Ploughshares Monitor SPRING 2018 | VOLUME 39

Home , 2017 Nobel Peace Prize

Saudi Arabia Changing nature of war Nobel Peace Lecture Our 2018 plan A weapons deal Forced displacement a tactic Beatrice Fihn and What Ploughshares staff no matter what of modern warfare Setsuko Thurlow are doing in this year

The Ploughshares Monitor SPRING 2018 | VOLUME 39 | ISSUE 1

WHEN TECHNOLOGY DISCRIMINATES

Project Ploughshares is an operating division of The Canadian Council of Churches “and they shall beat their swords into ploughshares, and spears into pruning hooks; nation shall not lift up sword against nation; neither shall they learn Contents war any more.” Isaiah 2:4 The Ploughshares Monitor Volume 39 | Issue 1 Spring 2018 PROJECT PLOUGHSHARES STAFF Cesar Jaramillo Executive Director Debbie Hughes Matthew Pupic Tasneem Jamal Maria Skinner Branka Marijan Wendy Stocker From the Director’s desk Sonal Marwah Barbara Wagner 3 An arms deal no matter what. Jessica West by Cesar Jaramillo The Ploughshares Monitor is the quarterly journal of Project Ploughshares, an operating division of The Canadian Council of Churches. Ploughshares works with churches, nongovernmental organizations, and cover story governments, in Canada and abroad, to advance Algorithms are not impartial policies and actions that prevent war and armed New technology may be reinforcing old biases. violence and build peace. Project Ploughshares 5 is affiliated with the KCU Centre for Peace by Branka Marijan Advancement, Conrad Grebel University College, University of Waterloo.

Office address: Project Ploughshares 140 Westmount Road North Our 2018 plan Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3G6 Canada What we at Project Ploughshares are doing this year. 519-888-6541, fax: 519-888-0018 8 [email protected]; www.ploughshares.ca by Ploughshares staff Project Ploughshares gratefully acknowledges the ongoing financial support of the many individuals, national churches and church agencies, local congregations, religious orders, and organizations across Canada that ensure The changing nature of war that the work of Project Ploughshares continues. Forced displacement is a tactic in modern warfare. 16 by Sonal Marwah We are particularly grateful to The Simons Foundation Canada in Vancouver for its generous support.

All donors of $50 or more receive Nobel Peace Prize Lecture 2017 a complimentary subscription The drive to ban nuclear weapons to The Ploughshares Monitor. Annual 20 subscription rates for libraries and institutions by Beatrice Fihn and Setsuko Thurlow are: $35 in Canada, $45 (U.S.) in the United States, $50 (U.S.) internationally. Single copies are $5 plus shipping.

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The Ploughshares Monitor is indexed in the Canadian Periodical Index. COVER: A widely used facial recognition system uses data that is more than 75 per cent male and 80 per cent white. In her research, Joy Buolamwini finds that facial recognition software achieves 99 per cent accuracy if the Printed at Waterloo Printing, Waterloo, Ontario. subject is a white man, but only 35 per cent accuracy if the subject is a woman with darker skin. Article on page 5. Printed with vegetable inks on paper Image designed by ddraw/Freepik with recycled content.

Funded by the Government The Ploughshares Monitor, the quarterly publication of Project Ploughshares, of Canada is available online at www.ploughshares.ca. From the Director’s desk: Canada and Saudi Arabia: An arms deal no matter what

By Cesar Jaramillo

even months after disturbing footage appeared to show Can- Sadian-made armoured vehicles being used against civilians in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, Global Affairs Canada announced the results of the investigation it launched into the alleged abuses. Addressing the House Foreign Affairs Committee in February, Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland announced that there was “no conclusive evidence” that Canadian equipment had been misused. Freeland called the probe “full and thorough.” An investigation into such allega- tions would be extremely difficult in the remote area in which the abuses reportedly took place. So, how did investigators gain sufficient informa- “Officials at Global Affairs Canada found no conclusive evidence that Canadian-made vehicles were tion? Full transparency around this used in human-rights violations,” said Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland. crucial probe would certainly serve the public interest. exports of military goods. used against Saudi civilians, officials More to the point, the key cri- Reasonable risk of misuse alone at Global Affairs Canada merely terion in assessing the likelihood should inform a credible assessment raised doubts that those vehicles of misuse of military exports is of the likelihood that Canadian were Canadian. But videos made in “reasonable risk,” not “conclusive arms exports might be involved in 2016 and 2017 unequivocally estab- evidence.” The government’s insist- human rights violations—and this lish reasonable risk of misuse. They ence on using conclusive evidence risk has long been displayed. Yet document the proclivity of the Saudi of misuse as the key benchmark is the Canadian government remains regime to use force—specifically, a perversion of both domestic and determined to provide Saudi Arabia armoured vehicles—against civilians. international arms control standards. with the Canadian-made armoured And there is no question that the ve- The word “evidence” does not ap- vehicles at the centre of a $15-billion hicles in the most recent video were pear in either the international Arms arms deal. Canadian-made. Trade Treaty that Canada will soon When damning videos from 2016 In the seven months between the join or in Canada’s annual report on first showed armoured vehicles being launch of the investigation and the

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 3 FROM THE DIRECTOR’S DESK

A still from a video obtained by Radio Canada International (RCI) shows a column of light armoured vehicles like those produced by General Dynamics Land Systems Canada being deployed by Saudi forces in a crackdown against Shia militants in the kingdom’s Eastern Province. RCI could not independently verify the authenticity of the video.

