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Europe and Its Neighbourhood 2017 Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management in the 21St Century Europe and its Neighbourhood 2017 Conflict prevention and crisis management in the 21st century Monday 20 November Follow us @CH_Events #CHEurope Chatham House has been the home of the Royal Institute of International Affairs for more than ninety years. Our mission is to be a world- leading source of independent analysis, informed debate and influential ideas on how to build a prosperous and secure world for all. In partnership with We would like to thank the conference sponsors for their generous support We would like to thank our media partner for their support of this conference Europe and its Neighbourhood Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management in the 21st Century Monday 20 November 2017, Royal Society of Arts, London Organized in partnership by Chatham House, International Crisis Group and Al Sharq Forum Wi-Fi Access Network: RWNET Password: 19867591 Security For security reasons it is important that attendees wear their badges at all times. Entrance to the conference room will be restricted to attendees displaying badges. Mobile phones Please turn your mobile phones to silent while in the conference room. The Chatham House Rule This conference is being held under the Chatham House Rule (unless otherwise stated). ‘When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.’ Twitter #CHEurope @CH_Events We would encourage delegates to tweet throughout the conference but to be mindful of the Chatham House rule when doing so. This means that you can tweet about the content of the discussion but are not to link content to the person who said it. This provides anonymity to speakers while encouraging openness and the sharing of information. Refreshments and lunch Refreshments and a buffet lunch will be served in the refreshment area on the ground floor. Should you have any special dietary requirements please make these known to the conference staff as soon as possible. Conference papers Speeches and presentations made available for circulation by the relevant speaker will be posted on our website after the conference. We will send a link to access these via a password after the event. Attendance list Chatham House does not distribute attendance lists. The attendance list is displayed in the registration area. If you would like us to circulate your contact details to other participants at the close of the conference, please leave your business card at the registration desk. Questionnaire We would be grateful if you would complete the delegate questionnaire and hand it in during the final session of the conference or at the registration desk on your departure. Questionnaires are entered into a prize draw at the end of the conference. Europe and its Neighbourhood Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management in the 21st Century Monday 20 November 2017, Royal Society of Arts, London Organized in partnership by Chatham House, International Crisis Group and Al Sharq Forum This conference will be held under the Chatham House Rule (unless otherwise indicated), which states: ‘When a meeting, or part thereof, is held under the Chatham House Rule, participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.’ Monday 20 November 0800 Registration and refreshments 0910 Welcome and chair’s opening remarks Quentin Peel, Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House 0920 Opening address Yanis Varoufakis, Professor of Economic Theory, University of Athens, and Minister of Finance, Greece (2015) 0935 Questions and discussion Session One | A Europe Distracted? Politics, the Future of the EU and What it Means for Europe’s Neighbourhood 0945 – 1100 As the raft of national elections in Europe comes to a conclusion and with Brexit negotiations well under way, this session will look at Europe’s capacity to meet common challenges and share the collective burden. Given Europe’s geography and other factors – including the demographics of its neighbourhood – failure to do so risks rebounding on the continent with considerable, and negative, consequences. Is the sense of crisis that prevailed in previous years still prominent? What is its precise nature? How can European and EU political leadership effectively address a series of foreign policy imperatives – relations with Russia; shoring up long-term stability in its neighbourhood – while being seemingly preoccupied with domestic concerns and showing an inclination towards retrenchment and greater nationalism? And from where will political leadership emerge in a changing Europe? Chair Quentin Peel, Associate Fellow, Europe Programme, Chatham House Speakers Wadah Khanfar, President, Al Sharq Forum Brad Staples, Chief Executive Officer, APCO Worldwide Mark Malloch-Brown, Chairman, Smartmatic, and Co-Chair, International Crisis Group Nora Müller, Executive Director, International Affairs, Körber-Stiftung 1100 – 1130 Refreshments Session Two | Europe and Migration 1130 – 1300 There is potentially no other issue that has done more to highlight the divisions in Europe than migration and how to manage its effects politically, economically and socially. Policy-makers, under considerable domestic pressure, have struggled to formulate strategies that fully contain the perceived security threats of inward migration or address its underlying causes. An effective response to what will likely prove a permanent phenomenon – mass movement northwards – in an atmosphere of immediate crisis is a critical challenge for Europe. With a number of EU initiatives up and running – among them the deal with Ankara and a range of initiatives in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel – this session will examine their effectiveness to date, the cost at which they have been implemented, and the prospects for Europe’s ability to contribute to the global target of safe, orderly and regular migration. Chair Paolo Magri, Executive Vice President and Director, Italian Institute for International Political Studies Speakers Louise Arbour, United Nations Special Representative for International Migration Tarik Yousef, Director, Brookings Doha Center Massimiliano Alvisini, General Manager, Europe and CIS Global Money Transfer, Western Union Dlawer Ala’Aldeen, Founding President, Middle East Research Institute 1300 – 1400 Lunch Concurrent breakout discussions – please select one from the three sessions below Discussion A | Russia and the West This will be held in the Great Room 1400 – 1515 This discussion will focus on the disagreement between Russia and the West, which appears to be irreconcilable as long as the current leadership in the Kremlin remains in power. With the economic and geopolitical pressures on the Kremlin likely to increase over the next five to ten years, what can be done to prepare for a potentially more harmonious post-Putin era in relations between Russia and the West? What connections need to be fostered, individually and institutionally? How will developments in Russia– US relations affect this? And what olive branches should be extended to an eventual successor to Putin? Chair James Nixey, Head, Russia and Eurasia Programme, Chatham House Speakers Andrey Sushentsov, Associate Professor, Moscow State Institute of International Relations, and Program Director, Valdai Discussion Club Ivan Krastev, Chairman, Centre for Liberal Strategies Kirk Bennett, retired US foreign service official Magdalena Grono, Program Director, Europe and Central Asia, International Crisis Group Discussion B | Europe and a Post-ISIS Levant This will be held in the Tavern Room 1400 – 1515 At present, Europe is a stuttering force in the Levant. However, once the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) reaches a conclusion, Europe’s role in fostering stability and supporting the reconstruction, reconciliation and peacekeeping effort will be key. This session will project beyond the current destruction and crisis in the Levant to explore the challenges that lie ahead in a potential post- ISIS future. Chair Ranj Alaaldin, Visiting Fellow, Brookings Institute, Doha Speakers Lina Khatib, Head, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House Michael Köhler, Director of Neighbourhood, DG for Development Cooperation, European Commission Lorenzo Kamel, Senior Fellow, Istituto Affari Internazionali Güney Yildiz, Visiting Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations Discussion C | North Africa: Egypt and Libya This will be held in the Prince Philip Room 1400 – 1515 This discussion will assess security challenges in the Mediterranean basin with a particular focus on Egypt and Libya, two vitally important countries in the region with a challenging local policy and security environment. Chair Claire Spencer, Senior Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House Speakers Lurdes Vidal Bertran, Director of the Arab and Mediterranean World Department, IEMed Issandr El Amrani, North Africa Project, International Crisis Group Tim Eaton, Research Fellow, Middle East and North Africa Programme, Chatham House 1515 – 1545 Afternoon refreshments Session Four | Power Dynamics in the Middle East: Strategic Relations and Influence in the Region 1545 – 1645 This discussion will focus on the balance of power between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states and Iran, with an assessment of the levers of control and influence, in terms of individuals
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