and transport, and infrastructure planning - Energy and waste management 1.7 1.7 - Economic analysis, GIS-database management, etc. Note*: Level 4: Able to guide and supervise local government by him/herself. Level 3: Able to guide and supervise local government with the support of external resources such as experts, professors and consultants. Level 2: Able to coordinate with related organizations, though knowledge and skills are insufficient for a deep understanding of planning issues. Level 1: Not able to execute a task due to the lack of knowledge and skills. Source: Capacity assessment surveys designed by the JICA Study Team
3) Result of the Self-Capacity Assessment-2 Survey In conjunction with the Daga Kholpa PUD formulation as a part of the Study, members of DUA for the PUD planning team were appointed by DUA from DPUR, DSDU, DCSU and DOA. The Self-Capacity Assessment-2 survey was conducted to identify the members’ skills at PUD planning both before and after the PUD-preparation workshop sessions, applying the four levels of capability as before. Table 3.8.5 shows the results of the self-capacity assessment conducted by 12 officers of the team. The average score for all five planning subjects for a PUD formulation was 2.3 points before the workshop, but rose to 3.1 after the workshop. Those participants assessing their capabilities at Levels 3 or 4 was 42% before the workshop, but the proportion went up to 83% after the workshop.
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Table 3.8.5 PUD-Planning Capability of the PUD Planning Team (DUA) Before attending After attending the the PUD-planning PUD-planning workshops workshops Planning Subject Average % of Average % of Skill Level 3 Skill Level 3 Level or 4 Level or 4 1. Data collection and situation analysis 2.6 50% 3.3 92% 2. Terrain analysis 2.4 42% 3.0 75% 3. Facility planning 2.2 33% 3.0 83% 4. Land use planning 2.3 42% 3.1 83% 5. Conceptual skill to discover alternative solutions for issues 2.1 42% 3.0 83% Average 2.3 42% 3.1 83% Source: Capacity assessment survey in October 2015 by the JICA Study Team
(3) Needs Assessments of DUA and Local Governments
1) Training Needs Assessment for DUA The training needs assessment surveys of DUA and local governments were carried out in October 2014 for the former, and in October to December 2014 for the latter. The needs assessment survey for DUA, especially, aimed primarily at identifying the training needs of DUA officers for the technical transfer program in the early stage of the Study period. A questionnaire survey was conducted for the 10 representatives who were the chiefs of DPUR, DSDU, DCSU, DOA, DRUH and SDU in the Study Area. All the staff in the target divisions also participated in this needs assessment by responding to the questionnaires prepared by the JICA Study Team. The subjects that were considered important were land use planning, participatory planning, urban disaster management, a PDU/PUD effective-planning process, urban transport planning and the GIS database. The surveyed staff placed a high priority on GIS, especially, when compared with the chiefs’ results.
1.Basic Planning PDU/PUD effective planning process Land use planning 2. Core Urban transportation plan Competence for Contemporary Urban disaster management Planning Participatory planning approach Strategic environment assessment Water supply system plan Swage and wastewater treatment system plan Logistics plan Waste management plan 3. Other Sector Electricity and renewable energy plan Planning (Infrastructure, Economy and industrial development plan Others, GIS) Social services plan Legal, institutional and organizational analysis Job description of DUA Consideration relating to decentralization in… GIS database
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0 Officers Chiefs Source: Training needs assessment survey in October–December 2014 by the JICA Study Team Figure 3.8.2 DUA Capacity Development Needs-Assessment by Division Chiefs and Staff
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2) Organizational Needs for the Implementation of Urban Planning and Development The 10 representatives of the chiefs of DPUR, DSDU, DCSU, DOA, DRUH and SDU in the Study Area chose five subjects as having high priority out of the 12 factors to be strengthened in the implementation of urban planning and development. They are 1) a skill development system, 2) the number of staff, 3) an adequate budget, 4) the ability of problem-solving for urban planning and management control and 5) technical knowledge.
3) Local Governments’ Needs Assessments Table 3.8.6 shows the views of the local governments with regard to the three most important actions in solving urban problems and issues. Overall, “budget” was given the highest priority, followed by “staff training” and “the number of staff” in the Study Area. The “budget” for urban planning and control was the most important issue in the four departments. On the other hand, Guédiawaye mentioned that the most important action is “staff training” and the second most important action was the “residents’ cooperation”.
Table 3.8.6 Three Most Important Actions for a Local Government’s Capacity to Solve Urban Problem /Issues Department Number of Staff Staff Training Budget Residents’ Cooperation Dakar * ** *** Pikine ** * *** Guédiawaye *** * ** Rufisque * ** *** Thiès/Mbour (Study Area) * ** *** Study Area * ** *** Note: ***: Highest Importance **: Second Highest Importance *: Third Highest Importance Source: Ville/commune survey in October–December by the JICA Study Team
3.8.3 Technical Transfer Program Implemented in the Study Period
(1) Approach for a Technical Transfer Program This technical transfer program as a means of capacity development that was devised by the JICA Study Team aimed to develop the capacities of the DUA’s personnel in the course of the Study, through collaborative work in formulating the Dakar Urban Development Master Plan 2035, the Detailed Urban Plan for Daga Kholpa and a pre-feasibility study of the priority projects. Based on the capacity assessment results (mainly the training needs assessment), the programs were formulated and implemented by different benchmark targets (skill levels) to be achieved by the programs, as shown in Table 3.8.7. They took into account the different conditions and character of the divisions in DUA, referring to the survey results for the levels of skill and understanding as described in Section 3.8.2. DUA officers of DPUR, DSDU and DOA were focused on as the core personnel for urban planning and management, and other personnel in DCSU, DRUH and SDU were regarded as secondary targets for technical transfer, in consideration of the possibility of their frequent participation in the program, their expertise and duties, determined through discussions with DUA.
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Table 3.8.7 Expected Comprehension Level for Main Subjects Core Member Other Members Main Subject (DPUR, DSDU, DOA) (DCSU, DRUH, SDU) Planning skills for main urban issues Level 4 Level 2 Planning skills for urban-related Level 2 Level 2 issues (Infrastructure, etc.) Planning skills using GIS Level 3* Level 3* Note: *Comprehension level for GIS is set for the officers participating in the GIS training. Source: JICA Study Team
(2) Planned Activities of the Technical Transfer Program The technical transfer program was designed to include several activities, including periodical meetings, training workshops and the on-job training activities for planning works with a target level to be achieved, taking into account its comprehensive planning process and measures including GIS training sessions and overseas training in Japan. The OJT activities comprise collaborative works for the Master Plan and PUD planning, through all planning occasions such as internal/external meetings for technical discussions and planning decision- making, the editing of PUD guideline formulations, the arrangement of work, preparation and implementation of stakeholders’ meetings, including presentations and facilities for the meetings. Table 3.8.8 shows the activities program to address each planning theme with the target levels of understanding and skills, with the same contents of levels as described in Section 3.8.2 being applied to this technical transfer program.
Table 3.8.8 Training Themes with Comprehension Level and Related Activities Target Training Theme Level 1 Basic 1-1 PDU planning process and planning system 4 Planning 1-2 PUD planning process and planning system 4 2-1 Development frame 4 Main 2-2 Policy and strategy planning 4 2 Core Subject 2-3 Land use planning (incorporate with transportation) 4 Competency (PDU/ 2-4 Urban disaster prevention, flood control 3 for PUD) 2-5 Participatory planning 4 Contempora 2-6 SEA 4 ry Planning Issues 2-7 Zoning technique and application 3 (PUD) 2-8 Development control technique and application 3 2-9 Urban development project formulation and implementation 3 3-1 Road and transport 2 3-2 Water supply 2 Infrastr 3-3 Sewage and drainage 2 ucture 3-4 Logistics 2 3-5 Waste management planning 2 3 Other Sector 3-6 Renewable energy supply 2 Planning 3-7 Economy, industrial development, tourism 2 Others 3-8 Social services 3 3-9 Green space and cemetery 3 GIS 3-10 GIS knowledge, basic skills 3 3-11 GIS analysis, advanced skills 3 Source: JICA Study Team
(3) Activity Performances of the Technical Transfer Program The JICA Study Team and DUA conducted the activities of the technical transfer program. The
3-174 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I following describes the key performances of the activities. (a) Regular weekly meeting: The regular weekly meetings aimed to be a multi-function opportunity for technical transfer programs. They served as workshops for thematic and sector planning and provided opportunities for discussions on planning issues’ solution and decision- making, etc. The meetings were convened over 40 times from the beginning of the Study in August 2014 until October 2015. (b) OJT activities: Key OJT activities in the stakeholder meetings in each department in association with presentation and facilitations, the PUD planning work for the Daga Kholpa area and PUD guidelines’ formulation have been performed in a collaborative manner. Other activities such as internal/external meetings for technical discussions, planning decision- making and the arrangement of planning works were also performed during the Study. (c) GIS training session: GIS training sessions were run from December 2014 to February 2015, and a GIS practical training session was run in August 2015. The details of the training session are presented in Chapter A-4 of this report, Volume III. (d) Training Program in Japan: The overseas training program in Japan was carried out between December 7 and December 20, 2014 with the title “Training Course on Sustainable Urban Development (Environment, Government, Management, Participation)”. The training program was tailored to emphasize sustainable urban development. It was also developed to cover the important subjects relating to a sustainable city, a participatory approach and the promotion of new urban development. These subjects were the key concepts for the formulation of a PDU and a PUD in the Study. The training program was arranged in the form of lectures and site visits as shown in Table 3.8.9, so that the trainees were able to have a clear understanding of the planning process for producing an Urban Development Master Plan and a Detailed Urban Plan. Five officials, three from DUA and one each from Guidiawaye Department and Diass Commune, participated in the training program.
Table 3.8.9 Training Program in Japan Theme Activities 1. Integrated enhancement of the Study a new urban development with mixed land use for residential, urban facility commercial and business activities in Minato Mirai 21, Yokohama City 2. Environmental city Study an environmental model city as an example in order to improve the badly deteriorated conditions in Kitakyushu City 3. Disaster management Study structural and non-structural measures for disaster management in Tokyo, including sewerage management and river projects 4. Urban management partnership Study an efficient urban management system through a partnership between the government, the private sector and higher education institutes in Kashiwa City 5. Practical use of GIS for urban Study urban planning activities at the municipal level in Yokohama City: management 1) City Urban Development Master Plan 2) Detailed Urban Plan 3) Urban planning system 4) Application of the GIS system 6. Participatory planning in Study participatory planning in a new town development in Kohoku urban/regional development 7. Integrated urban development Study urban development in a suburb and airport areas in Chiba City 8. Public-private partnership Study private sector participation to accelerate urban development via a public-private partnership in Kohoku New Town 9. Urban planning system in Japan Study the urban planning system in Japan Source: JICA Study Team
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CHAPTER 4 MAJOR DEVELOPMENT ISSUES
4.1 Development Issues by Sector
4.1.1 Environment
(1) Major Environmental Issues The following sections identify the “major environmental issues”, and offer a synthesis of the analyses of the environmental baseline situation. It is a concern that strongly challenges the future of the region, that threatens some values that should not disappear or be allowed to deteriorate and that one addresses taking into consideration natural resources, public health and people’s quality of life. Thus, major environmental issues include problems specific to the locality — such as the threat to woodland or coastal erosion due to sand extraction — but also significant and universal phenomena, such as climate change, natural disasters, industrial hazards, etc. Regarding the prioritization of the issues, the following criteria were considered: spatiality (localized or global issues), temporality (urgency), irreversibility of the impacts, links with other issues and positive impacts to be brought about by the PDU. The preservation of green areas is given the first priority, in consideration of its high relevance to urban planning in the form of a PDU in the Study and the global environmental perspective. There are seven “major environmental issues” in the Study Area, as follows: Reduction of forests, green spaces and sensitive wetland area Deforestation, urbanization and the expansion of agricultural lands are threatening the forests and green spaces, which have to be preserved. The protection of the Niayes ecosystems, which are highly important in terms of the global hydrological balance, shall be considered seriously. Coastal erosion The construction of houses on the coastal strip, the sand and shell extraction activities — activities that are concomitant with the rise of the sea water, which is a manifestation of climate change — are accelerating the phenomenon of coastal erosion, which shall be reduced. Pollution from different sources Traffic and industries causing air pollution, sanitation plants causing marine pollution, etc., are affecting Dakar and the Hann Bay, especially. In addition, there are the problems of Mbeubeuss’s uncontrolled landfill polluting the inland water surface and ground water with contaminated wastewater. Solutions shall be found to reduce all forms of pollution, which seriously affects human health. Risk of natural disaster Flooding after high precipitation is threatening the urbanized areas and informal settlements, especially. Urban sprawl on rural and natural spaces While maintaining the precious natural and cultivated areas, the urbanization process shall be based on
4-1 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I a land use pattern that ensures a good balance of urban, agriculture and natural spaces. Urban hot spots Thermal accumulation in the urban space, a consequence of both climate change and anarchic urbanization patterns, shall not be worsened and shall even be reduced where possible. The exact location of hot spots remains to be studied. Coastal erosions in islands offshore of Dakar Goree Island, listed in the UNESCO world heritage list, is under constant threat of coastal erosion. It is necessary to undertake urgent action in order to protect the rich heritage of this historical place. Ngor Island, a tourist and holiday resort city, is also facing the same risk. The Madelaine Islands, on the shore of the Western Corniche, has a park facing the same issue. Figure 4.1.1, below, shows a map of the major environmental issues in the Study Area, except for the island part.
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HABITAT - nmental Issues of the Study Area the Study of Issues nmental Figure 4.1.1 4.1.1 Figure Enviro Major the of Map JICA Study Team, from the data of the Ministry of Environment, World Bank and Cities Alliance/UN Bank and Cities from ofdata the the MinistryofWorld Environment, Team, Study JICA
Sources:
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(2) Future Trends of the Environmental Situation in a "Scenario without a PDU" Alongside the identification of major environmental issues, and based on the principle that the preparation of a city planning document shall not simply rely on the environmental situation at a given moment but shall integrate the anticipated evolution of this situation, it is relevant to identify the future trends of the environmental situation in the absence of the PDU. The “scenario without a PDU” also called the “business as usual scenario” should be based on past and present trends in which the continued existence of current practices will be considered. The major future trends of the environmental situation without a PDU are as follows. Irrational and frenetic consumption of natural and agricultural areas Without a strict control of land tenure, irrational and frenetic consumption of natural and agricultural areas through the construction of illegal housing subdivisions, especially on the Filao strip, as well as strong real estate speculation particularly around the new airport, is likely to increase. Acceleration of coastal erosion Without the strict control of building permit issuance for buildings located on the seafront, and despite the rarely respected interventions of the CCOD, villas and hotels may continue to arise on the shoreline, accelerating the coastal erosion phenomenon. Increased housing subdivisions in flood-prone zones Without a planning document based on the technical analysis of risks, particularly flooding risks, the programming of housing subdivisions in flood-prone zones is likely to continue. Worsening greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and traffic congestion situations Without a coordination of public transport with urban planning, the use of private cars is likely to increase exponentially and thus worsen greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and traffic congestion. Growing unhealthiness of the suburbs due to improper solid waste management Without an improvement in the planning of solid waste systems, unbalanced garbage collection and an accumulation of illegally dumped materials may increase, leading to a growing unhealthiness of the suburbs. Increased hot spots in urban areas Without a well-balanced sprinkling of green spaces across the existing and future urban fabric, the currently increasing phenomenon of urban hot spots, which is influenced by climate change, is likely to become even more influential, especially in dense neighborhoods. Rising incivilities and the degradation of social ties due to inadequate public spaces Without the audacious planning of pedestrian squares and other public spaces, the prevalent trend of the agglutination of private subdivisions combined together may create a city in which the lack of control and communication between people cause the rising of incivilities and the degradation of social ties. The policies, programs and actions implemented in parallel with the PDU that are likely to positively influence the negative trends of such an evolution of the environmental situation are the following.
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The PCTI, implemented by the Dakar Regional Council with the technical support of the decentralized cooperation of the Ile de France Region of France (thanks to a broad mobilization of local actors within a collaborative platform), paves the way to the PDU, by taking into account the present and future impacts of climate change in city planning documents and among the Senegalese planners. The Sustainable Cities Programme, initiated by the GEF, through its support of governance and policymaking in an integrated approach of design, planning and urban management, complements the PDU in the effort to achieve urban sustainability and resilience across the Dakar Region. Pikine-Guediawaye PUD, although it is on a limited scale, accompanies the PDU in its effort to integrate into urban planning various environmental issues such as the consolidation of forests or the creation of a “green and blue” network composed of green spaces and rivers.
4.1.2 Urban Development
Several main problems impede urban development in the Study Area, as follows. High concentration of urban activities in Plateau Urban activities are highly concentrated in Plateau, which is located at the tip of the peninsula and occupies only 0.3% of the Study Area. The urban activities include both national and regional administration, the commercial sector, manufacturing and logistics. Such a high concentration causes an excessive demand to be placed on the infrastructure. Rapid population growth A rapid population growth due to immigration caused a high population concentration within a limited area (about 23% of the population living in 0.3% of the national territory), imposing increasingly heavier burdens on infrastructures, urban services and employment. High levels of disparity in access to services There are high levels of disparity in the access to social and urban services and to general urban functions in the Study Area. Insufficient application of plans and regulations Urban plans and regulations are insufficiently applied. Inadequate supply of affordable housing The housing sector is characterized by weak house production, resulting in costly housings and a limited supply of affordable accommodation for the public. Deficits of housing were estimated to be 300,000 in Senegal and 125,000 in Dakar in 2013. Development in unsuitable areas The urban area is developed on unsuitable lands, such as hazard areas for flooding (mainly in Pikine and Guidiawaye), high tides, coastal erosion and within the vicinity of gas pipelines. These hazard areas were not considered in the 2025 Master Plan when designating new urban areas. Some core traditional villages in the vicinity suffer from precarious living conditions.
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Encroachment of development into environmentally sensitive areas and agricultural areas The urbanization has been observed in the environmentally sensitive areas and agricultural areas suitable for cash crops. The classified forests and existing forest areas are facing encroachment by heavy development. Housing areas under threat Housing areas are facing threats caused by cement quarries, factories and logistic infrastructure located close together, as a result of inadequate land use control. Inadequate park areas Park spaces occupy a land area of only 0.1%, equivalent to 47.0 ha. The unit rate of park per population is limited to 0.15 m2/person. As expressed in the result of the household interview survey in the Project, amenities are not provided adequately. Scarcity of land reserves Dakar Region is marked by the scarcity of land reserves. Land speculation The land market is subject to high speculation as a result of land scarcity, in spite of a regulation that determines the price of land based on the location area. Customary land still exists, mainly within the national estate. This situation of unlawful land use is a hindrance to adequate and well-regulated urban development. Non-implementation of important transportation projects Some of the transportation projects proposed in the existing 2025 Master Plan that are considered essential or relevant in realizing the urban structure for 2035 proposed in the present study have not been realized, such as the extension of the VDN from the coast to Diamniadio; creation of an arterial road connecting Lac Rose, Diamniadio and Bargny; the extension of the highway from Diamniadio to Thiès; Sendou Mineral Port with railway access and a maritime transportation system and the development of ferry terminals along the south coast. Figure 4.1.2 shows the planning issues related to urban development. They include potentials such as natural resources requiring to be enhanced, and the ongoing/proposed projects that may need to be taken into account.
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Figure 4.1.2 4.1.2 Figure Area Study in the Issues Planning JICA Study Team based ondiscussions with DUA Team Study JICA
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4.1.3 Economic Development
(1) Agriculture and Fishery Based on the subcontracted survey and interviews with the experts, the following constraints and issues have been raised. Urbanization pressures on agriculture Due to urbanization pressures, agricultural land has decreased in quantity and agricultural production has fluctuated or declined. Inefficient agricultural activities
Inefficient agricultural activities, including agriculture, poultry farming and livestock rearing, are observed from the viewpoint of marketing and value-chain development, disaster risk management and environmental sustainability. Factors such as the gradual decrease and salinization of the groundwater table and the costliness of inputs and cubic meters of water supplied by SDE result in inefficient agricultural activities. Post-harvest losses of sea fishing
Post-harvest losses of sea fishing along the Hann Bay and other areas are observed. Over-exploitation of coastal areas and an insufficiency of traditional fishing equipment.
(2) Industry and Services Based on interviews with the Dakar Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the Ministry of Industry and Mines, other organizations and the private sector, the following constraints and issues have been identified: Existing factories/workshops in residential and mixed-use areas Relocation of factories/workshops located in residential and mixed use areas. Some factories/workshops are located in residential and industrial mixed-use areas in the center of Dakar. Weak linkage, networks or value chains among industries
Linkages or networks among industries through associations are weak. Cluster development or high value-added product production (e.g., the craft industry) among them are key to solving the problem, but are still lacking. Lack of dynamism of the industrial market because of the weakness of investment, the limited size of the market for some commodities and a lack of competitiveness. Limited technological development
Technological development has been weak. It needs to be promoted through foreign investors in the new industrial zones, and SEZs should be introduced. Cooperation between the government and the private sector in strengthening and enlarging the industrial basis by technology transfer and the upgrading of machinery and equipment is still weak.
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Inadequate institutional reforms and arrangements
Rules and regulations for industrial and commercial development are not well organized; therefore, the situation requires reviews and improvements, including the impact of laws and regulations on the SEZ. There is a lack of careful arrangements for practical operations, which are indispensable for investors such as one-stop services. Limited activities of SME Technical, marketing and management capacities of SME businesses are still weak, requiring their empowerment for formalization. Inadequate human resources’ development
There is a lack of a skilled labor force for enterprises/investors, especially in the newly developed areas such as Diamniadio and the DISEZ. Training courses provided by the vocational training schools are not up to the demands of the business, requiring their review and diversification. The formulation of the customized training for large firms is an option. Expensive power supply Power supply, an indispensable prerequisite for industrial development, is not stable and is expensive.
(3) Informal Sector Impoverishment of some urban social groups The informal sector is composed of many small businesses, which are more or less well structured and are very often created spontaneously by people. The most important branches of this sector are the craft industry, trading markets, irregular rural employment, tourism-related activities and the fisheries’ subsectors. Markets have a strong job-creation capacity and have been making constant progress in recent years. While the informal sector is recording a growing number of house workers and maids as a result of a mass rural exodus, the impoverishment of some urban social groups is occurring. Craft industries at a standstill The craft industry is going through a standstill situation, despite government efforts, for a number of reasons such as harsh competition with imported products, insufficiency and obsolescence of equipment and a lack of skilled workers and funds. Mixed land use of housing and informal activities Inadequate support for the craft industry has resulted in mixed land use of housing and informal activities, leading to illegal occupation of public roads, which disturbs the traffic and creates nuisances for the public, such as pollution.
(4) Tourism Sector Development The following issues have been identified for the tourism sector. The tourism sector is presented here independently, in consideration of its importance in the economy, especially in foreign currency earning.
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Low recognition as a tourist destination by potential non-French tourists Dakar and its surrounding area have not been recognized adequately by international tourists except by French tourists, who accounted for 40% of the foreign tourists in 2012. Low occupancy rates of accommodation
A review of the capacity of accommodation found low occupancy rates of 24% in Dakar Region and 28% in Thiès Region, indicating difficult operating conditions. The allowable minimum occupancy rate is generally said to be 40%. Low occupancy rates could result in a vicious circle of low occupancy rates and the downgrading of the service levels. Lack of services supporting tourism
There are no tourism information services, such as information booths, pamphlets, travel maps, transportation services, guides or other information services at key places, such as the international airport, seaport, the city centers or other destinations (Gorée Island, Lac Rose, etc.). There is no visitor transportation service such as a shuttle bus from the airport or a sightseeing tourist-bus service in the cities of Dakar and Mbour. Opportunities for finding travel agents and services in the city are limited, as are opportunities for finding attractive tourism-product packages offered by agents, e.g., cultural tourism, agritourism, nature tourism, religious tourism and other activities, with the exception of some international agents online. Lack of variety in tourism products causing the short length of visits, especially in Dakar city
The majority of international visitors from Europe pass through Dakar City to go to beach resort areas in Mbour, staying for only a short period in Dakar. Many visitors from neighboring African countries stay in Dakar, mainly for business purposes, but their visits are also short. There are not many facilities in Dakar, such as convention centers or function rooms attached to hotels, to meet the needs of MICE, placing Dakar in a less competitive position for business tourism. Beach resorts in Mbour do not have additional attractions such as marine recreation, land sports facilities or rural attractions that could make visitors stay longer. There are no tourism activities such as agritourism in rural areas, either for international tourists or for domestic vacationists. Rural tourism products could offer alternative attractions for Dakar tourism. Poor management and insufficient infrastructure at tourism destinations
There are no facilities, access controls or parking systems at tourist destinations such as Lac Rose. Visitors’ vehicles are allowed into lakeshore areas, where the fragile natural environment should be carefully protected. There are no appropriate signs and walkways for urban tourist destinations from which tourists could enjoy attractions in the city comfortably and safely. There are few cultural and recreational facilities in the city, not only for tourists but also for the citizens of Dakar.
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4.1.4 Urban Transport
(1) Road and Road Traffic
1) Road Planning Lack of linkage between road network and public transport The road network has been mainly developed without consideration for public transport, especially “mass transit” such as PTB. Although the ridership of PTB has been declining in recent years, the main objective is to build up the reliability of public transport. In order to integrate public transport within the road network and, in particular, a mass transit system, the first step is to secure a sufficient space for both road users and public transport users along the targeted roads. Inefficient goods distribution system As the main roads have a high capacity, many private vehicles use the primary roads such as national, regional and departmental roads. They also serve as freight transport corridors. Although heavy vehicles are banned from entering Dakar Region between 6:00 and 10:00 a.m., that is, during the peak commuting hours, high traffic generation and a mix of many slow, heavy vehicles are observed on the existing primary roads in Dakar, which is also an important international logistical base on the Trans-African Highways. As a typical example, the area around the port, which is located close to the central business district, is especially suffering from the traffic congestion. This issue has also been raised and a further study has been proposed in the latest transport master plan (PDUD 2025).
2) Traffic Control and Management Inadequate traffic signal control The existing traffic signals are not performing at full capacity as they operate only in the time-of-day mode. No traffic-condition data are collected, and the signal control is not responsive to the changing traffic conditions. Thus, traffic condition data must be collected in real time, which in turn requires a reliable communication system. Lack of modern technologies such as traffic information systems As the number of automobiles has increased rapidly in the Study Area, traffic congestion has become increasingly serious. In light of this situation, efficient processing of collected data using ITS and the timely dissemination of the traffic information to the road users is necessary. Some real-time traffic information systems are already available in metropolitan African cities, such as Casablanca, Johannesburg, Nairobi and Cairo. Traffic information is useful for both drivers who are already on the road and for those who are planning to travel. Variable message signboards are necessary for the former, while the Internet provides pre-trip information for the latter. Inadequate parking regulations Parking regulations, especially for on-street parking, also need to be reassessed to guarantee a more efficient use of roads in the central business district. Parking in front of private premises such as restaurants can be utilized legally if road space is not occupied by the car. However, illegal on-street parking outside designated parking areas is reducing the number of available driving lanes, consequently reducing the road capacity and increasing travel times and, eventually, traffic pollution.
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(2) Urban Transportation Dependence on informal sector Today, movement around Dakar mainly occurs via public transport, as there is a low rate of car ownership. Public transport in Dakar principally operates only on the ROW section of the road. Most people are used to using public transport. As of 2001, public transport accounts for around a 66% share of trips made in Dakar every day; hence, this is an opportunity to maintain this mode’s share, even as more people gain access to cars. In Dakar, both formal and informal sectors operate public transport on the road. However, most public transport passenger trips are in the informal sector, which is not currently regulated and is causing many problems such as overcrowding, repeated random and sudden starts and stops on the road, disordering traffic, sectioning trips in order to charge a higher fare, and so on. Despite renewal efforts made by the state through CETUD and Dakar Dem Dik, Dakar’s automobile fleet is characterized by obsolete buses. Lack of priority to public transport Road traffic demand is overwhelmingly exceeding the capacity of the road network, causing chronic traffic congestion, especially in and around the central business district. Since the road system is a limited resource that must be used efficiently, priority must be given to the mobility of people rather than cars. However, priority over private vehicles in order to secure smoother travel for those who use public transportation is not given to public transportation. Absence of a formal and efficient public transportation system There are no formal and efficient public transportation systems such as BRT and light rail in the Study Area, which run in exclusive lanes and therefore with high speed and efficiency. The potential for business and commercial development along the routes would be high once they are introduced, like the BRT system planned by CETUD. Inappropriate bus route structure Generally, bus routes are categorized into four types from a planning point of view, namely line-haul bus services, circumferential bus services, circular bus services within major centers and sub-centers and suburban feeder bus services. The current situation in Dakar is that both DDD and the Association for AFTU buses have many routes in common. Thus, bus route restructuring needs to be considered in light of existing and future travel demand. Necessity of feeder bus services for rail and bus transportation Even if the existing railway system is improved and the planned mass transit system is developed, the rail-based transportation and a BRT network will not be sufficient to cover all of the travel demand in Dakar. Thus, a reorganization of the bus routes’ structure will again be required to provide feeder bus services for potential rail or BRT users. Lack of an integrated tariff system Integration of different transportation modes in terms of both physical connections and a tariff system would not only benefit individual passengers through enhanced convenience, but also urban transport operators through increased use of the system and rising revenue. Maritime transport The possibility for the maritime transport connecting Mbao, Rufisque, Bargny and Yène has not been tapped adequately. They could help mitigate traffic congestion on the land and improve the
4-12 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I accessibility between the urban centers in the Study Area. Soft transport development Walking (80%) is the most represented means of transport in Senegal’s cities. While there is a need for new generation transport infrastructures such as overpasses, road signaling, zebra crossings and so on, there also remains a need to consider structure designs for the better protection of pedestrians.
