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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
Reconfiguring a Region
RECONFIGURING A REGION Opportunities and Challenges in the Middle East Hosted by the Council on Middle East Studies at the MacMillan Center at Yale University September 26‐27, 2008 Luce Hall Auditorium, 34 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, CT Friday, September 26 1:00 pm Opening Remarks and Overview Marcia Inhorn William K. Lanman Jr. Professor of Anthropology and International Affairs Chair of the Council of Middle East Studies (CMES) at the MacMillan Center 1:30 pm Peacemaking in the 21st Century: have the terms changed? Shibley Telhami Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, University of Maryland and Senior Fellow, Saban Center at the Brookings Institution Daoud Kuttab Award winning Palestinian journalist, former Ferris professor of journalism at Princeton University and Executive Director of the Community Media Network. Avi Shlaim Professor of International Relations, University of Oxford, and Fellow, St. Antony’s College Moderator: Asli Bali, Assistant Professor, University of California Los Angeles School of Law and Research Affiliate, Yale University Law School 3:30 pm Testing the Grounds for East‐West Relations: LeBanon and Syria in Flux Paul Salem Director, Middle East Center, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Murhaf Jouejati Professor of Middle East Studies, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University and Adjunct Scholar, Middle East Institute Marwan Khawaja Director, Center for Research on Population and Health, American University in Beirut Moderator: Sulayman Dib‐Hajj, Research -
A Conversation with Raghida Dergham
TM: Welcome everybody to this sixth installment in the Harvard Kennedy School American University in Cairo series of conversations with Arab thought leaders on the 2020 U.S. election and America's changing role in the Middle East. I’m going to turn this over to my co-pilot Karim Haggag to introduce our distinguished guest for today but let me Just remind everybody what it is we are doing here. Each weeK we've been meeting with leading Arabs from the worlds of policy practice and ideas to explore their perceptions of the current season of politics in the United States and to get their sense of where they thinK the United States, the world's sole superpower, is heading, and particularly, what all of this means for the Middle East. So far in this series, we've interviewed some really interesting and extraordinary people, including prime minister Ayad Allawi, the Emirati intellectual AbdulKhaleq Abdulla, the Iraqi-Emirati Journalist Mina al-Oraibi, and these conversations will soon be available on our website and on podcast streaming services. We also have one more conversation. This is the penultimate conversation before we break for the winter, one more conversation next weeK with the Saudi editor of the al-Arabiya English, Mohammed Alyahya, and we hope that you'll Join us for that. Let me now turn it over to my co-pilot in this endeavor, Karim Haggag of the American University in Cairo School of Global affairs and Public Policy. Karim. KH: ThanK you, TareK, and thanK you everyone for Joining us for this afternoon's discussion. -
Annual Report
COUNCIL ON FOREIGN RELATIONS ANNUAL REPORT July 1,1996-June 30,1997 Main Office Washington Office The Harold Pratt House 1779 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10021 Washington, DC 20036 Tel. (212) 434-9400; Fax (212) 861-1789 Tel. (202) 518-3400; Fax (202) 986-2984 Website www. foreignrela tions. org e-mail publicaffairs@email. cfr. org OFFICERS AND DIRECTORS, 1997-98 Officers Directors Charlayne Hunter-Gault Peter G. Peterson Term Expiring 1998 Frank Savage* Chairman of the Board Peggy Dulany Laura D'Andrea Tyson Maurice R. Greenberg Robert F Erburu Leslie H. Gelb Vice Chairman Karen Elliott House ex officio Leslie H. Gelb Joshua Lederberg President Vincent A. Mai Honorary Officers Michael P Peters Garrick Utley and Directors Emeriti Senior Vice President Term Expiring 1999 Douglas Dillon and Chief Operating Officer Carla A. Hills Caryl R Haskins Alton Frye Robert D. Hormats Grayson Kirk Senior Vice President William J. McDonough Charles McC. Mathias, Jr. Paula J. Dobriansky Theodore C. Sorensen James A. Perkins Vice President, Washington Program George Soros David Rockefeller Gary C. Hufbauer Paul A. Volcker Honorary Chairman Vice President, Director of Studies Robert A. Scalapino Term Expiring 2000 David Kellogg Cyrus R. Vance Jessica R Einhorn Vice President, Communications Glenn E. Watts and Corporate Affairs Louis V Gerstner, Jr. Abraham F. Lowenthal Hanna Holborn Gray Vice President and Maurice R. Greenberg Deputy National Director George J. Mitchell Janice L. Murray Warren B. Rudman Vice President and Treasurer Term Expiring 2001 Karen M. Sughrue Lee Cullum Vice President, Programs Mario L. Baeza and Media Projects Thomas R. -