announcement, the number of chol- in 2016, then-Foreign Affairs Min- review of Saudi Arabia points to “a era cases in Yemen quadrupled to ister Stéphane Dion said about the significant increase in the number of more than one million. Malnutrition, arms deal: “What is done is done and executions, restrictions on universal failing sanitation systems, and the the contract is not something that rights, such as freedom of expres- collapse of critical infrastructure—all we’ll revisit.” sion, association and belief, lack of related to the Saudi-led military inter- What kind of message is Canada due process and fair trial rights.” De- vention in Yemen—have exacerbated sending to Saudi Arabia with its spite this awareness and despite legal the health crisis. repeated emphasis on honouring challenges, civil society opposition, As recently as this past Janu- existing contracts? That the deal will and repeated polls in which Can- ary, there were reports of multiple remain in force, “no matter what”? adians favour the protection of hu- Light Armoured Vehicles “shot up In fact, under international law, the man rights over job creation, Ottawa pretty badly” on the Saudi-Yemen fulfilment of arms contracts cannot remains undeterred in preserving the border. Evidently, LAVs have been be guaranteed, as they are contingent arms deal with Saudi Arabia. deployed and are involved in com- upon changing circumstances, in- Canada promotes a feminist inter- bat operations. A UN panel has also cluding risk levels and the actual end national assistance policy and claims denounced the “widespread and sys- use of the exports. to support a rules-based multilateral tematic targeting of civilian targets” Article 7 of the Arms Trade order. At the same time, it is arming in Yemen by the Saudi-led coalition. Treaty calls on states parties to one of the world’s worst oppressors And there is a term for this: war reassess existing export permit au- of women and blatantly contraven- crimes. thorizations in light of new, relevant ing the norms set out in the inter- Yet Ottawa still refuses to acknow- information. This is especially pertin- national Arms Trade Treaty. How ledge the reasonable risk of misuse ent with contracts that are executed can a state promote and protect hu- of Canadian military exports. On the over a number of years, as is the case man rights while providing arms to contrary, it takes every opportunity with the Saudi arms deal. Given the one of the most repressive regimes to reiterate its intention to proceed Saudi regime’s consistent disregard on Earth? with the controversial arms contract, for human rights, reports relevant As Canada prepares to join the including Minister Freeland’s recent to this particular arms deal can be Arms Trade Treaty, it appears that appearance before the House For- expected to emerge with troubling the government’s commitment to eign Affairs Committee. regularity. more stringent, transparent military It bears noting that her position is The Canadian government is export controls is not applicable to aligned with that of her predecessor. fully aware of the abysmal Saudi the Saudi deal. Will rigour inform Following the summary executions human rights record. Global Affairs subsequent contracts? The record is of 47 prisoners by the Saudi regime Canada’s most recent human rights certainly not promising. □

4 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 Algorithms are not impartial

As new technology is shaped by old biases, stereotypes, and prejudices, users must remain vigilant

By Branka Marijan

oy Buolamwini, now a PhD stu- In Buolamwini’s case, the software’s dent at MIT’s Center for Civic dataset was predominantly white and male. Media, was an undergraduate This is not uncommon. A widely used when she first encountered a facial recognition system uses data that problem with facial recognition is more than 75 per cent male and 80 per Jsoftware. She was trying to teach a robot cent white (Lohr 2018). In her research, to play peek-a-boo, but the robot did not Buolamwini finds that facial recognition seem to recognize her (Couch 2017). The software achieves 99 per cent accuracy if robot’s facial recognition software seemed the subject is a white man, but only 35 per to detect her colleagues, but not her. Buol- cent accuracy if the subject is a woman amwini needed the help of a roommate to with darker skin. finish her assignment (Buolamwini 2016). Facial recognition software illustrates only some of the possible problems of Discriminatory data biased machine learning systems. A system As a graduate student several years later, using a historical dataset, in which certain Buolamwini, who is African-American, en- groups were excluded or particularly tar- countered the problem again. She decided geted, will replicate these biases. Biases to test the software by putting on a white can be compounded if the teams doing mask. Then the software recognized her. the coding are not diverse and fail to Boulamwini realized that she was the vic- consider how the software could be used tim of algorithmic bias. The math-based against different members of society. process or set of rules (algorithm) used Consider this: police in the United in this machine-learning system reflected States are making more use of facial rec- implicit human values. ognition software that was originally used By then, facial recognition technology by the military in war zones and to combat was entering the mainstream (Lohr 2018) terrorism abroad. and Buolamwini knew that she had to speak out. She has been at the forefront Why bias matters of discussions on how algorithms can Experts are telling us that the data and lead to discriminatory practices and why mathematical models on which innovative the data used in new technologies must be and disruptive technologies are based are transparent. not neutral, but are shaped by the views of