4.1.5 Logistic Infrastructure
Logistic infrastructure consists of various transportation modes, including the railway, roads, ports, airport and logistic facilities, in the Study Area. Based on the results of previous reports and surveys, and through the interview surveys and discussions with related public and private organizations such as CETUD, ANCF, COSEC and EMASE, the major problems and issues to be considered can be summarized as below. Physical and non-physical problems of Dakar port
There are physical problems with Dakar Port, such as: Lack of facilities in the port Congestion in and around the port due to the geographical situation of the port at the far end of the peninsula Inefficient inland transport infrastructure Absence of a national vessel fleet, while 90% of the external trade is carried out using maritime transportation Poor articulation between the maritime service and other transportation modes Harsh competition with other ports of the subregion, mainly because of the low performance of Dakar-Bamako’s railway. There are non-physical problems with Dakar Port, such as: Comparatively high port charge Inefficient customs procedure system, including inefficient port-charge collection system, such as paying fees at different locations separately High concentration in Dakar Port due to the lack of secondary or supplementary ports. Physical and non-physical problems of the railway system
There are physical problems with the railway system in Senegal, such as: Decrepitude of the infrastructure Problems for the transportation capacity due to the obsolete facilities and lack of equipment Problems of maintenance There are non-physical problems with Dakar Port, such as: Inefficient operation due to the low capacity and decrepitude of the infrastructure Many accidents, such as derailments Problems in the concession contract and its details Institutional problems such as an inadequate institutional set-up for strengthening the Dakar-Bamako railway. Physical and non-physical problems of the road system
There are physical problems with the road system in Senegal, such as:
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Lack of dedicated access roads near major logistical activities (Dakar Port and industrial areas) Serious road damage caused by heavy vehicles, lack of maintenance of roads’ pavements and the existence of unpaved roads Overloading by heavy vehicles and the poor condition of heavy vehicles There is a problem in the non-structural aspects, such as an imperfect regulation framework regarding overloading. Physical and non-physical problems of the logistical facilities
There is a structural problem in terms of a lack of facilities, including service areas (charging/discharging) and parking spaces for heavy vehicles. In the non-structural aspect, the lack of a formal trucking network, including a logistics hub, is a problem. Physical and non-physical problems along the corridor
There are such problems as a lack of maintenance of the road that is located far from the capital and of many checkpoints along the corridor. The following non-structural problems are observed: Additional costs for cargo transportation by road along the corridor, such as the escort service by Senegalese customs Inefficiency of customs’ clearance at the border Bottlenecks at the checkpoints, such as harassment, informal payment and bribery. Lack of inter-organizational coordination A lack of coordination among relevant government organizations and the private sector prevents the problems mentioned above from being swiftly tackled and resolved. Although there are quite a few problems, as shown above, the most crucial issue for the logistical infrastructure is to improve the accessibility among various logistics-related infrastructures. Especially important is the low accessibility to the most crucial main gateway, i.e., Dakar Port, which is the bottleneck, sometimes disturbing otherwise efficient and effective economic activities in Dakar. In terms of trade facilitation, although the survey results of the Twenty-Fourth Road Governance Report in the Second Quarter of 2013 (available in the latest version) mentioned that significant efforts and remarkable progress in Senegal could be identified, and that OECD trade-facilitation indicators in 2014 show that Senegal’s trade facilitation performance is relatively good and Senegal, in fact, performs better than average for sub-Saharan Africa, continuous efforts to eliminate the bottlenecks still have to be made, as shown in Figure 4.1.3. As most international cargoes are handled at Dakar Port, it is obvious that Dakar Port is over-concentrated in terms of cargo handling. If Dakar Port cannot handle cargoes, the impact on socioeconomic activities in Senegal will be fatal. Therefore, it is crucial to consider any risk-averse countermeasure as a contingency plan. In addition, since different organizations are managing different transport sectors, inter-organizational coordination must be secured in order to improve the logistical infrastructure in Senegal as a whole.
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Senegal’s trade facilitation performance: OECD indicators Latest available data, where 2 = best performance availability 2.0
Border agency Involvement of trade cooperation - external community
Border agency
cooperation - internal Advance rulings
Formalities - Appeal procedures procedures
Formalities -
automation Fees and charges
Sub-Saharan Africa Formalities - documents
Best Source: OECD (http://www.oecd.org/countries/senegal/senegal-oecd-trade-facilitation-indicators-april-2014.pdf) Note: For Senegal insufficient reliable information is available at this stage for indicator ‘Governance and impartiality’. Analysis is based on TFIs latest available data as of January 2013 and the set of TFIs as constructed in “Trade Facilitation Indicators: The Potential Impact of Trade Facilitation on Developing Countries’ Trade” (OECD Trade Policy Paper No. 144, 2013). “Best performance” denotes the average of the top quartile for each of the trade facilitation areas covered, across all countries within the database. Figure 4.1.3 Senegal's Trade Facilitation Performance based on OECD Indicators
4.1.6 Water Resources and Water Supply
The main issues for development of the water resources and water supply sectors of Senegal requiring especially careful attention are as follows. Scarcity of water resources Due to problems with water quality and water-table lowering, the availability of groundwater cannot be anticipated for further development. Additionally, since the available surface water (Lake Guiers) is located more than 250km away, water transmission becomes very costly. Therefore, water resources available for Dakar are very limited compared to the population scale and economic activities in the Study Area. As a consequence, rather than striving to increase the limited resources, placing a restraint on water demands becomes more important. Disturbed water balance by artificial movement of water due to the importing of water The imported water and its behavior significantly affect the water cycle, including both water quantity and quality, in the Study Area. For example, the imported water is contaminated after its use and is infiltrated to the underground without first undergoing proper treatment, which could cause deterioration of the shallow groundwater in the Study Area. Its impact is expected to increase in the
4-15 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I future. However, the actual situation has not yet been fully understood. Absence of an integrated water management plan for the Study Area In order to pursue the GIRE in Senegal, DGPRE is implementing the PAP (2008–2015). Under the PAP, DGPRE prepared the units of management and planning (UGP) of water resources. Despite the significant impact of the population and economic activities on the water resources, the GIRE plan in the Study Area has not yet been formulated, however. Depletion of groundwater Due to overexploitation of groundwater sources for the Dakar water supply system, groundwater tables are being lowered to restrict further developments. In addition, the groundwater in some areas does not conform to quality standards, and thus cannot be used for domestic purposes, but uses for non-domestic purposes need to be developed. Negative impacts of urban expansion around Diamniadio on existing small-scale reservoirs Both the quantity and quality of water entering the existing small-scale reservoirs near Diamniadio are expected to be affected by the urban expansion around Diamniadio. Cost recovery The rise in operation and maintenance costs due to new projects need to be reviewed and updated, with new incentives for continued payments to maintain appropriate cost recovery. Feasibility of desalination in Senegal Since operation of a large-scale desalination plant would be a novel experience for Senegal, its sustainability should be ensured.
4.1.7 Sewage and Sanitation
The major issues for sewerage and sanitation are identified as follows.
(1) Sewerage Limited sewerage service coverage Sewerage service coverage is limited. It is only the area in Dakar connected to the Camberen sewerage treatment plant and parts of Pikine, Guediawaye and Rufusque where sewage is collected, treated and discharged. The other areas are either those covered by sewage pipes without no treatment or those where there is no sewerage system at all. Excessive volume of wastewater treated at sewage treatment plants STPs have been receiving a higher volume of wastewater than the designed treatment capacity, because of illegal connections, an increase of water consumption as well as unplanned pipe connections. Wastewater that is not treated sufficiently is discharged; therefore, the water quality is degraded. Aging existing sewerage facilities The aging of existing sewerage facilities, especially the sewer pipes and pumps, is progressing and, hence, the number of such facilities is expected to increase. These facilities should be maintained properly because they could cause road caving and the leakage of wastewater.
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Weak enforcement of the sanitation law Although installation of pretreatment facilities in factories is stipulated in the Sanitation Law, it has not been enforced well in general. It is necessary to review the Sanitation Law in order to strengthen its enforcement. Inadequate planning for the sewerage system’s development There are only general concepts for the sewerage system, such as the location of planned sites of STPs and a roughly estimated wastewater volume, in Diamnadio and Daga Kholpa. It is, therefore, necessary to formulate a sewerage master plan that contains the estimation of the sewage volume based on the projected population and water consumption in the targeted sewered area, as well as the selection of an appropriate treatment method.
(2) Sanitation Limited access to hygienic toilets Even in Dakar Region, about 18% of the population is not able to access hygienic toilet facilities. Areas where people do not use suitable toilets are faced with the problem of spreading waterborne infectious diseases in the rainy season. Inappropriateness of VIPs and TCMs in some areas Although VIPs and TCMs are generally classified as providing improved sanitation, they are not suitable for areas where the groundwater level is high, because they allow infiltration, which may cause the contamination of shallow groundwater. Improper septic tank septage handling in north and south Rufisque Septic tanks with sump pits are the only sanitation types used in the Study Area. However, the very costly price of pumping (FCFA 25,000 and FCFA 40,000) causes some people to resort to manual evacuation directly on the street and this creates serious environmental and sanitary risks. The north and east of Rufisque is currently not covered by the septage collection service using vacuum cars. The unsanitary practice mentioned above has been observed there. Lack of human resources and financial capacities of local governments The improvement program of individual sanitation is implemented by local governments in cooperation with the DA and the SRA. However, in general, the local governments do not have enough human resources and financial capacities in the program’s planning and implementation.
4.1.8 Solid Waste Management
The major problems of solid waste management in the Study Area are described below.
(1) Discharge Lack of public awareness Lack of public awareness is a grave issue, which has led to improper means of waste discharge and illegal dumping on the streets. Increasing illegal dumping of construction waste In the process of urban development, illegal dumping of increasing amounts of construction waste can
4-17 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I become a serious problem. Considerations to control and monitor the illegal dumping, including the establishment of legislations, are required, in order to give the waste generators more responsibility for waste management.
(2) Collection and Transportation Low coverage for waste collection services Currently the coverage of waste collection services is low, especially in rural areas (15–40%): 90% in Dakar, 78% in Guediawaye, 61% in Pikine, 40% in Rufisque and 15% in Thies/Mbour Department. Informal concessionaire arrangements and unstable services Eighteen private waste-collection companies work in Dakar Region as concessionaires (as of 2015); however, the contract between CADAK-CAR and the waste-collection concessionaires has not been officially completed, which has caused the instability of waste collection.
(3) Treatment and Disposal Environmental and social problems caused by the Mbeubeuss landfill site The Mbeubeuss Landfill Site is not managed in a sanitary way by CADAK-CAR, which causes a lot of environmental and social impacts. The safe closure of Mbeubeuss Landfill should be implemented properly, including the establishment of an environmental monitoring system, once the Sindia Landfill Site begins operation. Suspension of Sindia’s sanitary landfill site It is evident that the Sindia Landfill Site should be opened as soon as possible, and it is also essential to secure a large enough land-filling capacity in order to receive the increasing waste. Improper treatment by the informal sector Improper treatment by the informal sector has also been a critical issue, as it causes negative impacts on the surrounding environment as well as on human health.
(4) Others Lack of a long-term strategic approach due to frequent institutional changes After the year 2000, the waste management system in the Study Area experienced frequent institutional changes, which caused the lack of a long-term strategic approach and hindered the accumulation of related data, experience and knowledge. Lack of community involvement It is also observed that the lack of community involvement resulted in opposition to the Sindia Landfill operation. Social acceptability should be emphasized for future waste-management programs.
4.1.9 Electricity and Renewable Energy
The issues and problems in the electricity and renewable-energy sector are summarized as follows.
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(1) Electricity
1) General Issues in Senegal’s Electricity Sector Enhanced, yet inadequate power-supply capacity to meet current power demands Recent trend: The structural deficit of electricity production in Senegal has been curbed, mainly thanks to the massive investment in the energy sector, which enabled energy production plants to record 65% growth within a few years’ time. However, the situation remains a serious one, as is reflected in the frequent disturbances. The Senegal River Development Organization is constructing a second set of generation facilities upstream the Manantali Dam (Felou power plant) for power generation purposes. Inadequate supply capacity to meet future increases to power demands According to the electricity demand forecast as of 2035, (see Section 7.7.3), demand will increase at the level of approximately four to five times the actual electricity demand in 2013. To secure the electricity supply’s capacity in response to such a demand increase is not an easy task. As there are limitations placed on electricity imports from neighboring countries, it is necessary that the planning of new power developments, based mainly on coal-fired thermal power plants, is carried out in Senegal as soon as possible. In view of this issue, the Sendou-1 coal-fired thermal power plant (125 MW) is under construction, and the plan for the Sendou-2 coal-fired thermal power plant (250 MW) is under consideration. On the other hand, Senegal will need more power, approximately 1,500 MW, in addition to the power from the Sendou plants in order to meet the electricity demand as of 2035. Inefficiency of the SENELEC To bring about the institutional improvement of SENELEC, which has chronic deficiencies, a national policy for the future organizational division and privatization of its power-generation division has been formulated. The construction and operation of new power plants are to be carried out by IPPs. On the other hand, the enhancement of the electricity supply capacity is urgent, as noted above, and the formulation of specific development plans and their implementation should be carried out as soon as possible. Accordingly, concerning the privatization of the power-generation sector, transitional measures for the long term, in which SENELEC will have responsibility for creating immediate and new power development plans, and implementing and operating them for a certain period, must be considered. High electricity prices At present, as electricity prices in Senegal are very high compared with those of neighboring countries, a drastic reduction of prices is desired. The high electricity prices are clearly caused by the small-scale diesel generating facilities that use costly oil fuels.
2) Issues in the Study Area Low reliability in built-up areas Reliability of the electricity supply to the built-up areas is decreasing for the reasons given below, although electricity supply infrastructures have been provided.
Almost all electricity supply facilities are old, and the number of problems with them is increasing.
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The capacity of all the distribution systems, including electricity lines, has become insufficient to meet the increasing electricity demand in the built-up areas, and the number of problems due to overloads is increasing. Furthermore, the intensity of electricity consumption in the built-up areas has been increasing gradually because of the increase in high-rise buildings. Inadequate power-supply facilities in new development areas The electricity supply infrastructures noted below have not been provided in the new urban areas.
Trunk transmission and/or distribution lines, which are the backbone of the electricity supply, have not been installed for medium voltages or higher ones. Substations (primary, secondary and tertiary), which supply electricity from the trunk lines at high and/or medium voltages to each consumer, have not been installed. In order to plan and design the electricity supply infrastructure, a basic development plan for the areas is needed. In addition to the electricity supply infrastructures, as mentioned above, regional power dispatch systems (distribution management systems or DMSs) are needed in these areas to supply electricity stably and effectively.
(2) Renewable Energy The ANER has set a clear target for RE, which is 15% of the total energy consumption in Senegal by the year 2025. This percentage is equivalent to the governmental targeted electricity supply of 1,000 GWh (in 2025) by RE. The issues for promoting RE in Senegal are considered to be the following. Ambitious target for renewable-energy use expansion The target of 15% is considerably high, compared with the experiences of Japan and some European countries. Planning and implementation of measures to expand renewable-energy use The measures for promoting the use of RE, such as those listed below, have not been introduced by the Senegalese government at present. Appropriate provision of a FIT system for purchasing electricity from IPPs and surplus electricity from in-house power plant owners Duty exemption for RE businesses and measures relating to import taxes on equipment for RE facilities Information exchange on RE utilization and benefit opportunities. Potentialities of different renewable energy sources Various RE options should be studied in consideration of the advantages and disadvantages of each option from a broad perspective. At present, PV use is primarily promoted by ANER. However, hydropower and waste-to-energy methods, in the form of biomass energy, are promising and cost-effective resources in Senegal. A viable development policy on those RE resources has not yet been formulated.
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Possible downgrading of the electricity quality due to increased connection with renewable energy sources As the introduction of a large amount of electricity from PV and wind energy sources to the national grid will downgrade the quality of electricity, the pace of introduction and the electricity quality should be carefully planned and monitored by the government in the future.
4.1.10 Urban Disaster Risk Reduction
The identified issues relating to urban disaster risk reduction are as follows.
(1) Overall Disaster Risk Reduction Limited capacity for dealing with emergency situations caused by disasters The capacity for dealing with an emergency situation caused by a disaster is limited. Currently, there is no contingency plan at an overall governmental level, which may lead to irresponsible responses by governmental organizations during emergency situations. The numbers of personnel is limited in the DPC and the BNCP. This situation should be improved urgently. Low awareness in the population about existing and future dangers Awareness of populations about existing and future dangers is low in general. People sometimes do not know how dangerous their living environment is and will be. This makes them stay in the risky areas. All available risk information should be disseminated to the population. Inadequate information management related to disasters Information related to disasters, such as a record of past disasters, has not yet been properly collected, arranged and stored. Transmission of risk information during emergency situations does not function well, especially at a local level. Establishment of a disaster risk-management center with an integrated disaster information system may improve the proper management of data and information, as would mechanisms for the transmission of information. Disaster risk due to industries with potential hazards There are some industries presenting potential hazards near to residential areas. This factor should be taken into consideration in planning industrial restructuring. Lack of consideration on disaster risk reduction in land use management Disaster risks should be reduced in a more proactive manner by means of land use management. The land use plan should consider the existence of potential hazards for new expansion areas. In an existing risk area that has already been occupied, regulations related to land use for the reduction of risk should be considered as priority measures before structural measures are sought to mitigate the hazard.
(2) Flood Hazard Frequent flooding in Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments Recently, flooding has occurred frequently in Pikine and Guédiawaye Departments. This is mainly because of the almost total lack of a drainage system and the special topographic conditions in the area.
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The proposed PDD i /PROGEP ii project would improve the situation. Its early and steady implementation should be ensured. Residual risk of flooding after completion of the PDD/PROGEP Although the implementation of the PDD/PROGEP would significantly improve the current situation, there would be a residual risk in the future, because the area surrounding the depression was originally a flood-prone area. Measures against such a residual risk should be considered. Possible increase in excess runoff in the new urban expansion area, and its impacts It is expected that excess runoff will increase in the new urban expansion area. It would affect flooding conditions in the downstream area. This effect should be taken into account during planning for the territory in the 2035 Master Plan. Special attention should be paid to changes in the hydrological situation around existing small-scale reservoirs in the new urban expansion area, because of the potential risk of spilled floodwater, as well as dam breakage. There are also risks of erosion and landslides in periods of heavy rainfall. Inadequate information on meteorology and hydrology There is no adequate meteorological and hydrological monitoring system in the Study Area. The system should be enhanced in order that proper early warnings for flooding can be issued.
(3) Coastal Hazard Increasing disaster risk by coastal hazards Coastal erosion has been proceeding gradually, and some damage has also been observed at places where buildings were constructed along the shoreline. There is a possibility of coastal flooding at lowland areas along the shoreline during extreme storm events. Its impact can already be felt by the reduction of the beaches, the longitudinal movement of erosion areas caused by the littoral drift, the threats to hotel reefs, the invasion and destruction of entire sections of living quarters, significant cracking of the cliffs and the degradation of coastal rocky cliffs (in the Dakar Corniche area). The magnitude of these coastal hazards could increase in the future due to climate change. There is also a pressure resulting from development along the shoreline due to urban expansion, which raises the risk of disaster. The proper management and conservation of the coastal area is required. Absence of coordination between urban development sectors and the coastal management body Although there is a potential development along the shoreline that is exposed to a disaster risk from coastal hazards, no representative from the urban development sectors participates in the steering committee on coastal management. On the other hand, a committee for the proper management of the Corniche area of Dakar has just been launched by MRUHCV. In order to properly manage the coastal area, it is necessary to enhance the coordination between the urban development sectors and the coastal management body. With intensified coordination, questions of how to regulate the uncontrolled development along the shoreline, and how to apply optimum countermeasures against coastal hazards while considering environmental conservation, should be discussed.
i PDD= Drainage master plan for Pikine and Guédiawaye departments ii PROGEP= Storm Water Management and Climate Change Adaptation Project
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4.2 Overall Development Issues
4.2.1 Stakeholder Meetings
(1) Objective and Schedule Stakeholder meetings are used as a methodological tool for the formulation of the master plan. It offers a communicative and participatory tool for the local stakeholders, from the outset of the planning process, up until the approval of the proposed plan. The purpose of stakeholder meetings is to reflect the views and opinions of stakeholders and pursue consensus building throughout the planning process, so that the final plan will be a work produced by all concerned parties. In the initial stage, the information gathered from the local stakeholders is used to draw up a vision for the planning of the Study Area, together with inputs from technical analysis, civil engineering and natural-science analysis carried out by technical engineers.
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 4.2.1 Vision Preparation Process
Table 4.2.1 shows the proposed program for the stakeholder meetings.
Table 4.2.1 Proposed Stakeholder Meetings No. Timing Department Target groups Topics of discussion Rufisque, Local residents, NGOs and Objectives, schedule and initial Guédiawaye businesses in the 2035 Master 1 September 2014 inputs by participants Dakar, Pikine Plan’s target area; local (problems, concerns, visions) Thiès governments (Communes: Diass, Sindia, Local residents, NGOs and businesses in the 2035 Master Key concepts of the 2035 2 February 2015 Pout, Popenguine, Plan’s target area; local Master Plan Keur Moussa) governments Local residents, NGOs and Discussion on the key concepts businesses in the Detailed of the 2035 Master Plan, 3 April 2015 Urban Plan’s target area; local opinions of participants governments (problems, concerns, visions) Same as No. 1 Draft proposals for the 2035 4 June 2015 and No. 2 Master Plan Joint Same as No. 1 Draft proposals for the Detailed 5 November 2015 and No. 2 Urban Plan Source: JICA Study Team However, after the first stakeholder meetings, a revision of the schedule was made to adjust the planning process for greater adequacy, as well as to dissemination planning results more effectively to local stakeholders. A modified schedule is presented as shown in Table 4.2.2.
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Table 4.2.2 Modified Program for Stakeholder Meetings No Timing Department Target groups Topics of discussion Rufisque, Guédiawaye Local residents, NGOs, Objectives, schedule and Dakar, Pikine, September businesses and local initial inputs by 1 Thiès (Communes: Diass, 2014 governments in the 2035 participants (problems, Sindia, Pout, Popenguine, Master Plan’s target area concerns, visions) Keur Moussa) Rufisque, Guédiawaye Key concepts of the 2035 Local residents, NGOs Dakar, Pikine, Master Plan’s objectives, and businesses and local 2 April 2015 Thiès (Communes: Diass, schedule and opinions of governments in the 2035 Sindia, Pout, Popenguine, participants (problems, Master Plan’s target area Keur Moussa) concerns, visions) Same as No. 1 and No. 2 Joint: 2035 Master Plan’s Draft proposals of the 3 June 2015 stakeholders and Detailed Interim Report Same as No. 1 and No. 2 Urban Plan stakeholders Draft proposals of the Draft Final Report, November 4 including the Master 2015 Plan and the Detailed Urban Plan Source: JICA Study Team
(2) Preparation for Stakeholder Meetings Prior to the organization of stakeholder meetings, key facilitators were selected from among the DUA officers. A training session was provided with the purpose of enabling facilitators in conducting workshops. The themes included the purpose of workshops and the use of information, as well as facilitation skills and methods. The training was conducted over two days in September 2014 for the first stakeholder meetings. A role-play simulation session on the subject of group work facilitation provided facilitators with practical training for actual workshops. By doing this role play, facilitators were able to identify probable questions that they might receive from participants, and challenges that they may face during the workshop. Such aspects of challenges and questions were discussed during the training session amongst facilitators to deepen their understanding of the facilitation method. Facilitators also agreed on the standardized explanations of the project and the mode of conduct to offer to participants at workshops.
Table 4.2.3 Training Program for Key Facilitators No. Time Program Venue Purpose of the workshop. DUA office building, 3rd floor meeting 1 September 9, 2014 Information to be collected. room Method of facilitation. Role play on the practice of September 10, DUA office building, 3rd floor meeting 2 facilitation. 2014 room Discussion. Source: JICA Study Team The key DUA officers arranged the deployment plan for the officers for facilitation at five stakeholder meetings. The key facilitators who participated in the initial facilitation training are listed in the following table. At actual stakeholder meetings, other officers who did not attend the initial training and internship students (stagiaire) also performed the facilitator’s role in the workshops. This gave them the opportunity to accrue first-hand experience in facilitating discussions and communication with local stakeholders in urban planning.
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Table 4.2.4 Key Officers for the Facilitation of Stakeholder Meetings No. Name Function 1 Ibrahima Mansaly DPUR 2 Kadialiou Toure DCSU 3 Fatim Tall Lam DOA/ZAU 4 Hamady Diallo Tanboura DOU/ZAU 5 Jobissa Ndiaye DOA 6 Cheikh Sadibou Sidibe DPUR, Project Manager Source: JICA Study Team
(3) First Stakeholder Meetings
1) Schedule The first stakeholder meetings were conducted in September 2014 according to the schedule shown in Table 4.2.5.
Table 4.2.5 First Stakeholder Meeting Dates and Number of Participants Number of Participants No. Date Department Plenary Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 1 September 15, 2014 Rufisque 67 13 18 10 2 September 18, 2014 Guédiawaye 37 12 14 11 3 September 24, 2014 Dakar 28 16 11 7 Thiès (Communes of Diass, 4 September 29, 2014 Sindia, Pout, Popenguine, 124 57 51 33 Keur Moussa) 5 October 1, 2014 Pikine 21 6 5 8 Total 277 104 99 69 Source: JICA Study Team
2) Subjects The first stakeholder meetings were arranged with the agenda presented in Table 4.2.6.
Table 4.2.6 Agenda of the First Stakeholder Meetings Hour Activities 8:30–9:00 Registration 9:00–9:15 Opening remarks by the Mayor Agenda presentation by the SDU’s director Opening remarks by the Prefectural Governor 9:15–9:30 Presentation of the Dakar Urban Development Master Plan by the Horizon 2035 Mr. Cheikh Sadibou Sidibe, Project Director, Project Team/DUA Mr. Abdoulaye Diouf, Deputy Project Director, Project Team/DUA 9:30–9:40 Formation of groups for the workshop Definition of workshop rules 9:40–10:10 Discussion of the future vision 10:10–10:45 Identification of current problems and assets in the Study Area, within the department 10:45–11:10 Break 11:10–11:50 Stakeholder analysis using the Project Cycle Management techniques 11:50–12:20 Presentation by each group 12:20–12:30 Closing remarks Source: JICA Study Team The following themes were discussed during the workshops in order to shed light on the present situations and challenges, as well as the views and opinions of stakeholders.
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Theme 1: Strengths and positive aspects of the area concerned This was an analysis of the strengths and positive aspects of the Study Area, such as its existing infrastructure, public facilities, natural aspects and cultural or historical features. Theme 2: Future visions Based upon the analysis of Theme 1, participants were asked to think of future visions for the area. The questions asked were ones such as “What are the future images of the area you wish to see?” and “What future do you wish to leave for your children and grandchildren?” Theme 3: Weaknesses and challenges In this theme, participants were asked to express their views on the weaknesses and challenges of the area, besides the features that they wished to improve or reconsider. Theme 4: Desired solution ideas and stakeholder analysis Some ideas were given by the stakeholders about what should be done to resolve some of the weaknesses and challenges. Ideas were given in order of the priority accorded by the stakeholders, in terms of which ones they considered more urgent or grave. For desirable solutions, a stakeholder analysis was also conducted to identify some of the key stakeholders in relation to the solution.
3) Results Lessons learnt from the workshop preparation A number of lessons were learnt through the experience coordinating the first stakeholder meetings. (a) The thorough involvement and cooperation of the Préfe (the Administrative chief of the department) is necessary. The local stakeholders are better mobilized through the communication line of the prefectural structure. (b) Sufficient time needs to be secured so as to allow flexibility for delays or any other unexpected events. (c) Provision of drinking water is indispensable as the meeting places may became very hot. Views expressed by the participants Some of the results of the first stakeholder meetings are highlighted in Table 4.2.7, below. These opinions and views expressed by the stakeholders were reviewed and used as reference information for consultations with authorities, and were eventually incorporated into the formulation of planning. The key points are also highlighted in the table.
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Table 4.2.7 Highlights of Stakeholder Meeting Results Department Activities Summary Current situation: What are the positive aspects? (Assets) Dakarhour Presence of wetlands (the Niayes and lakes) Historical sites, Car stations and PTB urban life Gorée Island infrastructure and Principal hospital/urban and health services’ retention pond (Zone de natural features are Captage Grand Yoff) seen as assets. Drainage network in the commune of Gueule Tapée-Fass-Colobane, Plateau CADAK-CAR for solid waste collection Guédiawaye Pumping station (wastewater) to Unité 2 pumping station at HLM Natural, Guédiawaye water-related Storm-water pumping station (Gounass Dioukhop, Hamo 5) infrastructures are Wastewater treatment plant at Cité SHS the strongest assets. Lake for ecotourism Limamou Laye High School Emergency plan (ORSEC) Beautiful beach 7 km (Golf Sud Wakhinane) Niayes and Casuarina green strip Pikine Basic infrastructures and facilities (zinc market, Syndicat, Thiaroye Basic social Market, Pikine Hospital, administrative buildings, car station, infrastructures and SERAS, Baux Maraîchers fish market) facilities are the Gare des Baux Maraîchers (public transportation terminal) strongest assets. Retention basin at Djida Thiaroye Kao Mbeubeuss Implementation of PROGEP Rufisque Kounoune power plant, Cap des Biches Industry, agriculture Fishing, agricultural, industrial area (Niayes) and fish production SOCOCIM, CCBM, oil mill, Cap des Biches industries are the strongest assets. A production area of Dakar Region Mbour/Thiès Proximity to Dakar; proximity to the AIBD power plant, Water production, national road-1 and toll road connection stone, road and Strong presence of the water table in Diass’s agricultural orchard agriculture are the The “Cordon pierreux” (stone barrier) of Diass strongest assets. Things you hope to see after 10 or 20 years Dakar Dakar as a global urban center Modern face of Dakar as a sustainable and functional city for populations Senegal Dakar as an open, airy, clean and healthy city PAPESF-PIDES-FAO Project to support youth Residential area Guédiawaye Limamou Laye higher school with active youth Presence of the green strip and nature Development of spaces for entertainment such as the Grand Theatre Reforestation alongside the Casuarina strip Pikine The Niayes zone is preserved with an ecological balance Inundation-resistant Gare des Baux Maraîchers (public transportation terminal) area with nature Retention basin at Tivaoune Diacksao Canals for storm water drainage at Pikine Est Police station in Diamaguène Sicap Mbao in Malika Rufisque Exploitation of the river in Toubab Dialaw River, Lac Rose Protection of Lac Rose and historic Rufisque and residential Strengthening resources at the health-post level (Bambilor, areas Sangalkam)
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Mbour/Thiès Diass as an emerging city Transformation A city with a proper urban development plan, with compliance to from a rural area to urban development standards for regular and organized housing an emerging urban Dakar Dem Dik transit lines already in existence area The area as a showcase for the whole of Senegal while preserving local culture and the layout of territory in Saafi and Palor Challenges/Weaknesses Dakar Relocation of polluting plants of Baie de Hann Polluting industry Recurring flooding and non-maintenance of open channels Guédiawaye Restructuration of irregular districts (Gounass) Irregular districts Pollution discharge of wastewater with illegal connections at the Pollution rain-water pumping station (Hamo 6) Pikine Proliferation of non-subdivided squatter settlements and accessibility Irregular districts issues Access Need for a cross-town artery, and exit road for the Baux Maraîchers car station Rufisque Problems of entries in the land register between Rufisque and Land registration Dangoudane, Pikine Bargny, Sendou and Yenne: bad and unsuitable issues conditions of the Sendou-Yenne road in the rainy season, absence of Road conditions a fire station and fire-hose system Mbour/Thiès Improvement of the living environment of Keur Moussa: Lack of urban electrification of all villages, secure basic infrastructure (high school, infrastructure large market, health center, car station, cemetery) Solution/Stakeholders Solution Beneficiaries Directly affected Opposing Decision- Others stakeholders Stakeholders Makers Dakar Redeployment Populations Heads of services, Lobbies Governme Civil of activities in traders nt and society the area of local Dakar stakeholde rs Guédiawaye Development of Sam Wakhinane None State, local Internat a proper Notaire, Nimzat, Golf Sud governmen ional sewerage Médina populations t instituti network for Gounass, Forestry ons controlling Golf Sud department (develo recurrent floods and Cité pment Enseignant partner populations s) Pikine Strengthening Populations Populations Uninformed Governme NGOs the garbage populations nt collection system Rufisque Supporting Population Decentralized tec Customary State and Custom PUDs with of the town hnical services of leaders communes ary urban planning the central leaders regulation Government Mbour/Thiès Review the Populations Local and central Local and status of the government central local governmen government t land and offer community facilities Source: JICA Study Team
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(4) Second Stakeholder Meeting
1) Schedule The second stakeholder meetings were organized in five departments in April–May 2015 as scheduled in Table 4.2.8, with the objective to reflect the views of stakeholders in the Urban Development Master Plan. The stakeholder meetings were attended by mayors or their representatives, local government officers, representatives of local communities, NGOs and business people.
