Did Obama Sign the Treaty with Iran
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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
Reconfiguring a Region
RECONFIGURING A REGION Opportunities and Challenges in the Middle East Hosted by the Council on Middle East Studies at the MacMillan Center at Yale University September 26‐27, 2008 Luce Hall Auditorium, 34 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, CT Friday, September 26 1:00 pm Opening Remarks and Overview Marcia Inhorn William K. Lanman Jr. Professor of Anthropology and International Affairs Chair of the Council of Middle East Studies (CMES) at the MacMillan Center 1:30 pm Peacemaking in the 21st Century: have the terms changed? Shibley Telhami Anwar Sadat Chair for Peace and Development, University of Maryland and Senior Fellow, Saban Center at the Brookings Institution Daoud Kuttab Award winning Palestinian journalist, former Ferris professor of journalism at Princeton University and Executive Director of the Community Media Network. Avi Shlaim Professor of International Relations, University of Oxford, and Fellow, St. Antony’s College Moderator: Asli Bali, Assistant Professor, University of California Los Angeles School of Law and Research Affiliate, Yale University Law School 3:30 pm Testing the Grounds for East‐West Relations: LeBanon and Syria in Flux Paul Salem Director, Middle East Center, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Murhaf Jouejati Professor of Middle East Studies, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University and Adjunct Scholar, Middle East Institute Marwan Khawaja Director, Center for Research on Population and Health, American University in Beirut Moderator: Sulayman Dib‐Hajj, Research -
A Conversation with Raghida Dergham
TM: Welcome everybody to this sixth installment in the Harvard Kennedy School American University in Cairo series of conversations with Arab thought leaders on the 2020 U.S. election and America's changing role in the Middle East. I’m going to turn this over to my co-pilot Karim Haggag to introduce our distinguished guest for today but let me Just remind everybody what it is we are doing here. Each weeK we've been meeting with leading Arabs from the worlds of policy practice and ideas to explore their perceptions of the current season of politics in the United States and to get their sense of where they thinK the United States, the world's sole superpower, is heading, and particularly, what all of this means for the Middle East. So far in this series, we've interviewed some really interesting and extraordinary people, including prime minister Ayad Allawi, the Emirati intellectual AbdulKhaleq Abdulla, the Iraqi-Emirati Journalist Mina al-Oraibi, and these conversations will soon be available on our website and on podcast streaming services. We also have one more conversation. This is the penultimate conversation before we break for the winter, one more conversation next weeK with the Saudi editor of the al-Arabiya English, Mohammed Alyahya, and we hope that you'll Join us for that. Let me now turn it over to my co-pilot in this endeavor, Karim Haggag of the American University in Cairo School of Global affairs and Public Policy. Karim. KH: ThanK you, TareK, and thanK you everyone for Joining us for this afternoon's discussion. -
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy August
THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY n AUGUST 2020 n PN84 PHOTO CREDIT: REUTERS © 2020 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. FARZIN NADIMI n April 22, 2020, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force (IRGC-ASF) Olaunched its first-ever satellite, the Nour-1, into orbit. The launch, conducted from a desert platform near Shahrud, about 210 miles northeast of Tehran, employed Iran’s new Qased (“messenger”) space- launch vehicle (SLV). In broad terms, the launch showed the risks of lifting arms restrictions on Iran, a pursuit in which the Islamic Republic enjoys support from potential arms-trade partners Russia and China. Practically, lifting the embargo could facilitate Iran’s unhindered access to dual-use materials and other components used to produce small satellites with military or even terrorist applications. Beyond this, the IRGC’s emerging military space program proves its ambition to field larger solid-propellant missiles. Britain, France, and Germany—the EU-3 signatories of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, as