Islamism After the Arab Spring: Between the Islamic State and the Nation-State the Brookings Project on U.S
Islamism after the Arab Spring: Between the Islamic State and the nation-state The Brookings Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World U.S.-Islamic World Forum Papers 2015 January 2017 Shadi Hamid, William McCants, and Rashid Dar The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and policy solutions. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide in- novative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public. The conclusions and recommendations of any Brookings publication are solely those of its author(s), and do not reflect the views of the Institu- tion, its management, or its other scholars. Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings Brookings recognizes that the value it provides to any supporter is in its absolute commitment to quality, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW independence and impact. Activities supported by its Washington, DC 20036 donors reflect this commitment and the analysis and recommendations are not determined by any donation. www.brookings.edu/islamic-world STEERING n 2015, we returned to Doha for the views of the participants of the work- COMMITTEE the 12th annual U.S.-Islamic World ing groups or the Brookings Institution. MArtiN INDYK Forum. Co-convened annually by Select working group papers will be avail- Executive Ithe Brookings Project on U.S. Relations able on our website. Vice President with the Islamic World and the State of Brookings Qatar, the Forum is the premier inter- We would like to take this opportunity BRUCE JONES national gathering of leaders in govern- to thank the State of Qatar for its sup- Vice President ment, civil society, academia, business, port in convening the Forum with us. -
Us Foreign Policy and the Arab Spring
COMMENTARY | BY DR. H. AKIN ÜNVER* U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND THE ARAB SPRING s the uncertainty of the Arab Spring The widespread policy and media narrative of the continues, the debate on the future of Arab Spring is that the movement has been a sur- the movement and the U.S. role in it prise; emerging completely out of the blue, catching A grows into a colorful debate. As a part every political player flatfooted. ‘Even the regimes of this policy debate I was recently asked to review and administrations that were targeted by the Arab Foreign Policy Association’s Great Decisions episode Spring movements couldn’t see it coming’2 – or so it on the Arab Spring, featuring columnist Mona Elta- is argued. hawy and Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and also featuring comments While this shock is somewhat understandable among from key foreign policy heavyweights like Madeleine the regimes of the Middle East whose administra- Albright, General Michael Hayden, Robert Malley and tions never really established rigorous ‘academia- Carl Gershman.1 watch’ departments that follow the academic litera- ture and debate, I can’t really contextualize the sur- The debate in the episode is in many ways a small- prise in the American executive branch circles as al- scale projection of the overall U.S. policy debate on most every branch have one or more academia- the current and prospective U.S. role in the Arab watch programs staffed by quite capable analysts. Spring. It focused on the issues of U.S. -
Numbers in Parentheses and Further