Table 4.2.8 Schedule of Stakeholder Meetings (2) Department Date Number of Participants Participants Dakar May 6, 2015 40 Commune mayors, the heads of the Guédiawaye April 16, 2015 75 department, municipality officers, Pikine April 21, 2015 71 transport sector association, Rufisque April 14, 2015 75 farmers’ association, women’s Mbour/Diass April 9, 2015 110 association, students, commerce’s Total 371 association Source: JICA Study Team
2) Subjects The SHMs were programmed to discuss the following three themes in particular:
Elaboration of visions at the departmental levels Discussions of development scenarios Discussions of future urbanization patterns. The SHMs were organized by the DUA/JICA team and took place in the presence of mayors or their representatives, under the chairmanship of the department heads. This initiative aimed to address the local concerns of the local departments and their mayors more effectively, so that the discussions in the SHM have more significance and accountability for policy orientation, addressing local issues with which the local administrations are directly concerned. In addition, regarding a PUD, a site was proposed to be a model example in the department of Mbour. Participants were informed of the selection criteria and parties who were directly concerned, including Thiès/Mbour, were invited to express their views on the area.
3) Results Session 1: Visions In the first SHMs, a global vision was elaborated for the Study Area. This vision was presented at the second round of stakeholder meetings and the participants were further requested to focus on the characteristics and needs of their respective departments. The results of the discussions are presented below.
Table 4.2.9 Visions by Department Department Vision Dakar Dakar must be a smart, sustainable, multipolar, competitive, cultural and comfortable city. Guédiawaye The city must be sustainable, ecological, resilient and emerging as a multipolar place. Pikine A sustainable, emerging, inclusive and hospitable city. Rufisque A showcase in West Africa. A green emerging city of peace with a socially dynamic balance. Thiès/Mbour Promotion of modern urbanization respecting cultural realities, resilience, security and communication with the development of urban agriculture. Source: JICA Study Team
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Session 2: Development scenario and direction for a future land use pattern Three alternative development scenarios were presented in the stakeholder meetings. Scenario A-1: Urbanization-trend Case with Diaminiadio, Scenario A-2: Urbanization-trend Case with Diamniadio’s Urban Pole and Daga Kholpa’s Urban Pole, and Scenario B: Environment-oriented Case with Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa. The alternatives indicate possible future urbanization in the Study Area. Details of the development scenarios are given in Chapter 6. The participants expressed their preference for option B, which enhances the balanced development of the urban area and environment, rather than promoting an acutely urbanization-oriented development. DUA and the JICA Study Team presented the draft of a future land use pattern in the Study Area. The future land use pattern indicates the possible spatial distribution of main land uses such as urban center, mixed use, residential, agriculture and forest. Table 4.2.10 shows remarks made by participants.
Table 4.2.10 Comments Made in the Stakeholder Meeting Department Comments Dakar Protection of urban agriculture Creation of green area Provision of social facilities and parking lots Improvement of urban security Protection of coastlines Promotion of high-rise building for better space management Guédiawaye Identification of ongoing and planned projects Provision of recreational facilities Provision of a combined sewer system Restructuring of Madina Gounass Eradication of illegal occupation of public roads Enhancement of rivers and cashew-nut strips Promotion of green areas and the coastline Promotion of retention basins to install preventive equipment Pikine Extension of the sewerage system Relocation and redevelopment of Mbeubeuss Restructuring of irregular settlements of the Guinaw railway, Jeddah, Thiaroye Kao, etc. Protection of Hann Bay Modernization of markets (Thiaroye, SERAS, zinc market, Forail) Protection of the Niayes area Promotion of the park in front of and the coastline along Mbao Conduct an environmental impact study before the project’s implementation Restriction of development in local lands Rufisque Consideration of the environmental area Conservation of urban agriculture and fisheries Promotion of inter-communal relations Creation of a recreational area Consideration of a topographical candidate for zoning Clarification of municipal boundaries Creation of an effective land use control system Thiès/Mbour Inclusiveness of villagers and tours in the project Enhancement of flood protection Preservation of old urban fabrics No repetition of mistakes made in Dakar Zoning suitable for local specifications Relocation of residents living in sunken places Zoning to secure the land reserve Source: JICA Study Team
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Session 3: Supplemental discussion for Daga Kholpa The following points were raised in relation to Daga Kholpa. Empowerment of artisans so that they might benefit from tourism; Integration of existing activities in the DISEZ; Strengthening of infrastructure and equipment; Promotion of local development; Promotion of community-integrated protected areas, parks, ecological islands and biodiversity; Promotion of an economic center that is emerging and sustainable; Provision of suitable sites for hotels; Management of watersheds; Development of the area by making it autonomous and attractive; Provision for PUD ownership by the people.
(5) Third Stakeholder Meeting
1) Schedule The third stakeholder meetings were organized in five departments as scheduled in Table 4.2.11 in order to share the overview of the Interim Report and hear further comments on the presented Master Plan. The invitations were sent to the same institutions as participated in the two previous meetings. However, new participants were not excluded from attending the meeting.
Table 4.2.11 Schedule of Stakeholder Meetings (3) Department Date Number of Participants Participants Dakar Sept. 1, 2015 47 Commune mayors, the heads of the Guédiawaye August 25, 2015 30 department, municipality officers, Pikine August 27, 2015 47 transport sector association, Rufisque Sept. 8, 2015 44 farmers’ association, women’s Mbour/Diass Sept. 3, 2015 74 association, students, commerce’s Total 242 association Source: JICA Study Team
2) Subjects The program had the following two themes for discussion.
Explanation of the elaborated Master Plan Discussions on the presented Master Plan.
3) Results Overall Table 4.2.12 shows interventions made by the participants.
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Table 4.2.12 Comments Made in the Stakeholder Meeting Department Comments Dakar Consistency with other plans and the PDU Necessity to correct some regulations of zones to limit the urban sprawl of Dakar and make the PDU under preparation consistent with other planning documents. Consistency between sectoral plans and regional plans is needed. Consideration of the strategic plan is needed for sustainable development (PSDD), which was just validated by the President of the Republic, and to review the objective of increasing the percentage of CO2 from 5.2 to 6.7 as noted in the document.
Improvement of living areas and making good use of the PDU - maintenance of infrastructures is an issue to improve; - the occupation of agricultural areas and flood prone zones; - selection of priority functions for Dakar instead of its multiple functions; - utilization of peanut husks for energy production; - solving urgent problems (transportation, floods) for the Dakar development; - strengthening hygiene services for the management and surveillance of amenities; - the revision of urbanization code to make it consistent with the PDU; - calling upon the auxiliary commission for the management of buildings about to collapse; - integration of Gorée and Ngor’s islands within the Study to strengthen maritime real estate; - restructuring and regularization of irregular districts of Arafat, Grand-yoff; Grand-Médine; - remove the notion of ethnic conflict in the document to keep our peaceful specificity; - make use of Pikine and Guediawaye as dormitory cities urban poles; - reserve the site of the airport Léopold Sédar Senghor for future generations; - relocate the industrial zone towards Diamniadio or elsewhere; - think of more modern techniques for the management of waste (incineration); - integrate projects for restructuring within the PDU (the project of Hann Bay); - relocate the industrial zone; - plan and distribute craft industry zones among the SMEs; - connect the toll motorway to the airport road from Patte-d’oie; - rehabilitate the road to Yoff-Tonghor; - address the lack of sanitation at Yoff; - create a social component within the project and integrate it with a communication and education plan with supportive measures. There is a discharge of solid and liquid waste in the sea and a phenomenon of coastal erosion. Land speculation on the maritime public real estate (Maritime Fisheries Directorate) Flood problems occur in some districts; the lack of maintenance and the technical nature of drainage facilities. In Yarakh’s Maritime fisheries Directorate, more than 3,000m2 are occupied by houses and the expropriation of populations from this place may be needed. The limitation of space in Dakar becomes tighter as a result of big projects like DKL (project name). The Sub-prefect of Dakar-Plateau underlined the importance of a social dimension for the success of the PDU. He proposed thinking about the financial autonomy of local governments and the adaptation of the various codes to reality. Guédiawaye Improvement of living areas and good use of the PDU The new directions of the PDU were appreciated, and we were further asked to: - construct drainage networks; - stop uncontrolled urbanization in Diamniadio, during the wait for the completion of the Study; - raise the issue of future urban farming in the Sangalkam area; - protect green spaces; - make the planning document operational; - do the monitoring evaluation; - raise the awareness of stakeholders on their interest in preserving amenities from
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which they benefit; - the negligence of sports infrastructures; - the development of sports courses along roads; - the protection of flood prone zones requires monitoring; - illegal land use (parking of TATA buses, workers' workshops… ); - the non-availability of land tenure in Guediawaye should be rectified; - the preservation of the green belt. A request was made for the Study Team to get in touch with SDE’s departmental service to collect data on potable water in Guédiawaye in relation to the following issues: - adding value to the waste of Mbeubeuss; - capitalization on the synergies of various stakeholders in order to appreciate the flows in real time. Lack of the mention of the livestock sector in the expose. The lack of school amenities, mainly in Médina Gounass. Pikine Coordination between the state and local governments The issue of synergies that the state and local governments must cooperate in, in order to take care of the preparation of PUDs. Issues on solid waste management - the restructuring of Mbeubeuss and flooded zones into parks to recover lost green areas; - securing agricultural zones. A question was raised on the idea of relocating all industries. However, the relocation of polluting industries such as SENCHIM and the promotion of green spaces to strengthen biodiversity were recommended. Closing of Mbeubeuss and the creation of a sanitary land fill in Pikine. Improvement of infrastructure - the relocation of some primary activities (cattle market); The issue of accessibility for the Pikine hospital, sports ground and public transportation terminal of Baux Maraichers. The problem of accessibility of some infrastructures of the department. Construction of infrastructures facing problems of execution and supervision of works (public transportation terminal and toll motorway), problems of financial investments of local governments, as well as their acting in accordance with plans. The omission in the document regarding pollution of the Free Zone and ICS (Senegal’s chemical industry). The preservation of farming activities was proposed for the Mbao forest, besides an effective policy against floods. The informal economy needs to secure the work of craftsmen (workshops of carpenters, mechanics) and their relocation must be taken into consideration by the PDU. Rufisque Involvement of local government Involvement of more local governments in the PDU preparation process. To suppress the sanitary Sindia Landfill, which is close to AIDB and can cause the pollution of the groundwater. Provision of some data on waste management by the department is possible. Question on the alternative was raised regarding the disruption of farming and a sea level rise. Proposal was made to get in touch with the mayors of each commune. As for farmers' associations, they are ready to welcome any person or team who would deal with their concerns. Requests on commune boundaries Proposals are made on: - The integration of Yenne within Daga Kholpa’s PUD - The integration of the axis Cambéréne-Parcelles Assainies in priority projects - To reduce Dakar’s pollution, the speaker declared that he believes that the suppression of "rapid cars" (public transportation) can contribute to that. The applicability of the PDU after its preparation was questioned, as was local governments’ ignorance of the boundaries of the Diamniadio and Yenne Poles. A request was made for the integration of Bargny Commune within Diamniadio Pole, and for the link between SRAT and the PDU. A development plan is already being prepared and validated by the municipality’s council. Women are also farmers and their lands must be preserved to enable them to earn their
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living. A request was made for the team to visit the field to disseminate the document. Thiès/Mbour Questions on zone planning and land use Requests for support for resident farmers and the preservation of their agricultural zones, as well as sustainability. Flood issues after the implementation of big infrastructures such as the AIBD, which intensified floods in Diass with the opening of its valves, and the questioning of our proposals. Remark on the decrease of the groundwater level due to pumping by industries located in the zone and the proposal to conduct a study in the plateau of Diass with the partners. Clarifications on the park area (0.15m2/person to 1m2/person). Inhabitants of Kholpa and the municipal councilor of Diass insisted on taking into consideration farms in order to avoid the inhabitants’reluctance and to ensure the strong involvement of the populations of Daga and Kholpa. The issue of repairing damage due to waters from the AIBD. Clarification is requested on the number of hectares planned for the extension of existing villages and the proposed creation of a sanitation network in the zone. The issue of knowing whether or not a chamber of commerce is planned for the PUD area. The gradual decrease of the land reserve for the establishment of future infrastructures and amenities. The focus is put on cash crops and the lack of an EIA. Clarification is requested on what the project plans for the commune of Poponguine. Encroaching is underlined for the borders of the AIBD, compared to initial borders. Clarification is requested as to the surface area covered by the Study Area. The extension of existing villages is proposed for future generations, the populations' involvement in the project and the planning of local heritage for Diass. Source: JICA Study Team Daga Kholpa At the meeting, a questionnaire was distributed to the residents of Daga Kholpa to gather information useful for formulating a PUD. The followings results were obtained. Questions: 1. Are you ready to give up some lands, after compensation for community or national-interest projects? YES: 10 / NO: 6 2. Where are located farmlands exploited? A.1 Near the house: 6 A.2 Near the village: 13 A.3 A little bit further away: 12 3. Do you prefer preserving them? YES: 16 / NO: 0 4. Is there any historical or religious site to be preserved? YES:13 / NO: 3 5. If yes, where are they located? Indicate them on the map if possible. Sites are located at: • Loun boung (Diass) • Ndicrokh (Daga) • Site of Elhadji Omar in Diass near the High School • Mac na Ndébane at Mbaya • Each village has at least one site
(6) Fourth Stakeholder Meetings The schedule of the fourth round of SHMs was set at the five concerned departments as shown in Table 4.2.13, in order to share the overview of the Draft Final Report of the 2035 Master Plan. The program had the following two themes for discussion:
Explanation of the elaborated Draft Final Report Discussions on the presented Draft Final Report.
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Table 4.2.13 Schedule of the Fourth Stakeholder Meetings Department Date Number of Number of Participants Participants Speakers Mbour/Diass Dec 10, 2015 100 13 Commune mayors, the heads of the Guédiawaye Dec 14, 2015 49 9 department, municipality officers, Pikine Dec 15, 2015 32 7 transport sector association, farmers’ Rufisque Dec 17, 2015 70 8 association, women’s association, Dakar Dec 22, 2015 55 8 students, commerce’s association and Total 306 45 other concerned stakeholders. Source: JICA Study Team The program was preceded by the welcome offered to participants, the recapitulation of the project’s progress and the presentation of the draft final report, before giving the floor to the participants to make their remarks and recommendations. Thereafter, the DUA replied to the interventions made by the participants. Table 4.2.14 shows the highlights of interventions made by participants.
Table 4.2.14 Comments Made in the Stakeholder Meeting Department Comments Dakar Comments on transport Possibilities of transport on the following areas are requested: - The exploration of sea transport to facilitate mobility in Dakar. - A joint BRT project, and the PDU can use the intersection of Grand Medina to establish a relay-parking system for vehicles leaving for the suburbs. - The current airport Leopold S. Senghor should not be closed. It must be supported for security issues but also for its position close to the sea. - The station of Baux Maraichers must have the support of the government in order to be better utilized. - The expressways should have trees for the reduction of pollution. - It is the congestion that causes more pollution than the large number of vehicles in the traffic. BRT should consider the following: - Reservation of tram lanes. - Redefine the area via a facade development and the creation of parking and walking passages. - In 2016, the construction for BRT will begin with 7km by AGEROUTE. - The control system of transportation needs to be looked at for the realization of other works. The traffic problem is a key to resolving the densification of Diamniadio, thus the idea of parking is necessary. To consider transport road conditions, driver behavior and a vehicle traffic plan, and to promote public transport by creating pathways specifically for public transportation.
Suggestions on the town code - The current Town Planning Code is not obeyed. A revision of the Town Planning Code is desired.
Other remarks - The inclusion in the document of the preservation of green spaces and their sustainability. - To give the other regional capitals the same benefits as Dakar in terms of equipment and infrastructure for more balance. - The document (PDU) must have a micro vision to allow municipalities to benefit. - Coercive measures must be implemented for the applicability of this document. - Public spaces must be created for children. - The Forest of Corniche should be mentioned in the document because it is classified. - A new town outside Dakar should be considered. - The sensitization and mobilization of residents is needed for the correct application of the document.
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- To shorten the period of establishment of the training center by 2017. - To take account of environmental issues. - The document should discuss citizens behaviors. - To take seriously the restructuring of the Patte d’Oie. - Having inter-municipal discussions could solve some problems. - To provide pedestrian crossings on the VDN and identify the people who will be affected by the restructuring of the Arafat housing. Guédiawaye Comments on territorial restructuring Inconsistency of territories - The configuration of unsubdivided neighborhoods like Medina Gounass and Wakhinane Nimzatt, under the sustainable city concept. - The restructuring of Medina Gounass and Wakhinane Nimzatt.
Comments on flood-related issues The creation of drainage structures is necessary. The cutting of casuarinas trees causes the advance of the sea. The creation of a retention basin that can be a source of the development of aquaculture.
Comments on environmental issues There is a necessity to preserve Niayes by realization of the creation of the LoBATT- Fall-Tribunal street. The census in 2009 demanded the relocation of Mbeubeuss but it remains unimplemented. Technological solutions for household-garbage recycling are called for. Cutting pine trees for the realization of the VDN has caused degradation at the expense of agricultural areas, and a call for measures to address this problem. The construction of roads should be accompanied by a sewerage network.
Comments on other issues The 2,000 homes in the city of Alioune Sow and route behind the hospital have to be taken into account. Accessibility to the report needs to be ensured. Creation of factories and businesses is desired (agriculture, tourism) on the liberated areas and at Thiourour Lake. Ideas are proposed on special traffic lanes for some modes, such as horse-drawn carriages, during the development of the road. Modernization of markets should be considered, through which different light industry activities can be developed and also provide materials for chemical production, for example, the pharmaceutical industry. To translate the document into local languages. Pikine Comments on the usage of the documents The document should be a practical reference tool once adopted, because it is a tool to aid decision-making and technical support , which are extremely important and must work together. Local authorities are obliged to review the document and make checks on the land use. Three points related to the document were raised: - the clarification of terms used in the document - the sharing of the document - to include further clarification about the Sanitary Landfill of Sindia (CET).
Comments on institutional aspects There should be a synergy between the different services for the identification of at-risk areas, and there should be an attempt to involve local communities in projects, such as Teledac, for permission to build, use of water and classified forests, etc. Disagreement exists between the people in charge of the project and the structures of the national arena, and a call for the cemetery of Pikine to be closed. There are agricultural stakeholders (over 300 producers) in the classified forest of Mbao, where reforestation and the fight against bush fires are made possible by APIX. The creation of a monitoring committee to fight against forest destruction is proposed.
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Other comments The improvement of the Pikine-Guédiawaye way out of the Region is desired, especially during peak hours. Protection of agricultural and natural areas (Mbao’s classified forest). Relocation of industries. Management of the coastline. Creating relay stations in public to decongest the station of Baux Maraichers. The training center should be an objective for the medium-term achievements. Rufisque Comments on farm land The choice to preserve agricultural land next to the project in their locality is not favored. The best agricultural lands are located at Diamniadio Pole. If we must choose to preserve areas for agriculture, it should be in the Diamniadio area. The loss of more than 1,600 ha of farmland by their operators at the commune level, as a result of the construction of the pole. For this purpose, the commenter desires the relocation of these operators at Mbeud Senegal with the agreement of the state. There is an important subdivision between housing and farmlands. Therefore, the authority has to show land developers the limits of the pole.
Comments on the coast and forest The problems of Rufisque are inadequate sanitation and coastal erosion. For the Sendou area, coastline management is necessary. There are forests that can reduce the emission of CO2 in Dakar. Among these forests are the 1,500 ha pine-tree band at the Pink Lake, the Forest of Sébikotane and the botanical reserve Noflaye. These areas must be protected against the advance of the urban front, but must also be improved.
Comments on sanitation The introduction of a sewerage system in the production of Diamniadio Pole may impact Sendou negatively. Cambéréne’s sanitized plots are a bottleneck preventing mobility.
Other comments The compact city we envision in our document is not the culture of present populations. There is a worry about significant traffic problems in Rufisque, Bambilor and Sébikotane that may be caused by jumbo jets coming into the new airport. The PDU must take into account the concerns of young people, such as sports facilities. We need to take into account the TER and the findings of the PDA and PNGD documents. Efficiency of land use control by increasing the power of DSCOS is also recommended. Thiès/Mbour Comments on Daga Kholpa The delimitation of Daga Kholpa Pole must be shown. A concern was raised as to what will happen to the farmers of the locality after the adoption of this plan, whether or not they will be compensated. There were also wishes to hold a meeting in Daga Kholpa with the populations of Kholpa and Daga, so that people are more involved. The third option of urbanization was preferred, which is an exploded or dispersed urban structure.
Comments on flooding Difficulties related to floods in the area exist in the hilly localities (the high zone). For this purpose, we should think together about what erosion control measures can be set up. The establishment of a sanitation system is favorable, as it will supply agriculture with rainwater and prevent drainage from flowing into the sea.
Other remarks The distance from the solar power plant and the village of Kawsara was questioned. Land use must show very clearly the expansion zones provided by the project. Source: JICA Study Team
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4.2.2 SWOT Analysis
A SWOT analysis was conducted for the Study Area. There are two sources of information: the results of a SWOT analysis workshop held on April 22, 2015, as part of the regular weekly meeting, and the SWOT analysis presented in the Dakar-Thiès-Mbour Development Plan. The strengths and weaknesses mainly relate to people, society, infrastructure, history and tradition. They are internal factors that can be controlled, changed or supplemented. The opportunities and threats are, on the contrary, external and given, difficult to control and change. They include climate, geography, situations in the world and the surrounding countries, natural hazards and so on. The ideas expressed in the SWOT analysis workshop were reviewed and improved accordingly. There were many ideas explaining particular phenomena, “uncontrolled and unplanned urbanization”, for example. These ought not to be considered as weaknesses, and therefore were converted into expressions explaining the causes of these phenomena, e.g., “weak land use control mechanism”. These kinds of adjustments were made as often as possible. The SWOT analysis result for the Dakar-Thiès-Mbour Development Plan was integrated later. Table 4.2.15, below, presents the results of the SWOT analysis.
Table 4.2.15 Results of the SWOT Analysis Strengths Opportunities Population that is young, welcoming, logical Long period of pleasant weather with a lot of sunshine thinking, believes in cultural values, interested Favorable geographical condition with a coastline in the arts and with strong family ties including a coastal area (Corniche) and a sea front Society that is stable, traditionally democratic Geographical position as a regional gateway and with political stability Availability of land suitable for farm land, such as the Economic center with active trade activities Niayes area and land featuring a Casuarina strip Availability of infrastructures such as Trans-African Highways administrative infrastructure, toll road, roads, Good tourism resources in Senegal new airport, hub port and a second university in Upgraded competitiveness with neighboring countries Dakar Good relations between Senegal and Japan Existence of the PSE as a framework for Increase of public-private partnerships enhancing economic planning, funding and monitoring possibilities for funding Headquarters of international organizations Weaknesses Threats Institutional instability Unfavorable geographical condition, surrounded by Vandalism and insecurity the sea on three sides with a scarcity of developable Weak land use control mechanism resulting in land sprawl, uncontrolled and unplanned Climate change urbanization, lack of green space and forests Farm land salinization and a reduction in urban agriculture Rural exodus and population boom Lack of a law to enforce the 2035 Master Plan Social instability in neighboring countries and Lack of the capacity of local authorities to enhanced insecurity in subregions due to terrorist execute the newly transferred power over land threats use control and urban planning Increase in price for imported goods Lack of a system to control pollution Scarcity of water resources Low economic development level, with limited industrial production and dominant informal activities, resulting in a lack of job opportunities Lack of public resources Lack of infrastructures such as roads, drainage and other facilities, placing the Study Area in a vulnerable position in relation to natural hazards such as flooding and coastal erosion Source: JICA Study Team
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The population and a stable and democratic society are important resources for the Study Area, as Senegal has very limited mineral resources, unlike some booming African countries. These resources could be a great advantage in attracting foreign investments. The people, however, lack the capacity to create an attractive urban environment. This weakness at a personal level is exacerbated by undeveloped institutional mechanisms. The strengths in the people and society, therefore, should be fully exploited through capacity development at personal, organizational and institutional levels. There are both positive and negative aspects to the environment surrounding Senegal and the Study Area. Natural conditions such as the long period of pleasant weather, the long coast including Corniche and the geographical position are all advantages. Geographically, Senegal is surrounded by sea on three sides, however, and this constrains urban development’s potential because of limited land availability. Political and social instability in neighboring countries raises the position of Senegal in comparative terms, but damages the overall image of West Africa, including Senegal. The scarcity of water resources is a threat, but could be overcome by taking advantage of Senegal’s geographical constraint of being surrounded by sea on three sides, through the application of new technologies such as seawater desalination. The rural exodus and population boom constitute a threat for the Study Area, but could be controlled at the national level through the implementation of nationwide initiatives such as the PSE.
4.2.3 Problem Structure Analysis
The problems identified in each sector as presented in the preceding subsections were reviewed, summarized and their mutual relations clarified, as shown in Figure 4.2.2. The main problems directly felt by people are presented, while those related to organizations and systems affecting those problems, the background factors, so to speak, are not shown. There are a number of findings. Firstly, “inadequate land use control” is an important factor causing various problems such as uncontrolled urban expansion, a mixture of mutually incompatible land uses and habitation in unsuitable areas. The land use control mechanism determines the situation of a city at a fundamental level. The situation of the Study Area has unfortunately been unfavorable because of the lack of this land use control mechanism. To strengthen it is the central issue of urban planning in the Study Area. Secondly, a variety of specific problems that were identified converge into the three broad categories of degradation of the natural environment, degradation of the living environment and low economic growth. Degradation of the natural environment leads to such problems as the loss of biodiversity and an increase in CO2 emissions. Degradation of the living environment brings about discomfort for the people, health problems and risks to human lives. Low economic growth results in poverty, low income, unemployment and a deteriorating security situation. Thirdly, this problem structure could be referred to as a framework in conceptualizing the vision presented in Chapter 4 and as a checklist in preparing a policy package.
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Source: JICA Study Team Figure 4.2.2 Problem Structure of the Study Area
4.2.4 Capacity Development
(1) Current Situation and Existing Capacities The issues in the aspect of capacity development can be reviewed by looking at the social and political
4-40 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I situations requiring proper urban planning and management, and the existing capacities of DUA, local governments and other organizations at the three levels of capacity development: institutional, organizational and individual, as shown in Figure 4.2.3 below.
Current situation requiring Existing Capacities proper urban planning and a. Institutional level: management Lack of standardization tools for an urban planning a. Conventional problems: urban methodology infrastructures, sprawl, traffic Lack of coordination and cooperation mechanism among congestion, etc. relevant organizations b. Contemporary urban issues: b. Organizational level: global warming, hazard (DUA) management, environmental Lack of internal communication mechanism consideration, participation in Weak database and information system the development Lack of a system to transfer experience from senior c. Decentralization Act III: transfer experts to younger staff of planning functions to local Limited resources (budget, staff) governments, increased role of DUA in guiding local Lack of an internal training system (Local governments) Limited budget and staff Absence of a section responsible for urban planning and management (Urban Planning Society) Lack of activities to strengthen the professional skills of urban planners, such as an accreditation system, seminars and workshops) c. Individual level: Lack of individual skills of DUA personnel in basic planning, core competences and sector planning areas Source: JICA Study Team Figure 4.2.3 Current Situation and Existing Capacities
The social situations requiring proper urban planning and management comprise both conventional urban problems and new issues that have recently arisen. The recent change of the administrative system promoting the decentralization of functions under the Decentralization Act III policy is placing DUA and local governments in a new context. The existing capacities at the three levels have many limitations, as listed in the chart. The current capacity levels are not high enough to deal with the conventional and contemporary urban issues under the new context of the Urbanization Act III.
(2) Capacity Improvement of DUA Officers An interview survey in line with the self-capacity assessment was conducted in Oct 2015 with 16 DUA officers, in order to assess the achievement of technical-transfer program activities for capacity development undertaken as part of the Study. The DUA officers were requested to assess their skill levels’ improvement by themselves, in 22 subjects relating to urban planning after undertaking major technical-transfer programs during the Study. The capacity levels before and after the technical-transfer program, and the attainment levels, are presented in Table 4.2.16.
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Table 4.2.16 Results of the Self-Evaluation of DUA Staffs’ Capabilities in Urban Planning Initial Final Target Rate of Training Theme Level Level attainin Level g target 1. Basic 1-1 PDU planning process and planning system 3.0 3.6 4 90% Planning 1-2 PUD planning process and planning system 3.3 3.5 4 88% 2-1 Development frame 2.6 3.3 4 83% 2-2 Policy and strategy planning 2.7 3.4 4 85% Main 2-3 Land use planning (incorporated with Subject transportation) 2.6 3.4 4 85% 2. Core (PDU/ Competenc 2-4 Urban disaster prevention, flood control 2.5 2.9 3 97% y for PUD) Contempor 2-5 Participatory planning 3.0 3.6 4 90% ary 2-6 SEA (Strategic environment assessment) 2.3 2.6 4 65% Planning Issues 2-7 Zoning technique and application 2.6 3.0 3 100% 2-8 Development control technique and (PUD) application 2.3 2.9 3 97% 2-9 Urban development project formulation and implementation 2.6 2.9 3 97% 3-1 Road and transport 1.7 1.9 2 95% 3-2 Water supply 1.7 1.9 2 95% Infrastr 3-3 Sewage and drainage 1.7 2.0 2 100% ucture 3-4 Logistics 1.4 1.6 2 80% 3-5 Waste management planning 1.6 1.9 2 95% 3. Other 3-6 Renewable energy supply 1.4 1.6 2 80% Sector 3-7 Economy, industrial development, tourism 1.4 1.7 2 85% Planning Others 3-8 Social services 1.8 2.3 3 77% 3-9 Green space and cemetery 1.8 2.4 3 80% 3.0 3.3 3 3-10 GIS knowledge, basic use 110% (2.2) (2.3) (2) GIS* 2.8 3.2 3 3-11 GIS database analysis, advanced use 107% (2.1) (2.2) (2) Average points 2.3 2.7 3.0 90% Note: Level 4: Ability to guide and supervise local government by him/herself, Level 3: Ability to guide and supervise local government with the support of external resources such as experts, professors and consultants, Level 2: Ability to coordinate with related organizations, though knowledge and skills are insufficient for a deep understanding of planning issues, Level 1: Inability to execute a task due to a lack of knowledge and skills. * There are two target levels in GIS training: the figures above are for the six officers who received intensive GIS training, while the figures in brackets are for the total of other officers who received only general guidance as well as the six officers. Source: Interviews by the JICA Study Team The following observations are made.
In all 22 subjects, the DUA officers assessed that their capabilities improved by going through the training programs provided by the JICA Study Team. The attainment level, which is the proportion of the final score to the target level, ranged between 65% and 110%. Assuming that the allowable level is set at 80%, all the subjects (except the SEA) surpassed 80%. The score for the SEA was lower, most likely due to the fact that SEAs were conducted by a local consultant who was following the regulations used in Senegal. Their contact with the DUA officers was more limited; thus, opportunities for technical transfer were also limited.