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 5 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

their creators. Included in these views are ish the Poor, Virginia Eubanks traces how some very old prejudices, stereotypes, and new algorithms are further embedding structural inequalities. biases about the poor and putting these As mathematician Cathy O’Neil says in vulnerable populations in an ever more her new book, Weapons of Math Destruc- precarious position. The political and tion, we trust mathematical models too socioeconomic forces long at play are re- much and are afraid to question the math inforced by new technologies. because we believe we lack the requisite expertise (Chalabi 2016). O’Neil notes that The effects on our security some of the algorithms impacting people’s Bias in justice, military, and security appli- lives are secret and the interests they re- cations is particularly worrisome. flect are hidden. She urges everyone to Some U.S. judges use a new system to question how decisions are made and the help them determine if parole should be ways in which they impact certain popula- granted. Already disadvantaged people are tions. being given longer sentences because an Prof. Laura Forlano of the Illinois algorithm indicates that they have a higher Institute of Technology points out that chance of reoffending. But an investiga- algorithms are not impartial. “Rather, al- tion into this system revealed that it may gorithms are always the product of social, be biased against minorities (Knight 2017). technical, and political decisions, negotia- Similarly, predictive policing that uses al- tions and tradeoffs that occur throughout gorithms to determine where and when their development and implementation. certain criminal activity will occur has And, this is where biases, values, and dis- been seen to be racist. crimination disappear into the black box Algorithms and machine learning ap- behind the computational curtain” (For- peal to developers of new military tech- Joy Buolamwini gives a lano 2018). nologies and weapons. Based on neutral TED talk on the bias of algorithms. In her 2018 book, Automating Inequality: and impartial data, autonomous weapons Photograph TED How High-Tech Tools Profile, Police, and Pun- systems, they claim, will be more respon-

6 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

sible and accountable than human soldiers. bias and held accountable. Yes, it can be The argument is that these systems, coded difficult for all parties to understand how to respect international humanitarian law certain algorithms work and how machine and protect non-combatants, will improve learning systems make certain determina- security for civilians. But no developer tions. But ignorance cannot be used as an should be allowed to hide behind sup- excuse—the fallout from a lack of con- posedly objective models, even though sideration could be too great. few companies and governments appear Much can be done to ensure that to be willing to deal with algorithmic bias checks are in place to prevent bias or a (Knight 2017). badly designed algorithm from being used We also can’t simply adopt the view to make decisions and determinations that of Google AI chief John Giannandrea, impact people’s lives. As O’Neil points who has suggested that algorithmic bias out, all models can be interrogated for ac- and not killer robots should be of great- curacy. Just as we audit and evaluate other est concern to the public (Knight 2017). products and systems, we must be able to Branka Marijan We know that militaries are interested in do the same with emerging technologies. is a Program Officer with developing autonomous systems, and we Civil society organizations must pay Project have no reason to believe that they are closer attention to AI use in their re- Ploughshares. dedicated to removing bias. As a society, spective fields. Ordinary citizens need to we can’t know precisely how algorithmic be more informed about how decisions bias will be encoded in new weapons sys- that impact their lives are being made. [email protected] tems, but we can be reasonably certain They should have the right to demand that that bias will be present. businesses be more transparent about the types of data and algorithms that they use. How to get algorithmic accountability And, as security and military uses of Some people are pressing for algorithmic artificial intelligence increase, all of us accountability. Buolamwini began the Al- will need to become even more vigilant— gorithmic Justice League to involve the about the uses of AI and machine learning tech community and engaged citizens in and about the existence of bias in new identifying bias in different technologies. technology applications. Some governments are starting to con- There is still much we can and must do sider the implications of the latest tech. to counter bias, and to regulate and con- The Canadian government has conducted trol the new technology. In cases involving several consultations on using AI in gov- weapons systems, a minimal requirement ernance. should be that humans control critical de- More must be done. cisions, such as the decision to kill. This is Tech companies need to be attuned to a clear moral and ethical imperative. □

References

Buolamwini, Joy. 2016. How I’m fighting bias in algorithms. TED Talk, November. Chalabi, Mona. 2016. Weapons of Math Destruction: Cathy O’Neil adds up the damage of algorithms. The Guardian, October 27. Couch, Christina. 2017. Ghosts in the Machine. PBS, October 25. Eubanks, Virginia. 2018. Automating Inequality: How High-Tech Tools Profile, Police, and Punish the Poor. St. Martin’s Press. Forlano, Laura. 2018. Invisible algorithms, invisible politics. Public Books, February 1. Knight, Will. 2017. Google’s AI chief says forget Elon Musk’s killer robots, and worry about bias in AI systems instead. MIT Technology Review, October 3. Lohr, Steve. 2018. Facial recognition is accurate, if you’re a white guy. The New York Times, February 9.

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 7 Our 2018 plan

Last year was remarkably active for virtually all

Project Ploughshares program areas—and 2018 is

turning out to be at least as busy. From unscrupulous

arms transfers that fuel human rights violations to

troubling forced migration patterns that continue to

test the international community’s ability to respond,

from efforts to proactively regulate the development

and deployment of autonomous weapons systems

to the transformation of outer space from peaceful

sanctuary to an arena for military confrontation, we have a lot of ground to cover.

On each of these issues, Project Ploughshares is continuing to conduct rigorous research,

provide fact-based analysis and commentary, engage stakeholders in and out of government,

propose policy alternatives, and communicate our findings to our constituencies and the

general public. A key concern will be the direction of Canadian defence and foreign policy.

We will be monitoring Canada’s involvement in multilateral arms control, disarmament, and

peacebuilding efforts, as well as Ottawa’s role in key multilateral processes. Here’s some of

what we—and you, our readers—are exploring this year.

