energies Article Multi-State Reliability Assessment Model of Base-Load Cyber-Physical Energy Systems (CPES) during Flexible Operation Considering the Aging of Cyber Components Zhaojun Hao 1, Francesco Di Maio 1,∗ and Enrico Zio 1,2,3 1 Energy Department, Politecnico di Milano, 20156 Milan, Italy;
[email protected] (Z.H.);
[email protected] (E.Z.) 2 Centre de Recherche sur les Risques et les Crises (CRC), MINES ParisTech/PSL Université Paris, 75272 Sophia Antipolis, France 3 Department of Nuclear Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Seoul 17104, Korea * Correspondence:
[email protected] Abstract: Cyber-Physical Energy Systems (CPESs) are energy systems which rely on cyber compo- nents for energy production, transmission and distribution control, and other functions. With the penetration of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs), CPESs are required to provide flexible operation (e.g., load-following, frequency regulation) to respond to any sudden imbalance of the power grid, due to the variability in power generation by RESs. This raises concerns on the reliability of CPESs traditionally used as base-load facilities, such as Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs), which were not designed for flexible operation, and more so, since traditionally only hardware components aging and stochastic failures have been considered for the reliability assessment, whereas the contribution of the degradation and aging of the cyber components of CPSs has been neglected. In this paper, Citation: Hao, Z.; Di Maio, F.; Zio, E. we propose a multi-state model that integrates the hardware components stochastic failures with Multi-State Reliability Assessment the aging of cyber components, and quantify the unreliability of CPES in load-following operations Model of Base-Load Cyber-Physical under normal/emergency conditions.