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The scores are higher for GIS. The participants in the GIS training sessions received a series of intensive training on the basics and application of the method. As a result, some of them were able to apply the acquired GIS skills to actual work. The achievement level was also perceived to be high because the initial skill level before the training was almost nonexistent. While the DUA officers recognize that their capacities have improved, observations by the JICA Study Team experts indicate that their actual capabilities would be lower in a strict sense. This gap exists because of the differences between the JICA experts and the DUA officers in the amount of experience in applying the techniques to actual situations. It should be recognized that capacity development is a long process and that such targets as are shown in Table 4.2.14 could be attained, not only by upgrading the technical skills by technical transfer programs such as the one provided by the JICA Study Team on this occasion, but also by actually applying them to different situations on their own.
4.2.5 Findings by Social Survey
A social survey was conducted in the form of household interview survey as part of the Environmental Baseline Survey.
(1) Social Survey A social survey was conducted as a source of baseline of information in order to comprehend the social conditions in the Study Area. The objective of the HHS, in particular, was to gather views from citizens on the topics related to urban planning in the concerned areas of the Dakar Region and its adjacent areas, so as to reflect the viewpoints and opinions of the populations who have direct stakes in the updating of the Dakar Urban Development Master Plan by the Horizon 2025.
(2) Methodology The Household Survey covered all five departments of the Study Area (Table 4.2.17), which comprises the entirety of Dakar Region (including the departments of Dakar, Guédiawaye, Pikine and Rufisque) as well as certain contiguous zones of the departments of Thiès and Mbour in Thiès Region (specifically, the communes of Keur Moussa and Pout in Thiès Department, and the communes of Diass, Sindia and Popenguine in Mbour Department).
Table 4.2.17 Areas for the Household Survey and the Number of Samples Region Department Zone Samples Dakar Thiès 1) Dakar Department Center * 5 Dept. 150 2) Guédiawaye Department Emergent 150 3) Pikine Department (Newly Developed Area) zones 4) Rufisque Department *5 Dept. 5) Thiès Department Irregular 150 Communes: Keur Moussa, Pout (Informal Settlements)* 5 Dept. Mbour Department: Communes: Diass, Sindia, Popenguine Total 2,250 Note: Sample size was determined by: confidence level 95% and margin of error (confidence interval) ±5%; 450 samples were collected for each department. Source: JICA Study Team The following approaches were taken in order to control the quality of data.
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1) Sample Selection
A sample average can be used to estimate the average of the whole population. Generally speaking, a confidence level of 95% and a margin of error ±5% is assumed to give a reasonably accurate estimation of the sample size for a social survey. This means that the probability that the sample data represent the average of the whole population with a margin of error ±5% is 95%. With these sample-size determination criteria, generally speaking, a sample size of 400 is sufficient for any population larger than 100,000 to estimate the whole population average. This is also realistic for practical reasons, when implementing a social survey with budgetary and time constraints. A precalculated table that can help us to see the necessary minimum sample size is shown below.
Table 4.2.18 Necessary Sample Size by Different Margins of Error Population Confidence interval ±3% ±5% ±10% 500 345 220 80 1,000 525 285 90 5,000 910 370 100 10,000 1,000 385 100 100,000 1,100 400 100 1,000,000 1,100 400 100 10,000,000 1,110 400 100
1.962 * (p) * (1-p) Sample Size n = c 2 Population proportion p=0.5 Confidence interval c=±5% Source: JICA Study Team Fifty samples out of 150 for each zone were collected from the young generation, who were aged between 16 and 25. This aspect was taken into consideration for sampling, as those people will make up the main productive and responsible population that will constitute the society by 2035.
2) Surveyor Recruitment The surveyors were recruited as much as possible from the respective local areas, in order to facilitate communication between the respondents and the understanding of local conditions that inform the questions and answers.
(3) Social Survey Results Highlights The following trends in perception of the social conditions were identified from the household survey. Graphical features are shown for selected key questions of each topic.
1) Household Head Attributes
The majority (58%) of women were surveyed, partially explained by the presence of housewives and / or the absence of men during working hours. Dakar centre is the only zone in the whole Study Area where more men were surveyed (57%). A potential rational is the higher male employment ratio in Dakar centre due to the importance of the tertiary sector.
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Persons aged between 20 and 29 years old constitute the most represented age group in this survey (29% in average). It should be noted that there is a slightly higher youth ratio in the Rufisque department (15% compared to 10% on average in the other departments), and that Dakar centre is the only zone where a majoriy of people above 60 (29%) were surveyed. In all departments except Thiès/Mbour, the household size of 6 to 10 persons is the most represented (more than 40% of the households on average). The job categories the most represented in the Study Area are ‘Service, shop, or market sales worker’ and ‘Housewife’ (equally represented at 21% each) and ‘Student (secondary)’ (15%), which would be expected in an urban area. Approximately 80% of the households in Dakar and Thies / Mbour Departments and 70% in Guédiawaye, Pikine and Rufisque Departments have been established for more than 10 years. This potentially reflects more recent arrivals in the latter departments. The two main accommodation types are either ‘House’ or ‘Rented property’. House accommodation is hghest in Thiès / Mbour (95%) and lowest in Guédiawaye (66%). Owning the property is most common in Thiès/Mbour (89%) and Dakar (73%). 57% of the surveyed population of Rufisque had “other” systems in place (i.e. lived in the family’s house). Around 80% gave an ‘NA’ answer for the question of rent or loan for housing per month, either as they owned the property or were provided free accomodation. The range 20,000-50,001 FCFA is the most represented among the 20% of the remaining answers. In all departments except Thiès/Mbour, the total expenses of most households in central zones range between 200,000 and 500,000 FCFA/month, as do the majority of households in emergent and informal zones in Dakar and Guédiwaye departments. The range 100,000-200,000 FCFA/month is most common in Pikine and Rufisque departments. In Thiès/Mbour, the majority of the households in all zones spend between 100,000 and 200,000 FCFA/month. Most of the households surveyed (70%) like their commune – this feeling is the most expressed in Dakar centre (93%), and the least expressed in Rufisque irregular (29%). The most commonly used justification for the desire to move is ‘Other’, which often referred to the situation of a young woman soon to be married. 67% of the households located in the Dakar irregular zone did mention the lack of hygiene as primary reason.
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2) Urban Planning in Dakar Region
What are two most suitable images for future Dakar Region?
Irregular Peaceful Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Clean Irregular Emergent Greenery
Rufisque Centre Irregular Water Emergent
Pikine Centre Culture / heritage Irregular International / global Emergent aye
Guédiaw Centre Scientific / high-tech Irregular Emergent Development Dakar Centre No Response 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team The current master plan is not well known. On average 76 % of the respondents do not know about it. 80 % of the respondents are ‘happy’ and ‘more or less happy’ with current urban planning, compared to 66 % at the department level. Despite the above, 80 % of respondents identified challenges, 94 % at the department level. Clean and developed urban areas are desired in most departments in all zones. Notably Rufisque (29%) and Guédiawaye (21%) irregular wish to keep the image of culture and heritage.
3) Future Vision in the Department
How do you want your department to become in the future?
Irregular a. Residential area with Emergent green spaces Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular b. Business active area Emergent
Rufisque Centre c. Agricultural area Irregular Emergent d. International hub Pikine Centre Irregular e. Good transport system
ye Emergent Centre Guediawa Irregular f. Other Emergent Dakar Centre No response 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team
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Residential areas with green spaces (46 %) or business active areas (44 %) are the most favored future visions. In Thiès/Mbour business active area was most favored (74 %). 63 % of respondents approve the implementation of land use regulations to restrict land use. 90 % of the respondents are inclined to actively participate in or cooperate with city planning. However, only 44 % of respondents in central Dakar want to be involved.
4) Road/ Traffic
What problems do you have with the road/traffic conditions?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular a. Unpaved, muddy in rain, dusty in dry season Emergent b. No sidewalk, dangerous Rufisque Centre
Irregular c. Sidewalk is not adequate for Emergent pedestrians Pikine Centre d. Cars are speeding and dangerous Irregular e. A lots of on-street parking Emergent Centre Guediawaye f. Other Irregular Emergent Dakar Centre
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team
The key issues with regard to the road traffic are: 1) unpaved and muddy state of roads during rainy seasons (80 %), 2) inadequate sidewalks for pedestrians (22 %), 3) danger of speeding vehicles (16 %). 88 % of respondents note poor road conditions in their neighborhood. Over 90 % of respondents of Rufisque and Thiès/Mbour identify major road issues. The main means of transport: bus (75 %), taxi (11 %). In Thiès/Mbour: walking (26 %). The three key issues with public transport are: 1) overcrowded buses (66 %), 2) dangerous traffic (23 %) and 3) the distance to bus stops (17 %).
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5) Water
Do you have suffcient water for your household?
Irregular Emergent Thiès/ Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent
Rufisque Centre a. Not sufficient Irregular Emergent b. Sometimes not enough Pikine Centre c. Sufficient Irregular No Response Emergent aye
Guédiaw Centre Irregular Emergent Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team The average proportion of houses connected to the water supply network is 80 %. Guédiawaye’s irregular area (73 %) and Rufisque’s emergent area (75%) are lower than the average. Insufficient water quantity is a problem in Dakar’s emergent area (66 %) and Guédiawaye’s emergent area (41 %), as well as in all zones in Thiès/Mbour (46 %). 43 % of total respondents indicated sufficient access to water.
6) Sanitation
What are the problems with sewage?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Thiès Mbour Centre a. Offensive odour Irregular Emergent b. Disease
Rufisque Centre Irregular Emergent c. No space
Pikine Centre Irregular d. Sewage is spread during Emergent aye floods Centre Guédiaw Irregular e. Other Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team
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75 % of surveyed respondents in Dakar are connected to the sewerage system. In other departments, the most used sanitation JICA Study Team 2014 system is the septic tank (66 %). More than 72 % of the respondents mention sanitation issues: 91 % of the respondents in Thiès/Mbour and 77 % in Rufisque. Key sanitation issues are: offensive odors (49 %) and the sewage spread during floods (33 %).
7) Solid Waste
What are the problems with solid waste?
Irregular Emergent a. Offensive odour Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent b. Littering problem
Rufisque Centre Irregular Emergent c. Hygiene problem Pikine Centre Irregular Emergent aye d. Very far garbage
Guédiaw Centre collection point Irregular Emergent Dakar Centre e. Other 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team The garbage collection system appears satisfactory for 74 % of the respondents in the region, while 67 % of respondents in Thiès/Mbour acknowledge issues with the collection system. The perception of the solid waste problem is varied: 87 % of the respondents in Thiès/Mbour have problems with solid waste, differing from Dakar (10 %), Pikine (8 %), Guédiawaye (28 %) and Rufisque (45 %). Key perceived problems are: 1) littering (96 %), 2) hygiene (70 %) and 3) offensive odors (58 %).
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8) Electricity
What problems do you have electricity supply?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent a. Frequent blackout
Rufisque Centre b. Low voltage Irregular Emergent c. Expensive Pikine Centre d. Other Irregular Emergent Not Applicable aye
Guédiaw Centre No Response Irregular Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team 94 % of the respondents have access to electricity. In Thiès/Mbour emergent area, only 66 % of the respondents are electrified. 92 % of the respondents mention electricity problems that need improvement. The two key issues are the cost of electricity (77 %) and the frequent blackouts (47 %).
9) Education Primary school
What problems do you have with primary schools?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre a. Facility not sufficient Irregular Emergent b. Level of teachers Centre Rufisque Irregular c. Teaching materials not Emergent sufficient
Pikine Centre d. Expensive Irregular Emergent e. Other aye Centre Guédiaw Irregular Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team 80 % of the respondents have a primary school close by in their neighborhoods, but respondents in Pikine’s irregular area (45 %) and Guédiawaye’s irregular area (89 %) perceive that the primary school is far away.
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Problems identified by the respondents are: insufficient school facilities (50 %), especially in Thiès/Mbour (80 %), the level of teachers in Dakar (66 %), the lack of teaching materials in Thiès/Mbour (54 %). Secondary school
What problems do you have with secondary schools?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre a. Facility not sufficient Irregular Emergent b. Level of teachers
Rufisque Centre Irregular Emergent c. Teaching materials not
Pikine Centre sufficient Irregular d. Expensive Emergent aye
Guédiaw Centre Irregular e. Other Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team 50 % of the respondents have secondary schools close by in their neighborhoods, while 43 % of the respondents perceive that a secondary school is far away. The lack of secondary school was especially mentioned in the irregular zone of Dakar and the center of Thiès/Mbour. Problems identified by the respondents are: insufficient school facilities (50 %) with the exception of Dakar (12 %), the level of teachers in Dakar (52 %), the lack of teaching materials in Thiès/Mbour (63 %) as well as the frequent number of strikes (22 %). Vocational training
What are the vocational skills you want to learn?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre a. Computer / IT Irregular Emergent b. Electricity
Rufisque Centre c. metal technicians Irregular Emergent d. Foreign language Pikine Centre e. Auto mechanic Irregular Emergent f. Other aye
Guédiaw Centre Not Applicable Irregular Emergent No Response Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team
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73 % of the respondents have not received vocational training. The lowest rates are found in Guédiawaye’s irregular zone (9 %) and Pikine’s irregular zone (13 %). 73 % of the respondents wish to receive vocational training. In Thiès/Mbour an average of nine persons out of 10 wish to develop new skills. 63 % of the respondents did not have opportunities for vocational training courses. Of the 7 % with access to some opportunities, 33 % live in central Dakar or emergent zones, while 79 % of the respondents in Pikine’s irregular zone do have opportunities, most likely through apprenticeships. In terms of areas of interest for skills acquisition, 52 % of the respondents had interests in marketing, accounting, hairdressing or catering, while the proportions for computer/IT and foreign language were 13% and 4% respectively.
10) Health
What problems do you have with health services?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre a. Long waiting hours Irregular Emergent
Rufisque Centre b. Low level of medical Irregular services Emergent
Pikine Centre Irregular c. Expensive Emergent aye Centre Guédiaw Irregular d. Other Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team 72 % of the respondents know of a health facility (clinic or health center) within walking distance from their homes; 14 % of the respondents in Thiès/Mbour center do not have a health facility in their neighborhoods. 68 % of the respondents mention existing problems with the health facilities located in their neighborhoods. Three key issues are: the low level of services (50 %), expense (40 %) and long waiting hours (31 %).
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11) Security
Do you have burglar, pickpockets, violence in your area?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent a. Problem Centre Rufisque Irregular b. A little problem Emergent Pikine Centre c. No problem Irregular Emergent aye No Response Centre Guédiaw Irregular Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team At least 70 % of the respondents recognize security as a problem. Rufisque irregular zone is considered by its inhabitants as the safest place, while Pikine’s emergent area appears the most dangerous.
12) Community
Does your community resolve problems through community initiatives?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent Centre Rufisque a. No Irregular Emergent b. Sometimes
Pikine Centre c. We often do it Irregular Emergent No Response aye Centre Guédiaw Irregular Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team 64 % of the respondents know about one community-based organization in their neighborhoods. In the central and emergent zones of Dakar 70 % of the respondents do not mention the existence of such organization. All departments, except Dakar, point out the lack of community initiatives to solve local problems (70 %), and 73 % of the respondents share the feeling of not having an effective leadership.
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95 % of the respondents do not mention any conflicts among tribes/religions in their neighborhoods.
13) Environment/ Land use
Do you have flood or inundation problems in your area?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent a. Problem
Rufisque Centre Irregular b. A little problem Emergent
Pikine Centre c. No problem Irregular No Response Emergent aye
Guédiaw Centre Irregular Emergent Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team 64 % of the respondents agree that agriculture is threatened by urban expansion, rising to 80 % or above in Dakar, Rufisque and Thiès/Mbour, though lower in Guédiawaye (50 %) and Pikine (28 %). 77 % of the respondents perceived a problem with decreasing green spaces in their neighborhood, ranging from 98 % in Thiès/Mbour to 56 % in Pikine. In Pikine center, a decrease in green spaces is not considered as a big issue as in other areas as indicated by its higher proportion of " no problem" at 43%. The areas most affected by floods are Pikine’s emergent zone (73 %), Thiès/Mbour’s central and emergent zones (67.5 %) and Rufisque’s emergent zone (61 %).
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14) Ownership
If it is your own land, is it registered?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent a. No Rufisque Centre Irregular b. Yes Emergent Pikine Centre Not Own the Land Irregular Emergent No Response aye
Guédiaw Centre Irregular Emergent Dakar Centre 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team 75 % of the respondents have been established in the area for more than 10 years, while 40 % of the respondents in the central zones of Guédiawaye, Pikine and Rufisque departments have been established for less than five or 10 years. Most of the respondents are living on their own land (50 %), followed by a family-owned house (27 %) and rented land (22 %). In case the land is owned, the land has been acquired through a direct purchase (40 %) or inheritance (29 %). In Thiès/Mbour, 58 % of the respondents acquire the land by inheritance. 59 % of the respondents register their lands. In Thiès/Mbour over 30 % of respondents do not register.
15) Employment/ Household Finance
Does your income cover the necessity of your family?
Irregular Emergent Thiès / Mbour Centre Irregular Emergent a. Not sufficient
Rufisque Centre Irregular b. Sometimes Emergent insufficient Pikine Centre c. Sufficient Irregular Emergent aye d. No Response
Guédiaw Centre Irregular Emergent
Dakar Centre 0% 50% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team
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60 % of the respondents do have a regular income source. 10 % of the respondents are capable of covering their family expenses with their current income level. The 90 % remaining are not capable of covering these expenses.
16) Priority of the Problems
What are priority problems in your area?
Irregular Road / traffic Emergent Water Thiès / Mbour Centre Sanitation Irregular Solid waste Emergent Centre Electricity Rufisque Irregular Education Emergent Health Pikine Centre Security Irregular Community Emergent aye Environment Centre Guédiaw Irregular Land/house Emergent Employment Dakar Centre No Response 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: JICA Study Team Employment (17 %), security (15 %) and road/traffic (13 %) are the most important problems.
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CHAPTER 5 SUSTAINABILITY DIAGNOSIS
5.1 Objective and Framework
The objective of a sustainability diagnosis is to clarify the baseline condition of sustainability in the Study Area. The findings will be analyzed and fed into the master plan preparation. The master plan to be prepared, therefore, will be one that would propose the development of Dakar and the adjacent area in a sustainable manner. This assessment is also an endeavor to develop a methodology for sustainability diagnosis for which no standard method has yet been established. The United Nations defines “sustainable development” as follows: “a sustainable society meets the needs of the present generation without sacrificing the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” It implies the importance of maintaining the global environment in a desirable condition, which is the very fundamental condition to ensure sustainability of a society and its cities. In the present study, sustainable development is defined as follows, paraphrasing this UN definition: “Sustainable” means development will continue for the present and future generations, by minimizing the load on the regional and global environment. “Development” means a state of improved quality of life is ensured. Sustainable development for the Study Area, therefore, means that Dakar and the adjacent area will continually ensure a better quality of life for the people and their descendants, minimizing the load on the regional and global environment. A variety of endeavors to assess the sustainable development of a city have been made all over the world. JICA conducted a research study entitled A Research on Sustainable Cities in Development Countries from 2012 to 2013. The present study applies the framework tentatively proposed by this JICA research. It proposes to assess the sustainability of a city from the six perspectives shown below:
Management of various risks brought about by rapid changes (environment, natural disasters, economy, society) Inclusiveness (poverty reduction, slum areas, socially vulnerable people) Attractiveness (greenery, amenity, scenery, historical and tourism resources) Urban management capability and urban infrastructures (planning and implementing capabilities, land management, urban planning system, human resource development, finance, service level of urban infrastructures) Participation (traditional practices and official systems at planning and implementation stages) Broad perspective beyond administrative and national boundaries (competitiveness) The individual elements mentioned above are not new in the urban planning field. They have been analyzed and measures proposed as important components of urban development plans, but rahter individually. The significance of a sustainability diagnosis with these components lies rather in packaging them into a frame and applying it to a city as a whole from the sustainability perspective, than dealing with each component individually. Data for a sustainability diagnosis were collected in a number of ways: information obtained at the stakeholder meetings held in September-October 2014, statistical data and the findings by the JICA Study Team experts.
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5.2 Sustainability Diagnosis
Table 5.2.1 presents the result of the sustainability diagnosis.
Table 5.2.1 Result of Sustainability Diagnosis 1. Management of Risks Caused by Rapid Changes 1.1 (Global Environment)
Environment The total GHG emission in Senegal was about 1.6 ton CO2e per person per year in 2011, as compared with the world average of 6.29 ton CO2e and the African average of 2.58 ton th th CO2e. It ranked 30 from bottom among 185 nations in the world and 19 from bottom among 47 African countries (estimated based on the data in http://cait.wri.org). (1) The total GHG emission in Dakar Region is reported to be 15,786,000 ton CO2e . The major sources are the energy industry (30%), transportation (16%), residential (15%) and industrial processes (12%). The per capita GHG emission estimated for the Study Area is reported to be 5.03 ton CO2e. (Regional Environment) Erosion, drought, population pressure and poor farming techniques represent the major causes of environmental damage to pasture land and result in lower soil fertility. There are limited monitoring stations for air quality according to data for Dakar and no data are available for Thiès. The available data indicate poor air quality in Dakar during the dry season, especially for particulates. It is found that there are some industries causing pollution and some polluting industries are located close to houses. The high percentage of old cars in use is also highlighted as one of the main causes of air pollution. Illegal activities that damage the environment, such as coastal sand extraction and tree cutting, are reported. 1.2 Flooding is the most serious natural disaster issue in the Study Area. Coastal hazards, such Natural as coastal erosion and high tide, are natural disasters affecting the coastal area. disasters Severe floods in recent years happened in 2005, 2009 and 2012. The damage values are reported to be 82 million US$ in 2009 and 10 million US$ in 2012. The flood risk increased largely due to conversion of the traditionally uninhabited lowland areas into residential areas for migrants evacuating rural areas suffering from droughts. To cope with the situation, the Senegalese government is implementing a project called PROGEP in Guédiawaye Department and Pikine Department with the assistance of the World Bank. While PROGEP is expected to significantly reduce the flood risk in these departments, there will be residual flood risks caused by floods on a larger scale than planned, as well as in the newly urbanized areas in Rufisque Department and the areas surrounding the AIDB in Thiès Region. Non-structural measures such as land use control will be effective preventive measures to minimize the flood risk. Coastal hazard is another natural disaster threat in the Study Area. There are various degrees of coastal erosion, among which the most severe case is found in Pete Côte, where the rate of erosion is reported to be 1.2 m per year. Land use control to prohibit habitation of the coastal areas below a certain altitude would be an effective preventive measure to minimize the coastal hazard risk. The average annual number of deaths by natural hazards in Senegal was 0.4 persons per one million population between 2003 and 2012, which was 21st among 33 Sub-Saharan African countries and seventh among 10 ECOWAS countries for which data were available (7). There are countries where the situation is more serious than Senegal. 1.3 Senegal’s economy has been growing steadily, but at rates lower than other West African Global countries (3 to 4% per year), largely due to the dominance of the low-productivity economy informal sector. The proportion of export to GDP was 20.3% in 2014, which was lower than the world average at 24.3% and lower than that of many African countries that export natural
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resources, whose proportions are often more than 40% (Global Note homepage). The economic growth rate in 2009 when the worldwide recession occurred was 2.9%, a decline of only 0.7% from the previous year, indicating relatively low sensitivity to the change in the world economy. The weak linkage of Senegal’s economy with the world economy is a strength in this case, but also a weakness. Inflation was low at 2.4% per year between 2010 and 2012, which is 26th among 28 Sub-Saharan countries and seventh among eight ECOWAS countries for which data were available (7). Africa is the dominant export destination (69%), while exports to Europe (12%), the Americas (0.1%) and Asia (14%) are low. Mali is the largest export destination in Africa, accounting for 7.8% of the total export value of Senegal in 2011. 1.4 An international comparison indicates a relatively good security situation in Senegal. Social risk Senegal is positioned in fifth place among 33 sub-Saharan countries and third among 10 ECOWAS countries for which data were available, in terms of the number of homicides per 100,000 population in 2010 (7). The rate for Senegal was 8.7 homicides per 100,000 population, following Niger (3.8) and Mali (8.0), while those of low-income countries in the world and Côte d’Ivoire were 14.5 and 56.9, respectively. From the perspective of people on the ground, however, security is a big problem in the Study Area. The social survey indicated that people cited security as the second most important issue (43%), following employment problems (51%), in response to the question asking them to select the three most serious problems out of the 12 issues shown. In the same survey, those stating that they have experienced security problems such as burglary, pickpocketing and violence accounted for 88%. Security issues were also raised in the stakeholder meeting. The types of problems were more varied, including road safety, dilapidated buildings, vandalism of public facilities such as power, sewage and amenity facilities, cable fires caused by irregular connections to the power system and the lack of a fire brigade. 1.5 Senegal is said to be a country where different ethnic groups live together peacefully. This Ethnic conflict view is endorsed by the social survey. Those people saying they have experienced no ethnic conflict account for 95% in the Study Area, with almost no differences among departments. 2. Inclusiveness 2.1 The social survey revealed that the incidence of poverty in the Study Area is 22% for the Poverty poverty line assumed at $1.25 PPP per person per day* and 44% at $2.00 PPP per person per day. The incidence of poverty is higher in irregular settlements than in the emerging area and central area: for $1.25 PPP, irregular 32%, emerging 18%, center 16%; for $2.00 PPP, irregular 62%, emerging 40%, center 28%. PPP: purchasing power parity calculated at 283 FCFA per US$ The incidence of poverty in Senegal was 68% with the poverty line at $2.50 PPP in 2010, which was 23rd from the top in Sub-Saharan Africa and seventh from the top among 10 ECOWAS countries. The Gini coefficient, an indicator of income/expenditure disparity, was 0.399 for the Study Area in terms of household expenditure per person according to the result of the social survey. The Gini coefficient for Senegal was 0.400 in 2011, which was 18th from top among 30 Sub-Saharan African countries and sixth from the top among 13 ECOWAS countries (7). A further increase in the Gini coefficient would be undesirable considering that 0.400 is the generally perceived threshold level, beyond which social instability may accelerate. 2.2 (Education) Basic human In terms of access to education, Senegal is placed at a level higher than the regional needs average. The literacy rate of Senegal was 52% in 2013, fifth among 11 countries, whereas the primary school enrollment rate at 73% was fourth among 12 countries in West Africa
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for which data were available. In the Study Area, the level of access to primary school varies among areas; more problems in access to primary school are found in irregular settlements. On average, people citing access to primary school as a problem accounted for 21%, while the proportion is higher at 33% for residents of irregular settlements. The areas with especially severe access problems are Guédiawaye’s irregular area (89%) and Pikine’s irregular area (45%). Those people reporting problems with primary school account for 69% in the Study Area. The problems cited are insufficient facilities (50%), poor-quality teachers (34%), insufficient teaching materials (31%) and high cost (8%). (Health Service) Senegal is placed relatively high among West African countries in terms of access to health services. For coverage of prenatal care for pregnant women, adopted as the indicator representing the health service as a whole, the rate of 93% in 2013 was fourth among 14 West African countries for which data are available. Overall, those people who think health facilities are too far away account for 26%. There are, however, variations among areas in terms of access to health care services in the Study Area. While people with health care facilities within walking distance account for 72% in the Study Area on average, there are some areas where access is difficult, such as Dakar’s central area, Guédiawaye’s irregular area and the Thiès/Mbour irregular area, in which the proportions of people stating that health care facilities are too far away account for 52%, 46% and 50%, respectively. Those people who think there are problems with health services account for 27% on average in the Study Area. The problems they point to are the low level of medical service (50%), high cost (40%) and long walking times (31%). 2.3 Public transportation accounted for 66% of all trips in 2001 (2). Public Those people finding problems with public transport account for 87% in the Study Area. transportation The proportion in irregular settlements is higher, at 93%. Overall, “too crowded” was cited by 75%, followed by “dangerous driving” (27%), “too far to bus stop” (20%) and “too little circulation” (8%). Access problems seem to be more serious in irregular settlements, with higher proportions of “too far to bus stop” at 27% and “too little circulation” at 12%. 2.4 Senegal is a pioneer in implementing a cooperative housing system in West Africa. The Social housing housing cooperatives of Senegal contribute a great deal to the national economy and especially provide affordable homes for low-income families. Housing affordability is limited, given the high price of land and the market focus of the few developers on the very rich. Most housing in Senegal (about 80% of urban housing) is self-built, without an architect, and at a total cost of less than 30 million FCFA (US$ 56,679). Informal settlements account for 25% of urban spaces in Senegal and 30% of inhabited areas in Dakar. According to ANSD’s report, developers implemented 45 housing construction programs between 2000 and 2009. Around 9,500 housing units were built in Dakar Region by these projects. Demand for housing is estimated at 200,000 units with an annual increase of 10%. There are several constraints on the housing supply, especially for low-income earners. A lack of formal market players, limited availability of serviced land, limited availability of relevant financial products, high construction costs and weak policy all constrain the market. In response to these challenges, the government introduced its “one family one roof” initiative, focusing on the affordable housing market to address the demand for housing. The provisions in the program include free housing and land, tax breaks and a range of subsidies, which are offered to homebuyers who purchase housing that costs less than US$ 15,000. Implementation is slow, however, and the supply of housing insufficient. A land regularization program adopted by the government in 1991 is equally slow: by 2010,
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only 6,469 plots had been regularized. 2.5 Senegal is in a relatively favorable situation in terms of elderly protection. The proportion Social safety of adults older than 60 years who are covered by social insurance was 34.5% in 2010, net which was second among the 24 Sub-Saharan countries for which data were available, after only South Africa (81.7%) (7). Senegal was in the top position among nine ECOWAS countries for which data were available, followed by Mali at 20%. The rates for other countries were far lower: Côte d’Ivoire at 6.6% and Ghana at 8.1%, for example. 3. Attractiveness 3.1 The attractiveness of Dakar as an investment location can be measured based on Doing Investment Business in Senegal 2015 (7), prepared by the World Bank, which is an annual report on the environment business environment of countries around the world. Dakar could be regarded as representing Senegal as an investment destination. The investment environment of Dakar is not yet favorable, as indicated by Senegal’s rank of 161st among 189 countries in the world in terms of business environment. It was lower than neighboring countries such as Ghana (70th), Mali (146th), Côte d’Ivoire (147th), Togo (149th) and Cameroon (158th) and higher than Guinea (169th). Among the 10 factors evaluated for Senegal, those factors ranking lower than 161st were “getting electricity” (183rd), “registering property” (167th) and “paying tax” (183rd). These factors especially require improvements to enhance the attractiveness of Dakar as an investment destination. Other factors ranked as follows: “starting a business” (90th), “dealing with construction permits” (151st), “getting credit” (131st), “protecting minority investors” (122nd), “trading across borders” (79th), “enforcing contracts” (142nd) and “resolving insolvency” (99th). 3.2 The level of attractiveness in terms of park areas in the situation of the Study Area is Urban park unfavorable. The park area in the Study Area is 470,000 m2, which is equivalent to 0.15 m2 per person. This level is significantly lower than other cities: Tokyo (2.9 m2/person), Kobe (16.5 m2/person, largest among the major cities in Japan), Paris (11.8 m2/person), New York (29.3 m2/person) and London (26.9 m2/person). The park area per person in Dakar Department is 0.40 m2 per person, followed by that in Rufisque at 0.02 m2 per person. There are no parks identified in the departments of Guédiawaye and Pikine, nor the Thiès/Mbour part of the Study Area. 3.3 People are not happy with the lack of amenity facilities such as community stadiums, Amenities multipurpose playgrounds, a national library, entertainment buildings and modern Daaras (Koranic schools), as revealed by the social survey. 3.4 Senegal has not been successful in fully tapping its rich tourism resources, which include Tourism seven World Heritage Sites. An international comparison by the World Economic Forum (5) places Senegal in 107th position among 140 countries in the world. It is 10th among 31 Sub-Saharan counties and first among nine ECOWAS countries. It is judged that, while Senegal has better human, cultural and natural resources (88th), its regulatory framework (111th) and business environment and infrastructure (113th) lag behind. The number of international visitors to Senegal was about 900,000 in 2010, the second highest in West Africa after Nigeria. The total expenditure related to tourism, at 309 billion FCFA, is equivalent to 6% of GDP, which is similar to West Africa at 5.9%. 4. Urban Management Capacity and Urban Infrastructures 4.1 Planning: Urban The contents of planning documents are not fixed for each type of plan and thus do not planning effectively secure urban management in a systematic way. system Periodical revision of planning documents is not legally established, causing budget shortages for necessary revision works. The involvement of local communities in the planning process has not been sufficient, causing opposition to the master plan from some groups, as well as difficulties in implementation of key infrastructure, as the condition of the project site was not well understood. (Example: some truck infrastructures were planned on ongoing subdivision sites.) Management and control
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The problem analysis conducted in the Study revealed a number of problems causing ineffectiveness of the ongoing 2025 master plan, as follows: The master plan is not well respected by the population due to the limited knowledge of people about the master plan, the shortcomings of the master plan and the long time needed for approval of the master plan. The master plan is not well equipped with supporting tools. For example, there is an absence of PUDs, inadequate technical tools, an inefficient land tenure system, lack of a common database for government departments and organizations, ineffective laws and regulations and ineffective building control. The master plan is sometimes not observed by government bodies adequately. Local governments do not follow the master plan and central government organizations are not able to follow the master plan fully. There have been rapid changes in the political and social environment, which, as external factors, were rather difficult to be controlled. 4.2 (Villes/communes) Personnel A villes and communes survey conducted in December 2014 collected information from capability for four villes and 57 communes in the Study Area on their organizational situation urban planning concerning urban planning and management. It clarified that the majority of the villes and and management communes have no section responsible for urban planning (59%) or urban management (54%). It is obvious from this result that they have to depend on DUA for preparing a PDU and PUD. The survey revealed that four villes/communes have prepared PDU, although they have not been approved by the President according to DUA. The three most important issues concerning infrastructure are: (i) sewerage, (ii) flood prevention/drainage and (iii) water supply, in order of importance according to the survey. The villes and communes perceive (i) staff training for urban planning and control, (ii) budget for urban planning and control, (iii) technology acquisition of their staff and (iv) enhancement of the number of staff for urban planning and control as the four most important issues for the Decentralization Act III to be effective. (DUA) The capability level of the DUA officers is still considered too low for sustainable urban development of the Study Area. Interview surveys were conducted at the beginning and end of the Study with DUA officers in order to assess the baseline levels of the DUA officers and the effect of the capacity development activities undertaken in the Study. The DUA officers were requested to evaluate their capability levels for 22 subjects concerning urban planning. The scores applied were “4” for “able to guide and supervise local government by him/herself”, “3” for “able to guide and supervise local government with support of external resources such as experts, professors and consultants”, “2” for “able to coordinate with related organizations, though knowledge and skills are insufficient to deeply understand planning issues” and “1” for “unable to execute a task due to lack of knowledge and skill”. The average score for all 22 subjects by self-evaluation was 2.3 at the beginning and 2.7 at the end, a rise of 0.4. The attainment at the end was 90% of the average target level of 3.0 (2.7 divided by 3.0). The attainment for all subjects exceeded 80%, except for SEA, which was 65%. While the above result was fairly positive, there is a strong need to further enhance the capacity of the DUA officers. A long process of continuous training and application to real situations would be needed before the DUA officers are able to prepare professional urban plans and manage urban development properly. 4.3 The financial base of local governments is not strong enough to allocate sufficient budget Financial for the preparation of PDUs and PUDs, in spite of the mandate given under the capability Decentralization Act III. The annual budget of DUA for 2014 was 1.45 million US$, 98.8% of which is the planning budget, including procurement, and the remaining 1.2% is for office operation and management.