the 2015 Iran nuclear deal is known—support upholding the arms embargo until 2023. The United States, which has withdrawn from the deal, started a process on August 20, 2020, that could lead to a snapback of all UN sanctions enacted since 2006.1 The IRGC’s Qased space-launch vehicle, shown at the Shahrud site The Qased-1, for its part, succeeded over its three in April. stages in placing the very small Nour-1 satellite in a near circular low earth orbit (LEO) of about 425 km. The first stage involved an off-the-shelf Shahab-3/ Ghadr liquid-fuel missile, although without the warhead section, produced by the Iranian Ministry of Defense.2 According to ASF commander Gen. -
GVPT 409H, Spring 2017
GVPT 409H, Spring 2017 International Relations of the Middle East Mondays 2:00 – 4:45 p.m. Professor Shibley Telhami Tel. #: 301-405-6734 Office: 1105 Chincoteague Email: [email protected] Web-site: www.sadat.umd.edu Office hours: By appointment This seminar will evaluate major issues of the international relations of the Middle East and the American role and responses to these events. The seminar will focus on several post-Cold-War cases in American foreign policy, including the 1991 and 2003 Gulf wars, policy toward Iran, American mediation in the Arab-Israeli conflict, responses to the Arab Awakening, and broader issues such as regional reform and energy. Requirements: Beyond active participation in the seminar discussions, each student will be expected to prepare 2 short discussion essays to help kick off the seminar discussion of the readings. Please write your name and the week number at the top of your paper. In addition, each student will prepare a research paper (around 12-15 pages) on a related topic. The last three weeks of the seminar will focus on readings that are specifically relevant to the topics of the research papers. Readings: Readings are available in ELMS under the ‘Files’ tab, except for full books which are on Course Reserves at the library. Readings are also available for borrowing at the Sadat office (1105 Chincoteague) during regular business hours of 9:00 AM to 5:00 PM. If you encounter difficulty, feel free to contact me by email. You could also contact my administrative assistant, Brittany Kyser, at [email protected]. -
Iran and the Gulf Military Balance - I
IRAN AND THE GULF MILITARY BALANCE - I The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions FIFTH WORKING DRAFT By Anthony H. Cordesman and Alexander Wilner Revised July 11, 2012 Anthony H. Cordesman Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy [email protected] Cordesman/Wilner: Iran & The Gulf Military Balance, Rev 5 7/11/12 2 Acknowledgements This analysis was made possible by a grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation. It draws on the work of Dr. Abdullah Toukan and a series of reports on Iran by Adam Seitz, a Senior Research Associate and Instructor, Middle East Studies, Marine Corps University. 2 Cordesman/Wilner: Iran & The Gulf Military Balance, Rev 5 7/11/12 3 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................................. 5 THE HISTORICAL BACKGROUND ....................................................................................................................... 6 Figure III.1: Summary Chronology of US-Iranian Military Competition: 2000-2011 ............................... 8 CURRENT PATTERNS IN THE STRUCTURE OF US AND IRANIAN MILITARY COMPETITION ........................................... 13 DIFFERING NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES .............................................................................................................. 17 US Perceptions .................................................................................................................................... 17 Iranian Perceptions............................................................................................................................ -
Iran's Foreign and Defense Policies
Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies Updated May 8, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R44017 SUMMARY R44017 Iran’s Foreign and Defense Policies May 8, 2019 Iran’s national security policy is the product of many overlapping and sometimes competing factors such as the ideology of Iran’s Islamic revolution, perception of threats Kenneth Katzman to the regime and to the country, long-standing national interests, and the interaction of Specialist in Middle the Iranian regime’s factions and constituencies. Iran’s leadership: Eastern Affairs x Seeks to deter or thwart U.S. or other efforts to invade or intimidate Iran or to bring about a change of regime. x Has sought to take advantage of opportunities of regional conflicts to overturn a power structure in the Middle East that it asserts favors the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Sunni Muslim Arab regimes. x Seeks to enhance its international prestige and restore a sense of “greatness” reminiscent of ancient Persian empires. x Advances its foreign policy goals, in part by providing material support to regional allied governments and armed factions. Iranian officials characterize the support as helping the region’s “oppressed” and assert that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is instigating sectarian tensions and trying to exclude Iran from regional affairs. x Sometimes disagrees on tactics and strategies. Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and key hardline institutions, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), oppose any compromises of Iran’s national security core goals. Iran’s elected president, Hassan Rouhani, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif support Iran’s integration into regional and international diplomacy. -
Us Foreign Policy and the Arab Spring
COMMENTARY | BY DR. H. AKIN ÜNVER* U.S. FOREIGN POLICY AND THE ARAB SPRING s the uncertainty of the Arab Spring The widespread policy and media narrative of the continues, the debate on the future of Arab Spring is that the movement has been a sur- the movement and the U.S. role in it prise; emerging completely out of the blue, catching A grows into a colorful debate. As a part every political player flatfooted. ‘Even the regimes of this policy debate I was recently asked to review and administrations that were targeted by the Arab Foreign Policy Association’s Great Decisions episode Spring movements couldn’t see it coming’2 – or so it on the Arab Spring, featuring columnist Mona Elta- is argued. hawy and Shadi Hamid, director of research at the Brookings Doha Center and also featuring comments While this shock is somewhat understandable among from key foreign policy heavyweights like Madeleine the regimes of the Middle East whose administra- Albright, General Michael Hayden, Robert Malley and tions never really established rigorous ‘academia- Carl Gershman.1 watch’ departments that follow the academic litera- ture and debate, I can’t really contextualize the sur- The debate in the episode is in many ways a small- prise in the American executive branch circles as al- scale projection of the overall U.S. policy debate on most every branch have one or more academia- the current and prospective U.S. role in the Arab watch programs staffed by quite capable analysts. Spring. It focused on the issues of U.S. -
Zerohack Zer0pwn Youranonnews Yevgeniy Anikin Yes Men
Zerohack Zer0Pwn YourAnonNews Yevgeniy Anikin Yes Men YamaTough Xtreme x-Leader xenu xen0nymous www.oem.com.mx www.nytimes.com/pages/world/asia/index.html www.informador.com.mx www.futuregov.asia www.cronica.com.mx www.asiapacificsecuritymagazine.com Worm Wolfy Withdrawal* WillyFoReal Wikileaks IRC 88.80.16.13/9999 IRC Channel WikiLeaks WiiSpellWhy whitekidney Wells Fargo weed WallRoad w0rmware Vulnerability Vladislav Khorokhorin Visa Inc. Virus Virgin Islands "Viewpointe Archive Services, LLC" Versability Verizon Venezuela Vegas Vatican City USB US Trust US Bankcorp Uruguay Uran0n unusedcrayon United Kingdom UnicormCr3w unfittoprint unelected.org UndisclosedAnon Ukraine UGNazi ua_musti_1905 U.S. Bankcorp TYLER Turkey trosec113 Trojan Horse Trojan Trivette TriCk Tribalzer0 Transnistria transaction Traitor traffic court Tradecraft Trade Secrets "Total System Services, Inc." Topiary Top Secret Tom Stracener TibitXimer Thumb Drive Thomson Reuters TheWikiBoat thepeoplescause the_infecti0n The Unknowns The UnderTaker The Syrian electronic army The Jokerhack Thailand ThaCosmo th3j35t3r testeux1 TEST Telecomix TehWongZ Teddy Bigglesworth TeaMp0isoN TeamHav0k Team Ghost Shell Team Digi7al tdl4 taxes TARP tango down Tampa Tammy Shapiro Taiwan Tabu T0x1c t0wN T.A.R.P. Syrian Electronic Army syndiv Symantec Corporation Switzerland Swingers Club SWIFT Sweden Swan SwaggSec Swagg Security "SunGard Data Systems, Inc." Stuxnet Stringer Streamroller Stole* Sterlok SteelAnne st0rm SQLi Spyware Spying Spydevilz Spy Camera Sposed Spook Spoofing Splendide -
