Yemen's Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious
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The London School of Economics and Political Science Citizen Revolt for a Modern State: Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics sur la longue durée Tobias Thiel A thesis submitted to the Department of International History of the London School of Economics for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy, London, 2015 Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 2 DECLARATION I certify that the thesis I have presented for examination for the PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely my own work other than where I have clearly indicated that it is the work of others (in which case the extent of any work carried out jointly by me and any other person is clearly identified in it). The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided that full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without my prior written consent. I warrant that this authorisation does not, to the best of my belief, infringe the rights of any third party. I declare that my thesis consists of 98,247 words. Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 3 ABSTRACT 2011 became a year of revolt for the Middle East and North Africa as a series of popular uprisings toppled veteran strongmen that had ruled the region for decades. The contentious mobilisations not only repudiated orthodox explanations for the resilience of Arab autocracy, but radically asserted the ‘political imaginary’ of a sovereign and united citizenry, so vigorously encapsulated in the popular slogan al-shaʿb yurīd isqāṭ al-niẓām (the people want to overthrow the system). In the Republic of Yemen, revolting citizens precipitated the resignation of perennial President ʿAlī ʿAbd Allāh Ṣāliḥ and demanded a fundamental reconfiguration of the prevailing social contract into a modern civil state (al- dawla al-madanīya al-ḥadītha). It is tempting to situate the root causes of these historic citizen revolts in the political inertia and moral bankruptcy of (neo)patrimonial Arab autocracies, their neoliberal economic policies, unemployment and social inequality, a youth bulge or new media technologies – all of which doubtlessly constituted crucial enabling factors. For the historian, however, the story runs much deeper than such ‘presentist’ interpretations suggest. Adopting a dynamic, process-oriented approach, this doctoral dissertation examines why and how the revolutionary mobilisation in 2011 transpired in relation to Yemen’s history of contentious politics. The narrative is built around the argument that the revolt was the result of three parallel, dynamic processes: the erratic and limited liberalisation process since Yemeni unification in 1990, the ‘oligarchisation’ of power since the 1994 war, and the ‘politics of calculated chaos’ – a paradoxical propensity of the Ṣāliḥ regime to foster disorder and dissent in order to position itself as the defender of republicanism and Yemeni unity. When regime changes in North Africa precipitated a shift in political opportunities, these processes culminated in the formation of a loose, temporary and heterogeneous opposition coalition that mounted a singular contentious challenge against the regime. Traditional powerbrokers, however, soon stifled this brief revolutionary moment as they politicised, co-opted and superseded the citizen movement. Loosely inspired by the histoire de la longue durée, the thesis contextualises the emergence and trajectory of the Yemeni citizen revolt in the political economy imperatives, deep-seated regional divisions and collective memories of past regimes and revolutions, such as the pre-Islamic South Arabian kingdoms, the millennial Zaydī Imamates or the twin revolutions of the 1960s. It thereby reveals some striking historical parallels to earlier episodes of contention in terms of longstanding demands, ideas and repertoires, which continue to constitute frameworks of reference for contemporary contentious politics. Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ............................................................................................... 3 Maps, Tables, Figures and Photos ........................................................... 5 Acknowledgements ................................................................................ 6 Note on Transliteration .......................................................................... 7 Introduction ......................................................................................... 8 Yemen’s Revolt in Regional and Historical Perspective ............................ 8 Research Focus, Significance and Originality ................................................................. 15 Chapter Overview ........................................................................................................... 16 Methodical Approach, Sources and Limitations ............................................................. 17 Literature Review: Social Movement Theory and Contentious Politics ......................... 21 Hardship Theories: From the ‘Madding Crowd’ to Relative Deprivation ................... 21 From Deprivation to Political Process: Resources, Opportunities and Frames ............ 23 From Structure to Relational Dynamics: Repertoires, Performances and Cycles ........ 25 Literature Review: The Arab Uprisings .......................................................................... 27 Spring, Awakening, Revolution: The Arab Struggle for Democracy? .......................... 28 The Restructuration of the Arab Public Sphere: Facebook/Twitter Revolutions ........ 34 Islamist Winter, Reformation of Islam or Post-Islamist Awakening? ............................ 40 Literature Review: Modern Yemen ................................................................................ 45 Beyond Qurʾān and Kalashnikov: State, Politics and Civil Society in Yemen .............. 45 The Other ‘Arab Spring’: Citizen Revolt in a Fragile, Tribal State? ............................ 52 A History of Yemen’s Citizen Revolt ...................................................... 57 Chapter 1: Configurations of Political Order sur la longue durée .............. 57 Ancient Trading Kingdoms: Geographical Foundations and Economic Divisions ........ 59 Medieval Islamic Dynasties: Transient Polities and Doctrinal Divisions ........................ 64 Foundations of Modern Statehood: Imperial Incursions and Political Divisions ............ 71 Regional Divisions, Structural Features and Historical Transformations ....................... 77 Chapter 2: The Politicisation of Contention and Birth of the Republics ..... 80 The Emergence of the Free Yemenis in a Changing Regional Environment ................. 81 The Revolution of 26 September 1962: From Palace Coup to Civil War ...................... 90 South Yemen’s Path to Independence and the 14 October 1963 Revolution .............. 109 Chapter 3: Contentious Politics in Republican Yemen ........................... 121 State-Building and Political Survival in the YAR and the PDRY ................................. 122 The Unification of the Two Yemens and the 1994 War ............................................... 139 The Dynamics of Democratisation: Civil Society and the Joint Meeting Parties ......... 149 The Post-War Era: Regime Oligarchisation and the Politics of Calculated Chaos ...... 156 Chapter 4: Yemen’s Citizen Revolt ...................................................... 166 Shifting Paradigms: The Tunisian Catalyst and the Revolt of the Youth ..................... 167 Revolutionary Honeymoon: Movement Formation, Demands and Repertoires ......... 172 The Regime Strikes Back: Ṣāliḥ’s Counterrevolution and Elite Fragmentation ........... 185 Yemen’s Revolutionary Moment, Collective Memory and Contentious Politics | 5 The Friday of Dignity and the Collapse of the Pillars of Regime Power ...................... 197 Hijacking the Revolution: From Polarisation to Militarisation ..................................... 204 The Architecture, Politics and Failure of an Exclusive Transition Process ................... 215 Conclusion ........................................................................................ 227 Bibliography ...................................................................................... 234 MAPS, TABLES, FIGURES AND PHOTOS Map 1: Ancient South Arabian Kingdoms, 950 BCE-100 CE. .......................................... 61 Map 2: Yemen’s Regional and Doctrinal Divisions, Major Tribes and Population. .......... 68 Map 3: The Federation of South Arabia and Eastern Protectorate around 1965. ........... 115 Map 4: The YAR and the PDRY, 1970-1990. ................................................................. 133 Map 5: The Republic of Yemen after 1990. ..................................................................... 146 Map 6: Tribal Allegiances in mid-March 2011. ................................................................ 195 Map 7: Areas of Control in Ṣanʿāʾ, 30 September 2011. .................................................. 207 Map 8: Envisioned Federal Regions according to NDC Outcomes. ................................ 222 Table 1: Heads of State in Yemen throughout the 20th Century. ..................................... 127 Table 3: Results of the 1993, 1997 and 2003 Parliamentary Elections. ........................... 154 Table 4: List of Major Coalitions in Ṣanʿāʾ.