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4.4 Urban infrastructures 4.4.1 The transportation sector in the Study Area is characterized by deteriorating traffic Transport congestion and environmental problems, exacerbated by the monopolar urban structure centering on Dakar Department and the rapid increase in automobile traffic. The road system and public transportation have not been able to accommodate the increasing transportation demand. The lack of parking space in central Dakar is worsening the situation. In terms of the level of road infrastructure development, Senegal is in a relatively strong position among ECOWAS countries. The proportion of paved roads is 35.5% in Senegal, second among 17 Sub-Saharan countries and first among six ECOWAS countries for which data were available. The number of passengers killed per 100,000 population is 1.43, which is 33rd among 42 Sub-Saharan countries and ninth among 11 ECOWAS countries, indicting relatively good safety conditions. The road density of Dakar is 1.013 km per km2, which is relatively low compared with that found in other African cities. For instance, Lagos Metropolitan Area, Greater Maputo and Greater Accra, which are several times larger than Dakar Region in terms of land area, have road densities of 1.542, 1.598 and 2.479 km per km2, respectively. The modal split of public transportation is 66%. Public bus is the main mode of public transportation in the Study Area. The total number of buses, as far as it can be confirmed, is 2,123 vehicles (414 DDD buses and 1,709 AFTU buses), which is equivalent to 0.53 vehicles per 1,000 population. This level is lower than that of Abidjan, at 2.0 vehicles per 1,000 population. As an example of large cities of similar size to Dakar in developed countries, that of Yokohama, the second largest city in Japan with a population of 3.71 million in 2014, is 0.2 vehicles per 1,000 population. It seems that the problem with the bus service in Dakar is more to do with the quality than quantity. The lack of parking space in the built-up urban areas results in rampant street parking, causing traffic jams. 4.4.2 In terms of the availability of water resources, the Study Area is vulnerable. Annual Water precipitation for Senegal and the Study Area is 694 mm and 450 mm, respectively, which resources is 79% and 51% of the world average of 880 mm. The average precipitation in Africa is 678 mm, similar to Senegal. The limited availability of water resources is more sharply illustrated by precipitation per capita. For Senegal and the Study Area it is 10,107 m3 and 115 m3 per person per year, respectively, which is 60% and 0.7% of the world average of 16,758 m3 per person per year (8). It is equivalent to 45% and 0.5% of the African average of 22,327 m3 per person per year. Reflecting the limited water resources available in the Study Area, the internal sources of piped water supply account for only 9.4% (11.5 million m3 per year) of the total piped water supply, whereas the balance of 111.2 million m3 per year is fulfilled by water supply from outside: Lake Guiers and four groundwater sources along the pipeline from Lake Guiers to Dakar. The vulnerability lies in the scarcity of water resources within the Study Area and the high dependence on a single water source system, which is distant from Dakar: it is more than 200 km from Dakar to Lake Guiers. The violent protests by some citizens in November 2013, triggered by a two-week water supply service stoppage due to damage to KMS water purification plant and water conveyance pipeline, are a typical example of this vulnerability. 4.4.3 The water supply condition in the Study Area is generally favorable. Service coverage is Water supply almost 100% in the Study Area, except the part of Thiès Region where it is 91%. House connection is high at 96% in Dakar, Guédiawaye and Pikine, 88% in Rufisque and 79% in Thiès Region. The water supply service is provided on a PPP basis, resulting in a high cost recovery ratio of 98%. The rate of conformity to biological water quality standards is 91%. The major challenge is to reduce the non-revenue water, which is 28.9% at present.
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4.4.4 The situation of sewerage and sanitation in the Study Area is not favorable in terms of Sewerage and service coverage, wastewater quality and industrial pollution. The service coverage of the sanitation sewerage system in Dakar Region is only 28%. Those dependent on on-site sanitation facilities, such as improved toilets, account for 63%. The remaining 18% have no hygienic toilet or no toilet. The qualities of wastewater discharged by the existing sewage treatment facilities do not conform to the government standard established following the WHO standard (SS: standard 50 mg/l, actual 73 to 291 mg/l, BOD5: standard 40 mg/l, actual 85 to 216 mg/l, 3 CODCr: standard 100 mg/l, actual 165 to 659 mg/l, fecal coliform: standard 2*10 μ 100 ml, actual 5.8*104 to 7.9*105). Hann Bay suffers from severe contamination of the seawater by untreated wastewater discharged by the existing industries along the coastal area. 4.4.5 The solid waste management system in the Study Area has a serious problem with garbage Solid waste disposal. The existing Mbeubeuss landfill site was causing serious environmental and management social problems due to open dumping. The newly-established Sindia landfill site has been suspended due to the opposition of local residents. The present service coverage ratios of solid waste collection are 90% in Dakar Department, 80% in Guédiawaye Department, 60% in Pikine Department, 40% in Rufisque Department and 15% in Thiès/Mbour Department. 4.4.6 The biggest problem with the electricity and renewable energy sector in Senegal is the Electricity and high price of electricity due to diesel generation using heavy oil. The electricity generation renewable cost by diesel is 170 to 190 FCFA per kWh (29-32 US cents per kWh, applying 594.04 energy FCFA =US$1), which is higher than heavy oil thermal generation (1.9 times), natural gas
thermal generation (2.4 times), coal thermal generation (5.1 times) and imported hydropower generation (5.3 times). 4.5 The financial base of DUA and local governments is not strong enough to allocate Financial sufficient budget for the preparation of PDUs and PUDs, which is designated in urban capability planning law. 5. Participation 5.1 Although urban planning law mandates the participation of local residents in the Official preparation process of PDU and PUD, it has not been practiced. Lack of participation of participation local residents and businesses has limited the effectiveness of the master plans in the past. system 5.2 The residents in the Study Area are highly positive about participation, as indicated by the Unofficial social survey. Those respondents revealing their intention for active participation in urban participation planning account for 66%, whereas those saying they will not take a lead, but are ready to system cooperate, are 7%. Combining these, the residents active and ready for participation account for 73%. 6. National, International and Inter-regional Perspective 6.1 Senegal is in a favorable position in international communication infrastructure. The International number of fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants was at 0.76 in 2013, communication positioned seventh among 41 Sub-Sahara African countries and second among 15 infrastructure ECOWAS countries (6). The proportion of people using the internet was also high: 20.9% of people use the internet in Senegal, which was the third highest, behind Nigeria (38%) and Cape Verde (37.5%). This level is significantly higher than some ECOWAS countries in a competitive position, such as Côte d’Ivoire (2.6%) and Ghana (12.3%). For the whole world, however, Senegal’s status in ICT is still low. It is ranked 152nd and 143rd in terms of ICT infrastructure coverage and individual internet use, respectively. 6.2 Upper level plans are available for a socioeconomic plan at a national level and a spatial National and development plan at an inter-regional level, but not for a spatial development plan at a regional national level, as shown below. Sustainability will be upgraded in the event that a national planning spatial development plan is prepared and provides a broad orientation for the spatial system development of the Study Area.
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A national land use plan titled “PNAT by the Horizon 2021” was prepared for the target year 2021 by the ANAT in 1999, according to the national territorial management law. Meanwhile, ANAT has launched the revision of the PNAT to upgrade it into a PNADT. PSE is the national initiative launched in 2014, providing a framework for Senegal’s socioeconomic development until 2035 and planning and implementing 27 flagship projects and 17 flagship reforms. The present master planning for the Study Area is an endeavor to realize PSE in Dakar and its neighboring area. ANAT developed a “Spatial Development and Planning Master Plan of the Triangle Dakar, Mbour and Thiès” in 2015, which includes the Study Area. The validation process is ongoing. This plan can be regarded as an SDAU, specified in the urban planning law, serving as an upper level plan for the master plan of the Study Area. 6.3 Sustainability in terms of the international cooperation mechanism is favorable. International Senegal is a member of ECOWAS, founded in 1975, aiming at the economic integration cooperation of the 15 member countries. ECOWAS plans to introduce a unified currency system for all mechanism of the member countries by 2020. Senegal Senegal is also a member of UEMOA, founded in 1994. UEMOA has eight member countries and aims at strengthening the competitiveness of the member countries, coordinating policies and creating a common market. Senegal is also a member State of the AU, NEPAD, the OMVS and the Organization for the OMVG. 6.4 Senegal’s position in logistics competitiveness is not high despite its geographical Regional hub advantage. The World Bank regularly publishes evaluations of the countries in the world function in in terms of their logistics competitiveness (4). Senegal is positioned at 108th among 171 West Africa countries in the world. Its rank is 10th among 40 Sub-Saharan countries and fifth among 12 ECOWAS countries for which data were available, following Nigeria (75th in the world and first in ECOWAS), Côte d’Ivoire (79th and second), Burkina Faso (98th and third) and Ghana (100th and fourth). While customs (second in ECOWAS) and international shipments (first) are rated higher, such indicators as timeliness (11th) and infrastructure (sixth) are rated lower. Logistics quality and competence (fifth) and tracking and tracing (fifth) were rated similar to the overall rating. Improvement in the logistics environment is needed to fully take advantage of Senegal’s situation. 6.5 Dakar was selected as a candidate city for GEF’s Sustainable City Development Scheme, International which aims to support initiatives of the cities promoting sustainable urban development initiative for through providing technical cooperation and funding assistance for pilot projects. The inter-city final selection is yet to be made. cooperation JICA’s International Cooperation Forum provides an opportunity for Senegalese urban planners to learn lessons from the experiences of Asian cities. Their enhanced understanding of sustainable urban development would ultimately contribute to enhancing the sustainability of the Study Area. Note: (1) Vulnerabilités de Region de Dakar au Changement Climatiques, PCTI-Dakar, Region de Dakar, 2013. (2) Pages 3-63 of Progress Report (CETUD Household Travel Survey, 2000-2001). (3) Connecting to Compete 2014, Trade Logistics in the Global Economy, the Logistics Performance Index and its Indicators, World Bank. (4) Insight Report, The Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013, World Economic Forum. (5) World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators Database 2014 (18th Edition), December 2014, ITU (6) World Development Report 2014, World Bank. (7) Doing Business 2014 Senegal, World Bank. (8) Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan. Source: JICA Study Team
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5.3 Sustainability of the Study Area
Table 5.3.1 presents a summary of the sustainability of the Study Area. The factors analyzed in Table 5.2.1 were classified into those of high sustainability and low sustainability. The numbers of the factors under these two categories are shown in Table 5.3.1.
Table 5.3.1 Sustainability of the Study Area Number of indicator with Number of indicator with Indicator Overall high sustainability low sustainability 1. Management of risks caused 2 (1) 4 (2) Low by rapid changes 2. Inclusiveness 1 (3) 3 (4) Low 3. Attractiveness 0 4 (5) Low 4. Urban management capacity 0 8 (6) Low and urban infrastructures 5. Participation 1 (7) 1 (8) Medium 6. National, international and 2 (9) 2 (10) Medium inter-regional perspective Total 6 22 Low (1) Note: CO2 emission, ethnic conflict. (2) Environment, natural disasters, global economy, social risk. (3) Elderly protection (social safety net). (4) Poverty, access to school in irregular settlements, access to health facilities in irregular settlements. (5) Investment environment, urban park, amenities, tourism. (6) Urban planning system, personal capability for urban planning and management, financial capability, transport, water supply, sewerage/sanitation, solid waste management, power. (7) Traditional participation. (8) Official participation. (9) International communication infrastructure, international cooperation (ECOWAS, UEMOA). (10) National and regional planning system, regional hub function in West Africa. Source: JICA Study Team There are 22 factors under the low sustainability category and six under the high sustainability category. Overall, the sustainability of the Study Area is assessed as low. A comparison of the findings above with the priorities people placed in terms of the needs for improving their lives gives us an insight into desirable directions for sustainability improvement. As mentioned before, the social survey clarified that the priorities people gave were: (i) employment, (ii) security and (iii) transport and road. Employment is related to global economy (under Indicator 1 in Table 5.3.1), poverty (Indicator 2) and investment environment (Indicator 3), while security is related to Indicator 1. Transport and road is related to Indicator 4. It is found that all three issues people think important are assessed as low sustainability factors. It may be an effective strategy to focus on these factors assessed as having low sustainability as a means of improving the sustainability of the Study Area from the people’s perspective. In an effort to enhance the sustainability of the Study Area, those factors assessed positively as high sustainability factors could serve as the basis. The positive characteristics of the Senegalese people and the society are strong advantages. A peaceful society such as Senegal, with almost no ethnic conflicts, is a fundamentally important strength in attracting investors and tourists, especially in an age when instability and risks are increasing. People’s sense of hospitality or teranga, often pointed out as the virtue of Senegal, is the strong human capital. A tradition of democracy and participation also illustrates its openness toward different values and ways of thinking, an important asset for various forms of international cooperation. A favorable ICT infrastructure and internet situation, as well as the
5-10 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I existing regional cooperation mechanism in West Africa, add to these positive factors in enhancing Dakar’s potential to strengthen its regional hub function, which could result in accelerated economic growth, creating more job opportunities. In all these efforts, consideration of the global environment would be important. While sustainability in the global environment in terms of CO2 emission level was assessed as high because of its relatively low level compared with the world average, that of Dakar, at about 5 tons per person per year at present, is almost equivalent to the upper middle income countries’ level of 5.1 tons per person per year. Various measures need to be taken to restrain the increase of CO2 emission as much as possible. Education is an important factor because the basic driving force in enhancing sustainability, which involves a wide range of issues, lies in people’s capability in planning, management and cooperation, especially for a country such as Senegal, which has only limited mineral resources. The Senegalese society and people, as the strong base for sustainability enhancement as mentioned above, could be further strengthened through an emphasis on upgrading the education system.
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CHAPTER 6 MASTER PLAN FOR 2035
6.1 Vision, Objectives and Targets
6.1.1 Vision
A vision for a city can be shared by the people only when it properly and adequately integrates the views of the people living and working there. A development vision for the Study Area was prepared as below based on this idea. A vision workshop was held as part of the regular weekly meeting between DUA and the JICA Study Team on January 28, 2015. The participants from DUA expressed their ideas for the vision and direction of the Study Area, facilitated by the JICA Study Team. The key words expressed there were analyzed and organized. The ideas expressed in the stakeholder meetings by civil society representatives and local administrative officers, as well as the policy directions indicated by important government documents, were reviewed and reflected upon in this process. The vision was prepared through this participatory process.
A “City of Hospitality”
A City of Hospitality is characterized by: comfortable living environment, easy communication, and innovative creation.
It will be inclusive, sustainable, competitive and supportive.
A vision of a city should provide an image of the city in the future in a simple expression. It is a kind of catchphrase for a city, which is comprehensive enough to capture a range of concepts like an umbrella. Various ideas were expressed in the workshop, social survey and stakeholder meetings to indicate problems and visions, mostly based on the daily experiences of the participants and respondents. Therefore, they tended to be specific and realistic. The phrase “city of hospitality” was one of a few ideas expressed in the workshop with DUA officers, which is general, gives a sense of direction and would be easily understood and shared by people. This phrase, therefore, was picked as the vision for the Study Area. It was set rather from a bird’s-eye view than a bottom-up perspective. Senegal is well known for its hospitality, or teranga in Wolf, probably the strongest in West Africa. The vision “City of Hospitality” capitalizes on this strength of Senegal. “Hospitality” indicates generosity, openness and receptiveness toward different values, both internally and externally. Dakar will be a city where people live comfortably without worries about basic needs, disasters, finance or security, in a relaxing environment with abundant green space and parks. It will provide opportunities for cultural and sports activities. It will be a city with easy communication. People will travel easily within the city and to other regions. Foreigners will enter into Senegal smoothly through Dakar and continue their onward journeys effortlessly. Commodities will be transported efficiently within the city and beyond the city boundary.
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Communication with other regions and countries will be easy, utilizing advanced telecommunication technologies. It will be a city of innovative creation. People will enjoy locally produced commodities of good quality, both manufactured products and agri-products. Both Senegalese people and foreigners will enjoy the tourism opportunities unique to the region as well as original artisanal and artistic works. People of all classes, ethnic groups and statuses will enjoy these benefits (inclusive). Generations to come after 2035 will continue to enjoy these benefits (sustainable). With such strengths, Dakar and the adjacent area will be in the top position in West Africa (competitive). It will support and lead the development of the entire people of Senegal and other West African countries (supportive). The social survey conducted in the Study clarified that the respondents expect Dakar to be a clean city with development, peace and greenery. These views are integrated into the three characteristics of the vision, which are comfortable, easy communication and innovative creation under the umbrella of City of Hospitality.
Source: Household survey in the Environmental Baseline Survey, JICA Study Team Figure 6.1.1 Desirable Future Image of Dakar Region Clarified by Social Survey
6.1.2 Objectives and Targets
Objectives for achieving city of hospitality vision The vision of a “City of Hospitality” will be achieved by fulfilling a number of conditions. Those conditions could be called “envisioned objectives” and “enabling objectives”. The envisioned objectives are those perceived by the stakeholder meeting participants, DUA counterparts and the social survey respondents in the process of vision formulation. They are the objectives for creating a comfortable environment, promoting easy communication and accelerating innovative creation. The “enabling objectives” are those were not necessarily captured in the vision preparation process, but would be important in achieving the City of Hospitality vision. They are the objectives concerning institutional issues, macroscopic issues and the issue of protecting socially vulnerable people. (a) Envisioned objectives i) Comfortable environment objective ii) Easy communication objective iii) Innovative creation objective (b) Enabling objectives iv) Urban development management objective v) Environmental management objective vi) Inclusiveness enhancement objective vii) Broad view application objective They are conceptualized in the figure below.
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Envisioned Objectives i) Comfortable Environment Creation Objective
Basic needs fulfilled Disaster & pollution free Secure family economy Good security Relaxing environment
City of Hospitality
ii) Easy Communication iii) Innovative Creation Objective Objective
Good mobility within the Study Locally processed goods of high Area and with other regions quality Efficient transportation of goods High-quality agro-products Good ICT infrastructure Attractive tourism products
Enabling Objectives iv) Urban Development Management Objective
v) Environmental Management Objective
vi) Inclusiveness Enhancement Objective
vii) Broad View Application Objective
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.1.2 Envisioned and Enabling Objectives to Achieve “City of Hospitality”
Integration of SWOT analysis result Figure 6.1.3 below indicates in what ways the strengths, opportunities, weaknesses and threats clarified by the SWOT analysis presented in Section 4.2.2 are related to the achievement of the City of Hospitality Vision.
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Pursuance of seven objectives, taking advantage of strengths and opportunities
Existing City of Condition Hospitality
Barriers: Weaknesses/threats
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.1.3 Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats and Vision Realization Process
There are a number of barriers to be overcome to realize the City of Hospitality Vision, which are expressed as the problems in each sector and the weaknesses and threats identified in the SWOT analysis. The problems, weaknesses and threats should be resolved by aligning them systematically under the seven objectives shown in Figure 6.1.2. For example, institutional instability, listed as the first weakness, should be overcome as an issue under iv) Urban Development Management Objective. Vandalism and insecurity, the second weakness listed, is another example, which should be addressed under i) Comfortable Environment Creation Objective. Increased natural hazards caused by climate change, the threat listed second, should be properly dealt with under i) Comfortable Environment Creation Objective. In contrast with this problem-solving approach, the strengths and opportunities can be fully taken advantage of in achieving the City of Hospitality Vision. The positive elements of people and society expressed as “population which is young, welcoming, logically thinking, believes in cultural values, interested in the arts and with strong family ties” and “society which is stable, traditionally democratic and with political stability”, which are the first and second strengths listed, would be the basis for achieving the City of Hospitality Vision. A factor traditionally regarded as a threat, “surrounded by the sea on three sides and scarce land for development”, the first threat listed, can turn into an opportunity to create a compact city if this threat is perceived positively. This geographical condition is an opportunity in other senses because it offers chances for tourism development (Objective ii)) and for tapping the sea water as a new source of drinking water, applying modern desalinization technology (Objective i)). All the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats should, thus, be aligned systematically in the City of Hospitality realization process and be developed into specific measures. Specific targets for each of these seven objectives are established by referring to and realigning the indices clarified in the sustainability diagnosis presented in Chapter 5, in such a way as to correspond to these seven objectives. These targets are established from the perspective of enhancing the quality of life for the people and improving the business environment, as well as from the perspective of minimizing the load on the environment. The objectives and targets thus established are shown in Table 6.1.1 below.
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Table 6.1.1 Targets for Envisioned and Enabling Objectives to Realize “City of Hospitality” Sustainability Diagnosis Item Component Targets in 2035 Rationale for Selecting the Indicator Rationale for Target Level Number in Table 5.2.1 I. Comfortable Environment Creation Objective (Envisioned Objective) 1. Urban infrastructure services Water resources (dependent on a single system at present) will be diversified: Guiers and borehole Sustainability is low if water supply is dependent The proportions shown will be achieved by Water resources* system (external) at 84% and seawater desalination system (internal) at 16%. on a single water resources system, as seen in the development of two desalination plants. 4.4.2 riot in September 2013. Water supply service coverage ranging from 54.6% to 99.8% at present will reach 100% in the whole Access to water is a fundamental condition for It will be technically possible to attain 100% Study Area. better quality of life. service coverage. Water supply* Average water consumption per capita will be restrained to 63 to 75 liters per capita per day (lcd), Restraining water demands would raise The targets levels are low enough for sustainability 4.4.3 which could rise to 118 to 195 lcd without any demand management measures as a result of income sustainability of an area such as the Study Area, enhancement, but still adequate for leading normal rise. where water resource is scarce. lives. Sanitation conditions of the people living in urban areas will be improved by expanding the sewerage Good sanitation is an important condition for The targets are set at technically and financially Sewerage and network from 25 % to 63 % in the Study Area. healthy life. These indicators show sanitation attainable levels. 4.4.4 sanitation* Sanitation conditions of the people living in rural areas will be improved by increased access to condition affected by wastewater. sanitary toilets from 54% to 100%. Sanitation conditions of people will be improved by increasing the solid waste collection rate from Good sanitation is an important condition for The target service coverage ratio will be desirable 67% to 88% in the Study Area. healthy life. These indicators show sanitation and technically attainable. Solid waste Reduction in solid waste generation and disposal will be achieved by the three Rs and applying new condition affected by solid waste. Recycling rate of 4% is determined based on the 4.4.5 management* technologies such as incineration, waste-to-energy, compost and recycling (recycling rate to rise from The targets for three Rs show possible range of proportion of recyclable wastes. 0% to 4%). garbage generation reduction. Electricity will become available for people and businesses at more affordable prices, with the The high electricity price is the most serious issue The target price level will be desirable and electricity generation cost at 170 to 190 FCFA per kWh at present dependent on diesel generation, for the people as clarified by the social survey. attainable by realizing the best energy mix. Electricity and declining to an average of about 55 FCFA/kWh through realizing the best mix of energy sources. Dependence on renewable energy can be The target level set for renewable energy by the 4.4.6 renewable energy* Power generation by renewable energies will account for 15%. measured by its proportion of the total power government will be followed. generation. Major flood damage will be prevented by adoption of non-structural measures and structural measures. Floods and coastal hazards are the two major Non-structural measures, including land use plan No coastal hazard damage will occur as a result of restricting habitation at places along the coast with natural disaster risks in the Study Area. with consideration of hazard area, make the Study an altitude lower than 2.6 m. Area more resilient to flood. Structural measures for the storm event with 2. Natural disaster* 10-year return period for urban drainage system is 1.2 targeted, considering the existing plan in Dakar. The best solution for coping with coastal hazard is to restrict habitation in certain areas along the coast. Senegal will be the safest country in Sub-Saharan Africa. Senegal will upgrade its position from fifth The homicide statistics were the only available The achievement of first place in Sub-Saharan among 33 Sub-Saharan countries in terms of the number of homicides per 100,000 population (8.7) to security-related information with which an Africa would be within an attainable range and 3. Security first. international comparison was possible. appealing to the people. 1.4 problems The security issue, which is at present the second most serious problem people report after employment People’s recognition is an important indicator. A situation in which the people have no worry problems, will not be cited as a major problem by the people in the Study Area. about security would be desirable. People will enjoy a more comfortable urban environment, with the urban park area of 0.15 m2 per Urban park area per capita is a good indicator to The minimum park area designated by Japan’s person at present increasing to 1.0 m2 per person, equivalent to a total park area of 608 hectares in the measure the availability of open spaces for city Urban Park Law is 10 m2 per person for an entire Study Area. residents. city and 5.0 m2 per person for urban areas. Each 4. Urban park and country has its own standard. The target is within 3.2 green space* an attainable range in the land use plan for 2035. A target higher than this could result in high operation and maintenance cost. II. Easy Communication Promotion Objective (Envisioned Objective) Smooth traffic flows will be ensured by increasing the road density of 1.0 km per km2 at present to 2.0 The road density is a good indicator to measure An increase in the road density is set in proportion km per km2 and the proportion of paved roads rising from 36% to 70%. the level of road development. to the increase in pavement ratio. The number of fatalities caused by traffic accidents will decrease from 1.4 persons per 100,000 The level of safety on roads can be measured by A decrease in the fatalities by accidents is targeted population to 1.0. the number of fatalities. at an attainable level. 5. Transport* 4.4.1 The traffic congestion problem in downtown Dakar will be resolved by decreasing on-street parking Reduction of on-street parking and illegal parking The targets in decreasing on-site parking and from 90% to 40% and irregular parking from 50% to 10%. is important to resolve traffic jams. illegal parking are challenging, but should be pursued to adequately cope with the worsening traffic congestion problem of downtown Dakar.