FPA Town Hall Middle East Realignment: Great Decisions Lecture Series Wednesday, January 25, 2012 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM Featuring: Shibley Telhami, Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development, University of Maryland, College Park Shibley Telhami: Thanks very much. It's a real honor to be here and to start this great series this year. I know I've participated in the past in this series and it's really a terrific one. I'd like to offer you some reflection on the events that have swept through the Middle East in the past year. And I want to do it in perspective by offering you a comparison that might be helpful. A few months ago I was in China. I was asked to reflect not only on what international powers including China should be doing in a chan ging Middle East, but as you can imagine many Chinese were curious could it happen to us. And that question, could it happen to us, forced me to reflect on the events in the Middle East in a slightly different way. And so what I'd like to do today is off ering you sort of my conclusions in thinking about the comparison between the Middle East and China when it comes to social and political change. And in the process gain some lever over what's happening. Now let me start by giving you a little bit of context. I know that everyone around the world including rulers in the Middle East, including American leaders, including scholars, analysts, journalists who have watched the Middle East very closely were taken by surprise by the timing of the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, by the rapid pace of change that occurred. -
Ziadeh Lecture 2009Ziadeh Lecture 2009
ZIADEH LECTURE 2009 ZIADEH LECTURE 2009 Near Eastern Languages and Civilization The Farhat J. Ziadeh Distinguished Lecture in Arab and Islamic Studies Dear Friends and Colleagues, It is my distinct privilege to provide you with a copy of the seventh Farhat J. Ziadeh Distinguished Lecture in Arab and Islamic Studies, “Rethinking the ‘Muslim World’ Paradigm,” delivered by Shibley Telhami on April 22, 2009. The Ziadeh Fund was formally endowed in 2001. Since that time, with your sup- port, it has allowed us to strengthen our educational reach and showcase the most outstanding scholarship in Arab and Islamic Studies, and to do so always in honor of our dear colleague Farhat Ziadeh, whose contributions to the fields of Islamic law, Arabic language, and Islamic Studies are truly unparalleled. Farhat Ziadeh was born in Ramallah, Palestine, in 1917. He received his B.A. from the American University of Beirut in 1937 and his LL.B. from the University of London in 1940. He then attended Lincoln’s Inn, London, where he became a Barrister-at-Law in 1946. In the final years of the British Mandate, he served as a Magistrate for the Government of Palestine before eventually moving with his family to the United States. He was appointed Professor of Law and Islamic Stud- ies at Princeton University, where he taught until 1966, at which time he moved to the University of Washington. The annual lectureship in his name is a fitting tribute to his international reputation and his national service to the discipline of Arabic and Islamic Studies. The event and publication would not be possible without the generous support of many con- tributors including students, colleagues, friends, and above all Farhat and Suad themselves, and their family members. -
2019 Overview
2019 Overview Since its founding in 1981, the Middle East Policy Council (MEPC) has dedicated its programs and publications to improving American understanding of the politics and societies of the Arab world and the broader Middle East, and to promoting thoughtful discussion and debate about American interests and U.S. policies in the region. The Council has a strong reputation for supporting balanced, unbiased and intellectually rigorous discussion and analysis of the Middle East and of U.S. national interests there, and for promoting mutual understanding and partnership to strengthen U.S. relations with the peoples and countries in the region. Due to the wide distribution of our educational materials, and the broad media coverage of our programs, the Council’s impact is particularly strong beyond the Washington, DC, community and in the region. In 2019 MEPC achieved several new milestones in its core programs, special events, and outreach efforts. The Council’s quarterly Capitol Hill Conferences, quarterly journal Middle East Policy, TeachMideast program for students and educators, media engagement, and digital platforms all reached new heights in 2019. Following is an overview of MEPC’s 2019 activities and achievements. Capitol Hill Conferences The Council is unique in having a several-decades-long history of convening conferences dealing with the Middle East on Capitol Hill. These programs foster engagement with members of Congress and their staffs as well as executive-branch officials, opinion leaders, journalists, academics, diplomats, and members of the business community. Our four 2019 Capitol Hill Conferences – our 95th, 96th, 97th, and 98th such events – took place in the Russell Senate Office Building on January 16th, April 12th, July 19th, and October 25th. -