Yemen's Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious
The London School of Economics and Political Science Citizen Revolt for a Modern State: Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics sur la longue durée Tobias Thiel A thesis submitted to the Department of International History of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, 2015 Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 2 DECLARATION I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 98,247 words. Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 3 ABSTRACT 2011 became a year of revolt for the Middle East and North Africa as a series of popular uprisings toppled veteran strongmen that had ruled the region for decades. The contentious mobilisations not only repudiated orthodox explanations for the resilience of Arab autocracy, but radically asserted the ‘political imaginary’ of a sovereign and united citizenry, so vigorously encapsulated in the popular slogan al-shaʿb yurīd isqāṭ al-niẓām (the people want to overthrow the system). -
Syllabus - US-Middle East Foreign Policy (Johnson)
H-Diplo Syllabus - US-Middle East Foreign Policy (Johnson) Page published by Seth Offenbach on Saturday, September 20, 2014 History 3345: U.S.-Middle Eastern Relations (spring 2014) Prof. KC Johnson (Brooklyn College) This course explores U.S. relations with the nations of the Middle East from the 18th century through the present day. The focus is on developments since 1945. Topics include the impact of World War I and World War II on the U.S. role in the region; the development of the U.S.-Israeli alliance; the Cold War and the “Northern Tier” (Turkey, Greece, and Iran); economic and strategic concerns; domestic interest groups and the U.S. role in the region; the international impact of the Iranian revolution; the two Iraq wars; and modern-day events. Course Requirements: Final exam: 50% NSC-style group presentation: 30% Quizzes: 10% Participation: 10% Reading will consist of journal articles and various primary sources; the class counts as a “C” (transnational) class for History majors. Lectures & PowerPoints Course Schedule: January 28: The United States and the Decline of the Ottoman Empire (1784-1914) Ronald Bobroff, “Behind the Balkan Wars: Russian Policy toward Bulgaria and the Turkish Straits, 1912-13,”The Russian Review, pp. 76-95. Ömer Turan, “American Protestant Missionaries and Monastir, 1912-17,”Middle East Review, pp. 119-136. W. David Wrigley, “Germany and the Turco-Italian War, 1911-1912,” International Journal of Middle East Studies, pp. 313-338. February 4: World War I, Its Aftermath, & Middle East International Relations (1914-1923) Michael A. Reynolds, “Buffers, Not Brethren: Young Turk Military Policy in the First World War and the Myth of Panturanism,” Past & Present, pp. -
Barry Rubin's Legacy and the Study of U.S. Middle East Policy
BARRY RUBIN’S LEGACY AND THE STUDY OF U.S. MIDDLE EAST POLICY www.rubincenter.org /2015/07/barry-rubins-legacy-and-the-study-of-u-s-middle-east-policy/ Martin Kramer In the following transcript Dr. Martin Kramer recounts his friendship and long acquaintance with Prof. Barry Rubin and their shared interest in U.S. Middle East policy, noting Rubin’s deep concerns regarding the Obama administration in this regard. Also discussed is the administration’s view of the region, contending that it has an appeal to the traditional American realist view of the Middle East, whose adherents tend to favor a U.S. withdrawal from the region. This, Kramer contends, is what has enabled the administration’s approach to the region to gain wide currency in the United States, rather than any broad support for the leftist underpinnings of Obama’s worldview. It is part of a symposium entitled, “Regime Collapse and Sectarian War: Where is the Middle East Headed?” The symposium was held on March 15, 2015, to mark the launch of the newly named Rubin Center for International Affairs in honor of MERIA founder and former editor the late Prof. Barry Rubin. Editor’s Note: Since the beginning of the Arab Spring, the world has witnessed the collapse of a number of authoritarian regimes in the Middle East and the consequent opening of an ungoverned space. Two formerly strong states, Iraq and Syria, have ceased to exist. The result has been the emergence of a series of paramilitary and political organizations–most based on ethnic and sectarian identity–all competing for control on the ground of what were once those states.