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The international logistic function of Dakar, which is rated fifth among the 12 ECOWAS countries and LPI is applied because the logistics industry is a The targets are challenging, but necessary to be 108th among 171 countries in the world measured by the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index highly international industry exposed to severe attained for Senegal to become the hub of West 6. Logistics* 6.4 (LPI) will be strengthened, so that the ranking will be upgraded to first among ECOWAS countries. competition with other countries. Africa. Dakar will function as the western gateway for West Africa as a result. ICT infrastructure coverage in terms of the number of fixed (wired) broadband subscriptions, which is Availability of ICT infrastructure and the level of The targets are challenging, but necessary to be favorable in Africa (second among ECOWAS countries) but less strong in the world (152nd), will be prevalence of internet are the indicators to show attained for Senegal to promote the advantages of 7. ICT upgraded to be first among ECOWAS countries. efficiency in communication, an important factor doing business in Senegal. 6.1 As a result, individual internet use, which is favorable in Africa (third among ECOWAS countries) but in attracting investors. less strong in the world (143rd), will be upgraded to be first among the ECOWAS countries. III. Innovative Creation Promotion Objective (Envisioned Objective) Production in terms of gross regional domestic product (GRDP) will increase from 3,295 billion FCFA GRDP growth rates are applied because they The targets are set in conformity with the PSE’s in 1999 factor price in 2013 to 17,136 billion FCFA in 2035, equivalent to a growth of 7.8% per year represent the level of expansion of production, targets and at such levels as to raise the status of on average. therefore increased opportunities for people to the Study Area from the lower middle income 8. Production* 1.3 Sector-wise, the annual average growth rates are 5.7% per year for the primary sector, 8.9% per year enjoy goods and services of higher quality. category ($1,045-$4,125 per person) to the upper for the secondary sector and 7.4% per year for the tertiary sector. middle income category ($4,126-$12,736 per GRDP per capita of the Study Area will reach US$ 5,632 by 2035. person). The investment environment will be improved so that Senegal boasts the top position among the The indicator is selected because it is used in PSE While the targets are challenging to attain, this 9. Foreign direct ECOWAS countries (currently sixth) and is in the top 100 countries in the world (currently 169th among as a good indicator of Senegal’s competitiveness. level of upgrading would be needed to achieve the 3.1 investment 189 countries) in terms of the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking. production targets in 8. above. The number of accommodation guests to the regions of Dakar and Thiès will increase from 445,000 to The number of visitors is a good indicator to show The target level would be attainable in 10. Tourism* 1,580,000. the growth of the tourism industry. consideration of international trends and Senegal’s 3.4 tourism resources. A balanced composition of export destinations will be achieved by increasing the export to Europe The indicators show the extent of diversity in An increased share of the export to developed from 12% to 25%, to America from 0.1% to 5%, to Asia from 14% to 20% and decreasing the export to export markets. The more diverse the export countries, especially Europe, would enhance the 11. Export 1.3 Africa from 69% to 50%. market structure is, the more sustainable a country sustainability of Senegal’s economy. is. IV. Urban Development Management Objective (Enabling Objectives) The objectives and specifications of urban development plans such as SDAU, PDU and PUD are These qualitative targets show a desirable situation Achieving these targets will lead to creation of a 12. Urban planning clearly defined. of how the urban planning system works. sustainable city. 4.1 system* All the stakeholders undertake development activities according to these urban development plans and thus these urban plans are enforced. DUA has sufficient technical capability to support local authorities in preparing PDUs and PUDs. These targets are prerequisites to achieve the PDUs and PUDs prepared appropriately could 13. Technical Local authorities are able to prepare PDUs and PUDs with the guidance of DUA. Urban Planning System targets in 12. above. provide a spatial framework for creating a 4.2 capability* sustainable city. DUA has sufficient budget for undertaking activities to support local authorities. These targets are prerequisites to achieve the DUA needs to be financially supported to Local authorities secure minimum budget required for preparing a PDU and a PUD. Urban Planning System targets in 12. above. undertake its role. 14. Financial Local governments could minimize costs for 4.3 capability* preparing PDUs and PUDs by applying free-of-charge urban planning tools such as Google Earth (satellite imagery) and QGIS (GIS software). V. Environmental Management Objective (Enabling Objectives) The increase in CO2 emission, which is 5.03 CO2e per person per year at present in Dakar Region, will CO2 emission is applied as an indicator to measure The target income elasticity of CO2 emission is set be restrained to 6.8 CO2e in 2035, an increase of 1.35 times, by achieving an income elasticity of CO2e the impact of human activities on the global at 0.5, a level lower than the average income emission of 0.5. environment. elasticity of energy consumption in the world of 15. GHG emission 1.1 0.64. This target could be met by introducing low-energy consuming technologies and low-CO2 emitting technologies. A land use pattern with a good balance of urban areas, farm lands and natural areas including wet lands The proportion of green spaces is a good indicator The target will be attainable and desirable from the 16. Land use* will be achieved. Green space will account for 50% of the Study Area. to measure the balance of land uses. land use planning perspective. 1.1
17. Pollution and Pollution affects the sustainability of a city, The state of having no pollution is an important illegal activities There will be no industrial pollution or illegal activities damaging the environment under a especially from the environmental aspect. element of a sustainable city. The monitoring 1.1 damaging strengthened monitoring system. capability is the key. environment VI. Inclusiveness Enhancement Objective (Enabling Objectives) Poverty of population in terms of $1.25 PPP (purchasing power parity rate at 283 FCFA/$ applied) per The incidence of poverty shows the level of The poverty population will decline to 1.1% in the person per day, which is 22.3% in the Study Area at present, will be reduced to 0.0%. prevalence of poor people. The level of income event of GRDP per capita growing from $2,056 per 18. Poverty 2.1 Income disparity in the Study Area, measured by Gini coefficient calculated to be 0.399 at present, will disparity shows the level of concentration of person to US$5,632 as assumed in the be narrowed, with the Gini coefficient falling to 0.30. income to a limited part of the population. Socioeconomic Framework, assuming the same
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These targets indicate the inclusiveness of a city. growth rate for all the income strata. The target, therefore, will be almost attained. The Gini coefficient target is challenging, but could be attained if compared with some neighboring countries such as Mail (0.33), Niger (0.31) and Guinea (0.34). All the people in the Study Area have equal access to social services and infrastructure services The indicators show the level of problems with The target levels are challenging, but need to be regardless of where they live. social services and infrastructure services attained. (Social Services) perceived by the residents living in irregular The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think primary schools are too far away will settlements, who are poorer and live in an decrease from 33% to 0%. unfavorable living environment. The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think there are problems with primary education will decrease from 73% to 0%. The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think health care facilities are too far away will decrease from 35% to 0%. 19. Basic human The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think there are problems with health care 2.2 needs service will decrease from 71% to 0%. (Infrastructure Services)* The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think there are problems with water will decrease from 26% to 0%. The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think there are problems with sanitation will decrease from 73% to 0%. The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think there are problems with solid waste will decrease from 42% to 0%. The proportion of the irregular settlement residents who think there are problems with electricity will decrease from 58% to 0%. The service level of public transport will be improved, with the mode share of informal public transport Public transport is an important transportation Transforming all the informal public transport declining from 64% to 0%. means, especially for poorer people. operation to formal operation is necessary and 20. Public The irregular settlement residents who are not satisfied with public transportation will decrease from The proportion of informal public transport judged possible. 2.3 transportation* 93% to 20%. reflects the level of public transport service. An improvement in the level of satisfaction with An important criterion for judging the level of public transport at the target level will be service of public transport is people’s perception. attainable. The coverage of social insurance for adults older than 60 years of age, which is 35% at present, second Information on social safety net was available The target level is considered desirable. 21. Social safety net 2.5 in sub-Saharan countries after South Africa, will reach 100%. only for the indicator used. VII. Broad View Application Objective (Enabling Objectives) Upper level plans at the national and inter-regional levels such as SDAU, PGAT and a national The targets are established because these upper The established target follows the official urban 22. National and socioeconomic plan such as PSE will be prepared as a guidance for the development of Dakar and the level plans have not been prepared as they should planning system in Senegal. 6.2 inter-regional plans neighboring area. have been. 23. International The economy of Senegal will become more competitive through further economic integration of West They are the existing regional cooperation Higher competitiveness through strengthened cooperation African countries through ECOWAS and UEMOA. mechanisms. regional integration leads to higher living standard 6.3 mechanism for Senegalese people. Note: The components with asterisks (*) are those on which detailed analyses were made within the Study and the outputs presented in the relevant chapters of this report. Source: JICA Study Team
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Application of sustainability analysis and vision, objectives, targets establishment The sustainability analysis and the subsequent work presented above cover a wide range of issues. They go beyond the conventional task of urban planning, which is to plan allocation and uses of the land, covering such areas as infrastructures, environment, social services and social welfare. In the present analysis, the issues are classified into those for which detailed analyses are made within the Study, in addition to the strategies and actions presented in the next section (those with * in Table 6.1.1), and others for which no further analyses were made beyond the strategies and policy packages. The proposals on the latter issues are recommended to be shared with the relevant offices in charge of the respective subject so that they can undertake further detailed analyses. The proposals presented in this chapter should be shared by all the relevant ministries and organizations within the Senegalese government. They should be used as a tool to monitor the progress of development in the Study Area and Senegal from the sustainability perspective. Specific ways to undertake monitoring and required institutional set-up need to be discussed and determined at the platform for sharing the proposals of the Study among relevant ministries and organizations, as presented in Chapter 15. It is expected that a high-status section of the Senegalese government becomes responsible for monitoring the situation through reviewing periodical reports submitted by each government office responsible for each area, assesses the sustainability situation and issues instructions back to each office. The CO2 emission condition, for example, should be periodically reported by the Ministry of Environment to this control tower section. This section, then, checks the progress of CO2 emission reduction measures such as the public transport project, energy saving campaign, reforestation project, etc. As another example, ANSD should submit a report on the incidence of poverty statistics; the relevant office then analyzes the poverty situation and checks the progress of economic development and livelihood improvement projects undertaken by the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Such a comprehensive approach as sustainability diagnosis and planning can be best utilized in this manner.
6.2 Sustainability Enhancement Strategy and Measures
(1) Comfortable Environment Creation Strategy and Actions Strategies (a) Apply both structural and non-structural measures to tackle the increasing need for urban infrastructures, thus enhancing the capacities of the structures and restraining demand. (b) Minimize the damage caused by natural disasters by integrating structural and non-structural measures effectively. (c) Prevent and minimize law and order problems through integrating a crime prevention perspective in the urban planning and design processes and enhancing community initiatives. (d) Increase the urban park area in the Study Area by securing sufficient spaces for urban parks from the planning stage for the newly urbanizing areas and converting non-park areas to urban parks through restructuring programs. Actions (a) Structural measures for urban infrastructures include expansion of the facilities for water supply, sewerage, solid waste management and power and renewable energy.
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(b) Non-structural measures for urban infrastructures to restrain demands include tariff system adjustment, campaigning to reduce water and electricity use and the three Rs for solid waste management (Reduce, Reuse and Recycle). (c) Structural measures for natural disaster prevention and mitigation include construction of flood mitigation facilities such as retention/detention ponds and drainage canals and coastal erosion prevention facilities. (d) Non-structural measures for natural disaster prevention and mitigation include land use control, which prohibits habitation in flood-prone areas, improvement of real estate market and land tenure, relocation of the population from flood-prone areas, early warning and civil protection activities. (e) Urban crime will be reduced by: Applying the CPTED concept to urban planning and design: land use planning, street layouts, building and site design, street and open space lighting, facility and landscape maintenance, activity and space scheduling, using surveillance camera devices for urban security; Promoting empowerment of communities and community-led initiatives in specific schemes focusing on crime prevention, as well as comprehensive schemes such as livelihood improvement programs that would generate job opportunities and strengthen community ties, integrating security management mechanisms into community dynamics; and Strengthening the formal criminal justice and policing systems, including prison reform, to place more emphasis on rehabilitation of prisoners. (f) Sufficient area for urban parks and green space will be secured by: Obligating large-scale development by private developers to allocate a certain portion of the land plot for a green area; Taking full advantage of the initiatives by the private sector to develop urban parks by various methods such as PFI and relaxation of building conditions accompanying urban park development; and Creating green networks along environmental axes integrating urban parks, rivers and tree-lined streets.
(2) Easy Communication Strategy and Actions Strategies (a) Integrate transportation planning into land use planning to create an urban structure that is economically and environmentally desirable. (b) Efficiently utilize the transport infrastructure capacities by effectively integrating non-structural measures and structural measures in order to ensure smooth mobility of goods and people for economic development and improvement of the quality of life of the people. (c) Promote public transportation by integrating public transport planning into land use planning and emphasizing more cost-efficient options. (d) Enhance the competitiveness of the logistics sector by overcoming weaknesses such as timeliness and infrastructure and further enhancing relative strengths such as customs and international shipment. (e) Support private initiatives for developing fixed and mobile broadband network infrastructure, as well as promoting the application of ICT to various public services.
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Actions (a) Develop peripheral roads to complement the existing arterial trunk roads. (b) Expand the capacities of roads, intersections and bridges at bottlenecks and provide sufficient parking spaces in urban areas. (c) Apply non-structural measures to restrain transport demand such as road pricing, promotion of park and ride or park and bus ride, share-ride promotion, promotion of non-motorized transport modes, improved traffic management, improvement of intermodal transfer and illegal parking restrictions. (d) Improve the public transport system such as the Rapid Bus Transit and rail transport service and promote its usage through wide dissemination of information in an easily comprehensible form, encouraging tourists to use public transport, nurturing a sense of ownership of communities and local businesses, offering discounts for long-haul travelers, cooperation with local companies and commercial establishments, improvement of stations and stops, enhancement of attractiveness of travel by public transport itself and physical and fare integration of different public transportation modes. (e) Improve the logistics business environment by upgrading Dakar Port, developing infrastructures to support AIBD, removing non-structural barriers to land transport, upgrading rail infrastructure, developing logistics infrastructures such as truck terminals and enhancing linkages among all these logistics-related infrastructure facilities. (f) Expand ICT investments by the private sector by creating a competitive environment through relaxing various restrictions and providing privileges such as tax incentives. (g) Expand the use of ICT infrastructure by government initiatives such as capacity development in ICT, institutional measures to enhance security and offer reliable ID systems, promotion of cloud service, e-government, application of ICT to health services, education and disaster prevention and promotion of tele-work.
(3) Innovative Creation Promotion Strategy and Actions Strategies (a) Integrate the production sectors into the urban planning process in the Study Area as an important component of job creation and income generation. (b) Actively introduce foreign direct investment to the Study Area for all the economic sectors, so that their advanced technology and funding capacity support the Study Area in boosting its economy. The improvement of the investment environment is a crucial factor, as well as human resource development for a country such as Senegal with limited mineral resources. (c) Promote primary sector production such as urban agriculture and fishery, taking advantage of the natural local resources. (d) Promote tourism capitalizing on the strengths of Senegal, such as people’s hospitality, nature, history, culture and art, as well as cooperating with other ECOWAS countries to create a West African brand, targeting not only conventional tourist activities but also new types of tourism activities such as MICE, eco-tourism, agro-tourism and community tourism. (e) Promote export of Senegalese products strategically based on the preferences and conditions of potential markets and the strengths of Senegal and the Study Area.
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Actions (a) Take advantage of the availability of lands suitable for vegetable and fruit farming in the Study Area and promote farming activities, while paying due attention to maintaining a proper balance between land conservation and farming promotion. (b) Promote fishing activities in a sustainable manner, enhancing food security by artisanal fishing and promoting export by commercial fishing. (c) Support and expand the logistics industry as the core of economic development in Senegal, capitalizing on its geographical position coupled with intensive development of logistic infrastructures and human capacity. (d) Promote processing industries, capitalizing on an increase in logistics flow, better investment environment and human resource development. (e) Improve the investment environment through creation of special economic zones and industrial parks equipped with a full set of infrastructures, preparation of systematic rules and regulations for foreign direct investments and human resource development from workers’ level to engineering and managerial levels. (f) Strengthen the function of Dakar as the “Tourism Gateway for Senegal and West Africa”, promote creation of attractive tourism products, promote integrated visitor management and support provision of accommodation facilities from high-end to economical level. (g) Promote and expand export of agriculture and fishery products and their processed products with a good understanding of the preferences and constraints in each of the potential markets in Europe, America and Asia and the production potential on the Senegalese side at an initial stage. An increase in export of footloose processed goods capitalizing on a better investment environment, increased logistic flow and a competitive work force could follow at a later stage, a stage similar to those experienced by Asian countries.
(4) Urban Development Management Strategy and Actions Strategies (Urban planning system) (a) Enhance the recognition of people and the private sector toward the master plan. (b) Enhance the supporting tools for the master plan. (c) Enhance recognition of the master plan in central government organizations and local governments. (d) Strengthen the monitoring and surveillance function and expand the financial base to implement the proposed projects for realizing the master plan. (e) Formulate a national planning and urban management strategy integrating risks and defining the concept, principles and approaches of a sustainable city for Senegal. (Capacity development) (a) Clarify the ultimate roles and functions of relevant organizations related to urban planning, such as DUA and local governments, and to the transition process. (b) Strengthen the institutional and organizational capacities of the relevant organizations. (c) Strengthen the individual capacities of the officers of the relevant organizations to support the expected roles and functions of each organization. (Financial capability)
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(a) Maximize the budget by effectively demonstrating the importance of urban plans to the government and minimizing expenditure. Actions (Urban planning system) (a) Enhance people’s recognition of the master plan through promotion of participatory development involving people in the planning process and active information dissemination, preparation of master plans in a technically appropriate manner and swift and smooth approval of the master plans. (b) Strengthen the function of DSCOS for enhancing the surveillance function to realize the master plan. (c) Strengthen the supporting tools of the master plan through such measures as improved land administration in terms of a clear hierarchy of urban plans of different levels, tax incentive measures to promote housing development in desirable locations, formalized land tenure system and more functional building control. (d) Enhance recognition of the master plan by central government organizations and local governments through promoting their positive involvement in the planning process, enhancing mutual cooperation and swift authentication of the master plan and active dissemination of information regarding the plan and its authentication. (Capacity development) (a) Strengthen the organizational and institutional capacity of the urban planning sector of Senegal by appropriately defining the roles and functions of DUA in the short term, in the medium term and in the long term, adopting various measures to strengthen the organizational capacity of DUA and local governments, creating an appropriate organizational structure of DUA ensuring fulfillment of the expected tasks and introducing a new system to upgrade the quality of urban planners in Senegal, such as an urban planner certificate system. (b) Promote capacity development at the individual level, by first strengthening the individual capacity of the DUA officers through an internal training system in the short term, followed by capacity development of local government officers in the medium term, capitalizing on the achievement in the short run and expansion of training to the whole of Senegal by establishing an urban planning training center in the long run. (Financial capability) (a) Promote a system to allocate part of the budget for infrastructure development projects by line ministries and organizations for urban planning purposes, by creating a Common Planning Fund, for example, on the basis that effective urban plans would enhance the effects of infrastructure projects. (b) Introduce a new taxation system to financially support urban planning works.
(5) Environmental Management Strategy and Actions Strategies
(a) Plan and create a city that would minimize CO2 emission as a collaborative effort of communities, businesses and local authorities and improve people’s lifestyles and production.
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(b) Create a land use pattern that ensures a good balance of urban, agricultural and natural spaces and guarantees the conservation of natural resources. (c) Minimize pollution by industries and illegal activities damaging the environment through strengthening collaboration between central government, local authorities, industries and local communities. Actions
(a) Create a city emitting less CO2 by: Formulating a multipolar structure in which each urban area is self-contained, providing both living and working places, surrounded by a green area and mutually linked by a
good transportation network, thus reducing long travel and CO2 emission; Preserving farm lands, dams and reservoirs to store rainwater for agricultural and domestic uses in urbanizing areas; Developing an efficient public transportation system and promoting its usage, as well as accelerating non-motorized transport modes such as bicycle, walking and horse-cart,
which emit less CO2; Promoting use of renewable energies such as solar, wind and small/mini-hydro power, spearheaded by public facilities and spreading to wider society; Promoting efficient use of limited resources through various measures such as cyclical use of water, reducing, reusing and recycling garbage (three Rs) and converting wastewater sludge into fuel; Promoting ecological houses and buildings by modern technology (e.g., roof and wall greening) and traditional technology (e.g., patio); and Improving the behavior of people and businesses to save use of water and energy through awareness and supporting industries to introduce more energy-efficient equipment. (b) Create a land use pattern that ensures a good balance of urban, agricultural and natural spaces and guarantees the conservation of natural resources by: Taking into consideration the large-scale ecological network of the various green and blue corridors in planning and ensuring that the future land use patterns do not change but reinforce the ecological integrity of the region; Adopting regulatory protection measures in the PDU for the most threatened ecosystems and especially the wetland areas, which have an important role in the water cycle; Proposing fiscal and financial tools (incentives or exemptions for land owners) that can help to protect natural areas threatened by urbanization pressures; and Promoting the establishment of a legal framework to prevent and/or regulate new constructions on the coastal strip, to be continued in the efforts of the future Coastal Act. (c) Pollution and illegal activities will be minimized by strengthening the pollution control system by: Capacity development of central government and local authorities in terms of technical capability in monitoring and analyzing the pollution situation, enforcing the laws and regulations and communicating with local communities; Strengthening and clarification of regulatory measures as well as non-regulatory measures; Establishing an information sharing mechanism among industries; Providing technical support for efforts to introduce cleaner production technologies and financial assistance for pollution-preventing initiatives by industries;
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Promoting information dissemination on the industries violating pollution-related laws and regulations; Supporting enhancement of technical capability of industries; Promoting relocation of industries to industrial parks; and Strengthening regulatory measures to prohibit outdated vehicles emitting bad quality exhaust.
(6) Inclusiveness Enhancement Strategy and Actions Strategies (a) Promote creation of job opportunities and income generation for poorer segments of the population in all spheres of economic activity, effectively linking them with larger-scale economic activities. (b) Promote redistribution of income and wealth by improving the tax and social insurance systems. (c) Improve access and quality of services for basic education and health services in irregular settlements as part of a restructuring program. (d) Improve the access to and quality of the public transportation service for irregular settlement residents. (e) Expand the social safety net systems for socially vulnerable people and provide support measures to upgrade their status and conditions. Actions (a) Support small vegetable- and fruit-growing farmers in the Niayes and other areas in overcoming problems such as salinization, as well as enhancing productivity and developing market channels. (b) Support artisanal fishermen in enhancing productivity and developing market channels. (c) Support development of SMEs in industry and service sectors through formulation of clusters of craft industries, formalization of SMEs, upgrading of technology and equipment and provision of a better production environment with a set of infrastructures and utility services. (d) Introduce a progressive income tax scheme and inheritance tax system. (e) Improve the access to and convenience of public transport service through implementing the BRT projects in three phases and upgrading or developing rail transport from Dakar to Thiès and possibly to AIBD, line haul bus transport and feeder bus service, to improve intermodal connections. (f) Ensuring a better coordination of the interventions of institutions for the promotion of employment and avoiding stakeholder action duplication. (g) Improve the level of bus service in terms of frequency and circulation, the standard of the driving and the distance to bus stops. (h) Expand the existing social insurance system for the elderly population above 60 years old and adopt other social welfare measures for socially vulnerable people such as the disabled, single parent families, ethnic minorities, sick people, refugees, etc. (i) Tackling young people and teenagers’ vulnerability to many risky behaviors (promiscuity, smoking, prostitution, early pregnancies, HIV/AIDS).
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(j) Promoting gender mainstreaming into urban development to overcome persistent obstacles enhancing gender disparity in social, economic and political fields (family status inequality, unequal access to social services, weak economic power of women, persistence of early marriages, unequal access to land ownership and housing, insufficient accompanying measures that address respect for certain rights).
(7) Broad View Application Strategy and Actions Strategies (a) Prepare a new national development plan capitalizing on the achievements of PSE and subsequent national plans and integrating the latest international and national conditions. Actions (a) Upgrade the technical skill of ANAT, DUA and relevant ministries and organizations for the preparation of national plans and update the present 2035 Master Plan and subsequent master plans. (b) Strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries in order to enhance the competitiveness of West Africa as a whole.
6.3 Development Frameworks
6.3.1 Socioeconomic Framework
(1) Socioeconomic Framework in Senegal A socioeconomic framework for Senegal is established as shown in Table 6.3.1 below in order to provide basic conditions for preparing a socioeconomic framework for the Study Area.
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Table 6.3.1 Socioeconomic Framework for Senegal Item Unit 2013 2025 2035 Population 1,000 13,508 19,037 24,132 Working age population 1,000 7,227 11,422 15,685 Labor force Total 1,000 3,649 6,282 9,411 Primary 1,000 2,189 3,141 3,764 Secondary 1,000 547 1,256 2,352 Tertiary 1,000 913 1,885 3,295 GDP Total FCFA billion 4,731 10,530 20,715 (Factor price at 1999) Primary FCFA billion 675 1,222 1,926 Secondary FCFA billion 1,035 2,927 6,297 Tertiary FCFA billion 3,021 6,381 12,492 Average GDP Growth Total %/year 3.6 6.6 7.0 rate Primary %/year 2.7 4.9 4.7 Secondary %/year 2.5 8.6 8.0 Tertiary %/year 4.3 6.3 6.9 GDP per capita (Real) US$ 700 1,106 1,717 GDP per capita average growth rate % - 3.9 4.5 Literacy rate % 52.1 75.0 95.0 School enrollment, primary % 94.4 100.0 100.0 School enrollment, secondary % 45.0 60.0 85.0 Number of doctors Per 1,000 persons 0.05 1.0 2.0 Under-five mortality rate Per 1,000 persons 72 50 20 Births assisted by a skilled provider % 65.0 80.0 95.0 HIV prevalence rate % 0.5 0.1 0.01 Source: JICA Study Team estimated based on Direction De La Prévision et des Etudes Economiques (DPEE)’s projection, National Educational Statistics and United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) Note: GDP Growth Rate in 2013 shows average growth rate from 2002-2013. GDP Growth Rate in 2025 shows average growth rate from 2013-2025. GDP Growth Rate in 2035 shows average growth rate from 2025-2035.
(2) Socioeconomic Framework in the Study Area A socioeconomic framework for the Study Area was established as shown in Table 6.3.2 below.
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Table 6.3.2 Socioeconomic Framework for the Study Area Item Unit 2013 2025 2035 Population 1,000 3,206 4,705 6,084 Working age population 1,000 1,971 3,058 4,259 Labor force Total 1,000 1,078 1,835 2,768 Primary 1,000 21 14 11 Secondary 1,000 302 514 775 Tertiary 1,000 755 1,307 1,982 GRDP Total FCFA billion 3,295 7,937 17,136 (Factor price at 1999) Primary FCFA billion 10 14 17 Secondary FCFA billion 838 2,357 5,449 Tertiary FCFA billion 2,447 5,566 11,670 Average GRDP Growth Total % - 7.6 8.0 rate Primary % - 5.8 5.6 Secondary % - 9.0 8.7 Tertiary % - 7.1 7.7 GRDP per capita (Real) US$ 2,056 3,373 5,632 GRDP per capita average growth rate % 4.2 5.3 School enrollment, primary % 117.1 108.0 100.0 School enrollment, secondary % 80.1 90.0 96.0 Under-five mortality rate Per 1,000 persons 59 30 10 Births assisted by a skilled provider % 95.0 100.0 100.0 Source: JICA Study Team estimated based on DPEE’s projection, National Educational Statistics, UNICEF Note: Education and health indicators are used in Dakar Region. GRDP Growth Rate in 2013 shows average growth rate from 2002-2013. GRDP Growth Rate in 2025 shows average growth rate from 2013-2025. GRDP Growth Rate in 2035 shows average growth rate from 2025-2035. The following are the major assumptions applied:
The natural population growth rates are assumed to be 2.3% per year between 2013 and 2025 and 1.8% per year between 2025 and 2035, 0.5% lower than the natural population growth rates of Senegal. This is the medium growth scenario. The social population growth caused by migration is assumed to start at 31,000 persons per year in 2013, growing at the population growth rate of Senegal until 2025, and assumed to remain constant at 42,000 persons per year until 2035. This is the medium growth scenario. The economic growth rates are established following the projection made by DPEE and PSE and assumed to be 1% higher than Senegal’s economic growth rates, considering the leading role of the Study Area in Senegal’s economic growth. This is the medium growth scenario. The education and health indicators in Dakar are better than those of Senegal. In 2035, the education and health services in Senegal are assumed to have reached the level of currently developed countries.
(3) Distribution of GRDP by Block The following are the major projections of GRDP that have been applied. Blocks in the Study Area are shown in Table 6.3.3.
For demand forecast of urban infrastructure, the GRDPs in 2013, 2025 and 2035 are distributed by block in accordance with the land use plan for 2035 shown in Chapter 6.3.2. The land area of each block is divided by land use into primary, secondary, tertiary and others (with no economic activities). The GRDP of each block is calculated based on the proportion of estimated economic activity considering development progress such as population prediction and future development plans.
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In 2013, Dakar had the highest GRDP in the Study Area. The suburban area was the most populated area, containing some industry and service sectors with their accompanying population. The development of Diamniadio is assumed to have commenced. The GRDP of the primary sector in the Study Area is mostly included in the rural area up to the target year. In 2025, Dakar and the suburban area will develop due to the growth of the secondary and tertiary sectors. In particular, the Rufisque area will achieve the fastest development. The development of Diamniadio will proceed at full tilt. The development of Daga Kholpa will have begun. In 2035, the GRDP of Rufisque will exceed that of the suburban area because of the high population growth and relevant industries. Diamniadio will become one of the major economic poles of the Study Area. The development of Daga Kholpa will begin in earnest.
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Table 6.3.3 GRDP by block in 2013, 2025 and 2035 Unit: FCFA billion at 1999 prices 2013 2025 2035 Share in the Share in the Share in the Block Sector FCFA FCFA FCFA Study Area Study Area Study Area billion billion billion (%) (%) (%) Primary 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 Secondary 287.0 34.2 657.3 27.9 1,206.2 22.1 Dakar Tertiary 1,459.4 59.6 2,904.3 52.2 5,165.6 44.3 Total 1,746.4 53.0 3,561.6 44.9 6,371.8 37.2 Primary 0.1 1.0 0.2 1.4 0.2 1.2 Secondary 329.2 39.3 749.6 31.8 1,231.8 22.6 Suburban Tertiary 528.4 21.6 1,045.3 18.8 1,664.9 14.3 Total 857.7 26.0 1,795.0 22.6 2,896.8 16.9 Primary 0.2 2.0 0.2 1.4 0.3 1.8 Secondary 144.7 17.3 577.4 24.5 1,571.9 28.8 Rufisque Tertiary 220.4 9.0 694.3 12.5 1,832.0 15.7 Total 365.3 11.1 1,271.9 16.0 3,404.2 19.9 Primary 0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 Secondary 39.1 4.7 214.6 9.1 800.9 14.7 Diamniadio Tertiary 70.3 2.9 370.8 6.7 1,212.3 10.4 Total 109.5 3.3 585.4 7.4 2,013.3 11.7 Primary 0 0.0 0 0.0 0.1 0.6 Secondary 9.1 1.1 66.7 2.8 294.9 5.4 Daga Kholpa Tertiary 32.9 1.3 208.9 3.8 895.1 7.7 Total 42.1 1.3 275.7 3.5 1,190.0 6.9 Primary 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 Secondary 10.2 1.2 37.5 1.6 142.6 2.6 Sébikhotane Tertiary 13.4 0.5 42.9 0.8 158.0 1.4 Total 23.6 0.7 80.4 1.0 300.6 1.8 Primary 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 Secondary 1.4 0.2 4 0.2 11.3 0.2 Sindia Tertiary 1.8 0.1 4.5 0.1 12.6 0.1 Total 3.2 0.1 8.5 0.1 23.9 0.1 Primary 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 Secondary 1.8 0.2 5.3 0.2 15.2 0.3 Pout Tertiary 2.4 0.1 6.1 0.1 16.9 0.1 Total 4.2 0.1 11.4 0.1 32.1 0.2 Primary 0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0 Secondary 12.8 1.5 37.5 1.6 107.0 2.0 Coast Tertiary 42.2 1.7 107.2 1.9 296.4 2.5 Total 55 1.7 144.7 1.8 403.5 2.4 Primary 9.6 96.0 13.5 96.4 16.4 96.5 Secondary 2.6 0.3 7.1 0.3 67.1 1.2 Rural Tertiary 75.8 3.1 181.7 3.3 416.3 3.6 Total 88 2.7 202.3 2.5 499.8 2.9 Primary 10 100 14 100 17 100 Secondary 838 100 2,357 100 5,449 100 Total Tertiary 2,447 100 5,566 100 11,670 100 Total 3,295 100 7,937 100 17,136 100 Source: JICA Study Team
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6.3.2 Spatial Development Framework
The future urban area must accommodate the capacity to meet the socioeconomic framework. On the other hand, the natural environment must also be preserved to create a living habitat. The spatial development framework is examined to identify a probable urbanization pattern with a good balance for the socio-economy, natural environment and urban activities.