8 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 PLOUGHSHARES 2018

Our 2018 plan Nuclear disarmament

The global nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation regime was dramatically altered last year with the adoption of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The treaty, which was supported by a large majority of the international community and strongly championed by civil society, fills a legal void in which nuclear weapons were the only cat- egory of weapons of mass destruction not explicitly prohibited under international law. The Nobel Peace Prize awarded to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons has increased the momentum of the nuclear ban treaty and has legitimized its contribution to the pursuit of nuclear abolition in a humanitarian framework. At the same time, nuclear security tensions have reached nearly unprecedented heights, with observers warning of the real likelihood that the high-stakes stalemate over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program could result in nuclear conflict. Although all nuclear-armed states and many of their allies—including Canada—boy- cotted treaty negotiations, they are certain to face mounting pressure from treaty support- ers at various 2018 forums. Key among them: From April 23-May 4, states parties to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) will convene in Geneva for the second Preparatory Committee of the 2020 NPT Review Confer- ence. The UN will host a High-Level conference on nuclear disarmament from May 14-16, aim- ing to make progress on effective measures for nuclear risk reduction and disarmament. In October, the UN General Assembly First Committee on disarmament and international security will hold sessions dealing with a host of disarmament and arms control matters, including nuclear disarmament. Project Ploughshares will continue to liaise with partners in Canada and abroad on col- laborative efforts to advance nuclear disarmament and reduce nuclear weapons threats.To this end, we will produce commentary and analysis on nuclear disarmament processes and developments throughout the year.

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 9 PLOUGHSHARES 2018

Conventional weapons controls

The international Arms Trade Treaty, adopted in December 2014, has created heightened expectations of rigour and transparency around the global trade in conventional weapons. Al- though it has been widely welcomed as a necessary and long-overdue multilateral instrument to better regulate arms transfers, questions of strong treaty implementation will feature promin- ently in 2018. Today, there is no more egregious violation of its spirit, objectives, and specific provisions than arms transfers to Saudi Arabia—which involve several Western arms manufacturers, including Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Such transfers have served to exacer- bate the armed conflict and humanitarian crisis in neighbouring Yemen, enable the violation of human rights of Saudi and Yemeni civilians, and sustain the repressive Saudi regime. Domestic and international pressure to stop such exports has already yielded concrete results. Early this year, the German government halted military exports to Saudi Arabia and other parties to the Yemen conflict. The key multilateral forum to address conventional weapons controls this year will the fourth Conference of States Parties (CSP) to the Arms Trade Treaty in Japan from August 20-24. Project Ploughshares will be part of the international civil society delegation and will liaise with government and NGO representatives to push for effective compliance with the objectives and specific provisions of the ATT. Although Canada has been conspicuously absent from ATT discussions, the Can- adian government is currently MADE IN CANADA working on the legislation re- quired to allow Canada to join the treaty. Canada was absent from the first CSP, attended the second and third as an ob- server state, and might attend the Tokyo conference as a full- fledged ATT state party. Project Ploughshares will continue to engage in regular dialogue and collaboration with Global Affairs Canada—including the export controls division and the office of the Minister of Foreign Affairs—on the process leading to Canada’s accession to the Treaty.

10 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 PLOUGHSHARES 2018

Forced migration and refugees

This year, UN member states are set to agree on the Global Compact on Refugees. The world will also mark the 20th anniversary of the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. Forced displacement seems to be a core security concern of the international community. And yet the number of displaced people continues to grow. Canada is geographically isolated from refugee-producing countries and has historically been able to control the number and type of refugees it resettles. But since U.S. President Trump began targeting refugees, Muslims, and Central Americans living in the United States, many more refugee claimants have irregularly crossed the border into Canada. These claimants are forced to avoid border crossings because of the Safe Third Country Agreement (STCA) between Canada and the United States. Under the STCA, persons who present themselves at a Canada-United States border point to make a refugee claim in Canada are, with limited exceptions, denied access to the Canadian refugee system and immediately returned to the United States, where they risk detention and deportation. The STCA reflects a global trend in which countries seek to prevent civilians from claiming asylum and force refugees to go back to their country of origin, even when conditions there are unsafe. As an operating division of The Canadian Council of Churches, Project Ploughshares, along with Am- nesty International and the Canadian Council for Refugees, is challenging the notion that the United States is a “safe third country” in federal court. This year Ploughshares is continuing to work on the legal challenge on the STCA, while seeking to network with likeminded organizations and individuals on both sides of the Canada-United States border. And we continue to monitor the fate of refugees and migrants in the Mediterranean, as we work with international allies on the complex problems that occur when weapons and war force civilians from their homes.

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 11 PLOUGHSHARES 2018

Women, peace, and security

Albert González Farran/UN

Armed violence affects women, men, boys, and girls in different ways.Small arms and light weapons are frequently used in acts of gender-based violence, which disproportionately affect women and girls. Armed drones more often target men. Social relations and protection systems are destabilized by armed conflicts and gender roles shift. The Canadian government’s feminist approach seeks to address gender equality and empowers women and girls to bring about sustainable peace and development for everyone. The House of Commons Standing Com- mittee on Foreign Affairs and International Development has recommended that “the Government of Canada should make women, peace and security a priority of its foreign policy agenda.” Last November, Canada launched its second National Action Plan (NAP) for the period 2017-2022. The government uses the NAP to implement United Nations Security Council Resolutions on Women, Peace and Sec- urity (WPS). The plan recognizes the critical roles of women and girls in conflict prevention, peacemaking, and post-conflict situations in fragile and conflict-affected states. Women, Peace and Security Network - Canada has advocated that peacebuilding efforts “should be based on an understanding of the inter-linkages between armed conflict and gender inequality and support efforts to tackle persistent and institutionalized gender inequalities.” Canada’s Feminist Foreign Policy includes all genders and provides a framework for a whole-of-government approach to implement the WPS agenda. This approach cuts across foreign, defence, and development assistance policies. Implementing the new feminist vision requires a dedicated budget and additional resources. Project Ploughshares will encourage the Canadian government to make all necessary resources available to effectively implement its vision and approach. We will continue to explore the breadth and effectiveness of this new policy lens. We will network in Canada and around the world with organizations that seek to better understand the role of gender in preventing armed conflict. And we will use that knowledge to pursue our overarch- ing goal of a lasting and just peace for all.