Yemen's Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious
The London School of Economics and Political Science Citizen Revolt for a Modern State: Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics sur la longue durée Tobias Thiel A thesis submitted to the Department of International History of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, 2015 Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 2 DECLARATION I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 98,247 words. Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 3 ABSTRACT 2011 became a year of revolt for the Middle East and North Africa as a series of popular uprisings toppled veteran strongmen that had ruled the region for decades. The contentious mobilisations not only repudiated orthodox explanations for the resilience of Arab autocracy, but radically asserted the ‘political imaginary’ of a sovereign and united citizenry, so vigorously encapsulated in the popular slogan al-shaʿb yurīd isqāṭ al-niẓām (the people want to overthrow the system). -
Syllabus - US-Middle East Foreign Policy (Johnson)
H-Diplo Syllabus - US-Middle East Foreign Policy (Johnson) Page published by Seth Offenbach on Saturday, September 20, 2014 History 3345: U.S.-Middle Eastern Relations (spring 2014) Prof. KC Johnson (Brooklyn College) This course explores U.S. relations with the nations of the Middle East from the 18th century through the present day. The focus is on developments since 1945. Topics include the impact of World War I and World War II on the U.S. role in the region; the development of the U.S.-Israeli alliance; the Cold War and the “Northern Tier” (Turkey, Greece, and Iran); economic and strategic concerns; domestic interest groups and the U.S. role in the region; the international impact of the Iranian revolution; the two Iraq wars; and modern-day events. Course Requirements: Final exam: 50% NSC-style group presentation: 30% Quizzes: 10% Participation: 10% Reading will consist of journal articles and various primary sources; the class counts as a “C” (transnational) class for History majors. Lectures & PowerPoints Course Schedule: January 28: The United States and the Decline of the Ottoman Empire (1784-1914) Ronald Bobroff, “Behind the Balkan Wars: Russian Policy toward Bulgaria and the Turkish Straits, 1912-13,”The Russian Review, pp. 76-95. Ömer Turan, “American Protestant Missionaries and Monastir, 1912-17,”Middle East Review, pp. 119-136. W. David Wrigley, “Germany and the Turco-Italian War, 1911-1912,” International Journal of Middle East Studies, pp. 313-338. February 4: World War I, Its Aftermath, & Middle East International Relations (1914-1923) Michael A. Reynolds, “Buffers, Not Brethren: Young Turk Military Policy in the First World War and the Myth of Panturanism,” Past & Present, pp. -
Barry Rubin's Legacy and the Study of U.S. Middle East Policy
BARRY RUBIN’S LEGACY AND THE STUDY OF U.S. MIDDLE EAST POLICY www.rubincenter.org /2015/07/barry-rubins-legacy-and-the-study-of-u-s-middle-east-policy/ Martin Kramer In the following transcript Dr. Martin Kramer recounts his friendship and long acquaintance with Prof. Barry Rubin and their shared interest in U.S. Middle East policy, noting Rubin’s deep concerns regarding the Obama administration in this regard. Also discussed is the administration’s view of the region, contending that it has an appeal to the traditional American realist view of the Middle East, whose adherents tend to favor a U.S. withdrawal from the region. This, Kramer contends, is what has enabled the administration’s approach to the region to gain wide currency in the United States, rather than any broad support for the leftist underpinnings of Obama’s worldview. It is part of a symposium entitled, “Regime Collapse and Sectarian War: Where is the Middle East Headed?” The symposium was held on March 15, 2015, to mark the launch of the newly named Rubin Center for International Affairs in honor of MERIA founder and former editor the late Prof. Barry Rubin. Editor’s Note: Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, the world has witnessed the collapse of a number of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and the consequent opening of an ungoverned space. Two formerly strong states, Iraq and Syria, have ceased to exist. The result has been the emergence of a series of paramilitary and political organizations–most based on ethnic and sectarian identity–all competing for control on the ground of what were once those states.