(1) Preservation of Agricultural Land Irrigated farmlands have been well preserved despite the very high urbanization pressures. On the other hand, rain-fed agricultural fields have been constantly threatened by pressure for land use conversion. These rain-fed areas are typically observed in eastern Rufisque, Mbour and Thiès. The 2025 Master Plan designated agricultural areas. These designated areas need to be inherited by the 2035 Master Plan. As the planning area expanded from the time of the 2025 Master Plan, areas for protection of agriculture also need to be expanded. A land suitability analysis for agriculture was conducted to identify the land’s adaptability for selected crops in the Study Area. The target crops are cash crops such as vegetables and fruits. These crops are more profitable and suitable than cereals for urban agriculture. The evaluation criteria are designed to cover the characteristics of the base materials of lands, topography and soil type. Table 6.3.4 and Table 6.3.5 show the established evaluation criteria. The ISRIC provides the GIS data for soil parameters in Senegal and other African countries. These GIS data are used to analyze the soil conditions in the Study Area.
Table 6.3.4 Evaluation Criteria by Slope and Base Material of Soil Code Base Material Category Vegetable Fruit Slope (%) Slope (%) =0 <3 <7 <15 <30 >30 =0 <3 <7 <15 <30 >30 Basemen IB2 Basalt 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 t rock Sandstone, Basemen SC2 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 Greywacke, Arkose t rock Marl and other SO2 Silt 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 mixtures UC Colluvial Silt 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 1 1 1 1 1 1 UE Eolian Sand 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 UF Fluvial Clay 1 1 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 UM Marine Sand 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 Source: JICA Study Team
Table 6.3.5 Evaluation Criteria by Soil Type Code Soil Association Vegetable Fruit Code Soil Association Vegetable Fruit ACf Ferric ACRISOLS -1 -1 GLu Umbric GLEYSOLS 1 1 ARh Haplic ARENOSOLS -1 -1 LPd Dystric LEPTOSOLS -1 -1 CMx Chromic 1 1 SCg Gleyic -1 -1 CAMBISOLS SOLONCHAKS GLe Eutric GLEYSOLS 1 1 VRe Eutric VERTSOLS 1 -1 GLk Calcic GLEYSOLS 0 0 Source: JICA Study Team The slope gradient is estimated in each 30 m grid in the Study Area using a topographic map of 1/20,000 scale prepared in the Study. Using the spatial analysis tools in GIS, the land suitability is analyzed as shown in Figure 6.3.1. The analysis reveals that suitable land for vegetables and fruit is largely located in the northeast of the Study Area. The Niayes area is widely known as the most suitable agriculturally and extends from Dakar to Saint-Louis in the northeast direction. The land
6-21 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I suitability analysis thus justifies the suitability of the Niayes area for agriculture.
Vegetable Fruit Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.1 Land Suitability Analysis for Vegetables and Fruit
Figure 6.3.2 is a conceptual drawing that shows areas to be protected from urbanization to maintain the agricultural usage. The unpaved ground surfaces of agricultural lands contribute to recharging the groundwater. In general, agricultural lands should be preserved as much as possible to keep green space in the Study Area. For instance, the 2025 Master Plan designates the agricultural areas that should be inherited by the 2035 Master Plan. An existing land use map identifies existing cultivated and savanna areas. Those cultivated and savanna areas with high suitability for agriculture usage need to be protected from encroachment. Figure 6.3.2 depicts the candidate areas for agriculture use.
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.2 Location of Agricultural Areas to be Protected
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(2) Protection from Hazard Areas Dakar Region experienced severe flooding in recent years. The present study conducted a flood risk analysis to identify the flood-prone areas. A multiple hazard map prepared by the World Bank (2009) indicates probable hazard of coastal erosion, while another study by the World Bank (2013) estimated the increase of the mean sea level in the long term until 2080. The future urban areas must be delineated to avoid those natural hazard areas. Figure 6.3.3 shows the hazard areas of the following natural disasters:
High tide: Lands lower than 2.6 m in elevation Flood-prone areas in existing urban areas in Pikine and Guédiawaye: detention ponds and main drainage facilities in Guédiawaye and Pikine designated by PROGEP Flood-prone areas in suburbs of Rufisque, Thiès and Mbour: water courses with water depth more than 0.5 m in the event of rainfall at 10-year return period and retention ponds for agriculture Coastal erosion
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.3 Hazard Areas for Natural Disaster, Factories and Gas Pipeline
In addition to the natural disasters, DPC specifies the hazard areas that cover the factories at risk of explosion, fires and toxicity, as well as a gas pipeline. Figure 6.3.3 depicts the location of those hazard areas related to industry and gas pipelines.
(3) Protection of Hilly and Forest Areas Topography, water courses and green areas represented by forests and farmlands create the characteristic landscapes of the area’s local identity. The master plan should be drawn up to reflect the local identity. The opinion survey reveals the wishes of residents, who demand amenity and recreation areas offered by parks, open spaces and green areas.
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The Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development designates the classified forests. The existing land use map prepared in the Study identifies the existing forests, agriculture and savanna areas. Furthermore, the topographic survey recognizes water courses, lakes and steep slope areas. These are the resources for creating the green networks and nodes in the Study Area. Figure 6.3.4 shows the location of those natural resources that will be linked with a green corridor. The flood-prone areas are preserved as farmlands to form part of the green network, although those areas are unsuitable for urbanization.
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.4 Natural Resources and Green Network in the Study Area
(4) Direction of Urbanization in Regional Context The spatial layout of the Study Area must be planned to match the regional context. The National Agency for Regional Development prepared the Master Plan for the Territorial Development of the Dakar-Thiès-Mbour Area (“DTM Plan”) in 2015. This plan proposes a vision, strategic objectives and actions for the development of the triangular area encompassing Dakar Region, Thiès city and Mbour city. The DTM Plan designates the urban expansion in the east and southeast directions; however, the northeast direction is specified for the Niayes agricultural areas other than areas along the main road to Bayakh. Lac Rose and its surrounding areas are specified as ecologically sensitive areas that are likely to become environmentally protected areas. Figure 6.3.5 shows the spatial layout formulated in the DTM Plan.
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Source: ANAT Figure 6.3.5 Urban Expansion Matching the Regional Context indicated in DTM Plan
(5) Examination of Spatial Development Scenarios Four conceptual development scenarios were established to examine the probability of a future urban growth pattern in the Study Area. Figure 6.3.6 shows images of the four development scenarios. The urban poles are defined as the areas accommodating urban activities such as business, commercial and public services at national, regional and urban levels, while the urban centers are the areas accommodating urban activities for residents and local communities. The first scenario (Scenario M) depicts the future urban areas with the seven urban poles proposed in the 2025 Master Plan. This scenario allows urban sprawl to encroach into the Niayes areas, flood-prone areas and ecologically sensitive areas. The envisaged urban structure needs to be modified. The second and third scenarios (A-1 and A-2) assume that the new urban poles will be created and urbanization will extend its limits on the basis of utilization of existing infrastructure without any control for the preservation of important land. Both scenarios inherit the concept of Scenario M to create the Diamniadio urban pole, while the other six urban poles are changed to urban centers. This change aims to ensure the maturity of the Diamniadio urban pole. The second scenario (Scenario A-1) will encourage intensive investments in urban development in Diamniadio, creating a new urban pole that competes with the existing urban pole in Plateau. The third scenario (Scenario A-2) is the creation of a third urban pole in Daga Kholpa located next to the new international airport. This scenario absorbs the investments in Diamniadio, to some extent, into the Daga Kholpa area. This scenario supports a shift of the development direction, from eastwards along NR2 to southeastwards along NR1. The fourth scenario (Scenario B) enhances the policy integration including the environmental aspect by preserving the forest areas and the areas suitable for agriculture. The new urban area will be created outside the hazard areas. Urbanization will be directed to the southeast, avoiding urban encroachment into the classified forest in the east and the Niayes area in the north. The Daga Kholpa urban pole assists in boosting the southeastward development.
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Scenario M: The 2025 Master Plan
Scenario A-1: Urbanization Trend Case with Diamniadio Urban Pole
Scenario A-2: Urbanization Trend Case with Diamniadio Urban Pole and Daga Kholpa Urban Pole
Scenario B: Environmental Oriented Case with Policy Integration with Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.6 Image of the 2025 Master Plan and Three Development Scenarios
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Corresponding to the established development scenarios, the land suitability for urbanization is analyzed for three cases. Table 6.3.6 shows the weighted points for each evaluating criterion. The table also shows combinations of the evaluation criteria that are applied to analyze urbanization potential in each scenario. Distribution of weighted points is estimated for each evaluation criterion by using GIS tools as shown in Figure 6.3.7. The urbanization potential is calculated by overlaying the estimated points for each scenario.
Table 6.3.6 Combination of Evaluation Criteria for Urbanization Potential Analysis Scen Scen Scen Criteria Unit -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 ario ario ario A-1 A-2 B > > > > > < < < Slope % 0 X X X 15 13 11 9 7 7 3 1 Water body (Lake, Inside X X X River and Natural Conditions Natural Swamp) Access to < < < < < m Other X X X road 1,000 800 600 400 200 Access to bus route < < < < m Other X X X (AFTU 800 600 400 200
and DDD) Access to railway < m Other X X X station 200 incl. PTB Dakar, Access to Rufis Pikine, water m que, X X X Guédia supply Thiès
Infrastructure Conditions Infrastructure waye Access to waste m Other Inside X X X water treatment Access to m Other < 200 X X X electricity From From Diam Diam From Access to niadi niadi < < < < < < Diam Urban min o + o + 60 50 40 30 20 10 niadi Pole Daga Daga o Khol Khol pa pa Flood Inside X prone area
High tide Inside X area Hazard for dangerous Inside X materials Classified Inside X forest area Social and Environmental Conditions Environmental and Social Forest area Inside X
Suitable land for Inside X agriculture use Source: JICA Study Team Note: X means the criteria to be analyzed.
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Access to Urban Pole Access to Urban Pole (Plateau and Diamniadio) (Plateau, Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa)
Slope Urbanization Trend Case with Diamniadio Urban Pole (Scenario M)
Urbanization Trend Case with Diamniadio Urban Scenario B: Environmental Oriented Case with Pole and Daga Kholpa Urban Pole Policy Integration with Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa (Scenarios A-1 and A-2) Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.7 Result of Land Suitability Analysis for Urbanization
The four scenarios above were reviewed in the context of the broad regional structure. Dakar is the starting point of the Niayes area, stretching toward the north and the main horticultural area in the country. The Niayes area forms a green belt connected to the classified forest to the east of the new airport. This green belt should be preserved, even though Dakar continues to attract migration from the regions, causing a threat of encroachment into the green areas, while urbanization will be directed to the east and southeast interlinking with Thiès and Mbour, respectively. The two urban poles of Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa support this development direction. Further analysis of the four scenarios is made in natural, social, and economic aspects in a strategic environmental assessment, as expressed in Chapter 9 of this report. Among the four scenarios, the fourth scenario is the most desirable pattern, in that it fits into the
6-28 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I regional context as well as meeting the local need for a balanced development with a multipolar structure. The fourth scenario is elaborated to formulate a land use plan.
(6) Delineation of Urban Growth Boundary The continued influx of population is forcing the expansion of built-up areas. Currently, expansion of housing areas is underway in unsuitable locations such as classified forests and hazard areas. It is necessary to distinguish suitable areas for urbanization from those areas to be controlled or restricted. For identification of future urbanization areas, the protection and enhancement of public interest need to be in focus. Specifically, the following three factors are critically important for the sustainable development of the Study Area:
Setting of the boundaries of the urbanization to keep the city compact Restriction of housing in hazard areas to ensure safe lives for citizens and enable efficient provision of public services Conservation of agricultural land to ensure rainwater infiltration and groundwater recharge and mitigate the rainfall run-off discharge Making a city area compact has become a primary urban policy worldwide. By keeping the urbanized area compact, the efficiency of infrastructure investment will be increased, while the everyday energy consumption of citizens will be reduced. In order to keep the urbanized area compact, it is necessary to change the trend of urban sprawl taking place in various forms in the Study Area. In this light, it is proposed to introduce the UGB, which is to demarcate the administration area into two areas: i) the urban promotion area, and ii) the urban control area. It is proposed that the UGB is set on the alignment around the main agglomeration in the Study Area. Future urban area is to be encouraged inside the UGB, while it is to be controlled or discouraged outside it. Outside the urban promotion area, construction of houses will be basically prohibited, except for those to be used for farmers’ own housing. Figure 6.3.8 shows a conceptual drawing of the UGB and the two kinds of areas for urbanization.
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Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.8 Urban Growth Boundary in the Study Area
The capacity of the urban promotion area is examined if the land area adequately meets the land demand. The population density is estimated at 147.0 persons/ha in the existing urban area, which is well-matured with housing, commercial, industry and logistics uses (Figure 6.3.9). Based on the population density, the required urban area is estimated at 41,388 ha to meet the future population of 6.1 million in 2035 (Table 6.3.7). The proposed urban promotion area covers the land area of 50,828 ha. Thus, the proposed urban growth Source: JICA Study Team boundary is sufficient for the land demand in Figure 6.3.9 Urban Area in Maturity 2035.
Table 6.3.7 Required Urban Promotion Area in 2035 Item Unit Value Population in 2013 in Matured Urban Area person 2,867,569 Land Area of Matured Urban Area ha 19,501 Population Density in Matured Urban Area person/ha 147.0 Estimated Population in Study Area in 2035 person 6,084,000 Required Urban Promotion Area in 2035 ha 41,388 Proposed Urban Promotion Area ha 50,828 Source: JICA Study Team
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(7) Preliminary Assessment for Candidate Sites for Sub-centers The urban structure of the Study Area needs to be transformed to a more polycentric shape, by introducing sub-centers in each urban agglomeration. This will help transform the urban structure into a more decentralized one, consisting of self-sufficient agglomeration. Each of these sub-centers needs to have good access from all parts of its coverage area, while urban agglomerations need to be connected to each other. The selection of suitable sites for sub-center development entails certain conditions, as follows:
Availability of sufficient size of land block in which existing land use is vacant and agricultural Physical location of the site within the agglomeration to provide good access from all parts of the agglomeration itself Access and connectivity by existing arterial roads in the Study Area Spatially balanced location in terms of relationship to other sub-center candidate sites Figure 6.3.10 shows candidate sites for the development of sub-centers, which satisfy the above requirements.
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.10 Location of Sub-Center Candidate Sites
(8) Links between Urban Poles and Sub-centers The urban poles and sub-centers need to be connected by good access to residential areas in the hinterlands and to/from other urban poles/sub-centers and main cities. The latter factor affects the spatial composition of the future urban structure. Links between urban poles and sub-centers are examined on the following criteria:
Consistency with existing arterial network of national, regional, department and urban roads
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Consistency with the 2025 Master Plan Consistency with the road network proposed in the existing transportation sector plans Availability of land for new road construction Figure 6.3.11 shows the identified links between urban poles and sub-centers along with the existing centers. Figure 6.3.12 shows a comparison of the identified links with the existing arterial roads, the 2025 Master Plan and the road network proposed in the existing plans.
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.11 Identified Links between Urban Centers
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Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.3.12 Comparison of Proposed Links with Existing Road Network and Transport Sector Plan
6.4 Envisaged Future Urban Structure
6.4.1 Overall Urban Structure
Following the direction discussed for the spatial development framework, the future urban structure is elaborated to show the envisaged urbanization pattern. The following issues are taken into account:
Promotion of east and southeast urban expansion with the Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa urban poles Promotion of development along mass public transport Suppression of urbanization in hazard areas Conservation of the Niayes areas and classified forest areas Creation of green belt encompassing agglomeration Creation of inter-regional trunk road and urban trunk road to interlink urban centers Transformation of the industrial areas along the coast to public use Differentiation of urban poles and urban centers with unique functions Departments and towns, instead of communes, bearing the role of service bases in consideration of still weak function and inadequate environment of communes
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Figure 6.4.1 6.4.1 Figure Structure Urban Overall Envisaged
eam JICA T Study JICA
Source:
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6.4.2 Urban Structure by Agglomeration
Following the overall urban structure, urban structure is elaborated for the four major segments in the Study Area as described below. This attempts to differentiate the types of urban center.
(1) Urban Structure for National Capital Center (Dakar)
1) Spatial Development Concept The spatial development for this planning area aims to strengthen the “National Capital Center” of Senegal through the formulation of efficient mobility and revitalization of the city center to create a competitive and attractive capital center of the nation, taking advantage of the accumulation of central facilities for political, administrative, cultural and historical functions within a beautiful coastal environment, as one of the essential elements of “Cape Verde and Dakar”. The urban development goals can be set as follows:
Formulation of a symbolic place for Senegalese national pride as one of regional centers among Western African countries Succession and enhancement of natural, cultural and historical assets of Cape Verde as a unique and competitive urban environment of the capital city, upgrading CICES in cultural hotspot, for example Provision of an attractive national host environment to greet the arrivals of national and international visitors
2) Development Direction and Considerations This planning area is under the jurisdiction of the Department of Dakar, in parallel with Ville de Dakar and 19 communes in the Dakar Region, where high-density settlements together with key government offices, international organizations and cultural and historical facilities are concentrated in the limited land of the Cape Verde peninsula. The following are the development direction and considerations for this area: (a) To enhance the role and function of the national capital as one of the global hub cities Reorganizing effective and rational locations and spaces for government facilities with efficient access and networking by advanced telecommunication systems Strengthening national centers of commercial, business and finance, knowledge, health, culture and tourism Designing an attractive townscape with the fundamental concept of “beauty and order” for the capital through appropriate urban design and guidelines Strengthening national security in administrative and political centers (b) To formulate competitive centers with attractive living and working spaces with mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly and efficient public transportation system Promoting planned public transportation system in line with the project (DKL and CETUD), in combination with the reorganization of feeder transport measures including walkway network, modal transfer nodes and nodal commercial-business focal points Introducing public spaces including urban plazas, parks and open spaces for an attractive and comfortable working and living environment (c) To reorganize key transportation hubs (airport, seaport, train terminal) with efficient functions and compact spaces including the relocation of parts of facilities
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Formulating a competitive Dakar Port as one of the significant regional ports in West Africa through improvement of the transportation system for efficient access to inland cargo terminal Formulating an efficient, integrated transportation hub as a significant land transport terminal, taking account of an intra-inter public transport system (BRT/PBT) including a local ferry port system Reorganizing the existing international airport site by the most effective use of the airport after moving the functions of civil aviation to Diass (AIBD), taking account of potential utilizations by low-cost airlines, VIP and emergency air traffic, security and redevelopment for commercial business land development
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.4.2 Urban Structure for National Capital Center (Dakar)
(d) To enhance effective coastal management in order to secure public access and protect the shoreline environment, through non-structural measures (regulations, land use) and structural measures (coastal stabilization works), while taking into account not only citizens’ but also tourists’ services Improving unique waterfront areas through appropriate coastal land management and formulation of attractive open spaces and recreational networks as one of the most important elements of Dakar’s tourism image
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(e) To promote urban planning operations to improve the living environment of the population, renovating old and outdated parts of Plateau (Niaye Thioker, Reubeuss, Caille Findiw, Raïl, Médina) Land tenure restructuring and regularization of irregular or village type urban fabric (Ouakam, Ngor, Yoff, Cambérène, Hann, Grand Yoff, Grand Médine) Finalizing approval and application of Goree and Ngor Island preservation master plan Developing additional facilities in the frame of restructuring and renovation operations
(2) Urban Structure for Vibrant Sub-cities (Guédiawaye-Pikine)
1) Spatial Development Concept The spatial development for this planning area aims to formulate a “Vibrant Sub-City” in consideration of inclusive development by the promotion of local business/industries and improvement of the living environment, surmounting the disadvantages of the living environment, which include insufficient infrastructure, frequent inundations and the negative impact of the highest density settlement in the Study Area.
2) Development Direction and Considerations This planning area consists of the two departments of Guédiawaye and Pikine in the Dakar Region, where almost all lands have been fully utilized by high-density residential settlements, with the scattered Niayes as natural storm water reservoirs. Economic activities in this area consist of two sectors: the predominantly service and informal sector of business and cottage industries and the formal small and medium industries along the southern coastal area and Hann Bay. The following are development directions and considerations for this area: (a) To strengthen business infrastructure through development of the local distribution and market system, financial supports, technical supports and capacity development for product improvement, etc. (b) To encourage effective and competitive local economic development (craft, etc.) through infrastructure and access improvement in combination with urban restructuring and renewal measures Developing commune activity areas through the development of attractive commercial-business corridors in association with the future public transportation system on the key streets (Niayes, Pikine Nord) and routes connecting with Thiaroye-Malika-Keur Massar by the normal bus network Strengthening business infrastructure through development of the local distribution and market system, financial supports, technical supports and capacity development for product improvement, etc. (c) To promote sub-CBD for Pikine through application of the TOD concept as one of the urban redevelopment measures in combination with the future mass transit system (PTB) formulation Formulating urban core or urban center with multi-function for urban services including administration, commercial-business and market, public facilities such as health sector, transportation, etc. Promoting station area development at Thiaroye Gare with high-density and mixed-use development as the urban center of Pikine
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(d) To sustain and promote an urban ecological system in line with PASDUNE (Programme d'amélioration et de Sauvegarde Dunaire des Niayes), green centers and natural hazard mitigation, with educational and recreational functions for citizens Formulating two Green Garden Centers in Niayes at Patte d’Oie/Pikine Ouest and Mbao Forest as citizens’ parks Protecting and utilizing the Niayes in the settlement area as community parks and natural reservoirs in combination with a flood management program and using the coastal forest belt as open waterfront recreation spaces (e) To promote effective, resilient urban structure against natural hazards (e.g., inundation, coastal erosion, etc.) through appropriate land use and development control, in combination with urban restructuring and renewal measures Introducing buffer areas as green and open spaces at hazard prone areas in order to prevent settlements or built-up areas from inundation and coastal erosion on the northern coast Retaining and preserving existing land use of natural vegetation or agricultural fields along Niayes and coastal areas as buffer areas Improving waterfront areas through appropriate coastal land management and formulation of attractive open spaces and recreational networks, especially for critical coastal erosion areas such as the coast area proximity to Rufisque (f) To gradually reorganize Mbeubeuss landfill site and industrial areas along Hann Bay coast Reorganizing existing lands in unsuitable use in the urban area, which have caused negative environmental impacts on neighboring living areas, through appropriate changes of land use
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industry - AI: Agro AI:
Pikine) -
Recreation, IL: Industry / Logistic, Industry / Recreation, IL:
cities (Guédiawaye cities - b
Oriented Development, CBD: Central Business District, TR: Tourism / Tourism TR: District, CBD: Central Business Development, Oriented - Figure 6.4.3 6.4.3 Figure Su Vibrant for Structure Urban
CB: Commercial & Business, TOD: Transit TOD: Business, & CB: Commercial JICA Study Team Study JICA
Note: Source:
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(3) Urban Structure for Sub-capital City and Green Urban Villages (Rufisque-Diamniadio-Lac Rose-Bambilor)
1) Spatial Development Concept The spatial development for this planning area aims to formulate a “Sub-capital City” and “Green Urban Villages” in combination with Diamniadio, Rufisque and neighboring towns surrounded by high-potential agricultural land and villages. The urban development goal can be set as follows:
Creation of a sub-capital city (Diamniadio) with supplemental capital functions and a new economic center at the regional corridor’s crossroads Formulation of a “Green Growth Center” as one of the areas with highest potential for agricultural development and a green tourism focal point Formulation of supporting towns of the sub-capital city in the surrounding area
2) Development Direction and Considerations This peri-urban planning area is under the jurisdiction of Rufisque Department in Dakar Region, where urban sprawls have become a critical issue invading natural and agricultural lands and there are other potential areas for economic development by mining and tourism. The following are development directions and considerations for this area: (a) To promote Diamniadio development as the sub-capital city through mixed-use development Providing world-class urban services and sufficient infrastructure to support sub-capital urban functions of national administration, commercial-business center, hotels and convention centers, etc. Promoting an attractive “Knowledge Center” with the functions of new campus cities and research development and human resource development institutions Promoting formulation of a “Medical City” including world-class medical services targeting national and regional market in West Africa Promoting a logistic platform in Diamniadio through the creation of a terminal for heavy engine trucks, automobile technical visit center, warehouses and storage areas (b) To retain and foster Green Growth Centers alongside rural village improvement in association with Niayes protection Formulating modern agricultural industry development targeting the national and international agro-products market, taking account of food safety and security and the efficient distribution and development of value-added products Improving rural villages for the living and working environment with sufficient public services and infrastructure coupled with preservation measures in agricultural, market gardening and poultry farming at Déni Biram Ndao, Bambilor and other villages (c) To organize and manage appropriate urbanization in Rufisque Department to support the sub-capital city of Diamniadio through efficient urban services Controlling and managing disordered urban sprawls and providing sufficient urban services and infrastructure to improve quality of life in communities Promoting convenient and attractive commercial services targeting expected large population in this area, such as home centers, gardening centers, mega-supermarkets, etc. Controlling and managing urbanization in the areas around Bambilor village where housing subdivision projects are expanding, in order to prevent excessive expansion of housing areas into valuable agricultural lands in Niayes areas
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Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.4.4 Urban Structure for Sub-capital City and Green Urban Villages (Rufisque-Diamniadio-Lac Rose-Bambilor)
(d) To organize and manage the appropriate proximity of the mining industry to cities of Diamniadio and Rufisque with sufficient mitigation measures to prevent pollution of living areas at Bargny and Sendou (e) To promote, within the framework of Lac Rose pole development, a sustainable urbanization of the area through ecosystem preservation and management of possible risks and to formulate an attractive eco-rural tourism destination in Lac Rose and surroundings, utilizing the potential natural resources of Lac Rose, and the beachfront area with dunes and agricultural gardens (f) To formulate adequate coastal management with effective enforcement and control in Rufisque and Bargny
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(4) Urban Structure for Innovative Business City in Harmony with Green Urban Villages (Daga Kholpa-Diass)
1) Spatial Development Concept The spatial development for this planning area aims to formulate an “Innovative Business Park City” in association with sustainable and environmentally friendly infrastructure services, taking advantage of the proximity to the new international airport and one of the areas within the special economic zone. The creation of an airport town could be an appropriate concept. The urban development goals can be set as follows:
Innovative infrastructure provision with cost-efficient and intelligent infrastructure integrated through the use of technology such as energy, utility systems and smart mobility management Innovative business development to attract investments and to create green economy and business activities supported by business incubation centers, IT centers, aerospace industry and sky logistics center, etc. Innovative society with sustainable living environment including eco-friendly community and creative human resources through skills development centers, higher education centers and institutions for technological and business development Local government promotion
2) Development Direction and Considerations This planning area belongs to a part of Mbour Department in Thiès Region, where hilly natural and agricultural lands with scattered rural villages predominate at present and there are some flash floods. The following are development directions and considerations for this area: (a) To harmonize development between new developments and the existing rural community Sustaining rural communities in this planning area with certain entities in combination with promotion of their agricultural activities connecting with urban consumers Providing common public facilities and services for both new towns and rural communities Appropriate land and property management in both communities and new developments (b) To promote international gateway development and national economic corridor development under the DISEZ framework with incentives Promoting airport-front business and economic developments such as the air cargo-catering industry, export-oriented agri-business (flowers, etc.), hotels and convention centers, aeronautical maintenance center, aviation business training center, etc. Providing all necessary institutional frameworks such as tax incentives, on-site one-stop centers, regulations and development guidelines targeting a range of economic sectors including commercial and manufacturing activities and professional services in the urban business zone and adjacent industrial zones (c) To formulate a self-sustaining settlement with living and working places in association with efficient urban services supported by an innovative mobility and infrastructure system Promoting a mixed-use concept to provide opportunity for compatible uses that are closer together, creating a synergy effect, especially in the living and working environment
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Providing sustainable utility services taking account of the introduction of appropriate technology in terms of lower energy, reduced emissions, cost-effective facilities and operations (co-generation systems, renewable energy systems, etc.)
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.4.5 Urban Structure for Innovative Business Park City in Harmony with Urban Villages (Daga Kholpa-Diass)
(d) To develop green infrastructure without environmental deterioration, water resource destruction or flood hazards, in association with the Green Belt, to protect the natural environment Protecting and fostering the green environment in combination with agricultural land protection, nature protection areas, forestation programs and green recreation areas Providing appropriate infrastructure to avoid flood hazards and/or necessary buffer areas by natural areas or agricultural lands Rehabilitating and maintaining the hydrographic network disturbed by anthropogenic constraints related to infrastructure construction, to the ill-controlled urbanization and to some watercourse deviation (e) To formulate attractive coastal development with adequate coastal management and control
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Protecting and managing the coastal area by non-structural measures (land use regulation), structural measures (embankment, levee, etc.) and coastal restoration works Formulating attractive waterfront open spaces including parks and walkways in conjunction with the development of coastal micro-tourism areas (f) To formulate an attractive eco-rural tourism destination in Toubab Dialao and Poponguine, utilizing the potential coastal resources and the religious holy place for pilgrims at Poponguine (g) To enhance local village communities in combination with agriculture product development and living environment improvement Reorganizing existing local village communities by rational provision of substitution settlements with agricultural land in the urban pole development areas, in order not to dismantle their communities and to secure their living place and working opportunities where new urban pole developments are expected Improving living environment for local village communities in the area that is not affected by the new urban pole development and promoting agriculture development
6.5 Land Use Plan for 2035
6.5.1 Strategies for Land Use Planning in the Study Area
(1) Overall Land Development Strategy The strategic areas, such as the core of urban poles and sub-centers, city-level parks and open spaces, will be primarily developed for public facilities and government offices, which are not profitable for private developers. Establishment of these public facilities will facilitate change in urbanization trends, especially for business and commercial functions, and help transform the urban structure. However, the private sector developers will have to be the major players in other forms of urban development and housing estates.
(2) Strategy for Business and Commercial Area Development The location of business and commercial areas is the most essential factor in forming an urban structure. The existing business and commercial area, particularly in Dakar Plateau, needs to be reformed in the following directions:
Creation of attractive urban space as a symbol of the national capital Enhancement of the business environment as an economic center of Senegal with strong competitiveness in terms of efficiency in transport and communication The major strategies are common for both of the above directions, as follows:
Reform of spatial composition: The existing urban area does not have much vacant land for the provision of parks, which are necessary to create the city’s iconic image and increase amenities. To this end, it is proposed that some government offices and public facilities will be relocated to urban poles and sub-centers. It is hard to identify specific land plots for conversion to public open space at this moment, as making the decision will take some time for the government and concerned organizations. Formulation of the relocation plan and program need to be initiated by DUA and Dakar Department.