12 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 PLOUGHSHARES 2018

Preserving outer space as a peaceful domain

As far as we know, outer space is a domain of human activity free of weapons. But it is not a sanctuary and has long been used as a critical support for terrestrial military operations. Now, outer space as a peaceful domain is under serious threat. The United States recently released its 2018 National Security Strategy (NSS), Na- tional Defense Strategy (NDS), and Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which together emphasize military dominance and pre-eminence in the face of long-term strategic competition with Russia and China, and growing security challenges from North Korea and Iran. Space—envisioned as a high-ground and a warfighting domain—is central to this vision. None of these strategies directly advocates the deployment of weapons in space. Indeed, the NPR calls for “deterring and if necessary overcoming attempts to extend conflict into space.” However, the NSS commits the United States to developing what is known as boost-phase missile defence. This will involve space. And in fact, the 2018 U.S. National Defense Authorization Act includes instructions to proceed with a plan for a space-based ballistic missile intercept layer for boost-phase missile defence, under certain conditions. Such a move would be incredibly destabilizing. It would open the door for the deployment of weapons in outer space, in flagrant violation of a longstanding norm. Although the NSS declares that “enhanced missile defense is not intended to undermine strategic stability or disrupt longstanding strategic relationships with Rus- sia or China,” it will. More than this, it could spark an arms race in outer space. The coming year will thus prove critical to efforts to prevent the weaponization of space. In the 2017 National Defence Strategy, Canada declared yet again our non-par- ticipation in the U.S. ballistic missile defence program. But some voices are urging the government to reconsider. Drawing on our work on the Space Security Index project, Project Ploughshares will provide a clear and consistent view of the limitations of such weapon systems, as well as their strategic implications and long-term damage to peace and security in outer space.

Canadian Space Agency

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 13 PLOUGHSHARES 2018

Increased focus on autonomous weapons, but UN process too slow

Discussions on lethal autonomous weapons systems, or killer robots, will be held this year at the United Nations in Geneva, Switz- erland. The Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) will meet at the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons on April 9-13 and August 27-31. The Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, to which Project Plough- shares belongs, considers 2017 a “lost year” for diplomatic efforts on autonomous weapons, with talks scheduled for April postponed until August and then cancelled. The GGE did finally meet for a week in November, with 91 countries in attendance. So far, the UN discussions have been welcomed, but the process has been criticized as too slow. With no ambitious new mandate for 2018, it appears that most countries prefer an incremental process. Still, 22 states are now calling for a ban and leading scientists and robotics experts are demanding action. In August 2017, a letter by leading robotics experts from 26 countries, including Canada, called for action on autonomous weapons. Ahead of the November GGE meetings, 200 leading Canadian AI and robotics experts called for a ban in an open letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The November release of the video Slaughterbots, a short fictional film by AI expert Stuart Russell, was widely covered by global media. © DARPA With media coverage on artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics ramping up, the attention paid by analysts and ordinary citizens will surely increase. Project Ploughshares will attend the GGE meetings in April and will continue to participate in the UN process.

14 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 PLOUGHSHARES 2018

Armed conflict trends point to devastating impact on civilians Stuart Price/UN

The number of civilian deaths from explosive weapons—15,000—was 42 per cent higher in 2017 than in the previous year. The use of these weapons continues to hinder reconstruction efforts in former combat zones and prevent the return of refugees. These trends are, unfortu- nately, likely to continue wherever combat has been urbanized and civilians live in close proxim- ity to military targets. The United States has increased the number and expanse of air and drone strikes in Iraq, Syria, and Somalia. In Yemen, airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition have also increased, further exacerbating the catastrophe for civilians. The conflict in Yemen will continue to be one of the most brutal in 2018. The Saudi-led bomb- ing campaign has destroyed critical civilian infrastructure and the livelihoods of much of the population; the resulting malnutrition and disease have killed thousands. According to UNICEF, some 63,000 Yemeni children died in 2016 from preventable causes, most linked to malnutrition. The 2017 cholera outbreak affected more than a million people, while approximately seven million Yemenis are on the brink of starvation. Then, in late 2017, the Saudi-led coalition blocked access to Yemeni ports, preventing necessary supplies from reaching the interior. While the international community has expressed outrage, the situation remains dire. Coun- tries, including Germany, have banned arms exports to all countries involved in the conflict in Yemen. Arms deals with Saudi Arabia by countries such as the United Kingdom, France, the United States, and Canada are under increasing international scrutiny. Millions of people in conflict-wracked Syria, South Sudan, and Somalia face famine and imminent starvation. The UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food, Hilal Elver, noted that more people die from famine and diseases brought on by conditions of armed conflict than in direct combat. Elver stated that the promotion of famine can be a war crime and should be prosecuted at the International Criminal Court. As access to food, medicine, and humanitarian aid for civilians continues to be restricted, the international community must be motivated to prosecute those responsible. Over the coming year, Project Ploughshares will continue to track trends in armed conflict and to update the annual Armed Conflicts Report. This report will be made available at UN meetings and shared with interested individuals. And Ploughshares will continue to advocate that all discussions on disarmament put people first.

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 15 The changing nature of war, forced displacement, and global disarmament

Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Afghanistan, and South Sudan accounted for 55 per cent of all refugees

By Sonal Marwah

cademics and research- example, the ongoing Muslim Rohingya ers have noted a marked humanitarian crisis is the result of decades change in the nature of of displacement tactics used by Myanmar’s wars since the 1990s; inter- military leaders. state or international wars At the end of 2016, 65.6 million people haveA largely been replaced by intrastate or were forcibly displaced (UNHCR 2017). civil wars. Intrastate wars are often more According to the Stockholm International intense and drag on for years—even dec- Peace Research Institute (2017), “the clear ades. They involve a multiplicity of actors, majority of these displacement crises were including ever-evolving coalitions and generated primarily by armed conflicts.” splintering of non-state armed groups or Ongoing conflicts in Syria, Afghanistan, irregular combatants with many different and South Sudan accounted for 55 per goals. cent of all refugees. In modern intrastate wars, the forcible displacement of civilians is not only a Peace and post-conflict resolution by-product of conflict, but a tactic of war. Since 1987, Project Ploughshares has The flight of war-affected populations reported annually on armed conflicts from their homes is frequently orchestrat- through its Armed Conflicts Report (ACR). ed, directed, and sustained by armed actors Such an accumulation of data allows for (Lichtenheld 2014). A common technique an in-depth analysis of different armed is forcible removal of those with different conflicts and their impacts. identities and opinions or the expulsion of Examining armed conflicts involves “the other,” often defined in terms of eth- the study of not only the different stages nicity, religion, tribal membership, or polit- of conflict, but the nature of the peace. ical affiliation (Sassen 2018). Such strategic Post-conflict societies face many difficult displacement is also commonly used by tasks, including disarmament, demobiliza- undemocratic states in state-building. For tion, and reintegration of ex-combatants;

16 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 FORCED DISPLACEMENT

Table 1: Top sources of refugees in 2016

1. Syria 2. Afghanistan 3. South Sudan 4. Somalia 5. Sudan 6. Democratic Republic of Congo 7. Central African Republic 8. Myanmar 9. Eritrea 10. Burundi

UNHCR 2017, p. 17

reconstruction of destroyed physical infra- According to the UNHCR (2017), by structure and institutions; and addressing the end of 2016, 552,200 global refugees human rights violations. had returned to their homes—a very small An important indicator of true peace percentage of the total displaced popula- is the successful reintegration of refugee tion of 65.6 million. Civilians did not re- returnees. Consider, for example, the case turn home because conditions there were of Colombia, where a peace agreement not conducive to the resumption of a safe between the Colombian government and and healthy civilian life. the leftist FARC guerrillas was signed in Sonal Marwah November 2016. Just before the ultimate The role of weapons is a Program agreement was reached, the director of Irresponsible arms deals and transfers Officer with the government agency responsible for directly and indirectly threaten women, Project Ploughshares. assisting war victims acknowledged that men, girls, and boys. Weapons are used to “for the displaced and others who bear the kill and maim civilians, who live under the war’s worst scars, the peace deal is a begin- constant threat of armed repression and ning, not an end” (Miroff 2016). Although are often forced to flee their homes. Read- [email protected] the rate of displacement has decreased ily available arms assist repressive and au- since the signing of the peace agreement, thoritarian governments and militaries in violence continues to uproot civilians in terrorizing and abusing their own citizens. Colombia and the safe return of internally Selling arms to such governments raises displaced persons (IDPs) has proven to questions about the complicity of the ex- be a complex challenge. Amnesty Inter- porting (generally Western) countries, and national (2018) has documented new cases the extent to which they are accountable of forced displacement in 2018 due to for resulting humanitarian crises. clashes between different armed groups. Project Ploughshares, a long-time ad- Real peace has yet to be achieved for these vocate of disarmament research, has act- civilians. ively worked to promote the Arms Trade

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 17 FORCED DISPLACEMENT

Treaty (ATT) and to support its effective that generate refugees. implementation. The ATT, which came The government’s new feminist inter- into effect in December 2014, aims to national assistance policy constitutes a regulate the international trade in conven- useful point of reference for Ploughshares tional arms, including small arms, battle programming going forward. A gender tanks, attack helicopters, combat aircraft, lens will be relevant when analyzing the missiles, and warships. The ATT seeks to impacts of weapons, military exports, and ensure that “arms transfers will not cause emerging military technologies on civilians or contribute to genocide, crimes against in fragile states and in armed conflict. This humanity, war crimes and other grave analysis will be used to develop recom- human rights violations” (AI et al. 2017). mendations on how to build sustainable Ploughshares and other civil society or- peace and curb the use of arms to better ganizations are closely monitoring the cur- protect affected and displaced civilians. rent Canadian government’s commitment In recent years, we have observed that to join the ATT. states are more focused on preventing civilians from seeking asylum and forcing Looking ahead refugees to go back to their country of Forced displacement is one of the main origin, even when conditions there are security issues currently faced by the inter- unsafe. Project Ploughshares is convinced national community. To better leverage that any long-term solution to the current the Canadian government’s interest in refugee crisis must address the main driv- the refugee crisis, Ploughshares and other ers of forced migration: armed conflict Canadian NGOs benefit from actively and war. Additionally, significant invest- participating in related dialogues and in- ments are needed to support refugees, to novative initiatives taking place around end sexual and gender-based violence, to the world. In this political space, there is control arms, to institute security sector a unique opportunity for Ploughshares to reform, and to establish and support hu- explore more deeply the issues of armed man rights and the rule of law. violence and conflict that are the leading Ploughshares believes that its new pro- drivers of the involuntary uprooting of gram on forced displacement will help civilians. In this context, there is a need to bring the protection of civilians to the to closely analyze new and old arms deals centre of disarmament debates and bring and Canadian military transfers and ex- a human element to studies of armed con- ports, to determine the extent to which flict, as we learn more about the survivors they may have affected armed conflicts of these conflicts.□