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Enhancement of efficiency and amenity: A reliable transport system needs to be secured together with good communication infrastructure. With a view to creating a high-class business environment, transport space needs to be rearranged in a pedestrian-oriented way. Given the rather wide ROW secured for streets, pedestrian-friendly spaces can be created by providing wider walkways with roadside trees to create shade from the summer sunshine. Roadside development incorporated with mass public transport: Due to rapid urbanization, it is difficult to accommodate sufficient sites for sub-centers in and around the urban areas. Roadside commercial and business areas will be an option to form new commercial and business areas. Alignment along the mass transport routes such as BRT will be considered for this option. In light of the objectives to transform the urban structure, the new urban poles and sub-centers will be developed in the following directions:
Creation of urban area with low building coverage ratio to secure large open space: Development will be designed with suitable building coverage ratio to provide parks and greenery for citizens in the urban poles and sub-center sites. Locating government offices and key public facilities such as higher education and referral hospitals: The facilities to be constructed within the boundaries of the respective urban poles and sub-centers will be limited to those for government and public functions for the following reasons: Creating a magnet for accumulation of industries related to the government functions located in the sub-center, Securing smoother land acquisition enabled by pure public usage after development. Securing of land: It is ideal if all the land for development of urban poles and sub-centers is acquired before it becomes difficult due to change in land use. Alternatively, a system for the restriction of private land use may be established and monitored. Those non-building uses such as farming may be permitted, as well as a limited scale of buildings for tentative uses such as tents and pavilions. The land can only be obtained immediately before the implementation.
(3) Strategy for Housing Areas Development Housing is a basic function of a city, which needs to be properly ensured by urban management. (a) Apartment complex development: Apartments are constructed in areas where the land price is too high for average employees to purchase lands for the construction of detached houses. The best location for the development of apartment complexes will be the area adjacent to urban poles and sub-centers. The complexes may contain offices for private companies and commercial facilities, as well as apartments. This will help accumulate business and commercial functions around the sub-centers. (b) Small-scale residential estate development: To minimize further expansion of spontaneous areas, the development of detached housing estates needs to be monitored. Given the difficulty in purchasing large blocks of land, the most development that private developers can manage is a kind of smaller-scale housing estate. This “mini-development” creates problems as many housing units are constructed at a rate beyond the pace of infrastructure and public facility development. To reduce this risk, the permission system needs to be established as follows:
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Provision of infrastructure inside the development area for such items as paved road properly connecting to the main road of the city, pre-installation of water pipes and septic tanks, and Financial contribution to the relevant organizations for appropriate parts of the financial burden created by the development, such as construction of schools, clinics and playgrounds. (c) Upgrading of spontaneous settlement: It is not possible to complete the upgrading of all the spontaneous settlements within the lifetime of the 2035 Master Plan. These settlements are not developed according to a plan; some fundamental requirements are missing. Typical examples are lands and facilities for schools and playgrounds. In order to secure lands for these public facilities in the spontaneous settlements, it is essential to formulate a detailed land use plan on a community scale by the participation of residents or by the residents’ own work, in order to obtain the full understanding and agreement on land preservation and acquisition. A key approach for this to happen is to set the preparation of the community-level land use plan as a condition for implementation of upgrading projects by the communes. The communes and DUA department office will be responsible for supporting the preparation of the land use plan at the commune level.
(4) Strategy for Development of Industrial Areas The direction of industrial land development is intended to support movement of industries to the designated industrial areas. The development of industrial areas will be implemented primarily by the APROSI and APIX, and possibly by private sector developers.
1) Provision of Large Area along Trunk Roads Dakar has long been a major international logistics hub and will continue to be so. The logistics industry may be a prime sector that grows along with the economic development of Senegal and neighboring countries. One advantage of the logistics sector is that it does not require a lot of water for its operations. Another possible advantage is that the productivity of the industry depends on the availability of large plots of land supported by high-class roads. Considering these factors, it is ideal to reserve large areas for industrial use along the arterial trunk roads.
2) Allocation of Industrial Areas Another factor in assigning an industrial area is to help promote economically self-sufficient agglomeration. For this reason, industrial areas are designated in the vicinities of agglomerations and along key logistics facilities such as airports and seaports. Land use demand is projected for function of industries as well as services based on the estimated socioeconomic framework. The land area for industries covers designated industrial zones and other industries located in urban areas, as shown in Table 6.5.1.
Table 6.5.1 Land Demand Estimate for Residential, Industry, and Service Item Unit 2025 2035 Industry (located in the urban area) ha 1,028 1,163 Industry (located in the industrial zones or industrial areas) ha 3,084 5,425 Services ha 993 1,401 Source: JICA Study Team Note: The share of employees for industries in the urban area is estimated at 50%, 40% and 30% in 2013, 2025 and 2035 and that of industries in industrial zones is 50%, 60% and 70% in 2013, 2025 and 2035,
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respectively.
3) Restructuring of Existing Industrial Areas A large number of factories are located in residential areas. These factories worsen the living environment in surrounding areas and need to be strategically restructured. The factories with environmentally heavy impact and high hazard potential will be relocated to the designated industrial areas. The factories with less environmental impact and preference for proximity to the market (populated area) will be restructured in the original neighborhood location. Figure 6.5.1 shows existing industrial areas to be restructured.
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.5.1 Industrial Areas to be Restructured
(5) Strategy for Parks and Open Space Development Parks and green space are an important factor in raising the level of amenities for urban life. It is also important from the point of view of retaining the identity of the green peninsula, the Cape Verde. In order to increase the green space for a fast-growing population, it is necessary to combine various areas for recreational use. The following are key areas for greening and development of parks:
Creation of business area with open spaces: Relocation of some government facilities will be pursued to convert to public parks in existing business areas, particularly in Plateau. On the other hand, development will be implemented with a low building coverage ratio to create open spaces in the urban poles and sub-centers. This kind of open space can be used for several purposes, including events. Main public parks at the city level will be allocated next to the sub-centers for improving the urban amenities and securing good accessibility to those public parks. The land area of the public parks will be more than 1 m2 per person to meet the target designated in the sustainability diagnosis.
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Greening of open spaces: There are open spaces that are not suitable for building use, such as hazard areas, riversides, farmlands, forests and cemeteries. The best way to reduce the risk in hazard areas is to leave those areas unused by urbanization, although they can be alternatively used for open spaces and parks. The number of farmers will decrease in the future as many of them seek better profit from land by converting to urban usages. To encourage farmers to continue agriculture and obtain positive support for the agriculture preservation policy, it may be necessary to introduce programs to support the enhancement of agricultural productivity. These open spaces will be interlinked by greenways to create the urban amenity of a green network. The greenways consist of pedestrian routes along roads in the commercial areas and pedestrian routes along rivers and channels.
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.5.2 Green Network Plan
6.5.2 Formulation of Land Use Plan
(1) Scope of Land Use Plan As a general practice in other countries, different land use plans are formulated for different purposes, as listed in Table 6.5.2. The 2035 Master Plan attempts to cover several kinds of land use plans, with different roles and objectives.
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Table 6.5.2 Roles and Characteristics of Land Use Plan by Type of Plan Type of Plan Roles and Objectives Characteristics Urban Master To provide a broad vision of future Does not control individual building Plan development of a city activities To set the general guidelines Not combined with legal power against To indicate the key elements of urban third parties development Consisting of broad land use categories only Urban facilities are not depicted, except for key transport infrastructure, with indicative lines Indicates places dedicated to the most important activities, to wooded and preferential areas Indicates the areas with PUD, special development zone and special protection areas Zoning Plan To provide information on accepted Supported by legal enforcement system building types and shapes for individuals Not suitable for showing future vision as it needs to comply with the existing situation (because of legal power) UGB is depicted Land use categories are defined by laws and/or regulations Planned city-level urban facilities are depicted if already approved Detailed Plan To provide information on acceptable Supported by legal enforcement system building types and shapes for individuals UGB is depicted if it exists in the area Land use categories are defined by laws and/or regulations Planned city community-level urban facilities are depicted if already approved Source: JICA Study Team The land use plan in the 2035 Master Plan is to perform the role of the Urban Master Plan, plus some characteristics of the zoning plan, for the following reasons:
This master plan is to revise the 2025 Master Plan to share a renewed future vision. The land use plan needs to put emphasis on presenting a clear vision rather than corresponding to specific conditions in different areas. A complicated mapping needs to be avoided in this master plan, as it does not aim to control building activities on individual land plots. The land use plan will have a certain legal power as the 2025 Master Plan had ultimate authority on every land use issue. Thus the new plan better utilizes this power over land for restriction and/or protection purposes. Lands for some critically important urban facilities need to be distinguished and protected from other types of use. These are the city-level facilities including trunk roads, major public facilities and greenery areas. However, the exact boundary of these facilities needs to be clarified by detailed survey work.
(2) Land Use Category First, the Study Area is divided into two broad categories: one is for urban usage (UPA) and the other is not for urban usage (UCA). Regarding the latter, use of land for urban purposes is prohibited but is allowed for agricultural purposes. This includes the area outside the UGB. In the restriction area, agricultural activities are promoted instead and farmers’ houses are allowed to be built. For households
6-49 Project for Urban Master Plan of Dakar and Neighboring Area for 2035 Final Report: Volume. I with several income sources, the houses are classified as urban usage and thus prohibited, unless the primary income of the household is dependent on agricultural cultivation of nearby farmland. Second, the Urban Promotion Area is further classified into three broad categories according to the urban function, namely: residential, business and commercial, and industrial. The residential and business and commercial categories are sub-divided into more specific categories of varying density. This is done because it is necessary to consider the demand for infrastructure development. Regarding the industrial functions, a single category is given. Third, some of the major urban facilities need to be depicted in the land use plan. The facilities to be depicted in this master plan include: i) roads, seaport and airport, ii) parks and greenery, and iii) rivers, lakes and ponds. Although these are shown in the land use map, the boundaries of these facilities need to be clarified through detailed survey works. It is especially important to define the ROW of planned roads in order for them to be practical for the control of individual land use activities. The land use plan indicates the main roads for forming urban agglomeration. The conditions and criteria for assignment of land use categories are summarized in Table 6.5.3.
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Table 6.5.3 Conditions and Criteria for Assignment of Land Use Category Conditions and Policies of Assignment UPA UCA Code Land Use CB CBD For areas with dedicated commercial buildings, X - government offices, referral hospitals, universities and other higher urban functions at regional and national level For areas with commercial buildings, administrative office, high schools and other urban functions at department level RD Roadside Development For areas with multistory buildings in which the X - lower floors are used for business and commercial purposes along main roads MX Mixed Use For areas with multistory housing of which the lower X - floors are used for commercial and business activities UC Urban Community For areas with mainly housing areas and functions X - servicing the daily needs of the population Covering existing formal settlements IL Industrial and Logistics For areas exclusively for industrial use and logistics X - Covering existing industrial estates and new industrial areas in and around Diamniadio, Daga Kholpa and DISEZ TR Tourism and Recreation For areas with service activities more enhanced for X - tourism TRs Rural Tourism and For areas with service activities directed to - X Recreation agro-tourism UTs Utility For areas with existing and new international airport, X X seaport and main bus terminal SE Security For areas of military camps X X PK Public Park Public park at city level with stadium, gymnasium X X and other types of facilities GP Green Promotion and For areas to form greenery around urban promotion X X Management areas Covering land unsuitable for urbanization, such as hazard areas, forest and classified forest Covering lands for public uses, such as cemetery and parks AG Agriculture For areas with agriculture use. In the long term, the X X area would be a candidate for urbanization after 2035. CA Coastal Protection For areas along the coast. Development is subject to a X X technical assessment to ensure suitable land use, otherwise the urban development is restricted. RC Rural Community For existing built-up areas in urban control area - X WB Water Body For area of existing lakes, rivers and swamps X X Source: JICA Study Team In addition, regulatory conditions are overlaid on the land use plan as a tool to manage the urbanization.
Classified forest area: Use of land for building purposes is totally prohibited in the environmentally sensitive areas designated in the Forest Code. Enhanced agriculture area: Cash crop production is promoted and continued in the long term. Restructuring area: Restructuring in existing deteriorated areas in urban areas is implemented to resolve the current problems of living environment. The candidate restructuring areas cover the following:
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Spontaneous areas irregularly created with low provision of public facilities, such as roads, schools, health services and infrastructure. Industrial areas located adjacent to housing areas and coastal areas imposing risks of pollution and industrial accidents. Mbeubeuss disposal site causing heavy environmental deterioration due to overemployment and non-provision of sanitary equipment. The disposal site will be closed and reclaimed for a public park.
Redevelopment area: Urban North of Rufisque Bambilor and redevelopment at the strategic area surrounding area Pikine and location is promoted to Guediawaye area Diamniadio and surrounding area strengthen the urban structure, as specified in the 2035 Master Plan. Detailed urban plan area: A
detail urban plan is required to South of Rufisque enforce the land use control in area
the Study Area. Specifically, Daga Kholpa area the following are the target New international airport areas for the detail urban plan: and surrounding area Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.5.3 Detailed Urban Plan Areas
Diamniadio and surrounding area to promote a new urban pole. The hazardous areas of high tide and flooding are examined in detail. North of Rufisque area to control conurbation to north of highway. The flooding areas are examined in detail to provide a safe urban area. The road network is carefully designed to prevent development of spontaneous housing areas. South of Rufisque area to control conurbation around Rufisque municipality. Daga Kholpa area to promote a new urban pole. The urban development is designed to be well-balanced with the existing villages. New international airport and surrounding area to control urban development around the new international airport. Bambilor and surrounding area to control the urbanization in Bambilor and Lac-Rose, as the urban development is well-balanced with the surrounding agriculture areas. Reserve area for infrastructure: Key infrastructure such as sewage treatment plant is provided. Reserve area for urban area around airport: The reserve area includes the right of way for the new international airport to accommodate airport-related activities and urban development in accordance with Decree No. 2010-894. The reserve area also covers the existing international airport. The type of urban use will be determined in due course. Special area around airport: Land transaction is prohibited. Use of land for building purposes requires special permission from responsible entity and AIDB, with conditions that a building has airport noise countermeasure and vibration control in accordance with Decree No. 2010-894.
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Obstacle limitation surfaces around airport: Height of building around an international airport must be lower than the specified surface to secure approach and take-off climb in airspace. Figure 6.5.4 illustrates the obstacle limitation surfaces.
150 60 8,400 3,600 3,000
195 45
4,000 11,000
Source: Règlements Aéronautiques du Sénégal, Agence Nationale de l’Aviation Civile et de la Météorologie Note: “S” means the slope gradient. Height is in meter unit. Figure 6.5.4 Obstacle Limitation Surface
(3) Proposed Land Use Plan Figure 6.5.3 shows the proposed land use map drawn based on the criteria described above. Table 6.5.4 shows the composition of land use corresponding to the proposed land use plan.
Table 6.5.4 Composition of Proposed Land Use Code Land Use Land Area (ha) % Urban Urban Urban Urban Promotion Control Total Promotion Control Total Area Area Area Area CB CBD 2,726 0 2,726 3.3 0.0 3.3 RD Roadside Development 1,191 0 1,191 1.5 0.0 1.5 MX Mixed Use 3,432 0 3,432 4.2 0.0 4.2 UC Urban Community 24,887 0 24,887 30.4 0.0 30.4 IL Industrial and Logistics 5,598 0 5,598 6.8 0.0 6.8 TR Tourism and Recreation 688 0 688 0.8 0.0 0.8 TRs Rural Tourism and Recreation 0 385 385 0.0 0.5 0.5 UT Utility 2,115 0 2,115 2.6 0.0 2.6 SE Security 190 0 190 0.2 0.0 0.2 PK Public Park 1,143 0 1,143 1.4 0.0 1.4 GP Green Promotion and Management 4,500 10,615 15,115 5.5 13.0 18.5 AG Agriculture 2,137 18,509 20,646 2.6 22.6 25.2 CA Coastal Protection 1,066 0 1,066 1.3 0.0 1.3 RC Rural Community 0 705 705 0.0 0.9 0.9 WB Water Body 1,143 864 2,006 1.4 1.1 2.4 IS Island 13 0 13 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 50,828 31,078 81,906 62.1 37.9 100.0 Source: JICA Study Team
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Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.5.5 Land Use Plan for Study Area in 2035
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6.5.3 Population Distribution by Agglomeration
Assignment of population is established for the Urban Promotion Area and Urban Control Area to provide the planning conditions for infrastructure. The Urban Promotion Area is subdivided into 10 agglomerations to represent the characteristics of urbanization, as shown in Figure 6.5.6. Ultimate capacity is estimated on the basis of the land use plan and the planned population density (Table 6.5.5 and Figure 6.5.7). In response to the maturity of existing urban areas, it is assumed that Source: JICA Study Team population growth will progress in the three Figure 6.5.6 Agglomeration for Study Area agglomerations of Dakar, Suburban and Rufisque until 2025, while Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa will start urbanization. As the agglomerations become saturated, urbanization will be accelerated in the latter two urban poles. The surplus population will be accommodated in the other agglomerations of Pout, Sindia and Coast. Table 6.5.6 shows the estimated population by agglomeration and urban control area in 2025 and 2035.
Table 6.5.5 Planned Population Density by Land Use Category and Agglomeration Land Use Dakar and Suburban Rufisque, Diamniadio Sébikhotane, Sindia, and Daga Kholpa Pout, Bambilor and Coast (High density) (Medium density) (Low density) CBD 80 60 50 Roadside Development 300 200 150 Mixed Use 400 300 250 Tourism and Recreation 200 150 100 Urban Community 300 200 150 Source: JICA Study Team
Source: JICA Study Team Figure 6.5.7 High and Medium Population Density Areas
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Table 6.5.6 Estimated Population Distribution by Agglomeration Block Area Population Density Capacity Density Growth Rate Population Density 2013 2013 2025 2035 2025 2035 2035 (ha) (person) (pers/ha) (person) (pers/ha) (%/year) (%/year) (person) (person) (pers/ha) Dakar 7,712 1,112,888 144 1,455,208 189 1.90 0.35 1,394,900 1,444,500 187 Suburban 8,750 1,457,971 167 1,835,312 210 1.68 0.30 1,780,600 1,834,700 210 Rufisque 11,795 439,881 37 1,882,618 160 7.03 5.24 994,200 1,656,300 140 Diamniadio 6,608 28,697 4 626,058 95 18.00 10.00 209,100 542,400 82 Daga-Kholpa 7,955 23,946 3 404,038 51 12.00 9.00 93,300 220,900 28 Sébikhotan 1,603 24,366 15 160,252 100 6.00 8.00 49,000 105,800 66 e Sindia 704 4,101 6 80,488 114 4.00 5.00 6,600 10,800 15 Pout 481 5,703 12 60,702 126 4.00 5.00 9,100 14,800 31 Coast 1,599 36,097 23 163,250 102 4.00 5.00 57,800 94,200 59 Bambilor 3,622 31,424 9 528,071 146 4.00 5.00 50,300 81,900 23 Urban Control 31,079 40,922 1 77,700 3 3.25 2.60 60,100 77,700 3 Area Total 81,907 3,205,996 39 7,273,697 89 3.25 2.60 4,705,000 6,084,000 74 Source: JICA Study Team Following the estimated population by agglomeration, the population is estimated for each administrative unit such as region, department and commune, as shown in Table 6.5.7. Table 6.5.8 shows the estimated population growth rate by administrative unit.
Table 6.5.7 Estimated Population by Administrative Unit Administrative Unit Population in 2013 Population in 2025 Population in 2035 UPA UCA Total UPA UCA Total UPA UCA Total Dakar Region 3,122,280 14,916 3,137,196 4,521,247 21,930 4,543,177 5,735,472 28,357 5,763,829 Biscuiterie 68,547 0 68,547 70,891 0 70,891 71,291 0 71,291 Cambérène 52,420 0 52,420 54,048 0 54,048 54,298 0 54,298 Dakar Plateau 36,393 0 36,393 39,069 0 39,069 39,539 0 39,539 Dieuppeul 36,917 0 36,917 44,542 0 44,542 45,883 0 45,883 Derklé Fann-PointE-A 18,841 0 18,841 36,163 0 36,163 39,210 0 39,210 mitié Grand Dakar 47,012 0 47,012 47,129 0 47,129 47,149 0 47,149 Grand Yoff 185,503 0 185,503 190,734 0 190,734 191,654 0 191,654 Gueule Tapée, 52,270 0 52,270 58,429 0 58,429 59,514 0 59,514 Fass-Colobane
Hann-Bel Air 67,962 0 67,962 97,542 0 97,542 102,714 0 102,714 HLM 39,126 0 39,126 52,710 0 52,710 55,101 0 55,101 Dakar Médina 81,982 0 81,982 86,767 0 86,767 87,609 0 87,609 Mermoz 29,798 0 29,798 98,910 0 98,910 111,067 0 111,067 Sacré-Coeur Ngor 17,383 0 17,383 34,519 0 34,519 37,534 0 37,534 Ouakam 74,692 0 74,692 95,457 0 95,457 99,109 0 99,109 Parcelles 159,498 0 159,498 159,760 0 159,760 159,807 0 159,807 Assainies Patte d'Oie 41,106 0 41,106 49,314 0 49,314 50,758 0 50,758 Sicap Liberté 47,164 0 47,164 60,762 0 60,762 63,155 0 63,155 Yoff 89,442 0 89,442 154,497 0 154,497 165,939 0 165,939 Sub-total 1,146,056 0 1,146,056 1,431,243 0 1,431,243 1,481,331 0 1,481,331 Golf Sud 92,345 0 92,345 103,855 0 103,855 105,624 0 105,624 Medina
33,761 0 33,761 33,761 0 33,761 33,761 0 33,761 Gounass Ndiareme 35,171 0 35,171 35,176 0 35,176 35,176 0 35,176 Limamoulaye Sam Notaire 78,660 0 78,660 80,839 0 80,839 81,176 0 81,176
Guediawaye Wakhinane 89,721 0 89,721 89,889 0 89,889 89,915 0 89,915 Nimzatt Sub-total 329,658 0 329,658 343,520 0 343,520 345,652 0 345,652 Daliford 30,418 0 30,418 52,260 0 52,260 55,626 0 55,626 Diamaguene 128,512 0 128,512 132,893 0 132,893 133,568 0 133,568
Sicap Mbao Djidah 96,951 0 96,951 97,195 0 97,195 97,232 0 97,232 Thiaroye Kaw Pikine Guinaw Rail 30,057 0 30,057 30,981 0 30,981 31,124 0 31,124 Nord Guinaw Rail 39,859 0 39,859 46,940 0 46,940 48,031 0 48,031
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Sud Keur Massar 201,654 0 201,654 293,401 0 293,401 345,990 0 345,990 Malika 32,131 0 32,131 40,037 0 40,037 41,720 0 41,720 Mbao 96,320 0 96,320 193,709 0 193,709 206,980 0 206,980 Pikine Est 32,451 0 32,451 32,451 0 32,451 32,451 0 32,451 Pikine Nord 46,780 0 46,780 47,543 0 47,543 47,661 0 47,661 Pikine Ouest 52,154 0 52,154 56,489 0 56,489 56,723 0 56,723 Thiaroye Gare 24,834 0 24,834 28,070 0 28,070 28,569 0 28,569 Thiaroye Sur 52,773 0 52,773 78,464 0 78,464 82,421 0 82,421 Mer Tivaoune 40,561 0 40,561 43,071 0 43,071 43,459 0 43,459 Diaksao Yeumbeul 168,378 0 168,378 171,455 0 171,455 171,930 0 171,930 Nord Yeumbeul Sud 96,956 0 96,956 97,562 0 97,562 97,655 0 97,655 Sub-total 1,170,789 0 1,170,789 1,442,521 0 1,442,521 1,521,140 0 1,521,140 Rufisque Est 70,126 0 70,126 83,564 0 83,564 94,875 0 94,875 Rufisque Nord 92,050 0 92,050 93,781 0 93,781 95,257 0 95,257 Rufisque Ouest 58,890 0 58,890 160,219 0 160,219 201,385 0 201,385 Sangalkam 152,113 14,860 166,973 638,517 21,850 660,367 1,306,238 28,255 1,334,493 Rufisque Yenne-Sur-Mer 102,598 56 102,654 327,882 80 327,962 689,594 102 689,696 Sub-total 475,777 14,916 490,693 1,303,963 21,930 1,325,893 2,387,349 28,357 2,415,706 Thiès Region 42,794 26,006 68,800 123,653 38,170 161,823 270,828 49,343 320,171 Diass 30,541 8,459 39,000 99,252 12,417 111,669 224,819 16,052 240,871
ur Sindia 4,101 1,799 5,900 6,600 2,640 9,240 10,800 3,414 14,214 Mbo Sub-total 34,642 10,258 44,900 105,852 15,057 120,909 235,619 19,466 255,085
Keur s
è 8,152 15,748 23,900 17,801 23,113 40,914 35,209 29,877 65,086 Thi Moussa Total of Study Area 3,128,999 76,997 3,205,996 4,588,700 116,300 4,705,000 5,928,500 155,500 6,084,000 Source: JICA Study Team Note: UPA: Urban Promotion Area and UCA: Urban Control Area
Table 6.5.8 Estimated Population Growth Rate by Administrative Unit Administrative Unit Growth Rate Administrative Unit Growth Rate (%/year) (%/year) 2015~ 2025~ 2015~ 2025~ 2025 2035 2025 2035 Dakar Region 3.13 2.41 Pikine Djidah Thiaroye Kaw 0.02 0.00 Dakar Biscuiterie 0.28 0.06 Guinaw Rail Nord 0.25 0.05 Cambérène 0.26 0.05 Guinaw Rail Sud 1.37 0.23 Dakar Plateau 0.59 0.12 Keur Massar 3.17 1.66 Dieuppeul Derklé 1.58 0.30 Malika 1.85 0.41 Fann-PointE-Amitié 5.58 0.81 Mbao 6.00 0.66 Grand Dakar 0.02 0.00 Pikine Est 0.00 0.00 Grand Yoff 0.23 0.05 Pikine Nord 0.13 0.02 Gueule Tapée, Fass-Colobane 0.93 0.18 Pikine Ouest 0.67 0.04 Hann-Bel Air 3.06 0.52 Thiaroye gare 1.03 0.18 HLM 2.51 0.44 Thiaroye Sur Mer 3.36 0.49 Médina 0.47 0.10 Tivaoune Diaksao 0.50 0.09 Mermoz Sacré-Coeur 10.51 1.17 Yeumbeul Nord 0.15 0.03 Ngor 5.88 0.84 Yeumbeul Sud 0.05 0.01 Ouakam 2.07 0.38 Sub-total 1.75 0.53 Parcelles Assainies 0.01 0.00 Rufisque Rufisque Est 1.47 1.28 Patte d'Oie 1.53 0.29 Rufisque Nord 0.16 0.16 Sicap Liberté 2.13 0.39 Rufisque Ouest 8.70 2.31 Yoff 4.66 0.72 Sangalkam 12.14 7.29 Sub-total 1.87 0.34 Yenne-Sur-Mer 10.16 7.72 Guédiaw Golf Sud 0.98 0.17 Sub-total 8.64 6.18 aye Medina Gounass 0.00 0.00 Thiès Region 7.39 7.06 Ndiareme Limamoulaye 0.00 0.00 Mbour Diass 9.16 7.99 Sam Notaire 0.23 0.04 Sindia 3.81 4.40 Wakhinane Nimzatt 0.02 0.00 Sub-total 8.61 7.75 Sub-total 0.34 0.06 Thiès Keur Moussa 4.58 4.75 Pikine Daliford 4.61 0.63 Total of Study Area 3.25 2.60 Diamaguene Sicap Mbao 0.28 0.05 Source: JICA Study Team Note: UPA: Urban Promotion Area and UCA: Urban Control Area
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6.5.4 Distribution of Social Public Facility
Distribution of main social public facilities is examined to meet requirements for the estimated population distribution in 2035. The main social public facilities comprise higher education, hospital and sport complex facilities to serve demand at the city level and the department level. This examination aims to show the expected layout of the amenity facilities in line with the proposed land use. The exact limits of each facility should be delineated at the implementation stage.
(1) Hospitals According to the annual statistics in 2013 prepared by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, there are 15 hospitals accommodating 1,904 beds in the Study Area. The existing hospitals occupy a land area of 115 ha. The number of beds per 1,000 persons is estimated at 0.59 in 2013. While this level is higher than 0.4 as per the national average of Ivory Coast, for example, it is lower than the 5.0 of OECD countries and the 4.1 of non-OECD countries, including such newly industrializing Source: ANSD for existing hospital JICA Project Team for new hospital countries as Brazil, China, India, Figure 6.5.8 Indicative Layout of Hospitals Indonesia, etc. The number of beds per 1,000 persons in the Study Area is assumed to reach 1.15 by 2035 on the basis that the size of the medical service will double as a result of the estimated population increase. This increase will result in the number of beds reaching 7,000 in 2035. Table 6.5.9 shows the estimated numbers of beds and the land requirements of hospitals in each department. CBDs are the candidate locations for hospitals, as shown in Figure 6.5.8, in consideration of good accessibility and availability of other public services.
Table 6.5.9 Estimated Number of Beds and Land Requirement for Hospital Existing Department Area Population Number of Beds Beds per 1,000 Hospital
(location) (ha) 2013 2025 2035 2013 2025 2035 2013 2025 2035
Dakar 6 82 1,146 1,431 1,481 1,265 1,217 1,708 1.10 1.10 1.15 Pikine 2 17 1,171 344 346 0 292 397 0.00 0.85 1.15 Guédiawaye 3 12 330 1,443 1,521 0 1,226 1,749 0.00 0.85 1.15 Rufisque 4 5 491 1,326 2,416 639 1,127 2,778 1.30 0.85 1.15 Mbour 0 0 45 121 255 0 103 293 0.00 0.85 1.15 Thiès 0 0 24 41 65 0 35 75 0.00 0.86 1.15 Total 15 115 3,206 4,705 6,084 1,904 4,000 7,000 0.59 0.85 1.15 Source: 1) Annual Statistics 2013, Ministry of Health and Social Welfare: Number of beds and hospitals 2) JICA Study Team: Projection of required number of beds
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(2) Higher Education The existing higher education facilities are concentrated in Dakar Department. As economic development progresses, opportunities to attend higher education will increase. It is assumed that the number of students will increase by 2.5 times by 2035, at the same pace as the GRDP per capita growth. To meet the education demand, the second Dakar University will be put into operation in Diamniadio urban Source: JICA Study Team pole. In line with the Master Plan Figure 6.5.9 Indicative Layout of Higher Education for the Territorial Development of Facilities the Dakar-Thiès-Mbour Area, new vocational centers are to be located in Daga Kholpa and Sangalkam, as shown in Figure 6.5.9. Those are the main higher education facilities proposed in the existing plans. In addition, small- to medium-sized facilities will also be opened in CBDs and roadside development areas.
(3) Sports Complex There are three national stadiums in the Study Area, as listed below.
Léopold Sédar Senghor stadium: 60,000 seats, Demba Diop stadium: 15,000 seats, and Iba Mar Diop stadium: 5,000 seats. Demba Diop stadium is used for national football games, wrestling games and basketball games. Léopold Sédar Senghor is a unique stadium to convene an international football match hosted by the FIFA.
All three stadiums are located in Source: JICA Study Team Dakar Department. Figure 6.5.10 Indicative Layout of Sport Complex As economic development progresses in the Study Area, the ways of spending leisure time will be diversified. Fully-equipped sport facilities will be increasingly required to meet the diversified needs of people for leisure time. The Senegalese government expects to have a national gymnasium capable of providing adequate spaces for basketball, a national Olympic swimming pool and a national stadium. New sport complexes comprising sport facilities are proposed in Diamniadio and Daga Kholpa, as shown in Figure 6.5.10. The sport facilities in Daga Kholpa are placed in public park areas, avoiding the flood prone areas.
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