References

AI. 2018. Colombia: More than 1,000 people forcibly displaced in just four days. January 24. AI et al. 2017. Bill C-47 and Canadian accession to the Arms Trade Treaty: Civil society concerns and recommendations. Submission by Canadian civil society organizations to the House Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Development, October. Lichtenheld, Adam. 2014. Forced migration as a weapon of war in Iraq and beyond. UN Dispatch, July 1. Miroff, Nick. 2016. Colombia’s war has displaced 7 million. With peace, will they go home? The Washington Post, September 5. Sassen, Saskia. 2018. Welcome to a new kind of war: The rise of endless urban conflict. The Guardian, January 30. SIPRI. 2017. SIPRI Yearbook 2017 out now: Trends in nuclear disarmament, forced displacement and sustaining peace. September 21. UNHCR. 2017. Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2016.

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One response to the changing nature of war: a new program

The changing nature of modern warfare demands a close re-examination of the humanitarian impacts of war and weapons on civilians and human security. So, in 2015, Project Ploughshares introduced a new program on forced migration and refugee issues, focusing in particular on displacement caused by armed conflict.This venture was deemed a critical extension of Project Ploughshares’ mandate to advance policies and strengthen advocacy to prevent war and armed violence and build sustainable peace. The objectives for this new program are: • Research drivers of conflict-induced forced migration to illustrate the intersections of conventional weapons, emerging technologies in warfare, and armed conflicts with the resulting displacement. • Examine durable solutions and programs that draw on Canada’s new feminist international assistance policy (FIAP) for women, men, girls, and boys and the UN’s sustainable development goals, in particular Goal 16: Peace, justice, and strong institutions. • Participate in the humanitarian disarmament community to place considerations of human security, human rights, and the protection of civilians at the centre of dialogue and practice. • Identify evidence-driven policies on which Canada should base its response to global humanitarian and refugee crises, focusing on inclusive and principled governance. • Advocate for the resolution of the wars and armed violence that generate refugees.

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 19 Nobel Peace Prize Lecture 2017 The drive to ban nuclear weapons

On December 10, 2017, Beatrice Fihn and Canadian Setsuko Thurlow accepted the Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN). What follows is an edited version of their remarks when they accepted the award.

Beatrice Fihn world, those who refuse to have their fates bound up in a few lines of launch code. Today, it is a great honour to accept the Today I want to talk of three things: 2017 Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of fear, freedom, and the future. thousands of inspirational people who make up the International Campaign to Fear Abolish Nuclear Weapons. By the very admission of those who Together we have brought democracy possess them, the real utility of nuclear to disarmament and are reshaping inter- weapons is in their ability to provoke fear. national law. When they refer to their “deterrent” ef- At dozens of locations around the fect, proponents of nuclear weapons are world—in missile silos buried in our celebrating fear as a weapon of war. They earth, on submarines navigating through are puffing their chests by declaring their our oceans, and aboard planes flying preparedness to exterminate, in a flash, high in our sky—lie 15,000 objects of countless thousands of human lives. humankind’s destruction. Perhaps it is The risk for nuclear weapons use is the enormity of this fact, perhaps it is the even greater today than at the end of the unimaginable scale of the consequences Cold War. But unlike the Cold War, today that leads many to simply accept this grim we face many more nuclear armed states, reality. To go about our daily lives with no terrorists, and cyber warfare. All of this thought to the instruments of insanity all makes us less safe. around us. Learning to live with these weapons in For it is insanity to allow ourselves to blind acceptance has been our next great be ruled by these weapons. Many critics of mistake. this movement suggest that we are the ir- Fear is rational. The threat is real. We rational ones, the idealists with no ground- have avoided nuclear war not through pru- ing in reality. That nuclear-armed states dent leadership but good fortune. Sooner will never give up their weapons. or later, if we fail to act, our luck will run But we represent the only rational out. choice. We represent those who refuse to Only by being the voice of humanity accept nuclear weapons as a fixture in our can we defeat fear; can we help humanity

20 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 NOBEL PEACE LECTURE

Beatrice Fihn is the Ex- ecutive Director of the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. ICAN

endure. ICAN’s duty is to be that voice. they can just as easily be destroyed by pla- The voice of humanity and humanitarian cing them in a humanitarian context. law; to speak up on behalf of civilians. The future Freedom There are hundreds of organisations that We must reclaim the freedom to not live together as ICAN are making great strides our lives as hostages to imminent annihi- towards that future. There are thousands lation. of tireless campaigners around the world Man—not woman!—made nuclear who work each day to rise to that chal- weapons to control others, but instead lenge. There are millions of people across we are controlled by them. They made the globe who have stood shoulder to us false promises. That by making the shoulder with those campaigners to show consequences of using these weapons so hundreds of millions more that a different unthinkable it would make any conflict un- future is truly possible. palatable. That it would keep us free from Those who say that future is not pos- war. But far from preventing war, these sible need to get out of the way of those weapons brought us to the brink multiple making it a reality. times throughout the Cold War. And in As the culmination of this grassroots this century, these weapons continue to effort, through the action of ordinary escalate us towards war and conflict, in people, this year the hypothetical marched Iraq, in Iran, in Kashmir, in North Korea. forward towards the actual as 122 nations Their existence propels others to join the negotiated and concluded a UN treaty to nuclear race. They don’t keep us safe, they outlaw these weapons of mass destruc- cause conflict. tion. It’s an affront to democracy to be The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nu- ruled by these weapons. But they are just clear Weapons provides the pathway for- weapons. They are just tools. And just as ward at a moment of great global crisis. they were created by geopolitical context, It is a light in a dark time. And more than

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 21 NOBEL PEACE LECTURE

Hiroshima survivor and nuclear disarmament activist Setsuko Thurlow speaks at Project Ploughshares 40th anniversary celebration in 2017. Emilia Zibaei

that, it provides a choice. these horrific weapons around the world. A choice between the two endings: the People from places with long-forgotten end of nuclear weapons or the end of us. names, like Moruroa, Ekker, Semipal- All of us face that choice. And I call on atinsk, Maralinga, Bikini. People whose every nation to join the Treaty on the Pro- lands and seas were irradiated, whose hibition of Nuclear Weapons. bodies were experimented upon, whose To the nations who believe they are cultures were forever disrupted. sheltered under the umbrella of nuclear We were not content to be victims. We weapons, will you be complicit in your refused to wait for an immediate fiery end own destruction and the destruction or the slow poisoning of our world. We of others in your name? To all nations: refused to sit idly in terror as the so-called choose the end of nuclear weapons over great powers took us past nuclear dusk the end of us! This is the choice that the and brought us recklessly close to nucle- Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear ar midnight. We rose up. We shared our Weapons represents. Join this Treaty. stories of survival. We said: humanity and nuclear weapons cannot coexist. Today, I want you to feel in this hall Setsuko Thurlow the presence of all those who perished in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. I want you to Remembering Hiroshima and Nagasaki feel, above and around us, a great cloud of I speak as a member of the family of a quarter-million souls. Each person had a hibakusha—those of us who, by some name. Each person was loved by someone. miraculous chance, survived the atomic Let us ensure that their deaths were not in bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. vain. For more than seven decades, we have I was just 13 years old when the United worked for the total abolition of nuclear States dropped the first atomic bomb on weapons. my city Hiroshima. I still vividly remember We have stood in solidarity with those that morning. At 8:15, I saw a blinding harmed by the production and testing of bluish-white flash from the window. I re-

22 The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 NOBEL PEACE LECTURE

member having the sensation of floating fused to see Hiroshima and Nagasaki as in the air. atrocities, as war crimes. They accepted As I regained consciousness in the si- the propaganda that these were “good lence and darkness, I found myself pinned bombs” that had ended a “just war.” It by the collapsed building. I began to hear was this myth that led to the disastrous my classmates’ faint cries: “Mother, help nuclear arms race—a race that continues me. God, help me.” to this day. Then, suddenly, I felt hands touching Nine nations still threaten to incinerate my left shoulder, and heard a man saying: entire cities, to destroy life on Earth, to “Don’t give up! Keep pushing! I am trying make our beautiful world uninhabitable to free you. See the light coming through for future generations. The development that opening? Crawl towards it as quickly of nuclear weapons signifies not a coun- as you can.” As I crawled out, the ruins try’s elevation to greatness, but its descent were on fire. Most of my classmates in to the darkest depths of depravity. These that building were burned to death alive. weapons are not a necessary evil; they are I saw all around me utter, unimaginable the ultimate evil. devastation. On the seventh of July this year, I was Processions of ghostly figures shuffled overwhelmed with joy when a great major- by. Grotesquely wounded people, they ity of the world’s nations voted to adopt were bleeding, burnt, blackened and swol- the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear len. Parts of their bodies were missing. Weapons. Having witnessed humanity at Flesh and skin hung from their bones. its worst, I witnessed, that day, humanity Some with their eyeballs hanging in their at its best. We hibakusha had been waiting hands. Some with their bellies burst open, for the ban for seventy-two years. Let this their intestines hanging out. The foul be the beginning of the end of nuclear stench of burnt human flesh filled the air. weapons. Thus, with one bomb my beloved city All responsible leaders will sign this was obliterated. Most of its residents were treaty. And history will judge harshly those civilians who were incinerated, vaporized, who reject it. No longer shall their abstract carbonized—among them, members of theories mask the genocidal reality of their my own family and 351 of my school- practices. No longer shall “deterrence” be mates. viewed as anything but a deterrent to dis- Whenever I remember Hiroshima, armament. No longer shall we live under a the first image that comes to mind is of mushroom cloud of fear. my four-year-old nephew, Eiji—his little To the officials of nuclear-armed na- body transformed into an unrecognizable tions—and to their accomplices under the melted chunk of flesh. He kept begging so-called “nuclear umbrella”—I say this: for water in a faint voice until his death Listen to our testimony. Heed our warn- released him from agony. To me, he came ing. And know that your actions are con- to represent all the innocent children of sequential. You are each an integral part of the world, threatened as they are at this a system of violence that is endangering very moment by nuclear weapons. Every humankind. Let us all be alert to the ban- second of every day, nuclear weapons en- ality of evil. danger everyone we love and everything To every president and prime minister we hold dear. We must not tolerate this of every nation of the world, I beseech insanity any longer. you: Join this treaty; forever eradicate the We hibakusha became convinced that threat of nuclear annihilation. we must warn the world about these apocalyptic weapons. Time and again, we © THE NOBEL FOUNDATION, shared our testimonies. But still some re- STOCKHOLM, 2017

The Ploughshares Monitor | Spring 2018 23 Join our work to advance international peace and security by making a tax-deductible donation today

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